OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC (OSG)
SIC breadcrumb: Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate > Insurance Carriers > SIC 6351 Surety Insurance
SEC company page: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=874501. Latest filing source: 0001628280-26-014653.
Informational only - descriptive public-record data, not investment advice.
Business
Read OSG's verbatim Item 1 Business section from its latest 10-K: Business.
Risk Factors
Read OSG's verbatim Item 1A Risk Factors from its latest 10-K: Risk Factors.
Selected Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | Unit | FY | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 251,222,000 | USD | 2025 | 2026-03-04 |
| Net income | -259,091,000 | USD | 2025 | 2026-03-04 |
| Assets | 2,223,317,000 | USD | 2025 | 2026-03-04 |
Financials
Annual standardized facts from SEC companyfacts as of latest extracted filing date 2026-03-04. Source: https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000874501.json. Derived margins, ratios, and free cash flow are computed from the extracted annual SEC facts.
| Metric | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 685,689,000 | 506,774,000 | 622,000,000 | 511,000,000 | 496,000,000 | 156,000,000 | 124,728,000 | 235,815,000 | 251,222,000 | ||||
| Net income | -256,678,000 | 74,843,000 | -329,000,000 | 186,000,000 | -216,000,000 | -437,000,000 | 522,120,000 | 4,951,000 | -556,088,000 | -259,091,000 | |||
| Diluted EPS | -0.85 | 1.64 | -7.25 | 3.99 | -4.69 | -9.47 | 11.48 | 0.18 | -11.96 | -5.93 | |||
| Operating cash flow | 70,368,000 | 36,948,000 | 762,000 | -52,283,000 | |||||||||
| Share buybacks | 14,217,000 | 4,510,000 | 11,698,000 | 29,942,000 | |||||||||
| Assets | 27,007,164,000 | 28,853,435,000 | 23,192,374,000 | 14,589,000,000 | 13,320,000,000 | 13,220,000,000 | 7,972,730,000 | 8,428,320,000 | 8,058,378,000 | 2,223,317,000 | |||
| Liabilities | 30,263,228,000 | 30,254,131,000 | 28,393,020,000 | 21,547,116,000 | 12,956,000,000 | 11,783,000,000 | 12,074,000,000 | 6,996,627,000 | 6,862,857,000 | 1,137,151,000 | |||
| Stockholders' equity | -2,008,536,000 | -3,812,975,000 | -3,907,527,000 | 1,381,148,000 | 1,592,000,000 | 1,477,000,000 | 1,080,000,000 | 1,361,656,000 | 798,364,000 | 715,790,000 | |||
| Cash and cash equivalents | 15,999,000 | 43,837,000 | 91,025,000 | 624,000,000 | 63,000,000 | 24,000,000 | 20,000,000 | 6,329,000 | 7,342,000 | 29,606,000 |
Ratios
| Metric | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net margin | -37.43% | 14.77% | -52.89% | 36.40% | -43.55% | 3.97% | -103.13% | ||||||
| Return on equity | -23.82% | 11.68% | -14.62% | -40.46% | 0.36% | -69.65% | -36.20% | ||||||
| Return on assets | -0.95% | -1.42% | 1.27% | -1.62% | -3.31% | 6.55% | 0.06% | -6.90% | -11.65% | ||||
| Liabilities / equity | 15.60 | 8.14 | 7.98 | 11.18 | 5.14 | 8.60 | 1.59 |
Industry Peer Context
Net margin peer context
ROE peer context
ROA peer context
Financial Charts
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2025 ended 2025-12-31; accession 0001628280-26-014653; filed 2026-03-04. Concept: Revenues. Source concepts: us-gaap:Revenues.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2025 ended 2025-12-31; accession 0001628280-26-014653; filed 2026-03-04. Concept: NetIncomeLoss. Source concepts: us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2025 ended 2025-12-31; accession 0001628280-26-014653; filed 2026-03-04. Concept: EarningsPerShareDiluted. Source concepts: us-gaap:EarningsPerShareDiluted.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2025 ended 2025-12-31; accession 0001628280-26-014653; filed 2026-03-04. Concept: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations. Source concepts: us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2025 ended 2025-12-31; accession 0001628280-26-014653; filed 2026-03-04. Concept: PaymentsForRepurchaseOfCommonStock. Source concepts: us-gaap:PaymentsForRepurchaseOfCommonStock.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2025 ended 2025-12-31; accession 0001628280-26-014653; filed 2026-03-04. Concept: Assets. Source concepts: us-gaap:Assets.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2025 ended 2025-12-31; accession 0001628280-26-014653; filed 2026-03-04. Concept: Liabilities. Source concepts: us-gaap:Liabilities.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2025 ended 2025-12-31; accession 0001628280-26-014653; filed 2026-03-04. Concept: StockholdersEquity. Source concepts: us-gaap:StockholdersEquity.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2024 ended 2024-12-31; accession 0000874501-25-000032; filed 2025-03-06. Concept: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue. Source concepts: us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue.
Quarterly
Quarterly standardized facts from SEC companyfacts as of latest extracted filing date 2026-05-06. Source: https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000874501.json.
| Quarter | End Date | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-Q1 | 2021-06-30 | 49,000,000 | -29,000,000 | -0.63 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2021-Q3 | 2021-09-30 | 51,000,000 | 17,000,000 | 0.35 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2022-Q1 | 2022-03-31 | 119,000,000 | 2,000,000 | 0.04 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2022-Q2 | 2022-06-30 | 86,000,000 | 5,000,000 | 0.11 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2022-Q3 | 2022-09-30 | 80,000,000 | 340,000,000 | 7.41 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2023-Q1 | 2023-03-31 | 58,000,000 | -33,000,000 | -0.73 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2023-Q2 | 2023-06-30 | 62,000,000 | -13,000,000 | -0.29 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2023-Q3 | 2023-09-30 | 74,000,000 | 66,000,000 | 1.41 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2024-Q1 | 2024-09-30 | 114,000,000 | -28,000,000 | -0.63 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2025-Q1 | 2025-03-31 | 62,756,000 | -44,737,000 | -1.22 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2025-Q2 | 2025-09-30 | 66,606,000 | -112,620,000 | -2.35 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2026-Q1 | 2026-03-31 | 104,170,000 | -6,851,000 | -0.13 | reported discrete quarter |
Quarterly Charts
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2026 ended 2026-03-31; accession 0001628280-26-031393; filed 2026-05-06. Concept: Revenues. Source concepts: us-gaap:Revenues.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2026 ended 2026-03-31; accession 0001628280-26-031393; filed 2026-05-06. Concept: NetIncomeLoss. Source concepts: us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2026 ended 2026-03-31; accession 0001628280-26-031393; filed 2026-05-06. Concept: EarningsPerShareDiluted. Source concepts: us-gaap:EarningsPerShareDiluted.
Macro Cross-References
- CPIAUCSL - Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average
- UNRATE - Unemployment Rate
- FEDFUNDS - Federal Funds Effective Rate
- CES0500000003 - Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private
- DFEDTARU - Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit
- DFEDTARL - Federal Funds Target Range - Lower Limit
- DGS3MO - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Month Constant Maturity
- DGS2 - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity
- DGS10 - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
- DGS30 - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity
- T10Y2Y - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
- CPILFESL - Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy
- CPIUFDSL - Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food
- CPIENGSL - Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Energy
- CUSR0000SAH1 - Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter
- PCEPI - Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index
- PCEPILFE - Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy: Chain-type Price Index
- PPIACO - Producer Price Index by Commodity: All Commodities
- T10YIE - 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
- U6RATE - Total Unemployed, Plus All Marginally Attached Workers Plus Total Employed Part Time for Economic Reasons
- PAYEMS - All Employees, Total Nonfarm
- CIVPART - Labor Force Participation Rate
- EMRATIO - Employment-Population Ratio
- UNEMPLOY - Unemployed
- CE16OV - Employment Level
- ICSA - Initial Claims
- JTSJOL - Job Openings: Total Nonfarm
- JTSQUR - Quits: Total Nonfarm
- GDPC1 - Real Gross Domestic Product
- A191RL1Q225SBEA - Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change from Preceding Period
- INDPRO - Industrial Production: Total Index
- TCU - Capacity Utilization: Total Index
- HOUST - New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units
- PERMIT - New Privately-Owned Housing Units Authorized in Permit-Issuing Places: Total Units
- RSAFS - Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade
- PCE - Personal Consumption Expenditures
- DSPIC96 - Real Disposable Personal Income
- PSAVERT - Personal Saving Rate
- M2SL - M2
- BOPGSTB - U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services: Balance
- MSPUS - Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States
- HSN1F - New One Family Houses Sold: United States
- RHORUSQ156N - Homeownership Rate in the United States
- TTLCONS - Total Construction Spending: Total Construction in the United States
- RRVRUSQ156N - Rental Vacancy Rate in the United States
- TOTALSL - Total Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized
- REVOLSL - Revolving Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized
- DRCCLACBS - Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Banks
- GDP - Gross Domestic Product
- GPDI - Gross Private Domestic Investment
- GCE - Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
- PCEC - Personal Consumption Expenditures
- NETEXP - Net Exports of Goods and Services
- GFDEBTN - Federal Debt: Total Public Debt
- GFDEGDQ188S - Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product
- FYFSD - Federal Surplus or Deficit
- FGRECPT - Federal Government Current Receipts
- FGEXPND - Federal Government: Current Expenditures
- MANEMP - All Employees, Manufacturing
- USCONS - All Employees, Construction
- USTRADE - All Employees, Retail Trade
- USFIRE - All Employees, Financial Activities
- USGOVT - All Employees, Government
- AWHAETP - Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private
- DGORDER - Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods
- NEWORDER - Manufacturers' New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft
- BUSINV - Total Business Inventories
- EXPGS - Exports of Goods and Services
- IMPGS - Imports of Goods and Services
- IR - Import Price Index (End Use): All Commodities
- PPIFIS - Producer Price Index by Commodity: Final Demand
Latest quarter (10-Q)
Latest 10-Q source: 0001628280-26-031393.
Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations ($ in thousands)
The objectives of our Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (“MD&A”) are to provide users of our consolidated financial statements with the following:
•A narrative explanation from the perspective of management of our financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, liquidity and certain other factors that may affect future results;
•Context to the unaudited consolidated financial statements; and
•Information that allows assessment of the likelihood that past performance is indicative of future performance.
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements in Part I, Item 1 and the matters described under Part II, Item 1A. Risk Factors in this Quarterly Report and under Item 1A. Risk Factors in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025. Refer to Item 1. Business and Note 1. Background and Business Description in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, for a description of our business and our key strategies to achieve our primary goal to maximize shareholder value.
Unless otherwise noted, this Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations relates solely to our continuing operations and does not include the operations of the Legacy Financial Guarantee business. See "Sale of AAC" below and "Sale of Ambac Assurance Corporation" in Note 5. Discontinued Operations of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025 for additional information about the divestiture of the Legacy Financial Guarantee business.
Organization of Information
MD&A includes the following sections:
| Page | |
|---|---|
| Strategies to Enhance Shareholder Value | 27 |
| Overview | 28 |
| Critical Accounting Estimates | 29 |
| Results of Operations | 29 |
| Liquidity and Capital Resources | 32 |
| Balance Sheet | 34 |
| Accounting Standards | 36 |
| U.S. Insurance Statutory Basis Financial Results | 36 |
| Non-GAAP Financial Measures | 36 |
Strategies to Enhance Shareholder Value
The Company's primary goal is to maximize long-term shareholder value through the execution of targeted strategies for its Insurance Distribution and Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance businesses.
Insurance Distribution and Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance strategic priorities include:
•Growing and expanding our Insurance Distribution business based on deep domain knowledge in specialty and niche classes of risk which generate attractive margins at scale. This will be achieved through establishing new businesses “de-novo,” organic growth and diversification, and select acquisitions supported by a centralized technology-led shared services offering;
•Growing our Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance business to generate underwriting profits from a diversified portfolio of commercial and personal liability risks accessed primarily through affiliated and non-affiliated program administrators. In addition, we may seek strategic relationships and/or partnerships with unaffiliated parties in order to expand our product offerings, access to reinsurance capacity and other business or operational advantages.
Octave continuously evaluates opportunities to acquire businesses and assets for its ID business, some of which may be material to our financial condition and operations and/or may involve raising capital to finance. There can be no assurance that we will agree to acquire any business or assets, or that we can obtain the necessary financing or complete any acquisition in a timely manner or at all.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | 27 | First Quarter 2026 Form 10-Q |
Table of Contents
OVERVIEW
($ in thousands)
The Company's continuing operations include two segments, financial highlights of which are summarized below along with other recent developments.
| Three Months Ended March 31, 2026 | Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reportable Segments | Reportable Segments | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consolidated | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consolidated | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Premiums placed | $ | 426,833 | $ | 426,833 | $ | 233,186 | $ | 233,186 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Gross premiums written | $ | 103,716 | 103,716 | $ | 86,915 | 86,915 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Net premiums written | 32,449 | 32,449 | 18,004 | 18,004 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total revenues | 25,299 | 78,526 | $ | 345 | 104,170 | 21,171 | 40,998 | $ | 587 | 62,756 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total expenses | 33,581 | 61,741 | 12,192 | 107,514 | 19,668 | 43,241 | 14,954 | 77,863 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Pretax income (loss) | (8,282) | 16,785 | (11,847) | (3,344) | 1,503 | (2,243) | (14,367) | (15,107) | |||||||||||||||||||
| EBITDA | (8,282) | 30,817 | (11,575) | 10,960 | 1,503 | 12,083 | (14,063) | (477) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA | 1,618 | 32,995 | (6,889) | 27,724 | 1,589 | 12,112 | (9,988) | 3,713 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) attributable to shareholders | (7,690) | $ | 13,165 | $ | (12,326) | (6,851) | 1,425 | $ | (3,397) | $ | (14,172) | (16,144) | |||||||||||||||
| EBITDA attributable to shareholders | (8,282) | 23,467 | (11,575) | 3,610 | 1,503 | 7,083 | (14,063) | (5,477) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA attributable to shareholders | $ | 1,618 | 25,340 | $ | (6,889) | 20,069 | $ | 1,589 | 7,112 | $ | (9,988) | (1,287) |
Sale of AAC
On September 29, 2025 the Company completed the sale of AAC. Refer to Note 3. Discontinued Operations of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and Note 5. Discontinued Operations of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, for further details on the sale of AAC.
For all periods leading up to the sale, AAC's results of operations and OSG's loss on sale are reported within Net income (loss) from discontinued operations before tax on the Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income (Loss).
Acquisition of ArmadaCorp
On October 31, 2025, the Company closed on the acquisition of ArmadaCorp for a purchase price of $250,000. The Company purchased all of the issued and outstanding limited liability company interests in ArmadaCorp from Sirius Re Holdings, Inc. and Sirius Acquisitions Holding Company, funded in part by $120,000 of loans obtained under new credit facilities. Refer to Note 4. Business Combinations of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, for further details on the acquisition of ArmadaCorp.
ArmadaCorp includes an MGA/U that focuses on supplemental health and benefit products for C-suite executives and other key talent. ArmadaCorp creates and distributes supplemental benefit solutions and insurance products. ArmadaCorp's differentiated product offering in the A&H market provides both line of business and product diversification to the Company, while also increasing exposure to non-correlated A&H business lines. ArmadaCorp also provides clients with tools to navigate the healthcare system, including services that help match individuals with physicians suited to their personal needs, and maintains a provider of third-party administration services for insurance carriers that distribute the benefit products and handle claims.
Pivix
Effective September 1, 2025, OSG's wholly owned subsidiary, Octave Partners, LLC ("Octave Partners"), exercised its option to convert its $3,500 convertible note investment in Pivix Specialty Insurance Services ("Pivix"), an excess and surplus lines MGA/U, into common stock. As a result, Octave Partners now has an approximately 74% controlling stake in Pivix when combined with its previous 17% minority equity interest, and includes Pivix in its consolidated financial statements.
Acquisitions of additional ownership of ID subsidiaries
During the first quarter of 2026 certain holders exercised their put options. See Note 1. Background and Business Description - Redeemable Noncontrolling Interest for further information.
SEC Final Rules on Climate Related Information
On March 6, 2024, the SEC adopted The Enhancement and Standardization of Climate-Related Disclosures for Investors ("Final Rule"), which will require registrants to disclose extensive climate-related information in their Form 10-K annual reports and registration statements. The Final Rule was scheduled to become effective May 28, 2024; however, the SEC has voluntarily stayed the rule’s effective date pending judicial review of legal challenges. In March 2025, the SEC ended its defense of the Final Rule, and in September 2025, the Eighth Circuit ordered that the litigation would be held in abeyance until such time that the SEC reconsiders or renews its defense of the Final Rule.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | 28 | First Quarter 2026 Form 10-Q |
Table of Contents
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
Octave's Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements have been prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”), which require the use of material estimates and assumptions. For a discussion of Octave's critical accounting policies and estimates, see “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates” in Part II, Item 7 “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” included in Octave's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025.
Results of Operations
Consolidated Results
A summary of our financial results is shown below:
| Three Months Ended March 31, | 2026 | 2025 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross premiums written | $ | 103,716 | $ | 86,915 | |||
| Net premiums written | 32,449 | 18,004 | |||||
| Revenues: | |||||||
| Net premiums earned | $ | 20,001 | $ | 15,678 | |||
| Commissions | 68,178 | 36,771 | |||||
| Servicing and other fees | 9,362 | 4,964 | |||||
| Program fees | 3,644 | 3,652 | |||||
| Investment income | 2,355 | 2,815 | |||||
| Other | 630 | (1,124) | |||||
| Expenses: | |||||||
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses | 19,679 | 10,496 | |||||
| Policy acquisition costs | 6,371 | 3,841 | |||||
| Commissions | 14,005 | 10,365 | |||||
| General and administrative | 53,155 | 38,531 | |||||
| Intangible amortization and depreciation | 12,214 | 9,176 | |||||
| Interest | 2,090 | 5,454 | |||||
| Total expenses | 107,514 | 77,863 | |||||
| Provision (benefit) for income taxes from continuing operations | (481) | (617) | |||||
| Net income (loss) from continuing operations | (2,863) | (14,490) | |||||
| Net income (loss) from discontinued operations, net of income taxes | — | (30,247) | |||||
| Net income (loss) | (2,863) | (44,737) | |||||
| Net (gain) loss attributable to noncontrolling interest | (3,988) | (1,654) | |||||
| Net income (loss) attributable to shareholders | $ | (6,851) | $ | (46,391) |
Octave's results for the three months ended March 31, 2026 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2025, were impacted by the following:
•Acquisitions within the ID segment have had a significant impa
[Excerpt truncated for page length; source filing is linked above.]
Latest 10-K MD&A
Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations ($ and £ in thousands)
The objectives of our Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (“MD&A”) are to provide users of our consolidated financial statements with the following:
•A narrative explanation from the perspective of management of our financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, liquidity and certain other factors that may affect future results;
•Context to the consolidated financial statements; and
•Information that allows assessment of the likelihood that past performance is indicative of future performance.
Unless otherwise noted, this Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations relates solely to our continuing operations and does not include the operations of our Legacy Financial Guarantee business. See "Sale of AAC" below and Note 5. Discontinued Operations of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements under Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information about the divestiture of the Legacy Financial Guarantee business in September 2025.
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements in Item 8 of this Report and the matters described under Item 1A. Risk Factors in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025. Refer to Part I, Item 1. Introduction - Description of the Business, for a description of our business and our key strategies to achieve our primary goal to maximize shareholder value.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | 25 | 2025 Form 10-K |
Table of Contents,
Organization of Information
MD&A includes the following sections:
| Page | |
|---|---|
| Strategies to Enhance Shareholder Value | 26 |
| Overview | 26 |
| Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates | 27 |
| Results of Operations | 30 |
| Liquidity and Capital Resources | 35 |
| Balance Sheet | 36 |
| Accounting Standards | 38 |
| Non-GAAP Financial Measures | 39 |
Strategies to Enhance Shareholder Value
The Company's primary goal is to maximize long-term shareholder value through the execution of targeted strategies for its Insurance Distribution and Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance businesses.
Insurance Distribution and Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance strategic priorities include:
•Growing and expanding our Insurance Distribution business based on deep domain knowledge in specialty and niche classes of risk which generate attractive margins at scale. This will be achieved through establishing new businesses “de-novo,” organic growth and diversification, and select acquisitions supported by a centralized technology-led shared services offering;
•Growing our Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance business to generate underwriting profits from a diversified portfolio of commercial and personal liability risks accessed primarily through affiliated and non-affiliated program administrators. In addition, we may seek strategic relationships and/or partnerships with unaffiliated parties in order to expand our product offerings, access to reinsurance capacity and other business or operational advantages.
OVERVIEW
($ in thousands)
The Company's continuing operations include two segments, financial highlights of which are summarized below along with other recent developments.
| Year Ended December 31, 2025 | Year Ended December 31, 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Total | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Total | ||||||||||||||||
| Premiums placed | $ | 951,781 | $ | 951,781 | $ | 493,372 | $ | 493,372 | |||||||||||||||
| Gross premiums written | $ | 360,449 | 360,449 | $ | 382,771 | 382,771 | |||||||||||||||||
| Net premiums written | 73,898 | 73,898 | 88,682 | 88,682 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Total revenues | 88,403 | 163,726 | (907) | 251,222 | 126,320 | 99,236 | 10,259 | 235,815 | |||||||||||||||
| Total expenses | 85,073 | 184,182 | 82,981 | 352,236 | 114,098 | 107,045 | 74,516 | 295,660 | |||||||||||||||
| Pretax income (loss) | 3,330 | (20,456) | (83,888) | (101,014) | 12,222 | (7,809) | (64,257) | (59,845) | |||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) | 2,956 | (15,353) | (83,406) | (95,803) | 10,469 | (6,881) | (62,509) | (58,921) | |||||||||||||||
| EBITDA | 3,330 | 36,918 | (80,670) | (40,422) | 12,222 | 19,653 | (62,393) | (30,518) | |||||||||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA | 3,330 | 22,411 | (80,670) | (54,929) | 5,136 | 19,901 | (16,394) | 8,643 | |||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) attributable to Octave shareholders | 2,956 | (17,954) | (83,406) | (98,404) | 10,471 | (7,244) | (62,509) | (59,282) | |||||||||||||||
| EBITDA attributable to Octave shareholders | 3,777 | 37,041 | (33,789) | 7,028 | 12,222 | 13,205 | (62,393) | (36,966) | |||||||||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA attributable to shareholders | 3,777 | 22,542 | (33,789) | (7,471) | 5,136 | 13,453 | (16,394) | 2,195 |
Sale of AAC
On September 29, 2025, the Company completed the sale of AAC pursuant to the June 4, 2024 stock purchase agreement (the "Purchase Agreement") with American Acorn Corporation (the “Buyer”), a Delaware corporation owned by funds managed by Oaktree Capital Management, L.P., pursuant to which OSG sold all of the issued and outstanding shares of common stock of AAC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of OSG, to Buyer for
$420,000 in cash (the "Sale"). The Buyer also made an additional payment to OSG in an amount of $4,300. In the Sale, Buyer acquired complete common equity ownership of AAC and all of its wholly owned subsidiaries, including Ambac Assurance UK Limited. In connection with and pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, OSG issued to Buyer a warrant exercisable for 5,092,707 shares of common stock, par value $0.01, of OSG. Refer to Note 5. Discontinued Operations of the Notes to the
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Consolidated Financial Statements under Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further details on the sale of AAC.
For all periods leading up to the Sale, AAC's results of operations and OSG's loss on sale are reported within Net income (loss) from discontinued operations before tax on the Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income (Loss). See Note 5. Discontinued Operations of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements under Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information.
Acquisition of ArmadaCorp
On October 31, 2025, the Company closed on the acquisition of ArmadaCorp for a purchase price of $250,000. The Company purchased all of the issued and outstanding limited liability company interests in ArmadaCorp from Sirius Re Holdings, Inc. and Sirius Acquisitions Holding Company, funded in part by $120,000 of loans obtained under new credit facilities. Refer to Note 4. Business Combination in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further details on the acquisition of ArmadaCorp.
ArmadaCorp includes an MGA/U that focuses on supplemental health and benefit products for C-suite executives and other key talent. ArmadaCorp creates and distributes supplemental benefit solutions and insurance products. ArmadaCorp's differentiated product offering in the A&H market provides both line of business and product diversification to the Company, while also increasing exposure to non-correlated A&H business lines. ArmadaCorp also provides clients with tools to navigate the healthcare system, including services that help match individuals with physicians suited to their personal needs, and maintains a provider of third-party administration services for insurance carriers that distribute the benefit products and handle claims.
Pivix
Effective September 1, 2025, OSG's wholly owned subsidiary, Octave Partners, LLC exercised its option to convert its $3,500 convertible note investment in Pivix, an excess and surplus lines MGA/U, into common stock. As a result, Octave Partners now owns approximately 74% of Pivix, when combined with its previous 17% minority equity interest, and includes Pivix in its consolidated financial statements.
Sale of Consolidated National Insurance Company
On January 12, 2024, Everspan Insurance Company entered into a Stock Purchase Agreement with Hagerty Insurance Holdings, Inc., to sell its ownership interests in Consolidated National Insurance Company ("CNIC"), which was one of Everspan's admitted carriers. The closing of this transaction occurred on September 1, 2024, resulting in a gain of approximately $7,504. The sale of CNIC has not had any adverse impact on the group's operations or growth prospects.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES AND ESTIMATES ($ in thousands)
Octave's Consolidated Financial Statements have been prepared in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in
the U.S. ("GAAP"). This section highlights accounting estimates management views as critical because they are most important to the portrayal of the Company's financial condition; and require management to make difficult and subjective judgments regarding matters that are inherently uncertain and subject to change. These estimates are evaluated on an ongoing basis considering historical developments, political events, market conditions, industry trends and other information. There can be no assurance that actual results will conform to estimates and that reported results of operations will not be materially adversely affected by the need to make future accounting adjustments to reflect changes in these estimates from time to time.
Management has identified the following critical accounting policies and estimates: (i) valuation of specialty property and casualty losses and loss adjustment expense reserves, (ii) business combinations including identification and valuation of intangible assets, and (iii) goodwill and intangible asset impairment analysis. Management has discussed each of these critical accounting policies and estimates with the Audit Committee, including the reasons why they are considered critical and how current and anticipated future events impact those determinations. Additional information about these policies can be found in Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K.
SPECIALTY PROPERTY AND CASUALTY LOSSES AND LOSS EXPENSE RESERVES
The specialty property and casualty insurance segment consists of Everspan-affiliated carriers. Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves represent management's estimate of the ultimate liability for unpaid losses and loss expenses for claims that have been reported and incurred but not yet reported ("IBNR") as of the balance sheet date.
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves by line of business were as follows as of December 31, 2025 and 2024:
| 2025 | Gross | Net | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Case | IBNR | Total | Case | IBNR | Total | ||||||||||||
| Commercial auto | $ | 67,484 | $ | 91,710 | $ | 159,194 | $ | 10,404 | $ | 12,657 | $ | 23,061 | ||||||
| Excess liability | 9,771 | 106,839 | 116,610 | 1,471 | 15,427 | 16,898 | ||||||||||||
| General liability | 7,534 | 56,062 | 63,596 | 2,376 | 10,196 | 12,572 | ||||||||||||
| Workers compensation | 9,569 | 8,229 | 17,798 | 9,569 | 8,229 | 17,798 | ||||||||||||
| Non-standard personal auto | 2,259 | 1,567 | 3,826 | 2,231 | 1,404 | 3,635 | ||||||||||||
| Professional liability | 6,753 | 34,094 | 40,847 | 467 | 2,383 | 2,850 | ||||||||||||
| Multi-peril / business owners (BOP) | 707 | 5,478 | 6,185 | 241 | 1,278 | 1,519 | ||||||||||||
| Surety | 1,128 | 11,106 | 12,234 | — | 94 | 94 | ||||||||||||
| ULAE (1) | — | 14,869 | 14,869 | — | 5,552 | 5,552 | ||||||||||||
| Other (2) | 11,411 | 13,420 | 24,831 | (102) | 391 | 289 | ||||||||||||
| Loss and Loss Expense Reserves | $ | 116,616 | $ | 343,374 | $ | 459,990 | $ | 26,657 | $ | 57,611 | $ | 84,268 |
(1) Unallocated loss adjustment expenses.
(2) Includes $23,530 and $0 total loss and loss expense reserves on a gross and net of reinsurance basis related to legacy liabilities obtained from the acquisitions of Providence Washington Insurance Company, Greenwood Insurance Company, and Consolidated Specialty Insurance Company. All legacy liabilities
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remain obligations of affiliates of the sellers through reinsurance and contractual indemnities.
| 2024 | Gross | Net | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Case | IBNR | Total | Case | IBNR | Total | ||||||||||||
| Commercial auto | $ | 66,092 | $ | 92,379 | $ | 158,471 | $ | 12,532 | $ | 16,188 | $ | 28,720 | ||||||
| Excess and general liability | 7,111 | 78,348 | 85,459 | 1,317 | 13,540 | 14,857 | ||||||||||||
| Workers compensation | 6,640 | 7,825 | 14,465 | 6,640 | 7,825 | 14,465 | ||||||||||||
| Non-standard personal auto | 10,393 | 2,296 | 12,689 | 10,241 | 1,943 | 12,185 | ||||||||||||
| Surety | 1,176 | 10,041 | 11,217 | — | — | — | ||||||||||||
| ULAE (1) | — | 12,238 | 12,238 | — | 6,578 | 6,578 | ||||||||||||
| Other (2) | 8,639 | 45,884 | 54,523 | 111 | 2,066 | 2,177 | ||||||||||||
| Loss and Loss Expense Reserves | $ | 100,051 | $ | 249,011 | $ | 349,062 | $ | 30,831 | $ | 48,139 | $ | 78,981 |
(1) Unallocated loss adjustment expenses.
(2) Includes $35,146 and $0 total loss and loss expense reserves on a gross and net of reinsurance basis related to legacy liabilities obtained from the acquisitions of Providence Washington Insurance Company, Greenwood Insurance Company, and Consolidated Specialty Insurance Company. All legacy liabilities remain obligations of affiliates of the sellers through reinsurance and contractual indemnities.
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves, evaluated at a program and line of business level, are estimated based upon experience and using a variety of actuarial methods and are subject to the impact of future changes in factors such as claim severity and frequency, underwriting and claims practices, changes in social and economic conditions, including the impact of inflation, legal and judicial developments, medical cost trends and upward trends in damage awards. The key assumptions used to arrive at the best estimate of loss reserves are the expected loss ratios and loss development factors representing reported and paid loss emergence patterns. Our actuarial methods may also rely on external data, such as industry loss ratios, loss development factors, or trend factors. The initial estimate for an accident year is generally based on an exposure-based method using the loss ratio projection method. The loss ratio projection method develops an initial estimate of ultimate claims and claim adjustment expenses for an accident year by multiplying earned premium for the accident year by a projected loss ratio. The projected loss ratio is determined by analyzing prior period experience, and adjusting for loss cost trends, rate level differences, a mix of business changes and industry loss ratios and other known or observed factors influencing the accident year relative to prior accident years.
The loss and loss adjustment expense reserves estimate may be based on a judgmental weighting of estimates produced from multiple estimation and analysis methods considered. The method(s) selected and weighted are those that are believed to produce the most accurate estimate at that particular evaluation date. The following estimation and analysis methods are principally used by the Company’s engaged independent actuarial specialists to estimate the ultimate cost of loss and loss adjustment expenses. These estimation and analysis methods are typically referred to as conventional actuarial methods.
•The paid loss development method assumes that the future change (positive or negative) in cumulative paid losses for a given cohort of claims will occur in a stable, predictable
pattern from year-to-year, consistent with the pattern observed in past cohorts.
•The case incurred development method is the same as the paid loss development method but is based on cumulative case-incurred losses rather than paid losses.
•The Bornhuetter-Ferguson method uses an initial estimate of ultimate losses for a given product line reserve component, typically expressed as a ratio to earned premium. The method assumes that the ratio of additional claim activity to earned premium for that component is relatively stable and predictable over time and that actual claim activity to date is not a credible predictor of further activity for that component. The method is used most often for more recent accident years where claim data is sparse and/or volatile, with a transition to other methods as the underlying claim data becomes more voluminous and therefore more credible.
The actuarial results provide a range of estimated losses by program and line of business including a low, central and high estimate of losses and loss expenses. At December 31, 2025, management selected the respective midpoint loss ratio between the actuarially determined central and high estimate for active and runoff programs and lines of business for each respective accident year when recording loss and loss adjustment expense reserves. In the prior year, management selected the high end of the respective actuarial range for programs in runoff, but due to (i) increased claims and actuarial oversight, (ii) further run-off of these programs and (iii) further evaluation of Everspan's aggregate reserve position it was determined to record both active and runoff programs at the midpoint loss ratio between the actuarial central and high estimate.
Since the reserves are based on estimates, the ultimate liability may be more or less than such reserves. Octave's actuarial evaluation at December 31, 2025, provided a range of losses incurred. Losses at the low end of the range would be below our recorded gross and net loss expense reserves by approximately $49,900 and $12,500, respectively at December 31, 2025, and losses at the high end of the range would exceed our recorded gross and net loss and loss adjustment expense reserve by approximately $14,600 and $2,200, respectively, at December 31, 2025. This range reflects low and high reasonable reserve estimates determined after using judgment to adjust the methods, factors, and assumptions selected within the internal reserve review. This approach produces a range of reasonable reserve estimates but does not represent a distribution of all possible outcomes.
Additionally, changes in assumptions such as loss development patterns and expected loss ratios can result in variability in actuarial estimates.
•For the loss development pattern we considered the impact of the reported incurred losses developing faster or slower than expected in our projections. For every 1.0% slower or faster the losses develop, we would expect our net indicated reserves to increase or decrease, respectively, by a range of 0.8% to 1.2%. If our reported loss development pattern was 5% slower, the net indicated reserves would be approximately 5% higher. If our reported loss development
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pattern was 5% faster, the net indicated reserves would be approximately 4.3% lower.
•For the expected losses we utilize industry benchmark loss ratios and internal pricing loss ratios applied to earned premium. For every 1.0% higher or lower the expected losses are, we would expect our net indicated reserves to increase or decrease by approximately 0.6%. If our expected losses were 5% higher, the net indicated reserves would be approximately 3.2% higher. If our expected losses were 5% lower, the net indicated reserves would be approximately 3.2% lower.
Consequently, final outcomes may be greater or less than the estimates. The extent of the range and variability of loss and loss adjustment expense reserves could be further impacted by future changes in factors discussed above. See “Risk Factors” in Part I, Item 1A in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
BUSINESS COMBINATIONS
The acquired entities comprising the ID segment primarily represent business combinations that were accounted for under the acquisition method of accounting. The acquisition method requires us to allocate the total consideration transferred for each acquisition to the assets acquired, liabilities assumed and noncontrolling interests ("NCI") based on their fair values as of the date of acquisition, including identifiable intangible assets. The allocation of the consideration utilizes significant estimates in determining the fair values of net assets acquired, which primarily consist of customer relationship intangible assets, but may include other finite-lived intangible assets including trade names or non-compete agreements. Measurement of the purchase balance sheet also requires valuation of redeemable NCI interests and nonredeemable NCI interests when applicable.
The valuation method used to determine customer relationship intangible assets was the multi-period excess earnings method "(MPEEM"), which quantifies the residual (or excess) cash flows generated by the intangible asset and discounts those cash flows to their present value. The significant assumptions used in determining the fair value of customer relationships include estimated revenue growth, customer attrition rates, operating margins, and discount rate. These estimates directly impact the amount of identified intangible assets recognized and the related amortization expense in future periods. As of December 31, 2025 and 2024, an aggregate of $463,785 and $333,562, respectively, of acquired intangible assets, net of accumulated amortization, was recorded on the Consolidated Balance Sheets, of which $446,835 and $323,720, respectively, represented customer relationships.
The valuation method used to determine the fair value of redeemable NCI interests and related put and call options was the Monte Carlo Simulation. The significant fair value assumptions used in the simulation include the exercise thresholds, EBITDA forecasts, discount rate and long-term growth rate. The valuation method to determine the fair value of nonredeemable NCI interests, which do not contain put or call options, was the discounted cash flow approach. The significant fair value assumptions used in the model include estimated long term revenue and expense forecasts and the discount rate.
The excess of purchase price over the fair value of assets acquired, liabilities assumed, and NCI interests (both redeemable and nonredeemable) is recorded as goodwill. We may refine our estimates and make adjustments to the assets acquired and liabilities assumed over a measurement period, not to exceed one year from the date of acquisition.
GOODWILL AND INTANGIBLE IMPAIRMENT ANALYSIS
Goodwill impairment evaluation
We perform the impairment assessment of goodwill at the reporting unit level within our ID segment on an annual basis or more frequently if circumstances indicate a possible impairment. We have determined that each of the entities acquired in the ID segment represent an individual reporting unit. The impairment test may first consider qualitative factors to determine whether it is more likely than not that the fair value of a reporting unit is less than its carrying amount. Examples of qualitative factors include, macroeconomic conditions, industry and market considerations, cost factors, overall financial performance, entity-specific events, events affecting reporting units and sustained changes in our stock price. If results of the qualitative assessment indicate a more likely than not determination or if we elect not to perform a qualitative assessment, a quantitative test is performed by comparing the estimated fair value using a weighted average of an income approach and market approach for each reporting unit to its carrying value. For the 2025 annual impairment evaluation, we elected to bypass the qualitative evaluation and perform quantitative tests on four reporting units containing $432,728 or 80% of the aggregate balance of goodwill as of December 31, 2025. For the remainder of our goodwill balance, including related to ArmadaCorp at year end, we performed a qualitative assessment. There was no goodwill impairment for any of the reporting units.
Under the quantitative assessment, the determination of fair value includes assumptions, which are considered Level 3 inputs, that are subject to risk and uncertainty. We consider different valuation approaches in the quantitative assessment. The income approach uses discounted cash flows which are dependent on subjective factors including the timing of future cash flows, the underlying margin projection assumptions, future growth rates and the discount rate. The market approach uses valuation multiples and is dependent on subjective factors including the determination of industry market multiples and EBITDA forecasts. These results are weighted to arrive at management's estimate of fair value for the reporting unit. Weight applied to each approach is based on the judgments about the extent that they reasonably reflect the value of the particular reporting unit that would be considered by a market participant. Additionally, to corroborate our estimated fair value, we perform a market capitalization reconciliation to determine if the implied control premium is reasonable.
For reporting units evaluated under the quantitative assessment, estimated fair values exceeded carrying values by between 1% and 19%. Market and income approaches were weighted 50% each, except for Octave Ventures where we applied 80% weight to the income approach, considering that the selected public companies used in the market approach do not adequately represent Octave Ventures's business as an MGA incubator
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under a Lloyds consortium structure. Fair values are particularly sensitive to the discount rate used in the income approach and the multiple used in the market approach. With no other changes to inputs or assumptions, a 1% increase in the discount rate would have produced an aggregate 11% reduction to the fair value of the tested reporting units. With no other changes to inputs or assumptions, a 20% decrease in the market multiples used would have produced an aggregate 4% reduction to the fair value of the tested reporting units. Changes to these or other assumptions or estimates in our fair value calculations or variances to any of the above subjective factors from what was expected, could impact our impairment analysis and result in a decline in fair value that may trigger future impairment charges.
Intangible asset impairment and useful life evaluation
We review acquired finite-lived intangible assets that are being amortized for impairment whenever events or changes in circumstance indicate that their carrying amount may not be recoverable. Qualitative factors considered include any adverse developments in regulation, unfavorable market conditions, or the extent to which an asset will be utilized. We do not believe there will be a material change in the estimates or assumptions used to calculate impairments or useful lives of amortizable intangible assets. However, if actual results are not consistent with our estimates and assumptions, we may be exposed to an acceleration of amortization or impairment losses that could be material.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following is a discussion and analysis of the Company’s financial condition and results of operations for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, including year-to-year comparisons between 2025 and 2024. Year-to-year comparisons between 2024 and 2023 have been omitted from this Form 10-K, but may be found in “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Part II, Item 7 of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024.
Net loss from continuing operations for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, was $95,803 and $58,921, respectively. The net loss variance in 2025 compared to 2024 was primarily driven by: (i) higher restructuring costs of $15,524, (ii) higher intangible amortization of $20,442, (iii) higher interest expense on short-term debt of $9,261, and (iv) lower foreign exchange gains of $6,717, partially offset by lower acquisition costs of $19,213, investment impairments of $3,416, gains on sale of subsidiaries of $7,504, and higher ID revenue due to acquisitions and continuing growth of the business.
A summary of our financial results is shown below:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues: | ||||||||||
| Commissions | $ | 143,381 | $ | 92,023 | $ | 51,281 | ||||
| Servicing and other fees | 20,419 | 6,353 | — | |||||||
| Net premiums earned | $ | 67,232 | $ | 99,005 | $ | 51,911 | ||||
| Program fees | 14,322 | 13,506 | 8,437 | |||||||
| Investment income | 10,647 | 14,448 | 13,159 | |||||||
| Other | (4,780) | 10,480 | (60) | |||||||
| Expenses: | ||||||||||
| Commissions | 37,037 | 40,876 | 29,465 | |||||||
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses | 47,193 | 72,626 | 36,712 | |||||||
| Policy acquisition costs | 15,790 | 23,666 | 10,557 | |||||||
| General and administrative | 191,624 | 129,166 | 66,985 | |||||||
| Intangible amortization and depreciation | 41,952 | 19,947 | 5,230 | |||||||
| Interest | 18,640 | 9,379 | — | |||||||
| Provision (benefit) for income taxes from continuing operations | (5,211) | (924) | (989) | |||||||
| Net income (loss) from continuing operations | (95,803) | (58,921) | (23,232) | |||||||
| Net income (loss) from discontinued operations, net of income taxes | (163,288) | (497,167) | 28,183 | |||||||
| Net income (loss) | (259,091) | (556,088) | 4,951 | |||||||
| Less: net (gain) loss attributable to NCI | (2,601) | (361) | (1,319) | |||||||
| Net income (loss) attributable to shareholders | $ | (261,692) | $ | (556,449) | $ | 3,632 |
Octave's results for the year ended December 31, 2025 compared to the year ended December 31, 2024, were impacted by the following:
•Acquisitions within the ID segment have had a significant impact on the comparability of results between 2025 and 2024.
–Effective October 31, 2025, Octave acquired 100% of ArmadaCorp.
–Effective September 1, 2025, Octave exercised its option to convert its $3,500 convertible note investment in Pivix and now owns approximately 74%.
–Effective July 31, 2024, Octave acquired 60% of Octave Ventures.
•The sale of AAC on September 29, 2025. AAC's results, including Octave's loss on the sale of AAC are reported within discontinued operations. Refer to Note 1. Background and Business Description and Note 5. Discontinued Operations of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further details on the Sale and results for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024. As a result of the Sale, Octave repaid all of the outstanding debt used to acquire Octave Ventures, amounting to $150,000, and purchased AAC's co-investment in Octave Ventures of $62,000. Concurrent with the Sale, OSG entered into a number of transactions as discussed herein, including transactions intended to lower the long term run-rate of corporate operating expenses.
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The following describes the consolidated results of continuing operations of Octave and its subsidiaries for 2025 and 2024.
Gross Premiums Written. Gross premiums written decreased $(22,322) for the year ended December 31, 2025, and increased $109,484 for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to the comparable prior year periods, as shown below.
| Year Ended December 31, | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Premiums Written | $ | 360,449 | $ | 382,771 | $ | 273,287 |
Changes are primarily driven by the number and size of active programs. As of December 31, 2025 and 2024 we had 25 and 27 programs, respectively, across approximately ten lines of business, with a focus on the casualty sector and minimal property exposure. The decline in active programs from 2024 was a strategic decision to improve capital allocation and return on capital.
Net Premiums Written. Net premiums written decreased $(14,784) for the year ended December 31, 2025, and increased $8,858 for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to the comparable prior year periods, as shown below:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Premiums Written | $ | 73,898 | $ | 88,682 | $ | 79,824 |
The decline in net premiums written will typically track gross premiums written but will also be impacted by the percentage of each program Everspan retains. Everspan typically retains up to 30% of each program. For the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, Everspan retained 20.5% and 23.2% of gross written premiums, respectively. The reduced retention rate in 2025 compared to 2024 was primarily driven by the managed non-renewal of certain programs.
Net Premiums Earned. Net premiums earned for the year ended December 31, 2025, decreased by $(31,773) or (32.1)% and increased by $47,094 or 90.7% for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to the comparable prior year periods, as shown below.
| Year Ended December 31, | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Premiums Earned | $ | 67,232 | $ | 99,005 | $ | 51,911 |
The decrease in net premiums earned in 2025 compared to 2024 was driven by the changes in net premiums written and the managed non-renewal of certain programs.
Commission Income and Commission Expense. The ID business earns commission income as a percentage of the premium it places with insurance, reinsurance and other capacity providers. In some cases, the ID business will also earn profit commissions based on the underwriting performance of the business that it underwrites. Profit commissions by their nature may be volatile whereas base commissions tend to be more steady.
| Year Ended December 31, | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Commissions | $ | 130,982 | $ | 82,992 | $ | 46,792 | ||||
| Profit commissions | 12,400 | 9,031 | 4,489 | |||||||
| Commission expense | 37,037 | 40,876 | 29,465 |
Commission income was $130,982 and $82,992 for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. The increase was driven by organic growth in premiums placed as well as the acquisition of Octave Ventures in July 2024 and ArmadaCorp in October of 2025. Commission expense will largely track changes in gross commission.
Profit commissions were $12,400 and $9,031 for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. The increase in profit commissions was due to the acquisitions of Octave Ventures and ArmadaCorp, offset by contraction at Xchange.
For the December 31, 2025 and 2024 commission expense was $37,037 and $40,876, respectively, representing approximately 26% and 43% of commission income in each respective period. The decrease in commission expense compared to commission income in 2025 relative to 2024 is primarily a result of the acquisition of Octave Ventures. Because third parties are paid commissions to obtain business, the majority of Octave Ventures's commission income is reported net of any distribution and commission expenses, due to the nature of its program agreements. The majority of the ID Segment's other MGA/Us report their commission income gross of distribution and commission expenses.
Program Fees. Program fee revenues were $14,322 and $13,506 for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. Program fee revenues represent the recognition of ceding commissions in excess of direct acquisition costs received from reinsurers and minimum fees received from MGA/Us until related programs reach certain levels of premium ceded. Program fees are charged as a percentage of premiums ceded to reinsurers as a component of total ceding commissions. The growth is a function of premiums ceded to reinsurers; driven by changes in direct premiums written.
Net Investment Income. Net investment income consists of interest income, including the net effect of discount accretion and premium amortization, from fixed maturity securities classified as available-for-sale and net gains (losses) on pooled investment funds which are reported under the equity method. These funds and certain other investments are reported in Other investments on the Consolidated Balance Sheets. For further information about investment funds held, refer to Note 6. Investments to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Net investment income was $10,647 and $14,448 for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. The decline is due to lower Corporate short-term yields and lower average investment balances resulting primarily from assets used for the acquisition of Octave Ventures, partially offset by the impact of higher average investment balances in the Insurance Distribution segment and at Everspan.
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Servicing and Other Fees. Servicing and Other Fees increased $14,066 for the year ended December 31, 2025. Servicing and Other Fees include revenues earned for providing operational and administrative services to the Lloyd's syndicates managed by Octave Ventures, and its Managing Agency (Statera Managing Agency Limited). This was previously managed by a third party managing agency and as of December 31, 2025 it is now managed by Statera Managing Agency Limited. Other policy and brokerage fees are also included relating to the MGAs within Octave Ventures. Servicing and other fees also include program administration (TPA), health connections, set-up and renewal fees related to ArmadaCorp.
Other Revenues. Other revenues include (i) net investment gains (losses) on securities sold or called, net of investment impairment charges; (ii) foreign exchange gains (losses) from the ID segment; and (iii) net gains on derivative contracts, including FX forward contracts used to manage currency risk within the ID segment. Other revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, was $(4,780) compared to $10,480 in the prior year. The decrease in Other revenue resulted primarily from higher foreign exchange losses from the ID segment, together with certain items impacting the 2024 results including gains on FX forward contracts used by Octave to mitigate currency risk leading up to the acquisition of Octave Ventures, a gain on Everspan's sale of one of its shell insurance companies and its licenses, and a realized gain on conversion of notes receivable to a preferred stock position at Corporate. The decrease was partially offset by reduction in Corporate investment impairment charges.
Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses (Benefit). Losses and loss adjustment expenses decreased $25,433 for the year ended December 31, 2025, compared to December 31, 2024. The decrease was primarily due to the reduction in premium related to non-renewal of certain programs. Everspan's loss and loss adjustment expense ("LAE") ratio was 70.2% and 73.4% for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively, inclusive of prior years' adverse development of 7.4% and 4.7%, respectively. Excluding prior period development, Everspan's loss and LAE ratio were 62.8% and 68.6%, respectively. The shift in the overall loss and LAE and the loss and LAE ratios, excluding prior period development, was primarily due to the managed non-renewal of certain programs.
Prior year adverse development was driven primarily by higher excess liability and commercial auto loss experience in the prior accident years for year ended December 31, 2025, whereas the year ended December 31, 2024, included higher commercial auto loss experience in the prior accident years and a higher selected loss ratio for programs in runoff. Additionally, in 2024 management set loss reserves for programs that are runoff at the high end of the actuarial loss range, given these programs can experience greater loss volatility than active programs. This change to set runoff reserves at the high end of the range resulted in a 1 percentage point increase in the loss and LAE ratio for the year ended December 31, 2024.
Everspan's loss and LAE ratio will vary based on changes in the lines of business underwritten and retained, loss reserving policy, loss development trends, inflation rates and other economic and industry specific factors.
The decrease in the loss and LAE ratio for the year ended December 31, 2025, compared to December 31, 2024, additionally had further improvement driven by benefits within acquisition costs as a result of sliding scale commission arrangements with program partners. Certain Everspan programs were structured to include sliding scale commission arrangements within a loss ratio range. These sliding scale arrangements help to partially mitigate net income volatility. Such benefit reduced the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segments expense ratio by 2.1% and 0.8% for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024.
Everspan's insurance risk is primarily concentrated via casualty insurance, primarily related to commercial auto, workers compensation, excess and general liability lines of business. Everspan continuously monitors its diversification in lines of business and manages its concentration via MGA/U program oversight of policy limits and premium caps and via reinsurance to third parties. Loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred may be adversely impacted by increasing economic and social inflation, particularly within the commercial auto business. The impact of inflation on ultimate loss reserves is difficult to estimate, particularly in light of recent disruptions to the judicial system, supply chain, labor markets and the potential impact of the imposition of trade tariffs. In addition, going forward, we may not be able to offset the impact of inflation on our loss costs with sufficient price increases. The estimation of loss reserves may also be more difficult during extreme events, such as a pandemic, or during the persistence of volatile or uncertain economic conditions, due to, amongst other reasons, unexpected changes in behavior of judicial decisions, claimants and policyholders, including fraudulent reporting of exposures and/or losses. Additionally, Everspan may be subject to disputes with policyholders regarding the scope and extent of coverage offered under Everspan's policies or may be subject to disputes which may lead to liabilities beyond those which are anticipated or reserved, including liabilities in excess of policy limits. Due to the inherent uncertainty underlying loss reserve estimates, the final resolution of the estimated liability for loss and loss adjustment expenses will likely be higher or lower than the related loss reserves at the reporting date. In addition, our estimate of losses and loss expenses may change. These additional liabilities or increases in estimates, or a range of either, could vary significantly from period to period.
General and Administrative Expenses ("G&A"). The following table provides a summary of G&A expenses for the periods presented:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compensation | $ | 109,847 | $ | 64,346 | $ | 48,468 | ||||
| Non-compensation | 81,777 | 64,820 | 18,517 | |||||||
| Total | $ | 191,624 | $ | 129,166 | $ | 66,985 |
The increase in 2025 compared to 2024 was primarily due to the following:
•Higher compensation costs of $45,501 were primarily due to (i) the acquisition of ArmadaCare as well we the launch of new (de-novo) MGAs such as Pivix (ii) the inclusion of a full year of Octave Ventures in 2025 compared to a partial year in 2024, and (iii) severance and accelerated
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | 32 | 2025 Form 10-K |
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incentive compensation expenses incurred in relation to the sale of AAC.
•Higher non-compensation costs of $16,957, driven primarily by higher restructuring costs of $15,524 in relation to the sale of AAC, the inclusion of a full year of Octave Ventures in 2025 and the acquisition of ArmadaCorp in 2025, partially offset by decrease in Corporate costs associated with acquisitions of $17,906.
Intangible Amortization and Depreciation. Intangible amortization and depreciation for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024 was $41,952 compared to $19,947 in the prior year. The increases are due to intangible amortization for the year ended December 31, 2025, related to the ArmadaCorp and Octave Ventures acquisition.
Interest Expense. Interest expense for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024 was $18,640 and $9,379, respectively, due to higher average debt outstanding in 2025. Octave borrowed under a credit facility to partially fund the Octave Ventures acquisition in the third quarter of 2024. This debt was repaid on September 29, 2025. Octave borrowed under a new credit facility, at a lower rate, on October 31, 2025, to partially fund the ArmadaCorp acquisition.
Provision for Income Taxes. The provision for income tax (benefit) for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, was $(5,211) and $(924), respectively. The tax benefit recognized in the current year includes current tax expense associated with Octave Ventures operations in the U.K. offset by deferred tax benefits related to the recognition of deferred tax assets generated by Octave Ventures operations in the U.S. and amortization of finite-lived intangible assets associated with Octave Ventures operations both in the U.K. and U.S.
At December 31, 2025, the OSG had approximately $1,690,842 of U.S. federal net ordinary operating loss carryforwards.
Results of Operations by Segment
| Insurance Distribution | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year Ended December 31, | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
| Premiums placed | $ | 951,781 | $ | 493,372 | $ | 230,606 | |||||
| Commission income | $ | 143,381 | $ | 92,023 | $ | 51,281 | |||||
| Commission expense | 37,037 | 40,876 | 29,465 | ||||||||
| Net commissions | 106,344 | 51,147 | 21,816 | ||||||||
| Servicing and other fees | 20,419 | 6,353 | — | ||||||||
| Net investment income | 1,514 | 787 | 64 | ||||||||
| Other income (expense) | (1,588) | 73 | 200 | ||||||||
| Expenses: | |||||||||||
| General and administrative | 89,771 | 38,707 | 10,598 | ||||||||
| EBITDA | 36,918 | 19,653 | 11,483 | ||||||||
| Interest Expense | 18,640 | 9,379 | — | ||||||||
| Depreciation | 690 | 481 | 42 | ||||||||
| Intangible amortization | 38,044 | 17,602 | 4,152 | ||||||||
| Pretax income (loss) | $ | (20,456) | $ | (7,809) | $ | 7,289 | |||||
| Octave's stockholders equity (1) | $ | 757,850 | $ | 218,344 | $ | 102,473 |
(1) Represents the share of Octave stockholders equity for each subsidiary within the ID segment, including intercompany eliminations.
Octave's ID companies are compensated for their services primarily by commissions paid by insurance carriers for underwriting, structuring and/or administering polices and, in some cases, the managing of claims under an agency agreement. Commission revenues are usually based on a percentage of the premiums placed. In addition, we are eligible to receive profit sharing contingent commissions ("Profit Commissions") based on the underwriting results of certain programs underwritten by our MGA/Us. These profit commissions may fluctuate from period to period resulting in some variability in revenue and earnings.
The ID segment placed premiums for were approximately $951,781 for the year ended December 31, 2025, up $458,409 or 93% as compared to the year ended December 31, 2024. The increase was primarily driven by the inclusion of a full year of Octave Ventures, the acquisition of ArmadaCorp and organic growth.
The ID pretax loss for the year ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, was $(20,456) and $(7,809), respectively, up $(12,647) or 162%, compared to year ended December 31, 2024. The increase was primarily driven by higher intangible amortization and interest expense related to acquisitions.
The ID EBITDA for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024 was $36,918 and $19,653, respectively, up $17,265 or 88%. The increase was primarily driven by increase in commission income due to acquisitions and organic growth.
ID businesses may experience seasonal impacts on their revenues and net results. For example, Employer Stop Loss business and other A&H lines produce the majority of their business in January and July, which results in revenue and earnings concentrations in the first and third quarters of each
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | 33 | 2025 Form 10-K |
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calendar year. Seasonal impacts on the ID segment, and therefore Octave's results, may increase or decrease and shift over time depending on the relative growth of certain classes of business as well as the impact of acquisitions.
G&A Expenses G&A expenses for the year ended December 31, 2025, were $89,771 compared to the year ended December 31, 2024, of $38,707 For the current year, compensation expense increased by $35,408 and non-compensation expenses increased by $15,656 primarily due to the addition of the operating expenses of ArmadaCorp and Octave Ventures, which were acquired in October 2025 and July 2024, respectively, and the consolidation of Pivix in September 2025.
| Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year Ended December 31, | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
| Gross premiums written | $ | 360,449 | $ | 382,771 | $ | 273,287 | |||||
| Net premiums written | 73,898 | 88,682 | 79,824 | ||||||||
| Revenues: | |||||||||||
| Net premiums earned | $ | 67,232 | $ | 99,005 | $ | 51,911 | |||||
| Investment income | 6,811 | 6,400 | 3,795 | ||||||||
| Program fees | 14,322 | 13,506 | 8,437 | ||||||||
| Other income | 38 | 7,409 | (42) | ||||||||
| Total | 88,403 | 126,320 | 64,101 | ||||||||
| Expenses: | |||||||||||
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses | 47,193 | 72,626 | 36,712 | ||||||||
| Policy acquisition costs | 15,790 | 23,666 | 10,557 | ||||||||
| General and administrative | 22,090 | 17,806 | 16,449 | ||||||||
| Net (gain) loss attributable to NCI interest | — | 2 | (1) | ||||||||
| Pretax income (loss) | $ | 3,330 | $ | 12,222 | $ | 383 | |||||
| EBITDA | 3,330 | $ | 12,222 | $ | 383 | ||||||
| Retention Ratio (1) | 20.5 | % | 23.2 | % | 29.2 | % | |||||
| Loss and LAE Ratio (2) | 70.2 | % | 73.4 | % | 70.7 | % | |||||
| Expense Ratio (3) | 35.0 | % | 28.2 | % | 35.8 | % | |||||
| Combined Ratio (4) | 105.2 | % | 101.6 | % | 106.5 | % | |||||
| Octave's stockholders equity (5) | $ | 140,278 | $ | 133,266 | $ | 121,678 |
(1)Retention ratio is defined as net premiums written divided by gross premiums written.
(2)Loss and LAE ratio is defined as losses and loss expenses incurred divided by net premiums earned.
(3)Expense Ratio is defined as acquisition costs and general and administrative expenses, reduced by program fees, divided by net premiums earned.
(4)Combined ratio is defined as Loss and LAE ratio plus Expense Ratio.
(5)Represents Octave stockholders equity in the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment, including intercompany eliminations.
The Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment has grown significantly since underwriting its first program in May 2021. Twenty-five programs were authorized to issue policies as of December 31, 2025, a decrease compared to twenty-seven as of December 31, 2024. Program counts and premium production, including gross and net premiums written and net premiums earned declined in 2025 from 2024 primarily due to
managed non-renewals of certain programs to improve capital allocation and return on capital. Partially offsetting this decline in premium production is lower losses and LAE and lower policy acquisition costs. Additionally, EBITDA and pre-tax income has decreased as compared to year ended December 31, 2024. This is primarily due to the gain on sale of CNIC recognized in 2024 of approximately $7,500. The combined ratio increased in 2025 versus 2024 due to higher general and administrative expenses as Everspan continues to build out its staffing and operations combined with the impact of the lower net premiums earned base. Lower premiums earned results in greater sensitivity to changes in losses and expenses.
G&A Expenses G&A costs increased for the year ended December 31, 2025, relative to the year ended December 31, 2024, primarily due to net growth in Everspan's staffing, outside services and expanded business operations.
Corporate
Corporate consists of our holding company and shared services operations ("Corporate"). Corporate provides financial, technological and human resources to Octave's two segments and is responsible for the function of OSG as a publicly-traded company.
Corporate revenues totaled $(907) and $10,259 for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.
| Year Ended December 31, | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment income | 2,323 | 7,261 | 9,298 | ||||
| Net derivative gains (losses) | — | 3,910 | (279) | ||||
| Other | (3,230) | (912) | 61 | ||||
| Total revenue | (907) | 10,259 | 9,080 |
Investment income decreased for the year ended December 31, 2025, relative to year ended December 31, 2024, primarily due to lower average invested assets due to the use of funds for the (i) acquisition of Octave Ventures in the third quarter 2024, (ii) the acquisition of ArmadaCorp in the fourth quarter of 2025, and (iii) the repurchase of our stock in October 2025, as well as lower yields on short-term invested assets in 2025.
Both years included write-downs in the carrying value on investments in preferred securities that are carried at cost less impairment.
Corporate revenues in 2024 included net derivative gains related to FX hedging of the purchase price of Octave Ventures, together with realized gains from the conversion and early settlement of certain convertible notes, including make-whole payments, which are included in Other revenue.
Corporate expenses were $82,981 for the year ended December 31, 2025, up $8,465 from the year ended December 31, 2024. Corporate expenses for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024 included compensation expenses of $33,841 and $25,791, respectively, and non-compensation expense of $49,140 and $48,725, respectively. Compensation expense is higher mostly due to (i) impact of incentive costs for $5,079 related to compensation restructuring and (ii) severance costs of $4,878. Non-compensation expenses were relatively flat but included increases of $6,481 from an early lease termination payment,
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | 34 | 2025 Form 10-K |
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restructuring fees of $15,712 from the sale of AAC and disposal of software of $1,017, offset by decreases in acquisition costs of $18,282 and franchise tax expense of $1,323.
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Holding Company Liquidity
OSG is a holding company organized as a legal entity separate and distinct from its operating subsidiaries. OSG’s liquidity is primarily dependent on its net assets, excluding the operating subsidiaries that it owns, totaling $76,484 and $119,214 as of December 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively, and secondarily on investment income, distributions, tax and expense-sharing payments and third-party capital (e.g. from credit facilities and equity issuance).
| December 31, | 2025 | 2024 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and short-term investments | $ | 49,471 | $ | 74,423 | |||
| Other investments (1) | 25,124 | 28,117 | |||||
| Other net assets | 1,889 | 16,674 | |||||
| Total | $ | 76,484 | $ | 119,214 |
(1)Includes minority equity investments in insurance services businesses of $17,517 and $20,618 at December 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively.
The decrease in OSG net assets, excluding its equity investments in subsidiaries, during the 2025 was driven primarily by net cash outflows from operating expenses, contributions to subsidiaries, open market stock repurchases, and the purchase of ArmadaCorp, partially offset by net proceeds from the sale of AAC, interest income, and distributions received from subsidiaries.
•OSG acquired ArmadaCorp for $250,000 which was funded by cash and $120,000 of loans from a global bank.
•OSG received $420,000 of proceeds from the sale of AAC, plus an additional $4,300, less applicable legal, advisory and other expenses incurred in connection with the Sale.
•In connection with the 2024 Octave Ventures acquisition, Octave Partners incurred $150,000 of debt funded by a global bank. Upon the closing of the sale of AAC in 2025, OSG repaid the $150,000 loan.
•OSG's acquisition of Octave Ventures was partially funded by AAC's co-investment in the amount of $62,000. Upon the close of the AAC sale in 2025, OSG purchased AAC's co-investment at a price resulting in a 7.5% rate of return per annum to AAC.
•OSG repurchased 3.4 million of its common shares for $29,942 under a share repurchase program.
Everspan's ability to make future dividend payments will mostly depend on its future profitability relative to its capital needs to support growth. Everspan did not pay dividends to OSG in 2025 and is not expected to pay dividends in 2026; however, it does make tax payments to OSG in accordance with a Tax Sharing Agreement. For the year ended December 31, 2025, Everspan paid $2,014 in tax payments to OSG.
Octave Partners does not have any regulatory restrictions on its ability to make distributions. OSG received distributions from
Octave Partners of $15,363 and $10,739 during the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.
OSG's principal uses of liquidity are: (i) the payment of G&A expenses, including costs to explore opportunities to grow and diversify Octave, (ii) making capital investments to acquire, grow and/or capitalize new and/or existing businesses, including through the acquisition of noncontrolling interests ("NCI") as a result of the exercise of outstanding puts and/or calls, and (iii) making investments in technology and other operational infrastructure to improve the operational effectiveness and efficiency of our business and to support its growth. Funding puts, calls and other capital commitments would require payments from OSG, the magnitude of which will ultimately depend on the performance of the underlying businesses, whether or not the puts or calls are exercised, FX rates and other considerations. OSG would expect the funding requirements for such obligations not to exceed approximately $50,000 in 2026, but such amount could be higher based on those considerations outlined above. In 2026 OSG intends to fund potential NCI puts using additional debt. OSG is seeking to fund future NCI puts and calls using internal funding, but may also seek additional debt or other funding sources. OSG may satisfy certain put/call obligation using common equity for up to 35% of the amount of the exercise value. The need for additional capital to fund future NCI puts and calls will depend on a number of considerations, including distribution levels from subsidiaries, the potential for additional acquisitions, other capital investment demands, and stock repurchases. In addition, the value of the NCI puts and calls at the time of exercise will also have an impact on our need for additional funding. OSG may also provide short-term financial support, primarily in the form of loans, to its operating subsidiaries to support their operating requirements.
In the opinion of the Company’s management the net assets and expected funding sources of OSG are currently sufficient to meet OSG’s current liquidity requirements. However, events, opportunities, acquisitions, the exercise of puts and calls, the need to refinance outstanding debt, share repurchases or other circumstances could require OSG to seek additional capital (e.g. through loans or the issuance of debt, equity, convertible or hybrid securities).
In connection with the ArmadaCorp acquisition on October 31, 2025, the Company borrowed $120,000 in the form of a five-year $100,000 term loan and a five-year $20,000 revolving credit facility (together, the "Credit Facilities"). The Credit Facilities include covenants that restrict our ability to manage capital resources by requiring maintenance of certain financial ratios and restricting indebtedness, liens, mergers, sales of assets, investments, restricted payments (such as dividends), and affiliate transactions, among other restrictions. The Credit Facility also requires the prepayment of the borrowings thereunder with proceeds of certain asset sales, recovery events, issuances of indebtedness and indemnity payments. These requirements will impact our financial and operational flexibility while the Credit Facility remains in place. See Note 12. Debt to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Annual Report for further detail about the Credit Facilities.
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| Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | 35 | 2025 Form 10-K |
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Operating Companies' Liquidity
Insurance:
Sources of liquidity for Everspan are primarily through funds generated from premiums, reinsurance recoveries, fees, investment income and maturities and sales of investments.
Cash provided from these sources is used primarily for claim payments, loss expenses, acquisition costs, operating expenses, reinsurance payments and purchases of securities and other investments.
Everspan manages its liquidity risk by projecting cash flows and maintaining specified levels of cash and short-term investments at all times. It is the opinion of the Company’s management that the insurance subsidiaries’ near term liquidity needs will be adequately met from the sources described above.
Insurance Distribution:
The liquidity requirements of our ID subsidiaries are met primarily by funds generated from commission (both base and profit commissions) and fees. Base commissions and fees are generally received monthly, whereas profit commissions are received only if the business underwritten is profitable. Cash provided from these sources is used primarily for commissions paid to sub-producers, operating expenses and distributions to OSG and other members.
