DYNEX CAPITAL INC (DX)
SIC breadcrumb: Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate > Holding And Other Investment Offices > SIC 6798 Real Estate Investment Trusts
SEC company page: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=826675. Latest filing source: 0000826675-26-000017.
Informational only - descriptive public-record data, not investment advice.
Business
Read DX's verbatim Item 1 Business section from its latest 10-K: Business.
Risk Factors
Read DX's verbatim Item 1A Risk Factors from its latest 10-K: Risk Factors.
Selected Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | Unit | FY | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | 319,066,000 | USD | 2025 | 2026-02-25 |
| Assets | 17,342,178,000 | USD | 2025 | 2026-02-25 |
Financials
Annual standardized facts from SEC companyfacts as of latest extracted filing date 2026-02-25. Source: https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000826675.json. Derived margins, ratios, and free cash flow are computed from the extracted annual SEC facts.
| Metric | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | 43,099,000 | 33,893,000 | 7,023,000 | -152,668,000 | 177,530,000 | 102,261,000 | 143,161,000 | -6,130,000 | 113,898,000 | 319,066,000 | |||
| Diluted EPS | 1.03 | 1.35 | 1.10 | -7.01 | 6.93 | 2.78 | 3.17 | -0.25 | 1.49 | 2.47 | |||
| Operating cash flow | 210,514,000 | 204,448,000 | 180,560,000 | 175,346,000 | 173,952,000 | 146,970,000 | 126,352,000 | 62,200,000 | 14,392,000 | 120,821,000 | |||
| Dividends paid | 51,900,000 | 47,532,000 | 52,790,000 | 68,042,000 | 52,437,000 | 58,895,000 | 72,366,000 | 93,041,000 | 117,844,000 | 246,599,000 | |||
| Assets | 3,397,731,000 | 3,305,778,000 | 3,886,089,000 | 5,370,604,000 | 3,094,810,000 | 3,639,738,000 | 3,605,234,000 | 6,369,750,000 | 8,184,579,000 | 17,342,178,000 | |||
| Liabilities | 2,930,547,000 | 2,748,720,000 | 3,358,936,000 | 4,787,616,000 | 2,461,357,000 | 2,868,459,000 | 2,703,906,000 | 5,499,015,000 | 6,999,643,000 | 14,880,034,000 | |||
| Stockholders' equity | 467,184,000 | 557,058,000 | 527,153,000 | 582,988,000 | 633,453,000 | 771,279,000 | 901,328,000 | 870,735,000 | 1,184,936,000 | 2,462,144,000 | |||
| Cash and cash equivalents | 74,120,000 | 40,867,000 | 34,598,000 | 62,582,000 | 295,602,000 | 366,023,000 | 332,035,000 | 119,639,000 | 377,099,000 | 531,043,000 |
Ratios
| Metric | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 9.23% | 6.08% | 1.33% | -26.19% | 28.03% | 13.26% | 15.88% | -0.70% | 9.61% | 12.96% | |||
| Return on assets | 1.27% | 1.03% | 0.18% | -2.84% | 5.74% | 2.81% | 3.97% | -0.10% | 1.39% | 1.84% | |||
| Liabilities / equity | 6.27 | 4.93 | 6.37 | 8.21 | 3.89 | 3.72 | 3.00 | 6.32 | 5.91 | 6.04 |
Industry Peer Context
ROE peer context
ROA peer context
Financial Charts
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2025 ended 2025-12-31; accession 0000826675-26-000017; filed 2026-02-25. Concept: NetIncomeLoss. Source concepts: us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2025 ended 2025-12-31; accession 0000826675-26-000017; filed 2026-02-25. Concept: EarningsPerShareDiluted. Source concepts: us-gaap:EarningsPerShareDiluted.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2025 ended 2025-12-31; accession 0000826675-26-000017; filed 2026-02-25. Concept: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities. Source concepts: us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2025 ended 2025-12-31; accession 0000826675-26-000017; filed 2026-02-25. Concept: PaymentsOfDividends. Source concepts: us-gaap:PaymentsOfDividends.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2025 ended 2025-12-31; accession 0000826675-26-000017; filed 2026-02-25. Concept: Assets. Source concepts: us-gaap:Assets.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2025 ended 2025-12-31; accession 0000826675-26-000017; filed 2026-02-25. Concept: Liabilities. Source concepts: us-gaap:Liabilities.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2025 ended 2025-12-31; accession 0000826675-26-000017; filed 2026-02-25. Concept: StockholdersEquityIncludingPortionAttributableToNoncontrollingInterest. Source concepts: us-gaap:StockholdersEquityIncludingPortionAttributableToNoncontrollingInterest.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2025 ended 2025-12-31; accession 0000826675-26-000017; filed 2026-02-25. Concept: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue. Source concepts: us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue.
Quarterly
Quarterly standardized facts from SEC companyfacts as of latest extracted filing date 2026-07-27. Source: https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000826675.json.
| Quarter | End Date | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-Q3 | 2022-09-30 | -1.07 | reported discrete quarter | ||
| 2023-Q1 | 2023-03-31 | -0.81 | reported discrete quarter | ||
| 2023-Q2 | 2023-06-30 | 0.96 | reported discrete quarter | ||
| 2023-Q3 | 2023-09-30 | -43,051,000 | -0.82 | reported discrete quarter | |
| 2023-Q4 | 2023-12-31 | 24,305,000 | derived Q4 = FY annual - nine-month YTD | ||
| 2024-Q1 | 2024-03-31 | 40,118,000 | 0.64 | reported discrete quarter | |
| 2024-Q2 | 2024-06-30 | 1,287,000 | -8,304,000 | -0.15 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2024-Q3 | 2024-09-30 | 894,000 | 30,997,000 | 0.38 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2024-Q4 | 2024-12-31 | 6,887,000 | 51,086,000 | derived Q4 = FY annual - nine-month YTD | |
| 2025-Q1 | 2025-03-31 | 17,133,000 | -3,076,000 | -0.06 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2025-Q2 | 2025-06-30 | 23,128,000 | -13,606,000 | -0.14 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2025-Q3 | 2025-09-30 | 30,611,000 | 150,388,000 | 1.08 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2025-Q4 | 2025-12-31 | 43,484,000 | 185,359,000 | derived Q4 = FY annual - nine-month YTD | |
| 2026-Q1 | 2026-03-31 | 79,254,000 | -80,362,000 | -0.41 | reported discrete quarter |
| 2026-Q2 | 2026-06-30 | 93,783,000 | 180,793,000 | 0.80 | reported discrete quarter |
Quarterly Charts
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2026 ended 2026-06-30; accession 0000826675-26-000078; filed 2026-07-27. Concept: InterestIncomeExpenseNet. Source concepts: us-gaap:InterestIncomeExpenseNet.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2026 ended 2026-06-30; accession 0000826675-26-000078; filed 2026-07-27. Concept: NetIncomeLoss. Source concepts: us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss.
