NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH)

Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

The following analysis should be read in conjunction with our unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements and the notes thereto included in this report and our audited financial statements, notes thereto and “Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” included in our 2025 10-K, as well as the “Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms” above, for a more complete understanding of our financial position and results of operations. In addition, investors should review the “Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements” above and the “Risk Factors” detailed in Part II, Item 1A of this report and in Part I, Item 1A of our 2025 10-K, as subsequently updated in other reports we file with the SEC, for a discussion of those risks and uncertainties that have the potential to affect our business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows or prospects in a material and adverse manner. Our results of operations for interim periods are not necessarily indicative of results to be expected for a full fiscal year or for any other period.

Overview

We provide private MI through our primary insurance subsidiary, NMIC. NMIC is wholly-owned, domiciled in Wisconsin and principally regulated by the Wisconsin OCI. NMIC is approved as an MI provider by the GSEs and is licensed to write coverage in all 50 states and D.C. Our subsidiary, NMIS, provides outsourced loan review services to mortgage loan originators and our subsidiary, Re One, historically provided reinsurance coverage to NMIC in accordance with certain statutory risk retention requirements. Such requirements have been repealed and the reinsurance coverage provided by Re One to NMIC has been commuted. Re One remains a wholly-owned, licensed insurance subsidiary; however, it does not currently have active insurance exposures.

MI protects lenders and investors from default-related losses on a portion of the unpaid principal balance of a covered mortgage. MI plays a critical role in the U.S. housing market by mitigating mortgage credit risk and facilitating the secondary market sale of high-LTV (i.e., above 80%) residential loans to the GSEs, who are otherwise restricted by their charters from purchasing or guaranteeing high-LTV mortgages that are not covered by certain credit protections. Such credit protection and secondary market sales allow lenders to increase their capacity for mortgage commitments and expand financing access to existing and prospective homeowners.

NMIH, a Delaware corporation, was incorporated in May 2011, and we began start-up operations in 2012 and wrote our first MI policy in 2013. Since formation, we have sought to establish customer relationships with a broad group of mortgage lenders and build a diversified, high-quality insured portfolio. As of March 31, 2026, we had issued master policies with 2,209 customers, including national and regional mortgage banks, money center banks, credit unions, community banks, builder-owned mortgage lenders, internet-sourced lenders and other non-bank lenders. As of March 31, 2026, we had $222.3 billion of primary IIF and $59.5 billion of primary RIF.

We believe that our success in acquiring a large and diverse group of lender customers and growing a portfolio of high-quality IIF traces to our founding principles, whereby we aim to help qualified individuals achieve their homeownership goals, ensure that we remain a strong and credible counter-party, deliver a high-quality customer service experience, establish a differentiated risk management approach that emphasizes the individual underwriting review or validation of the vast majority of the loans we insure, utilizing our proprietary Rate GPS® pricing platform to dynamically evaluate risk and price our policies, and foster a culture of collaboration and excellence that helps us attract and retain experienced industry leaders.

Our strategy is to continue to build on our position in the private MI market, expand our customer base and grow our insured portfolio of high-quality residential loans by focusing on long-term customer relationships, disciplined and proactive risk selection and pricing, fair and transparent claim payment practices, responsive customer service, and financial strength and profitability.

Our common stock trades on the Nasdaq under the symbol “NMIH.” Our headquarters is located in Emeryville, California. As of March 31, 2026, we had 225 employees. Our corporate website is located at www.nationalmi.com. Our website and the information contained on or accessible through our website are not incorporated by reference into this report.

We discuss below our results of operations for the periods presented, as well as the conditions and trends that have impacted or are expected to impact our business, including new insurance writings, the composition of our insurance portfolio and other factors that we expect to impact our results.

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Conditions and Trends Affecting Our Business

Macroeconomic Developments

Macroeconomic factors, including persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, flagging consumer confidence and increasing jobless claims could have a pronounced impact on the housing market, the mortgage insurance industry and our business in future periods. A marked decline in housing demand, a significant and protracted decrease in house prices or a sustained increase in unemployment could reduce the pace of new business activity in the private mortgage insurance market and negatively impact our future NIW volume, or contribute to an increase in our future default and claim experience.