Cash Held at Banks
Octave maintains cash and investment accounts, including premium trust accounts, at depository institutions in amounts in excess of the limits insured by the FDIC and in countries other than the U.S. Octave's cash balances held at banks were $68,440 as of December 31, 2025, including cash of Octave's insurance distribution subsidiaries held in regional banks of $33,263 as of December 31, 2025.
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement Discussion
The following table summarizes the net cash flows for continuing operations for the periods presented.
| Year Ended December 31, | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash provided by (used in): | ||||||||||
| Operating activities | $ | (52,283) | $ | 762 | $ | 36,948 | ||||
| Investing activities | 199,936 | (166,371) | (26,679) | |||||||
| Financing activities | (126,298) | 194,219 | (10,986) | |||||||
| Net cash flow | $ | 21,355 | $ | 28,610 | $ | (717) |
Operating Activities for Continuing Operations
Operating cash flows during the year ended December 31, 2025 were adversely impacted by transaction-related costs for the acquisition of Octave Ventures and the sale of AAC, together with interest payments on Octave Partners's short-term borrowing.
Future operating cash flows will primarily be impacted by net premium collections, investment coupon receipts, fee and net commission revenues, operating expenses, net claim and loss expense payments and debt interest payments.
Investing Activities for Continuing Operations
Investing activities for the year ended December 31, 2025 included net cash used in the ArmadaCorp acquisition of $217,940 and net cash proceeds from the sale of AAC of $407,300.
Financing Activities for Continuing Operations
Financing activities for the year ended December 31, 2025 included net borrowings of $117,470 under five year credit facilities for the ArmadaCorp acquisition and concurrent with the AAC Sale, repayment $150,000 of short term borrowing, the repurchase of AAC's co-investment used to partially fund the purchase of Octave Ventures for $67,309 and share repurchases of $29,942.
Financing activities for the year ended December 31, 2024 included borrowing of $147,000 under a short-term credit facility, receipt of a $62,000 co-investment from AAC to fund the acquisition of Octave Ventures and share repurchases of $11,698.
Future financing cash flows will be primarily impacted by paydowns and maturities of debt; share repurchases; acquisitions of noncontrolling interest shares; other capital management activity and distributions to noncontrolling interests.
Cash Flows from Discontinued Operations
Cash flows pertaining to discontinued operations are reported separately on the Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows. The primary driver of the cash flows from discontinued operations was the continued runoff of the financial guarantee business, including the collection of premiums, interest income and subrogation, and the payment of claims, expenses and foreign taxes. Since the agreement to sell AAC, the operations were substantially separated and with the Sale having been completed in September 2025, reporting periods after September 30, 2025 will exclude any discontinued operations activity.
BALANCE SHEET
Total assets decreased by approximately $5,835,061 from December 31, 2024 to $2,223,317 at December 31, 2025 (decrease of $6,267,200 related to discontinued operations, partially offset by an increase of $432,139 from continuing operations).
Total liabilities decreased by approximately $5,725,706 from December 31, 2024 to $1,137,151 as of December 31, 2025 (decrease of $5,887,685 relating to discontinued operations, partially offset by an increase of $161,979 from continuing operations).
As of December 31, 2025, total stockholders’ equity was $833,185, compared with total stockholders’ equity of $996,119 at December 31, 2024. This decrease was primarily the result of the net loss attributable to common stockholders for the year ended December 31, 2025, of $261,692, decreases to Octave Ventures nonredeemable NCI of $44,023 , adjustments to the redemption value of redeemable NCI of $7,899, and cost of shares repurchased of $29,942. The decrease was partially offset by translation gains of $176,166, including changes associated with Discontinued Operations of $158,505.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | 36 | 2025 Form 10-K |
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Discontinued Operations:
Assets and Liabilities Held-for-Sale. Assets held-for-sale decreased to $0 at December 31, 2025, from $6,267,200 at December 31, 2024. The decrease results from the completion of the sale of AAC. Liabilities held-for-sale decreased to $— at December 31, 2025 from $5,887,685 at December 31, 2024 due to the completion of the sale of AAC. Refer to Note 5. Discontinued Operations in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Continuing Operations:
The following discusses changes in assets, liabilities and stockholders' equity as of December 31, 2025 compared to December 31, 2024.
Octave's acquisition of ArmadaCorp impacted the comparability of the balance sheet between December 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024. Refer to Note 4. Business Combination to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for details of the assets and liabilities acquired at the acquisition date.
Assets:
Investment Portfolio
Octave's investment portfolio is managed under established guidelines designed to meet the investment objectives of the Everspan Group and OSG. Everspan's fixed maturity and short-term investment portfolio had a weighted average credit rating of AA and AA- at December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. The ID businesses investments are limited to cash sweep products, treasuries, certificates of deposit and money market funds. Refer to "Description of the Business — Investments and Investment Policy" in this Annual Report on Form 10-K located in Part I. Item 1, for further description of Octave's investment policies and applicable regulations.
The following table summarizes the composition of Octave’s investment portfolio, at carrying value at December 31, 2025 and 2024:
| December 31, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consolidated | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consolidated | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed maturity securities | $ | 122,141 | $ | — | $ | 153 | $ | 122,294 | $ | 157,020 | $ | — | $ | — | $ | 157,020 | |||||||||||||||
| Short-term | 71,287 | 35,812 | 39,344 | 146,443 | 35,727 | 27,435 | 64,439 | 127,601 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other investments | — | — | 24,971 | 24,971 | — | 177 | 28,117 | 28,294 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total investments | $ | 193,428 | $ | 35,812 | $ | 64,468 | $ | 293,708 | $ | 192,247 | $ | 27,612 | $ | 92,556 | $ | 312,915 |
Octave invests in various asset classes in its fixed maturity securities portfolio. Refer to Note 6. Investments to the Consolidated Financial Statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8 for information about the composition of fixed maturity securities and other investments by asset class.
Premium Receivables. Octave's premium receivables increased to $75,085 at December 31, 2025, from $57,222 at December 31, 2024. As further discussed in Note 8. Insurance Contracts to the Consolidated Financial Statements, in this Annual Report on Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8, the increase is primarily due to growth in certain programs within the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance Segment. All premium receivables are in a payment currency of U.S. Dollars.
Commission and Fees Receivable Octave's commission and fee receivables increased to $86,549 at December 31, 2025, from $55,377 at December 31, 2024. The increase is primarily due to growth in the ID Segment, specifically at Octave Ventures as well as the inclusions of ArmadaCorp and Pivix.
Reinsurance Recoverable on Paid and Unpaid Losses. Octave has reinsurance in place pursuant to surplus share treaties and facultative agreements. As of December 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024, reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses were $436,092 and $306,191, respectively, increasing due to continued production in the Specialty P&C Insurance Segment. To minimize its exposure to losses from reinsurers, Octave (i) monitors the financial condition of its reinsurers; (ii) is entitled to receive collateral from its reinsurance counterparties under certain reinsurance contracts; and (iii) has certain cancellation rights that can be exercised in the event of rating agency downgrades of a reinsurer (among other events and
circumstances). Those reinsurance counterparties that do not currently post collateral are well-capitalized, highly rated, authorized capacity providers. Octave benefited from letters of credit and collateral amounting to approximately $88,732 from its reinsurers at December 31, 2025. Additionally, while legacy liabilities from Specialty P&C acquisitions were fully ceded to certain reinsurers, Everspan also benefits from an unlimited, uncapped indemnity from the respective sellers to mitigate any residual risk to these reinsurers.
Intangible Assets, net of Accumulated Depreciation. Intangible assets primarily include (i) intangible assets established as part of acquisitions in the ID business of $463,790 at December 31, 2025 and (ii) indefinite-lived intangible assets in the Specialty P&C business as part of its acquisition of admitted shell carriers of $11,213 at December 31, 2025.
As of December 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024, intangible assets were $474,998 and $344,775, respectively. The increase is driven by the ArmadaCorp acquisition of $146,000, Pivix consolidation of $667, and foreign exchange rates of $21,591 (appreciation of the British pound), partially offset by amortization of $38,044.
Goodwill. As of December 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024, goodwill totaled $540,345 and $418,234 respectively. The
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | 37 | 2025 Form 10-K |
Table of Contents,
increase is primarily driven by the acquisition of ArmadaCorp and foreign exchange rates (appreciation of the British pound). All of the goodwill was assigned to the ID segment.
Liabilities:
Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves. Loss and LAE reserves are estimates of the ultimate liability for unpaid losses and loss expenses for claims that have been reported and incurred but not yet reported as of the balance sheet date.
Loss and LAE reserves by line of business were as follows as of December 31, 2025 and 2024
| December 31, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Gross | Net | Gross | Net | ||||||||
| Commercial auto | $ | 159,194 | $ | 23,062 | $ | 158,472 | $ | 28,720 | ||||
| Excess liability | 116,610 | 16,897 | 50,248 | 6,571 | ||||||||
| General liability | 63,596 | 12,572 | 35,211 | 8,286 | ||||||||
| Workers compensation | 17,798 | 17,798 | 14,465 | 14,465 | ||||||||
| Non-standard personal auto | 3,826 | 3,635 | 12,689 | 12,185 | ||||||||
| Professional liability | 40,846 | 2,851 | 17,698 | 1,807 | ||||||||
| Surety | 12,233 | 94 | 11,217 | 6 | ||||||||
| Unallocated loss adjustment expense reserves | 14,869 | 5,552 | 12,238 | 6,578 | ||||||||
| Other (1) | 24,834 | 289 | 36,551 | 320 | ||||||||
| Loss and Loss Expense Reserves | $ | 453,806 | $ | 82,750 | $ | 348,789 | $ | 78,937 |
(1) Includes $23,530 and $0 loss and loss expense reserves on a gross and net of reinsurance basis at December 31, 2025, and $35,146 and $0 loss and loss expense reserves on a gross and net of reinsurance basis at December 31, 2024, related to legacy liabilities obtained from the acquisitions of Providence Washington Insurance Company, Greenwood Insurance Company and Consolidated Specialty Insurance Company. All legacy liabilities remain obligations of affiliates of the sellers through reinsurance.
The process for determining the level of loss and LAE reserves is subject to certain estimates and judgments. Refer to the "Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates" and “Results of Operations” sections of Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, in addition to Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies and Loss Reserves sections included in Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies and Note 8. Insurance Contracts, respectively, to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, for further information on loss and loss adjustment expenses.
Short and Long-term Debt. Octave borrowed under a short-term credit facility to provide partial funding of the acquisition of Octave Ventures in 2024. This $150,000 short-term debt facility was repaid from the proceeds of the sale of AAC.
In connection with the acquisition of ArmadaCorp on October 31, 2025, Octave Partners LLC and certain of its subsidiaries (including ArmadaCorp) entered into $120,000 of the Credit Facilities, which were fully drawn to pay part of the purchase price for ArmadaCorp.
Commission Payable. Commission payables are commissions due to sub producers for placing insurance contracts on behalf of the MGAs and amounts due to UK Syndicates that provide advanced commissions to fund short-term liquidity needs for MGAs. Commission payable at December 31, 2025 and
December 31, 2024 was $115,555 and $71,431, respectively. The increase is primarily due to higher advance commissions due to Syndicates.
Redeemable Noncontrolling Interest (NCI):
The minority equity interests of Octave Ventures's majority-owned MGA/Us were classified within nonredeemable NCI at December 31, 2024. During the three months ended March 31, 2025, Octave entered into put options on certain of these minority interests that are embedded in the underlying equity instruments. As a result, the minority interests were reclassified from nonredeemable to redeemable and remeasured at fair value including the put options, increasing redeemable NCI by $42,180. Other changes to redeemable NCI during the year ended December 31, 2025, relate primarily to the allocation of financial results to the minority interests, revaluation to redemption value where applicable, reclassification of certain interests to nonredeemable due to the expiration of related put options, the exercise of certain put options and the impact of foreign currency translation.
ACCOUNTING STANDARDS
Please refer to Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report Form 10-K for a discussion of the impact of recent accounting pronouncements on Octave’s financial condition and results of operations.
U.S. INSURANCE BASIS FINANCIAL RESULTS
OSG's U.S. insurance subsidiaries prepare financial statements under accounting practices prescribed or permitted by its domiciliary state regulator (“SAP”) for determining and reporting the financial condition and results of operations of an insurance company. The NAIC Accounting Practices and Procedures manual (“NAIC SAP”) is adopted as a component of prescribed practices by each domiciliary state. For further information, see Note 9. Insurance Regulatory Restrictions to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report Form 10-K.
Everspan Indemnity Insurance Company
Everspan Indemnity Insurance Company’s (EIIC) statutory policyholder surplus was $128,031 at December 31, 2025, as compared to $125,202 at December 31, 2024. The increase in surplus was driven by net income at EIIC, including its subsidiaries, of $2,285 during the year ended December 31, 2025. Each of Everspan's insurance carriers are a direct or indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of EIIC and therefore are included in EIIC's statutory policyholder surplus.
The significant differences between GAAP and SAP are that under SAP:
•Investment grade fixed maturity investments are stated at amortized cost and certain below-investment-grade fixed maturity investments are reported at the lower of amortized cost or fair value. Under GAAP, all fixed maturity investments are reported at fair value.
•Majority-owned subsidiaries are not consolidated; rather, the equity basis of accounting is utilized and the carrying
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | 38 | 2025 Form 10-K |
Table of Contents,
values of these investments are subject to admissibility tests. The carrying values of Providence Washington Insurance Company, Greenwood Insurance Company, and Consolidated Specialty Insurance Company include a goodwill component representing the acquisition cost in excess of the related entity's statutory surplus. Goodwill is amortized over ten years under SAP. Under GAAP, the initial acquisitions of the companies were recorded as asset acquisitions, which required i) all net assets to initially be recorded at fair value and ii) the acquisition costs in excess of the fair value of net assets to be allocated to the bases of certain types of assets based on their relative fair values, if applicable. Acquired assets include intangible assets with indefinite lives. Such assets are not amortized, but their estimated useful lives are reevaluated each reporting period. No goodwill is recorded for asset acquisitions.
•Acquisition costs and ceding commissions, other than excess ceding commissions, are expensed or recognized at the time of a transaction. Under GAAP, acquisition costs and ceding commissions are deferred and recognized over the life of the related transaction.
•Unearned premiums and loss reserves are presented net of ceded amounts, while under GAAP, they are reflected gross of ceded amounts.
NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
In addition to reporting the Company’s quarterly financial results in accordance with GAAP, the Company is reporting non-GAAP financial measures: EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin, Organic Revenue Growth Rate (Insurance Distribution segment only), Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Net Income Margin. These amounts are derived from our consolidated financial information, but are not presented in our consolidated financial results.
We present non-GAAP supplemental financial information because we believe such information is of interest to the investment community, and that it provides greater transparency and enhanced visibility into the underlying drivers and performance of our businesses on a basis that may not be otherwise apparent on a GAAP basis. We view these non-GAAP financial measures as important indicators when assessing and evaluating our performance on a segmented and consolidated basis and they are presented to improve the comparability of our results between periods by eliminating the impact of the items that may not be representative of our core operating performance. These non-GAAP financial measures are not substitutes for the Company’s GAAP reporting, should not be viewed in isolation and may differ from similar reporting provided by other companies, which may define non-GAAP measures differently.
Beginning December 31, 2024, Octave replaced the non-GAAP measure Adjusted Net Income with new non-GAAP measures Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Net Income Margin and added Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin to better align with other participants in the Property & Casualty insurance industry, including insurance carriers and other peers in the insurance distribution business.
The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure. A tabular reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most comparable GAAP financial measure is also presented below.
EBITDA — EBITDA is net income (loss) from continuing operations before interest expense, income taxes, depreciation and amortization of intangible assets.
Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin — We define Adjusted EBITDA as net income (loss) from continuing operations before interest expense, income taxes, depreciation, amortization of intangible assets, change in fair value of contingent consideration and certain items of income and expense, including share-based compensation expense, acquisition and integration-related expenses, severance, and other exceptional or non-recurring items, including those related to raising capital. We believe that Adjusted EBITDA is an appropriate measure of operating performance because it eliminates the impact of income and expenses that may obfuscate business performance, and that the presentation of this measure enhances an investor's understanding of our financial performance.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | 39 | 2025 Form 10-K |
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| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Total | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Total | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Total | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) from continuing operations | $ | 2,956 | $ | (15,353) | $ | (83,406) | $ | (95,803) | $ | 10,469 | $ | (6,881) | $ | (62,509) | $ | (58,921) | $ | 335 | $ | 7,133 | $ | (30,701) | $ | (23,232) | ||||||||||||
| Adjustments: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Interest expense | — | 18,640 | — | 18,640 | — | 9,379 | — | 9,379 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Income taxes | 374 | (5,103) | (482) | (5,211) | 1,753 | (928) | (1,748) | (924) | 48 | 156 | (1,193) | (989) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Depreciation | — | 690 | 3,218 | 3,908 | — | 481 | 1,864 | 2,345 | — | 42 | 1,036 | 1,078 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Intangible amortization | — | 38,044 | — | 38,044 | — | 17,602 | — | 17,602 | — | 4,152 | — | 4,152 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EBITDA | 3,330 | 36,918 | (80,670) | (40,422) | 12,222 | 19,653 | (62,393) | (30,518) | 383 | 11,483 | (30,858) | (18,991) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Impact of noncontrolling interests | — | (14,507) | — | (14,507) | — | (6,448) | — | (6,448) | — | (2,102) | — | (2,102) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EBITDA attributable to shareholders | 3,330 | 22,411 | (80,670) | (54,929) | 12,222 | 13,205 | (62,393) | (36,966) | 383 | 9,381 | (30,858) | (21,094) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net income margin | — | — | NM | — | — | — | NM | — | — | — | NM | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net income margin attributable to shareholders | — | — | NM | — | — | — | NM | — | — | — | NM | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EBITDA margin | — | — | NM | — | — | — | NM | — | — | — | NM | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EBITDA margin attributable to shareholders | — | — | NM | — | — | — | NM | — | — | — | NM | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Acquisition and integration related expenses | — | 375 | 9,106 | 9,481 | — | — | 27,388 | 27,388 | — | — | 567 | 567 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Equity-based compensation expense | 447 | 368 | 11,494 | 12,309 | 414 | — | 8,941 | 9,355 | 634 | — | 11,632 | 12,266 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Severance and restructuring expense | — | 60 | 21,173 | 21,233 | — | 248 | 7,352 | 7,600 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Other non-operating (income) losses | — | (591) | 5,108 | 4,517 | (7,500) | — | 2,318 | (5,182) | — | — | 279 | 279 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA | 3,777 | 37,041 | (33,789) | 7,028 | 5,136 | 19,901 | (16,394) | 8,643 | 1,017 | 11,483 | (18,380) | (5,879) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA attributable to shareholders | $ | 3,777 | $ | 22,542 | $ | (33,789) | $ | (7,471) | $ | 5,136 | $ | 13,453 | $ | (16,394) | $ | 2,195 | $ | 1,017 | $ | 9,381 | $ | (18,380) | $ | (7,981) | ||||||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 4.3 | % | 22.6 | % | NM | 2.8 | % | 4.1 | % | 20.1 | % | NM | 3.7 | % | 1.6 | % | 22.3 | % | NM | (4.7) | % | |||||||||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin attributable to shareholders | 4.3 | % | 13.8 | % | NM | (3.0) | % | 4.1 | % | 13.6 | % | NM | 0.9 | % | 1.6 | % | 18.2 | % | NM | (6.2) | % |
Organic Revenue Growth
(Insurance Distribution only)
Organic revenue is based on commissions and fees for the relevant period by excluding (i) the first twelve months of commissions and fees generated from acquisitions, (ii) commissions and fees from divestitures and (iii) other items such as contingent commissions, profit commissions and the impact of changes in foreign exchange rates.
Organic revenue growth is the change in organic revenue period-to-period, with prior period results adjusted to (i) include commissions and fees that were excluded from organic revenue in the prior period and reached the twelve-month owned mark in the current period and (ii) exclude commissions and fees related to divestitures from organic revenue.
Organic revenue growth rate to Total revenue growth rate, the most directly comparable GAAP measure, for each of the periods indicated is as follows (in percentages):
| Year Ended December 31, | Year Ended December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2024 | % Growth | 2024 | 2023 | % Growth | |||||||||||||||||
| Total Insurance Distribution revenue (1) | $ | 163,855 | $ | 99,236 | 65.1 | % | $ | 99,236 | $ | 51,546 | 92.5 | % | ||||||||||
| Less: Acquired revenues (2) | (50,102) | (1,200) | (45,202) | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Less: Profit commission and contingent commission income | (11,898) | (9,031) | (4,273) | (4,489) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Less: Impact of F.X. rates | 2,572 | (183) | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||
| Total Organic Revenue & Growth Percentage | $ | 104,427 | $ | 88,822 | 17.6 | % | $ | 49,761 | $ | 47,057 | 5.7 | % |
(1)Total ID revenue includes investment income.
(2)Organic revenue growth includes a $1.2m reduction to 4Q24 revenue to adjust for a revenue recognition accounting policy adjustment made in 4Q24 in connection with the acquisition of Octave Ventures to recognize revenues that otherwise should have been recorded in 3Q24.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | 40 | 2025 Form 10-K |
Table of Contents,
Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Net Income Margin — We define Adjusted Net Income as net income (loss) from continuing operations attributable to Octave adjusted for amortization of intangible assets, change in fair value of contingent consideration and certain items of income and expense, including share-based compensation expense, acquisition and integration -related expenses, severance and non-recurring income and loss items that, in the opinion of management, significantly affect the period-over-period assessment of operating results, and the related tax effect of those adjustments. Per share amounts exclude any impact of revaluing non-controlling interests as otherwise reported under GAAP earnings per share. We believe that Adjusted Net Income is an appropriate measure of operating performance because it eliminates the impact of income and expenses that may obfuscate business performance.
| Year Ended December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consoli-dated | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consoli-dated | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consoli-dated | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) (Continuing Operations) | $ | 2,956 | $ | (15,353) | $ | (83,406) | $ | (95,802) | $ | 10,469 | $ | (6,881) | $ | (62,509) | $ | (58,921) | $ | 335 | $ | 7,133 | $ | (30,701) | $ | (23,232) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Adjustments: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Acquisition and integration related expenses | — | 375 | 9,106 | 9,481 | — | — | 27,388 | 27,388 | — | — | 567 | 567 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Intangible amortization | — | 38,044 | — | 38,044 | — | 17,602 | — | 17,602 | — | 4,152 | — | 4,152 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Equity-based compensation expense | 447 | 368 | 11,494 | 12,309 | 414 | — | 8,941 | 9,355 | 634 | — | 11,632 | 12,266 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Severance and restructuring expense | — | 60 | 23,065 | 23,125 | — | 248 | 7,352 | 7,600 | — | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Other non-operating (income) losses (1) | — | (591) | 5,108 | 4,517 | (7,500) | — | 2,318 | (5,182) | — | — | 279 | 279 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted net income (loss) before tax and NCI | 3,403 | 22,903 | (34,633) | (8,328) | 3,383 | 10,969 | (16,510) | (2,158) | 969 | 11,285 | (18,223) | (5,968) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Income tax effects | (58) | (6,009) | 58 | (6,009) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted net income (loss) before NCI | 3,345 | 16,894 | (34,575) | (14,337) | 3,383 | 10,969 | (16,510) | (2,158) | 969 | 11,285 | (18,223) | (5,968) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net (income) loss attributable to NCI | — | (13,394) | — | (13,394) | — | (6,448) | — | (6,448) | — | (2,102) | — | (2,102) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted net income (loss) attributable to shareholders | $ | 3,345 | $ | 3,500 | $ | (34,575) | $ | (27,731) | $ | 3,383 | $ | 4,521 | $ | (16,510) | $ | (8,606) | $ | 969 | $ | 9,183 | $ | (18,223) | $ | (8,070) |
(1) Other non-operating expense includes one-time add-backs related to gain on sale of CNIC, partially offset by losses related to minority interest strategy and write-down of certain capitalized software. costs.
| Year Ended December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consoli-dated | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consoli-dated | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consoli-dated | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) margin | 3.3 | % | (9.4) | % | NM | (38.1) | % | 8.3 | % | (6.9) | % | NM | (25.0) | % | 0.5 | % | 13.8 | % | NM | (18.6) | % | ||||||||||||
| Adjusted net income (loss) margin | 3.8 | % | 14.0 | % | NM | (3.3) | % | 2.7 | % | 11.1 | % | NM | (0.9) | % | 1.5 | % | 21.9 | % | NM | (4.8) | % |
MD&A history
Prior-year 10-K MD&A spans are extracted from SEC filings with the same bounded parser used for the latest filing. The latest 10-K appears above; prior years are below.
FY 2024 10-K MD&A
SEC filing source: 0000874501-25-000032.
Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations ($ and £ in thousands)
The objectives of our Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (“MD&A”) are to provide users of our consolidated financial statements with the following:
•A narrative explanation from the perspective of management of our financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, liquidity and certain other factors that may affect future results;
•Context to the consolidated financial statements; and
•Information that allows assessment of the likelihood that past performance is indicative of future performance.
Unless otherwise noted, this Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations relates solely to our continuing operations and does not include the operations of our Legacy Financial Guarantee business. See "Sale of AAC" below and Note 5. Discontinued Operations of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements under Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information about the divestiture of the Legacy Financial Guarantee business.
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements in Item 8 of this Report and the matters described under Item 1A. Risk Factors in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024. Refer to Part I, Item 1. Introduction - Description of the Business, for a description of our business and our key strategies to achieve our primary goal to maximize shareholder value.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Ambac Financial Group, Inc. | 28 | 2024 Form 10-K |
Table of Contents,
Organization of Information
MD&A includes the following sections:
| Page | |
|---|---|
| Strategies to Enhance Shareholder Value | 29 |
| Overview | 29 |
| Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates | 30 |
| Results of Operations | 34 |
| Liquidity and Capital Resources | 39 |
| Balance Sheet | 40 |
| Accounting Standards | 43 |
| Non-GAAP Financial Measures | 43 |
Strategies to Enhance Shareholder Value
The Company's primary goal is to maximize long-term shareholder value through the execution of targeted strategies for its Insurance Distribution and Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance businesses.
Insurance Distribution and Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance strategic priorities include:
•Expanding our Insurance Distribution business based on deep domain knowledge in specialty and niche classes of risk which generate attractive margins at scale. This will be achieved through acquisitions, strategic investments, establishing new businesses “de-novo,” and organic growth and diversification supported by a centralized technology led shared services offering
•Growing our Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance business to generate underwriting profits from a diversified portfolio of commercial and personal liability risks accessed primarily through program administrators.
OVERVIEW
The Company's continuing operations include two segments, financial highlights of which are summarized below along with other recent developments.
| Year Ended December 31, 2024 | Year Ended December 31, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Total | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Total | ||||||||||||||||
| Premiums placed | $ | 493,372 | $ | 493,372 | $ | 230,606 | $ | 230,606 | |||||||||||||||
| Gross premiums written | $ | 382,771 | 382,771 | $ | 273,287 | 273,287 | |||||||||||||||||
| Net premiums written | 88,682 | 88,682 | 79,824 | 79,824 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Total revenues | 126,320 | 99,236 | 10,259 | 235,815 | 64,101 | 51,546 | 9,080 | 124,728 | |||||||||||||||
| Total expenses | 114,098 | 107,045 | 74,516 | 295,660 | 63,718 | 44,257 | 40,974 | 148,949 | |||||||||||||||
| Pretax income (loss) | 12,222 | (7,809) | (64,257) | (59,845) | 383 | 7,289 | (31,894) | (24,221) | |||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) | 10,469 | (6,881) | (62,509) | (58,921) | 335 | 7,133 | (30,701) | (23,232) | |||||||||||||||
| EBITDA | 12,222 | 19,656 | (62,396) | (30,518) | 383 | 11,483 | (30,858) | (18,991) | |||||||||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA | 5,136 | 19,904 | (16,397) | 8,643 | 1,017 | 11,483 | (18,380) | (5,879) | |||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) attributable to Ambac shareholders | 10,471 | (7,244) | (62,509) | (59,282) | 334 | 5,815 | (30,701) | (24,551) | |||||||||||||||
| EBITDA attributable to Ambac shareholders | 12,222 | 13,208 | (62,396) | (36,966) | 383 | 9,381 | (30,858) | (21,093) | |||||||||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Ambac common stockholders | 5,136 | 13,456 | (16,397) | 2,195 | 1,017 | 9,381 | (18,380) | (7,981) |
Sale of AAC
On June 4, 2024, AFG entered into a stock purchase agreement with American Acorn Corporation (the “Buyer”), a Delaware corporation owned by funds managed by Oaktree Capital Management, L.P., pursuant to which and subject to the conditions set forth therein, AFG will sell all of the issued and outstanding shares of common stock of AAC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of AFG, to Buyer for aggregate consideration of $420 in cash (the "AAC Sale"). The terms of the AAC Sale as contemplated by the stock purchase agreement provide that, at the closing of the AAC Sale (the “Closing”), Buyer will acquire complete common equity ownership of AAC and all of its wholly owned subsidiaries, including Ambac UK. In connection with and pursuant to the stock purchase agreement, AFG has agreed to issue to Buyer a warrant exercisable for a number of shares of common stock, par value $0.01, of AFG representing
9.9% of the fully diluted shares of AFG’s common stock as of March 31, 2024, pro forma for the issuance of the warrant. The warrant will have an exercise price per share of $18.50 with a six and a half-year term from the date of issuance and will be immediately exercisable. Concurrent with the sale, AFG will purchase AAC's co-investment in the holding company established to purchase Beat, for an amount equal to AAC's $62,000 investment plus 7.5% per annum thereon.
Management has determined that the pending sale of AAC and its wholly-owned subsidiaries meets the criteria to be disclosed as discontinued operations beginning in the fourth quarter of 2024. The loss on disposal recognized in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $570,145. Refer to Note 5. Discontinued Operations for additional information about the sale of AAC.
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Purchase of Beat Capital Partners
On June 4, 2024, AFG entered into a share purchase agreement (the “Beat Purchase Agreement”), by and among AFG, Cirrata V LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of AFG (the “Purchaser”), certain sellers set forth therein (the “Sellers”) and Beat, pursuant to which the Purchaser purchased from the Sellers approximately 60% of the entire issued share capital of Beat, for total consideration, as of the closing date, of approximately $281,493, of which approximately $252,264 was paid in cash and the remainder of which was satisfied through the issuance of 2,216,023 shares of AFG common stock. The acquisition closed with an effective date of July 31, 2024. Beat’s management team and Bain Capital Credit LP (together, the “Rollover Shareholders”) each retained approximately 20% of Beat’s issued share capital immediately after closing. Refer to Note 4. Business Combination for further details on the acquisition of Beat.
Sale of Consolidated National Insurance Company
On January 12, 2024, Everspan Insurance Company entered into a Stock Purchase Agreement with Hagerty Insurance Holdings, Inc., to sell its ownership interests in Consolidated National Insurance Company ("CNIC"), which was one of Everspan's admitted carriers. The closing of this transaction occurred on September 1, 2024, resulting in a gain of approximately $7,504. The sale of CNIC will not have any adverse impact on the group's operations or growth prospects.
SEC Final Rules on Climate Related Information
On March 6, 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) adopted The Enhancement and Standardization of Climate-Related Disclosures for Investors ("Final Rule"), which will require registrants to disclose extensive climate-related information in their Form 10-K annual reports and registration statements. The Final Rule was scheduled to become effective May 28, 2024; however, the SEC has voluntarily stayed the rule’s effective date pending judicial review of legal challenges.
The compliance dates for accelerated filers for annual reports or registration statements that include financial statements for the year ending December 31 are phased in from 2026 through 2031. Depending on when the legal challenges are resolved, the compliance dates may be retained or delayed.
Ambac is reviewing the Final Rule and is currently assessing our related compliance obligations and other effects on our operations.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES AND ESTIMATES
Ambac's Consolidated Financial Statements have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. This section highlights accounting estimates management views as critical because they are most important to the portrayal of the Company's financial condition; and require management to make difficult and subjective judgments regarding matters that are inherently uncertain and subject to change. These estimates are evaluated on an on-going basis considering historical developments, political events,
market conditions, industry trends and other information. There can be no assurance that actual results will conform to estimates and that reported results of operations will not be materially adversely affected by the need to make future accounting adjustments to reflect changes in these estimates from time to time.
Management has identified the following critical accounting policies and estimates: (i) valuation of specialty property and casualty losses and loss adjustment expense reserves, (ii) valuation of financial guarantee loss and loss adjustment expense reserves, and (iii) business combinations including identification and valuation of intangible assets. Management has discussed each of these critical accounting policies and estimates with the Audit Committee, including the reasons why they are considered critical and how current and anticipated future events impact those determinations. Additional information about these policies can be found in Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K.
Valuation of Specialty Property and Casualty Losses and Loss Expense Reserves
The specialty property and casualty insurance segment consist of Everspan-affiliated carriers. Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves represent management's estimate of the ultimate liability for unpaid losses and loss expenses for claims that have been reported and claims that have been incurred, but not yet reported ("IBNR") as of the balance sheet date.
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves by line of business were as follows as of December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023:
| 2024 | Gross | Net | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Case | IBNR | Total | Case | IBNR | Total | ||||||||||||
| Commercial Auto | $ | 66,092 | $ | 92,379 | $ | 158,471 | $ | 12,532 | $ | 16,188 | $ | 28,720 | ||||||
| Excess and General Liability | 7,111 | 78,348 | 85,459 | 1,317 | 13,540 | 14,857 | ||||||||||||
| Workers Compensation | 6,640 | 7,825 | 14,465 | 6,640 | 7,825 | 14,465 | ||||||||||||
| Non-standard Personal Auto | 10,393 | 2,296 | 12,689 | 10 | 2 | 12,000 | ||||||||||||
| Surety | 1,176 | 10,041 | 11,217 | — | — | — | ||||||||||||
| ULAE (1) | — | 12,238 | 12,238 | — | 6,578 | 6,578 | ||||||||||||
| Other (2) | 8,639 | 45,884 | 54,523 | 111 | 2,066 | 2,177 | ||||||||||||
| Loss and Loss Expense Reserves | $ | 100,051 | $ | 249,011 | $ | 349,062 | $ | 30,600 | $ | 48,197 | $ | 78,797 |
(1) Unallocated loss adjustment expenses.
(2) Includes $35,146 and $0 total loss and loss expense reserves on a gross and net of reinsurance basis related to legacy liabilities obtained from the acquisitions of Providence Washington Insurance Company, Greenwood Insurance Company and Consolidated Specialty Insurance Company. All legacy liabilities remain obligations of affiliates of the sellers through reinsurance and contractual indemnities.
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| 2023 | Gross | Net | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Case | IBNR | Total | Case | IBNR | Total | ||||||||||||
| Commercial Auto | $ | 44,370 | $ | 62,635 | $ | 107,005 | $ | 8,969 | $ | 12,945 | $ | 21,913 | ||||||
| Excess and General Liability | 1,604 | 21,261 | 22,865 | 204 | 3,722 | 3,925 | ||||||||||||
| Workers Compensation | 2,571 | 2,675 | 5,246 | 2,571 | 2,675 | 5,246 | ||||||||||||
| Non-standard Personal Auto | 3,323 | 2,520 | 5,843 | 3,074 | 2,062 | 5,136 | ||||||||||||
| Surety | 650 | 4,113 | 4,763 | — | — | — | ||||||||||||
| ULAE (1) | — | 6,085 | 6,085 | — | 4,527 | 4,527 | ||||||||||||
| Other (2) | 10,034 | 35,248 | 45,282 | — | 41 | 41 | ||||||||||||
| Loss and Loss Expense Reserves | $ | 62,552 | $ | 134,537 | $ | 197,089 | $ | 14,817 | $ | 25,971 | $ | 40,788 |
(1) Unallocated loss adjustment expenses.
(2) Includes $43,751 and $0 total loss and loss expense reserves on a gross and net of reinsurance basis related to legacy liabilities obtained from the acquisitions of Providence Washington Insurance Company, Greenwood Insurance Company, Consolidated National Insurance Company and Consolidated Specialty Insurance Company. All legacy liabilities remain obligations of affiliates of the sellers through reinsurance and contractual indemnities.
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves, evaluated at a program and line of business level, are estimated based upon experience and using a variety of actuarial methods and are subject to the impact of future changes in factors such as claim severity and frequency, underwriting and claims practices, changes in social and economic conditions including the impact of inflation, legal and judicial developments, medical cost trends and upward trends in damage awards. The key assumptions used to arrive at the best estimate of loss reserves are the expected loss ratios and loss development factors representing reported and paid loss emergence patterns. Our actuarial methods may also rely on external data, such as industry loss ratios, loss development factors, or trend factors. The initial estimate for an accident year is generally based on an exposure-based method using the loss ratio projection method. The loss ratio projection method develops an initial estimate of ultimate claims and claim adjustment expenses for an accident year by multiplying earned premium for the accident year by a projected loss ratio. The projected loss ratio is determined by analyzing prior period experience, and adjusting for loss cost trends, rate level differences, mix of business changes and industry loss ratios and other known or observed factors influencing the accident year relative to prior accident years.
The loss and loss adjustment expense reserves estimate may be based on a judgmental weighting of estimates produced from multiple estimation and analysis methods considered. The method(s) selected and weighted are those that are believed to produce the most accurate estimate at that particular evaluation date. The following estimation and analysis methods are principally used by the Company’s engaged independent actuarial specialists to estimate the ultimate cost of loss and loss adjustment expenses. These estimation and analysis methods are typically referred to as conventional actuarial methods.
•The paid loss development method assumes that the future change (positive or negative) in cumulative paid losses for a given cohort of claims will occur in a stable, predictable pattern from year-to-year, consistent with the pattern observed in past cohorts.
•The case incurred development method is the same as the paid loss development method, but is based on cumulative case-incurred losses rather than paid losses.
•The Bornhuetter-Ferguson method uses an initial estimate of ultimate losses for a given product line reserve component, typically expressed as a ratio to earned premium. The method assumes that the ratio of additional claim activity to earned premium for that component is relatively stable and predictable over time and that actual claim activity to date is not a credible predictor of further activity for that component. The method is used most often for more recent accident years where claim data is sparse and/or volatile, with a transition to other methods as the underlying claim data becomes more voluminous and therefore more credible.
The actuarial results provide a range of estimated losses by program and line of business including a low, central and high estimate of losses and loss expenses. Management typically selects the respective midpoint loss ratio between the actuarial determined central and high estimate for its active programs and lines of business for each respective accident year when recording loss and loss adjustment expense reserves. Beginning December 31, 2024, management decided to set loss reserves for programs that are in runoff at the high end of the respective actuarial loss ranges, given these program can experience greater loss volatility than active programs.
Since the reserves are based on estimates, the ultimate liability may be more or less than such reserves. Ambac's actuarial evaluation at December 31, 2024 provided a range of losses incurred. Losses at the low end of the range would be below our recorded gross and net loss expense reserves by approximately $33,400 and $6,900, respectively at December 31, 2024, and losses at the high end of the range would exceed our recorded gross and net loss and loss adjustment expense reserve by approximately $4,500 and $1,000, respectively at December 31, 2024. This range reflects low and high reasonable reserve estimates determined after using judgment to adjust the methods, factors, and assumptions selected within the internal reserve review. This approach produces a range of reasonable reserve estimates but does not represent a distribution of all possible outcomes.
Additionally, changes in assumptions such as loss development patterns and expected loss ratios can result in variability in actuarial estimates.
•For the loss development pattern we considered the impact of the reported incurred losses developing faster or slower than expected in our projections. For every 1.0% slower or faster the losses develop, we would expected our net indicated reserves to increase or decrease, respectively, by approximately 0.8%. If our reported loss development pattern was 5% slower, the net indicated reserves would be approximately 4% higher. If our reported loss development pattern was 5% faster, the net indicated reserves would be approximately 4% lower.
•For the expected losses we utilize industry benchmark loss ratios and internal pricing loss ratios applied to earned premium. For every 1.0% higher or lower the expected losses are, we would expected our net indicated reserves to
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increase or decrease by approximately 0.55%. If our expected losses were 5% higher, the net indicated reserves would be approximately 3% higher. If our expected losses were 5% lower, the net indicated reserves would be approximately 3% lower.
Consequently, final outcomes may be greater or less than the estimates. The extent of the range and variability of loss and loss adjustment expense reserves could be further impacted by future changes in factors discussed above. See “Risk Factors” in Part I, Item 1A in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Valuation of Legacy Financial Guarantee Losses and Loss Expense Reserves (including Subrogation Recoverables)
The legacy financial guarantee ("LFG") business includes the activities of AAC and its wholly owned subsidiaries, including Ambac UK, and are reported as discontinued operations in the Consolidated Financial Statements. Refer to Note 5. Discontinued Operations to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for a discussion of the pending sale of these entities to the Buyer. As a result of the pending sale, the LFG loss and loss adjustment expense reserves and subrogation recoverable assets (collectively defined as "loss reserves") discussed in this section are reported within liabilities held-for-sale and assets-held-for sale, respectively, on the consolidated balance sheet.
A loss reserve is recorded on the balance sheet on a policy-by-policy basis at the present value ("PV") of expected net claim cash outflows or expected net recovery cash inflows, discounted at risk-free rates. The estimate for future net cash flows considers the likelihood of all possible outcomes that may occur from missed principal and/or interest payments on the insured obligation. This estimate also considers future recoveries related to contractual or subrogation-related cash flows.
The evaluation process for expected future net cash flows is subject to estimates and judgments regarding the probability of default by the issuer of the insured security, the probability of negotiation or settlement outcomes (which may include commutation, litigation and other settlements, and/or a refinancing), the probability of restructuring outcomes (which may include payment moratoriums, debt haircuts and/or subsequent recoveries) and the expected loss severity of credits for each insurance contract.
As the probability of default for an individual credit increases and/or the severity of loss given a default increases, our loss reserve for that insured obligation will also increase. Political, economic, environmental, credit or other unforeseen events could have an adverse impact on default probabilities and loss severities. The loss reserves for many transactions are derived from the issuer’s creditworthiness. For public finance issuers, loss reserves will consider not only creditworthiness, but also political dynamics and economic status and prospects. The loss reserves for transactions which have no direct issuer support, such as most structured finance exposures, including RMBS and student loan exposures, are derived from the default activity and the estimated loss given default of the underlying collateral supporting the transactions. In addition, many transactions have a combination of issuer/entity and collateral support. Loss
reserves reflect our assessment of the transaction’s overall structure, support and expected performance. Loss reserve volatility will be a direct result of the credit performance of our insured portfolio, including the number, size, bond types and quality of credits included in our loss reserves; our ability to execute workout strategies and commutations; economic and market conditions; and management's judgments with regards to the current performance and future developments within the insured portfolio. The number and severity of credits included in our loss reserves depend to a large extent on transaction specific attributes, but will generally increase during periods of economic stress and decline during periods of economic prosperity. Reinsurance contracts may mitigate future loss reserve volatility. While Ambac currently has minimal exposure ceded to reinsurers on financial guarantee credits with loss reserves, the existing reinsurance contracts would reduce future volatility to the extent loss reserves are established on those risks ceded to reinsurers. Loss reserve volatility will also be materially impacted by changes in interest rates from period to period.
The table below indicates the gross par outstanding and gross loss reserves (including loss expenses) related to policies in Ambac’s Financial Guarantee loss and loss adjustment expense reserves at December 31, 2024 and 2023:
| Gross ParOutstanding | Gross Lossand LossAdjustmentExpenseReserves | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2024 | |||||||
| Structured Finance | $ | 1,612,056 | $ | 424,073 | |||
| Domestic Public Finance | 834,370 | 58,688 | |||||
| Other | 138,199 | (10,625) | |||||
| Loss expenses | — | (8,932) | |||||
| Totals | $ | 2,584,625 | 463,204 | ||||
| December 31, 2023 | |||||||
| Structured Finance | $ | 1,859,786 | 496,541 | ||||
| Domestic Public Finance | 834,123 | 66,381 | |||||
| Other | 1,144,195 | (7,831) | |||||
| Loss expenses | — | 3,549 | |||||
| Totals | $ | 3,838,104 | 558,640 |
See Note 5. Discontinued Operation to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for a description of the cash flow and statistical methodologies used to develop loss reserves. The majority of our large loss reserves utilize the cash flow method of reserving. Various cash flow scenarios are developed to represent the range of possible outcomes and resultant future claim payments and timing. Scenarios and probabilities of each are adjusted regularly to reflect changes in status, outlook and our analysis and views. Significant judgment is used to develop the cash flow assumptions and related probabilities, and there can be no certainty that the scenarios or probabilities will not deviate materially from ultimate outcomes.
•In some cases, such as RMBS and student loans, cash flow projections include the modeling of a securitization's cash flows to determine the resources available to pay debt service on our insured obligations. During 2023, Ambac revised the model it uses to project RMBS collateral losses
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considering the seasoning of our RMBS exposure and management’s view that the most relevant determinant of prospective collateral performance is borrower payment status (e.g., loan status being current, delinquent, foreclosure, REO, etc.). Key assumptions impacting student loan cash flow models include projected loan defaults, recoveries and interest rates. During 2023, we revised our approach to projecting future defaults to both reflect the student loan collateral's seasoning and generally stable performance.
•In other cases, such as many public finance exposures, we consider the issuer's overall ability and willingness to pay as it relates to the existing fiscal, economic, legal, restructuring and/or political framework relevant to a particular exposure or group of exposures. We then develop multiple scenarios where issuer debt service is paid, missed and/or haircut with claims paid then factor in any projected recovery amount (and potential variability of the recovery amount) and the timing thereof. There is no certainty our assumptions as to scenarios or probabilities will not be subject to material changes as developments occur.
•In estimating loss reserves, we may also incorporate scenarios which represent the potential outcome of remediation strategies. Remediation scenarios could include (i) a potential refinancing of the transaction by the issuer; (ii) the issuer’s ability to redeem outstanding securities at a discount, thereby increasing the structure’s ability to absorb future losses; and (iii) our ability to terminate, restructure or commute the policy in whole or in part. The remediation scenarios and the related probabilities of occurrence vary by policy depending on ongoing and expected discussions and negotiations with issuers and/or investors.
Variability of Expected Losses and Recoveries
Management believes loss reserves (present value of expected cash flows, net of recoveries) are adequate to cover future claim payments, but there can be no assurance that the ultimate liability will not be higher than such estimates.
While our LFG loss reserves reflect our judgment regarding issuers’ financial flexibility to adapt to adverse markets, they may not adequately capture sudden, unexpected or protracted uncertainty that adversely affects market conditions. Accordingly, it is possible that our estimated loss reserves, gross of reinsurance, for financial guarantee insurance policies could be understated. We have attempted to identify possible cash flows related to losses and recoveries using more stressful assumptions than the probability-weighted outcome recorded. The possible net cash flows consider the highest stress scenario that was utilized in the development of our probability-weighted expected loss at December 31, 2024, and assumes an inability to execute any commutation transactions with issuers and/or investors. Such stress scenarios are developed based on management’s view about all possible outcomes relating to losses and recoveries. In arriving at such view, management makes considerable judgments about the possibility of various future events. Although we do not believe it is possible to have stressed outcomes in all cases, it is possible that we could have stress case outcomes in some or even many cases. See “Risk
Factors” in Part I, Item 1A in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further discussion of the risks relating to future losses and recoveries that could result in more highly stressed outcomes.
The occurrence of these stressed outcomes individually or collectively would have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition and may result in materially adverse consequence for Ambac, including (without limitation) impairing the ability of AAC to honor its financial obligations, particularly its outstanding surplus note and preferred stock obligations; the initiation of rehabilitation proceedings against AAC; and a significant drop in the value of securities issued or insured by AAC. The possible increase in loss reserves for which we have an estimate of expected loss at December 31, 2024, could be approximately $265,000.
Business Combinations
The acquired entities comprising the Insurance Distribution segment primarily represent business combinations that were accounted for under the acquisition method of accounting. The acquisition method requires us to allocate the total consideration transferred for each acquisition to the assets acquired, liabilities assumed and noncontrolling ("NCI") interests based on their fair values as of the date of acquisition, including identifiable intangible assets. The allocation of the consideration utilizes significant estimates in determining the fair values of net assets acquired, which primarily consist of customer relationship intangible assets, redeemable NCI interests and nonredeemable NCI interests.
The valuation method used to determine customer relationship intangible assets was the multi period excess earnings method "(MPEEM"), which quantifies the residual (or excess) cash flows generated by the intangible asset and discounts those cash flows to their present value. The significant assumptions used in determining the fair value of customer relationships include estimated revenue growth, customer attrition rates, operating margins, and discount rate. These estimates directly impact the amount of identified intangible assets recognized and the related amortization expense in future periods. As of December 31, 2024 and 2023, an aggregate of $333,562 and $47,289, respectively, of acquired intangible assets, net of accumulated amortization, was recorded on the Consolidated Balance Sheets, of which $323,720 and $44,585, respectively, represented customer relationships.
The valuation method to determine the fair value of redeemable NCI interests and related put and call options was the Monte Carlo Simulation. The significant fair value assumptions used in the simulation include the exercise thresholds, EBITDA forecasts, discount rate and long-term growth rate. The valuation method to determine the fair value of nonredeemable NCI interests, which do not contain put or call options, was the discounted cash flow approach. The significant fair value assumptions used in the model include estimated long term revenue and expense forecasts and the discount rate.
The excess of purchase price over the fair value of assets acquired, liabilities assumed, and NCI interests (both redeemable and nonredeemable) is recorded as goodwill. We may refine our estimates and make adjustments to the assets
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acquired and liabilities assumed over a measurement period, not to exceed one year from the date of acquisition.
Intangible asset impairment and useful life evaluation
We review acquired finite-lived intangible assets that are being amortized for impairment whenever events or changes in circumstance indicate that their carrying amount may not be recoverable. Qualitative factors considered include any adverse developments in regulation, unfavorable market conditions, or the extent to which an asset will be utilized. We do not believe there will be a material change in the estimates or assumptions used to calculate impairments or useful lives of amortizable intangible assets. However, if actual results are not consistent with our estimates and assumptions, we may be exposed to an acceleration of amortization or impairment losses that could be material.
Goodwill impairment evaluation
We perform the impairment assessment of goodwill at the reporting unit level within our Insurance Distribution segment on an annual basis or more frequently if circumstances indicate a possible impairment. The impairment test may first consider qualitative factors to determine whether it is more likely than not that the fair value of a reporting unit is less than its carrying amount. Examples of qualitative factors include, macroeconomic conditions, industry and market considerations, cost factors, overall financial performance, entity-specific events, events affecting reporting units and sustained changes in our stock price. If results of the qualitative assessment indicate a more likely than not determination or if we elect not to perform a qualitative assessment, a quantitative test is performed by comparing the estimated fair value using an income approach or market approach for each reporting unit with its estimated carrying value. For the 2024 annual impairment evaluation, we performed a qualitative assessment for certain reporting units and for other reporting units we elected to bypass the qualitative evaluation and perform quantitative tests. There was no goodwill impairment for any of the reporting units.
Under the quantitative assessment, the determination of fair value includes assumptions, which are considered Level 3 inputs, that are subject to risk and uncertainty. We consider different valuation approaches in the quantitative assessment. The income approach uses discounted cash flows which are dependent on subjective factors including the timing of future cash flows, the underlying margin projection assumptions, future growth rates and the discount rate. The market approach uses valuation multiples and is dependent on subjective factors including the determination of industry market multiples and EBITDA forecasts. Additionally, to corroborate our estimated fair value, we perform a market capitalization reconciliation to determine if the implied control premium is reasonable. If our assumptions or estimates in our fair value calculations change or if any of the above subjective factors vary from what was expected, this may impact our impairment analysis and result in a decline in fair value that may trigger future impairment charges.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following discussion of results of operations for the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022 should be read along with the financial statements included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Net loss from continuing operations for the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022, was $58,921, $23,232 and $35,244, respectively. The net loss variance in 2024 compared to 2023 was primarily driven by: (i) higher costs related to acquisitions and integrations of $26,821, (ii) higher restructuring costs of $7,600, (iii) higher intangible amortization of $13,450 and (iv) interest expense on short-term debt of $9,379, partially offset by higher Everspan income, including the $7,500 gain on the sale of CNIC, and continuing growth of Insurance Distribution business.
The net loss variance in 2023 compared to 2022 was primarily driven by higher net investment income of $8,655 and growth of both the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses flowing from higher net premiums earned of $38,042 from Everspan and higher commission income of $20,586 from Insurance Distribution.
A summary of our financial results is shown below:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues: | ||||||||||
| Net premiums earned | $ | 99,005 | $ | 51,911 | $ | 13,869 | ||||
| Commission income | 92,023 | 51,281 | 30,695 | |||||||
| Program fees | 13,506 | 8,437 | 3,095 | |||||||
| Net investment income | 14,448 | 13,159 | 4,503 | |||||||
| Net investment gains (losses), including impairments | (497) | 19 | (62) | |||||||
| Net gains (losses) on derivative contracts | 4,016 | (279) | 935 | |||||||
| Other income | 13,314 | 200 | 577 | |||||||
| Expenses: | ||||||||||
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses | 72,626 | 36,712 | 9,071 | |||||||
| Policy acquisition costs | 23,666 | 10,557 | 2,535 | |||||||
| Commission expense | 40,876 | 29,465 | 17,641 | |||||||
| General and administrative expenses | 129,166 | 66,985 | 56,278 | |||||||
| Intangible amortization | 17,602 | 4,152 | 2,921 | |||||||
| Interest expense | 9,379 | — | — | |||||||
| Provision (benefit) for income taxes from continuing operations | (924) | (989) | (462) | |||||||
| Net income (loss) from continuing operations | (58,921) | (23,232) | (35,244) | |||||||
| Net income (loss) from discontinued operations, net of income taxes | (497,167) | 28,183 | 557,364 | |||||||
| Net income (loss) | (556,088) | 4,951 | 522,120 | |||||||
| Less: net (gain) loss attributable to NCI | (361) | (1,319) | (871) | |||||||
| Plus: gain on purchase of auction market preferred shares | — | — | 1,131 | |||||||
| Net income (loss) attributable to Ambac shareholders | $ | (556,449) | $ | 3,632 | $ | 522,380 |
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Ambac's results for the year ended December 31, 2024 compared to the year ended December 31, 2023, and for the year ended December 31, 2023 compared to the year ended December 31, 2022 were impacted by the following:
•Ambac's acquisitions within the Insurance Distribution segment have a significant impact on the comparability of results between 2024, 2023 and 2022. Effective July 31, 2024, Ambac acquired 60% of Beat. Effective August 1, 2023, Ambac acquired 80% of Riverton. Effective November 1, 2022, Ambac acquired 85% of All Trans and 80% of Capacity Marine.
•In the fourth quarter of 2024, the pending sale of AAC was determined to qualify for discontinued operations presentation, resulting in a loss from disposal of $570,145 reported within loss from discontinued operations in 2024. The income (loss) from discontinued operations were (497,167), 28,183 and 557,364 for the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022. Refer to Note 5. Discontinued Operation for further details of these amounts.
The following describes the consolidated results of continuing operations of Ambac and its subsidiaries for 2024, 2023 and 2022.
Gross Premiums Written. Gross premiums written increased $109,484 for the year ended December 31, 2024, and $126,908 for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to the comparable prior year periods, as shown below.
| Year Ended December 31, | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Premiums Written | $ | 382,771 | $ | 273,287 | $ | 146,379 |
Growth is primarily driven by the number and size of active programs. As of December 31, 2024, 2023, and 2022 we had 27, 23 and 14 programs across approximately ten lines of business, with a focus on the casualty sector and minimal property exposure.
Net Premiums Written. Net premiums written increased $8,858 for the year ended December 31, 2024 and $51,270 for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to the comparable prior year periods, as shown below:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Premiums Written | $ | 88,682 | $ | 79,824 | $ | 28,554 |
Growth in net premiums written will typically track gross premiums written, but will also be impacted by the percentage of each program Everspan retains. Everspan typically retains up to 30% of each program. For the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022, Everspan retained 23%, 29% and 17% of gross written premiums, respectively. The increased retention rate in 2023 compared to 2022 was driven by Everspan's participation on two assumed reinsurance transactions which have an effective retention rate of 100%. Everspan exited one of those programs in the fourth quarter of 2024, which contributed to the decline in retention rate in 2024 as compared to 2023.
Net Premiums Earned. Net premiums earned for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased by $47,094 or 90.7% and for the year ended December 31, 2023, increased $38,042 or 274% compared to the respective priority years, as shown below.
| Year Ended December 31, | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Premiums Earned | $ | 99,005 | $ | 51,911 | $ | 13,869 |
The increase in net premiums earned was driven by the growth in net premiums written.
Commission Income and Commission Expense. The Insurance Distribution business earns commission income as a percentage of the premium it place with insurance, reinsurance and other capacity providers. In some cases, the Insurance Distribution business will also earn profit commissions based on the underwriting performance of the business that it underwrites Profit commissions by their nature may be volatile whereas base commissions tend to be more steady.
Commission income was $92,023 and $51,281 for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively. The increase was driven by organic growth in premiums placed as well as the acquisition of Beat in July 2024 and Riverton in August of 2023. Commission expense will largely track changes in gross commission.
For the year ended December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023 commission expense was $40,876 and $29,465 representing approximately 43% and 56% of commission income in each respective period. The decrease in commission expense relative to commission income in 2024 relative to 2023 is primarily a result of the acquisition of Beat. When third parties are paid commissions to obtain business, the majority of Beat's commission income is reported net of any distribution and commission expenses, due to the nature of its program agreements. The majority of the Insurance Distribution Segment's other MGA/Us report their commission income gross of distribution and commission expenses.
Commission income was $51,281 compared to $30,695 for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. Growth was primarily driven by acquisitions during each of the periods including Riverton in August 2023 and All Trans and Capacity Marine in November 2022. For the year ended December 31, 2023 commission expense was $29,465 compared to $17,641 for the year Ended December 31, 2022, representing approximately 57% of commission income in both periods.
Program Fees. Program fee revenues were $13,506, $8,437 and $3,095 for the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022, respectively. Program fee revenues represent the recognition of ceding commissions in excess of direct acquisition costs received from reinsurers and minimum fees received from MGA/Us until related programs reach certain levels of premium ceded. Program fees are charged as a percentage of premiums ceded to reinsurers as a component of total ceding commissions. The growth is a function of higher premiums ceded to reinsurers; driven by the growth in premiums written.
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| Ambac Financial Group, Inc. | 35 | 2024 Form 10-K |
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Net Investment Income. Net investment income consists of interest income, including the net effect of discount accretion and premium amortization, from fixed maturity securities classified as available-for-sale and net gains (losses) on pooled investment funds which are reported under the equity method. These funds and certain other investments are reported in Other investments on the Consolidated Balance Sheets. For further information about investment funds held, refer to Note 6. Investments to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Net investment income was $14,448, $13,159, and $4,503 for the years ended years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022, respectively.
Net investment income increased in 2024 compared to 2023 due to higher average yields and growth of the Everspan investment portfolio, partially offset by lower average net short term investment balances resulting from the acquisition of Beat, and lower returns on fund investments.
The increase in 2023 compared to 2022 resulted primarily from higher yields and a larger consolidated investment portfolio, following AFG's sale of intercompany debt obligations (which were eliminated in consolidation) in late 2022.
Net Investment Gains (Losses), including Impairments. Net investment gains (losses) were $(497), $19, and $(62) during the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022. During 2024, the net loss included credit impairments of $(6,516) on certain minority investments in development stage companies held by AFG, offset by realized gains of $6,016 arising from the redemption and conversion of convertible notes. Other gains (losses) related to sales in connection with routine portfolio management.
Net Gains (Losses) on Derivative Contracts. Net gains (losses) on derivative contracts include results from FX forward contracts used to manage currency risk within the Insurance Distribution segment, as well as by AFG to protect against currency fluctuations leading up to the purchase of Beat. Results also include changes in the fair value of warrants to purchase equity of certain development stage companies held by AFG.
Net derivatives gains in 2024 were driven by gains on AFG's FX forwards partially offset by fair value losses on owned warrants. Results for 2023 and 2022 reflect fair value changes on the warrants. There were no FX forward contracts in 2023 or 2022.
Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses (Benefit). Losses and loss adjustment expenses increased $35,914 for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to the prior year. The increase was primarily due to the growth of the business. Everspan's loss and LAE ratio was 73.4% and 70.7% for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively, inclusive of prior years adverse development of 4.7% and 0.3%, respectively. The shift in the loss and LAE ratio was driven by commercial auto loss experience in the prior accident years and a higher selected loss ratio for programs in runoff. In the fourth quarter of 2024 management decided to set loss reserves for programs that are runoff at the high end of the actuarial loss range, given these program can experience greater loss volatility than active programs. This change to set runoff reserves at the high end of the range resulted in a 1 percentage point increase in
the loss and LAE ratio for the year ended December 31, 2024 compared to our prior reserving method. Everspan's loss and LAE ratio will vary based on changes in the lines of business underwritten and retained, loss reserving policy, loss development trends, inflation rates and other economic and industry specific factors. The increase in the loss and LAE ratio for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to December 31, 2023, was partially offset by a benefit to acquisition costs as a result of sliding scale commission arrangements with program partners. Certain Everspan programs were structured to include sliding scale commission arrangements within a loss ratio range. These sliding scale arrangements help to partially mitigate net income volatility. Such benefit reduced the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segments expense ratio by 0.8% and 3.2% for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively.
Loss and loss expenses incurred increased for the year ended December 31, 2023, relative to the year ended December 31, 2022, primarily due to the growth of the business. Everspan's loss and LAE ratio was 70.7% and 65.4% for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively, inclusive of prior years adverse development of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. The shift in the loss and LAE ratio was primarily driven by commercial auto loss experience in the current accident year and the addition of non-standard personal auto and workers compensation programs through assumed reinsurance. The increase in the loss and LAE ratio for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to the year ended December 31, 2022, was partially offset by a benefit to acquisition costs as a result of sliding scale commission arrangements with program partners. Such benefit reduced the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segments expense ratio by 3.2% and 1.3% for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively.
Loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred may be adversely impacted by increasing economic and social inflation, particularly within the commercial auto business. The impact of inflation on ultimate loss reserves is difficult to estimate, particularly in light of recent disruptions to the judicial system, supply chain, labor markets and the potential impact of the imposition of trade tariffs. In addition, going forward, we may not be able to offset the impact of inflation on our loss costs with sufficient price increases. The estimation of loss reserves may also be more difficult during extreme events, such as a pandemic, or during the persistence of volatile or uncertain economic conditions, due to, amongst other reasons, unexpected changes in behavior of judicial decisions, claimants and policyholders, including fraudulent reporting of exposures and/or losses. Due to the inherent uncertainty underlying loss reserve estimates, the final resolution of the estimated liability for loss and loss adjustment expenses will likely be higher or lower than the related loss reserves at the reporting date. In addition, our estimate of losses and loss expenses may change. These additional liabilities or increases in estimates, or a range of either, could vary significantly from period to period.
General and Administrative Expenses ("G&A"). The following table provides a summary of G&A expenses for the periods presented:
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| Ambac Financial Group, Inc. | 36 | 2024 Form 10-K |
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| Year Ended December 31, | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compensation | $ | 64,346 | $ | 48,468 | $ | 39,159 | ||||
| Non-compensation | 64,820 | 18,517 | 17,119 | |||||||
| Total | $ | 129,166 | $ | 66,985 | $ | 56,278 |
The increase in 2024 compared to 2023 was primarily due to the following:
•Higher compensation costs of $15,878 primarily due to acquired MGAs in the Insurance Distribution segment partially offset by the favorable variance from the impact of performance factor adjustments on incentive compensation expense.
•Higher non-compensation costs of $46,303, driven primarily by higher acquisition related costs of $26,821, restructuring costs of $6,990 in anticipation of the sale of AAC, higher Insurance Distribution expenses of $7,707 driven mostly by the increased scale of the business, and and the write-down of certain capitalized software costs. Growth in Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance also contributed to higher overall costs.
The increase in G&A expenses in 2023 compared to 2022 was primarily due to the following:
•Higher compensation costs associated with acquisitions and the growth of the Insurance Distribution and Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance businesses, and the adverse variance from the impact of performance factor adjustments on incentive compensation expense.
•Higher non-compensation expenses related to acquisitions in the Insurance Distribution segment.
Intangible Amortization. Intangible amortization was $17,603, $4,152 and $2,921 for the years ended years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022; all increases relate to acquisitions within the Insurance Distribution segment.
Interest Expense. Interest expense for the year ended December 31, 2024 was $9,379, related to the short-term debt used in funding the Beat acquisition. No interest expense was incurred in the company's continuing operations for the year ended December 31, 2023 and 2022.
Provision for Income Taxes. The provision for income taxes (benefit) from continuing operations for the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022, was $(924), $(989) and $(462) , respectively.
At December 31, 2024, the Company had approximately $3,615,708 of U.S. Federal net ordinary operating loss carryforwards, including approximately $1,663,087 at AFG.
Results of Operations by Segment
| Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year Ended December 31, | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
| Gross premiums written | $ | 382,771 | $ | 273,287 | $ | 146,379 | |||||
| Net premiums written | 88,682 | 79,824 | 28,554 | ||||||||
| Revenues: | |||||||||||
| Net premiums earned | $ | 99,005 | $ | 51,911 | $ | 13,869 | |||||
| Net investment income | 6,399 | 3,795 | 1,605 | ||||||||
| Net investment gains (losses), including impairments | 1 | (36) | (46) | ||||||||
| Program fees | 13,506 | 8,437 | 3,095 | ||||||||
| Other income | 7,409 | (6) | (58) | ||||||||
| Total | 126,320 | 64,101 | 18,465 | ||||||||
| Expenses: | |||||||||||
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses | 72,626 | 36,712 | 9,071 | ||||||||
| Policy acquisition costs | 23,666 | 10,557 | 2,535 | ||||||||
| General and administrative expenses | 17,806 | 16,449 | 13,205 | ||||||||
| Net (gain) loss attributable to NCI interest | 2 | (1) | 15 | ||||||||
| EBITDA | 12,222 | $ | 383 | $ | (6,346) | ||||||
| Pretax income (loss) from continuing operations | $ | 12,222 | $ | 383 | $ | (6,346) | |||||
| Retention Ratio (1) | 23.2 | % | 29.2 | % | 19.5 | % | |||||
| Loss and LAE Ratio (2) | 73.4 | % | 70.7 | % | 65.4 | % | |||||
| Expense Ratio (3) | 28.2 | % | 35.8 | % | 91.2 | % | |||||
| Combined Ratio (4) | 101.6 | % | 106.5 | % | 156.6 | % | |||||
| Ambac's stockholders equity (5) | $ | 133,266 | $ | 121,678 | $ | 112,363 |
(1)Retention ratio is defined as net premiums written divided by gross premiums written.
(2)Loss and LAE ratio is defined as losses and loss expenses incurred divided by net premiums earned.
(3)Expense Ratio is defined as acquisition costs and general and administrative expenses, reduced by program fees, divided by net premiums earned.
(4)Combined ratio is defined as Loss and LAE ratio plus Expense Ratio.
(5)Represents Ambac stockholders equity in the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment, including intercompany eliminations.
The Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment has grown significantly since underwriting its first program in May 2021. Twenty-seven programs were authorized to issue policies as of December 31, 2024. The growth in both the number and size of these programs has contributed to the increase in gross and net premiums written, net premiums earned, program fees, losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred and amortization of deferred acquisition costs. Additionally, EBITDA and pre-tax income has increased since 2022 due to the growth of the business and, in 2024, due to the gain on sale of CNIC, resulting in a gain of approximately $7,500 The combined ratios have decreased since 2022 as Everspan has begun to gain scale, diversify its book of net insured business and benefit from sliding scale commissions that helped to partially moderate changes in the loss and LAE ratio.