Figure provenance: SEC companyfacts. Latest point: FY 2026 ended 2026-06-30; accession 0000826675-26-000078; filed 2026-07-27. Concept: EarningsPerShareDiluted. Source concepts: us-gaap:EarningsPerShareDiluted.
Macro Cross-References
- CPIAUCSL - Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average
- UNRATE - Unemployment Rate
- FEDFUNDS - Federal Funds Effective Rate
- CES0500000003 - Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private
- DFEDTARU - Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit
- DFEDTARL - Federal Funds Target Range - Lower Limit
- DGS3MO - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Month Constant Maturity
- DGS2 - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity
- DGS10 - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity
- DGS30 - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity
- T10Y2Y - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
- CPILFESL - Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy
- CPIUFDSL - Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food
- CPIENGSL - Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Energy
- CUSR0000SAH1 - Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter
- PCEPI - Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index
- PCEPILFE - Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy: Chain-type Price Index
- PPIACO - Producer Price Index by Commodity: All Commodities
- T10YIE - 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
- U6RATE - Total Unemployed, Plus All Marginally Attached Workers Plus Total Employed Part Time for Economic Reasons
- PAYEMS - All Employees, Total Nonfarm
- CIVPART - Labor Force Participation Rate
- EMRATIO - Employment-Population Ratio
- UNEMPLOY - Unemployed
- CE16OV - Employment Level
- ICSA - Initial Claims
- JTSJOL - Job Openings: Total Nonfarm
- JTSQUR - Quits: Total Nonfarm
- GDPC1 - Real Gross Domestic Product
- A191RL1Q225SBEA - Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change from Preceding Period
- INDPRO - Industrial Production: Total Index
- TCU - Capacity Utilization: Total Index
- HOUST - New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units
- PERMIT - New Privately-Owned Housing Units Authorized in Permit-Issuing Places: Total Units
- RSAFS - Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade
- PCE - Personal Consumption Expenditures
- DSPIC96 - Real Disposable Personal Income
- PSAVERT - Personal Saving Rate
- M2SL - M2
- BOPGSTB - U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services: Balance
- MSPUS - Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States
- HSN1F - New One Family Houses Sold: United States
- RHORUSQ156N - Homeownership Rate in the United States
- TTLCONS - Total Construction Spending: Total Construction in the United States
- RRVRUSQ156N - Rental Vacancy Rate in the United States
- TOTALSL - Total Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized
- REVOLSL - Revolving Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized
- DRCCLACBS - Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Banks
- GDP - Gross Domestic Product
- GPDI - Gross Private Domestic Investment
- GCE - Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
- PCEC - Personal Consumption Expenditures
- NETEXP - Net Exports of Goods and Services
- GFDEBTN - Federal Debt: Total Public Debt
- GFDEGDQ188S - Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product
- FYFSD - Federal Surplus or Deficit
- FGRECPT - Federal Government Current Receipts
- FGEXPND - Federal Government: Current Expenditures
- MANEMP - All Employees, Manufacturing
- USCONS - All Employees, Construction
- USTRADE - All Employees, Retail Trade
- USFIRE - All Employees, Financial Activities
- USGOVT - All Employees, Government
- AWHAETP - Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private
- DGORDER - Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods
- NEWORDER - Manufacturers' New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft
- BUSINV - Total Business Inventories
- EXPGS - Exports of Goods and Services
- IMPGS - Imports of Goods and Services
- IR - Import Price Index (End Use): All Commodities
- PPIFIS - Producer Price Index by Commodity: Final Demand
Latest quarter (10-Q)
Latest 10-Q source: 0000826675-26-000078.
ITEM 2. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW
During the second quarter of 2026, financial markets were comparatively calmer as realized volatility moderated from the elevated levels seen earlier in the year, even as investors continued to weigh the outlook for inflation, monetary policy, and global growth against ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The U.S. economy continued to expand at a moderate pace, with a steady labor market and only a modest increase in inflation expectations. Market participants priced for the possibility of modest Federal Reserve policy rate hikes, but forward rates curves suggested any such hikes would slowly be removed over time as new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh eventually settled into his new approach for managing the Federal Reserve. Funding markets remained orderly and were well supported by ample system liquidity, and liquidity across the mortgage and repurchase agreement markets continued to function effectively. After spread widening late in the first quarter, spreads across Agency MBS stabilized and moved modestly tighter over the course of the second quarter, supported by muted new mortgage origination supply, the sector's strong liquidity profile, and renewed demand from the GSEs, which increased their purchases of Agency MBS during the bout of widening.
Against this backdrop, Agency MBS continues to offer attractive long‑term return potential relative to other high‑quality fixed‑income assets, particularly given the supply dynamics, the sector's strong liquidity profile, and the potential for incremental GSE demand to provide support against episodes of spread widening. At the same time, fund flows into bond funds remain a steady source of demand. The long-term, demographic-led need for income will likely remain a central theme in developed financial markets. We view current spread levels as attractive and remain attentive to the evolving supply‑and‑demand balance, including the pace and composition of GSE purchases, the trajectory of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, especially its holdings of Agency MBS and the level of banking‑system reserves. We continue to monitor monetary policy, inflation trends, housing market activity, supply‑and‑demand dynamics, and geopolitical developments, as well as operational and cybersecurity risks, as we assess their potential impact on interest rates, spreads, prepayment behavior, and financing conditions. We remain focused on disciplined portfolio construction, security selection, liquidity management, and balance‑sheet resilience as market conditions continue to evolve.