Key Factors Affecting Our Results

New Insurance Written, Insurance-In-Force and Risk-In-Force

NIW is the aggregate unpaid principal balance of mortgages underpinning new policies written during a given period. Our NIW is affected by the overall size of the mortgage origination market and the volume of high-LTV mortgage originations. Our NIW is also affected by the percentage of such high-LTV originations covered by private versus government MI or other alternative credit enhancement structures and our share of the private MI market. NIW, together with persistency, drives our IIF. IIF is the aggregate unpaid principal balance of the mortgages we insure, as reported to us by servicers at a given date, and represents the sum total of NIW from all prior periods less principal payments on insured mortgages and policy cancellations (including for prepayment, nonpayment of premiums, coverage rescission and claim payments). RIF is related to IIF and represents the aggregate amount of coverage we provide on all outstanding policies at a given date. RIF is calculated as the sum total of the coverage percentage of each individual policy in our portfolio applied to the unpaid principal balance of such insured mortgage. RIF is affected by IIF and the LTV profile of our insured mortgages, with lower LTV loans generally having a lower coverage percentage and higher LTV loans having a higher coverage percentage. Gross RIF represents RIF before consideration of reinsurance. Net RIF is gross RIF net of ceded reinsurance.

Net Premiums Written and Net Premiums Earned

We set our premium rates on individual policies based on the risk characteristics of the underlying mortgage loans and borrowers, and in accordance with our filed rates and applicable rating rules. We primarily price our policies through a proprietary risk-based pricing platform, which we refer to as Rate GPS®. Rate GPS® considers a broad range of individual and layered risk variables, including borrower credit, loan-level, product and lender attributes, as well as market and geographic factors, and provides us with the ability to set and charge premium rates commensurate with the underlying risk of each loan that we insure. We also offer a rate card pricing option to a limited number of lender customers when required for business process reasons. We believe that the utilization of Rate GPS® provides us with a more granular and analytical approach to evaluating and pricing risk, and that this approach enhances our ability to continue building a high-quality mortgage insurance portfolio and delivering attractive risk-adjusted returns.

Premiums are generally fixed for the duration of our coverage of the underlying loans. Net premiums written are equal to gross premiums written minus ceded premiums written under our reinsurance arrangements, less premium refunds and premium write-offs. As a result, net premiums written are generally influenced by:

•NIW;

•premium rates and the mix of premium payment type, which are either single, monthly or annual premiums, as described below;

•cancellation rates of our insurance policies, which are impacted by payments or prepayments on mortgages, refinancings (which are affected by prevailing mortgage interest rates as compared to interest rates on loans underpinning our in force policies), levels of claim payments and home prices; and

•cession of premiums under third-party reinsurance arrangements.

Premiums are paid either by the borrower (BPMI) or the lender (LPMI) in a single payment at origination (single premium), on a monthly installment basis (monthly premium) or on an annual installment basis (annual premium). Our net premiums written will differ from our net premiums earned due to policy payment type. For single premiums, we receive a single premium payment at origination, which is earned over the estimated life of the policy. Substantially all of our single premium policies in force as of March 31, 2026 were non-refundable under most cancellation scenarios. If non-refundable single premium policies are canceled, we immediately recognize the remaining unearned premium balances as earned premium revenue. Monthly

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premiums are recognized in the month billed and when the coverage is effective. Annual premiums are earned on a straight-line basis over the year of coverage. Substantially all of our policies provide for either single or monthly premiums.

The percentage of IIF that remains on our books after any twelve-month period is defined as our persistency rate. Because our insurance premiums are earned over the life of a policy, higher persistency rates can have a significant impact on our net premiums earned and profitability. Generally, faster speeds of mortgage prepayment lead to lower persistency. Prepayment speeds and the relative mix of business between single and monthly premium policies also impact our profitability. Our premium rates include certain assumptions regarding repayment or prepayment speeds of the mortgages underlying our policies. Because premiums are paid at origination on single premium policies and our single premium policies are generally non-refundable on cancellation, assuming all other factors remain constant, if single premium loans are prepaid earlier than expected, our profitability on these loans is likely to increase and, if loans are repaid slower than expected, our profitability on these loans is likely to decrease. By contrast, if monthly premium loans are repaid earlier than anticipated, we do not earn any more premium with respect to those loans and, unless we replace the repaid monthly premium loan with a new loan at the same premium rate or higher, our revenue is likely to decline.

Effect of Reinsurance on Our Results

We utilize third-party reinsurance to actively manage our risk, ensure compliance with PMIERs, state regulatory and other applicable capital requirements, and support the growth of our business. We currently have both quota share and excess-of-loss reinsurance agreements in place, which impact our results of operations and regulatory capital and PMIERs asset positions. Under a quota share reinsurance agreement, the reinsurer receives a premium in exchange for covering an agreed-upon portion of inc

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Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

The following analysis of our financial condition and results of operations should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements and notes thereto included below in Item 8 of this report and the Risk Factors included above in Part I, Item 1A of this report. In addition, investors should review the “Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements” and the “Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms” above.