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| Ambac Financial Group, Inc. | 37 | 2024 Form 10-K |
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G&A Expenses General and administrative costs increased for the year ended December 31, 2024, relative to the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily resulting from the growth in Everspan's staffing and operations. The impact of growing operations was muted in 2023 compared to 2022 by costs incurred in 2022 in connection with the acquisition of additional shell insurance companies.
| Insurance Distribution | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year Ended December 31, | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
| Premiums placed | $ | 493,372 | $ | 230,606 | $ | 135,467 | |||||
| Commission income | $ | 92,023 | $ | 51,281 | $ | 30,695 | |||||
| Commission expense | 40,876 | 29,465 | 17,641 | ||||||||
| Net commissions | 51,147 | 21,816 | 13,054 | ||||||||
| Net investment income | 787 | 64 | — | ||||||||
| Net gains (losses) on derivatives | 106 | — | — | ||||||||
| Other income (expense) | 6,320 | 200 | 715 | ||||||||
| Expenses: | |||||||||||
| General and administrative expenses | 38,707 | 10,598 | 6,293 | ||||||||
| EBITDA | 19,653 | 11,483 | 7,476 | ||||||||
| Depreciation | 8 | 42 | 31 | ||||||||
| Intangible amortization | 17,602 | 4,152 | 2,921 | ||||||||
| Pretax income (loss) | $ | (7,809) | $ | 7,289 | $ | 4,524 | |||||
| Ambac's stockholders equity (1) | $ | 276,886 | $ | 105,377 | $ | 92,802 |
(1) Represents the share of Ambac stockholders equity for each subsidiary within the Insurance Distribution segment, including intercompany eliminations.
Ambac's Insurance Distribution companies are compensated for their services primarily by commissions paid by insurance carriers for underwriting, structuring and/or administering polices and, in some cases, the managing of claims under an agency agreement. Commission revenues are usually based on a percentage of the premiums placed. In addition, we are eligible to receive profit sharing contingent commissions on certain of its programs based on the underwriting results of the policies it places with the carrier, which may cause some variability in revenue and earnings.
The Insurance Distribution segment placed premiums for its carriers of approximately $493,372 for the year ended December 31, 2024, up $262,766 or 114% as compared to the year ended December 31, 2023. The increase was primarily driven by acquisitions and organic growth. Premiums placed were approximately $230,606 for the year ended December 31, 2023, up $95,139 or 70% compared to the year ended December 31, 2022. The increase was primarily driven by acquisitions and organic growth.
The Insurance Distribution pretax loss for the year ended December 31, 2024, was ($7,810), down $15,098 or 207%, compared to year ended December 31, 2023. The decrease was primarily driven by an increase in intangible amortization and interest expense related to acquisitions. Pretax income for the year end December 31, 2023, was $7,288, up $2,765 or 61% compared to December 31, 2022. The increase was primarily driven by an increase in commission income due to acquisitions and organic growth.
The Insurance Distribution EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2024 was $19,653, up $8,170 or 71% compared to the year ended December 31, 2023. The increase was primarily driven by increase in commission income due to acquisitions and organic growth. The EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2023, was $11,483, up $4,007 or 54% compared to the year ended December 31, 2022. The increase was primarily driven by increase in commission income due to acquisitions and organic growth.
Insurance Distribution businesses may experience seasonal impacts on their revenues and operations. For example, Employer Stop Loss business, our largest A&H line of business, has seasonality in January and July, which results in revenue and earnings concentrations in the first and third quarters each calendar year. Seasonal impacts on the Insurance Distribution segment, and therefore Ambac's results, may increase or decrease over time depending on the relative growth of certain classes of business as well as acquisitions.
G&A Expenses General and administrative expenses for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased as compared to the year ended December 31, 2023, as a result of the addition of the operating expenses of Riverton and Beat, which were acquired in August 2023 and August 2024, respectively. General and Administrative expenses for the year ended December 31, 2023, increased as compared to the year ended December 31, 2022, as a result of the addition of the operating expenses of All Trans and Capacity Marine which were both acquired in November 2022, and Riverton acquisition in August 2023.
Corporate
Corporate consists of our holding company and shared services operations ("Corporate"). Corporate provides financial, technological and human resources to Ambac's two segments and is responsible for the function of AFG as a publicly traded company.
Corporate revenues totaled $10,259 and $9,080 and $3,737 for the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022, respectively. Corporate revenue is mostly generated from investment of AFG's liquid resources and investment results from its previously made strategic investments, including certain investments in MGA/Us and an insurtech fund. Investment revenues comprised of net investment income and net investment gains (losses), including impairments were $6,764, $9,353 and $2,883 in 2024, 2023 and 2022, respectively. The decline from 2023 to 2024 is attributable to the use of liquid resources for the acquisition of Beat. The increase from 2022 to 2023 reflected higher short-term yields and investment of funds that were in intercompany investments for part of 2022. Corporate also had net derivative gains in 2024 of $3,910 related to FX hedging of the purchase price of Beat. The remainder of Corporate revenues in the periods were driven by derivative gains and losses on a warrant to purchase equity of a minority owned MGA/U.
As a result of the Company reporting the results of operations of AAC as discontinued operations, certain corporate costs charged to AAC have been reported in Net income from continuing operations and included in Corporate expenses for all years presented. Corporate expenses were $74,516 for the year ended
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| Ambac Financial Group, Inc. | 38 | 2024 Form 10-K |
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December 31, 2024, up $33,542 from the year ended December 31, 2023. Corporate expenses for the year ended 2024 and 2023 included compensation expenses of $25,791 and $29,664 and non-compensation and depreciation expense of $48,725 and $11,310, respectively. The increase in non-compensation corporate expenses from 2023 to 2024 mainly related to higher acquisition related costs of $26,821 including legal and advisory fees associated with the Beat acquisition, restructuring costs of $6,990 in anticipation of the sale of AAC, and the write-down of certain capitalized software costs.
Corporate expenses were $40,974 for the year ended 2023, up $3,353 for the year ended 2022. The increase in Corporate expenses from 2022 to 2023 mainly related to compensation from growing the Cirrata businesses. Corporate expenses for the year ended 2023 and 2022 included compensation expenses of $29,664 and $26,842 and non-compensation and depreciation expense of $11,310 and $10,779, respectively.
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Holding Company Liquidity
AFG is a holding company organized as a legal entity separate and distinct from its operating subsidiaries. AFG’s liquidity is primarily dependent on its net assets, excluding the operating subsidiaries that it owns, totaling $119,214 as of December 31, 2024, and $146,583, as of December 31, 2023, and secondarily on investment income, distributions, tax and expense sharing payments from its operating subsidiaries and third party capital (e.g. from credit facilities and equity issuance).
| December 31, | 2024 | 2023 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and short-term investments | $ | 74,423 | $ | 96,563 | |||
| Other investments (1) | 28,117 | 32,392 | |||||
| Other net assets | 16,674 | 17,628 | |||||
| Total | $ | 119,214 | $ | 146,583 |
(1)Includes strategic debt and minority equity investments in insurance services businesses of $20,617 and $26,420 at December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively.
The decrease in AFG net assets, excluding its equity investments in subsidiaries, during 2024 was driven by net cash outflows for the acquisition of Beat Capital Partners Limited ("Beat"), transaction costs associated with the sale of AAC, and other operating expenses, partially offset by interest income and distributions received from Insurance Distribution subsidiaries.
•Effective July 31, 2024, AFG closed the acquisition of a 60% controlling interest in Beat. In connection with the acquisition, Cirrata incurred $150,000 of debt maturing in 364-days funded by a global bank (the "Credit Facility"). Repayment of debt under the Credit Facility is guaranteed by AFG. AFG is required to repay this debt upon the closing of the sale of AAC or otherwise refinance such short-term debt with longer-term debt. The Credit Facility includes covenants that restrict our ability to manage capital resources by limiting, among other actions, the issuance of debt or capital stock; the creation of liens; the disposition of assets; engaging in transactions with affiliates; making restricted payments, including dividends
and the purchase or redemption of capital stock; and making acquisitions and other investments. The Credit Facility also requires the prepayment of the borrowings thereunder with proceeds of certain debt or equity issuances and certain asset sales. These requirements will impact our financial and operational flexibility while the Credit Facility remains in place.
•Everspan's ability to make future dividend payments will mostly depend on its future profitability relative to its capital needs to support growth. Everspan is not expected to pay dividends in the near term.
•Under an inter-company cost allocation agreement, AFG is reimbursed by its subsidiaries, including AAC through the date of its sale, for a portion of certain operating costs and expenses
•If AFG were to not sell AAC, its ability to receive dividends from AAC and the timing of any such potential dividends would depend on receipt of regulatory approval and the satisfaction of certain obligations senior to AFG's equity interest.
•Cirrata does not have any regulatory restrictions on its ability to make distributions. AFG received distributions from Cirrata of $10,739 and $8,032 during the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023.
Subject to the required approvals for the sale of AAC as described in Note 5. Discontinued Operation, AFG will receive proceeds of $420,000. From the proceeds, AFG, is required to purchase AAC's co-investment ($62,000 plus a 7.5% return from the date of funding) in Cirrata V LLC, the holding company established to acquire Beat, repay the Credit Facility ($150,000 plus any accrued and unpaid interest) and pay other transaction expenses.
AFG's principal uses of liquidity are: (i) the payment of operating expenses, including interest on indebtedness and costs to explore opportunities to grow and diversify Ambac and (ii) making capital investments to acquire, grow and/or capitalize new and/or existing businesses; such capital investments include investments in technology to support the efficient operation of our Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses.
•Funding puts, calls and other capital commitments could require payments from AFG, the magnitude of which may depend on the performance of the underlying businesses and other considerations, of approximately $358,000 through 2030.
•AFG may also provide short-term financial support, primarily in the form of loans, to its operating subsidiaries to support their operating requirements. AFG supported the development of the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance business, and its acquisitions, with cash contributions of $6,000 to the Everspan group of companies during the year ended December 31, 2023.
In the opinion of the Company’s management, the net assets of AFG are currently sufficient to meet AFG’s current liquidity
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requirements. However, events, opportunities or circumstances could arise that may cause AFG to seek additional capital (e.g. through the issuance of debt, equity or hybrid securities).
Operating Companies' Liquidity
Insurance:
Sources of liquidity for Everspan are primarily through funds generated from premiums, reinsurance recoveries, fees, investment income and maturities and sales of investments.
Cash provided from these sources is used primarily for claim payments, loss expenses, acquisition costs, operating expenses, reinsurance payments and purchases of securities and other investments.
Everspan manages its liquidity risk by projecting cash flows and maintaining specified levels of cash and short-term investments at all times. It is the opinion of the Company’s management that the insurance subsidiaries’ near term liquidity needs will be adequately met from the sources described above.
Insurance Distribution:
The liquidity requirements of our Insurance Distribution subsidiaries are met primarily by funds generated from commission (both base and profit commissions) and fees. Base commissions and fees are generally received monthly, whereas profit commissions are received only if the business underwritten is profitable. Cash provided from these sources is used primarily for commissions paid to sub-producers, operating expenses and distributions to AFG and other members.
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement Discussion
The following table summarizes the net cash flows for continuing operations for the periods presented.
| Year Ended December 31, | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash provided by (used in): | ||||||||||
| Operating activities | $ | 762 | $ | 36,948 | $ | 70,368 | ||||
| Investing activities | (166,371) | (26,679) | (41,162) | |||||||
| Financing activities | 194,219 | (10,986) | (19,235) | |||||||
| Net cash flow | $ | 28,610 | $ | (717) | $ | 9,971 |
Operating Activities for Continuing Operations
Operating cash flows during the year ended December 31, 2024 were adversely impacted by transaction related costs for the acquisition of Beat and the sale of AAC, together with interest payments on Cirrata's short term borrowing. Operating cash flows for the year ended December 31, 2023, were lower than 2022 primarily due to the receipt of accrued interest in connection with the sale of AAC surplus note investments during 2022, partially offset by growth in the Everspan and Cirrata businesses.
Future operating cash flows will primarily be impacted by net premium collections, investment coupon receipts, fee and net commission revenues, operating expenses, net claim and loss expense payments and debt interest payments.
Investing Activities for Continuing Operations
Investing activities for the year ended December 31, 2024, included net cash used in the Beat acquisition of $243,776 and net cash proceeds from the sale of CNIC of $14,119.
Investing activities for the years ended December 31, 2023, and December 31, 2022 included net cash used in MGA/U acquisitions of $6,953 and $18,442, respectively.
Financing Activities for Continuing Operations
Financing activities for the year ended December 31, 2024, included borrowing of $147,000 under a short-term credit facility and receipt of a $62,000 co-investment from AAC (discontinued operation) to fund the acquisition of Beat and share repurchases of $11,698. Concurrent with the AAC Sale, AFG will purchase AAC's co-investment for an amount equal to AAC's $62,000 investment plus 7.5% per annum thereon.
Financing activities for the years ended December 31, 2023, and December 31, 2022, included share repurchases of $4,510 and $14,217, respectively.
Cash Flows from Discontinued Operations
Cash flows pertaining to discontinued operations are reported separately on the Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows. The primary driver of the cash flows from discontinued operations was the continued run-off of the financial guarantee business. Since the agreement to sell AAC, the operations have been substantially separated and the potential impacts on future liquidity to the continuing operations are expected to be insignificant.
BALANCE SHEET
Total assets decreased by approximately $369,942 from December 31, 2023, to $8,058,378 at December 31, 2024, (decrease of $1,249,256 related to discontinued operation, partially offset by an increase of $879,314 from continuing operations).
Total liabilities decreased by approximately $133,770 from December 31, 2023, to $6,862,857 as of December 31, 2024, (decrease of $654,181 relating to discontinued operation, partially offset by an increase of $520,411 from continuing operations).
As of December 31, 2024, total stockholders’ equity was $1,054,661, compared with total stockholders’ equity of $1,414,614 at December 31, 2023. This decrease was primarily the result of the net loss attributable to common stockholders for the year ended December 31, 2024 of $556,449 and translation losses on the consolidation of AFG's foreign subsidiaries of $22,156, partially offset by increases to nonredeemable NCI of $149,095 due to the Beat acquisition, adjustments to the redemption value of redeemable NCI of $53,210 and the issuance of common stock for the Beat acquisition of $29,229.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Ambac Financial Group, Inc. | 40 | 2024 Form 10-K |
Table of Contents,
Discontinued Operation:
Assets and Liabilities Held-for-Sale. Assets held-for-sale decreased to $6,267,200 at December 31, 2024, from $7,516,456 as December 31, 2023. The decrease is primarily due to the recording of a valuation allowance for the loss on disposal of AAC of $570,145 and a decrease in VIE assets of $523,974. Liabilities held-for-sale decreased to $5,887,685 at December 31, 2024, from $6,541,866 as December 31, 2023, primarily due to a decrease in VIE liabilities of $511,689. VIE assets and liabilities decreased primarily due to paydowns and the impact of exchange rates on balances denominated in British Pound Sterling.
Continuing Operations:
The following discusses changes in assets, liabilities and stockholders' equity, excluding assets and liabilities held-for-sale related to the pending sale of AAC, as of December 31, 2024, compared to December 31, 2023.
Ambac's acquisition of a controlling interest in Beat had a significant impact on the comparability of the balance sheet between December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023. Refer to Note 4. Business Combination to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for details of the assets and liabilities acquired at the acquisition date.
Assets:
Investment Portfolio
Ambac's investment portfolio is managed under established guidelines designed to meet the investment objectives of Everspan and AFG. Invested assets of the Cirrata companies consist solely of cash, short-term investments and other money market funds. Refer to "Description of the Business — Investments and Investment Policy" in this Annual Report on Form 10-K located in Part I. Item 1, for further description of Ambac's investment policies and applicable regulations.
The following table summarizes the composition of Ambac’s investment portfolio, at carrying value at December 31, 2024 and 2023:
| December 31, 2024 | December 31, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consolidated | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consolidated | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed maturity securities | $ | 157,020 | $ | — | $ | — | $ | 157,020 | $ | 121,304 | $ | — | $ | 13,920 | $ | 135,224 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Short-term | 35,727 | 27,435 | 64,439 | 127,601 | 41,172 | 3,651 | 155,688 | 200,511 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other investments | — | 176 | 28,117 | 28,293 | — | — | 18,316 | 18,316 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total investments | $ | 192,747 | $ | 27,611 | $ | 92,556 | $ | 312,914 | $ | 161,976 | $ | 3,651 | $ | 187,924 | $ | 354,051 |
Refer to Note 6. Investments to the Consolidated Financial Statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8 for information about the composition of fixed maturity securities and other investments by asset class.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Ambac Financial Group, Inc. | 41 | 2024 Form 10-K |
Table of Contents,
The following charts provide the ratings distribution of the fixed maturity investment portfolio based on fair value at December 31, 2024 and 2023. Ratings represent the lower of ratings provided by S&P or Moody's when ratings are available from both agencies.
Premium Receivables. Ambac's premium receivables increased to $57,222 at December 31, 2024, from $45,893 at December 31, 2023. As further discussed in Note 8. Insurance Contracts to the Consolidated Financial Statements, in this Annual Report Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8, the increase is primarily due to growth in the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance Segment. All premium receivables are in a payment currency of U.S. Dollars.
Reinsurance Recoverable on Paid and Unpaid Losses. Ambac has reinsurance in place pursuant to quota share, surplus share treaty and facultative agreements. To minimize its exposure to losses from reinsurers, Ambac (i) monitors the financial condition of its reinsurers; (ii) is entitled to receive collateral from its reinsurance counterparties under certain reinsurance contracts; and (iii) has certain cancellation rights that can be exercised in the event of rating agency downgrades of a reinsurer (among other events and circumstances). For those reinsurance counterparties that do not currently post collateral, Ambac’s reinsurers are well capitalized, highly rated, authorized capacity providers. Ambac benefited from letters of credit and collateral amounting to approximately $62,792 from its reinsurers at December 31, 2024.
As of December 31, 2024 and 2023, reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses were $306,191 and $164,997,
respectively, an increase driven from the growth of the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance Segment.
Intangible Assets, net of accumulated depreciation. Intangible assets includes (i) intangible assets established as part of the acquisition of Xchange in 2020, All Trans and Capacity Marine in 2022, Riverton in 2023 and Beat in 2024; and (ii) indefinite-lived intangible assets established as part of the acquisition of admitted carriers in both 2021 and 2022.
As of December 31, 2024 and 2023, net intangible assets totaled $344,775 and 61,403, respectively. The increase is driven by intangibles established from the acquisition of Beat, partially offset by amortization and foreign currently translation.
Goodwill. As of December 31, 2024 and 2023, goodwill totaled $418,235 and $69,694 respectively. The increase is primarily driven by the acquisition of Beat and goodwill of $357,316. All of the goodwill was assigned to the Insurance Distribution segment.
Liabilities:
Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves. Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are estimates of the ultimate liability for unpaid losses and loss expenses for claims that have been reported and claims that have been incurred, but not yet reported as of the balance sheet date.
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves by line of business were as follows as of December 31, 2024 and 2023
| December 31, 2024 | December 31, 2023 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Gross | Net | Gross | Net | ||||||||
| Commercial Auto | $ | 158,471 | $ | 28,720 | $ | 107,005 | $ | 21,913 | ||||
| Excess and General Liability | 85,459 | 14,857 | 22,865 | 3,925 | ||||||||
| Workers Compensation | 14,465 | 14,465 | 5,246 | 5,246 | ||||||||
| Non-standard personal auto | 12,689 | 12,000 | 5,843 | 5,136 | ||||||||
| Surety | 11,217 | — | 4,763 | — | ||||||||
| ULAE | 12,238 | 6,578 | 6,085 | 4,527 | ||||||||
| Other (1) | 54,523 | 2,177 | 45,282 | 41 | ||||||||
| Loss and Loss Expense Reserves | $ | 349,062 | $ | 78,797 | $ | 197,089 | $ | 40,788 |
(1) Includes $35,146 and $0 loss and loss expense reserves on a gross and net of reinsurance basis at December 31, 2024 and $43,751 and $0 loss and loss expense reserves on a gross and net of reinsurance basis at December 31, 2023 related to legacy liabilities obtained from the acquisitions of Providence Washington Insurance Company, Greenwood Insurance Company and Consolidated Specialty Insurance Company. All legacy liabilities remain obligations of affiliates of the sellers through reinsurance.
The process for determining the level of loss and loss adjustment expense reserves is subject to certain estimates and judgments. Refer to the "Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates" and “Results of Operations” sections of Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, in addition to Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies and Loss Reserves sections included in Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies and Note 8. Insurance Contracts, respectively, to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, for further information on loss and loss adjustment expenses.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Ambac Financial Group, Inc. | 42 | 2024 Form 10-K |
Table of Contents,
Short-term Debt. Ambac borrowed under a short-term credit facility to provide partial funding of the acquisition of Beat in 2024. The carrying value of this short term debt is $150,000 as of December 31, 2024. Ambac had no debt related to its continuing operations as of December 31, 2023.
Commission Payable. Commission payables are commissions due to sub producers for placing insurance contracts on behalf of the MGAs and amounts due to UK Syndicates that provide advanced commissions to fund short term liquidity needs for MGAs. The commission payable at December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023 was $71,431 and $6,932. The increase is primarily due to higher advance commissions due from Syndicates.
Redeemable Noncontrolling Interest. The increase during 2024 was the net result of the remeasurement of the redemption value of put options provided to minority owners (NCI interest holders) of Cirrata entities acquired as if the put was exercised on December 31, 2024 and new put options issued during the acquisition of Beat during 2024. No put options are exercisable at December 31, 2024.
ACCOUNTING STANDARDS
Please refer to Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report Form 10-K for a discussion of the impact of recent accounting pronouncements on Ambac’s financial condition and results of operations.
U.S. STATUTORY BASIS FINANCIAL RESULTS
AFG's U.S. insurance subsidiaries prepare financial statements under accounting practices prescribed or permitted by its domiciliary state regulator (“SAP”) for determining and reporting the financial condition and results of operations of an insurance company. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (“NAIC”) Accounting Practices and Procedures manual (“NAIC SAP”) is adopted as a component of prescribed practices by each domiciliary state. For further information, see Note 9. Insurance Regulatory Restrictions to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report Form 10-K.
Everspan Indemnity Insurance Company
Everspan Indemnity Insurance Company’s statutory policyholder surplus was $125,235 at December 31, 2024, as compared to $108,051 at December 31, 2023.
The significant changes to policyholder surplus for the year ended December 31, 2024, were net income at Everspan Indemnity Insurance Company, including its subsidiaries, of $13,516 during the year ended December 31, 2024, primarily driven by the gain on sale of Consolidated National Insurance Company and continued growth of Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance Segment.
The significant differences between GAAP and SAP are that under SAP:
•Investment grade fixed maturity investments are stated at amortized cost and certain below investment grade fixed maturity investments are reported at the lower of amortized
cost or fair value. Under GAAP, all fixed maturity investments are reported at fair value.
•Majority owned subsidiaries are not consolidated; rather, the equity basis of accounting is utilized and the carrying values of these investments are subject to admissibility tests. The carrying values of Providence Washington Insurance Company, Greenwood Insurance Company, Consolidated National Insurance Company, and Consolidated Specialty Insurance Company include a goodwill component representing the acquisition cost in excess of the related entity's statutory surplus. Goodwill is amortized over ten years under SAP. Under GAAP, the initial acquisition of the companies were recorded as asset acquisitions, which required i) all net assets to initially be recorded at fair value and ii) the acquisition costs in excess of the fair value of net assets to be allocated to the bases of certain types of assets based on their relative fair values, if applicable. Acquired assets include intangible assets with indefinite lives. Such assets are not amortized, but their estimated useful lives are reevaluated each reporting period. No goodwill is recorded for asset acquisitions.
•Acquisition costs and ceding commissions, other than excess ceding commissions, are expensed or recognized at the time of a transaction. Under GAAP, acquisition costs and ceding commissions are deferred and recognized over the life of the related transaction.
•Unearned premiums and loss reserves are presented net of ceded amounts, while under GAAP, they are reflected gross of ceded amounts.
NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
In addition to reporting the Company’s quarterly financial results in accordance with GAAP, the Company is reporting non-GAAP financial measures: EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin, Organic Revenue Growth Rate (Insurance Distribution segment only), Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Net Income Margin. These amounts are derived from our consolidated financial information, but are not presented in our consolidated financial results.
We present non-GAAP supplemental financial information because we believe such information is of interest to the investment community, and that it provides greater transparency and enhanced visibility into the underlying drivers and performance of our businesses on a basis that may not be otherwise apparent on a GAAP basis. We view these non-GAAP financial measures as important indicators when assessing and evaluating our performance on a segmented and consolidated basis and they are presented to improve the comparability of our results between periods by eliminating the impact of the items that may not be representative of our core operating performance. These non-GAAP financial measures are not substitutes for the Company’s GAAP reporting, should not be viewed in isolation and may differ from similar reporting provided by other companies, which may define non-GAAP measures differently.
Beginning December 31, 2024, Ambac replaced the non-GAAP measure Adjusted Net Income with new non-GAAP measures Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Net Income Margin and added Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin to
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Ambac Financial Group, Inc. | 43 | 2024 Form 10-K |
Table of Contents,
better align with other participants in the Property & Casualty insurance industry, including insurance carriers and other peers in the insurance distribution business.
The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure. A tabular reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most comparable GAAP financial measure is also presented below.
EBITDA — EBITDA is net income (loss) from continuing operations before interest expense, income taxes, depreciation and amortization of intangible assets.
Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin
We define Adjusted EBITDA as net income (loss) from continuing operations before interest expense, income taxes, depreciation, amortization of intangible assets, change in fair value of contingent consideration and certain items of income and expense, including share-based compensation expense, acquisition and integration related expenses, severance, and other exceptional or non-recurring items, including those related to raising capital. We believe that adjusted EBITDA is an appropriate measure of operating performance because it eliminates the impact of income and expenses that may obfuscate business performance, and that the presentation of this measure enhances an investor's understanding of our financial performance.
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consoli-dated | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consoli-dated | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consoli-dated | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) from continuing operations | $ | 10,469 | $ | (6,881) | $ | (62,509) | $ | (58,921) | $ | 335 | $ | 7,133 | $ | (30,701) | $ | (23,232) | $ | (6,345) | $ | 4,524 | $ | (33,422) | $ | (35,244) | ||||||||||||
| Adjustments: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Interest expense | — | 9,379 | — | 9,379 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Income taxes | 1,753 | (928) | (1,748) | (924) | 48 | 156 | (1,193) | (989) | (1) | — | (462) | (462) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Depreciation | — | 481 | 1,864 | 2,345 | — | 42 | 1,036 | 1,078 | — | 31 | 841 | 872 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Intangible amortization | — | 17,602 | — | 17,602 | — | 4,152 | — | 4,152 | — | 2,921 | — | 2,921 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EBITDA (1) | $ | 12,222 | $ | 19,653 | $ | (62,393) | $ | (30,518) | $ | 383 | $ | 11,483 | $ | (30,858) | $ | (18,991) | $ | (6,346) | $ | 7,476 | $ | (33,043) | $ | (31,913) | ||||||||||||
| Add: Impact of noncontrolling interests | — | (6,448) | — | (6,448) | — | (2,102) | — | (2,102) | — | (1,463) | — | (1,463) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ambac EBITDA | 12,222 | 13,208 | (62,396) | (36,966) | 383 | 9,381 | (30,858) | (21,093) | (6,347) | 6,013 | (33,043) | (33,377) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net income margin | 8.3 | % | (6.9) | % | (609.2) | % | (25.0) | % | 0.5 | % | 13.8 | % | (338.1) | % | (18.6) | % | (34.4) | % | 14.4 | % | (894.1) | % | (65.7) | % | ||||||||||||
| Net income margin to Ambac common stockholders | 8.3 | % | (7.3) | % | (609.2) | % | (25.1) | % | 0.5 | % | 11.3 | % | (338.1) | % | (19.7) | % | (34.3) | % | 11.6 | % | (894.1) | % | (67.4) | % | ||||||||||||
| EBITDA margin | 9.7 | % | 19.8 | % | (608.1) | % | (12.9) | % | 0.6 | % | 22.3 | % | (339.8) | % | (15.2) | % | (34.4) | % | 23.8 | % | (884.0) | % | (59.5) | % | ||||||||||||
| EBITDA margin to Ambac common stockholders | 9.7 | % | 13.3 | % | (608.1) | % | (15.7) | % | 0.6 | % | 18.2 | % | (339.8) | % | (16.9) | % | (34.4) | % | 19.1 | % | (884.0) | % | (62.3) | % | ||||||||||||
| Add: Acquisition and integration related expenses | — | — | 27,388 | 27,388 | — | — | 567 | 567 | — | — | 593 | 593 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Equity-based compensation expense | 414 | — | 8,941 | 9,355 | 634 | — | 11,632 | 12,266 | 208 | — | 11,024 | 11,232 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Severance and restructuring expense | — | 248 | 7,352 | 7,600 | — | — | — | — | 481 | — | — | 481 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Other non-operating (income) losses | (7,500) | — | 2,318 | (5,182) | — | — | 279 | 279 | — | — | (935) | (935) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA | 5,136 | 19,904 | (16,397) | 8,643 | 1,017 | 11,483 | (18,380) | (5,879) | (5,658) | 7,476 | (22,361) | (20,543) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Ambac common stockholders | 5,136 | 13,456 | (16,397) | 2,195 | 1,017 | 9,381 | (18,380) | (7,981) | (5,658) | 6,013 | (22,361) | (22,006) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 4.1 | % | 20.1 | % | (159.8) | % | 3.7 | % | 1.6 | % | 22.3 | % | (202.4) | % | (4.7) | % | (30.6) | % | 23.8 | % | (598.2) | % | (38.3) | % | ||||||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin to Ambac common stockholders | 4.1 | % | 13.6 | % | (159.8) | % | 0.9 | % | 1.6 | % | 18.2 | % | (202.4) | % | (6.4) | % | (30.6) | % | 19.1 | % | (598.2) | % | (41.0) | % |
Organic Revenue Growth (Insurance Distribution only)
Organic revenue is based on commissions and fees for the relevant period by excluding (i) the first twelve months of commissions and fees generated from acquisitions and (ii) commissions and fees from divestitures (iii) and other items such as contingent commissions, profit commissions and the impact of changes in foreign exchange rates.
Organic revenue growth is the change in organic revenue period-to-period, with prior period results adjusted to (i) include commissions and fees that were excluded from organic revenue in the prior period and reached the twelve-month owned mark in the current period, and (ii) exclude commissions and fees related to divestitures from organic revenue.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Ambac Financial Group, Inc. | 44 | 2024 Form 10-K |
Table of Contents,
Organic revenue growth rate to Total revenue growth rate, the most directly comparable GAAP measure, for each of the periods indicated is as follows (in percentages):
| Year Ended December 31, | Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | % Growth | 2023 | 2022 | % Growth | ||||||||||||||||
| Total Insurance Distribution revenue (1) | $ | 99,236 | $ | 51,546 | 48.1 | % | $ | 51,546 | $ | 31,410 | 64.1 | % | |||||||||
| Less: Acquired revenues | (45,202) | — | (16,446) | — | |||||||||||||||||
| Less: Profit commission and contingent commission income | (4,273) | (4,489) | (4,489) | (3,745) | |||||||||||||||||
| Total Organic Revenue & Growth Percentage | $ | 49,761 | $ | 47,057 | 5.4 | % | $ | 30,611 | $ | 27,665 | 10.6 | % |
(1)Total Insurance Distribution revenue includes investment income.
Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Net Income Margin
We define Adjusted net income as net income (loss) from continuing operations attributable to Ambac adjusted for amortization of intangible assets, change in fair value of contingent consideration and certain items of income and expense, including share-based compensation expense, acquisition and integration related expenses, severance and non-recurring income and loss items that, in the opinion of management, significantly affect the period-over-period assessment of operating results, and the related tax effect of those adjustments. Per share amounts exclude any impact of revaluing non-controlling interests as otherwise reported under GAAP earnings per share. We believe that adjusted net income is an appropriate measure of operating performance because it eliminates the impact of income and expenses that may obfuscate business performance.
| Year Ended December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consoli-dated | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consoli-dated | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consoli-dated | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) (Continuing Operations) | $ | 10,469 | $ | (6,881) | $ | (62,509) | $ | (58,921) | $ | 335 | $ | 7,133 | $ | (30,701) | $ | (23,232) | $ | (6,346) | $ | 4,524 | $ | (33,422) | $ | (35,244) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Adjustments: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Acquisition and integration related expenses | — | — | 27,388 | 27,388 | — | — | 567 | 567 | — | — | 593 | 593 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Intangible amortization | — | 17,602 | — | 17,602 | — | 4,152 | — | 4,152 | — | 2,921 | — | 2,921 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Equity-based compensation expense | 414 | — | 8,941 | 9,355 | 634 | — | 11,632 | 12,266 | 208 | — | 11,024 | 11,232 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Severance and restructuring expense | — | 248 | 7,352 | 7,600 | — | — | — | — | 481 | — | — | 481 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Add: Other non-operating income (losses) (1) | (7,500) | — | 2,318 | (5,182) | — | — | 279 | 279 | — | — | (935) | (935) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted net income (loss) before tax and NCI | 3,383 | 10,969 | (16,510) | (2,158) | 969 | 11,285 | (18,223) | (5,968) | (5,657) | 7,445 | (22,740) | (20,952) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Income tax effects | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted net income (loss) before NCI | 3,383 | 10,969 | (16,510) | (2,158) | 969 | 11,285 | (18,223) | (5,968) | (5,657) | 7,445 | (22,740) | (20,952) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net (income) loss attributable to NCI | — | (6,448) | — | (6,448) | — | (2,102) | — | (2,102) | — | (1,463) | — | (1,463) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted net income (loss) attributable to Ambac stockholders | $ | 3,383 | $ | 4,521 | $ | (16,510) | $ | (8,606) | $ | 969 | $ | 9,183 | $ | (18,223) | $ | (8,070) | $ | (5,657) | $ | 5,982 | $ | (22,740) | $ | (22,415) |
(1) Other non-operating expense includes one time add-backs related to gain on sale of CNIC, partially offset by losses related to minority interest strategy and write down of certain capitalized software. costs.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Ambac Financial Group, Inc. | 45 | 2024 Form 10-K |
Table of Contents,
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consoli-dated | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consoli-dated | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consoli-dated | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) margin | 8.3 | % | (6.9) | % | (609.2) | % | (25.0) | % | 0.5 | % | 13.8 | % | (338.1) | % | (18.6) | % | (34.4) | % | 14.4 | % | (894.1) | % | (65.7) | % | ||||||||||||
| Adjusted Net income (loss) attributable to Ambac stockholders margin | 2.7 | % | 4.6 | % | (160.9) | % | (3.6) | % | 1.5 | % | 17.8 | % | (200.7) | % | (6.5) | % | (30.6) | % | 19.0 | % | (608.3) | % | (41.8) | % |
FY 2023 10-K MD&A
SEC filing source: 0000874501-24-000040.
Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations ($ and £ in millions)
The objectives of our Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (“MD&A”) are to provide users of our consolidated financial statements with the following:
•A narrative explanation from the perspective of management of our financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, liquidity and certain other factors that may affect future results;
•Context to the consolidated financial statements; and
•Information that allows assessment of the likelihood that past performance is indicative of future performance.
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements in Item 8 of this Report and the matters described under Item 1A. Risk Factors in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023. Refer to Item 1. Description of the Business and Note 1. Background and Business Description for a description of our business and our key strategies to achieve our primary goal to maximize shareholder value.
Organization of Information
MD&A includes the following sections:
| Page | |
|---|---|
| Executive Summary | 29 |
| Critical Accounting Estimates | 30 |
| Financial Guarantees in Force | 33 |
| Results of Operations | 37 |
| Liquidity and Capital Resources | 44 |
| Balance Sheet | 45 |
| Accounting Standards | 50 |
| Ambac Assurance Statutory Basis Financial Results | 50 |
| Ambac UK Financial Results under UK Accounting Principles | 52 |
| Non-GAAP Financial Measures | 53 |
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
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| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 28 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
AFG Net Assets:
AFG has the following net assets to support its goals and strategies, including the development and growth of its Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses, acquisitions and capital management. AFG does not have any commitment or other obligation to provide capital or liquidity to AAC, whose financial guarantee business has been in run-off since 2008. As of December 31, 2023 and 2022, AFG's stand alone net assets, excluding its equity investments in subsidiaries, were $211 and $223, respectively.
| December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and short-term investments | $ | 156 | $ | 178 | |||
| Other investments (1) | 32 | 28 | |||||
| Other net assets | 23 | 17 | |||||
| Total | $ | 211 | $ | 223 |
(1)Includes strategic minority investments in insurance services businesses of $26.
The decrease in AFG net assets, excluding its equity investments in subsidiaries, during 2023 was driven by operating expenses, capital contributions to subsidiaries, the acquisition of Riverton Insurance Agency and share repurchases, partially offset by interest income and distributions from subsidiaries.
AFG's subsidiaries/businesses are divided into three segments, the key value metrics of which are summarized below along with other recent developments.
| Year Ended December 31, 2023 | Year Ended December 31, 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ in millions) | Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consoli-dated | Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consoli-dated | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Premiums placed | $ | 231 | $ | 231 | $ | 135 | $ | 135 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross premiums written | $ | 15 | $ | 273 | 288 | $ | (20) | $ | 146 | 127 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net premiums written | (35) | 80 | 44 | (6) | 29 | 23 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total revenues | 144 | 64 | 52 | $ | 9 | 269 | 451 | 18 | 31 | $ | 4 | 505 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total expenses | 127 | 64 | 44 | 22 | 257 | (89) | 25 | 27 | 17 | (20) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pretax income (loss) | 17 | — | 7 | (13) | 12 | 540 | (6) | 5 | (14) | 525 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EBITDA | 107 | — | 11 | (12) | 107 | 754 | (6) | 7 | (14) | 742 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ambac Stockholders’ Equity (1) | 923 | 122 | 105 | 211 | 1,362 | 826 | 110 | 93 | 223 | 1,252 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Non-redeemable noncontrolling interest | 51 | 2 | 53 | 51 | 2 | 53 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total stockholders’ equity | 974 | 124 | 105 | 211 | 1,415 | 877 | 112 | 93 | 223 | 1,305 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Redeemable noncontrolling interest | 17 | 17 | 20 | 20 |
(1)Represents Ambac's stockholders equity for each segment, including intercompany eliminations.
Banking Sector Crisis of 2023
The collapse of several banks in early 2023 precipitated a sudden loss of confidence in the banking system, prompting bank runs and the U.S. government to provide direct support to failed banks and, through an expansive emergency lending program, the system more broadly. In the U.S., this crisis was in part a consequence of rising interest rates, resulting in large declines in the market value of U.S. Treasury and government-backed debt held by banking institutions. The risk of additional bank financial stress and/or failures due to asset-liability mismatches or other risks, such as outsized exposure to commercial real estate, remains. Despite actions by government agencies and regulators to mitigate the consequences of these bank failures by providing liquidity and guaranteeing uninsured deposits, there is no guarantee that they will provide similar support in the event of additional bank failures. In Europe, regulators stepped in to facilitate mergers of stressed banks into more stable institutions. The ability or willingness of healthy banks to merge with stressed banks in the future is also subject to significant uncertainty.
Ambac's cash balances held at banks was $27 as of December 31, 2023 and $42 as of December 31, 2022. Substantially all of these cash balances were uninsured as of December 31, 2023 and December 31, 2022 because they either (i) exceeded the two hundred and fifty thousand FDIC insurance limit or (ii) were held in foreign banks. These cash balances were held primarily with Ambac's main operating banks which are large money center and/or global banks. Ambac actively manages its cash balances to limit bank risk and to enhance yield by transferring most of its funds to government and prime money market funds. Included in the cash balances above is $16 of cash of companies Ambac has acquired within its insurance distribution businesses that are held in regional banks. The management of these balances and the associated bank exposure is under consideration as part of Ambac's ongoing integration of these acquired businesses. In addition, cash balances held by variable interest entities ("VIEs") that are consolidated in Ambac's financial statements as a result of Ambac's financial guarantees totaled $246 and $17 as of December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. These amounts relate primarily to cash collateral posted against derivative assets and reserve balances
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| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 29 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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maintained under the VIEs' governing documents and are not directly managed by Ambac.
Ambac also has exposure to banks through its fixed maturity investment portfolio totaling $169 and $119 as of December 31, 2023 and December 31, 2022, respectively. All of these investments are managed by third-party asset management firms which follow single and sector risk limits established by Ambac. The average rating of our fixed income investment in banks was A- as of December 31, 2023.
Financial Statement Impact of Foreign Currency:
The impact of foreign currency as reported in Ambac's Consolidated Statement of Total Comprehensive Income (Loss) for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022 included the following:
| ($ in millions) December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income (1) | $ | (3) | $ | 11 | |||
| Gain (losses) on foreign currency translation (net of tax) | 40 | (85) | |||||
| Unrealized gains (losses) on non-functional currency available-for-sale securities (net of tax) | (6) | 11 | |||||
| Impact on total comprehensive income (loss) | $ | 31 | $ | (63) |
(1) A portion of Ambac UK's, and to a lesser extent AAC's, assets and liabilities are denominated in currencies other than its functional currency and accordingly, we recognized net foreign currency transaction gains/(losses) as a result of changes to foreign currency rates through our Consolidated Statement of Total Comprehensive Income (Loss). Refer to Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further details on transaction gains and losses.
Future changes to currency rates, may adversely affect our financial results. Refer to Part II, Item 7A "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk" for further information on the impact of future currency rate changes on Ambac's financial instruments.
SEC Proposed Rules on Climate Related Information
On March 21, 2022, the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) proposed rule amendments that would require public companies to include certain climate-related information in their periodic reports and registration statements, including oversight and governance, material impacts (operational and financial), risk identification and management, and Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions (the “Proposed Rule”). For accelerated filers, such as Ambac, the Scope 1 and 2 emissions disclosures would require attestation from a third party. These new requirements, if adopted, would at the earliest take effect in fiscal year 2024 and begin to apply to SEC filings in 2025. Final climate disclosure rules have not yet been issued, however the rulemaking agendas for U.S. agencies released in December 2023 indicate the SEC is targeting April 2024 for finalization. Ambac has reviewed the Proposed Rule and will reassess our related compliance obligations and other effects on our operations when the final rule is issued.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES AND ESTIMATES
Ambac's Consolidated Financial Statements have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. This section highlights accounting estimates management views as critical because they are most important to the portrayal of the Company's financial condition; and require management to make difficult and subjective judgments regarding matters that are inherently uncertain and subject to change. These estimates are evaluated on an on-going basis considering historical developments, political events, market conditions, industry trends and other information. There can be no assurance that actual results will conform to estimates and that reported results of operations will not be materially adversely affected by the need to make future accounting adjustments to reflect changes in these estimates from time to time.
Management has identified the following critical accounting policies and estimates: (i) valuation of financial guarantee loss and loss adjustment expense reserves, (ii) valuation of certain financial instruments and (iii) valuation of deferred tax assets. Management has discussed each of these critical accounting policies and estimates with the Audit Committee, including the reasons why they are considered critical and how current and anticipated future events impact those determinations. Additional information about these policies can be found in Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K.
Valuation of Financial Guarantee Losses and Loss Expense Reserves (including Subrogation Recoverables)
The loss and loss adjustment expense reserves and subrogation recoverable assets (collectively defined as "loss reserves") discussed in this section relate solely to Ambac’s financial guarantee insurance policies issued to beneficiaries. A loss reserve is recorded on the balance sheet on a policy-by-policy basis at the present value ("PV") of expected net claim cash outflows or expected net recovery cash inflows, discounted at risk-free rates. The estimate for future net cash flows considers the likelihood of all possible outcomes that may occur from missed principal and/or interest payments on the insured obligation. This estimate also considers future recoveries related to remediation strategies and other contractual or subrogation-related cash flows.
The evaluation process for expected future net cash flows is subject to estimates and judgments regarding the probability of default by the issuer of the insured security, the probability of negotiation or settlement outcomes (which may include commutation, litigation and other settlements, and/or a refinancing), the probability of restructuring outcomes (which may include payment moratoriums, debt haircuts and/or subsequent recoveries) and the expected loss severity of credits for each insurance contract.
As the probability of default for an individual credit increases and/or the severity of loss given a default increases, our loss reserve for that insured obligation will also increase. Political, economic, environmental, credit or other unforeseen events
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could have an adverse impact on default probabilities and loss severities. The loss reserves for many transactions are derived from the issuer’s creditworthiness. For public finance issuers, loss reserves will consider not only creditworthiness, but also political dynamics and economic status and prospects. The loss reserves for transactions which have no direct issuer support, such as most structured finance exposures, including RMBS and student loan exposures, are derived from the default activity and the estimated loss given default of the underlying collateral supporting the transactions. In addition, many transactions have a combination of issuer/entity and collateral support. Loss reserves reflect our assessment of the transaction’s overall structure, support and expected performance. Loss reserve volatility will be a direct result of the credit performance of our insured portfolio, including the number, size, bond types and quality of credits included in our loss reserves; our ability to execute workout strategies and commutations; economic and market conditions; and management's judgments with regards to the current performance and future developments within the insured portfolio. The number and severity of credits included in our loss reserves depend to a large extent on transaction specific attributes, but will generally increase during periods of economic stress and decline during periods of economic prosperity. Reinsurance contracts may mitigate future loss reserve volatility. While Ambac currently has minimal exposure ceded to reinsurers on financial guarantee credits with loss reserves, the existing reinsurance contracts would reduce future volatility to the extent loss reserves are established on those risks ceded to reinsurers. Loss reserve volatility will also be materially impacted by changes in interest rates from period to period.
The table below indicates the gross par outstanding and gross loss reserves (including loss expenses) related to policies in Ambac’s Financial Guarantee loss and loss adjustment expense reserves at December 31, 2023 and 2022:
| Gross ParOutstanding(1) (2) | Gross Lossand LossAdjustmentExpenseReserves(1) (3) (4) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2023 | |||||||
| Structured Finance | $ | 1,860 | $ | 497 | |||
| Domestic Public Finance | 834 | 66 | |||||
| Other | 1,144 | (8) | |||||
| Loss expenses | — | 4 | |||||
| Totals | $ | 3,838 | 559 | ||||
| December 31, 2022 | |||||||
| Structured Finance | $ | 2,050 | 358 | ||||
| Domestic Public Finance | 1,215 | 75 | |||||
| Other | 782 | 3 | |||||
| Loss expenses | — | 8 | |||||
| Totals | $ | 4,047 | 444 |
(1) Ceded par outstanding on policies with loss reserves and ceded loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are $362 and $30 respectively, at December 31, 2023, and $472 and $33, respectively at December 31, 2022. Ceded loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are included in Reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses.
(2) Gross Par Outstanding includes capital appreciation bonds, which are reported at the par amount at the time of issuance of the
insurance policy as opposed to the current accreted value of the bond.
(3) Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense reserves at December 31, 2023, of $559 are included in the balance sheet in the following line items: Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves: $696 and Subrogation recoverable: $137. Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense reserves at December 31, 2022, of $444 are included in the balance sheet in the following line items: Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves: $715 and Subrogation recoverable: $271.
(4) Ambac records as a component of its loss and loss adjustment expense reserves, estimated recoveries related to securitized loans in RMBS transactions that breached certain representations and warranties. Ambac has recorded gross estimated recoveries of $0 and $140 at December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively.
See the Balance Sheet section of this Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations below for a discussion on the reasons for changes to Gross Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves during 2023.
See Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for a description of the cash flow and statistical methodologies used to develop loss reserves. The majority of our large loss reserves utilize the cash flow method of reserving. Various cash flow scenarios are developed to represent the range of possible outcomes and resultant future claim payments and timing. Scenarios and probabilities of each are adjusted regularly to reflect changes in status, outlook and our analysis and views. Significant judgment is used to develop the cash flow assumptions and related probabilities, and there can be no certainty that the scenarios or probabilities will not deviate materially from ultimate outcomes.
•In some cases, such as RMBS and student loans, cash flow projections include the modeling of a securitization's cash flows to determine the resources available to pay debt service on our insured obligations. During the first quarter of 2023, Ambac revised the model it uses to project RMBS collateral losses considering the seasoning of our RMBS exposure and management’s view that the most relevant determinant of prospective collateral performance is borrower payment status. Individual home price appreciation/depreciation has become less a critical determinant of performance considering the general appreciation in home values over the past few years as well as the impact of loan modifications. The average estimated loan-to-values of the collateral related to insured exposures have declined to under 50% from peaks above 110%. Key assumptions impacting student loan cash flow models include projected loan defaults, recoveries and interest rates. During the second quarter of 2023, we revised our approach to projecting future defaults to both reflect the student loan collateral's seasoning and generally stable performance.
•In other cases, such as many public finance exposures, we consider the issuer's overall ability and willingness to pay as it relates to the existing fiscal, economic, legal, restructuring and/or political framework relevant to a particular exposure or group of exposures. We then develop multiple scenarios where issuer debt service is
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| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 31 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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paid, missed and/or haircut with claims paid then factor in any projected recovery amount (and potential variability of the recovery amount) and the timing thereof. There is no certainty our assumptions as to scenarios or probabilities will not be subject to material changes as developments occur.
•In estimating loss reserves, we may also incorporate scenarios which represent the potential outcome of remediation strategies. Remediation scenarios could include (i) a potential refinancing of the transaction by the issuer; (ii) the issuer’s ability to redeem outstanding securities at a discount, thereby increasing the structure’s ability to absorb future losses; and (iii) our ability to terminate, restructure or commute the policy in whole or in part. The remediation scenarios and the related probabilities of occurrence vary by policy depending on ongoing and expected discussions and negotiations with issuers and/or investors. In addition to commutation negotiations that are underway with various counterparties in various forms, our reserve estimates may also include scenarios which incorporate our ability and/or expectation to commute additional exposure with other counterparties.
Valuation of Certain Financial Instruments
The Fair Value Measurement Topic of the ASC requires financial instruments to be classified within a three-level fair value hierarchy. The fair value hierarchy, the financial instruments classified within each level, our valuation methods, inputs, assumptions and the review and validation procedures over quoted and modeled pricing are further detailed in Note 5. Fair Value Measurements to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
The level of judgment in estimating fair value is largely dependent on the amount of observable market information available to fair value a financial instrument, which is also determinative of where the financial instrument is classified in the fair value hierarchy. Level 3 instruments are valued using models which use one or more significant inputs or value drivers that are unobservable and therefore require significant judgment. Level 3 financial instruments which are material include certain invested assets, uncollateralized interest rate swaps and investments and loan receivables of consolidated VIEs. Model-derived valuations of Level 3 financial instruments incorporate estimates of the effects of Ambac's own credit risk and/or counterparty credit risk, which can be complex and judgmental. Furthermore, Level 3 investments and loan receivables of consolidated VIEs incorporate estimates of Ambac's financial guarantee cash flows, including future premiums and losses. Such cash flow estimates require judgments regarding prepayments of VIE debt, loss probabilities and loss severities, all of which are inherently uncertain.
All models and related assumptions are continuously re-evaluated by management and enhanced, as appropriate, based on improvements in information and modeling techniques. The re-evaluation process includes a quarterly meeting of senior Finance personnel to review and approve changes to models and key assumptions.
As a result of the significant judgment for the above-described instruments, the actual trade value of the financial instrument in the market, or exit value of the financial instrument owned by Ambac, may be significantly different from its recorded fair value.
Valuation of Deferred Tax Assets
Our provision for taxes is based on our income, statutory tax rates and tax planning opportunities available to us in the jurisdictions in which we operate. Tax laws are complex and subject to different interpretations by the taxpayer and respective governmental taxing authorities. Significant judgment is required in determining our tax expense and in evaluating our tax positions. We review our tax positions quarterly and adjust the balances as new information becomes available. Deferred tax assets arise because of temporary differences between the financial reporting and tax bases of assets and liabilities, as well as from net operating loss ("NOL"). More specifically, deferred tax assets represent a future tax benefit that results from losses recorded under GAAP in a current period which are only deductible for tax purposes in future periods, future GAAP income that will not result in corresponding taxable income and NOL carry forwards.
Valuation allowances are established to reduce deferred tax assets to an amount that “more likely than not” will be realized. Management considers all available evidence, both positive and negative, when determining whether to establish and/or maintain a valuation allowance against deferred tax assets, with significant weight given to evidence that can be objectively verified. Positive evidence includes reduced potential for material loss as a result of settling RMBS representation and warranty litigation and resolving exposure to Puerto Rico, Everspan's receipt of an 'A-'' Financial Strength Rating from AM Best, the launch of a specialty program property and casualty insurance business, AFG's acquisition of majority interests in MGA/U businesses and AAC's reduction of material amounts of debt. Negative evidence includes Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses not yet at scale, the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance business remaining in run-off, and material amounts of debt at AAC.
The level of deferred tax asset recognition is influenced by management’s assessment of future expected taxable income, which depends on the existence of sufficient taxable income within the carry forward periods available under the tax law. As a result of the above-described risks and uncertainties associated with future operating results, management believes it is more likely than not that the Company will not generate sufficient taxable income to recover part or all the U.S. federal deferred tax asset and therefore has a full valuation allowance. To the extent such risks and uncertainties are resolved, Ambac may have the ability to establish a history of making reliable estimates of future income which could ultimately result in a reduction to the deferred tax asset valuation allowance. See Note 16. Income Taxes to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information on the Company's deferred income taxes.
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FINANCIAL GUARANTEES IN FORCE
Financial guarantee products were sold in three principal markets: U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and international finance. Net par exposures within the U.S. public finance market include capital appreciation bonds which are reported at the par amount at the time of issuance of the insurance policy as opposed to the current accreted value of the bonds. Guaranteed net par outstanding includes the exposures of policies insuring variable interest entities (“VIEs”) consolidated in accordance with the Consolidation Topic of the ASC. Guaranteed net par outstanding excludes the exposures of policies that insure bonds which have been refunded, pre-refunded or synthetically commuted.
AAC's Risk Management Group focuses on the implementation and execution of risk reduction, defeasance and loss recovery strategies. Analysts evaluate the estimated timing and severity of projected policy claims as well as the potential impact of loss mitigation or remediation strategies in order to target and prioritize policies, or portions thereof, for commutation, reinsurance, refinancing, restructuring or other risk reduction strategies. For targeted policies, analysts will engage with issuers, bondholders and other economic stakeholders to negotiate, structure and execute such strategies. During 2023, Ambac completed risk reduction transactions equating to $2,419, including a quota share reinsurance cession of $2,069 insured par, consisting primarily of military housing risk of $1,958.
The following table provides a comparison of total, adversely classified ("ACC") and watch list (as described in Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K) credit net par outstanding in the insured portfolio at December 31, 2023 and 2022.
| ($ in billions) December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | Variance | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $ | 19,541 | $ | 22,613 | $ | (3,072) | (11) | % | ||||||
| ACC | $ | 3,504 | $ | 4,735 | $ | (1,231) | (26) | % | ||||||
| Watch List | $ | 2,181 | $ | 3,044 | $ | (863) | (28) | % |
The decrease in total, ACC and watch list credit net par outstanding resulted from active de-risking (primarily from the reinsurance cession noted above), scheduled maturities, amortizations, refundings and calls, partially offset by a weakening of the USD versus the GBP.
The following table provides a breakdown of guaranteed net par outstanding by market at December 31, 2023 and 2022.
| December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Finance (1) | $ | 7,562 | $ | 10,547 | ||
| Structured Finance | 3,315 | 3,612 | ||||
| International Finance | 8,664 | 8,454 | ||||
| Total net par outstanding | $ | 19,541 | $ | 22,613 |
(1) Includes $3,371 and $5,400 of Military Housing net par outstanding at December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively.
Below we discuss the significant exposures in our insured portfolio relating to each of the three markets. See Note 6. Financial Guarantees in Force to the Consolidated Financial
Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for exposures by bond type.
U.S. Public Finance Insured Portfolio
AAC’s portfolio of U.S. public finance exposures totaled $7,562 in net par outstanding, representing 39% of Ambac’s net par outstanding as of December 31, 2023, and a 28% reduction from the amount outstanding at December 31, 2022. This reduction resulted from active de-risking (primarily from the above-mentioned reinsurance cession of $2,069 of insured par), scheduled paydowns, and early terminations (calls, refundings and pre-refundings). Ambac’s U.S. public finance portfolio consists of municipal bonds such as general obligation, revenue, and lease and tax-backed obligations of state and local government entities, and also includes several non-municipal types of bonds, such as financings with public and private elements, which generally finance infrastructure, housing and other public interests, the largest sector of which is U.S. military housing which accounts for approximately 45% of AAC's U.S. Public Finance Insured Portfolio.
Municipal Bonds
Municipal bonds are generally supported directly or indirectly by the issuer’s taxing authority or by public sector fees and assessments which may or may not be specifically pledged. Risk factors in these transactions derive from the municipal issuer, including its fiscal management, politics, and economic position, as well as its ability and willingness to continue to pay its debt service. Municipal bankruptcies and similar proceedings, while still relatively uncommon, have occurred, exposing Ambac to the risk of liquidity claims and ultimate losses if issuers cannot successfully adjust their liabilities without impairing creditors.
Non-Municipal Bonds
Public/private transactions are generally structured to achieve their targeted public interest objective without direct support from the public sector. Some examples of this type of financing include affordable housing, private education, and privatized military housing. Protections within these financings provided to Ambac usually include the strength of the financed asset’s essentiality and public purpose and may include financial covenants, collateral and control rights. Risk factors include financial underperformance, event risk and a shift in the asset’s mission or essentiality.
Military Housing Bonds
AAC's largest concentration of non-municipal bonds is U.S. military housing. Ambac insures $3,371 net par of privatized military housing debt. The debt was issued to finance the construction and/or renovation of housing units for military personnel and their families on domestic U.S. military bases. Debt service is not directly paid or guaranteed by the U.S. Government. Rather, the bonds are serviced from the cash flow generated in most cases by rental payments deposited by the military directly into lockbox accounts as part of each service personnel’s Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH). In typically small percentages, rental payments can also come from civilians, including retired service personnel and US Department of Defense contractors living on a particular base. Collateral for these transactions includes the BAH payments as well as an interest in the ground lease. Risk factors affecting these
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transactions include ongoing base essentiality, military deployments, the U.S. government’s commitment to fund the BAH, marketability/attractiveness of the on-base housing units versus off-base housing, construction completion, environmental remediation, natural disasters, excessive utility and other operating costs and housing management. As of December 31, 2023, privatized military housing represented approximately 17% of net par outstanding as compared to 24% as of December 31, 2022. Ambac's privatized military housing exposure decreased from 2022 as a result of the above-mentioned reinsurance cession.
U.S. Structured Finance Portfolio
Ambac’s portfolio of U.S. structured finance exposures is $3,315 in net par outstanding, representing 17% of Ambac’s net par outstanding as of December 31, 2023, and an 8% reduction from the amount outstanding at December 31, 2022. This reduction in exposure was primarily related to (i) RMBS policies, which continued to prepay as well as incur claims and (ii) scheduled paydowns.
Current insured exposures primarily include securitizations of mortgage loans, home equity loans and student loans, and investor-owned utilities in each case where the majority of the underlying collateral risk is situated in the United States. At December 31, 2023, RMBS represented approximately 9% of net par outstanding.
Structured finance securitization exposures generally entail three forms of risk: (i) asset risk, which relates to the amount and quality of the underlying assets; (ii) structural risk, which relates to the extent to which the transaction’s legal structure and credit support provide protection from loss; and (iii) servicer risk, which is the risk that poor performance at the servicer or manager level contributes to a decline in cash flow available to the transaction. AAC seeks to mitigate and manage these risks through its risk management practices.
International Finance Insured Portfolio
Ambac’s portfolio of international finance insured exposures is $8,664 in net par outstanding, representing 44% of Ambac’s net
par outstanding as of December 31, 2023, and a 2% increase from the amount outstanding at December 31, 2022. This increase in exposure was primarily the result of a weakening of the US dollar versus the British pound and the Euro, partially offset by de-risking activity. Ambac’s international finance insured exposures include a wide array of obligations in the international markets, including infrastructure financings, utility obligations, whole business securitizations (e.g., securitizations of substantially all of the operating assets of a corporation) and sub-sovereign credits.
When underwriting transactions in the international markets, Ambac considered the specific risks related to the particular country and region that could impact the credit of the issuer. These risks include the legal and political environment, capital markets dynamics, foreign exchange issues and the degree of governmental support. Ambac continues to assess these risks, as well as emerging risks, through its ongoing risk management.
Ambac's international net par exposures are principally in the United Kingdom ($7,502); however, we also have exposures with credit risk based in various EU member states, including Austria, France, Germany and Italy ($895).
At December 31, 2023, sub-sovereign and investor-owned and public utilities represented approximately 22% and 15% (Electric 5%, Gas 5% and Water 5%) of total net par outstanding, respectively. Ambac has no insured exposure related to emerging markets.
Ambac UK, which is regulated in the United Kingdom (“UK”), was AAC’s primary vehicle for directly issuing financial guarantee policies in the UK and the European Union with $8,397 net par outstanding at December 31, 2023 (represents approximately 97% of Ambac's international net par outstanding). The portfolio of insured exposures underwritten by Ambac UK is financially supported exclusively by the assets of Ambac UK and no capital support arrangements are in place with any other Ambac affiliate.
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| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 34 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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Largest Insured Exposures:
The table below shows Ambac’s ten largest exposures, by repayment source, as a percentage of total financial guarantee net par outstanding at December 31, 2023 (in millions):
| Sector | Co. | Bond Kind | Country-Bond Type | AmbacRatings (1) | Ultimate Maturity Year | Net ParOutstanding | % of TotalNet ParOutstanding | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IF | AUK | Investor Owned Utility Gas - unsecured | UK-Utility | BBB+ | 2037 | $ | 896 | 4.6 | % | |||||||
| IF | AUK | PFI - Hospitals | UK-Infrastructure | BBB+ | 2046 | 741 | 3.8 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | PFI - Accommodation | UK-Infrastructure | A- | 2040 | 739 | 3.8 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | Other Asset Securitizations | UK-Asset Securitizations | BBB+ | 2033 | 696 | 3.6 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | Investor Owned Utility Other - unsecured | UK-Utility | A- | 2035 | 683 | 3.5 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | Investor Owned Utility Electric - unsecured | UK-Utility | BBB+ | 2036 | 618 | 3.2 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | Sub-Sovereign | Italy-Sub-Sovereign | BIG | 2035 | 576 | 2.9 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | PFI - Accommodation | UK-Infrastructure | A- | 2038 | 478 | 2.4 | % | ||||||||
| PF | AAC | US State Lease/Appropriation | US-Lease and Tax-backed Revenue | BBB | 2036 | 357 | 1.8 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | PFI - Hospitals | UK-Infrastructure | BBB- | 2040 | 307 | 1.6 | % | ||||||||
| Total | $ | 6,091 | 31.2 | % | ||||||||||||
| PF = Public Finance, SF = Structured Finance, IF = International Finance AAC = Ambac Assurance, AUK = Ambac UK |
(1)Internal credit ratings are provided solely to indicate the underlying credit quality of guaranteed obligations based on the view of Ambac. In cases where Ambac has insured multiple tranches of an issue with varying internal ratings, or more than one obligation of an issuer with varying internal ratings, a weighted average rating is used. Ambac credit ratings are subject to revision at any time and do not constitute investment advice. BIG denotes credits deemed below investment grade.
Net par related to the top ten exposures reduced $25 from December 31, 2022. Exposures are impacted by commutations, changes in foreign exchange rates ($283 increase during 2023), certain indexation rates linked to inflation measures in the United Kingdom (RPI) and scheduled and unscheduled paydowns. As a result of recent increases in inflation, such indexation-linked exposures have increased at a faster pace than they have historically.
The concentration of net par amongst the top ten (as a percentage of net par outstanding) increased to 31% at December 31, 2023, from 27% at December 31, 2022. Excluding the top ten exposures, the remaining insured portfolio of financial guarantees has an average net par outstanding of $28 per single risk, with insured exposures ranging up to $307 and a median net par outstanding of $5.
Additional Insured Portfolio Information
Average Life of Insured Portfolio
Ambac estimates that the average life of its guarantees on par in force at December 31, 2023, is approximately 10 years. The average life is determined by applying a weighted average calculation, using the remaining years to expected maturity of each guaranteed bond, and weighting them on the basis of the remaining net par guaranteed. Except for RMBS policies, no assumptions are made for non-contractual reductions, refundings or terminations of insured issues. RMBS policies incorporate assumptions on expected prepayments over the remaining life of the insured obligation.
The following table depicts amortization of existing guaranteed net par outstanding:
| ($ in millions)Net Par Outstanding Amortization (1) | Estimated Net Amortization | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $ | 1,355 | |
| 2025 | 1,181 | ||
| 2026 | 1,152 | ||
| 2027 | 964 | ||
| 2028 | 1,161 | ||
| 2024 - 2028 | $ | 5,813 | |
| 2029 - 2033 | 4,345 | ||
| 2034 - 2038 | 6,424 | ||
| 2039 - 2043 | 1,340 | ||
| After 2043 | 1,619 | ||
| Total | $ | 19,541 |
(1) Depicts amortization of existing guaranteed portfolio, assuming no advance refundings, as of December 31, 2023. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations.
Exposure Currency
The table below shows the distribution by currency of Ambac's existing guaranteed net par outstanding as of December 31, 2023:
| Currency(in millions) | Net Par Amount Outstanding in Base Currency | Net ParAmountOutstandingin U.S.Dollars | Percentage of Net Par Amount Outstanding | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Dollars | $ | 11,039 | $ | 11,039 | 56 | % | ||||
| British Pounds | £ | 5,769 | 7,353 | 38 | % | |||||
| Euros | € | 800 | 883 | 5 | % | |||||
| Australian Dollars | A$ | 391 | 266 | 1 | % | |||||
| Total | $ | 19,541 | 100 | % |
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| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 35 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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See Note 6. Financial Guarantees in Force to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, for geographic detail by location of risk as of December 31, 2023.
Ratings Distribution
The following charts provide a rating distribution of existing net par outstanding based upon internal Ambac credit ratings at December 31, 2023 and 2022, and a distribution of Ambac's below investment grade ("BIG") net par exposures at December 31, 2023 and 2022. BIG is defined as those exposures with an internal credit rating below BBB-:
Note: AAA is less than 1% in both periods.
(1) Internal credit ratings are provided solely to indicate the underlying credit quality of guaranteed obligations based on the view of Ambac. In cases where Ambac has insured multiple tranches of an issue with varying internal ratings, or more than one obligation of an issuer with varying internal ratings, a weighted average rating is used. Ambac credit ratings are subject to revision at any time and do not constitute investment advice.
Summary of Below Investment Grade Exposure:
| Bond TypeDecember 31, | Net Par Outstanding | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2022 | ||||||
| Public Finance: | |||||||
| Military Housing | $ | 361 | $ | 366 | |||
| General Obligations | 85 | 151 | |||||
| Lease and tax-backed revenue | 80 | 252 | |||||
| Other | 37 | 54 | |||||
| Total Public Finance | 563 | 823 | |||||
| Structured Finance: | |||||||
| RMBS | 1,642 | 1,841 | |||||
| Student Loans | 264 | 275 | |||||
| Total Structured Finance | 1,906 | 2,117 | |||||
| International Finance: | |||||||
| Sovereign/sub-sovereign | 693 | 701 | |||||
| Transportation | 307 | 310 | |||||
| Other | 1 | 2 | |||||
| Total International Finance | 1,001 | 1,013 | |||||
| Total | $ | 3,470 | $ | 3,953 |
The net decline in below investment grade exposures is significantly due to de-risking activities, including Puerto Rico of $165 and from the above mentioned reinsurance transaction of $50.