The charts below show the range of U.S. Treasury and SOFR-based swap rates for the six months ended June 30, 2026 and information regarding market spreads as of and for the periods indicated:
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| Market Spreads as of: | Change in Spreads YTD | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment Type: (1) | June 30, 2026 | March 31, 2026 | December 31, 2025 | |||||||||
| Agency RMBS: | ||||||||||||
| 2.0% coupon | 72 | 73 | 70 | 2 | ||||||||
| 2.5% coupon | 72 | 76 | 73 | (1) | ||||||||
| 4.0% coupon | 52 | 52 | 50 | 2 | ||||||||
| 4.5% coupon | 46 | 53 | 45 | 1 | ||||||||
| 5.0% coupon | 48 | 56 | 46 | 2 | ||||||||
| 5.5% coupon | 51 | 63 | 51 | — | ||||||||
| 6.0% coupon | 47 | 64 | 54 | (7) | ||||||||
| Agency CMBS(2) | 75 | 84 | 82 | (7) |
(1)Option adjusted spreads (“OAS”) are based on Company estimates using third-party models and market data. OAS shown for prior periods may differ from previous disclosures because the Company regularly updates the third-party model used.
(2)Data is sourced from J.P. Morgan and represents the spread to swap rate on newly issued Agency securities collateralized by multifamily properties.
Summary of Second Quarter 2026 Financial Performance
Our total economic return for the second quarter of 2026 of $0.81 per common share was comprised of an increase in book value of $0.30 per common share and dividends declared of $0.51 per common share. The increase in book value per common share was primarily comprised of a net gain of $102 million on our investment portfolio, net of hedges. The fair value of our Agency MBS benefited from spread tightening late in the second quarter. Although higher interest rates reduced asset valuations during the second quarter, our hedging portfolio effectively mitigated much of this impact, supporting the overall increase in book value. We raised capital of $391 million, net of commissions, using the proceeds to opportunistically add Agency MBS of $2.8 billion. Leverage including TBAs at implied cost decreased to 8.1 times equity, primarily due to the favorable performance of our portfolio.
Interest income increased to $94 million for the second quarter of 2026, driven by our continued deployment of capital into Agency MBS purchases, primarily in 4-5% coupons. Operating expenses for the second quarter of 2026 decreased $5 million, due to the absence of one-time compensation and personnel-related costs recognized during the first quarter of 2026.
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The following table summarizes the changes in the Company's financial position during the three months ended June 30, 2026:
| ($s in thousands except per share data) | Net Change in Fair Value | Components of Comprehensive Income | Common Book Value Rollforward | Per Common Share | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance as of March 31, 2026 (1) | $ | 2,609,770 | $ | 12.60 | ||||||
| Net interest income | $ | 93,783 | ||||||||
| Periodic interest from interest rate swaps | 542 | |||||||||
| G & A and other operating expenses | (16,213) | |||||||||
| Preferred stock dividends | (2,650) | |||||||||
| Changes in fair value: | ||||||||||
| MBS and other | $ | (26,487) | ||||||||
| TBAs | (19,229) | |||||||||
| U.S. Treasury futures | 16,568 | |||||||||
| Interest rate swaps | 135,239 | |||||||||
| Interest rate swaptions | (4,275) | |||||||||
| Total net change in fair value | 101,816 | |||||||||
| Comprehensive income to common shareholders | 177,278 | |||||||||
| Capital transactions: | ||||||||||
| Net proceeds from stock issuance (2) | 392,295 | |||||||||
| Common dividends declared | (115,776) | |||||||||
| Balance as of June 30, 2026 (1) | $ | 3,063,567 | $ | 12.90 |
(1)Amounts represent total shareholders' equity less the aggregate liquidation preference of the Company's preferred stock of $111.5 million, in thousands and on a per common share basis.
(2)Net proceeds from common stock issuance include approximately $391 million from ATM issuances and approximately $1.0 million from amortization of share-based compensation, net of grants, during the three months ended June 30, 2026.