Overview

We provide private MI through our primary insurance subsidiary, NMIC. NMIC is wholly-owned, domiciled in Wisconsin and principally regulated by the Wisconsin OCI. NMIC is approved as an MI provider by the GSEs and is licensed to write coverage in all 50 states and D.C. Our subsidiary, NMIS, provides outsourced loan review services to mortgage loan originators and our subsidiary, Re One, historically provided reinsurance coverage to NMIC in accordance with certain statutory risk retention requirements. Such requirements have been repealed and the reinsurance coverage provided by Re One to NMIC has been commuted. Re One remains a wholly-owned, licensed insurance subsidiary; however, it does not currently have active insurance exposures.

MI protects lenders and investors from default-related losses on a portion of the unpaid principal balance of a covered mortgage. MI plays a critical role in the U.S. housing market by mitigating mortgage credit risk and facilitating the secondary market sale of high-LTV (i.e., above 80%) residential loans to the GSEs, who are otherwise restricted by their charters from purchasing or guaranteeing high-LTV mortgages that are not covered by certain credit protections. Such credit protection and secondary market sales allow lenders to increase their capacity for mortgage commitments and expand financing access to existing and prospective homeowners.

NMIH, a Delaware corporation, was incorporated in May 2011, and we began start-up operations in 2012 and wrote our first MI policy in 2013. Since formation, we have sought to establish customer relationships with a broad group of mortgage lenders and build a diversified, high-quality insured portfolio. As of December 31, 2025, we had issued master policies with 2,193 customers, including national and regional mortgage banks, money center banks, credit unions, community banks, builder-owned mortgage lenders, internet-sourced lenders and other non-bank lenders. As of December 31, 2025, we had $221.4 billion of primary IIF and $59.3 billion of primary RIF.

We believe that our success in acquiring a large and diverse group of lender customers and growing a portfolio of high-quality IIF traces to our founding principles, whereby we aim to help qualified individuals achieve their homeownership goals, ensure that we remain a strong and credible counter-party, deliver a high-quality customer service experience, establish a differentiated risk management approach that emphasizes the individual underwriting review or validation of the vast majority of the loans we insure, utilizing our proprietary Rate GPS® pricing platform to dynamically evaluate risk and price our policies, and foster a culture of collaboration and excellence that helps us attract and retain experienced industry leaders.

Our strategy is to continue to build on our position in the private MI market, expand our customer base and grow our insured portfolio of high-quality residential loans by focusing on long-term customer relationships, disciplined and proactive risk selection and pricing, fair and transparent claim payment practices, responsive customer service, and financial strength and profitability.

Our common stock trades on the Nasdaq under the symbol “NMIH.” Our headquarters is located in Emeryville, California. As of December 31, 2025, we had 225 employees. Our corporate website is located at www.nationalmi.com. Our website and the information contained on or accessible through our website are not incorporated by reference into this report.

We discuss below our results of operations for the periods presented, as well as the conditions and trends that have impacted or are expected to impact our business, including new insurance writings, the composition of our insurance portfolio and other factors that we expect to impact our results.

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Conditions and Trends Affecting Our Business

Macroeconomic Developments

Macroeconomic factors, including persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, flagging consumer confidence and increasing jobless claims could have a pronounced impact on the housing market, the mortgage insurance industry and our business in future periods. A marked decline in housing demand, a significant and protracted decrease in house prices or a sustained increase in unemployment could reduce the pace of new business activity in the private mortgage insurance market and negatively impact our future NIW volume, or contribute to an increase in our future default and claim experience.

Key Factors Affecting Our Results

Customer Development

We have important relationships with customers across all categories and allocation profiles, including National Accounts and Regional Accounts, and centralized and decentralized lenders. Our sales and marketing efforts are broadly focused on expanding our presence with existing customers and activating new customer relationships. We consider an activation to be the point at which we have signed a Master Policy, established IT connectivity and generated a first application or first dollar of NIW from a customer. During the year ended December 31, 2025, we activated 90 lenders, compared to 118 and 70 for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively. We also continued to expand our business with existing customers, deepening our existing relationships and capturing what we believe to be an increasing portion of their annual MI volume. At December 31, 2025, we had issued 2,193 Master Policies, compared to 2,086 and 1,974, as of December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively.