Below investment grade exposures could increase as a relative proportion of the guarantee portfolio given that Ambac hasn't written any new financial guarantee business since 2008 and stressed borrowers generally have less ability to prepay or refinance their debt. Accordingly, due to these and other factors, it is not unreasonable to expect the proportion of below investment grade exposure in the guarantee portfolio to continue to increase in the future.
Ceded Reinsurance
AAC has reinsurance in place pursuant to surplus share treaties and facultative agreements. As a primary financial guarantor, AAC is required to honor its obligations to its policyholders whether or not its reinsurers perform their obligations under these reinsurance agreements. AAC's reinsurers all have applicable ratings of A or better. As of December 31, 2023, the aggregate amount of insured par ceded by AAC to reinsurers under reinsurance agreements was $6,464, with the largest reinsurer accounting for $2,766 or 10.6% of gross par outstanding at December 31, 2023.
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| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 36 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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The following table shows the distribution, by bond type, of AAC’s ceded guaranteed portfolio at December 31, 2023:
| Bond Type December 31, | Ceded Par AmountOutstanding | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2022 | |||||
| Public Finance: | ||||||
| Housing revenue | $ | 2,829 | $ | 910 | ||
| Lease and tax-backed revenue | 1,125 | 1,169 | ||||
| General obligation | 1,112 | 1,265 | ||||
| Transportation revenue | 599 | 699 | ||||
| Other | 494 | 555 | ||||
| Total Public Finance | 6,159 | 4,598 | ||||
| Structured Finance: | ||||||
| Investor-owned utilities | 174 | 174 | ||||
| Other | 100 | 136 | ||||
| Total Structured Finance | 274 | 310 | ||||
| Total Domestic | 6,433 | 4,908 | ||||
| International Finance: | ||||||
| Total International Finance | 31 | 30 | ||||
| Total | $ | 6,464 | $ | 4,938 | ||
| Percentage of Gross Par Ceded | 25 | % | 18 | % |
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following discussion should be read along with the financial statements included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, as well as Part II, "Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, which provides additional information on comparisons of years 2022 and 2021.
Net income attributable to common stockholders for the year ended December 31, 2023, was $4 compared to a net income attributable to common stockholders of $522 for the year ended December 31, 2022. The net income variance was primarily driven by: (i) a lower loss and loss adjustment expenses benefit, (ii) a litigation recovery in 2022, (iii) 2022 gains on derivative contracts, and (iv) 2022 net gains on extinguishment of debt, partially offset by higher returns from the investment portfolio and lower interest expense.
A summary of our financial results is shown below:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues: | ||||||||||
| Net premiums earned | $ | 78 | $ | 56 | $ | 47 | ||||
| Commission income | 51 | 31 | 26 | |||||||
| Program fees | 8 | 3 | — | |||||||
| Net investment income | 140 | 17 | 139 | |||||||
| Net investment gains (losses), including impairments | (22) | 31 | 7 | |||||||
| Net gains (losses) on derivative contracts | (1) | 129 | 22 | |||||||
| Net realized gains on extinguishment of debt | — | 81 | 33 | |||||||
| Income (loss) on variable interest entities | 3 | 21 | 7 | |||||||
| Other income | 11 | 10 | 1 | |||||||
| Litigation recoveries | — | 126 | — | |||||||
| Expenses: | ||||||||||
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses | (33) | (396) | (88) | |||||||
| Amortization of deferred acquisition costs, net | 11 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| Commission expense | 29 | 18 | 15 | |||||||
| General and administrative expenses | 156 | 141 | 111 | |||||||
| Intangible amortization | 29 | 47 | 55 | |||||||
| Interest expense | 64 | 168 | 187 | |||||||
| Provision (benefit) for income taxes | 7 | 2 | 18 | |||||||
| Net income (loss) | 5 | 522 | (16) | |||||||
| Less: net (gain) loss attributable to noncontrolling interest | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||||||
| Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders | $ | 4 | $ | 522 | $ | (17) |
Ambac's results for the year ended December 31, 2023 compared to the year ended December 31, 2022 were impacted by the following:
•During 2023, Ambac completed LFG risk reduction transactions primarily through a quota share reinsurance cession, consisting primarily of military housing risk. This reinsurance cession had an adverse impact on net premiums earned of approximately $2.
•As of December 6, 2022, all AAC-insured Puerto Rico obligations were restructured under PROMESA via court-approved plans of adjustment or qualifying modifications. As a result of these restructurings, Ambac's 2022 consolidated financial results included a net benefit of $180 in losses and gains of $37 on the consolidation of newly established variable interest entities; partially offset by net losses of $23 from sales and changes to the fair value of securities received by AAC in the restructurings and losses of $17 on the VIEs after initial consolidation.
•On October 6, 2022, AAC entered into a Settlement Agreement and Release with Bank of America Corporation and certain affiliates thereof (the "BOA Parties") whereby the parties settled all RMBS litigation brought by AAC against the BOA Parties and AAC received $1,840 (the "BOA Settlement Payment"). On December 29, 2022, AAC entered into a Settlement Agreement and Release with Nomura Credit & Capital, Inc. ("Nomura") whereby the parties settled all RMBS litigation brought by AAC
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| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 37 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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against Nomura and AAC received $140 on January 3, 2023. AAC used the proceeds from these settlements (net of reinsurance) plus approximately $6 of cash on hand to fully redeem all debt obligations secured by the net proceeds of litigations brought by AAC against RMBS sponsors. The settlements with the BOA Parties and Nomura brought to closure all of AAC's legacy litigation against RMBS sponsors. See Note 1. Background and Business Description in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further information. During 2022, AAC recorded a gain of $123 million in loss and loss adjustment expenses and litigation recoveries of $126, offset by net realized losses on extinguishment of debt of $53 related to the above-mentioned settlement agreements. Interest expense was significantly reduced in 2023 as a result of these settlements.
The following paragraphs describe the consolidated results of operations of Ambac and its subsidiaries for 2023 and 2022.
Gross Premiums Written. Gross premiums written increased $161 for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to the same periods in the prior year, as shown by segment below.
| Year Ended December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legacy Financial Guaranty Insurance | $ | 15 | $ | (20) | $ | (11) | ||||
| Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | 273 | 146 | 13 | |||||||
| Total | $ | 288 | $ | 127 | $ | 2 |
Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance gross premiums written relate to changes in expected and contractual premium cash flows for existing financial guarantees in force.
Specialty P&C growth is primarily driven by the number of active programs and their size as of December 31, 2023, we have twenty-three programs with nineteen MGA/Us.
Net Premiums Written. Net premiums written increased $22 for the year ended December 31, 2023 compared to the year ended December 31, 2022, as shown by segment below:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legacy Financial Guaranty Insurance | $ | (35) | $ | (6) | $ | (35) | ||||
| Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | 80 | 29 | 3 | |||||||
| Total | $ | 44 | $ | 23 | $ | (33) |
Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance net premiums written relate to changes in expected and contractual premium cash flows for existing financial guarantees in force, and reinsurance cessions in 2023 and 2021.
Specialty P&C growth is primarily driven by the number of active programs and their size as of December 31, 2023, in addition to the impact of two assumed reinsurance transactions executed during 2023.
Net Premiums Earned. Net premiums earned for the year ended December 31, 2023 increased by $22 or 38% as compared to net premiums earned for the year ended December 31, 2022, as shown below.
| Year Ended December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legacy Financial Guaranty Insurance | $ | 26 | $ | 42 | $ | 46 | ||||
| Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance | 52 | 14 | 1 | |||||||
| Total | 78 | $ | 56 | $ | 47 |
The reduction in the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment was primarily due to de-risking activities, including the 2023 reinsurance transaction, the 2022 Puerto Rico restructurings, and run-off of the insured portfolio. The increase in Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance net premiums earned was driven by the growth in net premiums written.
Commission Income and Commission Expense. Commission income was $51 compared to $31, for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022. Commissions include both base and profit sharing commissions from Cirrata Group companies in the Insurance Distribution segment. The increase was driven by organic growth in premiums placed as well as the acquisition of All Trans and Capacity Marine in November of 2022 and Riverton in August of 2023. Commission expense will largely track changes in gross commission.
For the year ended December 31, 2023 commission expense was $29 compared to $18 for the year ended December 31, 2022, representing approximately 57% of commission income in both periods.
Program Fees. Program fee revenues were $8 compared $3 for the years December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. Program fee revenues represent the recognition of ceding commissions in excess of direct acquisition costs received from reinsurers and minimum fees received from MGA/Us until related programs reach certain levels of premium ceded. Program fees are charged as a percentage of premiums ceded to reinsurers as a component of total ceding commissions.
Net Investment Income. Net investment income primarily consists of interest and net discount accretion on fixed maturity securities classified as available-for-sale, interest and changes in fair value of fixed maturity securities classified as trading, and net gains (losses) on pooled investment funds which include changes in fair value of the funds' net assets. Fixed maturity securities include investments in Ambac-insured securities that are made opportunistically based on their risk/reward and asset-liability management characteristics. Investments in pooled investment funds and certain other investments are either classified as trading securities with changes in fair value recognized in earnings or are reported under the equity method. These funds and other investments are reported in Other investments on the Consolidated Balance Sheets. For further information about investment funds held, refer to Note 4. Investments to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Net investment income for the periods presented were driven by the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment; other segments' results were not significant.
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| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 38 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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Net investment income from Ambac-insured securities, available-for-sale securities other than Ambac-insured and Other investments is summarized in the table below:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Securities available-for-sale: Ambac-insured (including secured notes) | $ | 24 | $ | 24 | $ | 45 | ||||
| Securities available-for-sale and short-term other than Ambac-insured | 69 | 42 | 29 | |||||||
| Other investments (includes trading securities) | 47 | (49) | 66 | |||||||
| Net investment income | $ | 140 | $ | 17 | $ | 139 |
Net investment income increased $123 for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to 2022.
•Income from Other investments and trading securities increased $97 in 2023, compared to the prior year. Pooled fund investments produced a gain of $40, an increase of $66 from 2022, driven by improved performance in all fund categories even with a lower allocation to funds overall. The largest increases were in hedge funds, equities and high-yield and leverage loan funds. Investments in pooled funds may be volatile, but are generally expected to produce higher returns than traditional fixed maturity investments. Gains on securities received in the Puerto Rico restructurings, which are classified as trading, were $7 in 2023, compared to a loss of $23 in 2022.
•Net investment income from available-for-sales securities other than Ambac-insured securities increased $27 in 2023, compared to the prior year, due to higher portfolio yields.
•Investment income from Ambac-insured securities was flat compared to 2022. Higher average holdings of Ambac-insured RMBS and student loans in 2023 offset the impact of the 2022 settlements of Puerto Rico bonds and the redemption of Sitka Senior Secured Notes (as defined in Note 12. Long-Term Debt to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in the Annual Report on Form 10-K) held in the portfolio in 2022.
Net Investment Gains (Losses), including Impairments. The following table provides a breakdown of net investment gains, for the periods presented:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net realized gains on securities sold or called | $ | (4) | $ | 18 | $ | 11 | ||||
| Net foreign exchange gains (losses) | (4) | 14 | (5) | |||||||
| Credit impairment | (3) | — | — | |||||||
| Intent / requirement to sell impairments | (12) | — | — | |||||||
| Total net investment gains, including impairments | $ | (22) | $ | 31 | $ | 7 |
Net investment gains (losses) during the year ended December 31, 2023, included impairments of Ambac-insured student loan securities that management intends to sell. Net investment gains during the year ended December 31, 2022, included a recovery of $9 from a class-action settlement relating to certain RMBS securities previously held in the investment portfolio, $4 from the distribution of residual assets of a legacy financial guarantee student loan restructuring vehicle and $5
from the mandatory redemption of Sitka Senior Secured Notes over their amortized cost value. Other net realized gains on securities sold or called in 2023 and 2022 are primarily from sales in connection with routine portfolio management. Refer to Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements located in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for a description of the Company's policies related to investment impairments.
Net Gains (Losses) on Derivative Contracts. Net gains (losses) on derivative contracts are primarily from the Company's interest rate derivatives portfolio. Into the second quarter of 2023, the interest rate derivatives portfolio was positioned to benefit from rising rates as a partial economic hedge against interest rate exposure in the financial guarantee insurance and investment portfolios. This economic hedge was substantially reduced since September 30, 2022, and was fully removed during the second quarter of 2023. Net gains (losses) on interest rate derivatives reflect mark-to-market gains (losses) in the portfolio caused by increases (declines) in forward interest rates during the periods, the carrying cost of the portfolio, and the impact of counterparty credit adjustments as discussed below. Results from other non-VIE derivatives were not significant to the periods presented.
Net losses on interest rate derivatives for the year ended December 31, 2023, were $1, compared to a net gains of $128 for the year ended December 31, 2022. Results for the year ended December 31, 2023, reflect the impacts of interest rate shifts in the early part of 2023 and counterparty credit adjustments as noted below. The net gains in 2022 were driven primarily by the significant rate increase during the year.
Counterparty credit adjustments are generally applicable for uncollateralized derivative assets that may not be offset by derivative liabilities under a master netting agreement. In periods when credit spreads are stable, counterparty credit adjustments will generally have a proportionate offsetting impact to gains or losses on derivative assets, relative to fully collateralized assets. In addition to the impact of interest rates on the underlying derivative asset values, the changes in counterparty credit adjustments are driven by movement of credit spreads. Generally, narrowing (widening) of credit spreads will increase (decrease) derivative gains relative to a period of stable credit spreads. Inclusion of counterparty credit adjustments in the valuation of interest rate derivatives resulted in gains (losses) within Net gains (losses) on derivative contracts of $2 and $8 for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. The lower counterparty credit adjustments for both periods reflected lower underlying asset values with the further impact of credit spread narrowing in 2023 and widening in 2022.
Net Realized Gains on Extinguishment of Debt. Net realized gains on extinguishment of debt was $0 for year ended December 31, 2023. Net realized gains on extinguishment of debt was $81 for the year ended December 31, 2022. Gains were recognized due to repurchases of surplus notes below their carrying values, partially offset with losses recognized on the redemption of the Sitka AAC Note (as defined in Note 12. Long-term Debt to the Consolidated Financial Statements
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included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K) above its carrying value. AAC repurchased $266 million current par of surplus notes from third party holders in 2022. Subject to prevailing market conditions, our liquidity, internal and regulatory guidelines and approvals, contractual restrictions and OCI’s Run-off Capital Framework, Ambac may continue to opportunistically reduce, redeem, repurchase or otherwise retire its outstanding surplus notes, including through open market repurchases, tender offers, repayments, redemptions or otherwise, and may consider opportunities to exchange securities issued by it from time to time for other securities issued by AFG or AAC.
Income (Loss) on Variable Interest Entities. Included within Income (loss) on variable interest entities are income statement amounts relating to LFG-VIEs consolidated under the Consolidation Topic of the ASC as a result of Ambac's variable interest arising from financial guarantees written by Ambac's subsidiaries, including gains or losses attributable to consolidating or deconsolidating LFG-VIEs during the periods reported. Generally, the Company’s consolidated VIEs are entities for which Ambac has provided financial guarantees on all of or a portion of its assets or liabilities. In consolidation, most assets and liabilities of the LFG-VIEs are initially reported at fair value, except for customer contract assets and liabilities which are accounted for under the Revenue from Contracts with Customers Topic of the ASC. The related insurance assets and liabilities are eliminated in consolidation. The amount of LFG-VIE net assets (liabilities) that remain in consolidation incorporate the net positive (negative) future cash flows from (to) the VIEs which are attributable to Ambac’s insurance subsidiaries in the form of financial guarantee insurance premiums, fees and losses. Generally, LFG-VIEs in a net liability position are expected to have some portion of their obligations funded by Ambac’s insurance subsidiaries through insurance claim payments. Differences between the net carrying value of the insurance accounts under the Financial Services—Insurance Topic of the ASC and the carrying value of the consolidated LFG-VIEs' net assets or liabilities are recorded through income at the time of consolidation. Additionally, terminations or other changes to Ambac's financial guarantee insurance policies that impact projected cash flows between a consolidated LFG-VIE and Ambac could result in gains or losses, even if such policy changes do not result in deconsolidation of the LFG-VIE.
Income (loss) on variable interest entities was $3 and $21 for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. Results for the year ended December 31, 2023, were driven primarily by the $4 gain upon consolidation of a VIE for which Ambac UK guarantees the senior debt. Results for the year ended December 31, 2022. related primarily to three VIE trusts created in connection with the Puerto Rico restructurings in 2022. The 2022 gain included the initial $37 million gain upon consolidation, losses of $9 from changes to fair value of these VIEs' assets, and losses of $7 from these VIEs' interest and other costs. Refer to Note 11. Variable Interest Entities to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further information on the accounting for VIEs.
Litigation Recoveries. For the year ended December 31, 2022, in connection with the settlement agreement with Bank of America Corporation and certain affiliates, the BOA Settlement Payment included recoveries from litigations for alleged breaches of contractual obligations and fraud by the BOA Parties. Management allocated the BOA Settlement Payment to each of the litigations based on previously developed valuations of each individual litigation. The portion of the BOA Settlement Payment allocated to fraud litigation recoveries has been recorded as a litigation recovery in the Statement of Comprehensive Income (Loss).
Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses (Benefit). Losses and loss adjustment expenses increased $364 for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to the prior year. Below provides the breakout of loss and loss expenses by segment:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legacy financial guarantee | $ | (69) | $ | (406) | $ | (89) | ||||
| Specialty property and casualty insurance | 37 | 9 | $ | — | ||||||
| Total | $ | (33) | $ | (396) | $ | (88) |
The large variance within legacy financial guarantee was driven by activities in the RMBS portfolio in 2023 and 2022, including the impact of the Settlement Agreements with Bank of America Corporation and certain affiliates thereof and the settlement agreement with Nomura during 2022. Refer to discussion of each segment's results below for further details.
General and Administrative Expenses ("G&A"). The following table provides a summary of G&A expenses for the periods presented:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compensation | $ | 73 | $ | 66 | $ | 62 | ||||
| Non-compensation | 84 | 75 | 49 | |||||||
| Total | $ | 156 | $ | 141 | $ | 111 |
G&A expenses for the year ended December 31, 2023 are $156, an increase of $15 from G&A expenses for the year ended December 31, 2022. The increase was primarily due to the following:
•Higher compensation costs primarily due to a net increase in staffing from additions in the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution segments and the impact of performance factor adjustments on incentive compensation expense, partially offset by reductions in staffing in the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment.
•Higher non-compensation costs primarily related to increased Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment defensive litigation expenses and costs associated with growth of the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses.
Intangible Amortization. Insurance intangible amortization was $25 and $44 for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. The decrease was driven primarily by the timing of de-risking transactions (including Puerto Rico in 2022) and the reduced size of the financial guarantee insured portfolio. Insurance intangible amortization will decline after policies
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mature or they are de-risked Other intangible amortization was $3 and $3 for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022 relating to acquisitions within the Insurance Distribution segment.
Interest Expense. All interest expense relates to the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment and includes accrued interest on the LSNI Ambac Note (fully redeemed in 2021), Sitka AAC Note (fully redeemed during the fourth quarter of 2022), Tier 2 Notes (fully redeemed during the first quarter of 2023), surplus notes and other debt obligations. Additionally, interest expense includes discount accretion when the debt instrument carrying value is at a discount to par. The following table provides details by type of obligation for the periods presented:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surplus Notes (1) | $ | 62 | $ | 78 | $ | 77 | ||||
| LSNI Ambac Note | — | — | 50 | |||||||
| Sitka AAC Note | — | 63 | 32 | |||||||
| Tier 2 Notes | — | 26 | 27 | |||||||
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Total interest expense | $ | 64 | $ | 168 | $ | 187 |
(1)Includes interest on Junior Surplus Notes that were acquired and retired in 2021.
The decrease in interest expense for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to the year ended December 31, 2022, reflects the impact of the 2022 redemption of secured notes and purchases of surplus notes as described further under "Debt Redemptions and Extinguishments" in Note 12. Long-term Debt to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Surplus note principal and interest payments require the approval of OCI. In May 2023, OCI declined the request of AAC to pay the principal amount of the surplus notes, plus all accrued and unpaid interest thereon, on the then next scheduled payment date of June 7, 2023. As a result, the scheduled payment date for interest, and the scheduled maturity date for payment of principal of the surplus notes was extended until OCI grants approval to make the payment. Interest will accrue, compounded on each anniversary of the original scheduled payment date or scheduled maturity date, on any unpaid principal or interest through the actual date of payment, at 5.1% per annum. Holders of surplus notes will have no rights to enforce the payment of the principal of, or interest on, surplus notes in the absence of OCI approval to pay such amount. The interest on the outstanding surplus notes were accrued for and AAC is accruing interest on the interest amounts following each scheduled payment date. Total accrued and unpaid interest for surplus notes outstanding to third parties was $475 at December 31, 2023. As required by the terms of surplus notes, AAC will continue to seek OCI’s approval to make payments of principal and interest on its surplus notes. OCI’s approval may be granted or denied in OCI’s sole discretion. Since the issuance of the surplus notes in 2010, OCI has declined to approve regular payments of interest on surplus notes, although the OCI has permitted two exceptional payments. Ambac can provide no assurance as to when or if surplus note principal and interest payments will be made.
Provision for Income Taxes. The provision for income taxes for the year ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, was a expense of $7 and $2, respectively. Income taxes for the year ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, includes provisions for income tax due in respect of Ambac UK of $8 and $3, respectively.
At December 31, 2023, the Company had approximately $3,400 of U.S. Federal net ordinary operating loss carryforwards, including approximately $1,640 at AFG and $1,760 at AAC.
Results of Operations by Segment
| Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year Ended December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | |||||
| Revenues: | |||||||
| Net premiums earned | $ | 26 | $ | 42 | |||
| Net investment income | 127 | 12 | |||||
| Net investment gains (losses), including impairments | (23) | 32 | |||||
| Net gains (losses) on derivative contracts | (1) | 128 | |||||
| Net realized gains on extinguishment of debt | — | 81 | |||||
| Other income | 15 | 30 | |||||
| Litigation recoveries | — | 126 | |||||
| Total | 144 | 451 | |||||
| Expenses: | |||||||
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses | (69) | (406) | |||||
| General and administrative expenses | 106 | 102 | |||||
| Total | 37 | (303) | |||||
| EBITDA | 107 | 754 | |||||
| Interest expense | 64 | 168 | |||||
| Depreciation | 1 | 2 | |||||
| Intangible amortization | 25 | 44 | |||||
| Pretax income (loss) | $ | 17 | $ | 540 | |||
| Ambac's stockholders equity (1) | $ | 923 | $ | 826 |
(1)Represents the share of Ambac stockholders equity for each subsidiary within the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment, including intercompany eliminations.
The Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment is in active runoff. This will generally result in lower premium earned, investment income, operating expenses and intangible amortization. The variability in the financial results are primarily driven by changes in loss and loss adjustment expenses resulting from, amongst other items, litigation settlements, credit developments and de-risking transactions. Key variances not discussed above in the Consolidated Results section are as follows:
Net premiums earned. Net premiums earned decreased $16 for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to the same period in the prior year. Net premiums earned were impacted by the organic and active runoff of the financial guarantee insured portfolio resulting in a reduction to current and future normal net premiums earned and the following:
•Changes to the allowance for credit losses on the premium receivable asset. The positive impact on net premiums earned related to credit losses amounted to $1 and $4 for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 41 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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•Accelerated financial guarantee premiums earned as a result of calls and other accelerations on insured obligations, largely due to active de-risking of the insured portfolio, were $0 and $8 for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively.
Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses (Benefit). The following provides details for losses and loss expenses (benefit) incurred for the periods presented:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structured Finance | $ | (63) | $ | (207) | |||
| Domestic Public Finance | (5) | (192) | |||||
| Other | (2) | (6) | |||||
| Totals (1) | $ | (69) | $ | (406) |
(1) Includes loss expenses incurred of $4 and $29 for the year ended years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively.
Loss and loss expenses (benefit) for 2023, was largely driven by RMBS recoveries and favorable development related to student loans, partially offset by the negative impact of discount rates on the RMBS portfolio. Changes in RMBS recoveries impacting loss and loss expenses can be volatile and therefore each period's results are not indicative of potential future results.
Losses and loss expenses (benefit) for 2022, were driven by favorable RMBS development due to the impact of the settlement agreements with the BOA Parties and Nomura of $123, the positive impact of discount rates, and favorable loss development in domestic public finance (primarily due to the Puerto Rico restructurings of $180).
G&A Expenses. The increase in Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment operating expenses during the year ended December 31, 2023, as compared to the year ended December 31, 2022, is driven primarily by additional costs related to defensive litigation, partially offset by the impact of headcount and other cost reductions in the segment.
| Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year Ended December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | |||||
| Gross premiums written | $ | 273 | $ | 146 | |||
| Net premiums written | 80 | 29 | |||||
| Revenues: | |||||||
| Net premiums earned | $ | 52 | $ | 14 | |||
| Net investment income | 4 | 2 | |||||
| Net investment gains (losses), including impairments | — | — | |||||
| Program fees | 8 | 3 | |||||
| Total | 64 | 18 | |||||
| Expenses: | |||||||
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses | 37 | 9 | |||||
| Amortization of deferred acquisition costs, net | 11 | 3 | |||||
| General and administrative expenses | 16 | 13 | |||||
| Net (gain) loss attributable to noncontrolling interest | — | — | |||||
| EBITDA | — | $ | (6) | ||||
| Pretax income (loss) | $ | — | $ | (6) | |||
| Loss and LAE Ratio | 70.7 | % | 65.4 | % | |||
| Combined Ratio | 106.5 | % | 156.5 | % | |||
| Ambac's stockholders equity (1) | $ | 122 | $ | 110 |
(1)Represents Ambac stockholders equity in the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment, including intercompany eliminations.
The Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment has grown significantly since underwriting its first program in May 2021. Twenty-three programs were authorized to issue policies as of December 31, 2023. The growth in both the number and size of these programs has contributed to the increase in gross and net premiums written, net premiums earned, net loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred and amortization of deferred acquisition costs.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 42 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses (Benefit). Loss and loss expenses incurred increased for the year ended December 31, 2023, relative to the year ended December 31, 2022, primarily due to the growth and diversification of the business. Everspan's loss ratio (including ULAE) was 70.7% and 65.4% for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively, inclusive of prior years development of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. The shift in the loss ratio was driven by commercial auto loss experience in the current accident year and diversification, primarily due to the addition of personal auto and workers compensation programs through assumed reinsurance. Everspan's loss ratio may shift as the inforce book of business grows and diversifies. The increase in the Loss and LAE ratio for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to December 31, 2022, was partially offset by a benefit to acquisition costs as a result of sliding scale commission arrangements with program partners. Such benefit reduced the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segments expense ratio by 3.2% and 1.3% for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. Certain Everspan programs were structured to include sliding scale commission arrangements within a loss ratio range. These sliding scale arrangements mitigate net income volatility.
Loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred may be adversely impacted by increasing economic and social inflation, particularly within the commercial auto business. The impact of inflation on ultimate loss reserves is difficult to estimate, particularly in light of recent disruptions to the judicial system, supply chain and labor markets. In addition, going forward, we may not be able to offset the impact of inflation on our loss costs with sufficient price increases. The estimation of loss reserves may also be more difficult during extreme events, such as a pandemic, or during the persistence of volatile or uncertain economic conditions, due to, amongst other reasons, unexpected changes in behavior of judicial decisions, claimants and policyholders, including fraudulent reporting of exposures and/or losses. Due to the inherent uncertainty underlying loss reserve estimates, the final resolution of the estimated liability for loss and loss adjustment expenses will likely be higher or lower than the related loss reserves at the reporting date. In addition, our estimate of losses and loss expenses may change. These additional liabilities or increases in estimates, or a range of either, could vary significantly from period to period.
G&A Expenses. General and administrative costs increased for the year ended December 31, 2023, relative to the year ended December 31, 2022, primarily resulting from the growth in Everspan's staffing and operations. The impact of growing operations was muted by costs incurred in 2022 in connection with the acquisition of additional shell insurance companies.
| Insurance Distribution | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year Ended December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | |||||
| Premiums placed | $ | 231 | $ | 135 | |||
| Commission income | $ | 51 | $ | 31 | |||
| Commission expense | 29 | 18 | |||||
| Net commissions | 22 | 13 | |||||
| Expenses: | |||||||
| General and administrative expenses | 11 | 6 | |||||
| EBITDA | 11 | 7 | |||||
| Depreciation (1) | — | — | |||||
| Intangible amortization | 4 | 3 | |||||
| Pretax income (loss) | $ | 7 | $ | 5 | |||
| Ambac's stockholders equity (2) | $ | 105 | $ | 93 |
(1) The Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income includes this in General and Administrative Expenses.
(2) Represents the share of Ambac stockholders equity for each subsidiary within the Insurance Distribution segment, including intercompany eliminations.
Ambac's Insurance Distribution segment, Cirrata Group "Cirrata", currently includes Xchange Benefits, a P&C MGA specializing in accident and health products; All Trans, an MGA specializing in commercial automobile insurance for specific "for-hire" auto classes; Capacity Marine, a wholesale and retail brokerage and reinsurance intermediary specializing in marine and international risk; and Riverton Insurance Agency, an insurance services business specializing in professional liability lines and consisting of a MGA and a retail agency. The Insurance Distribution business is typically compensated for its services primarily by commissions paid by insurance carriers for underwriting, structuring and/or administering polices and, in some cases, the managing of claims under an agency agreement. Commission revenues are usually based on a percentage of the premiums placed. Cirrata is also eligible to receive profit sharing contingent commissions on certain of its programs based on the underwriting results of the policies it places with the carrier, which may cause some variability in revenue and earnings.
Cirrata business placed premiums for its carriers of approximately $231 for the year ended December 31, 2023, up $95 or 70% as compared to the year ended December 31, 2022. The growth was primarily driven by (i) premiums placed by All Trans and Capacity Marine since their acquisition in November 2022; (ii) premiums placed by Riverton since its acquisition in August 2023 and (iii) organic growth at Xchange of approximately 10%.
Insurance Distribution businesses may experience seasonal impacts on their revenues and operations. For example, Employer Stop Loss business underwritten by Xchange has seasonality in January and July, which results in revenue and earnings concentrations in the first and third quarters each calendar year. Seasonal impacts on the Insurance Distribution segment, and therefore Ambac's results, may increase or decrease over time depending on the relative growth of certain classes of business as well as acquisitions.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 43 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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G&A Expenses. General and Administrative expenses for the year ended December 31, 2023, increased as compared to the year ended December 31, 2022, as a result of the addition of the operating expenses of All Trans, Capacity Marine and Riverton, which were acquired in November 2022, November 2022, and August 2023, respectively.
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Holding Company Liquidity
AFG is organized as a legal entity separate and distinct from its operating subsidiaries. AFG is a holding company with no outstanding debt. AFG’s liquidity is primarily dependent on its net assets, excluding the operating subsidiaries that it owns, totaling $211 as of December 31, 2023, and secondarily on distributions and expense sharing payments from its operating subsidiaries.
•Under an inter-company cost allocation agreement, AFG is reimbursed by AAC for a portion of certain operating costs and expenses and, if approved by OCI, entitled to an additional payment of up to $4 per year to cover expenses not otherwise reimbursed. The $4 reimbursement for 2022 expenses was approved by OCI and paid to AFG in March 2023.
•Substantial uncertainty remains as to AAC's ability to pay dividends to AFG and the timing of any such dividends.
•Everspan's ability to make future dividend payments will mostly depend on its future profitability relative to its capital needs to support growth. Everspan is not expected to pay dividends in the near term.
•Cirrata does not have any regulatory restrictions on its ability to make distributions. AFG received distributions from Cirrata of $8 and $6 during the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022.
AFG's principal uses of liquidity are: (i) the payment of operating expenses, including costs to explore opportunities to grow and diversify Ambac, (ii) the making of strategic investments, which may include illiquid investments and (iii) making capital investments to acquire, grow and/or capitalize new and/or existing businesses; such capital investments include investments in technology to support the efficient operation of our Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses. AFG may also provide short-term financial support, primarily in the form of loans, to its operating subsidiaries to support their operating requirements. AFG supported the development of the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance business, and its acquisitions, with cash contributions of $6 and $14 to the Everspan group of companies during the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively.
In the opinion of the Company’s management, the net assets of AFG are currently sufficient to meet AFG’s current liquidity requirements. However, events, opportunities or circumstances could arise that may cause AFG to seek additional capital (e.g. through the issuance of debt, equity or hybrid securities).
Operating Companies' Liquidity
Insurance:
Sources of liquidity for the Company’s insurance subsidiaries are through funds generated from premiums, recoveries of prior claim payments, reinsurance recoveries, fees, investment income and maturities and sales of investments.
•See Note 7. Insurance Contracts to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8, in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for a summary of future gross financial guarantee premiums to be collected by AAC and Ambac UK under existing insurance policies. Termination of financial guarantee policies on an accelerated basis may adversely impact AAC’s liquidity.
Cash provided from these sources is used primarily for claim payments and commutations, loss expenses, acquisition costs (Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment only), debt service (Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment only), operating expenses, reinsurance payments and purchases of securities and other investments.
•Interest and principal payments on AAC surplus notes are subject to the approval of OCI, which has full discretion over payments regardless of the liquidity position of AAC. As discussed more fully in "Results of Operations" above in this Management's Discussion and Analysis, OCI declined AAC's request to pay the principal amount of the surplus notes, plus all accrued and unpaid interest thereon, on June 7, 2023. Current principal outstanding on AAC's long-term debt consisted of $519 of surplus notes. AAC's future interest obligations on long-term debt include $475 of accrued and unpaid interest.
•AFS provided interest rate derivatives to financial guarantee customers and used derivatives to provide a partial hedge against interest rate risk in AAC's insurance and investment portfolios. Since June 30, 2023, AFS' only remaining derivative positions include a limited number of legacy customer swaps and their associated hedges. AAC lends AFS cash and securities as needed to fund payments under these derivative contracts, collateral posting requirements and operating expenses. Intercompany loans are governed by an established lending agreement with defined borrowing limits that has received non-disapproval from OCI.
Insurance subsidiaries manage their liquidity risk by maintaining comprehensive analyses of projected cash flows and maintaining specified levels of cash and short-term investments at all times. It is the opinion of the Company’s management that the insurance subsidiaries’ near term liquidity needs will be adequately met from the sources described above.
Insurance Distribution:
The liquidity requirements of our Insurance Distribution subsidiaries are met primarily by funds generated from commission receipts (both base and profit commissions). Base commissions are generally received monthly, whereas profit commissions are received only if the business underwritten is profitable. Cash provided from these sources is used primarily
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 44 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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for commissions paid to sub-producers, operating expenses and distributions to AFG and other members.
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement Discussion
The following table summarizes the net cash flows for the periods presented.
| Year Ended December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash provided by (used in): | ||||||||||
| Operating activities | $ | 200 | $ | 1,335 | $ | (131) | ||||
| Investing activities | 435 | 866 | 776 | |||||||
| Financing activities (1) | (423) | (2,163) | (657) | |||||||
| Effect of foreign exchange on cash and cash equivalents | 1 | (1) | — | |||||||
| Net cash flow | $ | 213 | $ | 38 | $ | (12) |
(1)Because the trusts established under the Puerto Rico restructurings are consolidated VIEs, certain payments made by AAC to accelerate AAC-insured bonds that were deposited into the trusts are reflected as payments of VIE liabilities within financing activities. Cash used in financing activities includes $113 and $311 from such AAC payments for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively.
Operating activities
The following represents the significant cash operating activities during the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022:
•Cash provided by (i) gross premiums (net of commissions) were $209 and $139 for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively; (ii) non-VIE interest rate derivatives were $22 and $84 for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively; (iii) non-VIE investment portfolio income was $96 and $82 for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively; and (iv) cash settlements from the Puerto Rico restructuring transactions to the consolidated trusts were $47 for the year ended December 31, 2022.
•Payments for accreted interest on redemption of the Tier 2 Notes were $50 for the year ended December 31, 2023. Payments for debt service and accreted interest on redemptions and debt repurchases of the Sitka AAC Note, Tier 2 Notes and Surplus Notes were $59, $70 and $154, respectively, for the year ended December 31, 2022.
•Payments related to (i) operating expenses were $120 and $94 for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively; (ii) reinsurance premiums paid (net of commissions) were $137 and $66 for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively; and (iii) VIE derivative payments were $326 for the year ended December 31, 2022.
•Fraud litigation recoveries of $126 allocated from the BOA Settlement Payment.
•Net Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance loss and loss adjustment expenses paid (recovered), including commutation payments, during the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022 are detailed below:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net losses paid | $ | 30 | $ | 298 | ||
| Net subrogation received (1) | (232) | (1,951) | ||||
| Net loss expenses paid | 8 | 48 | ||||
| Net cash flow | $ | (194) | $ | (1,605) |
(1)2023 includes Nomura R&W settlement proceeds of $140. 2022 includes the majority of the recoveries from the BOA Settlement Payment except for the portion allocated to fraud litigation recoveries.
Future operating cash flows will primarily be impacted by net premium collections, investment coupon receipts, fee and net commission revenues, operating expenses, net claim and loss expense payments and debt interest payments.
Financing Activities
Financing activities for the year ended December 31, 2023, included payments for the redemption of Tier 2 Notes of $97, share repurchases of $5 and paydowns and maturities of VIE debt obligations of $315.
Financing activities for the year ended December 31, 2022, included payments for repurchase of surplus notes of $191, redemption of the Sitka AAC Note of $1,210, partial redemption of Tier 2 Notes of $143, share repurchases of $14, repurchases of auction market preferred shares of $8 and paydowns and maturities of VIE debt obligations of $591 (including payments for the accelerations of the VIE trusts created from the Puerto Rico restructuring).
Collateral
AFS hedged a portion of the interest rate risk in the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment and investment portfolios, along with legacy customer interest rate swaps, with standardized derivative contracts which contain collateral or margin requirements. Since the second quarter of 2023, AFS's only remaining derivative positions include a limited number of legacy customer swaps and their associated hedges. Under these hedge agreements, AFS is required to post collateral in excess of the derivative unrealized loss amount. All AFS derivative contracts containing ratings-based downgrade triggers that could result in collateral posting or termination have been triggered. AFS may look to re-establish hedge positions that are terminated early, resulting in additional collateral obligations. The amount of additional collateral posted on derivatives contracts will depend on several variables including the degree to which counterparties exercise their termination rights (or agreements terminate automatically) and the terms on which hedges can be replaced. All collateral and margin obligations are currently met. Collateral posted by AFS totaled $50 (cash of $23 and securities at fair value of $27), including independent amounts, under these contracts at December 31, 2023.
BALANCE SHEET
Total assets increased by approximately $456 from December 31, 2022 to $8,428 at December 31, 2023, primarily due to (i) the increase in asset values of VIEs, driven by a new VIE consolidated in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the weakening of the US dollar against the British Pound Sterling and (ii) the impact on premium receivables, reinsurance
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 45 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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recoverables and deferred ceded premiums from growth in the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance business.
Total liabilities increased by approximately $349 from December 31, 2022, to $6,997 as of December 31, 2023, primarily due to (i) increases in the value of VIEs liabilities based on consistent factors as noted above in assets, and (ii) higher unearned premiums and ceded premiums payable from the growth in the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance business, partially offset by the reduction in long-term debt that was fully redeemed on January 15, 2023, primarily from the Nomura Settlement Payment as more fully described in Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8.
As of December 31, 2023, total stockholders’ equity was $1,415, compared with total stockholders’ equity of $1,305 at December 31, 2022. This increase was primarily due to a Total Comprehensive Income during 2023 primarily driven by the net income attributable to common stockholders for the year ended
December 31, 2023 of $4, unrealized gains on investments of $51 and translation gains on the consolidation of AFG's foreign subsidiaries.of $40.
Ambac's investment portfolio is managed under established guidelines designed to meet the investment objectives of AAC, Everspan, Ambac UK and AFG. Refer to "Description of the Business — Investments and Investment Policy" in this Annual Report on Form 10-K located in Part I. Item 1, for further description of Ambac's investment policies and applicable regulations.
Refer to Note 4. Investments to the Consolidated Financial Statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8 for information about Ambac's consolidated investment portfolio. Ambac's investment policies and objectives do not apply to the assets of VIEs consolidated as a result of financial guarantees written by its insurance subsidiaries.
Investment Portfolio
The following table summarizes the composition of Ambac’s investment portfolio, excluding VIE investments, at carrying value at December 31, 2023 and 2022:
| December 31, 2023 | December 31, 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consolidated | Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance | Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consolidated | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed maturity securities | $ | 1,575 | $ | 121 | $ | — | $ | 14 | $ | 1,710 | $ | 1,281 | $ | 102 | $ | — | $ | 12 | $ | 1,395 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed maturity securities - trading | $ | 27 | $ | — | $ | — | $ | — | $ | 27 | 59 | — | — | — | 59 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short-term | $ | 225 | $ | 41 | $ | 4 | $ | 156 | $ | 426 | 303 | 29 | — | 175 | 507 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other investments | $ | 457 | $ | — | $ | — | $ | 18 | $ | 475 | 552 | — | — | 16 | 568 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed maturity securities pledged as collateral | $ | 27 | $ | — | $ | — | $ | — | $ | 27 | 64 | — | — | — | 64 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total investments (1) | $ | 2,310 | $ | 162 | $ | 4 | $ | 188 | $ | 2,664 | $ | 2,259 | $ | 131 | $ | — | $ | 203 | $ | 2,593 |
(1) Includes investments denominated in non-US dollar currencies with a fair value of £342 ($436) and €25 ($27) as of December 31, 2023 and £296 ($357) and €39 ($42) as of December 31, 2022.
Ambac invests in various asset classes in its fixed maturity securities portfolio. Other investments include diversified equity interests in pooled funds. Refer to Note 4. Investments to the Consolidated Financial Statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8 for information about fixed maturity securities and pooled funds by asset class.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 46 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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The following charts provide the ratings(1) distribution of the fixed maturity investment portfolio based on fair value at December 31, 2023 and 2022.
(1)Ratings are based on the lower of Moody’s or S&P ratings. If ratings are unavailable from Moody's or S&P, Fitch ratings are used. If guaranteed, rating represents the higher of the underlying or guarantor’s financial strength rating.
(2)Below investment grade and not rated bonds insured by Ambac represented 21% and 19% of the 2023 and 2022 combined fixed maturity investment portfolios, respectively. The increase is primarily due to purchases of insured Student Loan bonds.
Premium Receivables. Ambac's premium receivables increased to $290 at December 31, 2023, from $269 at December 31, 2022. As further discussed in Note 7. Insurance Contracts to the Consolidated Financial Statements, in this Annual Report Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8, the increase is primarily due to growth in the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance Segment, including receivables related to a workers compensation program where Everspan participates as a reinsurer. At December 31, 2023, Legacy Financial Guarantee
Insurance and Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance premiums receivables were $244 and $46, respectively.
Premium receivables by payment currency were as follows:
| Currency (Amounts in millions) | Premium Receivable in Payment Currency | Premium Receivable in U.S. dollars | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Dollars | $ | 204 | $ | 204 | |||
| British Pounds | £ | 57 | 72 | ||||
| Euros | € | 12 | 13 | ||||
| Total | $ | 290 |
Reinsurance Recoverable on Paid and Unpaid Losses. Ambac has reinsurance in place pursuant to quota share, surplus share treaty and facultative agreements. To minimize its exposure to losses from reinsurers, Ambac (i) monitors the financial condition of its reinsurers; (ii) is entitled to receive collateral from its reinsurance counterparties under certain reinsurance contracts; and (iii) has certain cancellation rights that can be exercised in the event of rating agency downgrades of a reinsurer (among other events and circumstances). For those reinsurance counterparties that do not currently post collateral, Ambac’s reinsurers are well capitalized, highly rated, authorized capacity providers. Ambac benefited from letters of credit and collateral amounting to approximately $131 from its reinsurers at December 31, 2023.
As of December 31, 2023 and 2022, reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses were $195 and $115, respectively. Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance amounted to $165 and $82 at December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively; increase driven largely from growth of the business. Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance amounted to $30 and $33 at December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively.
Intangible Assets. Intangible assets includes (i) an insurance intangible asset that was established at AFG's emergence from bankruptcy in 2013, representing the difference between the fair value and aggregate carrying value of the financial guarantee insurance and reinsurance assets and liabilities; (ii) intangible assets established as part of the acquisition of Xchange in 2020, All Trans and Capacity Marine in 2022, and Riverton in 2023; and (iii) indefinite-lived intangible assets established as part of the acquisition of admitted carriers in both 2021 and 2022.
As of December 31, 2023 and 2022, the net intangible asset was $307 and $326, respectively. The decline is driven by amortization; partially offset by translation gains from the consolidation of Ambac's foreign subsidiary (Ambac UK) and established intangibles from the acquisition of Riverton.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 47 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves and Subrogation Recoverable. Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are based upon estimates of the ultimate aggregate losses inherent in the non-derivative portfolio for insurance policies issued to beneficiaries, including unconsolidated VIEs. The evaluation process for determining the level of reserves is subject to certain estimates and judgments. Refer to the "Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates" and “Results of Operations” sections of Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, in addition to Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies and Loss Reserves sections
included in Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies and Note 7. Insurance Contracts, respectively, to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, for further information on loss and loss adjustment expenses.
The loss and loss adjustment expense reserves net of subrogation recoverables and before reinsurance as of December 31, 2023 and 2022 were $756 and $534, respectively. Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are included in the Consolidated Balance Sheets as follows:
| December 31, 2023: | December 31, 2022: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Specialty Property and Casualty | Legacy Financial Guarantee | Specialty Property and Casualty | Legacy Financial Guarantee | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Present Value of Expected Net Cash Flows | Unearned Premium Revenue | Gross Lossand LossExpenseReserves (2) | Present Value of Expected Net Cash Flows | Unearned Premium Revenue | Gross Lossand LossExpenseReserves (2) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Balance Sheet Line Item | Gross Loss and Loss Expense Reserves | Claims and Loss Expenses | Recoveries | Gross Loss and Loss Expense Reserves | Claims and Loss Expenses | Recoveries | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves | $ | 197 | $ | 779 | $ | (55) | $ | (28) | $ | 893 | $ | 90 | $ | 787 | $ | (44) | $ | (28) | $ | 805 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Subrogation recoverable | — | 1 | (139) | — | (137) | — | 5 | (276) | — | (271) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Totals | $ | 197 | $ | 780 | $ | (194) | $ | (28) | $ | 756 | $ | 90 | $ | 791 | $ | (319) | $ | (28) | $ | 534 |
Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance. Ambac has exposure to various bond types issued in the debt capital markets. The bond types that have experienced the most significant claims, including through commutations, are RMBS, student loan securities and public finance securities. These bond types represent 91% of our ever-to-date insurance claims recorded with RMBS comprising 61%.
The table below indicates gross par outstanding and the components of gross loss and loss adjustment expense reserves related to policies in Ambac’s gross loss and loss adjustment expense reserves at December 31, 2023 and 2022:
| December 31, 2023: | December 31, 2022: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Present Value of Expected Net Cash Flows | Unearned Premium Revenue | Gross Loss and Loss Expense Reserves (1)(2) | Present Value of Expected Net Cash Flows | Unearned Premium Revenue | Gross Loss and Loss Expense Reserves (1)(2) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ($ in millions) | Gross Par Outstanding (1) | Claims and Loss Expenses | Recoveries | Gross Par Outstanding (1) | Claims and Loss Expenses | Recoveries | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Structured Finance | $ | 1,860 | $ | 679 | $ | (172) | $ | (10) | $ | 497 | $ | 2,050 | $ | 664 | $ | (296) | $ | (10) | $ | 358 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Domestic Public Finance | 834 | 82 | (8) | (8) | 66 | 1,215 | 96 | (11) | (10) | 75 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other | 1,144 | 15 | (13) | (10) | (8) | 782 | 23 | (12) | (8) | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Loss expenses | — | 4 | — | — | 4 | — | 8 | — | — | 8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Totals | $ | 3,838 | $ | 780 | $ | (194) | $ | (28) | $ | 559 | $ | 4,047 | $ | 791 | $ | (319) | $ | (28) | $ | 444 |
(1)Ceded par outstanding on policies with loss reserves and ceded loss and loss adjustment expense reserves were $362 and $30, respectively, at December 31, 2023 and $472 and $33, respectively at December 31, 2022. Ceded loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are included in Reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses.
(2)Loss reserves are included in the balance sheet as loss and loss adjustment expense reserves or Subrogation recoverable dependent on if a policy is in a net liability or net recoverable position.
The table below reflects the timing of expected financial guarantee claim payments based on policy specific probability weighted cash flows, excluding expected recoveries. These deal specific cash flows are based on the expected cash flows of the underlying transactions with the majority of these payments expected at or close to the final maturity of the related insurance policy. The timing of expected claim payments for credits with reserves that were established using our statistical loss reserve method is determined based on the weighted average expected life of the exposure. Refer to the Loss Reserves section in Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further discussion of our statistical loss reserve method. The timing of these payments may vary significantly from the amounts shown below, especially for credits that are based on our statistical loss reserve method.
| Payments Due by Period | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ in millions) | Total | Less Than 1 Year | 1 - 3 Years | 3 - 5 Years | More Than 5 Years | |||||||||||||
| Claim payments | $ | 1,202 | $ | 93 | $ | 51 | $ | 42 | $ | 1,016 |
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
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Variability of Expected Losses and Recoveries
Ambac’s management believes loss reserves (present value of expected cash flows, net of recoveries) are adequate to cover future claim payments, but there can be no assurance that the ultimate liability will not be higher than such estimates.
While our loss reserves reflect our judgment regarding issuers’ financial flexibility to adapt to adverse markets, they may not adequately capture sudden, unexpected or protracted uncertainty that adversely affects market conditions. Accordingly, it is possible that our estimated loss reserves, gross of reinsurance, for financial guarantee insurance policies could be understated. We have attempted to identify possible cash flows related to losses and recoveries using more stressful assumptions than the probability-weighted outcome recorded. The possible net cash flows consider the highest stress scenario that was utilized in the development of our probability-weighted expected loss at December 31, 2023, and assumes an inability to execute any commutation transactions with issuers and/or investors. Such stress scenarios are developed based on management’s view about all possible outcomes relating to losses and recoveries. In arriving at such view, management makes considerable judgments about the possibility of various future events. Although we do not believe it is possible to have stressed outcomes in all cases, it is possible that we could have stress case outcomes in some or even many cases. See “Risk Factors” in Part I, Item 1A in this Annual Report on Form 10-K as well as the descriptions of variability in "Structured Finance," "Public Finance," and "Other Credits, including Ambac UK," below for further discussion of the risks relating to future losses and recoveries that could result in more highly stressed outcomes appearing below.
The occurrence of these stressed outcomes individually or collectively would have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition and may result in materially adverse consequence for Ambac, including (without limitation) impairing the ability of AAC to honor its financial obligations, particularly its outstanding surplus note and preferred stock obligations; the initiation of rehabilitation proceedings against AAC; decreased likelihood of AAC delivering value to AFG, through dividends or otherwise; and a significant drop in the value of securities issued or insured by AFG or AAC.
Structured Finance
RMBS:
Changes to assumptions that could make our reserves under-estimated include an increase in interest rates, deterioration in housing prices, poor servicing, government intervention into the functioning of the mortgage market and the general effect of a weakened economy characterized by growing unemployment and wage pressures. During the first quarter of 2023, Ambac revised the model it uses to project RMBS collateral losses considering the seasoning of our RMBS exposure and management’s view that the most relevant determinant of prospective collateral performance is borrower payment status. Individual home price appreciation/depreciation has become a less critical determinant of performance considering the general appreciation in home values over the past few years as well as the impact of loan modifications. The average estimated loan-
to-values of the collateral related to insured exposures have declined to under 50% from peaks above 110%. Projected losses in our RMBS exposures and related loss reserves, may increase or decrease in the future. Possible stress case losses assume higher default rates, loss severities and lower prepayments.
Student Loans:
Changes to assumptions that could make our reserves under-estimated include, but are not limited to, increases in interest rates, default rates and loss severities on the collateral due to economic or other factors, including the economic impact from public health crises and/or natural or other catastrophic events. Such factors may also include lower recoveries on defaulted loans or additional losses on collateral or trust assets, including as a result of any enforcement actions by the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau. During the second quarter of 2023, we revised our approach to projecting future defaults to reflect the student loan collateral's seasoning.
Structured Finance Variability:
Using the approaches described above, the possible increase in loss reserves for structured finance credits for which we have an estimate of expected loss at December 31, 2023, could be approximately $55. Due to the uncertainties related to risks associated with structured finance credits, there can be no assurance that losses may not exceed our stress case estimates.
Public Finance
Ambac’s U.S. public finance portfolio consists of municipal bonds such as general and revenue obligations and lease and tax-backed obligations of state and local government entities; however, the portfolio also includes a wide array of non-municipal types of bonds, including transactions with public and private elements, which generally finance infrastructure, housing and other public purpose facilities and interests, the largest sector of which is U.S. military housing.
It is possible our loss reserves for public finance credits may be under-estimated if issuers are faced with prolonged exposure to adverse political, judicial, economic, fiscal or socioeconomic events or trends. Additionally, our loss reserves may be under-estimated because of the local, regional or national economic impact of public health crises and/or natural or other catastrophic events, or the impact of political changes or governmental decisions.
Our experience with the city of Detroit's bankruptcy and Commonwealth of Puerto Rico's Title III proceedings as well as other municipal bankruptcies demonstrates the preferential treatment of certain creditor classes, especially public pensions. The cost of pensions and the need to address frequently sizable unfunded or underfunded pensions is often a key driver of stress for many municipalities and their related authorities, including entities to whom we have exposure, such as Chicago's school district, the State of New Jersey and others. Less severe treatment of pension obligations in bankruptcy may lead to worse outcomes for traditional debt creditors.
Variability of outcomes applies to even what are generally considered more secure municipal financings, such as dedicated
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 49 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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sales tax revenue bonds that capture sales tax revenues for debt service ahead of any amounts being deposited into the general fund of an issuer. In the case of the Puerto Rico COFINA sales tax bonds that were part of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico's Title III proceedings, AAC and other creditors agreed to settle at a recovery rate equal to about 93% of pre-petition amounts owed on the Ambac insured senior COFINA bonds. In the COFINA case, the senior bonds still received a reduction or "haircut" despite the existence of junior COFINA bonds, which received a recovery rate equal to about 56% of pre-petition amounts owed.
In addition, municipal entities may be more inclined to use bankruptcy to resolve their financial stresses if they believe preferred outcomes for various creditor groups can be achieved. We expect municipal bankruptcies and defaults to continue to be challenging to project given the unique political, economic, fiscal, legal, governance and public policy differences among municipalities as well as the complexity, long duration and relative infrequency of the cases themselves in forums with a scarcity of legal precedent. Moreover, issuers in Chapter 9 or similar proceedings may obtain judicial rulings and orders that impair creditors' rights or their ability to collect on amounts owed. In certain cases, judicial decisions may be contrary to AAC's expectations or understanding of the law or its rights thereunder, which may lead to worse outcomes in Chapter 9 or similar proceedings than anticipated at the outset.
Another potentially adverse development that could cause the loss reserves on our public finance credits to be underestimated is deterioration in the municipal bond market, resulting from reduced or limited access to alternative forms of credit (such as bank loans) or other exogenous factors, such as changes in tax law that could reduce certain municipal investors' appetite for tax-exempt municipal bonds or put pressure on issuers in states with high state and local taxes. These factors could deprive issuers access to funding at a level necessary to avoid defaulting on their obligations.
For the public finance credits for which we have an estimate of expected loss at December 31, 2023, the sum of all the highest stress case loss scenarios is $125 and there can be no assurance that losses may not exceed such amounts.
Other Credits, including Ambac UK
It is possible our loss reserves on other types of credits, including those insured by Ambac UK, may be under-estimated because of various risks that vary widely, including the risk that we may not be able to recover or mitigate losses through our remediation processes. For all other credits, including Ambac UK, for which we have an estimate of expected loss, the sum of all the highest stress case loss scenarios is approximately $330 greater than the loss reserves at December 31, 2023. There can be no assurance that losses may not exceed our stress case estimates.
Long-term Debt. The carrying value of each of these as of December 31, 2023 and 2022 is below:
| December 31, | 2023 | 2022 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surplus Notes | $ | 491 | $ | 477 | |||
| Tier 2 Notes | — | 146 | |||||
| Ambac UK Debt | 17 | 16 | |||||
| Total Long-term Debt | 508 | 639 | |||||
| Accrued Interest Payable | 475 | 427 | |||||
| Total | $ | 983 | $ | 1,065 |
The decrease in long-term debt, including accrued interest payable, from December 31, 2022 resulted primarily from the full redemption of the Tier 2 Notes in 2023, described further in Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, partially offset by the accrual of interest on the surplus notes and Ambac UK debt. In May 2023, OCI declined the request of AAC to pay the principal amount of the surplus notes, plus all accrued and unpaid interest thereon, on the then next scheduled payment date of June 7, 2023. As a result, the scheduled payment date for interest, and the scheduled maturity date for payment of principal of the surplus notes was extended until OCI grants approval to make the payment. Interest will accrue, compounded on each anniversary of the original scheduled payment date or scheduled maturity date, on any unpaid principal or interest through the actual date of payment, at 5.1% per annum. Holders of surplus notes will have no rights to enforce the payment of the principal of, or interest on, surplus notes in the absence of OCI approval to pay such amount.
Redeemable Noncontrolling Interest. The decrease during 2023 was the result the remeasurement of the redemption value of put options provided to minority owners (noncontrolling interest holders) of Cirrata entities acquired as if the put was exercised on December 31, 2023, partially offset by new put options issued during the acquisition of Riverton during 2023. No put options are exercisable at December 31, 2023.
ACCOUNTING STANDARDS
Please refer to Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report Form 10-K for a discussion of the impact of recent accounting pronouncements on Ambac’s financial condition and results of operations.
U.S. STATUTORY BASIS FINANCIAL RESULTS
AFG's U.S. insurance subsidiaries prepare financial statements under accounting practices prescribed or permitted by its domiciliary state regulator (“SAP”) for determining and reporting the financial condition and results of operations of an insurance company. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (“NAIC”) Accounting Practices and Procedures manual (“NAIC SAP”) is adopted as a component of prescribed practices by each domiciliary state. For further information, see Note 8. Insurance Regulatory Restrictions to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report Form 10-K.
Ambac Assurance Corporation
AAC’s statutory policyholder surplus and qualified statutory capital (defined as the sum of policyholders surplus and
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mandatory contingency reserves) were $897 and $1,201, respectively, at December 31, 2023, as compared to $598 and $1,191, respectively, at December 31, 2022. As of December 31, 2023, statutory policyholder surplus and qualified statutory capital included $519 principal balance of surplus notes outstanding and $115 liquidation preference of preferred stock outstanding. These surplus notes (including related accrued interest of $475 that is not recorded under statutory basis accounting principles); preferred stock; and all other liabilities, including insurance claims are obligations that, individually and collectively, have claims on the resources of AAC that are senior to AFG's equity and therefore impede AFG's ability to realize residual value and/or receive dividends from AAC.
The significant drivers to the net increase in policyholder surplus of $301 during 2023 was a reduction to contingency reserves of $290 and investment valuation changes that are direct charges to surplus of $10. The decline in contingency reserves was the result of the release of excess contingency reserves (which was approved by OCI) of $298.
AAC's statutory surplus, and therefore AFG's ultimate ability to realize residual value and/or dividends from AAC, is sensitive to multiple factors, including: (i) loss reserve development, (ii) timing of surplus note payments, (iii) ongoing interest costs associated with surplus notes, (iv) swap gains and losses at AFS, the financial position of which is supported by certain guarantees and financing arrangements from AAC, (v) first time payment defaults of insured obligations, which increase statutory loss reserves, (vi) commutations of insurance policies at amounts that differ from the amount of liabilities recorded, (vii) reinsurance contract terminations at amounts that differ from net assets recorded, (viii) changes to the fair value of pooled fund and other investments carried at fair value, (ix) realized gains and losses, including losses arising from other than temporary impairments of investment securities, (x) the ultimate residual value of Ambac UK, which is currently a non-admitted asset under SAP and may be impacted by numerous factors including foreign exchange rates, and (xi) future changes to prescribed practices by the OCI.
The significant differences between GAAP and SAP are that under SAP:
•Under SAP, loss reserves are only established for losses on guaranteed obligations that have experienced a payment default. Loss reserves are established in an amount that is sufficient to cover the present value of the anticipated defaulted debt service payments over the expected period of default, less estimated recoveries under subrogation rights (5.1% as prescribed by OCI). Under GAAP, in addition to the establishment of loss reserves for defaulted obligations, loss reserves are established (net of GAAP basis unearned premium revenue) for obligations that have experienced credit deterioration, but have not yet defaulted using a weighted-average risk-free discount rate, currently at 3.9%.
•Mandatory contingency reserves are required based upon the type of obligation insured, whereas GAAP does not require such a reserve. Releases of the contingency reserves
are generally subject to OCI approval and relate to a determination that the held reserves are deemed excessive.
•Investment grade fixed maturity investments are stated at amortized cost and certain below investment grade fixed maturity investments are reported at the lower of amortized cost or fair value. Under GAAP, all fixed maturity investments are reported at fair value.
•Majority owned subsidiaries are not consolidated; rather, the equity basis of accounting is utilized and the carrying values of these investments are subject to admissibility tests. Ambac Assurance's cash loan to AFS is included on the SAP balance sheet, net of an allowance for uncollectible amounts and changes in the allowance are recognized through other income. Under GAAP, all inter-company transactions are eliminated in consolidation.
•Variable interest entities ("VIE") are not required to be assessed for consolidation. Under GAAP, a reporting entity that has both the following characteristics is required to consolidate the VIE: a) the power to direct the activities of the VIE that most significantly impact the VIE’s economic performance and b) the obligation to absorb losses of the VIE or the right to receive benefits from the VIE that could potentially be significant to the VIE. AAC generally has the obligation to absorb losses of VIEs that could potentially be significant to the VIE as the result of its guarantee of insured obligations issued by VIEs. For certain VIEs AAC has the power to direct the most significant activities of the VIE and accordingly consolidates the related VIEs under GAAP.
•Under SAP, unpaid interest due on the surplus notes is expensed when the approval for payment of interest has been granted by the OCI. Under GAAP, interest on surplus notes is accrued regardless of OCI approval. Under SAP, the principal balance of surplus notes is included in surplus whereas under GAAP surplus note principal is reported at par, less unamortized discount within long-term debt. All payments of principal and interest on surplus notes are subject to the approval of the OCI.
•Upfront premiums written are earned on a basis proportionate to the remaining scheduled debt service to the original total principal and interest insured. Installment premiums are reflected in income pro-rata over the period covered by the premium payment. Under GAAP, premium revenues for both upfront and installment premiums are earned over the life of the financial guarantee contract in proportion to the insured principal amount outstanding at each reporting date. Under GAAP, for installment premium transactions, a premium receivable asset and offsetting UPR liability are established in an amount equal to the present value of future premiums to be collected over the life of the transaction.
•Insurance intangibles that arose as a result of the implementation of Fresh Start reporting are not a concept within SAP. This insurance intangible asset is amortized as an expense on a level yield basis over the life of the related insurance risks.
•Unearned premiums and loss reserves are presented net of ceded amounts, while under GAAP, they are reflected gross of ceded amounts.
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Everspan Indemnity Insurance Company
Everspan Indemnity Insurance Company’s statutory policyholder surplus was $108 at December 31, 2023, as compared to $107 at December 31, 2022.
The significant changes to policyholder surplus for the year ended December 31, 2023, were total capital contributions of $7.3, offset by a net loss at Everspan Indemnity Insurance Company, including its subsidiaries, of $7.1 during the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily driven by G&A expenses as the business continues to scale. Acquisition costs, primarily commissions, are generally expensed immediately whereas the related premium is recognized over the life of the policy.
The significant differences between GAAP and SAP are that under SAP:
•Investment grade fixed maturity investments are stated at amortized cost and certain below investment grade fixed maturity investments are reported at the lower of amortized cost or fair value. Under GAAP, all fixed maturity investments are reported at fair value.
•Majority owned subsidiaries are not consolidated; rather, the equity basis of accounting is utilized and the carrying values of these investments are subject to admissibility tests. Providence Washington Insurance Company's ("PWIC") and the 21st Century Companies' (as defined in Note 7. Insurance Contracts in Part II, Item 8 in the Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K) carrying values include a goodwill component representing the acquisition cost in excess of the related entity's statutory surplus. Goodwill is amortized over ten years. Under GAAP, the initial acquisition of the companies were recorded as asset acquisitions, which required i) all net assets to initially be recorded at fair value, and ii) the acquisition costs in excess of the fair value of net assets to be allocated to the bases of certain types of assets based on their relative fair values, if applicable. Acquired assets include intangible assets with indefinite lives. Such assets are not amortized but their estimated useful lives are reevaluated each reporting period. No goodwill is recorded for asset acquisitions.
•Acquisition costs and ceding commissions, other than excess ceding commissions, are expensed or recognized at the time of a transaction. Under GAAP, acquisition costs and ceding commissions are deferred and recognized over the life of the related transaction.
•Unearned premiums and loss reserves are presented net of ceded amounts, while under GAAP, they are reflected gross of ceded amounts.
AMBAC UK FINANCIAL RESULTS UNDER UK ACCOUNTING PRINCIPLES
Ambac UK is required to prepare financial statements under FRS 102 "The Financial Reporting Standard applicable in the UK and Republic of Ireland." Ambac UK’s shareholder funds under UK GAAP were £489 at December 31, 2023, as compared to £468 at December 31, 2022. At December 31, 2023, the carrying value of cash and investments was £535, an increase from £508 at December 31, 2022. The increase in shareholder funds and cash and investments was primarily due to the
continued receipt of premiums and investment income, and from foreign exchange gains within Ambac UK's investment portfolio, partially offset by loss expenses, operating expenses and tax payments.
The significant differences between US GAAP and UK GAAP are that under UK GAAP:
•Loss reserves are only established for losses on guaranteed obligations when, in the judgment of management, a monetary default in the timely payment of debt service is likely to occur, which would result in Ambac UK incurring a loss. A loss provision is established in an amount that is sufficient to cover the present value of the anticipated defaulted debt service payments over the expected period of default, less estimated recoveries under subrogation rights. The discount rate for loss provisions is equal to the lower of the rate of return on invested assets for either the current year or the period covering the current year plus the four previous years, currently at 3.2%. The discount rate used for estimated recoveries under subrogation rights is reflective of the credit risk of the counterparty from which subrogation will be received, currently 5.3%. Under U.S. GAAP, loss reserves are established (net of US GAAP basis unearned premium revenue) for obligations that have experienced credit deterioration, but have not yet defaulted using a weighted-average risk-free discount rate, currently at 3.9%.
•Investments in fixed maturity securities are stated at amortized cost, subject to an other-than-temporary impairment evaluation. Under US GAAP, all fixed maturity investments are reported at fair value.
•VIEs are not required to be assessed for consolidation. Under US GAAP, as noted under U.S. Statutory Basis Financial Results above, VIE's with certain characteristics are required to be consolidated. For several VIEs Ambac UK has the power to direct the most significant activities of the VIE and accordingly consolidates the related VIEs under U.S. GAAP.