26
FINANCIAL CONDITION
Investment Portfolio
Our investment portfolio, including TBAs, as of June 30, 2026, has increased $8.2 billion, or 42%, since December 31, 2025. We added over $10 billion, net of sales, of primarily 30-year fixed rate Agency RMBS during the six months ended June 30, 2026. We reduced our TBA securities by a net notional of $0.6 billion. The following charts compare the composition of our investment portfolio as of the dates indicated:
The following charts compare the percentage distribution by coupon of our 30-year fixed rate Agency RMBS investments, including TBAs, as of the dates indicated:
The following tables compare our 30-year fixed-rate Agency RMBS investments, including TBA dollar roll positions, by coupon as of the dates indicated:
| June 30, 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agency RMBS by Coupon | Par/Notional | Amortized Cost/Implied Cost Basis (3)(5) | Fair Value (4)(5) | Weighted Average | ||||||||||||||||||
| Loan Age(in months)(6) | 3 MonthCPR (6)(7) | Estimated Duration (8) | Market Yield (9) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.0% | $ | 1,655,060 | $ | 1,467,013 | $ | 1,341,563 | 70 | 5.1 | % | 7.37 | 4.90 | % | ||||||||||
| 2.5% | 748,519 | 728,917 | 637,192 | 70 | 6.4 | % | 6.92 | 4.88 | % | |||||||||||||
| 4.0% | 1,122,540 | 1,065,039 | 1,057,493 | 51 | 5.6 | % | 5.97 | 4.93 | % | |||||||||||||
| 4.5% (1) | 2,219,150 | 2,147,675 | 2,146,620 | 29 | 6.5 | % | 5.53 | 5.02 | % | |||||||||||||
| 5.0% | 8,017,356 | 7,969,870 | 7,942,615 | 15 | 6.9 | % | 4.82 | 5.14 | % | |||||||||||||
| 5.5% | 8,921,868 | 9,028,071 | 9,027,526 | 15 | 10.5 | % | 3.55 | 5.28 | % | |||||||||||||
| 6.0% | 1,418,680 | 1,459,407 | 1,460,687 | 14 | 17.3 | % | 2.35 | 5.31 | % | |||||||||||||
| TBA 4.0% | 12,000 | 11,259 | 11,231 | n/a | n/a | 6.71 | 4.89 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 4.5%(2) | 1,075,000 | 1,039,010 | 1,044,581 | n/a | n/a | 5.11 | 4.91 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 5.0% | 873,000 | 856,769 | 858,950 | n/a | n/a | 4.92 | 5.23 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 5.5% | 600,000 | 602,276 | 602,531 | n/a | n/a | 3.41 | 5.41 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 26,663,173 | $ | 26,375,306 | $ | 26,130,989 | 23 | 8.7 | % | 4.57 | 5.15 | % |
| December 31, 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agency RMBS by Coupon | Par/Notional | Amortized Cost/Implied Cost Basis (3)(5) | Fair Value (4)(5) | Weighted Average | ||||||||||||||||||
| Loan Age(in months)(6) | 3 MonthCPR (6)(7) | Estimated Duration (8) | Market Yield (9) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.0% | $ | 603,965 | $ | 613,475 | $ | 497,097 | 63 | 5.2 | % | 7.42 | 4.68 | % | ||||||||||
| 2.5% | 516,325 | 535,039 | 444,904 | 64 | 5.1 | % | 7.02 | 4.67 | % | |||||||||||||
| 4.0% | 293,073 | 293,432 | 281,889 | 57 | 6.5 | % | 5.89 | 4.63 | % | |||||||||||||
| 4.5% (1) | 1,911,130 | 1,853,757 | 1,881,304 | 33 | 5.8 | % | 5.46 | 4.74 | % | |||||||||||||
| 5.0% | 3,974,655 | 3,913,622 | 3,997,537 | 21 | 5.9 | % | 4.62 | 4.91 | % | |||||||||||||
| 5.5% | 6,325,638 | 6,361,758 | 6,465,769 | 13 | 8.1 | % | 3.39 | 5.10 | % | |||||||||||||
| 6.0% | 1,381,567 | 1,419,727 | 1,432,860 | 9 | 8.2 | % | 2.28 | 5.14 | % | |||||||||||||
| TBA 4.0% | 1,162,000 | 1,101,441 | 1,102,764 | n/a | n/a | 6.29 | 4.76 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 4.5%(2) | 1,447,000 | 1,425,945 | 1,430,136 | n/a | n/a | 4.58 | 4.64 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 5.0% | 176,000 | 175,287 | 175,670 | n/a | n/a | 4.51 | 5.03 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 5.5% | 183,000 | 185,175 | 185,631 | n/a | n/a | 3.28 | 5.23 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 6.0% | 221,000 | 226,218 | 226,922 | n/a | n/a | 1.99 | 5.24 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 18,195,353 | $ | 18,104,876 | $ | 18,122,483 | 21 | 7.0 | % | 4.29 | 4.94 | % |
(1)Includes a par value of $9 million of 4.5% 15-year Agency RMBS as of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025.
(2)Includes a notional amount of $440 million of 4.5% 15-year TBA securities as of June 30, 2026 and $690 million as of December 31, 2025.
(3)Implied cost basis of TBAs represents the forward price to be paid for the underlying Agency MBS.
(4)Fair value of TBAs is the implied market value of the underlying Agency security as of the end of the period.
(5)TBAs are included on the consolidated balance sheet within “derivative assets/liabilities” at their net carrying value which is the difference between their implied market value and implied cost basis. Please refer to Note 5 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.
(6)TBAs are excluded from this calculation as they do not have a defined weighted-average loan balance or age until mortgages have been assigned to the pool.
(7)Constant prepayment rate (“CPR”
[Excerpt truncated for page length; source filing is linked above.]
Latest 10-K MD&A
ITEM 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with our financial statements and the related notes included in Part II, Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data” in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of various factors including, but not limited to, those disclosed in Part I, Item 1A, “Risk Factors” elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K and in other documents we file with the SEC or otherwise publicly disclose. Please refer to “Forward-Looking Statements” contained within Part I, Item 1, “Business” of the Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information. This discussion also contains non-GAAP financial measures, which are discussed in the section “Non-GAAP Financial Measures.”
For a complete description of our business, including our operating policies, investment philosophy and strategy, financing, risk management and hedging strategies, and other important information, please refer to Part I, Item 1, “Business” of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW
During 2025, shifting U.S. policy and persistent global uncertainty created a favorable backdrop for high-quality, liquid assets like Agency MBS. The second Trump Administration implemented significant tariff increases that generated significantly higher customs revenues and passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act extending tax provisions from 2017 with additional benefits. Despite these policy shifts and stricter immigration enforcement that contributed to unemployment rising to over 4.0% by year-end, the U.S. economy demonstrated resilience with 2.5% GDP growth through the first three quarters. The combination of moderating inflation, a softening labor market, and policy-driven uncertainty enabled the Federal Reserve to reduce the Federal Funds Rate by 75 basis points in the second half of 2025, bringing the target range to 3.50-3.75%. Additionally, the Fed ended its balance sheet runoff in December, announcing Treasury bill purchases to maintain stable reserve levels and reduce funding market volatility.
With this backdrop, Agency MBS emerged as one of the better performing sectors within the fixed-income
27
market due to favorable technical and fundamental drivers. The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened as short-term rates fell more rapidly than long-term yields while Agency MBS spreads substantially tightened relative to Treasuries. Interest rate volatility declined, which aided a reduction in hedging costs. Supply/demand dynamics were favorable overall as new mortgage originations remained muted while demand increased.