New Insurance Written, Insurance-In-Force and Risk-In-Force

NIW is the aggregate unpaid principal balance of mortgages underpinning new policies written during a given period. Our NIW is affected by the overall size of the mortgage origination market and the volume of high-LTV mortgage originations. Our NIW is also affected by the percentage of such high-LTV originations covered by private versus government MI or other alternative credit enhancement structures and our share of the private MI market. NIW, together with persistency, drives our IIF. IIF is the aggregate unpaid principal balance of the mortgages we insure, as reported to us by servicers at a given date, and represents the sum total of NIW from all prior periods less principal payments on insured mortgages and policy cancellations (including for prepayment, nonpayment of premiums, coverage rescission and claim payments). RIF is related to IIF and represents the aggregate amount of coverage we provide on all outstanding policies at a given date. RIF is calculated as the sum total of the coverage percentage of each individual policy in our portfolio applied to the unpaid principal balance of such insured mortgage. RIF is affected by IIF and the LTV profile of our insured mortgages, with lower LTV loans generally having a lower coverage percentage and higher LTV loans having a higher coverage percentage. Gross RIF represents RIF before consideration of reinsurance. Net RIF is gross RIF net of ceded reinsurance.

Net Premiums Written and Net Premiums Earned

We set our premium rates on individual policies based on the risk characteristics of the underlying mortgage loans and borrowers, and in accordance with our filed rates and applicable rating rules. We primarily price our policies through a proprietary risk-based pricing platform, which we refer to as Rate GPS®. Rate GPS® considers a broad range of individual and layered risk variables, including borrower credit, loan-level, product and lender attributes, as well as market and geographic factors, and provides us with the ability to set and charge premium rates commensurate with the underlying risk of each loan that we insure. We also offer a rate card pricing option to a limited number of lender customers when required for business process reasons. We believe that the utilization of Rate GPS® provides us with a more granular and analytical approach to evaluating and pricing risk, and that this approach enhances our ability to continue building a high-quality mortgage insurance portfolio and delivering attractive risk-adjusted returns.

Premiums are generally fixed for the duration of our coverage of the underlying loans. Net premiums written are equal to gross premiums written minus ceded premiums written under our reinsurance arrangements, less premium refunds and premium write-offs. As a result, net premiums written are generally influenced by:

•NIW;

•premium rates and the mix of premium payment type, which are either single, monthly or annual premiums, as described below;

•cancellation rates of our insurance policies, which are impacted by payments or prepayments on mortgages, refinancings (which are affected by prevailing mortgage interest rates as compared to interest rates on loans underpinning our in force policies), levels of claim payments and home prices; and

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•cession of premiums under third-party reinsurance arrangements.

Premiums are paid either by the borrower (BPMI) or the lender (LPMI) in a single payment at origination (single premium), on a monthly installment basis (monthly premium) or on an annual installment basis (annual premium). Our net premiums written will differ from our net premiums earned due to policy payment type. For single premiums, we receive a single premium payment at origination, which is earned over the estimated life of the policy. Substantially all of our single premium policies in force as of December 31, 2025 were non-refundable under most cancellation scenarios. If non-refundable single premium policies are canceled, we immediately recognize the remaining unearned premium balances as earned premium revenue. Monthly premiums are recognized in the month billed and when the coverage is effective. Annual premiums are earned on a straight-line basis over the year of coverage. Substantially all of our policies provide for either single or monthly premiums.

The percentage of IIF that remains on our books after any twelve-month period is defined as our persistency rate. Because our insurance premiums are earned over the life of a policy, higher persistency rates can have a significant impact on our net premiums earned and profitability. Generally, faster speeds of mortgage prepayment lead to lower persistency. Prepayment speeds and the relative mix of business between single and monthly premium policies also impact our profitability. Our premium rates include certain assumptions regarding repayment or prepayment speeds of the mortgages underlying our policies. Because premiums are paid at origination on single premium policies and our single premium policies are generally non-refundable on cancellation, assuming all other factors remain constant, if single premium loans are prepaid earlier than expected, our profitability on these loans is likely to increase and, if loans are repaid slower than expected, our profitability on these loans is likely to decrease. By contrast, if monthly premium loans are repaid earlier than anticipated, we do not earn any more premium with respect to those loans and, unless we replace the repaid monthly premium loan with a new loan at the same premium rate or higher, our revenue is likely to decline.