•Upfront premiums written are earned on a basis proportionate to the remaining scheduled debt service to the total principal and interest insured. Installment premiums are reflected in income pro-rata over the period covered by the premium payment. Under US GAAP, premium revenues for both upfront and installment premiums are earned over the life of the financial guarantee contract in proportion to the insured principal amount outstanding at each reporting date. Under GAAP, for installment premium transactions, a premium receivable asset and offsetting UPR liability are established in an amount equal to the present value of future premiums to be collected over the life of the transaction.
•Insurance intangibles that arose as a result of the implementation of Fresh Start reporting are not a concept within UK GAAP. Under US GAAP, this insurance intangible asset is amortized as an expense on a level yield basis over the life of the related insurance risks.
•Unearned premiums and loss reserves are presented net of ceded amounts, while under GAAP, they are reflected gross of ceded amounts.
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Ambac UK is also required to prepare financial information in accordance with the Solvency II Directive. The basis of preparation of this information is significantly different from both US GAAP and UK GAAP.
Available and eligible capital resources under Solvency II, to meet solvency capital requirements, were £430 at December 31, 2023. This is an increase from December 31, 2022, when available and eligible capital resources to meet solvency capital requirements were £338. Eligible capital resources at December 31, 2023 and December 31, 2022, are in comparison to regulatory capital requirements of £220 and £213, respectively. Therefore, Ambac UK was in a surplus position in terms of compliance with applicable regulatory capital requirements by £210 at December 31, 2023, and was in a surplus position by £125 at December 31, 2022. The surplus increased as of December 31, 2023, due to the combined impact of (i) a decrease in technical provision liabilities and hence an increase in eligible own funds due to regulatory changes which came into effect in December 2023 and (ii) an increase in eligible own funds from the increase in investments over the year.
Final annual Solvency II data and Ambac UK's annual Solvency and Financial Condition Report will be published on Ambac's website in April 2023.
NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
In addition to reporting the Company’s quarterly financial results in accordance with GAAP, the Company is reporting non-GAAP financial measures: EBITDA, Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Book Value. These amounts are derived from our consolidated financial information, but are not presented in our consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP.
We present non-GAAP supplemental financial information because we believe such information is of interest to the investment community, and that it provides greater transparency and enhanced visibility into the underlying drivers and performance of our businesses on a basis that may not be otherwise apparent on a GAAP basis. We view these non-GAAP financial measures as important indicators when assessing and evaluating our performance on a segmented and consolidated basis and they are presented to improve the comparability of our results between periods by eliminating the impact of the items that may not be representative of our core operating performance. These non-GAAP financial measures are not substitutes for the Company’s GAAP reporting, should not be viewed in isolation and may differ from similar reporting provided by other companies, which may define non-GAAP measures differently.
Beginning January 1, 2023, Ambac replaced the non-GAAP measure Adjusted Earnings with a new non-GAAP measure Adjusted Net Income to better align with other participants in the Property & Casualty insurance industry, including insurance carriers and other peers in the insurance distribution business.
We are presenting Adjusted Net Income for the current and prior periods contained within this Form 10-K so this non-GAAP financial measure compares both periods on the same basis.
The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure. A tabular reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most comparable GAAP financial measure is also presented below.
EBITDA — We define EBITDA as net income (loss) before interest expense, income taxes, depreciation and amortization of intangible assets.
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| Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance | Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consolidated | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year Ended December 31, 2023 | |||||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) | $ | 9 | $ | — | $ | 7 | $ | (11) | $ | 5 | |||||||
| Adjustments: | |||||||||||||||||
| Interest expense | 64 | — | — | — | 64 | ||||||||||||
| Income taxes | 8 | — | — | (1) | 7 | ||||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1 | — | — | — | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Amortization of intangible assets | 25 | — | 4 | — | 29 | ||||||||||||
| EBITDA (1) | $ | 107 | $ | — | $ | 11 | $ | (12) | $ | 107 | |||||||
| Year Ended December 31, 2022 | |||||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) | $ | 537 | $ | (6) | $ | 5 | $ | (13) | $ | 522 | |||||||
| Adjustments: | |||||||||||||||||
| Interest expense | 168 | — | — | — | 168 | ||||||||||||
| Income taxes | 3 | — | — | — | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2 | — | — | — | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Amortization of intangible assets | 44 | — | 3 | — | 47 | ||||||||||||
| EBITDA (1) | $ | 754 | $ | (6) | $ | 7 | $ | (14) | $ | 742 | |||||||
| Year Ended December 31, 2021 | |||||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) | $ | 4 | $ | (8) | $ | 4 | $ | (17) | $ | (16) | |||||||
| Adjustments: | |||||||||||||||||
| Interest expense | 187 | — | — | — | 187 | ||||||||||||
| Income taxes | 16 | — | — | 2 | 18 | ||||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2 | — | — | — | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Amortization of intangible assets | 52 | — | 3 | — | 55 | ||||||||||||
| EBITDA (1) | $ | 262 | $ | (8) | $ | 6 | $ | (15) | $ | 246 |
(1)EBITDA is prior to the impact of noncontrolling interests, and relates to subsidiaries where Ambac does not own 100% in the amounts of $2, $1 and $1 for the years ended December 31, 2023, 2022 and 2021, respectively. The noncontrolling interest are primarily in the Insurance Distribution segment.
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) — We define Adjusted Net Income (Loss) as net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders adjusted to reflect the following items: (i) net investment (gains) losses, including impairments; (ii) amortization of intangible assets; (iii) litigation costs, including attorneys fees and other expenses to defend litigation against the Company, excluding loss adjustment expenses; (iv) foreign exchange (gains) losses; (v) workforce change costs, which primarily include severance and other costs related to employee terminations; and (vi) net
(gain) loss on extinguishment of debt. Adjusted Net Income is also adjusted for the effect of the above items on both income taxes and noncontrolling interests. The income tax effects are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each jurisdiction that generate these adjustments. The noncontrolling interest adjustments relate to subsidiaries where Ambac does not own 100%
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 54 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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The following table reconciles net income attributable to common stockholders to the non-GAAP measure, Adjusted Net Income (Loss) on a total dollar amount and per diluted share basis, for all periods presented:
| 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ in millions, except per share data)Year Ended December 31, | $ Amount | Per Diluted Share (1) | $ Amount | Per Diluted Share (1) | $ Amount | Per Diluted Share (1) | ||||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders | $ | 4 | $ | 0.18 | $ | 522 | $ | 11.31 | $ | (17) | $ | (0.61) | ||||||||||
| Adjustments: | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net investment (gains) losses, including impairments | 22 | 0.49 | (31) | (0.68) | (7) | (0.14) | ||||||||||||||||
| Intangible amortization | 29 | 0.62 | 47 | 1.01 | 55 | 1.19 | ||||||||||||||||
| Litigation costs | 41 | 0.87 | 33 | 0.71 | 7 | 0.15 | ||||||||||||||||
| Foreign exchange (gains) losses | (1) | (0.02) | 3 | 0.06 | 3 | 0.06 | ||||||||||||||||
| Workforce change costs | 1 | 0.02 | 1 | 0.03 | 1 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||
| Net (gain) loss on extinguishment of debt | — | — | (81) | (1.75) | (33) | (0.70) | ||||||||||||||||
| Pretax adjusted net income (loss) | 96 | 2.16 | 494 | 10.69 | 9 | (0.04) | ||||||||||||||||
| Income tax effects | (2) | (0.03) | 2 | 0.04 | (1) | (0.02) | ||||||||||||||||
| Net (gains) attributable to noncontrolling interests | (1) | (0.02) | (1) | (0.01) | (1) | (0.01) | ||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted Net Income (Loss) | $ | 93 | $ | 2.11 | $ | 495 | $ | 10.72 | $ | 7 | $ | (0.07) |
(1) Per diluted share includes the impact of adjusting redeemable noncontrolling interest to its redemption value.
Adjusted Book Value. Adjusted book value is defined as Total Ambac Financial Group, Inc. stockholders’ equity as reported under GAAP, adjusted for after-tax impact of the following:
•Insurance intangible asset: Elimination of the financial guarantee insurance intangible asset that arose as a result of Ambac’s emergence from bankruptcy and the implementation of Fresh Start reporting. This adjustment ensures that all financial guarantee contracts are accounted for within adjusted book value consistent with the provisions of the Financial Services—Insurance Topic of the ASC.
•Net unearned premiums and fees in excess of expected losses: Addition of the value of the unearned premium revenue ("UPR") on financial guarantee contracts, in excess of expected losses, net of reinsurance. This non-GAAP adjustment presents the economics of UPR and expected losses for financial guarantee contracts on a consistent basis. In accordance with GAAP, stockholders’ equity reflects a reduction for expected losses only to the extent they exceed UPR. However, when expected losses are less
than UPR for a financial guarantee contract, neither expected losses nor UPR have an impact on stockholders’ equity. This non-GAAP adjustment adds UPR in excess of expected losses, net of reinsurance, to stockholders’ equity for financial guarantee contracts where expected losses are less than UPR. This adjustment is only made for financial guarantee contracts since such premiums are non-refundable.
•Net unrealized investment (gains) losses in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income: Elimination of the unrealized gains and losses on the Company’s investments that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (“AOCI”), net of income taxes.
Ambac has a significant U.S. tax net operating loss (“NOL”) that is offset by a full valuation allowance in the GAAP consolidated financial statements. As a result of this, tax planning strategies and other considerations, we utilized a 0% effective tax rate for non-GAAP operating adjustments to Adjusted Book.
The following table reconciles Total Ambac Financial Group, Inc. stockholders’ equity to the non-GAAP measure Adjusted Book Value on a dollar amount and per share basis, for all periods presented:
| 2023 | 2022 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ in millions, except per share data) December 31, | $ Amount | Per Share | $ Amount | Per Share | ||||||||||
| Total Ambac Financial Group, Inc. stockholders’ equity | $ | 1,362 | $ | 30.13 | $ | 1,252 | $ | 27.85 | ||||||
| Adjustments: | ||||||||||||||
| Insurance intangible asset | (245) | (5.43) | (266) | (5.91) | ||||||||||
| Net unearned premiums and fees in excess of expected losses | 162 | 3.59 | 214 | 4.76 | ||||||||||
| Net unrealized investment (gains) losses in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (Loss) | 20 | 0.45 | 71 | 1.59 | ||||||||||
| Adjusted Book Value | $ | 1,299 | $ | 28.74 | $ | 1,272 | $ | 28.29 |
The increase in Adjusted Book was primarily attributable to Ambac's net income for the year ended December 31, 2023 (excluding earned premium previously included in Adjusted Book Value) and the positive effect of foreign exchange rates on the consolidation of AFG's foreign subsidiaries, partially offset by the impact of the reinsurance de-risking transaction executed during 2023.
Factors that impact changes to Adjusted Book Value include many of the same factors that impact Adjusted Net Income, including the majority of revenues and expenses, but generally exclude components of premium earnings since they are embedded in prior period's Adjusted Book Value through the net unearned premiums and fees in excess of expected losses adjustment. Net unearned premiums and fees in excess of
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Ambac Financial Group, Inc | 55 | 2023 Form 10-K |
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expected losses will affect Adjusted Book Value for (i) changes to future premium assumptions (e.g. expected term, interest rates, foreign currency rates, time passage) and (ii) changes to expected losses for policies which do not exceed their related unearned premiums and (iii) new reinsurance transactions.
FY 2022 10-K MD&A
SEC filing source: 0000874501-23-000040.
Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
The objectives of our Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (“MD&A”) are to provide users of our consolidated financial statements with the following:
•A narrative explanation from the perspective of management of our financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, liquidity and certain other factors that may affect future results;
•Context to the consolidated financial statements; and
•Information that allows assessment of the likelihood that past performance is indicative of future performance.
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements in Item 8 of this Report and the matters described under Item 1A. Risk Factors in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022. Refer to Item 1. Description of the Business and Note 1. Background and Business Description for a description of our business and our key strategies to achieve our primary goal to maximize shareholder value.
Organization of Information
MD&A includes the following sections:
| Page | |
|---|---|
| Executive Summary | 27 |
| Critical Accounting Estimates | 30 |
| Financial Guarantees in Force | 32 |
| Results of Operations | 38 |
| Liquidity and Capital Resources | 44 |
| Balance Sheet | 46 |
| Accounting Standards | 52 |
| Ambac Assurance Statutory Basis Financial Results | 52 |
| Ambac UK Financial Results under UK Accounting Principles | 54 |
| Non-GAAP Financial Measures | 54 |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ($ in millions)
AFG Net Assets:
AFG has the following net assets to support its goals and strategies, including the development and growth of its Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses, acquisitions and capital management. AFG does not have any commitment or other obligation to provide capital or liquidity to AAC, whose financial guarantee business has been in run-off since 2008. As of December 31, 2022, AFG's stand alone net assets, excluding its equity investments in subsidiaries, were $223.
| ($ in millions) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and short-term investments | $ | 178 | |
| Other investments (1) | 28 | ||
| Other net assets | 17 | ||
| Total | $ | 223 |
(1)Includes strategic minority investments in insurance services businesses of $24, including investments of $5 made during 2022.
From April 1, 2022, through December 31, 2022, AFG repurchased 1,605,316 shares for $14 at an average purchase price of $8.86 per share.
AFG's subsidiaries/businesses are divided into three segments, the key value metrics of which are summarized below along with other recent developments.
Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance Segment
The key value metrics for the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021 were as follows:
| Year ended December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross premiums written | $ | 146 | $ | 13 | |||
| Net premiums written | 29 | 3 | |||||
| Pretax income (loss) | $ | (6) | $ | (8) | |||
| Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization | (6) | (8) | |||||
| Loss ratio | 65.4 | % | 71.4 | % | |||
| Stockholders Equity (1) | $ | 110 | $ | 109 |
(1)Represents Ambac's stockholders equity in the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment, including intercompany eliminations.
To support expansion of the admitted insurance component of its business, on January 3, 2022, Everspan (rated 'A-' (Excellent) by AM Best) completed the acquisition of three admitted carriers (the "21st Century Companies") from a national insurance group that has a Financial Strength Rating of “A” (Excellent) from AM Best. The 21st Century Companies collectively possess certificates of authority in thirty-nine states. All legacy liabilities remain with affiliates of the sellers through reinsurance and contractual indemnities. Such acquisitions enhanced Everspan's capabilities to launch new admitted programs, develop innovative products and provide enhanced flexibility to foster strategic relationships with prospective program partners.
For additional information on the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance Segment see the Results of Operations section below in this Management Discussion and Analysis.
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Insurance Distribution Segment
The key value metrics for the Insurance Distribution segment for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021 were as follows:
| Year ended December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premiums placed | $ | 135 | $ | 117 | |||
| Commission income | 31 | 26 | |||||
| Sub-producer commission expense | 18 | 15 | |||||
| Net commissions | 13 | 12 | |||||
| Pretax income (loss) | $ | 5 | $ | 4 | |||
| Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization | 6 | 5 | |||||
| Stockholders Equity (1) | $ | 93 | $ | 66 |
(1)Represents Ambac's stockholders equity in the Insurance Distribution segment, including intercompany eliminations.
Effective November 1, 2022, Ambac acquired controlling interests in All Trans Risk Solutions, LLC ("All Trans") and Capacity Marine Corporation ("Capacity Marine"), adding approximately $60 of annual premiums placed to the Insurance Distribution segment, for a collective purchase price of $26. Refer to Note 4. Business Combination to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further details on these acquisitions.
For additional information about the Insurance Distribution Segment see the Results of Operations section below in this Management Discussion and Analysis.
Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance Segment
The key value metrics for the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021 were as follows:
| Year ended December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net premiums earned | $ | 42 | $ | 46 | |||
| Net investment income | 12 | 138 | |||||
| Net gains on derivative contracts | 128 | 22 | |||||
| Net realized gains on extinguishment of debt | 81 | 33 | |||||
| Litigation recoveries | 126 | — | |||||
| Loss and lossadjustment expenses (benefit) | (406) | (89) | |||||
| General and administrative expenses | 102 | 77 | |||||
| Interest expense | 168 | 187 | |||||
| Pretax income (loss) | $ | 540 | $ | 20 | |||
| Stockholders Equity (1) | $ | 826 | $ | 684 | |||
| Adversely Classified Credit Net Par Outstanding | $ | 4,735 | $ | 6,361 |
(1)Represents Ambac's stockholders equity in the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment, including intercompany eliminations and insurance intangible assets of $266.
A key strategy for Ambac is to increase the value of its investment in AAC by actively managing its assets and liabilities. Asset management primarily entails maximizing the risk-adjusted return on non-VIE invested assets and managing liquidity to help ensure resources are available to meet
operational and strategic cash needs. These strategic cash needs include activities associated with Ambac's liability management and loss mitigation programs.
Settlement of RMBS Litigations and Redemption of Secured Notes:
In October 2022, AAC entered into a Settlement Agreement and Release (the “BOA Settlement Agreement”) with Bank of America Corporation and certain affiliates thereof (together, the “BOA Parties”) whereby the BOA Parties paid AAC the sum of $1,840 (the “BOA Settlement Payment”). In connection with the Settlement Payment, as required under the terms of AAC's secured debt, AAC utilized $1,431 of the BOA Settlement Payment to redeem a majority of the principal and accrued interest of its secured debt.
On December 29, 2022, AAC entered into a Settlement Agreement and Release (the “Nomura Settlement Agreement”) with Nomura Credit & Capital, Inc. (“Nomura”) to settle its RMBS litigation against Nomura. As a result, Nomura paid AAC $140 million (the "Nomura Settlement Payment") in January 2023. AAC used all proceeds of the Nomura Settlement Payment plus cash on hand to repay the remaining outstanding balance of Tier 2 Notes (as described in Note 13. Long-Term Debt to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K).
The settlements with the BOA Parties and Nomura brought to closure all of AAC's legacy litigation against RMBS sponsors.
These settlement receipts materially exceeded the amount of subrogation recovery recorded on Ambac’s consolidated GAAP financial statements. Refer to Note 1. Background and Business Description in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further details of the BOA Settlement Agreement and the Nomura Settlement Agreement and related impacts on Ambac's Statement of Comprehensive Income.
Asset Management
Investment portfolios are subject to internal investment guidelines as well as restrictions imposed by insurance laws and regulations which limit the types and quality of investments a carrier may acquire. In the case of AAC, the Wisconsin Office of the Commissioner of Insurance ("OCI") has the right to approve changes to the investment guidelines pursuant to the Settlement Agreement, dated as of June 7, 2010 (the "Settlement Agreement"), by and among AAC, Ambac Credit Products LLC ("ACP"), AFG and certain counterparties to credit default swaps with ACP that were guaranteed by AAC. The investment portfolios of AAC and Ambac UK hold fixed maturity securities and various pooled investment funds. Refer to Note 5. Investments to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further details of fixed maturity investments by asset category and pooled investment funds by investment type.
At December 31, 2022 and 2021, Ambac and its subsidiaries owned $286 and $609, respectively, of distressed AAC and Ambac UK-insured bonds, including significant concentrations of insured RMBS bonds and, in 2021, insured Puerto Rico bonds. As a result of the Puerto Rico restructurings discussed under "Liability and Insured Exposure Management" below,
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there are no AAC-insured Puerto Rico bonds held in the investment portfolio as of December 31, 2022.
Subject to internal and regulatory guidelines, market conditions and other constraints, Ambac may continue to opportunistically purchase or sell AAC and Ambac UK-insured securities, surplus notes and/or other AAC issued securities, and may consider opportunities to exchange securities issued by AAC for other securities issued by AFG or AAC.
Liability and Insured Exposure Management
AAC's Risk Management Group focuses on the implementation and execution of risk reduction, defeasance and loss recovery strategies. Analysts evaluate the estimated timing and severity of projected policy claims as well as the potential impact of loss mitigation or remediation strategies in order to target and prioritize policies, or portions thereof, for commutation, reinsurance, refinancing, restructuring or other risk reduction strategies. For targeted policies, analysts will engage with issuers, bondholders and other economic stakeholders to negotiate, structure and execute such strategies. During 2022, Ambac completed risk reduction transactions consisting of refinancings and commutations of $2,707, of which, $806 related to Puerto Rico. Refer below to the Financial Guarantees In Force section of the Management Discussion and Analysis for Results of Operations, Financial Guarantees in Force for additional details of the Puerto Rico restructuring.
The following table provides a comparison of total, adversely classified ("ACC") and watch list (as described in Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K) credit net par outstanding in the insured portfolio at December 31, 2022 and 2021. Net par exposure within the U.S. public finance market includes capital appreciation bonds which are reported at the par amount at the time of issuance of the insurance policy as opposed to the current accreted value of the bonds.
| ($ in billions) December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | Variance | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $ | 22,613 | $ | 28,020 | $ | (5,407) | (19) | % | ||||||
| ACC | $ | 4,735 | $ | 6,361 | $ | (1,626) | (26) | % | ||||||
| Watch List | $ | 3,044 | $ | 3,824 | $ | (780) | (20) | % |
The decrease in total, ACC and watch list credit net par outstanding resulted from active de-risking (including AAC's exposures to Puerto Rico), and strengthening of the USD versus the GBP and EURO, as well as scheduled maturities, amortizations, refundings and calls.
Russia and Ukraine Conflict
The current conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the related sanctions and other penalties imposed by countries across the globe against Russia are creating substantial uncertainty in the global economy. We do not have operations in Russia or Ukraine or any insured exposures in those countries. Ambac's investment portfolio exposure to Russian issuers is not meaningful. Given our insignificant exposure, we have not experienced, and do not expect this conflict to have, a material adverse impact on our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. However, as the conflict continues and if it were
to escalate, the global economy and capital markets may be adversely impacted in ways that we cannot predict and therefore we are unable to estimate the ultimate impact that this conflict may have on our future financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows.
Financial Statement Impact of Foreign Currency
The impact of foreign currency as reported in Ambac's Consolidated Statement of Total Comprehensive Income (Loss) for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021 included the following:
| ($ in millions) December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income (1) | $ | 11 | $ | (7) | ||
| Gain (losses) on foreign currency translation (net of tax) | (85) | (8) | ||||
| Unrealized gains (losses) on non-functional currency available-for-sale securities (net of tax) | 11 | 3 | ||||
| Impact on total comprehensive income (loss) | $ | (63) | $ | (12) |
(1) A portion of Ambac UK's, and to a lesser extent AAC's, assets and liabilities are denominated in currencies other than its functional currency and accordingly, we recognized net foreign currency transaction gains/(losses) as a result of changes to foreign currency rates through our Consolidated Statement of Total Comprehensive Income (Loss). Refer to Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report in Form 10-K for further details on transaction gains and losses.
Future changes to currency rates, may adversely affect our financial results. Refer to Part II, Item 7A "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk" for further information on the impact of future currency rate changes on Ambac's financial instruments.
LIBOR Sunset
Ambac continuously monitors regulatory and industry developments related to the transition from LIBOR to alternative reference rates. In 2021, New York State passed legislation addressing the cessation of U.S. Dollar ("USD") LIBOR and specified a recommended benchmark replacement based on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate ("SOFR") for certain legacy transactions. Similar federal legislation was passed into law in March 2022 and the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors adopted the final rules for implementing this legislation in December 2022. While Ambac believes the LIBOR law is a positive step, there remains some uncertainty about how it will be interpreted or challenged as well as about other aspects of the discontinuance of LIBOR. At the same time, regulatory and governmental authorities continue to promote the creation and functioning of post-LIBOR indices, SOFR in particular. See the Risk Factor entitled "Uncertainties regarding the expected discontinuance of the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate or any other interest rate benchmark could have adverse consequences" found in Part I, Item 1A of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
SEC Proposed Rules on Climate Related Information
On March 21, 2022, the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) proposed rule amendments that would require public
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companies to include certain climate-related information in their periodic reports and registration statements, including oversight and governance, material impacts (operational and financial), risk identification and management, and Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions (the “Proposed Rule”). For accelerated filers, such as Ambac, the Scope 1 and 2 emissions disclosures would require attestation from a third party. These new requirements, if adopted, would at the earliest take effect in fiscal year 2024 and begin to apply to SEC filings in 2025. Ambac is reviewing the Proposed Rule and assessing related compliance obligations and other effects on our operations.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES AND ESTIMATES
Ambac's Consolidated Financial Statements have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. This section highlights accounting estimates management views as critical because they are most important to the portrayal of the Company's financial condition; and require management to make difficult and subjective judgments regarding matters that are inherently uncertain and subject to change. These estimates are evaluated on an on-going basis considering historical developments, political events, market conditions, industry trends and other information. There can be no assurance that actual results will conform to estimates and that reported results of operations will not be materially adversely affected by the need to make future accounting adjustments to reflect changes in these estimates from time to time.
Management has identified the following critical accounting policies and estimates: (i) valuation of financial guarantee loss and loss adjustment expense reserves, (ii) valuation of certain financial instruments and (iii) valuation of deferred tax assets. Management has discussed each of these critical accounting policies and estimates with the Audit Committee, including the reasons why they are considered critical and how current and anticipated future events impact those determinations. Additional information about these policies can be found in Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K.
Valuation of Financial Guarantee Losses and Loss Expense Reserves (including Subrogation Recoverables)
The loss and loss adjustment expense reserves and subrogation recoverable assets (collectively defined as "loss reserves") discussed in this section relate only to Ambac’s non-derivative financial guarantee insurance policies issued to beneficiaries, including unconsolidated VIEs. A loss reserve is recorded on the balance sheet on a policy-by-policy basis at the present value ("PV") of expected net claim cash outflows or expected net recovery cash inflows, discounted at risk-free rates. The estimate for future net cash flows consider the likelihood of all possible outcomes that may occur from missed principal and/or interest payments on the insured obligation. This estimate also considers future recoveries related to remediation strategies and other contractual or subrogation-related cash flows.
The evaluation process for expected future net cash flows is subject to certain estimates and judgments regarding the probability of default by the issuer of the insured security, probability of negotiation or settlement outcomes (which may include commutation, litigation and other settlements, and/or a refinancing), probability of a restructuring outcome (which may include payment moratoriums, debt haircuts and/or subsequent recoveries) and the expected loss severity of credits for each insurance contract.
As the probability of default for an individual credit increases and/or the severity of loss given a default increases, our loss reserve for that insured obligation will also increase. Political, economic, credit or other unforeseen events could have an adverse impact on default probabilities and loss severities. The loss reserves for many transactions are derived from the issuer’s creditworthiness. For public finance issuers, loss reserves will consider not only creditworthiness but also political dynamics and economic status and prospects. The loss reserves for transactions which have no direct issuer support, such as most structured finance exposures, including RMBS and student loan exposures, are derived from the default activity and the estimated loss given default of the underlying collateral supporting the transactions. In addition, many transactions have a combination of issuer/entity and collateral support. Loss reserves reflect our assessment of the transaction’s overall structure, support and expected performance. Loss reserve volatility will be a direct result of the credit performance of our insured portfolio, including the number, size, bond types and quality of credits included in our loss reserves; our ability to execute workout strategies and commutations; economic and market conditions; and management's judgments with regards to the current performance and future developments within the insured portfolio. The number and severity of credits included in our loss reserves depend to a large extent on transaction specific attributes, but will generally increase during periods of economic stress and decline during periods of economic prosperity. Reinsurance contracts mitigate our loss reserves but since Ambac currently has minimal exposure ceded to reinsurers on financial guarantee credits with loss reserves, the existing reinsurance contracts are unlikely to have a significant effect on loss reserve volatility. Loss reserve volatility will also be materially impacted by changes in interest rates from period to period.
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The table below indicates the gross par outstanding and gross loss reserves (including loss expenses) related to policies in Ambac’s Financial Guarantee loss and loss adjustment expense reserves at December 31, 2022 and 2021:
| Gross ParOutstanding(1) (2) | Gross Loss and Loss Adjustment ExpenseReserves(1) (3) (4) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2022 | |||||||
| Structured Finance | $ | 2,050 | $ | 358 | |||
| Domestic Public Finance | 1,215 | 75 | |||||
| Other | 782 | 3 | |||||
| Loss expenses | — | 8 | |||||
| Totals | $ | 4,047 | 444 | ||||
| December 31, 2021 | |||||||
| Structured Finance | $ | 2,371 | (1,178) | ||||
| Domestic Public Finance | 2,742 | 562 | |||||
| Other | 1,189 | 17 | |||||
| Loss expenses | — | 45 | |||||
| Totals | $ | 6,302 | (554) |
(1) Ceded par outstanding on policies with loss reserves and ceded loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are $472 and $33 respectively, at December 31, 2022, and $784 and $24, respectively at December 31, 2021. Ceded loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are included in Reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses.
(2) Gross Par Outstanding includes capital appreciation bonds, which are reported at the par amount at the time of issuance of the insurance policy as opposed to the current accreted value of the bond.
(3) Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense reserves at December 31, 2022, of $444 are included in the balance sheet in the following line items: Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves: $715 and Subrogation recoverable: $(271). Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense reserves at December 31, 2021, of $(554) are included in the balance sheet in the following line items: Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves: $1,538 and Subrogation recoverable: $(2,092).
(4) Ambac records as a component of its loss and loss adjustment expense reserves, estimated recoveries related to securitized loans in RMBS transactions that breached certain representations and warranties. Ambac has recorded gross estimated recoveries of $140 and $1,730 at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively.
See the Balance Sheet section of this Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations below for a discussion on the reasons for changes to Gross Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves during 2022.
See Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for a description of the cash flow and statistical methodologies used to develop loss reserves. The majority of our large loss reserves utilize the cash flow method of reserving. Various cash flow scenarios are developed to represent the range of possible outcomes and resultant future claim payments and timing. Scenarios and probabilities of each are adjusted regularly to reflect changes in status, outlook and our analysis and views. Significant judgment is used to develop the cash flow assumptions and related probabilities, and there can be no
certainty that the scenarios or probabilities will not deviate materially from ultimate outcomes.
•In some cases, such as RMBS and student loans, cash flow projections include the modeling of a securitization's cash flows to determine the resources available to pay debt service on our insured obligations. Key assumptions impacting RMBS cash flow models include borrower credit characteristics, projected home price appreciation, interest rates and mortgage loan modification activity. Key assumptions impacting student loan cash flow models include projected loan defaults, recoveries and interest rates.
•In other cases, such as many public finance exposures, we consider the issuer's overall ability and willingness to pay as it relates to the existing fiscal, economic, legal, restructuring and/or political framework relevant to a particular exposure or group of exposures. We then develop multiple scenarios where issuer debt service is paid, missed and/or haircut with claims paid then factor in any projected recovery amount (and potential variability of the recovery amount) and the timing thereof. There is no certainty our assumptions as to scenarios or probabilities will not be subject to material changes as developments occur.
•In estimating loss reserves, we may also incorporate scenarios which represent the potential outcome of remediation strategies. Remediation scenarios could include (i) a potential refinancing of the transaction by the issuer; (ii) the issuer’s ability to redeem outstanding securities at a discount, thereby increasing the structure’s ability to absorb future losses; and (iii) our ability to terminate, restructure or commute the policy in whole or in part. The remediation scenarios and the related probabilities of occurrence vary by policy depending on ongoing and expected discussions and negotiations with issuers and/or investors. In addition to commutation negotiations that are underway with various counterparties in various forms, our reserve estimates may also include scenarios which incorporate our ability and/or expectation to commute additional exposure with other counterparties.
Valuation of Certain Financial Instruments
The Fair Value Measurement Topic of the ASC requires financial instruments to be classified within a three-level fair value hierarchy. The fair value hierarchy, the financial instruments classified within each level, our valuation methods, inputs, assumptions and the review and validation procedures over quoted and modeled pricing are further detailed in Note 6. Fair Value Measurements to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
The level of judgment in estimating fair value is largely dependent on the amount of observable market information available to fair value a financial instrument, which is also determinative of where the financial instrument is classified in the fair value hierarchy. Level 3 instruments are valued using models which use one or more significant inputs or value drivers that are unobservable and therefore require significant judgment. Level 3 financial instruments which are material include certain
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invested assets, uncollateralized interest rate swaps and investments and loan receivables of consolidated VIEs. Model-derived valuations of Level 3 financial instruments incorporate estimates of the effects of Ambac's own credit risk and/or counterparty credit risk, which can be complex and judgmental. Furthermore, Level 3 investments and loan receivables of consolidated VIEs incorporate estimates of Ambac's financial guarantee cash flows, including future premiums and losses. Such cash flow estimates require judgments regarding prepayments of VIE debt, loss probabilities and loss severities, all of which are inherently uncertain.
All models and related assumptions are continuously re-evaluated by management and enhanced, as appropriate, based on improvements in information and modeling techniques. The re-evaluation process includes a quarterly meeting of senior Finance personnel to review and approve changes to models and key assumptions.
As a result of the significant judgment for the above-described instruments, the actual trade value of the financial instrument in the market, or exit value of the financial instrument owned by Ambac, may be significantly different from its recorded fair value.
Valuation of Deferred Tax Assets
Our provision for taxes is based on our income, statutory tax rates and tax planning opportunities available to us in the jurisdictions in which we operate. Tax laws are complex and subject to different interpretations by the taxpayer and respective governmental taxing authorities. Significant judgment is required in determining our tax expense and in evaluating our tax positions. We review our tax positions quarterly and adjust the balances as new information becomes available. Deferred tax assets arise because of temporary differences between the financial reporting and tax bases of assets and liabilities, as well as from net operating loss ("NOL"). More specifically, deferred tax assets represent a future tax benefit that results from losses recorded under GAAP in a current period which are only deductible for tax purposes in future periods and NOL carry forwards.
Valuation allowances are established to reduce deferred tax assets to an amount that “more likely than not” will be realized. Management considers all available evidence, both positive and negative, when determining whether to establish and/or maintain a valuation allowance against deferred tax assets, with significant weight given to evidence that can be objectively verified. Positive evidence includes reduced potential for material loss as a result of settling RMBS representation and warranty litigation and resolving exposure to Puerto Rico, Everspan's receipt of an 'A-'' Financial Strength Rating from AM Best, the launch of a specialty program property and casualty insurance business, AFG's acquisition of majority interests in MGA/U businesses and AAC's reduction of material amounts of debt. Negative evidence includes the potential for unrecognized future insurance tax losses; cumulative pre-tax losses, adjusted for nonrecurring one-time events, for the last three years; the legacy financial guarantee business remains in run-off; and material amounts of debt remain at AAC.
The level of deferred tax asset recognition is influenced by management’s assessment of future expected taxable income, which depends on the existence of sufficient taxable income within the carry forward periods available under the tax law. As a result of the above-described risks and uncertainties associated with future operating results, management believes it is more likely than not that the Company will not generate sufficient taxable income to recover part or all the U.S. federal deferred tax asset and therefore has a full valuation allowance. To the extent such risks and uncertainties are resolved, Ambac may have the ability to establish a history of making reliable estimates of future income which could ultimately result in a reduction to the deferred tax asset valuation allowance. See Note 17. Income Taxes to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information on the Company's deferred income taxes.
FINANCIAL GUARANTEES IN FORCE
($ in millions)
Financial guarantee products were sold in three principal markets: U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and international finance. The following table provides a breakdown of guaranteed net par outstanding by market at December 31, 2022 and 2021. Net par exposures within the U.S. public finance market include capital appreciation bonds which are reported at the par amount at the time of issuance of the insurance policy as opposed to the current accreted value of the bonds. Guaranteed net par outstanding includes the exposures of policies insuring variable interest entities (“VIEs”) consolidated in accordance with the Consolidation Topic of the ASC. Guaranteed net par outstanding excludes the exposures of policies that insure bonds which have been refunded or pre-refunded and for 2021 excludes exposure of the policy insuring the Sitka Senior Secured Notes as defined in Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
| December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Finance (1) (2) | $ | 10,547 | $ | 12,360 | ||
| Structured Finance | 3,612 | 4,904 | ||||
| International Finance | 8,454 | 10,756 | ||||
| Total net par outstanding | $ | 22,613 | $ | 28,020 |
(1) Includes $5,400 and $5,490 of Military Housing net par outstanding at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively.
(2) Includes $244 and $1,054 of Puerto Rico net par outstanding at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively.
Below we will discuss the significant exposures in our insured portfolio relating to each of the three markets. See Note 7. Financial Guarantees in Force to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for exposures by bond type.
U.S. Public Finance Insured Portfolio
AAC’s portfolio of U.S. public finance exposures totaled $10,547 in net par outstanding, representing 47% of Ambac’s net par outstanding as of December 31, 2022, and a 15% reduction from the amount outstanding at December 31, 2021.
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This reduction in exposure was due to the Puerto Rico restructuring transactions, other active de-riskings, scheduled paydowns, and early terminations (calls, refundings and pre-refundings). Ambac’s U.S. public finance portfolio consists of municipal bonds such as general obligation, revenue, and lease and tax-backed obligations of state and local government entities, and also includes several non-municipal types of bonds, such as financings with public and private elements, which generally finance infrastructure, housing and other public interests, the largest sector of which is U.S. military housing which accounts for approximately 51% of AAC's U.S. Public Finance Insured Portfolio.
Municipal Bonds
Municipal bonds are generally supported directly or indirectly by the issuer’s taxing authority or by public sector fees and assessments which may or may not be specifically pledged. Risk factors in these transactions derive from the municipal issuer, including its fiscal management, politics, and economic position, as well as its ability and willingness to continue to pay its debt service. Municipal bankruptcies and similar proceedings, while still relatively uncommon, have occurred, exposing Ambac to the risk of liquidity claims and ultimate losses if issuers cannot successfully adjust their liabilities without impairing creditors.
Non-Municipal Bonds
Public/private transactions are generally structured to achieve their targeted public interest objective without direct support from the public sector. Some examples of this type of financing include affordable housing, private education, and privatized military housing. Protections within these financings provided to Ambac usually include the strength of the financed asset’s essentiality and public purpose and may include financial covenants, collateral and control rights. Risk factors include financial underperformance, event risk and a shift in the asset’s mission or essentiality.
Military Housing Bonds
AAC's largest concentration of non-municipal bonds is U.S. military housing. Ambac insures $5,400 net par of privatized military housing debt. The debt was issued to finance the construction and/or renovation of housing units for military personnel and their families on domestic U.S. military bases. Debt service is not directly paid or guaranteed by the U.S. Government. Rather, the bonds are serviced from the cash flow generated in most cases by rental payments deposited by the military directly into lockbox accounts as part of each service personnel’s Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH). In typically small percentages, rental payments can also come from civilians, including retired service personnel and US Department of Defense contractors living on a particular base. Collateral for these transactions includes the BAH payments as well as an interest in the ground lease. Risk factors affecting these transactions include ongoing base essentiality, military deployments, the U.S. government’s commitment to fund the BAH, marketability/attractiveness of the on-base housing units versus off-base housing, construction completion, environmental remediation, natural disasters, excessive utility and other operating costs and housing management. Ambac's exposure to privatized military housing debt is a growing concentration given the long-dated maturity profile of the exposure relative to
other parts of Ambac's insured portfolio. As of December 31, 2022, privatized military housing represented approximately 24% of net par outstanding as compared to 19.6% as of December 31, 2021.
U.S. Structured Finance Portfolio
Ambac’s portfolio of U.S. structured finance exposures is $3,612 in net par outstanding, representing 16% of Ambac’s net par outstanding as of December 31, 2022, and a 26% reduction from the amount outstanding at December 31, 2021. This reduction in exposure was primarily related to (i) RMBS policies, which continued to prepay as well as incur claims, (ii) de-risking activity and (iii) scheduled paydowns.
Current insured exposures primarily include securitizations of mortgage loans, home equity loans and student loans, in each case where the majority of the underlying collateral risk is situated in the United States. At December 31, 2022, RMBS represented approximately 9% of net par outstanding.
Structured finance securitization exposures generally entail three forms of risk: (i) asset risk, which relates to the amount and quality of the underlying assets; (ii) structural risk, which relates to the extent to which the transaction’s legal structure and credit support provide protection from loss; and (iii) servicer risk, which is the risk that poor performance at the servicer or manager level contributes to a decline in cash flow available to the transaction. AAC seeks to mitigate and manage these risks through its risk management practices.
International Finance Insured Portfolio
Ambac’s portfolio of international finance insured exposures is $8,454 in net par outstanding, representing 37% of Ambac’s net par outstanding as of December 31, 2022, and a 21% reduction from the amount outstanding at December 31, 2021. This reduction in exposure was primarily the result of commutations and a strengthening of the US dollar versus the British pound and the Euro. Ambac’s international finance insured exposures include a wide array of obligations in the international markets, including infrastructure financings, utility obligations, whole business securitizations (e.g., securitizations of substantially all of the operating assets of a corporation) and sub-sovereign credits. At December 31, 2022, sub-sovereign and investor-owned and public utilities represented approximately 18% and 11% of net par outstanding, respectively. Ambac has no insured exposure related to emerging markets.
When underwriting transactions in the international markets, Ambac considered the specific risks related to the particular country and region that could impact the credit of the issuer. These risks include the legal and political environment, capital markets dynamics, foreign exchange issues and the degree of governmental support. Ambac continues to assess these risks through its ongoing risk management.
Ambac UK, which is regulated in the United Kingdom (“UK”), was AAC’s primary vehicle for directly issuing financial guarantee policies in the UK and the European Union with $8,194 net par outstanding at December 31, 2022. The portfolio of insured exposures underwritten by Ambac UK is financially supported exclusively by the assets of Ambac UK and no capital support arrangements are in place with any other Ambac affiliate.
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Ambac's international net par exposures are principally in the United Kingdom ($7,223); however, we also have exposures with credit risk based in various EU member states, including
Austria, France, Germany and Italy ($971). Ambac does not guarantee any sovereign bonds of the above EU countries.
Largest Insured Exposures:
The table below shows Ambac’s ten largest exposures, by repayment source, as a percentage of total financial guarantee net par outstanding at December 31, 2022 (in millions):
| Sector | Co. | Bond Kind | Country-Bond Type | AmbacRatings (1) | Ultimate Maturity Year | Net ParOutstanding | % of TotalNet ParOutstanding | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IF | AUK | Investor Owned Utility Gas - unsecured | UK-Utility | BBB+ | 2037 | $ | 805 | 3.6 | % | |||||||
| IF | AUK | Other Asset Securitizations | UK-Asset Securitizations | BBB | 2033 | 744 | 3.3 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | PFI - Accommodation | UK-Infrastructure | A- | 2040 | 723 | 3.2 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | PFI - Hospitals | UK-Infrastructure | A- | 2046 | 688 | 3.0 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | Investor Owned Utility Other - unsecured | UK-Utility | A- | 2035 | 598 | 2.6 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | Sub-Sovereign | Italy-Sub-Sovereign | BIG | 2035 | 591 | 2.6 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | Investor Owned Utility Electric - unsecured | UK-Utility | BBB+ | 2036 | 556 | 2.5 | % | ||||||||
| PF | AAC | US State Lease/Appropriation | US-Lease and Tax-backed Revenue | BBB- | 2036 | 489 | 2.2 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | PFI - Accommodation | UK-Infrastructure | BBB+ | 2038 | 472 | 2.1 | % | ||||||||
| PF | AAC | Military Housing | US-Housing Revenue | BBB- | 2052 | 450 | 2.0 | % | ||||||||
| Total | $ | 6,116 | 27.1 | % | ||||||||||||
| PF = Public Finance, SF = Structured Finance, IF = International FinanceAAC = Ambac Assurance, AUK = Ambac UK |
(1)Internal credit ratings are provided solely to indicate the underlying credit quality of guaranteed obligations based on the view of Ambac. In cases where Ambac has insured multiple tranches of an issue with varying internal ratings, or more than one obligation of an issuer with varying internal ratings, a weighted average rating is used. Ambac credit ratings are subject to revision at any time and do not constitute investment advice. BIG denotes credits deemed below investment grade.
Net par related to the top ten exposures reduced $1,209 from December 31, 2021. Exposures are impacted by commutations, changes in foreign exchange rates ($575 reduction during 2022), certain indexation rates linked to inflation measures in the United Kingdom (RPI) and Australia (CPI), and scheduled and unscheduled paydowns. As a result of recent increases in inflation, such indexation-linked exposures have increased at a faster pace than they have historically.
The concentration of net par amongst the top ten (as a percentage of net par outstanding) increased slightly to 27.1% at December 31, 2022, from 26.2% at December 31, 2021. Excluding the top ten exposures, the remaining insured portfolio of financial guarantees has an average net par outstanding of $30 per single risk, with insured exposures ranging up to $386 and a median net par outstanding of $5.
Given that Ambac has not written any new insurance policies since 2008, the risk exists that the insured portfolio becomes increasingly concentrated to large and/or below investment grade exposures.
Puerto Rico
Our exposure to Puerto Rico (the "Commonwealth") consisted of several different issuing entities (all below investment grade and whereby AAC has paid substantial claims since 2016) that have been part of the debt restructuring process under the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (“PROMESA”), a U.S. federal law enacted in 2016 that, among other things, established a financial oversight board (the “FOMB”) and provided for a process for restructuring debt that
roughly follows U.S. Bankruptcy laws. As of December 6, 2022, all AAC-insured Puerto Rico obligations have been restructured under PROMESA via court-approved plans of adjustment or qualifying modifications. The following table outlines Ambac's insured net par outstanding to each Commonwealth of Puerto Rico issuer.
| Net Par Outstanding ($ in millions) | December 31, | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2021 | ||||||
| PR Highways and Transportation Authority (1998 Resolution - Senior Lien Transportation Revenue) (1) | $ | 178 | $ | 394 | |||
| PR Sales Tax Financing Corporation - Senior Sales Tax Revenue (COFINA) | 66 | 73 | |||||
| PR Highways and Transportation Authority (1968 Resolution - Highway Revenue) | — | 4 | |||||
| PR Infrastructure Financing Authority (Special Tax Revenue) | — | 403 | |||||
| PR Convention Center District Authority (Hotel Occupancy Tax | — | 86 | |||||
| Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds | — | 11 | |||||
| PR Public Buildings Authority - Guaranteed by the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico | — | 83 | |||||
| Total Net Exposure to The Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and Related Entities | $ | 244 | $ | 1,054 | |||
| Total Net P&I Exposure to The Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and Related Entities | $ | 884 | $ | 2,423 |
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(1) As of February 16, 2023, net par of $136 has been reduced through acceleration and redemption payments consistent with AAC's plan to further de-risk its exposure to Puerto Rico.
Commonwealth Plan of Adjustment (Title III Case)
On January 18, 2022, Judge Laura Taylor Swain, U.S. District Court for the District of Puerto Rico, entered an order confirming the Eighth Amended Title III Joint Plan of Adjustment of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, et al. ("Eighth Amended POA") together with the Qualifying Modifications for PRIFA and CCDA ("PRIFA QM" and "CCDA QM", respectively). On March 15, 2022, the Eighth Amended POA, the PRIFA QM and CCDA QM became effective, restructuring approximately $33,000 of debt across various Commonwealth instrumentalities, including obligations insured by AAC, and approximately $50,000 in pension obligations. The Eighth Amended POA, among other things, incorporated the settlement reflected in the PRIFA Related Plan Support Agreement (“PRIFA PSA”) that was signed on July 27, 2021, by the FOMB, as representative of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, AAC, FGIC, and other holders of bonds issued by PRIFA. The Eighth Amended POA also incorporated the settlements reflected in the PRHTA/CCDA Related Plan Support Agreement (“PRHTA/CCDA PSA”) dated May 5, 2021, and the Amended and Restated Plan Support Agreement with the FOMB, as representative of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, PBA, and the Employee Retirement System of the Government of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico ("Amended and Restated GO / PBA PSA") dated as of July 12, 2021.
AAC-Insured Bond Effective Date Transactions
GO / PBA
On the Eight Amended POA effective date, AAC-insured GO and PBA bondholders who elected commutation of their insurance received: i) their respective shares of GO/PBA plan consideration available under the Eighth Amended POA, and ii) cash from Ambac. Ambac’s obligations to the bondholders under the Ambac insurance policies who elected this option were deemed to be fully satisfied. On the plan effective date, about 50% and 27% of the outstanding par of the Ambac-insured GO and PBA bonds, respectively, totaling about $28 of insured par was commuted. The AAC-insured GO and PBA bondholders who failed to elect commutation received payment, in cash, of the outstanding principal amount of the bondholders’ insured bonds plus the accrued and unpaid interest thereon as of the effective date (the “Ambac Acceleration Price.”). Pursuant to this option, bondholders received the Ambac Acceleration Price in full and final discharge of Ambac’s obligations under the Ambac insurance policies. As of the effective date, all the remaining outstanding AAC-insured GO and PBA bonds were satisfied and eliminated via commutation or acceleration.
PRIFA / CCDA
On the Eight Amended POA effective date, AAC-insured PRIFA and CCDA bondholders who elected commutation of their insurance received: 1) their respective shares of PRIFA or CCDA plan consideration available under the Eighth Amended POA and the PRIFA QM, or CCDA QM, as applicable, and 2) cash from Ambac. Ambac’s obligations to the bondholders under the Ambac insurance policies who elected this option were deemed to be fully satisfied. The AAC-insured PRIFA and
CCDA bondholders who failed to elect commutation had their bondholders’ respective shares of consideration available under the Commonwealth Plan and the PRIFA QM, or CCDA QM, as applicable, deposited into a trust. On the plan effective date, about 39% and 19% of the outstanding par of the AAC-insured PRIFA and CCDA bonds, respectively, totaling about $172 of insured par was commuted with the remainder totaling about $317 of insured par deposited into the trusts. During the second quarter of 2022, the remainder of those PRIFA and CCDA bonds belonging to bondholders who elected not to commute their AAC Insurance Policies and were deposited into trusts together with such policies were all accelerated, satisfying and eliminating all of the AAC-insured PRIFA and CCDA bonds.
PRHTA Plan of Adjustment (Title III Case)
On October 12, 2022, Judge Swain entered an order confirming the Fifth Amended Title III Plan of Adjustment of The Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (" PRHTA POA"). On December 6, 2022, the PRHTA POA became effective, restructuring approximately $6,400 of PRHTA claims, including obligations insured by AAC. The PRHTA POA, among other things incorporated the settlement reflected in the PRHTA/CCDA PSA.
PRHTA / CCDA PSA
AAC signed a joinder to the PRHTA/CCDA PSA on July 15, 2021. The PRHTA/CCDA PSA, originally executed on May 5, 2021, provided for certain consideration for holders of bonds issued by certain Commonwealth instrumentalities, PRHTA and CCDA on account of their claims against the Commonwealth arising from such bonds ("Clawback" claims). Under the PRHTA/ CCDA PSA, PRHTA creditors shared $389 of cash proceeds that was paid on July 8, 2022, once the PRHTA distribution condition was met pursuant to the Eighth Amended POA (the “Interim Distribution”). In addition, PRHTA creditors received an approximately 69% share of the Clawback contingent value instrument ("CVI"), subject to a lifetime nominal cap of about $3,698, which was also paid as part of the Interim Distribution. The PRHTA Clawback CVI is subject to a PRHTA-specific waterfall: holders of PRHTA ’68 bonds will receive the first dollars of Clawback CVI, followed by holders of PRHTA ’98 bonds PRHTA bondholders also received new PRHTA bonds with a face amount of $1,245. Of the $1,245 in new bonds, approximately $646.4 was allocated to holders of PRHTA '68 bonds and approximately $598.6 was allocated to holders of PRHTA '98 bonds. In addition, AAC and other PRHTA creditors received restriction fees and consummation costs that were payable at the effective date of the PRHTA POA.
PRHTA Interim Distribution
On July 8, 2022, following satisfaction of the PRHTA distribution condition, AAC received its share of the Interim Distribution of cash and Clawback CVI related to the Ambac insured PRHTA '68 and '98 bonds in satisfaction of the Clawback claims against the Commonwealth under the Eighth Amended POA. The Interim Distribution to AAC totaled approximately $19 of cash and $295 maximum notional value of Clawback CVI, which had been recorded as cash and fixed maturity securities - trading (at fair value), respectively, on the Consolidated Balance Sheet. On the PRHTA POA effective date, a portion of the cash and Clawback CVI were: (i)
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distributed to PRHTA '98 commuting bondholders together with the new PRHTA bonds in connection with the PRHTA POA and a commutation payment from AAC in full satisfaction of and in full and final discharge of Ambac’s obligations under the Ambac insurance policies or (ii) deposited into a trust, as described below, together with the new PRHTA bonds or in connection with the PRHTA POA.
PRHTA Effective Date Transactions
On the PRHTA effective date, 1) all remaining outstanding AAC-insured PRHTA '68 bonds were fully satisfied and eliminated via acceleration, and 2), pursuant to bondholder election, AAC-insured PRHTA '98 bondholders who elected commutation of their insurance received (i) their share of PRHTA plan consideration under the PRHTA POA and the interim distribution under the Eighth Amended POA, and (ii) cash from AAC. AAC’s obligations to the bondholders under the Ambac insurance policies who elected this option were deemed to be fully satisfied and eliminated. The AAC-insured PRHTA '98 bondholders who failed to elect commutation had their bondholders’ share of plan consideration under the PRHTA POA and the interim distribution under the Eighth Amended POA deposited into a trust. On the plan effective date, about 21% of the outstanding par of the AAC-insured PRHTA 98 bonds, totaling about $83 of net par outstanding was commuted with the remainder totaling about $312 of net par outstanding being deposited into the trusts. Following the effective date, subsequent redemptions of trust units via the pass through of plan consideration proceeds and AAC acceleration payments further reduced AAC-insured PRHTA '98 net par exposure to $178 as of December 31, 2022. Since year-end, AAC-insured PRHTA exposure has been further reduced through redemptions of trusts units via the pass through of plan consideration proceeds, interest on plan consideration, and AAC acceleration payments.
Additional Insured Portfolio Information
Average Life of Insured Portfolio
Ambac estimates that the average life of its guarantees on par in force at December 31, 2022, is approximately 10 years. The average life is determined by applying a weighted average calculation, using the remaining years to expected maturity of each guaranteed bond, and weighting them on the basis of the remaining net par guaranteed. Except for RMBS policies, no assumptions are made for non-contractual reductions, refundings or terminations of insured issues. RMBS policies incorporate assumptions on expected prepayments over the remaining life of the insured obligation.
The following table depicts amortization of existing guaranteed net par outstanding:
| Net Par Outstanding Amortization (1)($ in millions) | Estimated Net Amortization | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $ | 1,251 | |
| 2024 | 1,505 | ||
| 2025 | 1,252 | ||
| 2026 | 1,208 | ||
| 2027 | 1,014 | ||
| 2023 - 2027 | $ | 6,230 | |
| 2028 - 2032 | 5,172 | ||
| 2033 - 2037 | 6,597 | ||
| 2038 - 2042 | 2,040 | ||
| After 2042 | 2,574 | ||
| Total | $ | 22,613 |
(1) Depicts amortization of existing guaranteed portfolio, assuming no advance refundings, as of December 31, 2022. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations.
Exposure Currency
The table below shows the distribution by currency of Ambac's existing guaranteed net par outstanding as of December 31, 2022:
| Currency ($ in millions) | Net Par Amount Outstanding in Base Currency | Net ParAmountOutstandingin U.S.Dollars | Percentage of Net Par Amount Outstanding | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Dollars | $ | 14,350 | $ | 14,350 | 63 | % | ||||
| British Pounds | £ | 5,842 | 7,048 | 31 | % | |||||
| Euros | € | 894 | 956 | 4 | % | |||||
| Australian Dollars | A$ | 380 | 259 | 1 | % | |||||
| Total | $ | 22,613 | 100 | % |
See Note 7. Financial Guarantees in Force to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, for geographic detail by location of risk as of December 31, 2022.
Ratings Distribution
The following charts provide a rating distribution of existing net par outstanding based upon internal Ambac credit ratings at December 31, 2022 and 2021, and a distribution of Ambac's below investment grade ("BIG") net par exposures at December 31, 2022 and 2021. BIG is defined as those exposures with an internal credit rating below BBB-:
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Note: AAA is less than 1% in both periods.
(1) Internal credit ratings are provided solely to indicate the underlying credit quality of guaranteed obligations based on the view of Ambac. In cases where Ambac has insured multiple tranches of an issue with varying internal ratings, or more than one obligation of an issuer with varying internal ratings, a weighted average rating is used. Ambac credit ratings are subject to revision at any time and do not constitute investment advice.
Summary of Below Investment Grade Exposure:
| Bond Type | Net Par Outstanding | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | ||||
| Public Finance: | ||||||
| Military Housing | $ | 366 | $ | 370 | ||
| Puerto Rico | 244 | 1,054 | ||||
| Other | 213 | 317 | ||||
| Total Public Finance | 823 | 1,741 | ||||
| Structured Finance: | ||||||
| RMBS | 1,841 | 2,170 | ||||
| Student loans | 275 | 302 | ||||
| Total Structured Finance | 2,117 | 2,472 | ||||
| International Finance: | ||||||
| Sovereign/sub-sovereign | 701 | 774 | ||||
| Transportation | 310 | 389 | ||||
| Other | 2 | 62 | ||||
| Total International Finance | 1,013 | 1,225 | ||||
| Total | $ | 3,953 | $ | 5,438 |
The net decline in below investment grade exposures is primarily due to de-risking activities, including the Puerto Rico restructuring, and foreign exchange rates of $71.
Below investment grade exposures could increase as a relative proportion of the guarantee portfolio given that stressed borrowers generally have less ability to prepay or refinance their debt. Accordingly, due to these and other factors, it is not unreasonable to expect the proportion of below investment grade exposure in the guarantee portfolio to continue to increase in the future.
Ceded Reinsurance
AAC has reinsurance in place pursuant to surplus share treaties and facultative agreements. As a primary financial guarantor, AAC is required to honor its obligations to its policyholders whether or not its reinsurers perform their obligations under these reinsurance agreements. AAC's reinsurers all have applicable ratings of A of better. As of December 31, 2022, the aggregate amount of insured par ceded by AAC to reinsurers under reinsurance agreements was $4,938, with the largest reinsurer accounting for $2,187 or 7.9% of gross par outstanding at December 31, 2022.
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The following table shows the distribution, by bond type, of AAC’s ceded guaranteed portfolio at December 31, 2022:
| Bond Type | Ceded Par AmountOutstanding | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | ||||
| Public Finance: | ||||||
| General obligation | $ | 1,265 | $ | 1,458 | ||
| Lease and tax-backed revenue | 1,169 | 1,618 | ||||
| Housing revenue | 910 | 922 | ||||
| Transportation revenue | 699 | 749 | ||||
| Other | 555 | 612 | ||||
| Total Public Finance | 4,598 | 5,359 | ||||
| Structured Finance: | ||||||
| Investor-owned utilities | 174 | 222 | ||||
| Structured insurance | — | 313 | ||||
| Other | 136 | 185 | ||||
| Total Structured Finance | 310 | 720 | ||||
| Total Domestic | 4,908 | 6,079 | ||||
| International Finance: | ||||||
| Total International Finance | 30 | 23 | ||||
| Total | $ | 4,938 | $ | 6,102 | ||
| Percentage of Gross Par Ceded | 18 | % | 18 | % |
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS ($ in millions)
The following discussion should be read along with the financial statements included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, as well as Part II, "Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, which provides additional information on comparisons of years 2021 and 2020.
Net income attributable to common stockholders for the year ended December 31, 2022, was $522 compared to a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $17 for the year ended December 31, 2021. The net income variance was primarily driven by: (i) a higher benefit through loss and loss adjustment expenses, (ii) a litigation recovery, (iii) higher gains on derivative contracts, (iv) higher net gains on extinguishment of debt, and (v) lower interest expense, partially offset by lower returns from the investment portfolio.
A summary of our financial results is shown below:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues: | ||||||||||
| Net premiums earned | $ | 56 | $ | 47 | $ | 54 | ||||
| Commission income | 31 | 26 | — | |||||||
| Program fees | 3 | — | — | |||||||
| Net investment income | 17 | 139 | 122 | |||||||
| Net investment gains (losses), including impairments | 31 | 7 | 22 | |||||||
| Net gains (losses) on derivative contracts | 129 | 22 | (50) | |||||||
| Net realized gains on extinguishment of debt | 81 | 33 | — | |||||||
| Income (loss) on variable interest entities | 21 | 7 | 5 | |||||||
| Other income | 10 | 1 | 3 | |||||||
| Litigation recoveries | 126 | — | — | |||||||
| Expenses: | ||||||||||
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses (benefit) | (396) | (88) | 225 | |||||||
| Amortization of deferred acquisition costs, net | 3 | 1 | — | |||||||
| Commission expense | 18 | 15 | — | |||||||
| General and administrative expenses | 141 | 111 | 92 | |||||||
| Intangible amortization | 47 | 55 | 57 | |||||||
| Interest expense | 168 | 187 | 222 | |||||||
| Provision (benefit) for income taxes | 2 | 18 | (3) | |||||||
| Net income (loss) | 522 | (16) | (437) | |||||||
| Less: net (gain) loss attributable to noncontrolling interest | (1) | (1) | — | |||||||
| Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders | $ | 522 | $ | (17) | $ | (437) |
Ambac's results for the year ended December 31, 2022 were significantly impacted by the following:
•As of December 6, 2022, all AAC-insured Puerto Rico obligations were restructured under PROMESA via court-approved plans of adjustment or qualifying modifications. As a result of these successful restructurings, Ambac's 2022 consolidated financial results included a net benefit of $180 in losses and gains of $37 on the consolidation of newly established variable interest entities; partially offset by net losses of $23 from sales and changes to the fair value of securities received by AAC in the restructurings, losses of $17 on the VIEs after initial consolidation and accelerated amortization of the insurance intangible asset.
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•On October 6, 2022, AAC entered into a Settlement Agreement and Release with Bank of America Corporation and certain affiliates thereof (the "BOA Parties") whereby the parties settled all RMBS litigation brought by AAC against the BOA Parties and AAC received $1,840. On December 29, 2022, AAC entered into a Settlement Agreement and Release with Nomura Credit & Capital, Inc. whereby the parties settled all RMBS litigation brought by AAC against Nomura and AAC received $140 on January 3, 2023. AAC used the proceeds from these settlements (net of reinsurance) plus approximately $6 of cash on hand to fully redeem all debt obligations secured by the net proceeds of litigations brought by AAC against RMBS sponsors. The settlements with the BOA Parties and Nomura brought to closure all of AAC's legacy litigation against RMBS sponsors. See Note 1. Background and Business Description in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further information. During 2022, AAC recorded a gain of $123 million in loss and loss adjustment expenses and litigation recoveries of $126, offset by net realized losses on extinguishment of debt of $53 related to the above-mentioned settlement agreements.
The following paragraphs describe the consolidated results of operations of Ambac and its subsidiaries for 2022 and 2021.
Gross Premiums Written. Gross premiums written increased $125 for the year ended December 31, 2022, compared to the same periods in the prior year, as shown by segment below.
| Year Ended December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legacy Financial Guaranty Insurance | $ | (20) | $ | (11) | $ | (1) | ||||
| Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance | 146 | 13 | — | |||||||
| Total | $ | 127 | $ | 2 | $ | (1) |
Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance gross written premiums were negative from de-riskings, pre-payments and other changes in expected cash flows of insured transactions.
See gross premiums written by line of business for the Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance business located in the Business section of Part I, Item 1 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Net Premiums Earned. Net premiums earned for the year ended December 31, 2022 increased by $9 or 20% as compared to net premiums earned for the year ended December 31, 2021, as shown below.
| Year Ended December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legacy Financial Guaranty Insurance | $ | 42 | $ | 46 | $ | 54 | ||||
| Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance | 14 | 1 | — | |||||||
| Total | 56 | 47 | 54 |
The reduction in Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment net premiums earned was primarily due to de-risking activities, run-off of the insured portfolio, and the impact from the strengthening of the US dollar relative to the British Pound Sterling. The increase in Specialty Property & Casualty
Insurance net premiums earned was driven by the growth in net premiums written.
Commission Income. Commission income was $31 compared to $26, for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021. Commissions include both base and profit sharing commissions of the Insurance Distribution segment. The increase was driven by greater premiums placed by Xchange Benefits as well as premiums placed by All Trans and Capacity Marine since their acquisition in November 2022. Commission expense will largely track changes in gross commission. For the year ended December 31, 2022 commissions expenses were $18 compared to $15 for the year ended December 31, 2021, representing approximately 58% of commission income in both periods.
Program Fees. Program fee revenues were $3 compared to less than $1 for the years December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. Program fee revenues represent the recognition of ceding commissions in excess of direct acquisition costs received from reinsurers and minimum fees received from MGA/Us until the related program reaches a certain level of premium. Program fees are typically charged as a percentage of premiums ceded to reinsurers as a component of total ceding commissions.
Net Investment Income. Net investment income primarily consists of interest and net discount accretion on fixed maturity securities classified as available-for-sale, interest and changes in fair value of fixed maturity securities classified as trading, and net gains (losses) on pooled investment funds which include changes in fair value of the funds' net assets. Fixed maturity securities include investments in Ambac-insured securities that are made opportunistically based on their risk/reward and asset-liability management characteristics. Investments in pooled investment funds and certain other investments are either classified as trading securities with changes in fair value recognized in earnings or are reported under the equity method. These funds and other investments are reported in Other investments on the Consolidated Balance Sheets. For further information about investment funds held, refer to Note 5. Investments to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Net investment income for the periods presented were driven by the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment, other segments' results were not significant.
Net investment income from Ambac-insured securities, available-for-sale securities other than Ambac-insured and Other investments is summarized in the table below:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Securities available-for-sale: Ambac-insured (including secured notes) | $ | 24 | $ | 45 | $ | 62 | ||||
| Securities available-for-sale and short-term other than Ambac-insured | 42 | 29 | 41 | |||||||
| Other investments (includes trading securities) | (49) | 66 | 19 | |||||||
| Net investment income | $ | 17 | $ | 139 | $ | 122 |
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Net investment income decreased $123 for the year ended December 31, 2022, compared to 2021. As described further below, the variance was primarily driven by 2022 fair value losses within fund investments and on fixed maturity investments classified as trading, and the impact of the LSNI Secured Note redemption in July 2021.
•Other investments results decreased $115 in 2022, compared to the prior year, including losses of $23 on securities received in the Puerto Rico restructurings which are classified as trading. Pooled fund investments produced a net loss of $26 in 2022, a decrease of $92 compared to 2021. The decrease was driven by net losses in most fund categories compared to generally strong performance in 2021, with the largest declines being in hedge funds, equities, high-yield and leveraged loan funds and real estate. Investments in pooled funds may be volatile, but are generally expected to produce higher returns than traditional fixed maturity investments.
•Investment income from Ambac-insured securities decreased $21 in 2022, compared to 2021, due primarily to lower levels of secured note holdings, the impact of the March 15, 2022 and December 6, 2022 Puerto Rico restructurings and continued runoff of AAC-insured RMBS.
•Net investment income from available-for-sales securities other than Ambac-insured securities increased $13 in 2022, compared to the prior year, due to higher portfolio yields.
Net Investment Gains (Losses), including Impairments. The following table provides a breakdown of net investment gains, for the periods presented:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net realized gains on securities sold or called | $ | 18 | $ | 11 | $ | 26 | ||||
| Net foreign exchange gains (losses) | 14 | (5) | (4) | |||||||
| Credit impairment | — | — | — | |||||||
| Intent / requirement to sell impairments | — | — | — | |||||||
| Total net investment gains, including impairments | $ | 32 | $ | 7 | $ | 22 |
Net investment gains on securities sold or called during the year ended December 31, 2022, included a recovery of $9 from a class-action settlement relating to certain RMBS securities previously held in the investment portfolio, $4 from the distribution of residual assets of a legacy financial guarantee student loan restructuring vehicle and $5 from the mandatory redemption of Sitka Senior Secured Notes over their amortized cost value. Realized gains in 2021 included $4 on the sale of AFG's equity interest in the Corolla Trust in connection with the Corolla Note Exchange (as such terms are defined in Note 1. Background and Business Information to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Annual Report). Other net realized gains on securities sold or called in 2022 and 2021 are primarily from sales in connection with routine portfolio management.