The charts below show the range of U.S. Treasury and Secured Overnight Funding Rate (“SOFR”)-based swap rates for the year ended December 31, 2025 and information regarding market spreads as of and for the periods indicated:
28
| Market Spreads as of: | Change in Spreads YTD | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment Type: (1) | December 31, 2025 | September 30, 2025 | June 30, 2025 | March 31, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | |||||||
| Agency RMBS: | ||||||||||||
| 2.0% coupon | 70 | 85 | 96 | 85 | 89 | (19) | ||||||
| 2.5% coupon | 73 | 90 | 99 | 90 | 93 | (20) | ||||||
| 4.0% coupon | 50 | 65 | 78 | 65 | 69 | (19) | ||||||
| 4.5% coupon | 45 | 64 | 76 | 65 | 68 | (23) | ||||||
| 5.0% coupon | 46 | 66 | 77 | 66 | 69 | (23) | ||||||
| 5.5% coupon | 51 | 72 | 82 | 69 | 72 | (21) | ||||||
| 6.0% coupon | 54 | 74 | 86 | 66 | 74 | (20) | ||||||
| Agency CMBS(2) | 82 | 96 | 102 | 94 | 96 | (14) |
(1)Option adjusted spreads (“OAS”) are based on Company estimates using third-party models and market data. OAS shown for prior periods may differ from previous disclosures because the Company regularly updates the third-party model used.
(2)Data is sourced from J.P. Morgan and represents the spread to swap rate on newly issued Agency securities collateralized by multifamily properties.
Summary of 2025 Financial Performance
Our 2025 results directly reflected our ability to capitalize on this favorable environment while maintaining disciplined risk management. For the year ended December 31, 2025, our total economic return ("TER") of $2.75 per common share, or 21.6% of beginning book value, was comprised of an increase in book value of $0.75 per common share and dividends declared of $2.00 per common share. The increase in our book value was predominantly driven by asset appreciation due to tighter spreads between our asset yields and the yields on our interest rate swaps and Treasury futures.The Company's results for 2025 also benefited from higher net interest income due to its purchases of Agency RMBS and CMBS throughout the year at higher yield levels than 2024 while related repurchase agreement financing costs fell following three U.S. Federal Funds rate cuts in 2025. Our increase in the use of SOFR-based interest rate swaps in 2025 added to economic net interest income.
Our total equity and market capitalization as of December 31, 2025 more than doubled since December 31, 2024 primarily because we raised over $1.2 billion through the issuance of over 90 million shares of common stock pursuant to our ATM program. We deployed the majority of this capital into opportunities in the Agency MBS market, while also strengthening our organization with refreshed leadership, a new independent auditor, and an expanded office footprint.
For our shareholders, 2025 delivered a 29.4% total return including dividends and share price appreciation. Over this decade through December 31, 2025, Dynex shareholders have experienced a 67% cumulative total return, or approximately 9% annualized with dividends reinvested.
29
The following table summarizes the changes in the Company's financial position during the year ended December 31, 2025:
| ($s in thousands except per share data) | Net Change in Fair Value | Components of Comprehensive Income | Common Book Value Rollforward | Per Common Share | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance as of December 31, 2024 (1) | $ | 1,073,436 | $ | 12.70 | ||||||
| Net interest income | $ | 114,356 | ||||||||
| Periodic interest from interest rate swaps | 45,063 | |||||||||
| G & A and other operating expenses | (53,047) | |||||||||
| Preferred stock dividends | (10,191) | |||||||||
| Changes in fair value: | ||||||||||
| MBS and other | $ | 416,278 | ||||||||
| TBAs | 94,646 | |||||||||
| U.S. Treasury futures | (46,190) | |||||||||
| Options on U.S. Treasury futures | (7,852) | |||||||||
| Interest rate swaps | (194,715) | |||||||||
| Interest rate swaptions | (4,045) | |||||||||
| Total net change in fair value | 258,122 | |||||||||
| Comprehensive income to common shareholders | 354,303 | |||||||||
| Capital transactions: | ||||||||||
| Net proceeds from stock issuance (2) | 1,179,983 | |||||||||
| Common dividends declared | (257,078) | |||||||||
| Balance as of December 31, 2025 (1) | $ | 2,350,644 | $ | 13.45 |
(1)Amounts represent total shareholders' equity less the aggregate liquidation preference of the Company's preferred stock of $111.5 million, in thousands and on a per common share basis.
(2)Net proceeds from common stock issuance include approximately $1.2 billion from ATM issuances and approximately $11 million from amortization of share-based compensation, net of grants, during the year ended December 31, 2025.
Outlook for 2026
We believe the favorable macro environment for high-quality, liquid assets will persist into 2026, continuing to support Agency MBS performance. Recent policy actions now point toward a more stable and supportive framework for the mortgage market, creating a strong foundation for forward returns. Most notably, the Administration's January 2026 directive to the GSEs to purchase $200 billion in Agency MBS to support housing affordability creates a powerful technical tailwind. Combined with the potential for modest additional rate cuts, the policy environment has shifted decisively in favor of mortgage market stability. This clarity enhances our confidence in the path ahead for MBS spreads.
We anticipate sustained global demand for high-quality, liquid, dollar-denominated assets as geopolitical uncertainties persist and credit concerns mount in riskier sectors. Agency MBS remain uniquely positioned at the intersection of government-backed credit quality, superior yields to U.S. Treasuries, deep liquidity, and defensive characteristics appropriate for an uncertain late-cycle environment.
While spreads have tightened from the historically wide levels where we deployed capital in 2025, current valuations remain compelling on a forward-looking basis given the policy support, technical factors, and risk-adjusted return characteristics relative to alternatives.