Effect of Reinsurance on Our Results

We utilize third-party reinsurance to actively manage our risk, ensure compliance with PMIERs, state regulatory and other applicable capital requirements, and support the growth of our business. We currently have both quota share and excess-of-loss reinsurance agreements in place, which impact our results of operations and regulatory capital and PMIERs asset positions. Under a quota share reinsurance agreement, the reinsurer receives a premium in exchange for covering an agreed-upon portion of incurred losses. Such a quota share arrangement reduces premiums written and earned and also reduces RIF, providing capital relief to the ceding insurance company and reducing incurred claims in accordance with the terms of the reinsurance agreement. In addition, reinsurers typically pay ceding commissions as part of quota share transactions, which offset the ceding company's acquisition and underwriting expenses. Certain quota share agreements include profit commissions that are earned based on loss performance and serve to reduce ceded premiums. Under an excess-of-loss agreement, the ceding insurer is typically responsible for losses up to an agreed-upon threshold and the reinsurer then provides coverage in excess of such threshold up to a maximum agreed-upon limit. We expect to continue to evaluate reinsurance opportunities in the normal course of business.

See Item 8, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 6, Reinsurance” for further discussion of these third-party reinsurance arrangements.

Portfolio Data

The following table presents NIW and primary IIF as of the dates and for the periods indicated. Unless otherwise noted, the tables below do not include the effects of our third-party reinsurance arrangements described above.

NIW increased 6% and 14%, respectively, for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, primarily due to growth in our customer franchise and market presence tied to the increased penetration of existing customer accounts and new customer activations as well as an increase in the size of the total mortgage insurance market.

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Primary IIF increased 5% at December 31, 2025 compared to December 31, 2024, which in turn grew 7% compared to December 31, 2023, primarily due to the NIW generated between such measurement dates, partially offset by the run-off of in-force policies.

Our persistency rate was 83.4%, 84.6% and 86.1% at December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively. Persistency remained historically high due to a continued slowdown in the pace of mortgage refinancing activity tied to the prevailing interest and mortgage rate environment.

The following table presents net premiums written and earned for the periods indicated:

Net premiums written increased 9% and 12%, respectively, and net premiums earned increased 7% and 11%, respectively, during the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, primarily driven by growth in our monthly IIF and direct monthly pay premium receipts, partially offset by the impact of ceded premiums written and earned under our third-party reinsurance transactions.

Portfolio Statistics

Unless otherwise noted, the portfolio statistics tables presented below do not include the effects of our third-party reinsurance arrangements described above. The table below highlights trends in our primary portfolio as of the dates and for the periods indicated.

(1)    Reported as of the end of the period.

(2)    Calculated as end of period RIF divided by end of period IIF.

(3)     Calculated as net premiums earned divided by average primary IIF for the period.

(4)    Defined as the percentage of IIF that remains on our books after a given twelve-month period.

(5)    Defined as the percentage of IIF that is no longer on our books after a given three-month period. Figures shown represent fourth quarter values for the respective years.

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The table below presents a summary of the change in total primary IIF for the dates and periods indicated.

We consider a “book” to be a collective pool of policies insured during a particular period, normally a calendar year. In general, the majority of underwriting profit, calculated as earned premium revenue minus claims and underwriting and operating expenses, generated by a particular book year emerges in the years immediately following origination. This pattern generally occurs because relatively few of the claims that a book will ultimately experience typically occur in the first few years following origination, when premium revenue is highest, while subsequent years are affected by declining premium revenues, as the number of insured loans decreases (primarily due to loan prepayments), and by increasing losses.

The table below presents a summary of our primary IIF and RIF by book year as of the dates indicated.

We utilize certain risk principles that form the basis of how we underwrite and originate NIW. We have established prudential underwriting standards and loan-level eligibility matrices which prescribe the maximum LTV, minimum borrower FICO score, maximum borrower DTI ratio, maximum loan size, property type, loan type, loan term and occupancy status of loans that we will insure and memorialized these standards and eligibility matrices in our Underwriting Guideline Manual that is publicly available on our website. Our underwriting standards and eligibility criteria are designed to limit the layering of risk in a single insurance policy. “Layered risk” refers to the accumulation of borrower, loan and property risk. For example, we have higher credit score and lower maximum allowed LTV requirements for investor-owned properties, compared to owner-occupied properties. We monitor the concentrations of various risk attributes in our insurance portfolio, which may change over time, in part, as a result of regional conditions or public policy shifts.

The tables below present our NIW by FICO, LTV and purchase/refinance mix for the periods indicated. We calculate the LTV of a loan as the percentage of the original loan amount to the original purchase value of the property securing the loan.

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The tables below present our total primary IIF and RIF by FICO and LTV, and total primary RIF by loan type as of the dates indicated.