Credit impairments are recorded as an allowance for credit losses with changes in the allowance recorded through earnings.
Any non-credit related impairment amounts on the securities are recorded in other comprehensive income. If management either: (i) has the intent to sell its investment in a debt security or (ii) determines that the Company is more likely than not will be required to sell the debt security before its anticipated recovery, then the amortized cost of the security is written-down to fair value with a corresponding impairment charge recognized in earnings.
Net Gains (Losses) on Derivative Contracts. Net gains (losses) on derivative contracts are primarily from the Company's interest rate derivatives portfolio, which is positioned to benefit from rising rates as a partial economic hedge against interest rate exposure in the financial guarantee insurance and investment portfolios. Net gains (losses) on interest rate derivatives generally reflect mark-to-market gains (losses) in the portfolio caused by increases (declines) in forward interest rates during the periods, the carrying cost of the portfolio, and the impact of counterparty credit adjustments as discussed below. Results from other non-VIE derivatives were not significant to the periods presented.
Net gains on interest rate derivatives for the year ended December 31, 2022, were $128, compared to a net losses of $22 for the year ended December 31, 2021. The net gain for the year ended December 31, 2022, reflects changes in fair value from increases in forward interest rates and lower counterparty credit adjustments on certain derivative assets, partially offset by portfolio carrying costs. The improved results for the year ended December 31, 2022, resulted from significant interest rate increases combined with favorable portfolio positioning and the impact of credit spreads in derivative assets as described further below.
Counterparty credit adjustments are generally applicable for uncollateralized derivative assets that may not be offset by derivative liabilities under a master netting agreement. In periods when credit spreads are stable, counterparty credit adjustments will generally have a proportionate offsetting impact to gains or losses on derivative assets, relative to fully collateralized assets. In addition to the impact of interest rates on the underlying derivative asset values, the changes in counterparty credit adjustments are driven by movement of credit spreads. Generally, narrowing (widening) of credit spreads will increase (decrease) derivative gains relative to a period of stable credit spreads. Inclusion of counterparty credit adjustments in the valuation of interest rate derivatives resulted in gains (losses) within Net gains (losses) on derivative contracts of $8 and $5 for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. The lower counterparty credit adjustments for both periods reflected lower underlying asset values with the further impact of credit spread widening in 2022 and narrowing in 2021.
Net Realized Gains on Extinguishment of Debt. Net realized gains on extinguishment of debt was $81 for year ended December 31, 2022. Gains were recognized due to repurchases of surplus notes below their carrying values, partially offset with losses recognized on the redemption of the Sitka AAC Note (as defined in Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K) above its carrying value.
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AAC repurchased $266 million current par of surplus notes from third party holders between the second and fourth quarters of 2022. Net realized gains on extinguishment of debt was $33 for the year ended December 31, 2021, resulting from the 2021 exchanges of junior surplus notes below their carrying values. Refer to Note 1. Background and Business Description in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further discussion of the 2021 Surplus Notes Exchanges. Subject to internal and regulatory guidelines, market conditions and other constraints, Ambac may continue to opportunistically purchase surplus notes and may consider opportunities to exchange securities issued by it from time to time for other securities issued by it.
Income (Loss) on Variable Interest Entities. Included within Income (loss) on variable interest entities are income statement amounts relating to FG-VIEs consolidated under the Consolidation Topic of the ASC as a result of Ambac's variable interest arising from financial guarantees written by Ambac's subsidiaries, including gains or losses attributable to consolidating or deconsolidating FG-VIEs during the periods reported. Generally, the Company’s consolidated VIEs are entities for which Ambac has provided financial guarantees on all of or a portion of its assets or liabilities. In consolidation, assets and liabilities of the FG-VIEs are initially reported at fair value and the related insurance assets and liabilities are eliminated. However, the amount of FG-VIE net assets (liabilities) that remain in consolidation generally result from the net positive (negative) projected cash flows from (to) the VIEs which are attributable to Ambac’s insurance subsidiaries in the form of financial guarantee insurance premiums, fees and losses. In the case of VIEs with net negative projected cash flows, the net liability is generally to be funded by Ambac’s insurance subsidiaries through insurance claim payments. Differences between the net carrying value of the insurance accounts under the Financial Services—Insurance Topic of the ASC and the carrying value of the consolidated FG-VIE’s net assets or liabilities are recorded through income at the time of consolidation. Additionally, terminations or other changes to Ambac's financial guarantee insurance policies that impact projected cash flows between a consolidated FG-VIE and Ambac could result in gains or losses, even if such policy changes do not result in deconsolidation of the FG-VIE.
Income (loss) on variable interest entities was $21 and $7 for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. Results for the year ended December 31, 2022, related primarily to three VIE trusts created in connection with the Puerto Rico restructurings in 2022. The year ended December 31, 2022, included the initial $37 gain upon consolidation, losses of $9 from changes to fair value of these VIEs' assets, and losses of $7 from these VIEs driven by interest costs. Results for the year ended December 31, 2021, were due primarily to gains on higher valuation of net assets of VIEs, together with realized gains of $2 on sales of assets from the COFINA Trust. Refer to Note 12. Variable Interest Entities to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further information on the accounting for VIEs.
Litigation Recoveries. In connection with the settlement agreement with Bank of America Corporation and certain affiliates, the BOA Settlement Payment included recoveries from litigations for alleged breaches of contractual obligations
and fraud by the BOA Parties. Management allocated the BOA Settlement Payment to each of the litigations based on previously developed valuations of each individual litigation. The portion of the BOA Settlement Payment allocated to fraud litigation recoveries has been recorded as a litigation recovery in the Statement of Comprehensive Income (Loss).
Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses (Benefit). Losses and loss adjustment expenses include the financial guarantee and specialty property and casualty businesses.
Loss and loss adjustment expenses decreased $308 for the year ended December 31, 2022, compared to the prior year. Legacy financial guarantee loss and loss adjustment expenses (benefit) were $(406) and $(89) for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance loss and loss adjustment expenses were $9 and $— for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively
LFG Losses and loss expenses (benefit) for 2022, were driven by favorable RMBS development due to the impact of the settlement agreements with Bank of America Corporation and certain affiliates thereof and Nomura Credit and Capital, Inc.of $123 and the positive impact of discount rates, and favorable loss development in domestic public finance (primarily due to the Puerto Rico restructurings of $180).
LFG Losses and loss expenses for 2021 were largely driven by favorable loss development in domestic public finance, primarily related to Puerto Rico, and structured finance, primarily related to improved credit in RMBS, partially offset by the negative impact of discount rates, and loss expenses incurred.
General and Administrative Expenses ("G&A"). The following table provides a summary of G&A expenses for the periods presented:
| ($ in millions) Year Ended December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compensation | $ | 66 | $ | 62 | $ | 51 | ||||
| Non-compensation | 75 | 49 | 41 | |||||||
| Total | 141 | 111 | 92 |
G&A expenses for the year ended December 31, 2022 are $141, an increase of $30 from G&A expenses for the year ended December 31, 2021. The increase was primarily due to the following:
•Higher compensation costs primarily due to a net increase in staffing from additions in the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution segments, partially offset by reductions in staffing in the Legacy Financial Guaranty segment, and the impact of performance factor adjustments on incentive compensation expense.
•Higher non-compensation costs primarily related to Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment defensive litigation expenses of $26 and Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment costs associated with growth of the business. These items were partially offset by a reduction in advisory fees associated with Legacy Financial
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Guarantee Insurance stemming from the 2021 secured note refinancing.
Intangible Amortization. Insurance intangible amortization was $44 and $52 for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. The decrease in amortization for the year ended December 31, 2022, compared to 2021, is primarily due to run-off of the insured portfolio and de-risking activity. Other intangible amortization was $3 and $3 for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021 relating to the acquisitions within the Insurance Distribution segment.
Interest Expense. Interest expense includes accrued interest on the LSNI Ambac Note (as defined in Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K), Sitka AAC Note, Tier 2 Notes, surplus notes and other debt obligations. Additionally, interest expense includes discount accretion when the debt instrument carrying value is at a discount to par. The following table provides details by type of obligation for the periods presented:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surplus Notes (1) | $ | 78 | $ | 77 | $ | 85 | ||||
| LSNI Ambac Note | — | 50 | 107 | |||||||
| Sitka AAC Note | 63 | 32 | — | |||||||
| Tier 2 Notes | 26 | 27 | 28 | |||||||
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Total interest expense | $ | 168 | $ | 187 | $ | 222 |
(1)Includes interest on Junior Surplus Notes that were acquired and retired in 2021.
The decrease in interest expense for the year ended December 31, 2022, compared to the year ended December 31, 2021, reflects the impact of the 2021 refinancing and 2022 redemption of secured notes as described further under "Secured Note Refinancing" and "Redemption of Notes" in Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. These transactions resulted in lower debt outstanding and a lower coupon interest rate on the Sitka AAC Note relative to the LSNI Ambac Note. Interest expense for 2022 also declined as a result of purchases of surplus notes throughout the year. These benefits were partially offset by the effects of interest compounding on surplus notes and the Tier 2 Notes.
Surplus note principal and interest payments require the approval of OCI. In May 2022, OCI declined the request of AAC to pay the principal amount of the surplus notes, plus all accrued and unpaid interest thereon, on the then next scheduled payment date of June 7, 2022. As a result, the scheduled payment date for interest, and the scheduled maturity date for payment of principal of the surplus notes, was extended until OCI grants approval to make the payment. Interest will accrue, compounded on each anniversary of the original scheduled payment date or scheduled maturity date, on any unpaid principal or interest through the actual date of payment, at 5.1% per annum. Holders of surplus notes will have no rights to enforce the payment of the principal of, or interest on, surplus notes in the absence of OCI approval to pay such amount. The interest on the outstanding surplus notes were accrued for and AAC is accruing interest on the interest amounts following each
scheduled payment date. Total accrued and unpaid interest for surplus notes outstanding to third parties was $427 at December 31, 2022. Since the issuance of the surplus notes in 2010, OCI has declined to approve regular payments of interest on surplus notes, although the OCI has permitted two exceptional payments.
Provision for Income Taxes. The provision for income taxes for the year ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, was a expense of $2 and $18, respectively. Income taxes for the year ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, includes provisions for income tax due in respect of Ambac UK of $3 and $16, respectively.
At December 31, 2022, the Company had approximately $3,454 of U.S. Federal net ordinary operating loss carryforwards, including approximately $1,630 at AFG and $1,824 at AAC.
Results of Operations by Segment
Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance
| Year Ended December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues: | |||||||
| Net premiums earned | $ | 42 | $ | 46 | |||
| Net investment income | 12 | 138 | |||||
| Net investment gains (losses), including impairments | 32 | 3 | |||||
| Net gains (losses) on derivative contracts | 128 | 22 | |||||
| Net realized gains on extinguishment of debt | 81 | 33 | |||||
| Other income | 30 | 8 | |||||
| Litigation recoveries | 126 | — | |||||
| Total | 451 | 250 | |||||
| Expenses: | |||||||
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses (benefit) | (406) | (89) | |||||
| General and administrative expenses | 102 | 77 | |||||
| Total | (303) | (12) | |||||
| Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (1) | 754 | 262 | |||||
| Interest expense | 168 | 187 | |||||
| Depreciation | 2 | 2 | |||||
| Intangible amortization | 44 | 52 | |||||
| Pretax income (loss) | $ | 540 | $ | 20 | |||
| Stockholders equity (2) | $ | 826 | $ | 684 |
(1)Abbreviated as "EBITDA" in future references
(2)Represents the share of Ambac stockholders equity for each subsidiary within the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment, including intercompany eliminations.
The Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment is in active runoff. This will generally result in lower premium earned, investment income, operating expenses and intangible amortization. The variability in the financial results are primarily driven by changes in loss and loss adjustment expenses resulting from, amongst other items, litigation settlements, credit developments and de-risking transactions. Additionally, the segment results are impacted by changes in interest rates as they impact net gains on derivative contracts and
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interest expense on the floating rate Sitka AAC Note (prior to its redemption in 2022). Key variances not discussed above in the Consolidated Results section are as follows:
Net premiums earned. Net premiums earned decreased $4 for the year ended December 31, 2022, compared to the same period in the prior year. Net premiums earned were impacted by the organic and active runoff of the financial guarantee insured portfolio resulting in a reduction to current and future normal net premiums earned and the following:
•Changes to the allowance for credit losses on the premium receivable asset. The positive impact on net premiums earned related to credit losses amounted to $4 and $8 for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively.
•Accelerated financial guarantee premiums earned as a result of calls and other accelerations on insured obligations, largely due to active de-risking of the insured portfolio, were $8 and $1 for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively.
Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses (Benefit). Losses and loss adjustment expenses are based upon estimates of the aggregate losses inherent in the non-derivative portfolio for insurance policies issued to beneficiaries, excluding consolidated VIEs.
Ambac recorded as a component of its loss reserve estimate subrogation recoverables related to securitized loans in RMBS transactions with respect to which AAC pursued claims for breaches of representations and warranties. Ambac has recorded representation and warranty ("R&W") subrogation recoverables, net of reinsurance, of $140 and $1,704 at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. The decrease in these recoverables was primarily attributable to the settlement agreement with Bank of America Corporation and certain affiliates. On December 29, 2022, AAC entered into a Settlement Agreement and Release with Nomura Credit & Capital, Inc. whereby the parties settled all RMBS litigation brought by AAC against Nomura and AAC received $140 on January 3, 2023 bringing to a close all of AAC's legacy litigation against RMBS sponsor.
The following provides details for losses and loss expenses (benefit) incurred for the periods presented:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structured Finance | $ | (207) | $ | (20) | |||
| Domestic Public Finance | (192) | (73) | |||||
| Other | (6) | 4 | |||||
| Totals (1) | $ | (406) | $ | (89) |
(1) Includes loss expenses incurred of $29, $55 and $103 for the year ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively.
Losses and loss expenses (benefit) for 2022, were driven by favorable RMBS development due to the impact of the settlement agreements with Bank of America Corporation and certain affiliates thereof and Nomura Credit and Capital, Inc. of $123 and the positive impact of discount rates, and favorable loss development in domestic public finance (primarily due to the Puerto Rico restructurings of $180).
Legacy financial guarantee losses and loss expenses for 2021 were largely driven by favorable loss development in domestic
public finance, primarily related to Puerto Rico, and structured finance, primarily related to improved credit in RMBS, partially offset by the negative impact of discount rates, and loss expenses incurred.
G&A Expenses. The increase in operating expenses during the year ended December 31, 2022, as compared to the year ended December 31, 2021, is driven primarily by additional costs related to defensive litigation of $26. Compensation cost benefits relative to 2021 from headcount reductions in the segment were more than offset by the impact of incentive compensation performance factor adjustments and severance charges.
Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance
| Year Ended December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross premiums written | $ | 146 | $ | 13 | |||
| Net premiums written | 29 | 3 | |||||
| Revenues: | |||||||
| Net premiums earned | $ | 14 | $ | 1 | |||
| Net investment income | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Net investment gains (losses), including impairments | — | — | |||||
| Program fees | 3 | — | |||||
| Total | 18 | 2 | |||||
| Expenses: | |||||||
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses (benefit) | 9 | — | |||||
| Amortization of deferred acquisition costs, net | 3 | — | |||||
| General and administrative expenses | 13 | 9 | |||||
| Net (gain) loss attributable to noncontrolling interest | — | — | |||||
| EBITDA | (6) | $ | (8) | ||||
| Pretax income (loss) | $ | (6) | $ | (8) | |||
| Loss and LAE Ratio | 65.4 | % | NM | ||||
| Combined Ratio | 158.1 | % | NM | ||||
| Ambac's stockholders equity (1) | $ | 110 | $ | 109 |
(1)Represents Ambac stockholders equity in the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment, including intercompany eliminations.
The Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment has grown significantly since underwriting its first program in May 2021. Fourteen programs were authorized to issue policies as of December 31, 2022. The growth in both the number and size of these programs has contributed to the increase in gross and net premiums written, net premiums earned and net loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred.
Loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred may be adversely impacted by increasing economic and social inflation, particularly within the commercial auto business. The impact of inflation on ultimate loss reserves is difficult to estimate, particularly in light of recent disruptions to the judicial system, supply chain and labor markets. Going forward, we may not be able to offset the impact of inflation on our loss costs with sufficient price increases. The estimation of loss reserves may also be more difficult during extreme events, such as a
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pandemic, or during the persistence of volatile or uncertain economic conditions, due to, amongst other reasons, unexpected changes in behavior of claimants and policyholders, including an increase in fraudulent reporting of exposures and/or losses. Due to the inherent uncertainty underlying loss reserve estimates, the final resolution of the estimated liability for loss and loss adjustment expenses will likely be higher or lower than the related loss reserves at the reporting date. In addition, our estimate of losses and loss expenses may change. These additional liabilities or increases in estimates, or a range of either, could vary significantly from period to period.
On September 28, 2022, Hurricane Ian reached landfall resulting in significant damage primarily in the states of Florida and South Carolina. Everspan's estimate of losses and loss expenses from this event is not material.
Segment pre-tax net income was favorably impacted by underwriting income driven by growth in earned premium and program fees relative to loss and loss adjustment expenses for the year ended December 31, 2022, compared to the year ended December 31, 2021. General and Administrative expenses for the year ended December 31, 2022 increased as compared to the year ended December 31, 2021 primarily driven by costs associated with the increase in Everspan's operations including changes in staffing. Costs associated with the acquisition of additional shell insurance companies, as we continued to ramp up Everspan's operations, impacted pre-tax income for the year ended December 31, 2022 by approximately $1, relative to the year ended December 31, 2021.
Insurance Distribution
| Year Ended December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premiums placed | $ | 135 | $ | 117 | |||
| Commission income | $ | 31 | $ | 26 | |||
| Commission expense | 18 | 15 | |||||
| Net commissions | 13 | 12 | |||||
| Expenses: | |||||||
| General and administrative expenses | 6 | 5 | |||||
| Net (gain) attributable to noncontrolling interest | (1) | (1) | |||||
| EBITDA | 6 | 5 | |||||
| Depreciation (1) | — | — | |||||
| Intangible amortization | 3 | 3 | |||||
| Pretax income (loss) | $ | 5 | $ | 4 | |||
| Ambac's stockholders equity (2) | $ | 93 | $ | 66 |
(1) The Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income includes this in General and Administrative Expenses.
(2) Represents the share of Ambac stockholders equity for each subsidiary within the Insurance Distribution segment, including intercompany eliminations.
Ambac's Insurance Distribution segment, Cirrata Group "Cirrata", currently includes Xchange Benefits, a P&C MGA specializing in accident and health products; All Trans, a full service managing general underwriter with delegated underwriting authority in commercial automobile insurance for
specific "for-hire" auto classes; and Capacity Marine, a wholesale and retail brokerage and reinsurance intermediary specializing in marine and international risk. The Insurance Distribution business is typically compensated for its services primarily by commissions paid by insurance carriers for underwriting, structuring and/or administering polices and, in some cases, the managing of claims under an agency agreement. Commission revenues are usually based on a percentage of the premiums placed. Cirrata is also eligible to receive profit sharing contingent commissions on certain of its programs based on the underwriting results of the policies it places with the carrier, which may cause some variability in revenue and earnings.
Cirrata business placed premiums for its carriers of approximately $135 for the year ended December 31, 2022, up $18 or 15% as compared to the year ended December 31, 2021. The growth was primarily driven by premiums placed by All Trans and Capacity Marine since their acquisition in November 2022.
Employer Stop Loss business underwritten by Xchange has seasonality in January and July, which result in revenue and earnings concentrations in the first and third quarters each calendar year, however, we expect this to become less pronounced over time as Cirrata continues to grow and diversify into other classes of business.
G&A Expenses. General and Administrative expenses for the year ended December 31, 2022 increased slightly as compared to the year ended December 31, 2021 as a result of employees hired to support the ESL renewal rights acquisition that occurred on April 29, 2022 and operating costs at All Trans and Capacity Marine since their acquisition in November 2022.
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
($ in millions)
Holding Company Liquidity
AFG is organized as a legal entity separate and distinct from its operating subsidiaries. AFG is a holding company with no outstanding debt. AFG’s liquidity is primarily dependent on its net assets, excluding the operating subsidiaries that it owns, totaling $223 as of December 31, 2022, and secondarily on distributions and expense sharing payments from its operating subsidiaries.
•Under an inter-company cost allocation agreement, AFG is reimbursed by AAC for a portion of certain operating costs and expenses and, if approved by OCI, entitled to an additional payment of up to $4 per year to cover expenses not otherwise reimbursed. The $4 reimbursement for 2021 expenses was approved by OCI and paid to AFG in April 2022.
•Substantial uncertainty remains as to AAC's ability to pay dividends to AFG and the timing of any such dividends.
•Everspan's ability to make future dividend payments will mostly depend on its future profitability relative to its capital needs to support growth. Everspan is not expected to pay dividends in the near term.
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•Cirrata does not have any regulatory restrictions on its ability to make distributions. AFG received distributions from Cirrata of $6 and $6 during the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021.
AFG's principal uses of liquidity are: (i) the payment of operating expenses, including costs to explore opportunities to grow and diversify Ambac, (ii) the making of strategic investments, which may include illiquid investments and (iii) making capital investments to acquire, grow and/or capitalize new and/or existing businesses; such capital investments include investments in technology to support the efficient operation of our Specialty Property and Casualty and Insurance Distribution businesses. AFG may also provide short-term financial support, primarily in the form of loans, to its operating subsidiaries to support their operating requirements. AFG supported the development of the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance business, and its acquisitions, with cash contributions of $15 and $92 to the Everspan group of companies during the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively.
In the opinion of the Company’s management the net assets of AFG are sufficient to meet AFG’s current liquidity requirements. However, events, opportunities or circumstances could arise that may cause AFG to seek additional capital (e.g. through the issuance of debt, equity or hybrid securities).
Operating Companies' Liquidity
Insurance:
Sources of liquidity for the Company’s insurance subsidiaries are through funds generated from premiums, recoveries of prior claim payments, reinsurance recoveries, fees, investment income and maturities and sales of investments.
•See Note 8. Insurance Contracts to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8, in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for a summary of future gross financial guarantee premiums to be collected by AAC and Ambac UK. Termination of financial guarantee policies on an accelerated basis may adversely impact AAC’s liquidity.
Cash provided from these sources is used primarily for claim payments and commutations, loss expenses, acquisition costs (Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment only), debt service (Legacy Financial Guarantee segment only), operating expenses, reinsurance payments and purchases of securities and other investments.
•Interest and principal payments on surplus notes are subject to the approval of OCI, which has full discretion over payments regardless of the liquidity position of AAC. As discussed more fully in "Results of Operations" above in this Management's Discussion and Analysis, OCI declined AAC's request to pay the principal amount of the surplus notes, plus all accrued and unpaid interest thereon, on June 7, 2022.
•As further described in Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K: (i) effective October 29, 2022, AAC wholly redeemed the Sitka AAC Note and partially redeemed Tier
2 Notes and (ii) effective January 15, 2023, AAC fully redeemed the remaining Tier 2 Notes. Additionally, in the second and fourth quarters of 2022, AAC repurchased $334 current par of surplus notes (including $67 from AFG). Following these redemptions and repurchases, current principal outstanding on AAC's long-term debt consisted of $519 of surplus notes. AAC's future interest obligations on long-term debt after giving effect to these redemptions include $447 of accrued and unpaid interest that would be payable on surplus notes if approved by OCI on the next scheduled payment date of June 7, 2023.
•Ambac Financial Services ("AFS") uses interest rate derivatives (primarily interest rate swaps and US Treasury futures) as a partial economic hedge against the effects of rising interest rates elsewhere in the Legacy Financial Guarantee segment. AFS's derivatives also include interest rate swaps previously provided to asset-backed issuers and other entities in connection with their financings. AAC lends AFS cash and securities as needed to fund payments under these derivative contracts, collateral posting requirements and operating expenses. Intercompany loans are governed by an established lending agreement with defined borrowing limits that has received non-disapproval from OCI.
Insurance subsidiaries manage their liquidity risk by maintaining comprehensive analyses of projected cash flows and maintaining specified levels of cash and short-term investments at all times. It is the opinion of the Company’s management that the insurance subsidiaries’ near term liquidity needs will be adequately met from the sources described above.
Insurance Distribution:
The liquidity requirements of our Insurance Distribution subsidiaries are met primarily by funds generated from commission receipts (both base and profit commissions). Base commissions are generally received monthly, whereas profit commissions are received only if the business underwritten is profitable. Cash provided from these sources is used primarily for commissions paid to sub-producers, operating expenses and distributions to AFG and other members.
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement Discussion
The following table summarizes the net cash flows for the periods presented.
| Year Ended December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash provided by (used in): | ||||||||||
| Operating activities | $ | 1,335 | $ | (131) | $ | (175) | ||||
| Investing activities | 866 | 776 | 432 | |||||||
| Financing activities (1) | (2,163) | (657) | (303) | |||||||
| Effect of foreign exchange on cash and cash equivalents | (1) | — | — | |||||||
| Net cash flow | $ | 38 | $ | (12) | $ | (46) |
(1)During the 2022, AAC made payments of $476 to accelerate AAC-insured PRIFA, CCDA and HTA bonds that were not commuted and were deposited into trusts established under the Puerto Rico restructurings. Also during 2022, AAC received $165 for redemption of PRIFA trust units held in its investment portfolio. Because these trusts are consolidated VIEs, this net cash activity of
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$311 is reflected as payments of VIE liabilities in financing activities for the year ended December 31, 2022.
Operating activities
The following represents the significant cash operating activities during the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021:
•Cash provided by (i) gross premiums (net of commissions paid) were $139 and $38 for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively; (ii) non-VIE interest rate derivatives were $84 and $(1) for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively; (iii) VIE derivative payments were $(326) and $(24) for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively; (iv) non-VIE investment portfolio income was $82 and $80 for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively; and (v) cash settlements from the Puerto Rico restructuring transactions to the consolidated trusts were $47 for the year ended December 31, 2022.
•Payments for non VIE debt service and accreted interest on redemptions and debt repurchases of the Sitka AAC Note, Tier 2 Notes and Surplus Notes were $59, $70 and $154, respectively, for the year ended December 31, 2022. Debt service payments on the LSNI Ambac Note and Sitka AAC Note were $51 and $30, respectively, for the year ended December 31, 2021.
•Payments related to (i) operating expenses were $94 and $83 for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively; and (ii) reinsurance premiums paid were $66 and $26 for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively
•Net Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance loss and loss adjustment expenses paid (recovered), including commutation payments, during the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021 are detailed below:
| Year Ended December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net loss and loss adjustment expenses paid (recovered): | ||||||
| Net losses paid | $ | 298 | $ | 103 | ||
| Net subrogation received (1) | (1,951) | (121) | ||||
| Net loss expenses paid | 48 | 77 | ||||
| Net cash flow | $ | (1,605) | $ | 59 |
(1)Includes the majority of the recoveries from the BOA Settlement Payment except for the portion allocated to fraud litigation recoveries. The fraud litigation recoveries were $126 and are also included in cash flows from operations.
Future operating cash flows will primarily be impacted by net premium collections, investment coupon receipts, fee and net commission revenues, operating expenses, net claim and loss expense payments and debt interest payments.
Financing Activities
Financing activities for the year ended December 31, 2022, included payments for repurchase of surplus notes of $191, redemption of Sitka AAC Note of $1,210, partial redemption of Tier 2 Notes of $143, share repurchases of $14, repurchases of auction market preferred shares of $8 and paydowns and maturities of VIE debt obligations of $591 (including payments
for the accelerations of the VIE trusts created from the Puerto Rico restructuring).
Financing activities for the year ended December 31, 2021, include paydowns of the LSNI Ambac Note of $1,641 and paydowns and maturities of VIE debt obligations of $170. Net cash used in financing activities was partially offset by net proceeds from issuance of the Sitka AAC Note of $1,163.
Future financing activities will include additional accelerations and redemptions of the VIE trusts created from the Puerto Rico restructuring, including $136 through February 16, 2023.
Collateral
AFS hedges a portion of the interest rate risk in the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance segment and investment portfolios, along with legacy customer interest rate swaps, with standardized derivative contracts, including financial futures contracts, which contain collateral or margin requirements. Under these hedge agreements, AFS is required to post collateral or margin to its counterparties and futures commission merchants to cover unrealized losses. In addition, AFS is required to post collateral or margin in excess of the amounts needed to cover unrealized losses. All AFS derivative contracts containing ratings-based downgrade triggers that could result in collateral or margin posting or a termination have been triggered. If terminations were to occur, AFS would be required to make termination payments but would also receive a return of collateral or margin in the form of cash or U.S. Treasury obligations with market values equal to or in excess of market values of the swaps and futures contracts. AFS may look to re-establish hedge positions that are terminated early, resulting in additional collateral or margin obligations. The amount of additional collateral or margin posted on derivatives contracts will depend on several variables including the degree to which counterparties exercise their termination rights (or agreements terminate automatically) and the terms on which hedges can be replaced. All collateral and margin obligations are currently met. Collateral and margin posted by AFS totaled $70 (cash and securities, at fair value, of $6 and $64 respectively), including independent amounts, under these contracts at December 31, 2022.
BALANCE SHEET ($ in millions)
Total assets decreased by approximately $4,330 from December 31, 2021 to $7,973 at December 31, 2022, primarily due to the reduction in asset values of VIEs of $2,162 and subrogation recoverables of $1,821. The decline in VIEs was driven by increases in interest rates, the strengthening of the US dollar against the British Pound Sterling and assets used to fund VIE obligation repayments. The decline in subrogation recoverables was largely due to receipts under the settlement agreement with Bank of America Corporation and certain affiliates. Additional declines in total assets were the result of (i) the payment of loss and loss adjustment expenses, interest and operating expenses, (ii) declines in invested asset values, (iii) lower derivative assets caused by rising interest rates, (iv) repurchases of Ambac common stock and AAC surplus notes and (v) lower premium receivables and intangible assets from
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the continued runoff of the financial guarantee insurance portfolio.
Total liabilities decreased by approximately $4,540 from December 31, 2021, to $6,647 as of December 31, 2022, primarily due to reductions in the value of VIEs liabilities of $1,996 based on consistent factors as noted above in assets. Additional liability declines driven by (i) the significant reduction in gross loss reserves from the Puerto Rico restructuring; (ii) the impacts of the redemption of secured notes of $1,352 described in Note 1. Background and Business Description in this Annual Report on Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8, (iii) repurchases of AAC surplus notes during 2022 with a carrying value of principal and interest of $461 at December 31, 2021, and (iv) lower derivative liabilities caused by rising interest rates.
As of December 31, 2022, total stockholders’ equity was $1,305, compared with total stockholders’ equity of $1,098 at December 31, 2021. This increase was primarily due to a Total Comprehensive Income during 2022 primarily driven by the net
income attributable to common stockholders for the year ended December 31, 2022, of $522, partially offset by unrealized losses on investments of $225 and translation losses on the consolidation of AFG's foreign subsidiaries.of $85.
Ambac's investment portfolio is managed under established guidelines designed to meet the investment objectives of AAC, Everspan, Ambac UK and AFG. Refer to "Description of the Business — Investments and Investment Policy" in this Annual Report on Form 10-K located in Part I. Item 1, for further description of Ambac's investment policies and applicable regulations.
Refer to Note 5. Investments to the Consolidated Financial Statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8 for information about Ambac's consolidated investment portfolio. Ambac's investment polices and objectives do not apply to the assets of VIEs consolidated as a result of financial guarantees written by its insurance subsidiaries.
Investment Portfolio
The following table summarizes the composition of Ambac’s investment portfolio, excluding VIE investments, at carrying value at December 31, 2022 and 2021:
| Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance | Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consolidated | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2022 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed maturity securities | $ | 1,281 | $ | 102 | $ | — | $ | 12 | $ | 1,395 | |||||||||
| Fixed maturity securities - trading | 59 | — | — | — | 59 | ||||||||||||||
| Short-term | 303 | 29 | — | 175 | 507 | ||||||||||||||
| Other investments | 552 | — | — | 16 | 568 | ||||||||||||||
| Fixed maturity securities pledged as collateral | 64 | — | — | — | 64 | ||||||||||||||
| Total investments (1) | $ | 2,259 | $ | 131 | $ | — | $ | 203 | $ | 2,593 | |||||||||
| December 31, 2021 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed maturity securities | $ | 1,630 | $ | 72 | $ | — | $ | 28 | $ | 1,730 | |||||||||
| Fixed maturity securities - trading | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| Short-term | 258 | 32 | — | 124 | 414 | ||||||||||||||
| Other investments | 679 | — | — | 11 | 690 | ||||||||||||||
| Fixed maturity securities pledged as collateral | 120 | — | — | — | 120 | ||||||||||||||
| Total investments (1) | $ | 2,687 | $ | 104 | $ | — | $ | 164 | $ | 2,955 |
(1) Includes investments denominated in non-US dollar currencies with a fair value of £296 ($357) and €39 ($42) as of December 31, 2022 and £341 ($462) and €38 ($43) as of December 31, 2021.
Ambac invests in various asset classes in its fixed maturity securities portfolio. Other investments include diversified equity interests in pooled funds. Refer to Note 5. Investments to the Consolidated Financial Statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8 for information about fixed maturity securities and pooled funds by asset class.
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The following charts provide the ratings(1) distribution of the fixed maturity investment portfolio based on fair value at December 31, 2022 and 2021.
(1)Ratings are based on the lower of Moody’s or S&P ratings. If ratings are unavailable from Moody's or S&P, Fitch ratings are used. If guaranteed, rating represents the higher of the underlying or guarantor’s financial strength rating.
(2)Below investment grade and not rated bonds insured by Ambac represented 19% and 32% of the 2022 and 2021 combined fixed maturity investment portfolios, respectively. The decrease is primarily due to the impact of the settlement of insured Puerto Rico bonds described above, under Financial Guarantees in Force.
Premium Receivables. Ambac's premium receivables decreased to $269 at December 31, 2022, from $323 at December 31, 2021. As further discussed in Note 8. Insurance Contracts to the Consolidated Financial Statements, in this Annual Report Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8, the decrease is due to premium receipts and adjustments for changes in expected and contractual cash flows on financial guarantee insurance contracts, partially offset by decreases to the
allowance for credit losses, accretion of the financial guarantee premium receivable discount and increases to premium receivables on the Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance business due to increased volume of policy issuances.
Premium receivables by payment currency were as follows:
| Currency (Amounts in millions) | Premium Receivable in Payment Currency | Premium Receivable in U.S. dollars | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Dollars | $ | 184 | $ | 184 | |||
| British Pounds | £ | 59 | 71 | ||||
| Euros | € | 13 | 14 | ||||
| Total | $ | 269 |
Reinsurance Recoverable on Paid and Unpaid Losses. Ambac has reinsurance in place pursuant to quota share, surplus share treaty and facultative agreements. To minimize its exposure to losses from reinsurers, Ambac (i) monitors the financial condition of its reinsurers; (ii) is entitled to receive collateral from its reinsurance counterparties under certain reinsurance contracts; and (iii) has certain cancellation rights that can be exercised in the event of rating agency downgrades of a reinsurer (among other events and circumstances). For those reinsurance counterparties that do not currently post collateral, Ambac’s reinsurers are well capitalized, highly rated, authorized capacity providers. Ambac benefited from letters of credit and collateral amounting to approximately $116 from its reinsurers at December 31, 2022. As of December 31, 2022 and 2021, reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses were $115 and $55, respectively. Special Property and Casualty Insurance amounted to $82 and $32 at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. Legacy Financial Guarantee amounted to $33 and $23 at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. The increase was primarily a result of the growth of the Special Property and Casualty Insurance business.
Intangible Assets. Intangible assets includes (i) an insurance intangible asset that was established at AFG's emergence from bankruptcy, representing the difference between the fair value and aggregate carrying value of the financial guarantee insurance and reinsurance assets and liabilities, (ii) intangible assets established as part of the acquisition of Xchange in 2020, (iii) indefinite-lived intangible assets established as part of the acquisition of admitted carriers in both 2021 and 2022, and (iv) intangible assets established as part of the acquisition of All Trans and Capacity Marine in 2022. Refer to Note 4. Business Combination to the Consolidated Financial Statements, in this Annual Report Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8 for further information relating to the acquisitions of Xchange, All Trans and Capacity Marine.
As of December 31, 2022 and 2021, the net intangible asset was $326 and $362, respectively. The decline is driven by amortization and translation gains (losses) from the consolidation of Ambac's foreign subsidiary (Ambac UK), partially offset by the new assets established in 2022.
Derivative Assets and Liabilities. The interest rate derivative portfolio is positioned to benefit from rising rates as a partial hedge against interest rate exposure in the financial guarantee and investment portfolios. Derivative assets and
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liabilities on the balance sheet primarily reflect the portion of the portfolio that is not subject to daily cash variation margin payments. Derivative assets decreased from $76 at December 31, 2021, to $27 as of December 31, 2022. Derivative liabilities decreased from $95 at December 31, 2021, to $38 as of December 31, 2022. The decreases resulted primarily from higher interest rates during the year ended December 31, 2022, with the decline in assets partially offset by lower counterparty credit adjustments.
Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves and Subrogation Recoverable. Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are based upon estimates of the ultimate aggregate losses inherent in the non-derivative portfolio for insurance policies issued to beneficiaries, including unconsolidated VIEs. The evaluation process for determining the level of reserves is subject to certain estimates and
judgments. Refer to the "Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates" and “Results of Operations” sections of Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, in addition to Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies and Loss Reserves sections included in Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies and Note 8. Insurance Contracts, respectively, to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, for further information on loss and loss adjustment expenses.
The loss and loss adjustment expense reserves net of subrogation recoverables and before reinsurance as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 were $534 and $(522), respectively. Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are included in the Consolidated Balance Sheets as follows:
| Specialty Property and Casualty | Legacy Financial Guarantee | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Present Value of Expected Net Cash Flows | Unearned Premium Revenue | Gross Lossand LossExpenseReserves (2) | |||||||||||||||||
| Balance Sheet Line Item | Gross Loss and Loss Expense Reserves | Claims and Loss Expenses | Recoveries (1) | ||||||||||||||||
| December 31, 2022: | |||||||||||||||||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves | $ | 90 | $ | 787 | $ | (44) | $ | (28) | $ | 805 | |||||||||
| Subrogation recoverable | — | 5 | (276) | — | (271) | ||||||||||||||
| Totals | $ | 90 | $ | 791 | $ | (319) | $ | (28) | $ | 534 | |||||||||
| December 31, 2021: | : | ||||||||||||||||||
| Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves | $ | 32 | $ | 1,749 | $ | (155) | $ | (56) | $ | 1,570 | |||||||||
| Subrogation recoverable | — | 88 | (2,180) | — | (2,092) | ||||||||||||||
| Totals | $ | 32 | $ | 1,837 | $ | (2,335) | $ | (56) | $ | (522) |
(1)Present value of future recoveries include R&W subrogation recoveries of $140 and $1,730 at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively.
Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance. Ambac has exposure to various bond types issued in the debt capital markets. The bond types that have experienced significant claims, including through commutations, are RMBS, student loan securities and public finance securities. These bond types represent 91% of our ever-to-date insurance claims recorded with RMBS comprising 63%.
The table below indicates gross par outstanding and the components of gross loss and loss adjustment expense reserves related to policies in Ambac’s gross loss and loss adjustment expense reserves at December 31, 2022 and 2021:
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| Present Value of Expected Net Cash Flows | Unearned Premium Revenue | Gross Loss and Loss Expense Reserves (1)(2) | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ in millions) | Gross Par Outstanding (1) | Claims and Loss Expenses | Recoveries | |||||||||||||||
| December 31, 2022: | ||||||||||||||||||
| Structured Finance | $ | 2,050 | $ | 664 | $ | (296) | $ | (10) | $ | 358 | ||||||||
| Domestic Public Finance (3) | 1,215 | 96 | (11) | (10) | 75 | |||||||||||||
| Other | 782 | 23 | (12) | (8) | 3 | |||||||||||||
| Loss expenses | — | 8 | — | — | 8 | |||||||||||||
| Totals | $ | 4,047 | $ | 791 | $ | (319) | $ | (28) | $ | 444 | ||||||||
| December 31, 2021: | ||||||||||||||||||
| Structured Finance | $ | 2,371 | $ | 852 | $ | (2,018) | $ | (12) | $ | (1,178) | ||||||||
| Domestic Public Finance | 2,742 | 905 | (312) | (31) | 562 | |||||||||||||
| Other | 1,189 | 35 | (5) | (13) | 17 | |||||||||||||
| Loss expenses | — | 45 | — | — | 45 | |||||||||||||
| Totals | $ | 6,302 | $ | 1,837 | $ | (2,335) | $ | (56) | $ | (554) |
(1)Ceded par outstanding on policies with loss reserves and ceded loss and loss adjustment expense reserves were $472 and $33, respectively, at December 31, 2022 and $784 and $24, respectively at December 31, 2021. Ceded loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are included in Reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses.
(2)Loss reserves are included in the balance sheet as loss and loss adjustment expense reserves or Subrogation recoverable dependent on if a policy is in a net liability or net recoverable position.
(3)As a result of the Puerto Rico restructuring and the subsequent acceleration of the AAC insured PRIFA and CCDA bonds gross par outstanding was reduced by $593. Additionally, as a result of the Puerto Rico restructuring and subsequent consolidation of VIE's of AAC insured HTA bonds gross par outstanding was reduced by $410.
The table below reflects the timing of expected financial guarantee claim payments based on deal specific cash flows, excluding expected recoveries. These deal specific cash flows are based on the expected cash flows of the underlying transactions with the majority of these payments expected at or close to the final maturity of the related insurance policy. The timing of expected claim payments for credits with reserves that were established using our statistical loss reserve method is determined based on the weighted average expected life of the exposure. Refer to the Loss Reserves section in Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further discussion of our statistical loss reserve method. The timing of these payments may vary significantly from the amounts shown above, especially for credits that are based on our statistical loss reserve method.
| Payments Due by Period | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ in millions) | Total | Less Than 1 Year | 1 - 3 Years | 3 - 5 Years | More Than 5 Years | |||||||||||||
| Claim payments | $ | 1,279 | $ | 26 | $ | 51 | $ | 46 | $ | 1,156 |
Variability of Expected Losses and Recoveries
Ambac’s management believes loss reserves (present value of expected cash flows, net of recoveries) are adequate to cover future claim payments, but there can be no assurance that the ultimate liability will not be higher than such estimates.
While our loss reserves consider our judgment regarding issuers’ financial flexibility to adapt to adverse markets, they may not adequately capture sudden, unexpected or protracted uncertainty that adversely affects market conditions. Accordingly, it is possible that our estimated loss reserves, gross of reinsurance, for financial guarantee insurance policies could be understated. We have attempted to identify possible cash flows related to losses and recoveries using more stressful assumptions than the probability-weighted outcome recorded. The possible net cash flows consider the highest stress scenario that was utilized in the development of our probability-weighted expected loss at December 31, 2022, and assumes an inability to execute any commutation transactions with issuers and/or investors. Such stress scenarios are developed based on management’s view
about all possible outcomes relating to losses and recoveries. In arriving at such view, management makes considerable judgments about the possibility of various future events. Although we do not believe it is possible to have stressed outcomes in all cases, it is possible that we could have stress case outcomes in some or even many cases. See “Risk Factors” in Part I, Item 1A in this Annual Report on Form 10-K as well as the descriptions of "Structured Finance Variability," "Public Finance Variability," and "Other Credits, including Ambac UK, Variability," below for further discussion of the risks relating to future losses and recoveries that could result in more highly stressed outcomes appearing below.
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The occurrence of these stressed outcomes individually or collectively would have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition and may result in materially adverse consequence for Ambac, including (without limitation) impairing the ability of AAC to honor its financial obligations, particularly its outstanding surplus note and preferred stock obligations; the initiation of rehabilitation proceedings against AAC; decreased likelihood of AAC delivering value to AFG, through dividends or otherwise; and a significant drop in the value of securities issued or insured by AFG or AAC.
Structured Finance
RMBS:
Changes to assumptions that could make our reserves under-estimated include an increase in interest rates, deterioration in housing prices, poor servicing, government intervention into the functioning of the mortgage market and the effect of a weakened economy characterized by growing unemployment and wage pressures. We utilize a model to project losses in our RMBS exposures and changes to reserves, either upward or downward, are not unlikely if we used a different model or methodology to project losses. In the case of both first and second-lien exposures, the possible stress case assumes a lower housing price appreciation projection, which in turn drives higher defaults and severities.
Student Loans:
Changes to assumptions that could make our reserves under-estimated include, but are not limited to, increases in interest rates, default rates and loss severities on the collateral due to economic or other factors, including the economic impact from public health crises and/or natural or other catastrophic events. Such factors may include lower recoveries on defaulted loans or additional losses on collateral or trust assets, including as a result of any enforcement actions by the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau.
Structured Finance Variability:
Using the approaches described above, the possible increase in loss reserves for structured finance credits for which we have an estimate of expected loss at December 31, 2022, could be approximately $15. Additionally, loss payments are sensitive to changes in interest rates, increasing as interest rates rise. For example, an increase in interest rates of 1% could increase our estimate of expected losses by approximately $25. There can be no assurance that losses may not exceed such amounts. Due to the uncertainties related to risks associated with structured finance credits, there can be no assurance that losses may not exceed our stress case estimates.
Public Finance
Ambac’s U.S. public finance portfolio consists of municipal bonds such as general and revenue obligations and lease and tax-backed obligations of state and local government entities; however, the portfolio also includes a wide array of non-municipal types of bonds, including transactions with public and private elements, which generally finance infrastructure, housing and other public purpose facilities and interests, the largest sector of which is U.S. military housing.
It is possible our loss reserves for public finance credits may be under-estimated if issuers are faced with prolonged exposure to adverse political, judicial, economic, fiscal or socioeconomic events or trends. Additionally, our loss reserves may be under-estimated because of the local, regional or national economic impact from public health crises and/or natural or other catastrophic events.
Our experience with the city of Detroit's bankruptcy and Commonwealth of Puerto Rico's Title III proceedings as well as other municipal bankruptcies demonstrates the preferential treatment of certain creditor classes, especially the public pensions. The cost of pensions and the need to address frequently sizable unfunded or underfunded pensions is often a key driver of stress for many municipalities and their related authorities, including entities to whom we have significant exposure, such as Chicago's school district, the State of New Jersey and others. Less severe treatment of pension obligations in bankruptcy may lead to worse outcomes for traditional debt creditors.
Variability of outcomes applies to even what are generally considered more secure municipal financings, such as dedicated sales tax revenue bonds that capture sales tax revenues for debt service ahead of any amounts being deposited into the general fund of an issuer. In the case of the Puerto Rico COFINA sales tax bonds that were part of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico's Title III proceedings, AAC and other creditors agreed to settle at a recovery rate equal to about 93% of pre-petition amounts owed on the Ambac insured senior COFINA bonds. In the COFINA case, the senior bonds still received a reduction or "haircut" despite the existence of junior COFINA bonds, which received a recovery rate equal to about 56% of pre-petition amounts owed.
In addition, municipal entities may be more inclined to use bankruptcy to resolve their financial stresses if they believe preferred outcomes for various creditor groups can be achieved. We expect municipal bankruptcies and defaults to continue to be challenging to project given the unique political, economic, fiscal, legal, governance and public policy differences among municipalities as well as the complexity, long duration and relative infrequency of the cases themselves in forums with a scarcity of legal precedent. Moreover, issuers in Chapter 9 or similar proceedings may obtain judicial rulings and orders that impair creditors' rights or their ability to collect on amounts owed. In certain cases, judicial decisions may be contrary to AAC's expectations or understanding of the law or its rights thereunder, which may lead to worse outcomes in Chapter 9 or similar proceedings than anticipated at the outset.
Another potentially adverse development that could cause the loss reserves on our public finance credits to be underestimated is deterioration in the municipal bond market, resulting from reduced or limited access to alternative forms of credit (such as bank loans) or other exogenous factors, such as changes in tax law that could reduce certain municipal investors' appetite for tax-exempt municipal bonds or put pressure on issuers in states with high state and local taxes. These factors could deprive issuers access to funding at a level necessary to avoid defaulting on their obligations.
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Following the December 6, 2022, consummation of the PRHTA POA all of Ambac’s exposures to the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico across various instrumentalities have now been restructured and AAC's exposures to Puerto Rico has been reduced to $244 of net par outstanding at December 31, 2022. AAC has further reduced its Puerto Rico exposure since year-end through accelerations and redemptions. However, some uncertainty remains as it relates to the extent and timing to which exposure management strategies, such as commutation and acceleration, will be executed to further reduce exposure to Puerto Rico, and, to a lesser extent, market conditions such as interest rate movements, credit spread changes on remaining plan consideration supporting AAC-insured Puerto Rico exposure in trusts, such as COFINA bonds and PRHTA '98 CVI instruments.
Material additional losses on our public finance credits caused by the aforementioned factors would have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. For the public finance credits, including Puerto Rico, for which we have an estimate of expected loss at December 31, 2022, the possible increase in loss reserves could be approximately $115 and there can be no assurance that losses may not exceed our stress case estimates.
Other Credits, including Ambac UK, Variability
It is possible our loss reserves on other types of credits, including those insured by Ambac UK, may be under-estimated because of various risks that vary widely, including the risk that we may not be able to recover or mitigate losses through our remediation processes. For all other credits, including Ambac UK, for which we have an estimate of expected loss, the sum of all the highest stress case loss scenarios is approximately $295 greater than the loss reserves at December 31, 2022. There can be no assurance that losses may not exceed our stress case estimates.
Long-term Debt. The carrying value of each of these as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 is below:
| December 31, | 2022 | 2021 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surplus Notes | $ | 477 | $ | 729 | |||
| LSNI Ambac Note | — | — | |||||
| Sitka AAC Note | — | 1,154 | |||||
| Tier 2 Notes | 146 | 333 | |||||
| Ambac UK Debt | 16 | 15 | |||||
| Total Long-term Debt | $ | 639 | $ | 2,230 |
The decrease in long-term debt from December 31, 2021 resulted from repurchases of surplus notes and the impact of the redemption of secured notes in 2022, described further in Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, partially offset by accretion on the carrying value of surplus notes and Ambac UK debt, and paid-in-kind interest on Tier 2 Notes.
Redeemable Noncontrolling Interest. The increase during 2022 was the result the acquisition of All Trans and Capacity Marine partially offset by the remeasurement of the redemption value of the put option provided to the minority owners (noncontrolling interest holders) of Xchange as if it were exercisable on December 31, 2022. Refer to Note 4. Business Combination for further information relating to Ambac's acquisitions.
ACCOUNTING STANDARDS
Please refer to Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report Form 10-K for a discussion of the impact of recent accounting pronouncements on Ambac’s financial condition and results of operations.
U.S. STATUTORY BASIS FINANCIAL RESULTS ($ in millions)
AFG's U.S. insurance subsidiaries prepare financial statements under accounting practices prescribed or permitted by its domiciliary state regulator (“SAP”) for determining and reporting the financial condition and results of operations of an insurance company. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (“NAIC”) Accounting Practices and Procedures manual (“NAIC SAP”) is adopted as a component of prescribed practices by each domiciliary state. For further information, see Note 9. Insurance Regulatory Restrictions to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report Form 10-K.
Ambac Assurance Corporation
AAC’s statutory policyholder surplus and qualified statutory capital (defined as the sum of policyholders surplus and mandatory contingency reserves) were $598 and $1,191 at December 31, 2022, respectively, as compared to $757 and $1,322 at December 31, 2021, respectively. As of December 31, 2022, statutory policyholder surplus and qualified statutory capital included $519 principal balance of surplus notes outstanding and $115 liquidation preference of preferred stock outstanding. These surplus notes (including related accrued interest of $427 that is not recorded under statutory basis accounting principles); preferred stock; and all other liabilities, including insurance claims, and $146 principal balance of Tier 2 Notes are obligations that, individually and collectively, have claims on the resources of AAC that are senior to AFG's equity and therefore impede AFG's ability to realize residual value and/or receive dividends from AAC.
The significant drivers to the net decrease in policyholder surplus were surplus note repurchases at a cost of $440, contributions to contingency reserves of $28 and a decrease in the fair value of pooled investments of $16, partially offset by statutory net income of $328 for the year ended December 31, 2022. Statutory net income for the year ended December 31, 2022 was positively impacted by (i) the R&W litigation settlements at amounts in excess of our carrying value; (ii) the Puerto Rico restructuring; and (iii) AFS' repayment of its intercompany loan with AAC that was previously impaired.
AAC's statutory surplus and therefore AFG's ultimate ability to realize residual value and/or dividends from AAC is sensitive to
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multiple factors, including: (i) loss reserve development, (ii) approval by OCI of payments on surplus notes, (iii) ongoing interest costs associated with surplus notes, (iv) swap gains and losses at AFS, the financial position of which is supported by certain guarantees and financing arrangements from AAC, (v) first time payment defaults of insured obligations, which increase statutory loss reserves, (vi) commutations of insurance policies at amounts that differ from the amount of liabilities recorded, (vii) reinsurance contract terminations at amounts that differ from net assets recorded, (viii) changes to the fair value of pooled fund and other investments carried at fair value, (ix) realized gains and losses, including losses arising from other than temporary impairments of investment securities, (x) the ultimate residual value of Ambac UK, which may be impacted by numerous factors including foreign exchange rates, and (xi) future changes to prescribed practices by the OCI.
The significant differences between GAAP and SAP are that under SAP:
•Loss reserves are only established for losses on guaranteed obligations that have experienced a payment default in an amount that is sufficient to cover the present value of the anticipated defaulted debt service payments over the expected period of default, less estimated recoveries under subrogation rights (5.1% as prescribed by OCI). Under GAAP, in addition to the establishment of loss reserves for defaulted obligations, loss reserves are established (net of GAAP basis unearned premium revenue) for obligations that have experienced credit deterioration, but have not yet defaulted using a weighted-average risk-free discount rate, currently at 3.9%.
•Mandatory contingency reserves are required based upon the type of obligation insured, whereas GAAP does not require such a reserve. Releases of the contingency reserves are generally subject to OCI approval and relate to a determination that the held reserves are deemed excessive.
•Investment grade fixed maturity investments are stated at amortized cost and certain below investment grade fixed maturity investments are reported at the lower of amortized cost or fair value. Under GAAP, all fixed maturity investments are reported at fair value.
•Wholly owned subsidiaries are not consolidated; rather, the equity basis of accounting is utilized and the carrying values of these investments are subject to admissibility tests.
•Variable interest entities ("VIE") are not required to be assessed for consolidation. Under GAAP, a reporting entity that has both the following characteristics is required to consolidate the VIE: a) the power to direct the activities of the VIE that most significantly impact the VIE’s economic performance and b) the obligation to absorb losses of the VIE or the right to receive benefits from the VIE that could potentially be significant to the VIE. AAC generally has the obligation to absorb losses of VIEs that could potentially be significant to the VIE as the result of its guarantee of insured obligations issued by VIEs. For certain VIEs AAC has the power to direct the most significant activities of the VIE and accordingly consolidates the related VIEs under GAAP.
•All payments of principal and interest on the surplus notes are subject to the approval of the OCI. Unpaid interest due on the surplus notes is expensed when the approval for payment of interest has been granted by the OCI. Under GAAP, interest on surplus notes is accrued regardless of OCI approval.
•Upfront premiums written are earned on a basis proportionate to the remaining scheduled debt service to the original total principal and interest insured. Installment premiums are reflected in income pro-rata over the period covered by the premium payment. Under GAAP, premium revenues for both upfront and installment premiums are earned over the life of the financial guarantee contract in proportion to the insured principal amount outstanding at each reporting date.
•Insurance intangibles that arose as a result of the implementation of Fresh Start reporting are not a concept within SAP. This insurance intangible asset is amortized as an expense on a level yield basis over the life of the related insurance risks.
•Unearned premiums and loss reserves are presented net of ceded amounts, while under GAAP, they are reflected gross of ceded amounts.
Everspan Indemnity Insurance Company
Everspan Indemnity Insurance Company’s statutory policyholder surplus was $107 at December 31, 2022, as compared to $106 at December 31, 2021.
The significant drivers to the increase in policyholder surplus for the year ended December 31, 2022, were capital contributions of $16, primarily to support the acquisition of three admitted carriers and the growth of Everspan while maintaining a policyholders surplus in excess of $100, partially offset by a net loss and changes in investment in subsidiaries, primarily due to a limitation on the amount of goodwill that may be admitted in accordance with SAP.
The significant differences between GAAP and SAP are that under SAP:
•Investment grade fixed maturity investments are stated at amortized cost and certain below investment grade fixed maturity investments are reported at the lower of amortized cost or fair value. Under GAAP, all fixed maturity investments are reported at fair value.
•Majority owned subsidiaries are not consolidated; rather, the equity basis of accounting is utilized and the carrying values of these investments are subject to admissibility tests.
•The acquisition of Providence Washington Insurance Company ("PWIC") and the 21st Century Companies were recorded as equity method investments, which include a goodwill component representing the acquisition cost in excess of the related entity's statutory surplus. Goodwill is being amortized over ten years. Under GAAP, the acquisition of the companies were recorded as asset acquisitions, which require i) all net assets to initially be recorded at fair value, and ii) the acquisition cost in excess of the fair value of net assets to be allocated to the bases of certain types of assets based on their relative fair values, if
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applicable. Acquired assets include intangible assets with indefinite lives. Such assets are not amortized but their estimated useful lives are reevaluated each reporting period. No goodwill is recorded for asset acquisitions.
•Acquisition costs and ceding commissions, other than excess ceding commissions, are expensed or recognized at the time of a transaction. Under GAAP, acquisition costs and ceding commissions are deferred and recognized over the life of the related transaction.
•Unearned premiums and loss reserves are presented net of ceded amounts, while under GAAP, they are reflected gross of ceded amounts.
AMBAC UK FINANCIAL RESULTS UNDER UK ACCOUNTING PRINCIPLES
(£ in millions)
Ambac UK is required to prepare financial statements under FRS 102 "The Financial Reporting Standard applicable in the UK and Republic of Ireland." Ambac UK’s shareholder funds under UK GAAP were £468 at December 31, 2022, as compared to £444 at December 31, 2021. At December 31, 2022, the carrying value of cash and investments was £508, an increase from £500 at December 31, 2021. The increase in shareholder funds and cash and investments was primarily due to the continued receipt of premiums and investment income, and from foreign exchange gains within Ambac UK's investment portfolio, partially offset by loss expenses, operating expenses and tax payments.
The significant differences between US GAAP and UK GAAP are that under UK GAAP:
•Loss reserves are only established for losses on guaranteed obligations when, in the judgment of management, a monetary default in the timely payment of debt service is likely to occur, which would result in Ambac UK incurring a loss. A loss provision is established in an amount that is sufficient to cover the present value of the anticipated defaulted debt service payments over the expected period of default, less estimated recoveries under subrogation rights. The discount rate for loss provisions is equal to the lower of the rate of return on invested assets for either the current year or the period covering the current year plus the four previous years, currently at 0%. The discount rate used for estimated recoveries under subrogation rights is reflective of the credit risk of the counterparty from which subrogation will be received, currently 5.3%. Under U.S. GAAP, loss reserves are established (net of US GAAP basis unearned premium revenue) for obligations that have experienced credit deterioration, but have not yet defaulted using a weighted-average risk-free discount rate, currently at 3.5%.
•Investments in fixed maturity securities are stated at amortized cost, subject to an other-than-temporary impairment evaluation. Under US GAAP, all bonds are reported at fair value.
•VIEs are not required to be assessed for consolidation. Under US GAAP, as noted under AAC Statutory Basis Financial Results above, VIE's with certain characteristics are required to be consolidated. For several VIEs Ambac
UK has the power to direct the most significant activities of the VIE and accordingly consolidates the related VIEs under U.S. GAAP.
•Upfront premiums written are earned on a basis proportionate to the remaining scheduled debt service to the total principal and interest insured. Installment premiums are reflected in income pro-rata over the period covered by the premium payment. Under US GAAP, premium revenues for both upfront and installment premiums are earned over the life of the financial guarantee contract in proportion to the insured principal amount outstanding at each reporting date.
•Insurance intangibles that arose as a result of the implementation of Fresh Start reporting are not a concept within UK GAAP. Under US GAAP, this insurance intangible asset is amortized as an expense on a level yield basis over the life of the related insurance risks.
•Unearned premiums and loss reserves are presented net of ceded amounts, while under GAAP, they are reflected gross of ceded amounts.
Ambac UK is also required to prepare financial information in accordance with the Solvency II Directive. The basis of preparation of this information is significantly different from both US GAAP and UK GAAP.
Available and eligible capital resources under Solvency II, to meet solvency capital requirements, were £338 at December 31, 2022. This is an increase from December 31, 2021, when available capital resources were £250 of which £240 were eligible to meet solvency capital requirements. Eligible capital resources at December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, are in comparison to regulatory capital requirements of £213 and £238, respectively. Therefore, Ambac UK was in a surplus position in terms of compliance with applicable regulatory capital requirements by £125 at December 31, 2022 and was in a surplus position by £1 at December 31, 2021. The surplus increased as of December 31, 2022, due to the combined impact of (i) the increase in long term interest rates, which resulted in a decrease in technical provision liabilities and hence an increase in eligible own funds and (ii) a decrease in capital requirements for non-life risk due to the maturity and de-risking of certain policies, together with natural run-off of the insured portfolio in the year.
Dialogue between Ambac UK management and its regulators remains ongoing with respect to options for strengthening the capital position further.
Final annual Solvency II data and Ambac UK's annual Solvency and Financial Condition Report will be published on Ambac's website in April 2023.
NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
($ in millions)
In addition to reporting the Company's financial results under GAAP,the Company currently reports three non-GAAP financial measures: EBITDA, adjusted earnings and adjusted book value. The most directly comparable GAAP measures are pre-tax net income for EBITDA, net income attributable to
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common stockholders for adjusted earnings and Total Ambac Financial Group, Inc. stockholders’ equity for adjusted book value. A non-GAAP financial measure is a numerical measure of financial performance or financial position that excludes (or includes) amounts that are included in (or excluded from) the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP. We present such non-GAAP supplemental financial information because we believe such information is of interest to the investment community that provides greater transparency and enhanced visibility into the underlying drivers of our businesses on a basis that may not be otherwise apparent on a GAAP basis. We view these non-GAAP financial measures as important indicators when assessing and evaluating our performance on a segmented and consolidated basis. These non-GAAP financial measures are not substitutes for the Company’s GAAP reporting, should not be viewed in isolation and may differ from similar reporting provided by other companies, which may define non-GAAP measures differently.
Ambac has a significant U.S. tax net operating loss (“NOL”) that is offset by a full valuation allowance in the GAAP consolidated financial statements. As a result of this and other considerations, we utilized a 0% effective tax rate for non-GAAP adjustments for both Adjusted Earnings and Adjusted Book Value; which is subject to change.
The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is also presented below.
EBITDA. EBITDA is defined as net income before interest expense, income taxes, depreciation and amortization of intangible assets. EBITDA is also adjusted for noncontrolling interests in subsidiaries where Ambac does not own 100%.
| Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance | Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance | Insurance Distribution | Corporate & Other | Consolidated | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year Ended December 31, 2022 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pretax income (loss) (1) | $ | 540 | $ | (6) | $ | 5 | $ | (14) | $ | 525 | |||||||
| Adjustments: | |||||||||||||||||
| Interest expense | 168 | — | — | — | 168 | ||||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2 | — | — | — | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Amortization of intangible assets | 44 | — | 3 | — | 47 | ||||||||||||
| Net (gain) attributable to noncontrolling interest | — | (1) | (1) | ||||||||||||||
| Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization | $ | 754 | $ | (6) | $ | 6 | $ | (14) | $ | 740 | |||||||
| Year Ended December 31, 2021 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pretax income (loss) (1) | $ | 20 | $ | (8) | $ | 4 | $ | (15) | $ | 2 | |||||||
| Adjustments: | |||||||||||||||||
| Interest expense | 187 | — | — | — | 187 | ||||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2 | — | — | — | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Amortization of intangible assets | 52 | — | 3 | — | 55 | ||||||||||||
| Net (gain) attributable to noncontrolling interest | (1) | (1) | |||||||||||||||
| Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization | $ | 262 | $ | (8) | $ | 5 | $ | (15) | $ | 245 |
(1)Pretax income (loss) is prior to the impact of noncontrolling interests.
Adjusted Earnings (Loss). Adjusted earnings (loss) is defined as net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders, as reported under GAAP, adjusted on an after-tax basis for the following:
•Insurance intangible amortization: Elimination of the amortization of the financial guarantee insurance intangible asset that arose as a result of Ambac’s emergence from bankruptcy and the implementation of Fresh Start reporting. This adjustment ensures that all financial guarantee contracts are accounted for consistent with the provisions of the Financial Services – Insurance Topic of the ASC.
•Foreign exchange (gains) losses: Elimination of the foreign exchange gains (losses) on the re-measurement of assets, liabilities and transactions in non-functional currencies. This adjustment eliminates the foreign exchange gains (losses) on all assets, liabilities and transactions in non-functional currencies, which enables users of our financial statements to better view the results without the impact of fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates and facilitates period-to-period comparisons of Ambac's operating performance.
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The following table reconciles net income attributable to common stockholders to the non-GAAP measure, Adjusted Earnings on a total dollar amount and per diluted share basis, for all periods presented:
| 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ in millions, except per share data)Year Ended December 31, | $ Amount | Per Diluted Share (1) | $ Amount | Per Diluted Share (1) | $ Amount | Per Diluted Share (1) | ||||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders | $ | 522 | $ | 11.31 | $ | (17) | $ | (0.61) | $ | (437) | $ | (9.47) | ||||||||||
| Adjustments: | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Non-credit impairment fair value (gain) loss on credit derivatives | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||
| Insurance intangible amortization | 44 | 0.95 | 52 | 1.12 | 57 | 1.23 | ||||||||||||||||
| Foreign exchange (gains) losses | (12) | (0.25) | 7 | 0.15 | 3 | 0.06 | ||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted Earnings (Loss) (1) | $ | 555 | $ | 12.01 | $ | 43 | $ | 0.66 | $ | (378) | $ | (8.19) |
(1)Per Diluted share includes the impact of adjusting redeemable noncontrolling interest to its redemption value
Adjusted Book Value. Adjusted book value is defined as Total Ambac Financial Group, Inc. stockholders’ equity as reported under GAAP, adjusted for after-tax impact of the following:
•Insurance intangible asset: Elimination of the financial guarantee insurance intangible asset that arose as a result of Ambac’s emergence from bankruptcy and the implementation of Fresh Start reporting. This adjustment ensures that all financial guarantee contracts are accounted for within adjusted book value consistent with the provisions of the Financial Services—Insurance Topic of the ASC.
•Net unearned premiums and fees in excess of expected losses: Addition of the value of the unearned premium revenue ("UPR") on financial guarantee contracts, in excess of expected losses, net of reinsurance. This non-GAAP adjustment presents the economics of UPR and expected losses for financial guarantee contracts on a consistent basis. In accordance with GAAP, stockholders’ equity reflects a reduction for expected losses only to the extent
they exceed UPR. However, when expected losses are less than UPR for a financial guarantee contract, neither expected losses nor UPR have an impact on stockholders’ equity. This non-GAAP adjustment adds UPR in excess of expected losses, net of reinsurance, to stockholders’ equity for financial guarantee contracts where expected losses are less than UPR. This adjustment is only made for financial guarantee contracts since such premiums are non-refundable.