30
FINANCIAL CONDITION
Investment Portfolio
Our investment portfolio (including TBAs) as of December 31, 2025, has increased 98% since December 31, 2024. We added $8.2 billion of Agency RMBS and $1.2 billion of Agency CMBS during the year ended December 31, 2025, of which $809 million were pending settlement as of December 31, 2025. The following charts compare the composition of our MBS portfolio (including TBAs) as of the dates indicated:
The following tables compare our 30-year fixed-rate Agency RMBS investments, including TBA dollar roll positions, as of the dates indicated:
| December 31, 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agency RMBS by Coupon | Par/Notional | Amortized Cost/Implied Cost Basis (3)(5) | Fair Value (4)(5) | Weighted Average | ||||||||||||||||||
| Loan Age(in months)(6) | 3 MonthCPR (6)(7) | Estimated Duration (8) | Market Yield (9) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.0% | $ | 603,965 | $ | 613,475 | $ | 497,097 | 63 | 5.2 | % | 7.42 | 4.68 | % | ||||||||||
| 2.5% | 516,325 | 535,039 | 444,904 | 64 | 5.1 | % | 7.02 | 4.67 | % | |||||||||||||
| 4.0% | 293,073 | 293,432 | 281,889 | 57 | 6.5 | % | 5.89 | 4.63 | % | |||||||||||||
| 4.5% (1) | 1,911,130 | 1,853,757 | 1,881,304 | 33 | 5.8 | % | 5.46 | 4.74 | % | |||||||||||||
| 5.0% | 3,974,655 | 3,913,622 | 3,997,537 | 21 | 5.9 | % | 4.62 | 4.91 | % | |||||||||||||
| 5.5% | 6,325,638 | 6,361,758 | 6,465,769 | 13 | 8.1 | % | 3.39 | 5.10 | % | |||||||||||||
| 6.0% | 1,381,567 | 1,419,727 | 1,432,860 | 9 | 8.2 | % | 2.28 | 5.14 | % | |||||||||||||
| TBA 4.0% | 1,162,000 | 1,101,441 | 1,102,764 | n/a | n/a | 6.29 | 4.76 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 4.5%(2) | 1,447,000 | 1,425,945 | 1,430,136 | n/a | n/a | 4.58 | 4.64 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 5.0% | 176,000 | 175,287 | 175,670 | n/a | n/a | 4.51 | 5.03 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 5.5% | 183,000 | 185,175 | 185,631 | n/a | n/a | 3.28 | 5.23 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 6.0% | 221,000 | 226,218 | 226,922 | n/a | n/a | 1.99 | 5.24 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 18,195,353 | $ | 18,104,876 | $ | 18,122,483 | 21 | 7.0 | % | 4.29 | 4.94 | % |
| December 31, 2024 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agency RMBS by Coupon | Par/Notional | Amortized Cost/Implied Cost Basis (3)(5) | Fair Value (4)(5) | Weighted Average | |||||||||||||||||||
| Loan Age(in months)(6) | 3 MonthCPR (6)(7) | Estimated Duration (8) | Market Yield (9) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.0% | $ | 655,356 | $ | 666,107 | $ | 516,541 | 51 | 5.0 | % | 6.49 | 5.42 | % | |||||||||||
| 2.5% | 561,625 | 582,776 | 463,402 | 52 | 4.3 | % | 6.37 | 5.33 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 4.0% | 324,615 | 325,091 | 299,774 | 45 | 6.4 | % | 5.92 | 5.25 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 4.5% | 1,323,371 | 1,291,410 | 1,252,219 | 27 | 7.4 | % | 5.79 | 5.33 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 5.0% | 2,356,262 | 2,315,518 | 2,284,613 | 18 | 5.7 | % | 5.19 | 5.47 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 5.5% | 2,193,064 | 2,207,296 | 2,178,180 | 13 | 5.3 | % | 4.53 | 5.61 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 6.0% | 303,470 | 307,211 | 307,509 | 13 | 13.2 | % | 3.60 | 5.74 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 4.0% | 462,000 | 424,917 | 421,796 | n/a | n/a | 6.62 | 5.20 | % | |||||||||||||||
| TBA 4.5% | 383,000 | 361,610 | 359,837 | n/a | n/a | 5.95 | 5.35 | % | |||||||||||||||
| TBA 5.0% | 710,000 | 693,938 | 684,706 | n/a | n/a | 5.20 | 5.51 | % | |||||||||||||||
| TBA 5.5% | 864,000 | 860,609 | 852,053 | n/a | n/a | 4.21 | 5.73 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 10,136,763 | $ | 10,036,483 | $ | 9,620,630 | 23 | 6.1 | % | 5.22 | 5.49 | % |
(1)Includes a par value of $9 million of 4.5% 15-year Agency RMBS.
(2)Includes a notional amount of $690 million of 4.5% 15-year TBA securities.
(3)Implied cost basis of TBAs represents the forward price to be paid for the underlying Agency MBS.
(4)Fair value of TBAs is the implied market value of the underlying Agency security as of the end of the period.
(5)TBAs are included on the consolidated balance sheet within “derivative assets/liabilities” at their net carrying value which is the difference between their implied market value and implied cost basis. Please refer to Note 5 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.
(6)TBAs are excluded from this calculation as they do not have a defined weighted-average loan balance or age until mortgages have been assigned to the pool.
(7)Constant prepayment rate (“CPR”) represents the 3-month CPR of Agency RMBS held as of date indicated.
(8)Duration measures the sensitivity of a security's price to the change in interest rates and represents the percent change in price of a security for a 100-basis point increase in interest rates. We calculate duration using third-party financial models and empirical data. Different models and methodologies can produce different estimates of duration for the same securities.
(9)Represents the weighted average market yield projected using cash flows generated from the forward curve based on market prices as of the date indicated and assuming zero volatility.
Our Agency CMBS consist of loans collateralized by multifamily properties. Though we expect our exposure to Agency CMBS to remain modest as a percentage of the total portfolio, we added Agency CMBS selectively during 2025 where the risk-adjusted return profile aligned with our broader strategy. In addition to offering strong relative value, Agency CMBS help diversify and stabilize the portfolio's cash flow and total return profile, given their unique prepayment characteristics and underlying asset base.
Agency CMBS IO are backed by loans collateralized by multifamily properties. Our Agency CMBS IO are from Freddie Mac Series K deals from which interest continues to be advanced even in the event of an underlying default up until liquidation. According to Freddie Mac, 99.7% of the loans in K-deals are current as of December 2025. Our non-Agency CMBS IO were all originated prior to 2018 and are backed by loans collateralized by a number of different property types, such as multifamily, office, retail, hotels, industrial, storage, and others. Our non-Agency CMBS IO investments are nearing maturity and have very little amortized cost remaining; any changes in actual payments may result in large swings in yield as shown below.