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The table below presents selected primary portfolio statistics, by book year, as of December 31, 2025.

(1)    Calculated as total claims incurred (paid and reserved) divided by cumulative premiums earned, net of reinsurance.

(2)    Calculated as the sum of the number of claims paid ever to date and number of loans in default divided by policies ever in force.

(3)    Calculated as the number of loans in default divided by number of policies in force.

Geographic Dispersion

The following table shows the distribution by state of our primary RIF as of the dates indicated. The distribution of our primary RIF as of December 31, 2025 is not necessarily representative of the geographic distribution we expect in the future.

Insurance Claims and Claim Expenses

Insurance claims and claim expenses incurred represent estimated future payments on newly defaulted insured loans and any change in our claim estimates for previously existing defaults. Claims incurred are generally affected by a variety of factors, including:

•future macroeconomic factors, including national and regional unemployment rates, which affect the likelihood that borrowers may default on their loans and probability of claims, and interest rates, which tend to drive increased persistency as they rise, thereby extending the average life of our insured portfolio and increasing expected future claims and decrease persistency as they fall, thereby shortening the average life of our insured portfolio and moderating future expected claims;

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•changes in housing values, as such changes affect loss mitigation opportunities (available to us and a borrower) on loans in default, as well as borrowers' behaviors and willingness to default if the values of their homes are below or perceived to be below the balance of their mortgage;

•borrowers' FICO scores, with lower FICO scores tending to have a higher probability of claims;

•borrowers' DTI ratios, with higher DTI ratios tending to have a higher probability of claims;

•LTV ratios, with higher average LTV ratios tending to increase the probability of claims;

•the size of loans insured, with higher loan amounts tending to result in higher incurred claim amounts than smaller loan amounts;

•the percentage of coverage on insured loans, with higher percentages of insurance coverage tending to result in higher incurred claim amounts than lower percentages of insurance coverage;

•other borrower, property-type and loan level risk characteristics, such as cash-out refinancings, second homes or investment properties; and

•the level and amount of reinsurance coverage maintained with third parties.

Reserves for claims and claim expenses are established for mortgage loans that are in default. A loan is considered to be in default as of the payment date at which a borrower has missed the preceding two or more consecutive monthly payments. We establish reserves for loans that have been reported to us in default by servicers, referred to as case reserves, and additional loans that we estimate (based on actuarial review and other factors) to be in default that have not yet been reported to us by servicers, referred to as IBNR. We also establish reserves for claim expenses, which represent the estimated cost of the claim administration process, including legal and other fees and other general expenses of administering the claim settlement process. Reserves are not established for future claims on insured loans which are not currently reported or which we estimate are not currently in default.

Reserves are established by estimating the number of loans in default that will result in a claim payment, which is referred to as claim frequency, and the amount of the claim payment expected to be paid on each such loan in default, which is referred to as claim severity. Claim frequency and severity estimates are established based on historical observed experience regarding certain loan factors, such as age of the default, cure rates, size of the loan and estimated change in property value. Reserves are released the month in which a loan in default is brought current by the borrower, which is referred to as a cure. Adjustments to reserve estimates are reflected in the period in which the adjustment is made. Reserves are also ceded to reinsurers under the QSR Transactions, XOL Transactions and ILN Transactions as applicable under each treaty. We have not yet ceded reserves under any of the XOL Transactions or ILN Transactions as incurred claims and claim expenses on each respective reference pool remain within our retained coverage layer for each transaction.

Our reserve setting process considers the beneficial impact of forbearance, foreclosure moratorium and other assistance programs that may be made available to certain defaulted borrowers. The effectiveness of forbearance and other such assistance programs can be further enhanced by the availability of various repayment and loan modification options which typically allow borrowers to amortize or, in certain instances, outright defer payments otherwise missed during a period of dislocation over an extended length of time. We generally observe that forbearance, repayment and modification, and other assistance programs are an effective tool to bridge dislocated borrowers from a time of acute stress to a future date when they can resume timely payment of their mortgage obligations, and note higher cure rates on defaults benefitting from broad-based assistance programs than would otherwise be expected on similarly situated loans that did not benefit from such programs.

The actual claims we incur as our portfolio matures are difficult to predict and depend on the specific characteristics of our current in-force book (including the credit score and DTI ratio of the borrower, the LTV ratio of the mortgage and geographic concentrations, among others), as well as the risk profile of new business we write in the future. In addition, claims experience will be affected by macroeconomic factors such as housing prices, interest rates, unemployment rates and other events, such as natural disasters or global pandemics, and any federal, state or local governmental response thereto.