•Net unrealized investment (gains) losses in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income: Elimination of the unrealized gains and losses on the Company’s investments that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (“AOCI”). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio may differ from realized gains and losses ultimately recognized by the Company based on the Company’s investment strategy. This adjustment only allows for such gains and losses in adjusted book value when realized.
The following table reconciles Total Ambac Financial Group, Inc. stockholders’ equity to the non-GAAP measure Adjusted Book Value on a dollar amount and per share basis, for all periods presented:
| 2022 | 2021 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ in millions, except per share data) December 31, | $ Amount | Per Share | $ Amount | Per Share | ||||||||||
| Total Ambac Financial Group, Inc. stockholders’ equity | $ | 1,252 | $ | 27.85 | $ | 1,038 | $ | 22.42 | ||||||
| Adjustments: | ||||||||||||||
| Insurance intangible asset | (266) | (5.91) | (320) | (6.91) | ||||||||||
| Net unearned premiums and fees in excess of expected losses | 214 | 4.76 | 310 | 6.68 | ||||||||||
| Net unrealized investment (gains) losses in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (Loss) | 71 | 1.59 | (154) | (3.32) | ||||||||||
| Adjusted Book Value | $ | 1,272 | $ | 28.29 | $ | 874 | $ | 18.88 |
The increase in Adjusted Book was primarily attributable to Adjusted earnings for the year ended December 31, 2022 (excluding earned premium previously included in Adjusted Book Value), partially offset by translation losses on the consolidation of AFG's foreign subsidiaries.
Factors that impact changes to Adjusted Book Value include many of the same factors that impact Adjusted Earnings, including the majority of revenues and expenses, but generally exclude components of premium earnings since they are embedded in prior period's Adjusted Book Value through the net
unearned premiums and fees in excess of expected losses adjustment. Net unearned premiums and fees in excess of expected losses will affect Adjusted Book Value for (i) changes to future premium assumptions (e.g. expected term, interest rates, foreign currency rates, time passage) and (ii) changes to expected losses for policies which do not exceed their related unearned premiums and (iii) new reinsurance transactions.
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FY 2021 10-K MD&A
SEC filing source: 0000874501-22-000019.
Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
The objectives of our Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (“MD&A”) are to provide users of our consolidated financial statements with the following:
•A narrative explanation from the perspective of management of our financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, liquidity and certain other factors that may affect future results;
•Context to the consolidated financial statements; and
•Information that allows assessment of the likelihood that past performance is indicative of future performance.
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements in Item 8 of this Report and the matters described under Item 1A. Risk Factors in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021. Refer to Item 1. Business and Note 1. Background and Business Description for a description of our business and our key strategies to achieve our primary goal to maximize shareholder value.
Organization of Information
MD&A includes the following sections:
| Page | |
|---|---|
| Executive Summary | 29 |
| Critical Accounting Estimates | 32 |
| Financial Guarantees in Force | 34 |
| Results of Operations | 42 |
| Liquidity and Capital Resources | 46 |
| Balance Sheet | 48 |
| Accounting Standards | 54 |
| Ambac Assurance Statutory Basis Financial Results | 54 |
| Ambac UK Financial Results under UK Accounting Principles | 56 |
| Non-GAAP Financial Measures | 57 |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ($ in millions)
AFG
During 2021, AFG progressed the development of its specialty property and casualty program insurance business. Developments included the following:
•AFG contributed $92 of additional capital to Everspan.
•Everspan received an 'A-' Financial Strength Rating from AM Best in February 2021.
•Everspan launched its specialty insurance program business in May 2021.
•To support expansion of the admitted insurance component of its business, during 2021 Everspan entered into stock purchase agreements to acquire four insurance shell companies. Such acquisitions will enhance Everspan's capabilities to launch new admitted programs, develop innovative products and provide enhanced flexibility to foster strategic relationships with prospective program partners. On October 1, 2021, Everspan completed the acquisition of Providence Washington Insurance Company (“PWIC”) from a subsidiary of Enstar Group Limited. PWIC holds certificates of authority in forty-seven states and territories. PWIC's legacy liabilities were fully ceded to reinsurers and Everspan also benefits from an unlimited, uncapped indemnity from Enstar Holdings (US) to mitigate any residual risk to these reinsurers. On January 3, 2022, Everspan completed the acquisition of the 21st Century Companies (three carriers) from a national insurance group that has a Financial Strength Rating of “A” (Excellent) from AM Best. The 21st Century Companies collectively possess certificates of authority in thirty-nine states. All legacy liabilities remain with affiliates of the sellers through reinsurance and contractual indemnities. The 21st Century Companies will be re-named during 2022.
•During 2021, AFG made minority investments in certain insurance related businesses, including insurtech platforms, that we believe will be synergistic to our specialty property & casualty program insurance or Managing General Agency/Underwriting businesses.
•See below AAC and Subsidiaries for the various 2021 activities relating to the financial guarantee business
In addition to its focus on Xchange, AFG is actively seeking to expand the MGA/U business though additional acquisitions and development of new MGA/U companies.
Net Assets
As of December 31, 2021, net assets of AFG, excluding its equity investments in subsidiaries, were $269.
| ($ in millions) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and short-term investments | $ | 125 | |
| Other investments (1) | 130 | ||
| Other net assets | 14 | ||
| Total | $ | 269 |
(1)Includes surplus notes (fair value of $90) issued by AAC that are eliminated in consolidation.
AAC and Subsidiaries
A key strategy for Ambac is to increase the value of its investment in AAC by actively managing its assets and liabilities. Asset management primarily entails maximizing the risk-adjusted return on non-VIE invested assets and managing liquidity to help ensure resources are available to meet operational and strategic cash needs. These strategic cash needs include activities associated with Ambac's liability management and loss mitigation programs.
Asset Management
Investment portfolios are subject to internal investment guidelines, as well as limits on types and quality of investments
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imposed by insurance laws and regulations. The investment portfolios of AAC and Ambac UK hold fixed maturity securities and various pooled investment funds. Refer to Note 4. Investments to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K for further details of fixed maturity investments by asset category and pooled investment funds by investment type.
At December 31, 2021, Ambac and its subsidiaries owned $609 of distressed Ambac-insured bonds, including significant concentrations of insured Puerto Rico and RMBS bonds.
Subject to internal and regulatory guidelines, market conditions and other constraints, Ambac may continue to opportunistically purchase or sell Ambac-insured securities, surplus notes and/or other Ambac issued securities, and may consider opportunities to exchange securities issued by it from time to time for other securities issued by it.
Liability and Insured Exposure Management
AAC's Risk Management Group focuses on the implementation and execution of risk reduction, defeasance and loss recovery strategies. Analysts evaluate the estimated timing and severity of projected policy claims as well as the potential impact of loss mitigation or remediation strategies in order to target and prioritize policies, or portions thereof, for commutation, reinsurance, refinancing, restructuring or other risk reduction strategies. For targeted policies, analysts will engage with issuers, bondholders and other economic stakeholders to negotiate, structure and execute such strategies. During 2021, Ambac completed risk reduction transactions consisting of quota share reinsurance, refinancings, and commutations of $2,695, of which, quota share reinsurance represented $1,695.
The following table provides a comparison of total, adversely classified ("ACC") and watch list credit net par outstanding in the insured portfolio at December 31, 2021 and 2020. Net par exposure within the U.S. public finance market includes capital appreciation bonds which are reported at the par amount at the time of issuance of the insurance policy as opposed to the current accreted value of the bonds.
| ($ in billions) December 31, | 2021 | 2020 | Variance | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $ | 28,020 | $ | 33,888 | $ | (5,868) | (17) | % | ||||||
| ACC | $ | 6,361 | $ | 8,458 | $ | (2,097) | (25) | % | ||||||
| Watch List | $ | 3,824 | $ | 4,720 | $ | (896) | (19) | % |
The decrease in total, ACC and watch list credit net par outstanding resulted from active de-risking initiatives, as noted above, as well as scheduled maturities, amortizations, refundings and calls.
We have been paying claims for several years on most of our exposure to Puerto Rico, which consists of several different issuing entities (all below investment grade). These issuing entities, which have been part of the PROMESA restructuring process that began in 2016, each have their own credit risk profile attributable to discrete revenue sources, direct general obligation pledges, and/or general obligation guarantees.
On January 18, 2022, Judge Swain, U.S. District Court for the District of Puerto Rico, confirmed the modified Eighth
Amended Plan of Adjustment for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico ("Eighth Amended POA"). On January 20, 2022, Judge Swain approved the Qualifying Modifications for PRIFA and CCDA ("PRIFA QM" and "CCDA QM", respectively). Although the Eighth Amended POA, the PRIFA QM and CCDA QM remain subject to appeal (see Risk Factors— "Insured Portfolio Losses"), the Eighth Amended POA, PRIFA QM, and CCDA QM are expected to become effective on or before March 15, 2022. Consummation of the plan of adjustment and qualifying modifications will resolve the PROMESA restructuring process for the GO, PBA, PRIFA and CCDA issuing entities that have portions of their bonds insured by AAC. On the effective date of the Eighth Amended POA, PRIFA QM, and CCDA QM, and pursuant to bondholder elections, (i) all of the remaining outstanding AAC-insured GO and PBA bonds will be satisfied and eliminated via commutation or acceleration, and (ii) about 39% and 19% of the par of AAC's outstanding AAC-insured PRIFA and CCDA bonds, respectively, will be reduced via commutation, with the remainder of those bonds (belonging to bondholders who elected not to commute their AAC Insurance Policies) being deposited into trusts together with such policies and the bondholders' respective shares of distributed Eighth Amended POA, PRIFA QM, or CCDA QM consideration. Those bondholders participating in the trusts are expected to receive scheduled payments from the applicable trust, unless Ambac elects, in its sole discretion, to pay all or a portion of the outstanding par amounts of the AAC-insured bonds in such trust.
AAC-insured bonds of PRHTA are subject to the PRHTA POA, a separate plan of adjustment that is expected to be filed prior to March 31, 2022, with a confirmation hearing to follow later in 2022.
Refer to Part II, Item 7, Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, Financial Guarantees in Force, in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information regarding the different issuing entities that encompass Ambac's exposures to Puerto Rico.
COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic had, and to a lesser degree, continues to have, an impact on general economic conditions; including, but not limited to, higher unemployment; volatility in the capital markets; closure or severe curtailment of the operations and, hence, revenues, of many businesses and public and private enterprises to which we are directly or indirectly exposed.
COVID-19 and the public health responses by the US federal and state governments at the onset of the pandemic resulted in a shut down for several months of significant portions of the US economy, including areas that Ambac's insured obligors rely upon to generate the revenues and cash flows necessary to service debts we insure. In the U.S. and Europe, where most of Ambac's financial guaranty exposure is located, significant fiscal stimulus measures, monetary policy actions and other relief measures helped to moderate the negative economic impacts of COVID-19 and supported the economic recovery which began in the second half of 2020 and continues into 2022. As of December 31, 2021, there have been no defaults of Ambac-insured obligations as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Despite the significant overall benefit of the above relief measures, which were designed to help mitigate the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic generally, certain of these measures may still adversely affect Ambac's insured portfolio. In particular, this includes the U.S. government's temporary relief measures that required mortgage loan servicers to offer relief to borrowers who suffer hardship as a result of COVID-19. These relief measures included moratoriums on foreclosures and evictions as well as the expansion of forbearance and subsequent repayment options. While these relief measures have largely since expired, the resulting delays in starting mortgage foreclosure processes and the impact of potential post-forbearance related mortgage loan modifications may have an adverse impact on our insured RMBS transactions. Consequently, we have anticipated that we will experience an increase in claim payments for certain of our insured RMBS obligations following the resumption of foreclosure activity and the implementation of post-forbearance mortgage loan modifications. However, since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of the potential increase in claim experience has been offset by the benefit to excess spread within the securitization structures as a result of the reduction in interest rates, which is expected to result in higher excess spread recoveries to Ambac.
The impact from the COVID-19 pandemic on Ambac also includes the ability of our counterparties to pay their obligations when due, most notably AAC's reinsurers for their portion of future financial guaranty claim payments. Ambac has reinsured approximately 17.9% of its gross par outstanding to five reinsurance counterparties. Each of these reinsurance counterparties (i) is experienced in the business of reinsuring and/or writing financial guaranty insurance and (ii) have current ratings of A+ (by S&P) or better and have collateralization or replacement triggers upon downgrade within Ambac's reinsurance agreements. Ambac actively monitors each of these reinsurance entities and currently believes they have the ability to perform under their respective reinsurance policies, but this is subject to change.
Given the economic uncertainties associated with the duration and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is impossible to fully predict all of its consequences and, as a result, it is possible that our future operating results and financial condition may be materially adversely affected. Refer to "Financial Guarantees In Force," "Results of Operations" and "Balance Sheet Commentary" for further financial details on the current impact from COVID-19.
With regard to Ambac's new business strategic objective, we continue to evaluate opportunities in a disciplined manner. Our evaluation process incorporates the perceived impact of COVID-19 on historical and prospective business results.
Financial Statement Impact of Foreign Currency
The impact of foreign currency as reported in Ambac's Consolidated Statement of Total Comprehensive Income (Loss) for the year ended December 31, 2021 included the following:
| ($ in millions) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Net income (1) | $ | (7) | |
| Gain (losses) on foreign currency translation (net of tax) | (8) | ||
| Unrealized gains (losses) on non-functional currency available-for-sale securities (net of tax) | 3 | ||
| Impact on total comprehensive income (loss) | $ | (12) |
(1) A portion of Ambac UK's, and to a lesser extent AAC's, assets and liabilities are denominated in currencies other than its functional currency and accordingly, we recognized net foreign currency transaction gains/(losses) as a result of changes to foreign currency rates through our Consolidated Statement of Total Comprehensive Income (Loss). Refer to Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report in Form 10-K for further details on transaction gains and losses.
Future changes to currency rates, may adversely affect our financial results. Refer to Part II, Item 7A "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk" for further information on the impact of future currency rate changes on Ambac's financial instruments.
LIBOR Sunset
In July 2017, the Financial Conduct Authority, the authority that regulates LIBOR, announced its intention to stop compelling banks to submit rates for the calculation of LIBOR after 2021. The Alternative Reference Rates Committee (‘ARRC’), a group of private-market participants convened by the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to help ensure a successful transition from U.S. dollar LIBOR (‘USD-LIBOR’) to a more robust reference rate, proposed that the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (‘SOFR’) represents the best alternative to USD-LIBOR for use in derivatives and other financial contracts that are currently indexed to USD-LIBOR. ARRC has proposed a transition plan with specific steps and timelines designed to encourage the adoption of SOFR and guide the transition to SOFR from USD-LIBOR. The Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom and other regulatory bodies have issued statements encouraging cessation of new transactions referencing USD LIBOR after December 31, 2021, while supporting extension of the publication of major USD-LIBOR tenors to mid-2023 to allow additional legacy contracts to mature on their existing terms. Organizations are currently working on industry-wide and company-specific transition plans related to derivatives and cash markets exposed to USD-LIBOR.
After December 31, 2021, banks ceased publishing most GBP-LIBOR rates. In response, in October 2021, noteholders of obligations linked to GBP-LIBOR and insured by Ambac UK consented to the replacement of GBP-LIBOR references with compounded Sterling Overnight Index Average ("SONIA") plus a credit adjustment spread effective on the first interest payment date in 2022. Ambac therefore no longer insures any obligations linked to Non-USD LIBOR.
As of December 31, 2021, the Company has exposure to LIBOR in the following areas: (i) the financial guarantee insured portfolio, (ii) the Sitka AAC Note (as defined in Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K) included in long-term debt, (iii) certain invested assets and interest rate derivatives.
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Ambac has reviewed its financial guarantee portfolio to identify insured transactions that it believes may be impacted by the transition from LIBOR. The review focused on insured issues that were scheduled or projected to have an outstanding principal balance as of December 31, 2021. The Company reviewed the governing documents' provisions for the setting of interest rates in the event LIBOR is unavailable ("fallback language"). The Company has initiated a dialogue with relevant trustees, calculation agents, auction agents, servicers and other parties responsible for implementing the rate change in these transactions. Most have not yet committed to specific courses of action, but the passage of legislation in New York State and the expectation that similar federal legislation will be enacted should facilitate greater clarity for those transactions that do not have clear fallback language.
The Sitka AAC Note is referenced to 3-month USD-LIBOR and has a final maturity of July 6, 2026. The Sitka AAC Note includes specific fallback language that addresses both the calculation of interest using a replacement reference rate to 3-month USD-LIBOR and the circumstances that would trigger use of the replacement rate.
Ambac's investment and derivative portfolios have been evaluated to assess the risk of LIBOR unavailability based on the respective instruments' fallback language and parties responsible for implementing the alternative rates. Investments that are Ambac-insured securities are being addressed through efforts on the financial guarantee portfolio described above. For other investments, we are working with our investment managers to ensure LIBOR indexed positions in our portfolio contain unambiguous fallback language or will be governed by relevant legislation. Ambac's centrally cleared interest rate swaps are expected to follow LIBOR transition steps outlined by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. ("ISDA"). Our non-cleared interest rate swaps are all governed by New York law and either have offsetting LIBOR exposure with a single counterparty that serves as calculation agent responsible for rate changes or have Ambac as the calculation agent.
Given the uncertainty of the ultimate timing of the LIBOR sunset, as well as the lack of clarity on decisions that parties responsible for calculating interest rates will make and the reaction of impacted parties as well as the unknown level of interest rates when the change occurs, the Company cannot at this time predict the impact of the discontinuance of LIBOR, if it occurs, on every obligation the Company guarantees or on its other LIBOR indexed financial instruments. For more information, see the the risk factor "Uncertainties regarding the expected discontinuance of the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate or any other interest rate benchmark could have adverse consequences" found in Part I, Item 1A of this Form 10-K.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES AND ESTIMATES
Ambac's Consolidated Financial Statements have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. This section highlights accounting estimates management views as critical because they are most important to the portrayal of the Company's financial condition; and require management to make difficult and subjective
judgments regarding matters that are inherently uncertain and subject to change. These estimates are evaluated on an on-going basis considering historical developments, political events, market conditions, industry trends and other information. There can be no assurance that actual results will conform to estimates and that reported results of operations will not be materially adversely affected by the need to make future accounting adjustments to reflect changes in these estimates from time to time.
Management has identified the following critical accounting policies and estimates: (i) valuation of financial guarantee loss and loss expense reserves, (ii) valuation of certain financial instruments and (iii) valuation of deferred tax assets. Management has discussed each of these critical accounting policies and estimates with the Audit Committee, including the reasons why they are considered critical and how current and anticipated future events impact those determinations. Additional information about these policies can be found in Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K.
Valuation of Financial Guarantee Losses and Loss Expense Reserves (including Subrogation Recoverables)
The loss and loss expense reserves and subrogation recoverable assets (collectively defined as "loss reserves") discussed in this section relate only to Ambac’s non-derivative financial guarantee insurance policies issued to beneficiaries, including unconsolidated VIEs. A loss reserve is recorded on the balance sheet on a policy-by-policy basis at the present value ("PV") of expected net claim cash outflows or expected net recovery cash inflows, discounted at risk-free rates. The estimate for future net cash flows consider the likelihood of all possible outcomes that may occur from missed principal and/or interest payments on the insured obligation. This estimate also considers future recoveries related to breaches of contractual representations and warranties by RMBS transaction sponsors, remediation strategies, excess spread and other contractual or subrogation-related cash flows. Ambac’s approach to resolving disputes involving contractual breaches by transaction sponsors or other third parties has included negotiations and/or pursuing litigation. Ambac does not estimate recoveries for litigations where its sole claim is for fraudulent inducement, since any remedies under such claims would be non-contractual. Nor does Ambac include potential recoveries attributable to pre-judgment interest in the estimate of subrogation recoveries.
The evaluation process for expected future net cash flows is subject to certain estimates and judgments regarding the probability of default by the issuer of the insured security, probability of negotiation or settlement outcomes (which may include commutation, litigation and other settlements, and/or a refinancing), probability of a restructuring outcome (which may include payment moratoriums, debt haircuts and/or subsequent recoveries) and the expected loss severity of credits for each insurance contract.
As the probability of default for an individual credit increases and/or the severity of loss given a default increases, our loss reserve for that insured obligation will also increase. Political,
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economic, credit or other unforeseen events could have an adverse impact on default probabilities and loss severities. The loss reserves for many transactions are derived from the issuer’s creditworthiness. For public finance issuers, loss reserves will consider not only creditworthiness but also political dynamics and economic status and prospects. The loss reserves for transactions which have no direct issuer support, such as most structured finance exposures, including RMBS and student loan exposures, are derived from the default activity and the estimated loss given default of the underlying collateral supporting the transactions. In addition, many transactions have a combination of issuer/entity and collateral support. Loss reserves reflect our assessment of the transaction’s overall structure, support and expected performance. Loss reserve volatility will be a direct result of the credit performance of our insured portfolio, including the number, size, bond types and quality of credits included in our loss reserves; our ability to execute workout strategies and commutations; economic and market conditions; and management's judgments with regards to the current performance and future developments within the insured portfolio. The number and severity of credits included in our loss reserves depend to a large extent on transaction specific attributes, but will generally increase during periods of economic stress and decline during periods of economic prosperity. Reinsurance contracts mitigate our loss reserves but since Ambac currently has minimal exposure ceded to reinsurers on credits with loss reserves, the existing reinsurance contracts are unlikely to have a significant effect on loss reserve volatility. Loss reserve volatility will also be materially impacted by changes in interest rates from period to period.
The table below indicates the gross par outstanding and gross loss reserves (including loss expenses) related to policies in Ambac’s Financial Guarantee loss and loss expense reserves at December 31, 2021 and 2020:
| Gross ParOutstanding(1) (2) | Gross Loss and Loss ExpenseReserves(1) (3) (4) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2021 | |||||
| Structured Finance | 2,371 | (1,178) | |||
| Domestic Public Finance | 2,742 | 562 | |||
| Other | 1,189 | 17 | |||
| Loss expenses | — | 45 | |||
| Totals | 6,302 | (554) | |||
| December 31, 2020 | |||||
| Structured Finance | 2,945 | (1,212) | |||
| Domestic Public Finance | 3,016 | 724 | |||
| Other | 1,612 | 23 | |||
| Loss expenses | — | 68 | |||
| Totals | 7,573 | (397) |
(1) Ceded par outstanding on policies with loss reserves and ceded loss and loss expense reserves are $784 and $24 respectively, at December 31, 2021, and $739 and $33, respectively at December 31, 2020. Ceded loss and loss expense reserves are included in Reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses.
(2) Gross Par Outstanding includes capital appreciation bonds, which are reported at the par amount at the time of issuance of the insurance policy as opposed to the current accreted value of the bond.
(3) Loss and Loss Expense reserves at December 31, 2021, of $(554) are included in the balance sheet in the following line items: Loss and loss expense reserves: $1,538 and Subrogation recoverable: (2,092). Loss and Loss Expense reserves at December 31, 2020, of $(397) are included in the balance sheet in the following line items: Loss and loss expense reserves: $1,759 and Subrogation recoverable: $2,156.
(4) Ambac records as a component of its loss and loss expense reserves, estimated recoveries related to securitized loans in RMBS transactions that breached certain representations and warranties. Ambac has recorded gross estimated recoveries of $1,730 and $1,751 at December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively.
See Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K for a description of the cash flow and statistical methodologies used to develop loss reserves. The majority of our large loss reserves utilize the cash flow method of reserving. Various cash flow scenarios are developed to represent the range of possible outcomes and resultant future claim payments and timing. Scenarios and probabilities of each are adjusted regularly to reflect changes in status, outlook and our analysis and views. Significant judgment is used to develop the cash flow assumptions and related probabilities, and there can be no certainty that the scenarios or probabilities will not deviate materially from ultimate outcomes.
•In some cases, such as RMBS and student loans, cash flow projections include the modeling of an issuer or transaction’s future revenues and expenses to determine the resources available to pay debt service on our insured obligations. Key assumptions impacting RMBS cash flow models include projected home price appreciation and interest rates A component of our RMBS loss reserve estimate includes subrogation recoveries related to securitized loans in such transactions that breached certain representations and warranties ("R&W"). Key assumptions impacting student loan cash flow models include projected loan defaults, recoveries and interest rates.
•In other cases, such as many public finance exposures, we consider the issuer's overall ability and willingness to pay as it relates to the existing fiscal, economic, legal, restructuring and/or political framework relevant to a particular exposure or group of exposures. We then develop multiple scenarios where issuer debt service is paid, missed and/or haircut with claims paid then modeled for any recovery amount (and potential variability of the recovery amount) and timing. There is no certainty our assumptions as to scenarios or probabilities will not be subject to material changes as developments occur.
•In estimating loss reserves, we also incorporate scenarios which represent the potential outcome of remediation strategies. Remediation scenarios may include (i) a potential refinancing of the transaction by the issuer; (ii) the issuer’s ability to redeem outstanding securities at a discount, thereby increasing the structure’s ability to absorb future losses; and (iii) our ability to terminate, restructure or commute the policy in whole or in part. The remediation scenarios and the related probabilities of occurrence vary by policy depending on ongoing and expected discussions and negotiations with issuers and/or investors. In addition to commutation negotiations that are underway with various counterparties in various forms, our reserve
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estimates may also include scenarios which incorporate our ability and/or expectation to commute additional exposure with other counterparties.
Valuation of Certain Financial Instruments
The Fair Value Measurement Topic of the ASC requires financial instruments to be classified within a three-level fair value hierarchy. The fair value hierarchy, the financial instruments classified within each level, our valuation methods, inputs, assumptions and the review and validation procedures over quoted and modeled pricing are further detailed in Note 5. Fair Value Measurements to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K.
The level of judgment in estimating fair value is largely dependent on the amount of observable market information available to fair value a financial instrument, which is also determinative of where the financial instrument is classified in the fair value hierarchy. Level 3 instruments are valued using models which use one or more significant inputs or value drivers that are unobservable and therefore require significant judgment. Level 3 financial instruments which are material include certain invested assets, uncollateralized interest rate swaps and investments and loan receivables of consolidated VIEs. Model-derived valuations of Level 3 financial instruments incorporate estimates of the effects of Ambac's own credit risk and/or counterparty credit risk, which can be complex and judgmental. Furthermore, Level 3 investments and loan receivables of consolidated VIEs incorporate estimates of Ambac's financial guarantee cash flows, including future premiums and losses. Such cash flow estimates require judgments regarding prepayments of VIE debt, loss probabilities and loss severities, all of which are inherently uncertain.
All models and related assumptions are continuously re-evaluated by management and enhanced, as appropriate, based on improvements in information and modeling techniques. The re-evaluation process includes a quarterly meeting of senior Finance personnel to review and approve changes to models and key assumptions.
As a result of the significant judgment for the above-described instruments, the actual trade value of the financial instrument in the market, or exit value of the financial instrument owned by Ambac, may be significantly different from its recorded fair value.
Valuation of Deferred Tax Assets
Our provision for taxes is based on our income, statutory tax rates and tax planning opportunities available to us in the jurisdictions in which we operate. Tax laws are complex and subject to different interpretations by the taxpayer and respective governmental taxing authorities. Significant judgment is required in determining our tax expense and in evaluating our tax positions. We review our tax positions quarterly and adjust the balances as new information becomes available. Deferred tax assets arise because of temporary differences between the financial reporting and tax bases of assets and liabilities, as well as from net operating loss ("NOL"). More specifically, deferred tax assets represent a future tax benefit that results from losses recorded under GAAP in a current period which are only
deductible for tax purposes in future periods and NOL carry forwards.
Valuation allowances are established to reduce deferred tax assets to an amount that “more likely than not” will be realized. On a quarterly basis, management identifies and considers all available evidence, both positive and negative, in making the determination with significant weight given to evidence that can be objectively verified. Positive evidence includes removal of the going concern independent auditor opinion in 2018, the Segregated Account's February 12, 2018 exit from rehabilitation, Everspan's receipt of an 'A-'' Financial Strength Rating from AM Best, the launch of a specialty program property and casualty insurance business, and AFG's acquisition of a majority interest in an MGA/U business. Negative evidence includes the potential for unrecognized future insurance tax losses; cumulative pre-tax losses in recent years; uncertainty regarding timing and magnitude of RMBS R&W litigation recoveries; and no new financial guarantee business.
The level of deferred tax asset recognition is influenced by management’s assessment of future expected taxable income, which depends on the existence of sufficient taxable income within the carry forward periods available under the tax law. As a result of the above-described risks and uncertainties associated with future operating results, management believes it is more likely than not that the Company will not generate sufficient taxable income to recover the U.S. federal deferred tax asset and therefore has a full valuation allowance. To the extent such risks and uncertainties are resolved, Ambac may have the ability to establish a history of making reliable estimates of future income which could ultimately result in a reduction to the deferred tax asset valuation allowance. See Note 16. Income Taxes to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K for additional information on the Company's deferred income taxes.
FINANCIAL GUARANTEES IN FORCE
($ in millions)
Financial guarantee products were sold in three principal markets: U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and international finance. The following table provides a breakdown of guaranteed net par outstanding by market at December 31, 2021 and 2020. Net par exposures within the U.S. public finance market include capital appreciation bonds which are reported at the par amount at the time of issuance of the insurance policy as opposed to the current accreted value of the bonds. Guaranteed net par outstanding includes the exposures of policies insuring variable interest entities (“VIEs”) consolidated in accordance with the Consolidation Topic of the ASC. Guaranteed net par outstanding excludes the exposures of policies that insure bonds which have been refunded or pre-refunded and excludes exposure of the policies insuring the Sitka Senior Secured Notes and LSNI Secured Notes as defined in Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K.
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| December 31, | 2021 | 2020 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Finance (1) (2) | $ | 12,360 | $ | 15,497 | ||
| Structured Finance | 4,904 | 6,337 | ||||
| International Finance | 10,756 | 12,054 | ||||
| Total net par outstanding | $ | 28,020 | $ | 33,888 |
(1) Includes $5,490 and $5,575 of Military Housing net par outstanding at December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively.
(2) Includes $1,054 and $1,070 of Puerto Rico net par outstanding at December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively.
Below we will discuss the significant exposures in our insured portfolio relating to each of the three markets. See Note 6. Financial Guarantees in Force to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K for exposures by bond type.
U.S. Public Finance Insured Portfolio
Ambac’s portfolio of U.S. public finance exposures is $12,360 in net par outstanding, representing 44% of Ambac’s net par outstanding as of December 31, 2021, and a 20% reduction from the amount outstanding at December 31, 2020. This reduction in exposure was due to additional reinsurance acquired, restructuring transactions, scheduled paydowns, and early terminations (calls, refundings and pre-refundings). While Ambac’s U.S. public finance portfolio consists predominantly of municipal bonds such as general obligation, revenue, and lease and tax-backed obligations of state and local government entities, the portfolio also includes several non-municipal types of bonds, such as financings for not-for-profit entities and transactions with public and private elements, which generally finance infrastructure, housing and other public interests.
Municipal bonds are generally supported directly or indirectly by the issuer’s taxing authority or by public sector fees and assessments which may or may not be specifically pledged. Risk factors in these transactions derive from the municipal issuer, including its fiscal management, politics, and economic position, as well as its ability and willingness to continue to pay its debt service. Municipal bankruptcies and similar proceedings, while still relatively uncommon, have occurred, exposing Ambac to the risk of liquidity claims and ultimate losses if issuers cannot successfully adjust their liabilities without impairing creditors.
Public/private transactions are generally structured to achieve their targeted public interest objective without direct support from the public sector. Some examples of this type of financing include affordable housing, private education, privatized military housing and student housing. Protections within these financings provided to Ambac usually include the strength of the financed asset’s essentiality and public purpose and may include financial covenants, collateral and control rights. Risk factors include financial underperformance, event risk and a shift in the asset’s mission or essentiality. One example of this type of financing is U.S. military housing.
•Ambac insures approximately $5,490 net par of privatized military housing debt. The debt was issued to finance the construction and/or renovation of housing units for military personnel and their families on domestic U.S. military bases. Debt service is not directly paid or guaranteed by the U.S. Government. Rather, the bonds are serviced from the
cash flow generated in most cases by rental payments deposited by the military directly into lockbox accounts as part of each service personnel’s Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH). In typically small percentages, rental payments can also come from civilians, including retired service personnel and US Department of Defense contractors living on a particular base. Collateral for these transactions includes the BAH payments as well as an interest in the ground lease. Risk factors affecting these transactions include ongoing base essentiality, military deployments, the U.S. government’s commitment to fund the BAH, marketability/attractiveness of the on-base housing units versus off-base housing, construction completion, environmental remediation, utility and other operating costs and housing management. Ambac's exposure to privatized military housing debt is a growing concentration given the long-dated maturity profile of the exposure relative to faster run-off of other parts of Ambac's insured portfolio. As of December 31, 2021, privatized military housing represented approximately 20% of net par outstanding.
U.S. Structured Finance Portfolio
Ambac’s portfolio of U.S. structured finance exposures is $4,904 in net par outstanding, representing 18% of Ambac’s net par outstanding as of December 31, 2021, and a 23% reduction from the amount outstanding at December 31, 2020. This reduction in exposure was primarily related to (i) residential mortgage-backed securities ("RMBS") policies, which continued to prepay as well as incur claims and (ii) quota share reinsurance of a structured insurance credit.
Current insured exposures primarily include securitizations of mortgage loans, home equity loans and student loans, in each case where the majority of the underlying collateral risk is situated in the United States. At December 31, 2021, RMBS represented approximately 10% of net par outstanding.
Structured finance securitization exposures generally entail three forms of risk: (i) asset risk, which relates to the amount and quality of the underlying assets; (ii) structural risk, which relates to the extent to which the transaction’s legal structure and credit support provide protection from loss; and (iii) servicer risk, which is the risk that poor performance at the servicer or manager level contributes to a decline in cash flow available to the transaction. AAC seeks to mitigate and manage these risks through its risk management practices.
International Finance Insured Portfolio
Ambac’s portfolio of international finance insured exposures is $10,756 in net par outstanding, representing 38% of Ambac’s net par outstanding as of December 31, 2021, and a 11% reduction from the amount outstanding at December 31, 2020. This reduction in exposure was primarily the result of scheduled maturities within investor-owned utilities, commutations and a strengthening of the US dollar versus the British pound and the Euro. Ambac’s international finance insured exposures include a wide array of obligations in the international markets, including infrastructure financings, utility obligations, whole business securitizations (e.g., securitizations of substantially all of the operating assets of a corporation) and sub-sovereign credits. At December 31, 2021, sub-sovereign and investor-owned and
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public utilities represented approximately 18% and 12% of net par outstanding, respectively. Ambac has no insured exposure related to emerging markets.
When underwriting transactions in the international markets, Ambac considered the specific risks related to the particular country and region that could impact the credit of the issuer. These risks include the legal and political environment, capital markets dynamics, foreign exchange issues and the degree of governmental support. Ambac continues to assess these risks through its ongoing risk management.
Ambac UK, which is regulated in the United Kingdom (“UK”), had been AAC’s primary vehicle for directly issuing financial guarantee policies in the UK and the European Union with $10,292 net par outstanding at December 31, 2021. The
portfolio of insured exposures underwritten by Ambac UK is financially supported exclusively by the assets of Ambac UK and no capital support arrangements are in place with any other Ambac affiliate.
Ambac's international net par exposures are principally in the United Kingdom ($9,255); however, we also have exposures with credit risk based in various EU member states, including Austria, France, Germany and Italy ($1,284). Italy, with net par exposure of $718 in particular has experienced economic, fiscal and political strains since the 2008 global financial crisis such that the likelihood of default on an insured sub-sovereign obligation in that country is higher than when the policy was underwritten. Ambac does not guarantee any sovereign bonds of the above EU countries.
Largest Insured Exposures:
The table below shows Ambac’s ten largest exposures, by repayment source, as a percentage of total financial guarantee net par outstanding at December 31, 2021 (in millions):
| Risk Name | Country-Bond Type | AmbacRatings (1) | Ultimate Maturity Year | Net ParOutstanding | % of TotalNet ParOutstanding | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IF | AUK | Capital Hospitals plc (2) | UK-Infrastructure | A- | 2046 | 925 | 3.3 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | Anglian Water | UK-Utility | A- | 2035 | 905 | 3.2 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | Mitchells & Butlers Finance plc-UK Pub Securitisation | UK-Asset Securitizations | BBB | 2033 | $ | 892 | 3.2 | % | |||||||
| IF | AUK | Aspire Defence Finance plc | UK-Infrastructure | A- | 2040 | 836 | 3.0 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | National Grid Gas | UK-Utility | BBB+ | 2037 | 835 | 3.0 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | Posillipo Finance II S.r.l | Italy-Sub-Sovereign | BIG | 2035 | 661 | 2.4 | % | ||||||||
| PF | AAC | New Jersey Transportation Trust Fund Authority - Transportation System | US-Lease and Tax-backed Revenue | BBB- | 2036 | 623 | 2.2 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | National Grid Electricity Transmission | UK-Utility | BBB+ | 2036 | 557 | 2.0 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | RMPA Services plc | UK-Infrastructure | BBB+ | 2038 | 550 | 2.0 | % | ||||||||
| IF | AUK | Catalyst Healthcare (Manchester) Financing plc (2) | UK-Infrastructure | BBB- | 2040 | 541 | 1.9 | % | ||||||||
| Total | $ | 7,325 | 26.2 | % | ||||||||||||
| PF = Public Finance, SF = Structured Finance, IF = International FinanceAAC = Ambac Assurance, AUK = Ambac UK |
(1)Internal credit ratings are provided solely to indicate the underlying credit quality of guaranteed obligations based on the view of Ambac. In cases where Ambac has insured multiple tranches of an issue with varying internal ratings, or more than one obligation of an issuer with varying internal ratings, a weighted average rating is used. Ambac credit ratings are subject to revision at any time and do not constitute investment advice. BIG denotes credits deemed below investment grade.
(2)A portion of this transaction is insured by an insurance policy issued by AAC. AAC has issued a policy for this transaction that will only pay in the event that Ambac UK does not pay under its insurance policies (“second to pay policy")
Net par related to the top ten exposures reduced $394 from December 31, 2020. Exposures are impacted by changes in foreign exchange rates, certain indexation rates, scheduled and unscheduled paydowns and the purchase of quota share reinsurance. As a result of recent increases in inflation, such indexation exposures have increased at a faster pace than they have historically.
The concentration of net par amongst the top ten (as a percentage of net par outstanding) increased slightly to 26.2% at December 31, 2021 from 22.9% at December 31, 2020. National Grid Gas had an Ambac rating downgrade since December 31, 2020, Excluding the top ten exposures, the remaining insured portfolio of financial guarantees has an average net par outstanding of $32 per single risk, with insured
exposures ranging up to $455 and a median net par outstanding of $5.
Given that Ambac has not written any new insurance policies since 2008, the risk exists that the insured portfolio becomes increasingly concentrated to large and/or below investment grade exposures.
Puerto Rico
We continue to experience stress in our exposure to Puerto Rico (the "Commonwealth") that consists of several different issuing entities (all below investment grade) with total net par exposure of $1,054 as of December 31, 2021. Each issuing entity has its own credit risk profile attributable to, as applicable, discrete revenue sources, direct general obligation pledges and/or general
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obligation guarantees. Refer to Part I, Item 1 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information regarding the different issuing entities that encompass Ambac's exposures to Puerto Rico.
Commonwealth Plan of Adjustment (Title III Case)
On November 3, 2021, the Financial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto Rico ("Oversight Board"), as representative of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the Puerto Rico Public Buildings Authority, and the Employees Retirement System of the Government of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, filed the Eighth Amended Title III Joint Plan of Adjustment of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, et al. ("Eighth Amended POA"). The Eighth Amended POA proposed to restructure approximately $33,000 of debt across various Commonwealth instrumentalities, including obligations insured by AAC, and approximately $50,000 in pension obligations.
The Eighth Amended POA, among other things, incorporated the settlement reflected in the PRIFA Related Plan Support Agreement (“PRIFA PSA”) that was signed on July 27, 2021, by the Oversight Board, as representative of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, AAC, FGIC, and other holders of bonds issued by PRIFA. The Eighth Amended POA also incorporated the settlements reflected in the PRHTA/CCDA Related Plan Support Agreement (“PRHTA/CCDA PSA”) dated May 5, 2021, and the Amended and Restated Plan Support Agreement with the Oversight Board, as representative of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, PBA, and the Employee Retirement System of the Government of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico ("Amended and Restated GO / PBA PSA") dated as of July 12, 2021. The plan consideration to be made available to creditors under these plan support agreements is described below.
A hearing to confirm the Commonwealth’s plan of adjustment was held over several days between November 8, 2021. On January 10, 2022, Judge Laura Taylor Swain, U.S. District Court for the District of Puerto Rico, entered an order requesting certain changes to the Eighth Amended POA and related materials. None of the requested changes would substantively impact the contemplated recovery to Ambac and holders of AAC-insured bonds under the Eighth Amended POA. The Oversight Board filed a revised version of the plan and corresponding materials shortly thereafter. On January 18, 2022, Judge Swain confirmed the Eighth Amended POA. The Eighth Amended POA, together with the qualifying modifications for PRIFA and CCDA discussed below, are expected to have an effective date on before March 15, 2022. Certain parties have appealed from the order confirming the Eighth Amended POA and have sought a stay pending this appeal; if the stay is granted, the effective date may be delayed.
The successful consummation of the Eighth Amended POA and qualifying modifications for PRIFA and CCDA on the effective date will represent a significant step towards resolution of AAC's remaining Puerto Rico exposure.
PRIFA/CCDA Qualifying Modifications (Title VI Cases)
The PRIFA PSA and PRHTA/CCDA PSA contain provisions requiring the parties thereto to support the terms of Title VI
Qualifying Modifications for PRIFA and CCDA. On October 8, 2021, the Oversight Board commenced Title VI proceedings and filed applications for approval of the proposed PRIFA Qualifying Modification ("PRIFA QM") and CCDA Qualifying Modification ("CCDA QM"). The PRIFA QM and CCDA QM proposed to restructure about $1,900 and $384 of debt, respectively, including obligations insured by AAC.
The hearing to consider approval of the PRIFA QM and the CCDA QM was held contemporaneously with the confirmation hearing in the Commonwealth’s Title III proceedings in November 2021. On January 20, 2022, Judge Swain approved the PRIFA QM and CCDA QM. The PRIFA QM and CCDA QM will share the same effective date as the Eighth Amended POA, which is expected to occur on or prior to March 15, 2022. As discussed above, this date may be delayed if a stay is granted pending the appeal of the Eighth Amended POA.
PRHTA Plan of Adjustment (Title III Case)
The Oversight Board, as Title III representative of the Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority ("PRHTA"), is expected to file a Title III Plan of Adjustment for PRHTA ("PRHTA POA") prior to March 31, 2022. A confirmation hearing for the PRHTA POA is expected to follow later in 2022.
Bondholder Elections: GO, PBA, PRIFA, and CCDA
As outlined in the Election Notice for Ambac Bond Holders with Claims in Class 19 (the “GO Election Notice”) and the Election Notice for Ambac Bond Holders with Claims in Classes 4 and 26 (the “PBA Election Notice”), GO and PBA bondholders were each permitted to choose between two different treatment options for the satisfaction of their claims. The first option allows the bondholders to elect commutation of their insurance policies (the “Ambac Insurance Policies”). Under this option, bondholders will receive: 1) their respective shares of certain consideration available under the Commonwealth Plan, and 2) cash from Ambac. Ambac’s obligations to the bondholders under the Ambac Insurance Policies who elected this option will be deemed fully satisfied. Under the second option, bondholders who failed to elect commutation will receive payment, in cash, of the outstanding principal amount of the bondholders’ insured bonds plus the accrued and unpaid interest thereon as of the effective date (the “Ambac Acceleration Price.”), as adjusted for any payments already made by Ambac on account of the applicable Ambac Insurance Policies. Pursuant to this option, bondholders will receive the Ambac Acceleration Price in full and final discharge of Ambac’s obligations under the Ambac Insurance Policies.
As outlined in the Election Notice for Holders of Ambac Insured PRIFA Bond Claims in Connection with Certain Capital Appreciation Bonds (the “PRIFA CABs Election Notice”), the Election Notice for Holders of Ambac Insured PRIFA Bond Claims in Connection with Certain Current Interest Bonds (the “PRIFA CIBs Election Notice”), and the Election Notice for Holders of Ambac Insured CCDA Bond Claims (the “CCDA Election Notice”), PRIFA and CCDA bondholders were each permitted to choose between two different treatment options for the satisfaction of their claims. The first option allows the bondholders to elect commutation of their Ambac Insurance Policies. Under the first option, bondholders will receive: 1) their respective shares of certain consideration available under
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the Commonwealth Plan and the PRIFA QM, or CCDA QM, as applicable and 2) cash from Ambac. Bondholders who elected this option will receive this consideration in full and final discharge of Ambac’s obligations under the Ambac Insurance Policies. Under the second option, the bondholders’ respective shares of consideration available under the Commonwealth Plan and the PRIFA QM, or CCDA QM, as applicable, will be deposited into a trust. Those bondholders are expected to receive scheduled payments from this trust, unless Ambac elects, in its sole discretion, to pay all or a portion of the outstanding par amounts of the Ambac-insured bonds in such trust. The accelerated payments will satisfy Ambac's obligations under the applicable Ambac Insurance Policies. On the plan effective date, about 39% and 19% of the outstanding par of the Ambac-insured PRIFA and CCDA bonds, respectively, will be commuted with the remainder deposited into the trusts.
Plan Support Agreements
PRIFA PSA
The PRIFA PSA reflects a July 14, 2021, agreement between the Oversight Board, AAC and FGIC to resolve claims related to bonds issued by PRIFA. Under the PRIFA PSA, PRIFA creditors will receive, on account of approximately $1,900 of allowed claims arising from PRIFA bonds, consideration in the form of (i) $193.5 cash and (ii) a contingent value instrument ("CVI") premised on outperformance of general fund rum tax collections relative to the certified 2021 Commonwealth Fiscal Plan's projections (the "Rum Tax CVI"). The Rum Tax CVI is subject to a lifetime nominal cap of about $1,300, and is also subject to various permitted rum tax waterfall deductions and caps on distributions, including the lesser of (a) 40% of cumulative outperformance (net of waterfall deductions), starting on July 1, 2021, less Rum Tax CVI payments made to PRIFA creditors in previous years, (b) 50% of annual rum tax outperformance (net of waterfall deductions), and (c) $30 annually. The Rum Tax CVI will be deposited into a master trust (the "CVI Master Trust") and into a sub trust (the "PRIFA CVI Sub Trust") within the CVI Master Trust for the benefit of PRIFA bondholders (the "PRIFA Trust"); the PRIFA CVI Sub Trust will also be funded with a share (approximately 27%) of the Clawback CVI, described below. The lifetime sum of the Rum Tax CVI and the Clawback CVI cannot exceed the $1,300 lifetime nominal cap (75% of allowed PRIFA claim) under the Eighth Amended POA. Further, under the PRIFA PSA, AAC and other creditors may also receive fees in connection with negotiating the PRIFA PSA and supporting the restructuring agreement reflected therein. The value of the PRIFA CVI Sub Trust is highly uncertain given the contingent, outperformance-driven structure of the CVIs coupled with the likely back-ended nature of most of the potential cash flows. Changes in our assumed values of the PRIFA CVI Sub Trust or the actual performance of the CVIs could cause an adverse change in our reserves which could be material. As a result, a decrease in our assumed values of the PRIFA CVI Sub Trust could have a material adverse impact on our results of operations and financial condition.
PRHTA/CCDA PSA
AAC signed a joinder to the PRHTA/CCDA PSA on July 15, 2021. The PRHTA/CCDA PSA, originally executed on May 5, 2021, provides for certain consideration for holders of bonds
issued by certain Commonwealth instrumentalities, PRHTA, and CCDA on account of their claims against the Commonwealth arising from such bonds ("Clawback" claims). This consideration consists of a contingent value instrument tied to the outperformance of the Commonwealth's sales and use tax ("SUT") relative to the certified 2020 Commonwealth Fiscal Plan's projections (the "Clawback CVI"). For years one through 30, a portion of the Clawback CVI consideration reflects a 40% share of cumulative outperformance, starting July 1, 2021, subject to a combined 95% outperformance limit with the subsequently described amounts subject to a waterfall. The other portion of the Clawback CVI receives, on an annual basis, the lesser of (i) 50% of cumulative outperformance, less payments previously made, and (ii) 75% of annual outperformance, and is subject to a waterfall. The waterfall provides that, in years one through 22, (a) holders of general obligation ("GO") bonds will receive the first $100 of outperformance; (b) the Clawback creditors will receive the next $11.1; and (c) any amounts received thereafter will be split 90%/10% between GO creditors and Clawback creditors. In years 23 through 30, subject to the limits in (i) and (ii) above, 100% of the outperformance goes to the Clawback creditors. Overall, Clawback CVI recoveries are subject to a lifetime cap of 75% of allowed claim amounts under the Eighth Amended POA. PRHTA creditors will receive an approximately 69% share of the Clawback CVI, subject to a lifetime nominal cap of about $3,700, and subject to a PRHTA-specific waterfall: holders of PRHTA ’68 bonds will receive the first dollars of Clawback CVI, followed by holders of PRHTA ’98 bonds. CCDA bondholders will receive a 4% share of the Clawback CVI, subject to a lifetime nominal cap of about $217. The value of the Clawback CVI is highly uncertain, given the contingent, outperformance-driven structure of the instrument coupled with the likelihood that cash flows in later years (years 23 through 30) will significantly exceed those in earlier years. Changes in our assumed values of the Clawback CVI or in the actual performance of the Clawback CVI could cause an adverse change in our reserves which could be material. As a result, a significant decrease in our assumed values of the Clawback CVI could have a material adverse impact on our results of operations and financial condition. For example, a 1% change in the estimated value of the Clawback CVI plan consideration related to the AAC-insured PRIFA, CCDA and PRHTA bonds would have an impact of about $2 on reserves.
Under the PRHTA/CCDA PSA, PRHTA bondholders will also receive new PRHTA bonds with a face amount of $1,245, maturities of up to 40 years and an average interest rate of 5.0%. Of the $1,245 in new bonds, approximately $646.4 will be allocated to holders of PRHTA '68 bonds and approximately $598.6 will be allocated to holders of PRHTA '98 bonds. PRHTA creditors will also share $389 of cash proceeds, including a $264 interim distribution, payable at the effective date of the Eighth Amended POA. In addition, certain restriction fees and consummation costs are payable at the effective date of the PRHTA POA. AAC will receive directly the pro rata share of the CW/PRHTA clawback recovery and interim PRHTA distributions allocable to its owned or insured PRHTA bonds. Of the $264 interim cash distribution, $184.8 would be allocated to holders of PRHTA ’68 bonds and $79.2 would be allocated to holders of PRHTA ’98 bonds. Claim recovery expectations for PRHTA creditors under the PRHTA/CCDA PSA are uncertain and subject to interpretation due to the aforementioned
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uncertainty related to the value of and/or the actual performance of the Clawback CVI.
Under the PRHTA/CCDA PSA, CCDA creditors will receive $112 of cash, inclusive of up to $15 related to restriction fees and consummation costs payable at the effective date of the Eighth Amended POA.
Amended and Restated GO / PBA PSA
On July 27, 2021, Ambac joined the July 12, 2021, Amended and Restated Plan Support Agreement with the Oversight Board, as representative of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, PBA, and the Employee Retirement System of the Government of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico ("Amended and Restated GO / PBA PSA"). In general, this PSA follows the Second Amended GO/PBA PSA, originally signed on February 23, 2021. Under the Amended GO/PBA PSA, creditors will receive up to $7,024 of cash, of which up to $350 was contingent upon FY2021 revenue outperformance exceeding $350 on a dollar-for-dollar basis, $6,683 of new GO current interest bonds, $443 of new GO 5.375% capital appreciation bonds, $288 of new GO 5.00% capital appreciation bonds, and GO Bond CVI, subject to a lifetime cap of about $3,500. The GO Bond CVI is intended to provide creditors with additional returns tied to outperformance of the SUT against the certified 2020 Commonwealth Fiscal Plan's projections. The value of the GO Bond CVI is highly uncertain, given the contingent, outperformance-driven structure of the instrument Recovery derived from fixed consideration (i.e., excluding GO Bond CVI) is estimated to vary between approximately 67% and 77% (as of the petition date) for GO creditors, and between approximately 75% and 80% (as of the petition date) for PBA creditors.
Under the Amended and Restated GO/PBA PSA, in exchange for executing the agreement and agreeing to its terms and conditions, creditors that were authorized to vote their claim will receive a PSA restriction fee of 1.32% of their claim amount at the effective date of the Eighth Amended POA.
The Amended and Restated GO/PBA PSA was further amended to allow for additional time to consummate the Eighth Amended POA (i.e., relevant deadlines therein extended from January 31, 2022 to March 15, 2022).
Plan of Adjustment and Qualifying Modification Considerations
The Eighth Amended POA has been confirmed, and the PRIFA QM and the CCDA QM have been approved. All are expected to become effective on or before March 15, 2022. However, uncertainty remains as to (i) whether the effective date will be stayed pending the appeal of the order confirming Eighth Amended POA; (ii) the result of the pending First Circuit appeal of the order confirming the Eighth Amended POA; (iii) the value or perceived value of the consideration provided by or on behalf of the debtors under the Eighth Amended POA, PRIFA QM, and CCDA QM; (iv) the extent to which exposure
management strategies, such as commutation and acceleration, will be executed; (v) the tax treatment of the consideration provided by or on behalf of the debtors under the Eighth Amended POA, PRIFA QM, and CCDA QM; (vi) whether and when the PRHTA POA will be confirmed; and (vii) other factors, including market conditions such as interest rate movements, credit spread changes on the new GO and CVI instruments, and liquidity for the new GO and CVI instruments. Ambac’s loss reserves may prove to be understated or overstated, possibly materially, due to favorable or unfavorable developments or results with respect to these factors. Refer to Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Balance Sheet to the Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part I, Item 2 in this Form 10-Q for the possible increase in loss reserves under stress or other adverse conditions. There can be no assurance that losses may not exceed such estimates.
Ambac Title III Litigation Update
AAC is party to a number of litigations related to its Puerto Rico exposures, and actively participates in the Commonwealth’s Title III proceedings before the United States District Court for the District of Puerto Rico. In connection with the July 27, 2021 PRIFA PSA, Ambac filed an urgent motion to stay various pending matters related to outstanding litigation in connection with the Commonwealth's Title III proceedings. On August 3, 2021, the Court entered an order staying the requested matters. While confirmation of the Eighth Amended POA and approval of the PRIFA QM and CCDA QM resolve many of the issues raised in the pending matters, the Court’s order confirming the Eighth Amended POA are now subject to appeal.
AAC continues to actively participate in PRHTA’s Title III proceedings.
Refer to Note 19. Commitments and Contingencies to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K for further information about Ambac's litigation relating to Puerto Rico.
Summary
Ambac has considered these developments and other factors in evaluating its Puerto Rico loss reserves. While management believes its reserves are adequate to cover losses in its Public Finance insured portfolio, there can be no assurance that Ambac may not incur additional losses in the future, particularly given the developing economic, political, and legal circumstances in Puerto Rico. Such additional losses may have a material adverse effect on Ambac’s results of operations and financial condition. Due to uncertainty regarding numerous factors, described above, that will ultimately determine the extent of Ambac's losses, it is also possible that favorable developments and results with respect to such factors may cause losses to be lower than current reserves, possibly materially.
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The following table outlines Ambac's insured exposure to each Commonwealth of Puerto Rico issuer.
| ($ in millions) | Range ofMaturity | Ambac Ratings (1) | Net Par Outstanding | Net Parand InterestOutstanding (2)(4) | Ever-to-DateNet ClaimsPaid (3) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PR Infrastructure Financing Authority (Special Tax Revenue) | 2023-2044 | BIG | $ | 403 | $ | 872 | $ | 202 | |||||||
| PR Highways and Transportation Authority (1998 Resolution - Senior Lien Transportation Revenue) | 2022-2042 | BIG | 394 | 620 | 164 | ||||||||||
| PR Convention Center District Authority (Hotel Occupancy Tax) | 2028-2031 | BIG | 86 | 123 | 72 | ||||||||||
| PR Public Buildings Authority - Guaranteed by the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico | 2022-2035 | BIG | 83 | 139 | 96 | ||||||||||
| PR Sales Tax Financing Corporation - Senior Sales Tax Revenue (COFINA) | 2047-2054 | BIG | 73 | 648 | 37 | ||||||||||
| Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds | 2022-2023 | BIG | 11 | 12 | 56 | ||||||||||
| PR Highways and Transportation Authority (1968 Resolution - Highway Revenue) | 2022-2027 | BIG | 4 | 9 | 25 | ||||||||||
| Total Net Exposure to The Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and Related Entities | $ | 1,054 | $ | 2,423 | $ | 652 |
(1) Internal credit ratings are provided solely to indicate the underlying credit quality of guaranteed obligations based on the view of Ambac. In cases where Ambac has insured multiple tranches of an issue with varying internal ratings, or more than one obligation of an issuer with varying internal ratings, a weighted average rating is used. Ambac credit ratings are subject to revision at any time and do not constitute investment advice. BIG denotes credits deemed below investment grade. .
(2) Net Par and Interest Outstanding ("P&I") represent the total insured future debt service remaining over the lifetime of the bonds. P&I for capital appreciation bonds does not represent the accreted amount but rather the amount due at respective maturity dates.
(3) In addition to ever-to-date net claims paid, Ambac made net claim payments of $23 in January 2022.
(4) Net Par and Interest Outstanding excludes the effects of a 10% current interest rate on $60 net par of PR Public Buildings Authority ("PBA") bonds with a maturity date of July 1, 2035, resulting from the absence of a remarketing. Should a remarketing not occur before the maturity of the bonds, the Net Par and Interest Outstanding for PBA exposure would increase by $37.
Additional Insured Portfolio Information
Average Life of Insured Portfolio
Ambac estimates that the average life of its guarantees on par in force at December 31, 2021 is approximately 10 years. The average life is determined by applying a weighted average calculation, using the remaining years to expected maturity of each guaranteed bond, and weighting them on the basis of the remaining net par guaranteed. Except for RMBS policies, no assumptions are made for non-contractual reductions, refundings or terminations of insured issues. RMBS policies incorporate assumptions on expected prepayments over the remaining life of the insured obligation.
The following table depicts amortization of existing guaranteed net par outstanding:
| Net Par Outstanding Amortization (1)($ in millions) | Estimated Net Amortization | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $ | 2,395 | |
| 2023 | 1,584 | ||
| 2024 | 1,814 | ||
| 2025 | 1,468 | ||
| 2026 | 1,385 | ||
| 2022-2026 | $ | 8,646 | |
| 2027-2031 | 6,131 | ||
| 2032-2036 | 6,817 | ||
| 2037-2041 | 3,544 | ||
| After 2041 | 2,882 | ||
| Total | $ | 28,020 |
(1) Depicts amortization of existing guaranteed portfolio, assuming no advance refundings, as of December 31, 2021. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations.
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Exposure Currency
The table below shows the distribution by currency of Ambac's existing guaranteed net par outstanding as of December 31, 2021:
| Currency ($ in millions) | Net Par Amount Outstanding in Base Currency | Net ParAmountOutstandingin U.S.Dollars | Percentage of Net Par Amount Outstanding | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Dollars | $ | 17,497 | $ | 17,497 | 62 | % | ||||
| British Pounds | £ | 6,690 | 9,054 | 32 | % | |||||
| Euros | € | 1,113 | 1,267 | 5 | % | |||||
| Australian Dollars | A$ | 279 | 202 | 1 | % | |||||
| Total | $ | 28,020 | 100 | % |
See Note 6. Financial Guarantees in Force to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 included in this Form 10-K, for geographic detail by location of risk as of December 31, 2021.
Ratings Distribution
The following charts provide a rating distribution of existing net par outstanding based upon internal Ambac credit ratings at December 31, 2021 and 2020 and a distribution of Ambac's below investment grade ("BIG") net par exposures at December 31, 2021 and 2020. BIG is defined as those exposures with an internal credit rating below BBB-:
Note: AAA is less than 1% in both periods.
(1) Internal credit ratings are provided solely to indicate the underlying credit quality of guaranteed obligations based on the view of Ambac. In cases where Ambac has insured multiple tranches of an issue with varying internal ratings, or more than one obligation of an issuer with varying internal ratings, a weighted average rating is used. Ambac credit ratings are subject to revision at any time and do not constitute investment advice.
Summary of Below Investment Grade Exposure:
| Bond Type ($ in millions) | Net Par Outstanding | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, | 2021 | 2020 | ||||
| Public Finance: | ||||||
| Puerto Rico | $ | 1,054 | $ | 1,070 | ||
| Military Housing | 370 | 308 | ||||
| Other | 317 | 1,057 | ||||
| Total Public Finance | 1,741 | 2,435 | ||||
| Structured Finance: | ||||||
| RMBS | 2,170 | 2,800 | ||||
| Student loans | 302 | 512 | ||||
| Total Structured Finance | 2,472 | 3,312 | ||||
| International Finance: | ||||||
| Sovereign/sub-sovereign | 774 | 742 | ||||
| Transportation | 389 | 760 | ||||
| Other | 62 | 72 | ||||
| Total International Finance | 1,225 | 1,574 | ||||
| Total | $ | 5,438 | $ | 7,321 |
The net decline in below investment grade exposures is primarily due to de-risking activities.
Below investment grade exposures could increase as a relative proportion of the guarantee portfolio given that stressed borrowers generally have less ability to prepay or refinance their debt. Accordingly, due to these and other factors, it is not unreasonable to expect the proportion of below investment grade exposure in the guarantee portfolio to continue to increase in the future.
Ceded Reinsurance
AAC has reinsurance in place pursuant to surplus share treaties and facultative agreements. As a primary financial guarantor, AAC is required to honor its obligations to its policyholders whether or not its reinsurers perform their obligations under these reinsurance agreements. As of December 31, 2021, the aggregate amount of insured par ceded by AAC to reinsurers under reinsurance agreements was $6,102, with the largest reinsurer accounting for $2,695 or 7.9% of gross par outstanding at December 31, 2021.
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The following table shows the distribution, by bond type, of AAC’s ceded guaranteed portfolio at December 31, 2021:
| Bond Type ($ in millions) | Ceded Par AmountOutstanding | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, | 2021 | 2020 | ||||
| Public Finance: | ||||||
| Lease and tax-backed revenue | $ | 1,618 | $ | 1,156 | ||
| General obligation | 1,458 | 1,327 | ||||
| Housing revenue | 922 | 934 | ||||
| Transportation revenue | 749 | 586 | ||||
| Other | 612 | 509 | ||||
| Total Public Finance | 5,359 | 4,512 | ||||
| Structured Finance: | ||||||
| Structured insurance | 313 | 115 | ||||
| Investor-owned utilities | 222 | 224 | ||||
| Other | 185 | 280 | ||||
| Total Structured Finance | 720 | 619 | ||||
| Total Domestic | 6,079 | 5,131 | ||||
| International Finance: | ||||||
| Total International Finance | 23 | 51 | ||||
| Total | $ | 6,102 | $ | 5,182 | ||
| Percentage of Gross Par Ceded | 18 | % | 13 | % |
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS ($ in millions)
The following discussion should be read along with the financial statements included in this Form 10-K, as well as Part II, "Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis's of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" of our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020, which provides additional information on comparisons of years 2020 and 2019.
Net loss attributable to common stockholders for the year ended December 31, 2021, was $17 compared to a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $437 for the year ended December 31, 2020. The decrease in losses was primarily driven by: (i) lower loss and loss expenses, (ii) net gains on derivative contracts, (iii) a $33 net gain on extinguishment of debt in 2021, (iv) higher investment income and (v) lower interest expense, partially offset by higher operating and tax expenses.
A summary of our financial results is shown below:
| ($ in millions)Year Ended December 31, | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues: | ||||||||||
| Net premiums earned | $ | 47 | $ | 54 | $ | 66 | ||||
| Net investment income | 139 | 122 | 227 | |||||||
| Net investment gains (losses), including impairments | 7 | 22 | 81 | |||||||
| Net gains (losses) on derivative contracts | 22 | (50) | (50) | |||||||
| Net realized gains (losses) on extinguishment of debt | 33 | — | — | |||||||
| Other income (expense) (1) | 27 | 3 | 134 | |||||||
| Income (loss) on variable interest entities | 7 | 5 | 38 | |||||||
| Expenses: | ||||||||||
| Losses and loss expenses (benefit) | (88) | 225 | 13 | |||||||
| Intangible amortization | 55 | 57 | 295 | |||||||
| Operating expenses | 126 | 92 | 103 | |||||||
| Interest expense | 187 | 222 | 269 | |||||||
| Provision (benefit) for income taxes | 18 | (3) | 32 | |||||||
| Net income (loss) | (16) | (437) | (216) | |||||||
| Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders | $ | (17) | $ | (437) | $ | (216) |
(1)2019 includes proceeds received in connection with an SEC action against Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in the amount of $142.
Ambac's 2020 results of operations and financial position were adversely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic's effect on the global economy and financial markets. Significant interest rate declines during the first quarter of 2020 contributed materially to a net increase in loss reserves and losses on interest rate derivative contracts for the year ended December 31, 2020. Financial market disruptions were reflected through lower valuations of certain fixed maturity securities (recorded through other comprehensive income) and the majority of other investments (recorded through net investment income). During the second half of 2020 and into 2021, valuations recovered (favorably impacting counterparty credit adjustments on derivative assets and valuations of investment securities). The scope, duration and magnitude of the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 are evolving in ways that are difficult or impossible to anticipate. As a result, it is possible that Ambac's results of operations and financial condition may be further adversely affected by the evolving effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. For additional information on the risks posed by COVID-19, refer to “Part I, Item 1A-Risk Factors” in this Form 10-K.
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The following paragraphs describe the consolidated results of operations of Ambac for 2021 and 2020.
Net Premiums Earned. Net premiums earned for the year ended December 31, 2021, decreased by $7 or 13% as compared to net premiums earned for the year ended December 31, 2020. The decline was driven by reductions in FG premiums earned partially offset by $1 of specialty property and casualty net premiums earned.
Net premiums earned for FG were impacted by the runoff of the financial guarantee insured portfolio, including through transaction terminations, calls and scheduled maturities, which reduce current and future net premiums earned and were also impacted by the following:
•Changes to the allowance for credit losses on the premium receivable asset. The impact on net premiums earned related to credit losses amounted to $6 and $(5) for the for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020.
•Accelerated financial guarantee premium earnings as a result of calls and other accelerations on insured obligations largely due to de-risking activity of $1 and $12 for the for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020.
•New financial guarantee ceded reinsurance which reduces normal net premiums earned over the remaining period of the related ceded policies.
•The strengthening or weakening of the U.S. dollar relative to the British Pound since Ambac's wholly-owned UK subsidiary, Ambac UK, operates in the United Kingdom and the British Pound is its functional currency.