The following table provides certain information regarding our CMBS and CMBS IO as of the dates indicated:
| December 31, 2025 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($s in thousands) | Par/Notional Value | Amortized Cost | Fair Value | WAVG Life Remaining (1) | WAVG Market Yield (2) | |||||||||||
| Agency CMBS | $ | 1,210,953 | $ | 1,213,107 | $ | 1,218,343 | 5.5 | 4.25 | % | |||||||
| CMBS IO | 6,000,525 | 87,557 | 87,285 | 4.7 | 10.40 | % | ||||||||||
| Total | $ | 1,300,664 | $ | 1,305,628 | ||||||||||||
| December 31, 2024 | ||||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Par/Notional Value | Amortized Cost | Fair Value | WAVG Life Remaining (1) | WAVG Market Yield (2) | |||||||||||
| Agency CMBS | $ | 99,636 | $ | 99,848 | $ | 95,463 | 2.6 | 4.76 | % | |||||||
| CMBS IO | 8,647,176 | 117,591 | 114,386 | 4.5 | 12.65 | % | ||||||||||
| Total | $ | 217,439 | $ | 209,849 | ||||||||||||
| (1) Represents the weighted average life remaining in years based on contractual cash flows as of the dates indicated. | ||||||||||||||||
| (2) Represents the weighted average market yield projected using cash flows generated off the forward curve based on market prices as of the dates indicated and assuming zero volatility. |
Repurchase Agreements
Our repurchase agreement borrowings increased to $14 billion as of December 31, 2025 from $7 billion as of December 31, 2024. These borrowings were used to partially finance our purchases of Agency MBS during the year ended December 31, 2025. We have not experienced any difficulty in securing financing with any of our counterparties, and our repurchase agreement counterparties have not indicated any concerns regarding leverage or credit. Please refer to Note 4 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within this Annual Report on Form 10-K as well as “Results of Operations” and “Liquidity and Capital Resources” contained within this Item 7 for additional information relating to our repurchase agreement borrowings.
Derivative Assets and Liabilities
Please refer to Note 5 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for details on our interest rate hedging instruments as well as “Liquidity and Capital Resources” within Item 7 and “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk” within Item 7A of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
Year Ended December 31, 2025 Compared to the Year Ended December 31, 2024
Net Interest Income and Economic Net Interest Income
Net interest income and net interest spread increased for the year ended December 31, 2025, compared to the year ended December 31, 2024 due to the purchases of higher yielding Agency MBS over the past year. Though interest expense increased due to an increase in repurchase agreement borrowings used to finance these purchases, the average financing rate we paid declined 95 basis points year over year.
Net periodic interest earned on interest rate swaps increased for the year ended December 31, 2025, compared to the year ended December 31, 2024 due to a higher notional amount of interest rate swaps. The combination of higher interest earned on Agency MBS, lower financing rates, and higher periodic interest on interest rate swaps resulted in higher economic net interest income and higher economic net interest spread.
The following table presents information about our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities and their performance for the periods indicated:
| Year Ended | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Interest Income/Expense | Average Balance (1)(2) | Effective Yield/Financing Cost (3)(4) | Interest Income/Expense | Average Balance (1)(2) | Effective Yield/Financing Cost (3)(4) | |||||||||||||||
| Agency RMBS | $ | 487,894 | 10,076,482 | 4.84 | % | $ | 289,781 | $ | 6,477,575 | 4.47 | % | ||||||||||
| Agency CMBS | 18,051 | 422,520 | 4.21 | % | 3,247 | 106,641 | 3.00 | % | |||||||||||||
| CMBS IO (5) | 8,169 | 101,600 | 8.04 | % | 11,029 | 140,353 | 7.86 | % | |||||||||||||
| Other investments | 49 | 887 | 3.99 | % | 78 | 1,396 | 5.04 | % | |||||||||||||
| Subtotal | $ | 514,163 | $ | 10,601,489 | 4.85 | % | $ | 304,135 | $ | 6,725,965 | 4.52 | % | |||||||||
| Cash equivalents | 19,358 | 15,399 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Total interest income | $ | 533,521 | $ | 319,534 | |||||||||||||||||
| Repurchase agreement financing | (419,165) | 9,431,455 | (4.38) | % | (313,657) | 5,790,037 | (5.33) | % | |||||||||||||
| Net interest income (expense)/spread | $ | 114,356 | 0.47 | % | $ | 5,877 | (0.81) | % | |||||||||||||
| Net periodic interest (6) | 45,063 | 0.48 | % | 16,105 | 0.28 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Economic net interest income (expense)/spread (6) | $ | 159,419 | 0.95 | % | $ | 21,982 | (0.53) | % | |||||||||||||
| *Table Note: Data may not foot due to rounding. |
(1)Average balance for assets is calculated as a simple average of the daily amortized cost and excludes securities pending settlement if applicable.
(2)Average balance for liabilities is calculated as a simple average of the daily borrowings outstanding during the period.
(3)Effective yield is calculated by dividing interest income by the average balance of asset type outstanding during the reporting period. Unscheduled adjustments to premium/discount amortization/accretion, such as for prepayment compensation, are not annualized in this calculation.
(4)Financing cost is calculated by dividing annualized interest expense by the total average balance of borrowings outstanding during the period with an assumption of 360 days in a year.
(5)Includes Agency and non-Agency issued securities.
(6)Net periodic interest is the difference between the fixed interest rate we pay and the variable interest rate we receive on our interest rate swaps. It is a component of economic net interest income (expense), a non-GAAP measure. Please refer to the section below “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for more information.