Macroeconomic factors, including persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, flagging consumer confidence and increasing jobless claims could have a pronounced impact on the housing market, the mortgage insurance industry and our business in future periods. A marked decline in housing demand, a significant and protracted decrease in house prices, or a sustained increase in unemployment could contribute to an increase in our future default and claims experience.

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The following table provides a reconciliation of the beginning and ending gross reserve balances for insurance claims and claim expenses:

(1)    Related to ceded losses recoverable under the QSR Transactions. See Item 8, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data - Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 6, Reinsurance” for additional information.

(2)    Related to insured loans with their most recent defaults occurring in the current year. For example, if a loan defaulted in a prior year and subsequently cured and later re-defaulted in the current year, the default would be included in the current year. Amounts are presented net of reinsurance and included $102.0 million attributed to net case reserves and $10.8 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2025, $83.5 million attributed to net case reserves and $8.1 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2024, and $70.6 million attributed to net case reserves and $6.3 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2023.

(3)    Related to insured loans with defaults occurring in prior years, which have been continuously in default before the start of the current year. Amounts are presented net of reinsurance and included $48.4 million attributed to net case reserves and $8.1 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2025, $54.1 million attributed to net case reserves and $6.3 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2024, and $50.9 million attributed to net case reserves and $4.5 million attributed to net IBNR reserves for the year ended December 31, 2023.

(4)    Excludes aggregate fees of $0.8 million and $0.7 million for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2023, respectively, incurred in connection with the termination or amendment of certain QSR Transactions.

(5)    Represents the settlement of reinsurance recoverables in conjunction with the termination and amendment of certain QSR transactions.

The “claims incurred” section of the table above shows claims and claim expenses incurred on defaults occurring in current and prior years, including IBNR reserves and is presented net of reinsurance. We may increase or decrease our claim estimates and reserves as we learn additional information about individual defaulted loans and continue to observe and analyze loss development trends in our portfolio. Gross reserves of $55.7 million related to prior year defaults remained as of December 31, 2025.

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The following table provides a reconciliation of the beginning and ending count of loans in default:

The sequential increase in ending default inventory at each successive year end was primarily due to the growth and seasoning of our insured portfolio, partially offset by cure activity within our default population during the intervening periods.

The following table provides details of our claims paid, before giving effect to claims ceded under the QSR Transactions for the periods indicated:

(1)    Count includes 71, 88 and 70 claims settled without payment during the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.

(2)    Severity represents the total amount of claims paid including claim expenses divided by the related RIF on the loan at the time the claim is perfected, and is calculated including claims settled without payment.

We paid 445, 276 and 199 claims during the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively. The number of claims paid in each year was modest relative to the size of our insured portfolio and we generally observe that the borrowers of the loans we insure are well-situated with strong credit profiles, stable 30-year fixed rate mortgages, manageable debt service obligations and significant appreciated equity in their homes. An increase in the value of the homes collateralizing the mortgages we insure provides defaulted borrowers with alternative paths and incentives to cure their loan prior to the development of a claim.

Our claims severity for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023 was 76%, 61% and 55%, respectively. The increase in claims severity for the year ended December 31, 2025, was primarily due to an increase in the proportion of claims related to loans originated in more recent years. These loans generally have less accumulated equity than loans from earlier vintages, which typically results in higher claims payments and an increase in claims severity.

Our claims severity was still below long-term industry norms and benefited from the same house price appreciation that supported our claims paid experience. An increase in the value of the homes collateralizing the mortgages we insure provides additional equity support to our risk exposure and raises the prospect of a third-party sale of a foreclosed property, which can mitigate the severity of our settled claims.

The number of claims paid and our severity experience in future periods may be impacted if developing economic cycles impose financial strain on borrowers, and each could increase if house price declines serve to limit the alternative paths and incentives to cure delinquencies that are available to defaulted borrowers or erode the equity value of the homes collateralizing the mortgages we insure.

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The following table provides detail on our average reserve per default, before giving effect to reserves ceded under the QSR Transactions, as of the dates indicated:

(1)    Defined as the gross reserve per insured loan in default.

(2)    Amount includes claims adjustment expenses.

Average reserve per default increased from December 31, 2024 to December 31, 2025, primarily due to changes in the composition of our default inventory as measured by the size, vintage and current estimated LTV of defaulted loans between measurement dates. Average reserves per default were further impacted by changes in observed and forecasted housing market conditions and macroeconomic factors between the measurement dates.