Net Investment Income. Net investment income primarily consists of interest and net discount accretion on fixed maturity securities classified as available-for-sale, and net gains (losses) on pooled investment funds which include changes in fair value of the funds' net assets. Fixed maturity securities include investments in Ambac-insured securities that are made opportunistically based on their risk/reward and asset-liability management characteristics. Investments in pooled investment funds and certain other investments are either classified as trading securities with changes in fair value recognized in earnings or are reported under the equity method. These funds and other investments are reported in Other investments on the Consolidated Balance Sheets. For further information about investment funds held, refer to Note 4. Investments to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Net investment income from Ambac-insured securities, available-for-sale and short-term securities other than Ambac-insured and Other investments is summarized in the table below:
| ($ in millions) Year Ended December 31, | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Securities available-for-sale: Ambac-insured (including LSNI and Sitka Senior Secured Notes) | $ | 45 | $ | 62 | $ | 121 | ||||
| Securities available-for-sale and short-term other than Ambac-insured | 29 | 41 | 75 | |||||||
| Other investments (includes trading securities) | 66 | 19 | 32 | |||||||
| Net investment income | $ | 139 | $ | 122 | $ | 227 |
Net investment income increased $18 for the year ended December 31, 2021, compared to 2020. As described further below, the variance was primarily driven by 2020 pricing volatility within fund investments resulting from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial markets and the impact of the LSNI Secured Note redemption in July 2021.
•Investment income from Ambac-insured securities decreased $17 in 2021, compared to 2020, due to lower income on LSNI Secured Notes. As described in Note 1. Background and Business Description, to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, on July 6, 2021, the LSNI Secured Notes were fully redeemed, including those held in Ambac's investment portfolio. Investment income from other Ambac-insured securities, primarily consisting of RMBS and Puerto Rico bonds, was flat compared to 2020.
•Net investment income from available-for-sales securities other than Ambac-insured securities decreased $12 in 2021, compared to the prior year, reflecting a smaller asset base and lower average yields. Portfolio repositioning during 2021 and 2020, resulted in a higher allocation of pooled funds and Ambac-insured Puerto Rico bonds, while reinvestment in non-insured available-for-sale securities were generally at lower yields. Short term rates also remained low throughout 2021, adversely impacting investment income. Additionally, the use of cash for early debt redemptions and operating cash needs contributed to the smaller asset base.
•Other investments income increased $47 in 2021, compared to the prior year. The increase resulted from overall positive performance in 2021 and additional investments, particularly in hedge and equity funds. Relatively low returns in 2020 were driven by adverse changes in fair values as a consequence of the initial economic and financial market impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter, offset by a generally strong market recovery in subsequent quarters of 2020.
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Net Investment Gains (Losses), including Impairments. The following table provides a breakdown of net investment gains, for the periods presented:
| ($ in millions) Year Ended December 31, | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net realized gains on securities sold or called | $ | 11 | $ | 26 | $ | 59 | ||||
| Foreign exchange gains (losses) | (5) | (4) | 22 | |||||||
| Credit impairment | — | — | — | |||||||
| Intent / requirement to sell impairments | — | — | — | |||||||
| Total net investment gains, including impairments | $ | 7 | $ | 22 | $ | 81 |
Net investment gains on securities sold or called during the year ended December 31, 2021, included a gain of $4 realized on the sale of AFG's equity interest in the Corolla Trust in connection with the Corolla Exchange Transaction. Other net realized gains on securities sold or called in 2021 and 2020 are primarily from sales in connection with routine portfolio management.
Impairments are reported through earnings if management intends to sell securities or it is more likely than not that the Company will be required to sell before recovery of amortized cost. Credit impairments are recorded in earnings only to the extent management does not intend to sell, and it is not more likely than not that the Company will be required to sell the securities, before recovery of their amortized cost. When credit impairments are recorded, any non-credit related impairment amounts on the securities are recorded in other comprehensive income.
Net Gains (Losses) on Derivative Contracts. Net gains (losses) on derivative contracts includes result from the Company's interest rate derivatives portfolio and its runoff credit derivative portfolio. The interest rate derivatives portfolio is positioned to benefit from rising rates as a partial economic hedge against interest rate exposure in the financial guarantee and investment portfolios. Net gain (loss) on interest rate derivatives generally reflect mark-to-market gains (losses) in the portfolio caused by increases (declines) in forward interest rates during the periods, the carrying cost of the portfolio, and the impact of counterparty credit adjustments as discussed below. Results from credit derivatives were not significant to the periods presented.
•Net gains on interest rate derivatives for the year ended December 31, 2021, were $22, compared to a net losses of $50 for the year ended December 31, 2020. The net gain for the year ended December 31, 2021, resulted from the impact of rising interest rates and gains related to counterparty credit adjustments partially offset by the carrying cost of maintaining the economic hedge position. The net loss for the year ended December 31, 2020, reflects significant declines in forward interest rates, triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, and losses from the application of counterparty credit adjustments, described further below.
•Counterparty credit adjustments are generally applicable for uncollateralized derivative assets that may not be offset by derivative liabilities under a master netting agreement. Inclusion of counterparty credit adjustments in the
valuation of interest rate derivatives resulted in gains (losses) within Net gains (losses) on derivative contracts of $5 and $(6) for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The gain for the year ended December 31, 2021, resulted from the decrease in underlying net asset values as interest rates increased. The loss in 2020 was driven by wider credit spreads reflecting the credit rating downgrade of a derivative counterparty by Ambac during the first quarter, simultaneous with an increase in the underlying asset values as interest rates declined.
Other Income (Expense). Other income (expense) includes commission revenues of Xchange, ceding fees from the specialty property and casualty business, various financial guarantee fees and foreign exchange gains / (losses) unrelated to investments or loss reserves. For the year ended December 31, 2021, other income includes Xchange revenues of $26. Xchange pays commissions to sub-producers which are included in operating expenses.
Net Realized Gains on Extinguishment of Debt. Net realized gains on extinguishment of debt was $33 for the year ended December 31, 2021, resulting from the first quarter 2021 exchanges of junior surplus notes below their carrying values. Refer to Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, for further discussion of the 2021 Surplus Notes Exchanges.
Income (Loss) on Variable Interest Entities. Included within Income (loss) on variable interest entities are income statement amounts relating to VIEs consolidated under the Consolidation Topic of the ASC as a result of Ambac's variable interest arising from financial guarantees written by Ambac's subsidiaries, including gains or losses attributable to consolidating or deconsolidating VIEs during the periods reported. Generally, the Company’s consolidated VIEs are entities for which Ambac has provided financial guarantees on all of or a portion of its assets or liabilities. In consolidation, assets and liabilities of the VIEs are initially reported at fair value and the related insurance assets and liabilities are eliminated. However, the amount of VIE net assets (liabilities) that remain in consolidation generally result from the net positive (negative) projected cash flows from (to) the VIEs which are attributable to Ambac’s insurance subsidiaries in the form of financial guarantee insurance premiums, fees and losses. In the case of VIEs with net negative projected cash flows, the net liability is generally to be funded by Ambac’s insurance subsidiaries through insurance claim payments. Differences between the net carrying value of the insurance accounts under the Financial Services—Insurance Topic of the ASC and the carrying value of the consolidated VIE’s net assets or liabilities are recorded through income at the time of consolidation. Additionally, terminations or other changes to Ambac's financial guarantee insurance policies that impact projected cash flows between a consolidated VIE and Ambac could result in gains or losses, even if such policy changes do not result in deconsolidation of the VIE.
Income (loss) on variable interest entities was $7 and $5 for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. Results for the year ended December 31, 2021, were driven by the
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higher valuation of net assets on VIEs, together with realized gains of $2 on sales of assets from the COFINA Trust. Results for the year ended December 31, 2020, were due to realized gains of $8 on sales of assets from the COFINA Trust partially offset by the lower valuation of net assets on a VIE impacted by COVID-19.
Refer to Note 11. Variable Interest Entities to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further information on the accounting for VIEs.
Losses and Loss Expenses (Benefit). Losses and loss expenses include the financial guarantee and specialty property and casualty businesses.
Ambac records as a component of its loss reserve estimate subrogation recoveries related to securitized loans in RMBS transactions with respect to which AAC is pursuing claims for breaches of representations and warranties. Ambac does not include potential recoveries attributed solely to fraudulent inducement claims in our litigations in our estimate of subrogation recoveries. Nor does Ambac include potential recoveries attributable to pre-judgment interest in the estimate of subrogation recoveries. Generally, the sponsor of an RMBS transaction provided representations and warranties with respect to the securitized loans, including representations with respect to the loan characteristics, the absence of borrower misrepresentations in the underlying loan pools or other misconduct in the origination process and attesting to the compliance of loans with the applicable underwriting guidelines. Ambac has recorded R&W subrogation recoveries, net of reinsurance, of $1,704 and $1,725 at December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The decrease in these recoveries was primarily driven by lower projected losses. Refer to Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for more information regarding the estimation process for R&W subrogation recoveries.
The following table provides details, by bond type, for losses and loss expenses (benefit) incurred for the periods presented:
| ($ in millions) Year Ended December 31, | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structured Finance (1) | $ | (20) | $ | (52) | $ | (111) | ||||
| Domestic Public Finance | (73) | 256 | 250 | |||||||
| Other (2) | 4 | 21 | (127) | |||||||
| Totals (3) | $ | (88) | $ | 225 | $ | 13 |
(1) The loss and loss expense (benefit) associated with changes in estimated representation and warranties for the year ended December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019 was $20, ($23) and $42, respectively.
(2) Includes specialty property and casualty loss and loss expenses incurred of less than $1 for the year ended December 31, 2021.
(3) Includes loss expenses incurred of $55, $103 and $78 for the year ended December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019, respectively.
Losses and loss expenses for 2021 were largely driven by favorable loss development in domestic public finance, primarily related to Puerto Rico, and structured finance, primarily related to improved credit in RMBS, partially offset by
the negative impact of discount rates, and loss expenses incurred.
Losses and loss expenses for 2020 were driven by higher projected losses in domestic public finance, largely Puerto Rico; partially offset by improved Structured Finance losses as a result of the positive impact of lower interest rates on excess spread, reduced by lower discount rates and expected losses from COVID-19 related delinquencies.
Intangible Amortization. Insurance intangible amortization was $52 and $57 for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The decrease in amortization for the year ended December 31, 2021, compared to 2020, is primarily due to run-off of the insured portfolio and de-risking activity. Other intangible amortization for the year ended December 31, 2021 was $3.
Operating Expenses. Operating expenses consist of gross operating expenses plus reinsurance commissions. The following table provides a summary of operating expenses for the periods presented:
| ($ in millions) Year Ended December 31, | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compensation | $ | 62 | $ | 51 | $ | 58 | ||||
| Non-compensation | 64 | 41 | 44 | |||||||
| Gross operating expenses | 126 | 92 | 103 | |||||||
| Reinsurance commissions, net | — | — | — | |||||||
| Total operating expenses | $ | 126 | $ | 92 | $ | 103 |
Gross operating expenses for the year ended December 31, 2021 are $126, an increase of $34 from gross operating expenses for the year ended December 31, 2020. The increase was primarily due to the following:
•Higher compensation costs primarily due to: (i) hiring in connection with the launch of Everspan offset by continued right sizing of staff levels, (ii) inclusion of Xchange costs of $4 and (iii) the impact of performance factors on incentive compensation.
•Higher non-compensation costs primarily due to: (i) inclusion of Xchange costs of $16, mainly from producer commissions of $15, (ii) launch of Everspan, and (iii) increased legal fees.
Legal and consulting services provided for the benefit of OCI were flat at $2 during the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020.
Interest Expense. Interest expense includes accrued interest on the LSNI Ambac Note (as defined in Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K), Sitka AAC Note, Tier 2 Notes, Surplus Notes and other debt obligations. Additionally, interest expense includes discount accretion when the debt instrument carrying value is at a discount to par. The following table provides details by type of obligation for the periods presented:
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| ($ in millions) Year Ended December 31, | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surplus Notes (1) | $ | 77 | $ | 85 | $ | 99 | ||||
| LSNI Ambac Note | 50 | 107 | 143 | |||||||
| Sitka AAC Note | 32 | — | — | |||||||
| Tier 2 Notes | 27 | 28 | 26 | |||||||
| Other | 1 | 1 | — | |||||||
| Total interest expense | $ | 187 | $ | 222 | $ | 269 |
(1)Includes interest on Junior Surplus Notes that were acquired and retired in 2021.
The decrease in interest expense for the year ended December 31, 2021, compared to the year ended December 31, 2020, reflects the impacts of the Secured Note Refinancing and 2021 Surplus Note Exchanges, described further in Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. These transactions resulted in lower debt outstanding and a lower coupon interest rate on the Sitka AAC Note relative to the LSNI Ambac Note. Interest expense for 2021 also declined as a result of the Tier 2 Note fully accreting through interest expense by December 31, 2020. These benefits were partially offset by the effects of interest compounding on surplus notes and the Tier 2 Notes.
Surplus Note principal and interest payments require the approval of OCI. In May 2021, OCI declined the request of AAC to pay the principal amount of the Surplus Notes, plus all accrued and unpaid interest thereon, on the scheduled payment date of June 7, 2021. As a result, the scheduled payment date for interest, and the scheduled maturity date for payment of principal of the Surplus Notes, was extended and shall continue to be extended until OCI grants approval to make the payment. Interest will accrue, compounded on each anniversary of the original scheduled payment date or scheduled maturity date, on any unpaid principal or interest through the actual date of payment, at 5.1% per annum. Holders of Surplus Notes will have no rights to enforce the payment of the principal of, or interest on, Surplus Notes in the absence of OCI approval to pay such amount. The interest on the outstanding Surplus Notes were accrued for and AAC is accruing interest on the interest amounts following each scheduled payment date. Total accrued and unpaid interest for Surplus Notes outstanding to third parties were $576 at December 31, 2021. Since the issuance of the Surplus Notes in 2010, OCI has declined to approve regular payments of interest on Surplus Notes, although the OCI has permitted two exceptional payments. Ambac can provide no assurance as to when Surplus Note principal and interest payments will be made, if ever. If OCI does not approve regular payments on Surplus Notes within the next several years, the total amount due for Surplus Notes may exceed AAC's financial resources and holders of Surplus Notes may not ever be paid in full.
Provision for Income Taxes. The provision for income taxes for the year ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, was a expense of $18 and a benefit of $3, respectively. Income taxes for the year ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, includes provisions for income tax due in respect of Ambac UK of $16 and $(3), respectively.
At December 31, 2021, the Company had approximately $3,744 of U.S. Federal net ordinary operating loss carryforwards, including approximately $1,596 at AFG and $2,148 at AAC.
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
($ in millions)
Liquidity is a measure of a company’s ability to generate sufficient cash to meet the cash requirements of its business operations and to satisfy general corporate obligations.
Holding Company Liquidity
AFG is organized as a legal entity separate and distinct from its operating subsidiaries. AFG is a holding company with no outstanding debt. AFG’s liquidity is primarily dependent on its net assets, excluding its equity investments in subsidiaries, totaling $269 as of December 31, 2021, of which $142 is considered highly liquid, and secondarily on distributions and expense sharing payments from its subsidiaries. AFG's investments include securities directly and indirectly issued and/or insured by AAC, some of which are eliminated in consolidation. Securities issued or insured by AAC and certain other of AFG's investments are generally less liquid than investment grade and highly traded investments.
•During 2021, AFG received distributions from Xchange of $6.
•Under an inter-company cost allocation agreement, AFG is reimbursed by AAC for a portion of certain operating costs and expenses and, if approved by OCI, entitled to an additional payment of up to $4 per year to cover expenses not otherwise reimbursed. The $4 reimbursement for 2020 expenses was approved (by OCI) and paid (by AAC) in April 2021.
It is highly unlikely that AAC will be able to make dividend payments to AFG for the foreseeable future or that Everspan will be able to make dividend payments to AFG for several years, and therefore cash and investments, payments under the intercompany cost allocation agreement and distributions from Xchange will be AFG’s principal sources of liquidity in the near term. Refer to Part I, Item 1, “Insurance Regulatory Matters — Dividend Restrictions, Including Contractual Restrictions” in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, and Note 8. Insurance Regulatory Restrictions to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8, in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, for more information on dividend payment restrictions.
The principal uses of liquidity are the payment of operating expenses, including costs to explore opportunities to grow and diversify Ambac; the making of strategic investments, which may include illiquid investments; and capital investments to acquire, grow and/or capitalize new and/or existing businesses. AFG may also provide short-term financial support, primarily in the form of loans, to its operating subsidiaries to support their operating requirements. Contingencies could cause material liquidity strains.
•AFG supported the development of the Specialty P&C business, and its acquisitions, by contributing capital to
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Everspan Indemnity of approximately $92 and $6 in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, respectively.
In the opinion of the Company’s management the net assets of AFG are sufficient to meet AFG’s current liquidity requirements. However, events or circumstances could arise that may cause AFG to seek additional capital.
Operating Companies' Liquidity
Insurance:
The liquidity requirements of the Company’s insurance subsidiaries are met primarily by funds generated from premiums; recoveries on claim payments, including RMBS representation and warranty subrogation recoveries (AAC only); reinsurance recoveries; fees; investment income and maturities and sales of investments.
•Our ability to realize RMBS representation and warranty subrogation recoveries is subject to significant uncertainty, including risks inherent in litigation, such as adverse rulings or decisions in our cases or in litigations to which AAC is not a party that set precedents or resolve questions of law that impact our own claims; collectability of such amounts from counterparties (and/or their respective parents and affiliates); timing of receipt of any such recoveries, including uncertainty due to delays in court proceedings; intervention by the OCI, which could impede our ability to take actions required to realize such recoveries; and uncertainty inherent in the assumptions used in estimating the amount of such recoveries. The amount of these subrogation recoveries is significant and if AAC is unable to recover any amounts or recovers materially less than estimated recoveries, its future available liquidity to pay claims, debt service and meet other obligations would be materially adversely impacted. See Part I, Item 1A. Risk Factors in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for more information about risks relating to RMBS R&W subrogation recoveries.
•See Note 7. Insurance Contracts to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8, in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for a summary of future gross financial guarantee premiums to be collected by AAC and Ambac UK. Termination of financial guarantee policies on an accelerated basis may adversely impact AAC’s liquidity.
Cash provided from these sources is used primarily for claim payments and commutations, loss expenses and acquisition costs, debt service on outstanding debt (AAC only), operating expenses, reinsurance payments and purchases of securities and other investments that may not be immediately converted into cash.
•Although AAC has not yet experienced incremental claim payments as a result of the impact of COVID-19, such claims may occur in the future as issuers, particularly those with revenues that have been interrupted by the effects of the pandemic, may not have sufficient resources to pay debt service on insured debt. Refer to "Executive Summary" in this Management's Discussion and Analysis for further discussion of the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. See below within this Management Discussion
and Analysis in the section titled "Balance Sheet" for the expected future financial guarantee claim payments, gross of expected recoveries.
•Interest and principal payments on surplus notes are subject to the approval of OCI, which has full discretion over payments regardless of the liquidity position of AAC. Any such payment on surplus notes would require either payment or collateralization of a portion of the Tier 2 Notes under the terms of the Tier 2 Note indenture. As discussed more fully in "Results of Operations" above in this Management's Discussion and Analysis, OCI declined AAC's request to pay the principal amount of the surplus notes, plus all accrued and unpaid interest thereon, on June 7, 2021. See Note 12. Long-term Debt to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K for further discussion of the payment terms and conditions of the Tier 2 Notes as well as the aggregate annual maturities of all debt outstanding. In addition to principal amounts of $2,334 as of December 31, 2021 with various maturities as described in Note 12. Long-term Debt to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K, AAC's future interest obligations include $62 annually on the Sitka AAC Note through maturity on July 6, 2026, $605 of accrued and unpaid interest that would be payable on surplus notes if approved by OCI on the next scheduled payment date of June 7, 2022, and Tier 2 Note interest that may be paid-in-kind until maturity on February 12, 2055 at which time $5,060 would be due.
•Ambac is the lessee in operating leases for corporate offices, a data center and various equipment. See Note 18. Leases to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8, in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, for a scheduled future undiscounted lease payments, gross of sublease receipts.
•AAC lends its wholly-owned subsidiary, Ambac Financial Services ("AFS") cash to support its operations. AFS uses interest rate derivatives (primarily interest rate swaps and US Treasury futures) as a partial economic hedge against the effects of rising interest rates elsewhere in the Company, including on AAC’s financial guarantee exposures. AFS's derivatives also include interest rate swaps previously provided to asset-backed issuers and other entities in connection with their financings. AAC loans cash and securities to AFS as needed to fund payments under these derivative contracts, collateral posting requirements and operating expenses. Intercompany loans are governed by an established lending agreement with defined borrowing limits that has received non-disapproval from OCI.
Insurance subsidiaries manage their liquidity risk by maintaining comprehensive analyses of projected cash flows and maintaining specified levels of cash and short-term investments at all times. It is the opinion of the Company’s management that the insurance subsidiaries’ near term liquidity needs will be adequately met from the sources described above.
Managing General Agent / Underwriting (MGA/U):
The liquidity requirements of the MGA/U subsidiary are met primarily by funds generated from commission receipts (both
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base and profit commissions) from insurance carriers. Base commissions are generally received monthly, whereas profit commissions are received only if the business underwritten is profitable. Cash provided from these sources is used primarily for commissions paid to sub-producers, distributions to its members (including AFG) and operating expenses.
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement Discussion
The following table summarizes the net cash flows for the periods presented.
| ($ in million)Year Ended December 31, | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash provided by (used in): | ||||||||||
| Operating activities | $ | (131) | $ | (175) | $ | (311) | ||||
| Investing activities | 776 | 432 | 1,000 | |||||||
| Financing activities | (657) | (303) | (691) | |||||||
| Effect of foreign exchange on cash and cash equivalents | — | — | — | |||||||
| Net cash flow | $ | (12) | $ | (46) | $ | (2) |
Operating activities
The following represents the significant cash operating activities during the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020:
•Debt service on the LSNI Ambac Note was $51 and $107 for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively.
•Debt service on the Sitka AAC Note was $30 for the year ended December 31, 2021.
•Cash provided from financial guarantee premiums were $35 and $47 for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020. Cash provided from specialty property and casualty premiums were $8 for the year ended December 31, 2021.
•Payments related to (i) operating expenses were $83 and $76 for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, (ii) reinsurance premiums were $26 and $2 for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, and (iii) interest rate derivatives were $(1) and $20 for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively.
•Interest, dividends and other distributed income from the investment portfolio was $80 and $104 for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively.
•Net loss and loss expenses paid, including commutation payments are detailed below:
| ($ in million) Year Ended December 31, | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net losses paid | $ | 103 | $ | 159 | $ | 416 | ||||
| Net subrogation received | (121) | (118) | (168) | |||||||
| Net loss expenses paid | 77 | 108 | 70 | |||||||
| Net cash flow | $ | 59 | $ | 149 | $ | 318 |
Future operating cash flows will primarily be impacted by interest payments on outstanding debt, claim and expense payments, subrogation recoveries, investment income receipts and premium collections.
Investing Activities
Cash provided for investing activities in both 2021 and 2020 were to (i) provide liquidity for operating activities; (ii) diversify the investment portfolio from fixed maturity to other assets (total fair value of pooled investments of $683 at December 31, 2021) and (iii) support strategic initiatives, including AFG's purchase 80% of Xchange for $74 in 2020, net of cash acquired.
Financing Activities
Financing activities for the year ended December 31, 2021, include paydowns of the LSNI Ambac Note of $1,641, paydowns/maturities of VIE debt obligations of $170, partially offset by the proceeds from the Sitka AAC Note issuance of 1,163.
Financing activities for the year ended December 31, 2020, include paydowns of the LSNI Ambac Note of $121 and paydowns of VIE debt obligations of $178.
Collateral
AFS hedges a portion of the interest rate risk in the financial guarantee and investment portfolio, along with legacy customer interest rate swaps with standardized derivative contracts, including financial futures contracts, which contain collateral or margin requirements. Under these hedge agreements, AFS is required to post collateral or margin to its counterparties and futures commission merchants to cover unrealized losses. In addition, AFS is required to post collateral or margin in excess of the amounts needed to cover unrealized losses. All AFS derivative contracts containing ratings-based downgrade triggers that could result in collateral or margin posting or a termination have been triggered. If terminations were to occur, AFS would be required to make termination payments but would also receive a return of collateral or margin in the form of cash or U.S. Treasury obligations with market values equal to or in excess of market values of the swaps and futures contracts. AFS may look to re-establish hedge positions that are terminated early, resulting in additional collateral or margin obligations. The amount of additional collateral or margin posted on derivatives contracts will depend on several variables including the degree to which counterparties exercise their termination rights (or agreements terminate automatically) and the terms on which hedges can be replaced. All collateral and margin obligations are currently met. Collateral and margin posted by AFS totaled a net amount of $133 (cash and securities collateral of $13 and $120 respectively), including independent amounts, under these contracts at December 31, 2021.
Ambac Credit Products LLC (“ACP”) is not required to post collateral under any of its outstanding credit derivative contracts.
BALANCE SHEET ($ in millions)
Total assets decreased by approximately $917 from December 31, 2020 to $12,303 at December 31, 2021, primarily due to the impacts of the Corolla Trust Exchange and Secured Note Refinancing described in Note 1. Background and Business Description in this Annual Report on Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8, payment of loss and loss expenses, interest and operating expenses, lower subrogation recoverables, lower consolidated VIE assets from paydowns of consolidated
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VIE liabilities, lower derivative assets caused by rising interest rates and lower premium receivables and intangible assets from the continued runoff of the financial guarantee insurance portfolio.
Total liabilities decreased by approximately $886 from December 31, 2020, to $11,187 as of December 31, 2021, primarily due to lower loss reserves, and the payment of loss and loss expenses, lower VIE and non-VIE long-term debt (from the surplus note exchange transactions and Secured Note Refinancing) and lower derivative liabilities caused by rising interest rates.
As of December 31, 2021, total stockholders’ equity was $1,098, compared with total stockholders’ equity of $1,140 at December 31, 2020. This decrease was primarily due to a Total Comprehensive Loss during 2021 and a $14 increase to the carrying value of redeemable NCI which is offset directly against retained earnings. The Comprehensive Loss was primarily driven by the net loss attributable to common stockholders for the year ended December 31, 2021, of $17, unrealized losses on investments of $12 and translation losses on the consolidation of AFG's foreign subsidiaries.of $8.
Investment Portfolio.
Ambac's investment portfolio is managed under established guidelines designed to meet the investment objectives of AAC, Everspan, Ambac UK and AFG. Refer to "Description of the Business — Investments and Investment Policy" in this Annual Report on Form 10-K located in Part I. Item 1, for further description of Ambac's investment policies and applicable regulations.
Refer to Note 4. Investments to the Consolidated Financial Statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8 for information about Ambac's consolidated investment portfolio. Ambac's investment polices and objectives do not apply to the assets of VIEs consolidated as a result of financial guarantees written by its insurance subsidiaries.
The following table summarizes the composition of Ambac’s investment portfolio, excluding VIE investments, at carrying value at December 31, 2021 and 2020:
| ($ in millions) December 31, | 2021 | 2020 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed maturity securities | $ | 1,730 | $ | 2,317 | ||
| Short-term | 414 | 492 | ||||
| Other investments | 690 | 595 | ||||
| Securities pledged as collateral | 120 | 140 | ||||
| Total investments (1) | $ | 2,955 | $ | 3,544 |
(1) Includes investments denominated in non-US dollar currencies with a fair value of £341 ($462) and €38 ($43) as of December 31, 2021 and £317 ($434) and €39 ($48) as of December 31, 2020.
Ambac invests in various asset classes in its fixed maturity securities portfolio. Other investments include diversified equity interests in pooled funds. Refer to Note 4. Investments to the Consolidated Financial Statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8 for information about fixed maturity securities and pooled funds by asset class.
The following charts provide the ratings(1) distribution of the fixed maturity investment portfolio based on fair value at December 31, 2021 and 2020.
(1)Ratings are based on the lower of Moody’s or S&P ratings. If ratings are unavailable from Moody's or S&P, Fitch ratings are used. If guaranteed, rating represents the higher of the underlying or guarantor’s financial strength rating.
(2)Below investment grade and not rated bonds insured by Ambac represented 32% and 41% of the 2021 and 2020 combined fixed maturity investment portfolios, respectively. The decrease is primarily due to the impact of the Secured Note Refinancing described in Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements in this Annual Report Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8.
Premium Receivables.
Ambac's premium receivables decreased to $323 at December 31, 2021, from $370 at December 31, 2020. As further discussed in Note 7. Insurance Contracts to the Consolidated Financial Statements, in this Annual Report Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8, the decrease is due to premium
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receipts and adjustments for changes in expected and contractual cash flows on financial guarantee insurance contracts, partially offset by decreases to the allowance for credit losses, accretion of the financial guarantee premium receivable discount and premium receivables on the Specialty P&C business.
Premium receivables by payment currency were as follows:
| Currency (Amounts in millions) | Premium Receivable in Payment Currency | Premium Receivable in U.S. dollars | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Dollars | $ | 199 | $ | 199 | |||
| British Pounds | £ | 80 | 108 | ||||
| Euros | € | 14 | 16 | ||||
| Total | $ | 323 |
Reinsurance Recoverable on Paid and Unpaid Losses.
Ambac has reinsurance in place pursuant to surplus share treaty and facultative agreements. To minimize its exposure to losses from reinsurers, Ambac (i) monitors the financial condition of its reinsurers; (ii) is entitled to receive collateral from its reinsurance counterparties under certain reinsurance contracts; and (iii) has certain cancellation rights that can be exercised in the event of rating agency downgrades of a reinsurer (among other events and circumstances). For those reinsurance counterparties that do not currently post collateral, Ambac’s reinsurers are well capitalized, highly rated, authorized capacity providers. Ambac benefited from letters of credit and collateral amounting to approximately $111 from its reinsurers at December 31, 2021. As of December 31, 2021 and 2020, reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses were $55 and $33, respectively. The increase was primarily a result of reinsurance recoverables of $30 added in connection with the PWIC transaction, offset by favorable development in financial guarantee insured exposures.
Intangible Assets.
Intangible assets includes (i) an insurance intangible asset that was established at AFG's emergence from bankruptcy, representing the difference between the fair value and aggregate carrying value of the financial guarantee insurance and reinsurance assets and liabilities, (ii) intangible assets established as part of the acquisition of Xchange on December 31, 2020 and (iii) an indefinite-lived intangible assets established as part of the acquisition of PWIC. Refer to Note 3. Business Combination to the Consolidated Financial Statements,
in this Annual Report Form 10-K located in Part II. Item 8 for further information relating to the Xchange acquisition.
As of December 31, 2021 and 2020 the net intangible asset was $362 and $409, respectively. The decline is driven by amortization and translation gains (losses) from the consolidation of Ambac's foreign subsidiary (Ambac UK), partially offset by the indefinite-lived asset established in 2021.
Derivative Assets and Liabilities.
The interest rate derivative portfolio is positioned to benefit from rising rates as a partial hedge against interest rate exposure in the financial guarantee and investment portfolios. Derivative assets and liabilities on the balance sheet primarily reflect the portion of the portfolio that is not subject to daily cash variation margin payments. Derivative assets decreased from $93 at December 31, 2020, to $76 as of December 31, 2021. Derivative liabilities decreased from $114 at December 31, 2020, to $95 as of December 31, 2021. The decreases resulted primarily from higher interest rates during the year ended December 31, 2021, with the decline in assets partially offset by lower counterparty credit adjustments.
Loss and Loss Expense Reserves and Subrogation Recoverable.
Loss and loss expense reserves are based upon estimates of the ultimate aggregate losses inherent in the non-derivative portfolio for insurance policies issued to beneficiaries, including unconsolidated VIEs. The evaluation process for determining the level of reserves is subject to certain estimates and judgments. Refer to the "Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates" and “Results of Operations” sections of Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, in addition to Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies and Loss Reserves sections included in Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies and Note 7. Insurance Contracts, respectively, to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, for further information on loss and loss expenses.
The loss and loss expense reserves net of subrogation recoverables and before reinsurance as of December 31, 2021 and 2020 were $(522) and $(397), respectively. Loss and loss expense reserves are included in the Consolidated Balance Sheets as follows:
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| Present Value of Expected Net Cash Flows | Unearned Premium Revenue | Gross Lossand LossExpenseReserves (2) | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ in millions) Balance Sheet Line Item | Claims and Loss Expenses | Recoveries (1) | ||||||||||||||||
| December 31, 2021: | ||||||||||||||||||
| Loss and loss expense reserves | $ | 1,781 | $ | (155) | $ | (56) | $ | 1,570 | ||||||||||
| Subrogation recoverable | 88 | (2,180) | — | (2,092) | ||||||||||||||
| Totals | $ | 1,869 | $ | (2,335) | $ | (56) | $ | (522) | ||||||||||
| December 31, 2020: | ||||||||||||||||||
| Loss and loss expense reserves | $ | 2,060 | $ | (229) | $ | (72) | $ | 1,759 | ||||||||||
| Subrogation recoverable | 100 | (2,256) | — | (2,156) | ||||||||||||||
| Totals | $ | 2,160 | $ | (2,485) | $ | (72) | $ | (397) |
(1)Present value of future recoveries include R&W subrogation recoveries of $1,730 and $1,751 at December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively.
(2)Loss and loss expense reserves at December 31, 2021 includes financial guarantee and specialty P&C of $1,538 and $32, respectively. Subrogation recoverable includes financial guarantee and specialty P&C of $(2,092) and $—, respectively. All balances at December 31, 2020 relate to the financial guarantee business
Financial Guarantee:
Ambac has exposure to various bond types issued in the debt capital markets. Our experience has shown that, for the majority of bond types, we have not experienced significant claims. The bond types that have experienced significant claims, including through commutations, are residential mortgage-backed securities (“RMBS”), student loan securities and public finance securities. These bond types represent 93% of our ever-to-date insurance claims recorded with RMBS comprising 74%.
The table below indicates gross par outstanding and the components of gross loss and loss expense reserves related to policies in Ambac’s gross loss and loss expense reserves at December 31, 2021 and 2020:
| Present Value of Expected Net Cash Flows | Unearned Premium Revenue | Gross Loss and Loss Expense Reserves (1)(2) | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ in millions) | Gross Par Outstanding (1)(2) | Claims and Loss Expenses | Recoveries | |||||||||||||||
| December 31, 2021: | ||||||||||||||||||
| Structured Finance | $ | 2,371 | $ | 852 | $ | (2,018) | $ | (12) | $ | (1,178) | ||||||||
| Domestic Public Finance | 2,742 | 905 | (312) | (31) | 562 | |||||||||||||
| Other | 1,189 | 35 | (5) | (13) | 17 | |||||||||||||
| Loss expenses | — | 45 | — | — | 45 | |||||||||||||
| Totals | $ | 6,302 | $ | 1,837 | $ | (2,335) | $ | (56) | $ | (554) | ||||||||
| December 31, 2020: | ||||||||||||||||||
| Structured Finance | $ | 2,945 | $ | 940 | $ | (2,136) | $ | (16) | $ | (1,212) | ||||||||
| Domestic Public Finance | 3,016 | 1,112 | (349) | (39) | 724 | |||||||||||||
| Other | 1,612 | 40 | — | (17) | 23 | |||||||||||||
| Loss expenses | — | 68 | — | — | 68 | |||||||||||||
| Totals | $ | 7,573 | $ | 2,160 | $ | (2,485) | $ | (72) | $ | (397) |
(1) Ceded par outstanding on policies with loss reserves and ceded loss and loss expense reserves are $784 and $24, respectively, at December 31, 2021 and $739 and $33, respectively at December 31, 2020. Ceded loss and loss expense reserves are included in Reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses.
(2) Loss reserves are included in the balance sheet as Loss and loss expense reserves or Subrogation recoverable dependent on if a policy is in a net liability or net recoverable position.
The table below reflects the timing of expected financial guarantee claim payments based on deal specific cash flows, excluding expected recoveries. These deal specific cash flows are based on the expected cash flows of the underlying transactions. The timing of expected claim payments for credits with reserves that were established using our statistical loss reserve method is determined based on the weighted average expected life of the exposure. Refer to the Loss Reserves section in Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K for further discussion of our statistical loss reserve method. The timing of these payments may vary significantly from the amounts shown above, especially for credits that are based on our statistical loss reserve method.
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| Payments Due by Period | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ in millions) | Total | Less Than 1 Year | 1 - 3 Years | 3 - 5 Years | More Than 5 Years | |||||||||||||
| Claim payments | $ | 2,095 | $ | 422 | $ | 119 | $ | 109 | $ | 1,445 |
Variability of Expected Losses and Recoveries
Ambac’s management believes loss reserves (present value of expected cash flows, net of recoveries) are adequate to cover future claim payments, but there can be no assurance that the ultimate liability will not be higher than such estimates.
While our loss reserves consider our judgment regarding issuers’ financial flexibility to adapt to adverse markets, they may not adequately capture sudden, unexpected or protracted uncertainty that adversely affects market conditions, such as COVID-19. Accordingly, it is possible that our estimated loss reserves, gross of reinsurance, for financial guarantee insurance policies could be understated. We have attempted to identify possible cash flows related to losses and recoveries using more stressful assumptions than the probability-weighted outcome recorded. The possible net cash flows consider the highest stress scenario that was utilized in the development of our probability-weighted expected loss at December 31, 2021, and assumes an inability to execute any commutation transactions with issuers and/or investors. Such stress scenarios are developed based on management’s view about all possible outcomes relating to losses and recoveries. In arriving at such view, management makes considerable judgments about the possibility of various future events. Although we do not believe it is possible to have stressed outcomes in all cases, it is possible that we could have stress case outcomes in some or even many cases. See “Risk Factors” in Part I, Item 1A of this Form 10-K as well as the descriptions of "Structured Finance Variability," "Public Finance Variability," and "Other Credits, including Ambac UK, Variability," below for further discussion of the risks relating to future losses and recoveries that could result in more highly stressed outcomes appearing below.
The occurrence of these stressed outcomes individually or collectively would have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition and may result in materially adverse consequence for Ambac, including (without limitation) impairing the ability of AAC to honor its financial obligations, particularly its outstanding debt and preferred stock obligations; the initiation of rehabilitation proceedings against AAC; decreased likelihood of AAC delivering value to AFG, through dividends or otherwise; and a significant drop in the value of securities issued or insured by AFG or AAC.
Structured Finance
RMBS:
Changes to assumptions that could make our reserves under-estimated include an increase in interest rates, deterioration in housing prices, poor servicing, government intervention into the functioning of the mortgage market and the effect of a weakened economy characterized by growing unemployment and wage pressures. We utilize a model to project losses in our RMBS exposures and changes to reserves, either upward or downward, are not unlikely if we used a different model or methodology to project losses. In the case of both first and second-lien exposures, the possible stress case assumes a lower housing
price appreciation projection, which in turn drives higher defaults and severities.
We established a representation and warranty subrogation recovery as further discussed in Note 7. Insurance Contracts to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Our ability to realize RMBS representation and warranty recoveries is subject to significant uncertainty, including risks inherent in litigation, collectability of such amounts from counterparties (and/or their respective parents and affiliates), delays in realizing such recoveries, including delays in getting to trial due to court closures caused by COVID-19 or other events, intervention by the OCI, which could impede our ability to take actions required to realize such recoveries, and uncertainty inherent in the assumptions used in estimating such recoveries. Additionally, our R&W actual subrogation recoveries could be significantly lower than our estimate of $1,704, net of reinsurance, as of December 31, 2021, if the sponsors of these transactions: (i) fail to honor their obligations to repurchase the mortgage loans, (ii) successfully dispute our breach findings or claims for damages, (iii) no longer have the financial means to fully satisfy their obligations under the transaction documents, or (iv) our pursuit of recoveries is otherwise unsuccessful due to any of the factors described in this Form 10-K in Part I, Item 1A Risk Factors - Risks Related to Capital, Liquidity and Markets. Failure to realize R&W subrogation recoveries for any reason or the realization of R&W subrogation recoveries materially below the amount recorded on Ambac's consolidated balance sheet would have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.
Student Loans:
Changes to assumptions that could make our reserves under-estimated include, but are not limited to, increases in interest rates, default rates and loss severities on the collateral due to economic or other factors, including the COVID-19 related economic impact. Such factors may include lower recoveries on defaulted loans or additional losses on collateral or trust assets, including as a result of any enforcement actions by the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau.
Structured Finance Variability:
Using the approaches described above, the possible increase in loss reserves for structured finance credits for which we have an estimate of expected loss at December 31, 2021, could be approximately $25. Combined with the absence of any R&W subrogation recoveries, a possible increase in loss reserves for structured finance credits could be approximately $1,729. A loss of this magnitude may render AAC insolvent. Additionally, loss payments are sensitive to changes in interest rates, increasing as interest rates rise. For example, an increase in interest rates of 0.50% could increase our estimate of expected losses by approximately $45. There can be no assurance that losses may not exceed such amounts. Additionally, the
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structured finance portfolio is sensitive to the COVID-19 related forbearances and delinquencies caused by the general economic downturn. Due to the uncertainties related to the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and other risks associated with structured finance credits, there can be no assurance that losses may not exceed our stress case estimates.
Public Finance
Ambac’s U.S. public finance portfolio predominantly consists of municipal bonds such as general and revenue obligations and lease and tax-backed obligations of state and local government entities; however, the portfolio also includes a wide array of non-municipal types of bonds, including financings for not-for-profit entities and transactions with public and private elements, which generally finance infrastructure, housing and other public purpose facilities and interests.
It is possible our loss reserves for public finance credits may be under-estimated if issuers are faced with prolonged exposure to adverse political, judicial, economic, fiscal or socioeconomic events or trends. Additionally, our loss reserves may be under-estimated because of the continuing effects of COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 related economic downturn put a strain on municipal issuers, particularly those dependent upon narrow sources of revenues or dedicated taxes to support debt service, such as hotel occupancy taxes, parking revenues, tolls, etc. While the economy has been in recovery since mid-2020, the lingering impact of the pandemic continues to negatively impact certain of these municipal issuers that are dependent upon narrow sources of revenue. A further prolonged recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic could put additional stresses on these issuers and result in increased defaults and potential additional losses for Ambac.
Our experience with the city of Detroit's bankruptcy and Commonwealth of Puerto Rico's Title III proceedings as well as other municipal bankruptcies demonstrates the preferential treatment of certain creditor classes, especially the public pensions. The cost of pensions and the need to address frequently sizable unfunded or underfunded pensions is often a key driver of stress for many municipalities and their related authorities, including entities to whom we have significant exposure, such as Chicago's school district, the State of New Jersey and many others. Less severe treatment of pension obligations in bankruptcy may lead to worse outcomes for traditional debt creditors.
Variability of outcomes applies to even what are generally considered more secure municipal financings, such as dedicated sales tax revenue bonds that capture sales tax revenues for debt service ahead of any amounts being deposited into the general fund of an issuer. In the case of the Puerto Rico COFINA sales tax bonds that were part of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico's Title III proceedings, AAC and other creditors agreed to settle at a recovery rate equal to about 93% of pre-petition amounts owed on the Ambac insured senior COFINA bonds. In the COFINA case, the senior bonds still received a reduction or "haircut" despite the existence of junior COFINA bonds, which received a recovery rate equal to about 56% of pre-petition amounts owed.
In addition, municipal entities may be more inclined to use bankruptcy to resolve their financial stresses if they believe preferred outcomes for various creditor groups can be achieved.
We expect municipal bankruptcies and defaults to continue to be challenging to project given the unique political, economic, fiscal, legal, governance and public policy differences among municipalities as well as the complexity, long duration and relative infrequency of the cases themselves in forums with a scarcity of legal precedent. Moreover, issuers in Chapter 9 or similar proceedings may obtain judicial rulings and orders that impair creditors' rights or their ability to collect on amounts owed. In certain cases, judicial decisions may be contrary to AAC's expectations or understanding of the law or its rights thereunder, which may lead to worse outcomes in Chapter 9 or similar proceedings than anticipated at the outset.
Another potentially adverse development that could cause the loss reserves on our public finance credits to be underestimated is deterioration in the municipal bond market, resulting from reduced or limited access to alternative forms of credit (such as bank loans) or other exogenous factors, such as changes in tax law that could reduce certain municipal investors' appetite for tax-exempt municipal bonds or put pressure on issuers in states with high state and local taxes. These factors could deprive issuers access to funding at a level necessary to avoid defaulting on their obligations.
Ambac’s exposures to the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico across various instrumentalities and issuers are all now subject to plan support agreements and plans of adjustment or qualifying modifications. The Eighth Amended POA has been confirmed, and the PRIFA QM and the CCDA QM have been approved. All are expected to become effective on or before March 15, 2022. However, uncertainty remains as to (i) whether the effective date will be stayed pending the appeal of the order confirming Eighth Amended POA; (ii) the result of the pending First Circuit appeal of the order confirming the Eighth Amended POA; (iii) the value or perceived value of the consideration provided by or on behalf of the debtors under the Eighth Amended POA, PRIFA QM, and CCDA QM; (iv) the extent to which exposure management strategies, such as commutation and acceleration, will be executed; (v) the tax treatment of the consideration provided by or on behalf of the debtors under the Eighth Amended POA, PRIFA QM, and CCDA QM; (vi) whether and when the PRHTA POA will be confirmed; and (vii) other factors, including market conditions such as interest rate movements, credit spread changes on the new GO and CVI instruments, and liquidity for the new GO and CVI instruments. Losses may exceed current reserves in a material manner due to favorable or unfavorable developments or results with respect to these factors. See Note 19. Commitments and Contingencies to the Consolidated Financial Statements in Part II, Item 8 and "Financial Guarantees in Force" section of Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations included in Part II, Item 7 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further updates relating to Puerto Rico.
Material additional losses on our public finance credits caused by the aforementioned factors, including the possibility of a protracted recovery related to the COVID-19 crisis would have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. For the public finance credits, including Puerto Rico, for which we have an estimate of expected loss at December 31, 2021, the possible increase in loss reserves could be approximately $355 and there can be no assurance that losses may not exceed our stress case estimates.
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Other Credits, including Ambac UK, Variability
It is possible our loss reserves on other types of credits, including those insured by Ambac UK, may be under-estimated because of various risks that vary widely, including the risk that we may not be able to recover or mitigate losses through our remediation processes. For all other credits, including Ambac UK, for which we have an estimate of expected loss, the sum of all the highest stress case loss scenarios is approximately $370 greater than the loss reserves at December 31, 2021. Additionally, our loss reserves may be under-estimated as a result of the ultimate scope, duration and magnitude of the effects of COVID-19. There can be no assurance that losses may not exceed our stress case estimates.
Long-term Debt.
Long-term debt consists of surplus notes issued by AAC, the Sitka AAC Note (which refinanced the LSNI Ambac Note), the Tier 2 Notes issued in connection with the Rehabilitation Exit Transactions (as defined in Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 of this Form 10-K), and Ambac UK debt issued in connection with the 2019 commutation of its exposure with respect to Ballantyne Re plc. The carrying value of each of these as of December 31, 2021 and 2020 is below:
| ($ in millions) December 31, | 2021 | 2020 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surplus Notes (1) | $ | 729 | $ | 778 | |||
| LSNI Ambac Note | — | 1,641 | |||||
| Sitka AAC Note | 1,154 | — | |||||
| Tier 2 Notes | 333 | 306 | |||||
| Ambac UK Debt | 15 | 14 | |||||
| Total Long-term Debt | $ | 2,230 | $ | 2,739 |
(1) Includes Junior Surplus Notes as of December 31, 2020. All Junior Surplus Notes were retired in 2021.
The decrease in long-term debt from December 31, 2020 resulted from the impact of the Secured Note Refinancing and 2021 Surplus Note Exchanges, described further in Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, partially offset by issuances of surplus notes from AFG sales, accretion on the carrying value of surplus notes and Ambac UK debt and paid-in-kind interest on Tier 2 Notes.
Subject to internal and regulatory guidelines, market conditions and other constraints, Ambac may opportunistically purchase or sell surplus notes and/or other Ambac issued securities, and may consider opportunities to exchange securities issued by it from time to time (including newly issued securities) for other securities issued by it.
Redeemable Noncontrolling Interest. The increase during 2021 was the result of the remeasurement of the redemption value of the put option provided to the minority owners (noncontrolling interest holders) of Xchange as if it were exercisable on December 31, 2021. Refer to Note 3. Business Combination for further information relating to this acquisition.
ACCOUNTING STANDARDS
The following accounting standards have been issued, but have not yet been adopted. We do not expect these accounting standards to have a consequential impact on Ambac's financial statements.
Equity-classified Written Call Options
In May 2021, the FASB issued ASU 2021-04, Issuer's Accounting for Certain Modifications or Exchanges of Freestanding Equity-Classified Written Call Options. The ASU clarifies and reduces diversity in practice for an issuer's accounting for modifications or exchanges of equity-classified written call options (e.g. warrants) that remain equity-classified after the modification or exchange. The ASU requires an issuer to account for the modification or exchange based on the economic substance of the transaction. For example, if the modification or exchange is related to the issuance of debt or equity, any change in the fair value of the written call option would be accounted for as part of the debt issuance cost in accordance with the debt guidance or equity issuance cost in accordance with the equity guidance, respectively. The ASU is effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2021, with early adoption permitted. Ambac will adopt this ASU on January 1, 2022.
Convertible Instruments and Contracts in an Entity's Own Equity
In August 2020, the FASB issued ASU 2020-06, Accounting for Convertible Instruments and Contracts in an Entity's Own Equity. The ASU i) simplifies the accounting for convertible debt and convertible preferred stock by reducing the number of accounting models, and amends certain disclosures, ii) amends and simplifies the derivative scope exception guidance for contracts in an entity's own equity, including share-based compensation, and iii) amends the diluted earnings per share calculations for convertible instruments and contracts in an entity's own equity. The ASU is effective for fiscal years ending after December 15, 2021, with early adoption permitted. Ambac will adopt this ASU on January 1, 2022.
Please refer to Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, for a discussion of the impact of other recent accounting pronouncements on Ambac’s financial condition and results of operations.
U.S. STATUTORY BASIS FINANCIAL RESULTS ($ in millions)
AFG's U.S. insurance subsidiaries prepare financial statements under accounting practices prescribed or permitted by its domiciliary state regulator (“SAP”) for determining and reporting the financial condition and results of operations of an insurance company. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (“NAIC”) Accounting Practices and Procedures manual (“NAIC SAP”) is adopted as a component of prescribed practices by each domiciliary state. For further information, see Note 8. Insurance Regulatory Restrictions to the Consolidated
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Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report Form 10-K.
Ambac Assurance Corporation
AAC’s statutory policyholder surplus and qualified statutory capital (defined as the sum of policyholders surplus and mandatory contingency reserves) were $757 and $1,322 at December 31, 2021, respectively, as compared to $865 and $1,413 at December 31, 2020, respectively. As of December 31, 2021, statutory policyholder surplus and qualified statutory capital included $853 principal balance of surplus notes outstanding and $138 liquidation preference of preferred stock outstanding. These surplus notes (including related accrued interest of $625 that is not recorded under statutory basis accounting principles); preferred stock; and all other liabilities, including insurance claims, $1,175 principal balance of Sitka AAC Notes (refinanced the LSNI Ambac Note as described in Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K) and $333 principal balance of Tier 2 Notes are obligations that, individually and collectively, have claims on the resources of AAC that are senior to AFG's equity and therefore impede AFG's ability to realize residual value and/or receive dividends from AAC.
The significant drivers to the net decrease in policyholder surplus were statutory net losses of $127 for the year ended December 31, 2021 and contributions to contingency reserves of $17, partially offset by an increase in the fair value of pooled investments of $35.
AAC’s statutory surplus is sensitive to multiple factors, including: (i) loss reserve development, (ii) payments on surplus notes, if approved by OCI, (iii) on-going interest costs associated with the Sitka AAC Note and Tier 2 Notes, including changes to the interest rates as the Sitka AAC Note is a floating rate obligation, (iv) deterioration in the financial position of AAC subsidiaries that have their obligations guaranteed by AAC, (v) first time payment defaults of insured obligations, which increase statutory loss reserves, (vi) commutations of insurance policies or credit derivative contracts at amounts that differ from the amount of liabilities recorded, (vii) reinsurance contract terminations at amounts that differ from net assets recorded, (viii) changes to the fair value of pooled fund and other investments carried at fair value, (ix) settlements of representation and warranty breach claims at amounts that differ from amounts recorded, including failures to collect such amounts, (x) realized gains and losses, including losses arising from other than temporary impairments of investment securities, and (xi) future changes to prescribed SAP practices by the OCI.
The significant differences between GAAP and SAP are that under SAP:
•Loss reserves are only established for losses on guaranteed obligations that have experienced a payment default in an amount that is sufficient to cover the present value of the anticipated defaulted debt service payments over the expected period of default, less estimated recoveries under subrogation rights (5.1% as prescribed by OCI). Under GAAP, in addition to the establishment of loss reserves for defaulted obligations, loss reserves are established (net of GAAP basis unearned premium revenue) for obligations
that have experienced credit deterioration, but have not yet defaulted using a weighted-average risk-free discount rate, currently at 1.2%.
•Mandatory contingency reserves are required based upon the type of obligation insured, whereas GAAP does not require such a reserve. Releases of the contingency reserves are generally subject to OCI approval and relate to a determination that the held reserves are deemed excessive.
•Investment grade fixed maturity investments are stated at amortized cost and certain below investment grade fixed maturity investments are reported at the lower of amortized cost or fair value. Under GAAP, all fixed maturity investments are reported at fair value.
•Wholly owned subsidiaries are not consolidated; rather, the equity basis of accounting is utilized and the carrying values of these investments are subject to admissibility tests.
•Variable interest entities ("VIE") are not required to be assessed for consolidation. Under GAAP, a reporting entity that has both the following characteristics is required to consolidate the VIE: a) the power to direct the activities of the VIE that most significantly impact the VIE’s economic performance and b) the obligation to absorb losses of the VIE or the right to receive benefits from the VIE that could potentially be significant to the VIE. AAC generally has the obligation to absorb losses of VIEs that could potentially be significant to the VIE as the result of its guarantee of insured obligations issued by VIEs. For certain VIEs AAC has the power to direct the most significant activities of the VIE and accordingly consolidates the related VIEs under GAAP.
•All payments of principal and interest on the surplus notes are subject to the approval of the OCI. Unpaid interest due on the surplus notes is expensed when the approval for payment of interest has been granted by the OCI. Under GAAP, interest on surplus notes is accrued regardless of OCI approval.
•Upfront premiums written are earned on a basis proportionate to the remaining scheduled debt service to the original total principal and interest insured. Installment premiums are reflected in income pro-rata over the period covered by the premium payment. Under GAAP, premium revenues for both upfront and installment premiums are earned over the life of the financial guarantee contract in proportion to the insured principal amount outstanding at each reporting date.
•Insurance intangibles that arose as a result of the implementation of Fresh Start reporting are not a concept within SAP. This insurance intangible asset is amortized as an expense on a level yield basis over the life of the related insurance risks.
•Unearned premiums and loss reserves are presented net of ceded amounts, while under GAAP, they are reflected gross of ceded amounts.
Everspan Indemnity Insurance Company
Everspan Indemnity Insurance Company’s statutory policyholder surplus was $106 at December 31, 2021, as compared to $26 at December 31, 2020.
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The significant drivers to the increase in policyholder surplus for the year ended December 31, 2021 were capital contributions of $92 partially offset by operating expenses and changes in investment in subsidiaries, primarily due to a limitation on the amount of goodwill that may be admitted in accordance with SAP.
The significant differences between GAAP and SAP are that under SAP:
•Investment grade fixed maturity investments are stated at amortized cost and certain below investment grade fixed maturity investments are reported at the lower of amortized cost or fair value. Under GAAP, all fixed maturity investments are reported at fair value.
•Wholly owned subsidiaries are not consolidated; rather, the equity basis of accounting is utilized and the carrying values of these investments are subject to admissibility tests.
•The acquisition of PWIC was recorded as an equity method investment, which includes a goodwill component representing the acquisition cost in excess of PWIC's statutory surplus. Goodwill will be amortized over a period not to exceed ten years. Under GAAP, the acquisition of PWIC was recorded as an asset acquisition, which requires i) all net assets to initially be recorded at fair value and ii) the acquisition cost in excess of the fair value of net assets to be allocated to the bases of certain types of assets based on their relative fair values, if applicable. No goodwill is recorded for asset acquisitions.
AMBAC UK FINANCIAL RESULTS UNDER UK ACCOUNTING PRINCIPLES
(£ in millions)
Ambac UK is required to prepare financial statements under FRS 102 "The Financial Reporting Standard applicable in the UK and Republic of Ireland." Ambac UK’s shareholder funds under UK GAAP were £444 at December 31, 2021, as compared to £412 at December 31, 2020. At December 31, 2021, the carrying value of cash and investments was £500, a increase from £481 at December 31, 2020. The increase in shareholders’ funds and cash and investments was primarily due to the continued receipt of premiums and investment income, partially offset by loss expenses, foreign exchange losses within Ambac UK's investment portfolio, operating expense and tax payments.
The significant differences between US GAAP and UK GAAP are that under UK GAAP:
•Loss reserves are only established for losses on guaranteed obligations when, in the judgment of management, a monetary default in the timely payment of debt service is likely to occur, which would result in Ambac UK incurring a loss. A loss provision is established in an amount that is sufficient to cover the present value of the anticipated defaulted debt service payments over the expected period of default, less estimated recoveries under subrogation rights. The discount rate is equal to the lower of the rate of return on invested assets for either the current year or the period covering the current year plus the four previous years, currently at 4.7%. Under U.S. GAAP, loss reserves are established (net of US GAAP basis unearned premium
revenue) for obligations that have experienced credit deterioration, but have not yet defaulted using a weighted-average risk-free discount rate.
•Investments in fixed maturity securities are stated at amortized cost, subject to an other-than-temporary impairment evaluation. Under US GAAP, all bonds are reported at fair value.
•VIEs are not required to be assessed for consolidation. Under US GAAP, as noted under AAC Statutory Basis Financial Results above, VIE's with certain characteristics are required to be consolidated. For several VIEs Ambac UK has the power to direct the most significant activities of the VIE and accordingly consolidates the related VIEs under U.S. GAAP.
•Upfront premiums written are earned on a basis proportionate to the remaining scheduled debt service to the total principal and interest insured. Installment premiums are reflected in income pro-rata over the period covered by the premium payment. Under US GAAP, premium revenues for both upfront and installment premiums are earned over the life of the financial guarantee contract in proportion to the insured principal amount outstanding at each reporting date.
•Insurance intangibles that arose as a result of the implementation of Fresh Start reporting is not a concept within UK GAAP. Under US GAAP, this insurance intangible asset is amortized as an expense on a level yield basis over the life of the related insurance risks.
•Unearned premiums and loss reserves are presented net of ceded amounts, while under GAAP, they are reflected gross of ceded amounts.
Ambac UK is also required to prepare financial information in accordance with the Solvency II Directive. The basis of preparation of this information is significantly different from both US GAAP and UK GAAP. The calculation of capital resources, regulatory capital requirements and regulatory capital surplus / deficit under Solvency II at December 31, 2021, will be published on Ambac's website during March 2022. Final annual Solvency II data and Ambac UK's annual Solvency and Financial Condition Report will be published on Ambac's website during April 2022.
Available capital resources under Solvency II were a surplus of £245 at September 30, 2021, the most recently published position, of which £237 are eligible to meet solvency capital requirements. This is an increase from December 31, 2020, when available capital resources were a surplus of £196 of which £184 were eligible to meet solvency capital requirements. Eligible capital resources at September 30, 2021 and December 31, 2020, are in comparison to regulatory capital requirements of £247 and £256, respectively. Therefore, Ambac UK was in a deficit position in terms of compliance with applicable regulatory capital requirements by £10 at September 30, 2021 and was deficient in terms of compliance by £72 at December 31, 2020. The deficit was reduced as at September 30, 2021, due to the combined impact of (i) the increase in long term interest rates, which resulted in a decrease in technical provision liabilities and hence an increase in eligible own funds and (ii) a decrease in capital requirements for non-life risk due to the maturity and de-risking of certain policies, together with
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natural run-off of the insured portfolio in the year. The regulators are fully aware of the deficiency in capital resources as compared to capital requirements as at September 30, 2021 and dialogue between Ambac UK management and its regulators remains ongoing with respect to options for strengthening the capital position further.
NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
($ in millions)
In addition to reporting the Company's financial results under GAAP, the Company currently reports two non-GAAP financial measures: adjusted earnings and adjusted book value. The most directly comparable GAAP measures are net income attributable to common stockholders for adjusted earnings and Total Ambac Financial Group, Inc. stockholders’ equity for adjusted book value. A non-GAAP financial measure is a numerical measure of financial performance or financial position that excludes (or includes) amounts that are included in (or excluded from) the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP. We are presenting these non-GAAP financial measures because they provide greater transparency and enhanced visibility into the underlying drivers of our business. Adjusted earnings and adjusted book value are not substitutes for the Company’s GAAP reporting, should not be viewed in isolation and may differ from similar reporting provided by other companies, which may define non-GAAP measures differently.
Ambac has a significant U.S. tax net operating loss (“NOL”) that is offset by a full valuation allowance in the GAAP consolidated financial statements. As a result of this and other considerations, we utilized a 0% effective tax rate for non-GAAP adjustments; which is subject to change.
The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure and describe why it is useful. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is also presented below.
Adjusted Earnings (Loss). Adjusted earnings (loss) is defined as net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders, as reported under GAAP, adjusted on an after-tax basis for the following:
•Non-credit impairment fair value (gain) loss on credit derivatives: Elimination of the non-credit impairment fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated credit losses. Such fair value adjustments are affected by, and in part fluctuate with changes in market factors such as interest rates and credit spreads, including the market’s perception of Ambac’s credit risk (“Ambac CVA”), and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. These adjustments allow for all financial guarantee contracts to be accounted for consistent with the Financial Services – Insurance Topic of ASC, whether or not they are subject to derivative accounting rules. This adjustment has become negligible and we will discontinue reporting it beginning in the first quarter of 2022.
•Insurance intangible amortization: Elimination of the amortization of the financial guarantee insurance intangible asset that arose as a result of Ambac’s emergence from bankruptcy and the implementation of Fresh Start reporting. This adjustment ensures that all financial guarantee contracts are accounted for consistent with the provisions of the Financial Services – Insurance Topic of the ASC.
•Foreign exchange (gains) losses: Elimination of the foreign exchange gains (losses) on the re-measurement of assets, liabilities and transactions in non-functional currencies. This adjustment eliminates the foreign exchange gains (losses) on all assets, liabilities and transactions in non-functional currencies, which enables users of our financial statements to better view the results without the impact of fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates and facilitates period-to-period comparisons of Ambac's operating performance.
The following table reconciles net income attributable to common stockholders to the non-GAAP measure, Adjusted Earnings on a total dollar amount and per diluted share basis, for all periods presented:
| 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ in millions, except per share data) Year Ended December 31, | $ Amount | Per Diluted Share | $ Amount | Per Diluted Share | $ Amount | Per Diluted Share | ||||||||||||||||
| Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders | $ | (17) | $ | (0.61) | $ | (437) | $ | (9.47) | $ | (216) | $ | (4.69) | ||||||||||
| Adjustments: | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Non-credit impairment fair value (gain) loss on credit derivatives | — | — | — | — | (1) | (0.03) | ||||||||||||||||
| Insurance intangible amortization | 52 | 1.12 | 57 | 1.23 | 295 | 6.43 | ||||||||||||||||
| Foreign exchange (gains) losses | 7 | 0.15 | 3 | 0.06 | (12) | (0.26) | ||||||||||||||||
| Adjusted Earnings (Loss) (1) | $ | 43 | $ | 0.66 | $ | (378) | $ | (8.19) | $ | 66 | $ | 1.44 |
(1)Adjusted earnings per diluted share is calculated as adjusted earnings less the change in the redemption value of redeemable noncontrolling interest, divided by the GAAP weighted average number of diluted shares outstanding.
Adjusted Book Value. Adjusted book value is defined as Total Ambac Financial Group, Inc. stockholders’ equity as reported under GAAP, adjusted for after-tax impact of the following:
•Non-credit impairment fair value losses on credit derivatives: Elimination of the non-credit impairment fair value loss on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated
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economic credit loss. GAAP fair values are affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market factors such as interest rates, credit spreads, including Ambac’s CVA that are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. These adjustments allow for all financial guarantee contracts to be accounted for within adjusted book value consistent with the provisions of the Financial Services—Insurance Topic of the ASC, whether or not they are subject to derivative accounting rules. This adjustment has become negligible and we will discontinue reporting it beginning in the first quarter of 2022.
•Insurance intangible asset: Elimination of the financial guarantee insurance intangible asset that arose as a result of Ambac’s emergence from bankruptcy and the implementation of Fresh Start reporting. This adjustment ensures that all financial guarantee contracts are accounted for within adjusted book value consistent with the provisions of the Financial Services—Insurance Topic of the ASC.
•Net unearned premiums and fees in excess of expected losses: Addition of the value of the unearned premium revenue ("UPR") on financial guarantee contracts, in excess of expected losses, net of reinsurance. This non-GAAP adjustment presents the economics of UPR and expected
losses for financial guarantee contracts on a consistent basis. In accordance with GAAP, stockholders’ equity reflects a reduction for expected losses only to the extent they exceed UPR. However, when expected losses are less than UPR for a financial guarantee contract, neither expected losses nor UPR have an impact on stockholders’ equity. This non-GAAP adjustment adds UPR in excess of expected losses, net of reinsurance, to stockholders’ equity for financial guarantee contracts where expected losses are less than UPR. This adjustment is only made for financial guarantee contracts since such premiums are non-refundable.
•Net unrealized investment (gains) losses in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income: Elimination of the unrealized gains and losses on the Company’s investments that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (“AOCI”). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio may differ from realized gains and losses ultimately recognized by the Company based on the Company’s investment strategy. This adjustment only allows for such gains and losses in adjusted book value when realized.
The following table reconciles Total Ambac Financial Group, Inc. stockholders’ equity to the non-GAAP measure Adjusted Book Value on a dollar amount and per share basis, for all periods presented:
| 2021 | 2020 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ in millions, except per share data) December 31, | $ Amount | Per Share | $ Amount | Per Share | ||||||||||
| Total Ambac Financial Group, Inc. stockholders’ equity | $ | 1,038 | $ | 22.42 | $ | 1,080 | $ | 23.57 | ||||||
| Adjustments: | ||||||||||||||
| Non-credit impairment fair value losses on credit derivatives | — | 0.01 | — | 0.01 | ||||||||||
| Insurance intangible asset | (320) | (6.91) | (373) | (8.14) | ||||||||||
| Net unearned premiums and fees in excess of expected losses | 310 | 6.68 | 378 | 8.24 | ||||||||||
| Net unrealized investment (gains) losses in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (Loss) | (154) | (3.32) | (166) | (3.63) | ||||||||||
| Adjusted Book Value | $ | 874 | $ | 18.88 | $ | 919 | $ | 20.05 |
The decrease in Adjusted Book was primarily attributable to the $10 reduction to retained earnings from the increase to the carrying value of redeemable NCI, the impact on expected future premiums from reinsurance and de-risking transactions partially offset by Adjusted earnings for the year ended December 31, 2021 (excluding earned premium previously included in Adjusted Book Value).
Factors that impact changes to Adjusted Book Value include many of the same factors that impact Adjusted Earnings, including the majority of revenues and expenses, but generally exclude components of premium earnings since they are embedded in prior period's Adjusted Book Value through the net unearned premiums and fees in excess of expected losses adjustment. Net unearned premiums and fees in excess of expected losses will affect Adjusted Book Value for (i) changes to future premium assumptions (e.g. expected term, interest rates, foreign currency rates, time passage) and (ii) changes to expected losses for policies which do not exceed their related unearned premiums and (iii) new reinsurance transactions.