Average reserve per default decreased from December 31, 2023 to December 31, 2024, primarily due to an increase in the proportion of defaults that trace to storm-related activity year-on-year. We generally observe that storm-related defaults cure at higher rates than other similarly situated loans in default (in non-disaster zones) and scale our reserves accordingly. Average reserves per default were further impacted by changes in observed and forecasted housing market conditions and macroeconomic factors between the measurement dates.

Seasonality

Historically, our business has been subject to modest seasonality in both NIW production and default experience. Consistent with the seasonality of home sales, purchase origination volumes typically increase in late spring and peak during the summer months, leading to a rise in NIW volume during the second and third quarters of a given year. Refinancing volume, however, does not follow a set seasonal trend and is instead primarily influenced by mortgage rates. Fluctuations in refinancing volume (driven by changes in prevailing mortgage rates) may serve to mute or magnify the seasonal effect of home purchase patterns on mortgage insurance NIW. Default experience is also subject to seasonality due to seasonal patterns in household cash flows, with certain borrowers benefiting from inflows related to bonus payments and tax refunds in the first half of the year and certain borrowers more strained in the second half of the year given the lack of these inflows and increased discretionary spending through the year-end holiday season. Housing market conditions and macroeconomic factors may serve to mute or magnify these seasonal default trends.

GSE Oversight

As an approved insurer, NMIC is subject to ongoing compliance with the PMIERs established by each of the GSEs (italicized terms have the same meaning that such terms have in the PMIERs, as described below). The PMIERs establish operational, business, remedial and financial requirements applicable to approved insurers. The PMIERs financial requirements prescribe a risk-based methodology whereby the amount of assets required to be held against each insured loan is determined based on certain loan-level risk characteristics, such as FICO, vintage (year of origination), performing vs. non-performing (i.e., current vs. delinquent), LTV ratio and other risk features. In general, higher-quality loans carry lower asset charges.

Under the PMIERs, approved insurers must maintain available assets that equal or exceed minimum required assets, which is an amount equal to the greater of (i) $400 million or (ii) a total risk-based required asset amount.

Available assets reflect the financial resources of a mortgage insurer available to pay claims, and includes the most readily liquid assets held, such as cash, investments and other items as stipulated in the PMIERs. The credit provided for such assets is subject to adjustment based on several factors, including asset class, credit rating and portfolio concentration.

The risk-based required asset amount is a function of the risk profile of an approved insurer's RIF, assessed on a loan-by-loan basis and considered against certain risk-based factors derived from tables set out in the PMIERs, which is then adjusted on an aggregate basis for reinsurance transactions approved by the GSEs, such as with respect to our QSR Transactions, XOL Transactions and ILN Transactions. The aggregate gross risk-based required asset amount for performing, primary insurance is subject to a floor of 5.6% of performing primary adjusted RIF.

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By April 15th of each year, NMIC must certify it met all PMIERs requirements as of December 31st of the prior year. We certified to the GSEs by April 15, 2025 that NMIC was in full compliance with the PMIERs as of December 31, 2024. NMIC also has an ongoing obligation to immediately notify the GSEs in writing upon discovery of a failure to meet one or more of the PMIERs requirements. We continuously monitor NMIC's compliance with the PMIERs.

The following table provides a comparison of the PMIERs available assets and net risk-based required asset amount as reported by NMIC as of the dates indicated:

Available assets were $3.5 billion at December 31, 2025, compared to $3.1 billion at December 31, 2024 and $2.7 billion at December 31, 2023. The sequential increase in available assets between the dates presented was primarily driven by NMIC's positive cash flow from operations during the intervening periods, partially offset by the payment of ordinary course dividends from NMIC to NMIH during each year.

Net risk-based required assets were $2.1 billion at December 31, 2025, compared to $1.8 billion at December 31, 2024 and $1.5 billion at December 31, 2023. The increase in the net risk-based required asset amount between the dates presented was primarily due to the growth in our gross RIF and aggregate gross risk-based required asset amount, and was further impacted by the growth in our default inventory and defaulted RIF.

Competition

The MI industry is highly competitive and currently consists of six private mortgage insurers, including NMIC, as well as government MIs such as the FHA, USDA or VA. A range of factors influence a lender's and borrower's decision to choose private over government MI, including among others, premium rates and other charges, loan eligibility requirements, the cancelability of private coverage, loan size limits and the relative ease of use of private MI products compared to government MI alternatives. Private MI companies compete based on service, customer relationships, underwriting and other factors, including price, credit risk tolerance and IT capabilities. We expect the private MI market to remain competitive, with pressure for industry participants to maintain or grow their market share.