The following table presents information regarding the performance of our TBA dollar roll transactions for the periods indicated:
| Year Ended | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 2024 | |||||||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Implied Net Interest Income (1) | Average Balance | Implied Net Spread | Implied Net Interest Expense (1) | Average Balance | Implied Net Spread | ||||||||||||||
| TBAs | $ | 15,807 | $ | 2,483,899 | 0.63 | % | (2,694) | 2,044,740 | (0.13) | % |
(1)Implied net interest income (expense) is also referred to as “drop income (loss)” and represents a portion of the total realized gain (loss) from our TBA dollar roll transactions recorded within “gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net.”
Gains (Losses) on Investments and Derivative Instruments
For the year ended December 31, 2025, gains on our investment portfolio exceeded losses on our hedges by approximately $303 million, which includes $45 million in net periodic interest we earned from interest rate swaps. The fair value of our investment portfolio increased during the year ended December 31, 2025 primarily due to the tightening of mortgage spreads to U.S. Treasuries relative to wider spreads at the time of purchase. U.S. Treasury rates and SOFR-based swap rates declined overall during the year ended December 31, 2025, which resulted in losses on our hedging portfolio.
For the year ended December 31, 2024, net gains from our interest rate hedging portfolio exceeded the net loss in fair value of our investments by $131 million. Through repositioning of our interest rate hedging portfolio, we managed through the volatile interest rate environment of 2024 to offset the negative impact of the increasing 10-year U.S. Treasury rate on our investment portfolio, which was also negatively impacted by widening credit spreads for the majority of 2024.
The following tables provide details on realized and unrealized gains and losses within our investment and interest rate hedging portfolios for the periods indicated:
| Year Ended | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | |||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Realized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in OCI | Total Change in Fair Value | |||||||||||
| Investment portfolio: | |||||||||||||||
| Agency RMBS | $ | — | $ | 362,327 | $ | 41,394 | $ | 403,721 | |||||||
| Agency CMBS | — | 7,298 | 2,322 | 9,620 | |||||||||||
| CMBS IO | — | 1,221 | 1,712 | 2,933 | |||||||||||
| Other investments | — | 4 | — | 4 | |||||||||||
| Subtotal | — | 370,850 | 45,428 | 416,278 | |||||||||||
| TBA securities (1) | 64,909 | 29,737 | — | 94,646 | |||||||||||
| Net gain on investments | $ | 64,909 | $ | 400,587 | $ | 45,428 | $ | 510,924 | |||||||
| Interest rate hedging portfolio: | |||||||||||||||
| U.S. Treasury futures | $ | (66,906) | $ | 20,716 | $ | — | $ | (46,190) | |||||||
| Interest rate swaps (2) | 45,063 | (194,715) | — | (149,652) | |||||||||||
| Interest rate swaptions | — | (4,045) | — | (4,045) | |||||||||||
| Options on U.S. Treasury futures | (6,527) | (1,325) | — | (7,852) | |||||||||||
| Net loss on interest rate hedges | $ | (28,370) | $ | (179,369) | $ | — | $ | (207,739) | |||||||
| Total net gain | $ | 36,539 | $ | 221,218 | $ | 45,428 | $ | 303,185 |
| Year Ended | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2024 | |||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Realized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in OCI | Total Change in Fair Value | |||||||||||
| Investment portfolio: | |||||||||||||||
| Agency RMBS | $ | — | $ | (144,139) | $ | (18,642) | $ | (162,781) | |||||||
| Agency CMBS | (1,506) | 1,073 | 747 | 314 | |||||||||||
| CMBS IO | — | 531 | 3,861 | 4,392 | |||||||||||
| Other investments | — | 183 | 47 | 230 | |||||||||||
| Subtotal | (1,506) | (142,352) | (13,987) | (157,845) | |||||||||||
| TBA securities (1) | 38,530 | (77,042) | — | (38,512) | |||||||||||
| Net gain (loss) on investments | $ | 37,024 | $ | (219,394) | $ | (13,987) | $ | (196,357) | |||||||
| Interest rate hedging portfolio: | |||||||||||||||
| U.S. Treasury futures | $ | (46,955) | $ | 221,063 | $ | — | $ | 174,108 | |||||||
| Interest rate swaps | 16,105 | 136,676 | — | 152,781 | |||||||||||
| Net (loss) gain on interest rate hedges | $ | (30,850) | $ | 357,739 | $ | — | $ | 326,889 | |||||||
| Total net gain (loss) | $ | 6,174 | $ | 138,345 | $ | (13,987) | $ | 130,532 |
(1)Realized and unrealized gains (losses) on TBA securities are recorded within “gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net” on the Company’s consolidated statements of comprehensive income.
(2)Realized gain (loss) for interest rate swaps consists of net periodic interest benefit of $45.1 million for the year ended December 31, 2025 and $16.1 million for the year ended December 31, 2024.
Operating Expenses
Operating expenses for the year ended December 31, 2025 increased $17 million compared to the year ended December 31, 2024 due to higher salary, bonus, and share-based compensation expenses, primarily resulting from an increase in performance-based compensation accruals and from the hiring of new employees. Audit and legal expenses also increased in 2025 compared to 2024 primarily due to the growth of the Company.
Year Ended December 31, 2024 Compared to the Year Ended December 31, 2023
Please refer to “Results of Operations” within Item 7 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024 for a discussion of the results of operations for the year ended December 31, 2024 compared to the year ended December 31, 2023, which is incorporated herein by reference.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
In addition to reporting the Company’s financial results determined in accordance with GAAP, management of the Company believes that investors’ understanding of our operating results may be enhanced by the use of non-GAAP financial measures, which are used by management internally, along with GAAP measures, to evaluate our performance. Our non-GAAP financial measures include earnings available for distribution (“EAD”) to common shareholders (including per common share) and economic net interest income and the related metric
economic net interest spread. Management believes these non-GAAP financial measures may be useful to investors because they are viewed by management as additional measures of the investment portfolio’s return.
Drop income generated by TBA dollar roll positions, which is included in "gain (loss) on derivatives instruments, net" on the Company's consolidated statements of comprehensive income, is included in EAD because management views drop income as the economic equivalent of net interest income (interest income less implied financing cost) on the underlying Agency security from trade date to settlement date. However, drop income/loss does not represent the total realized gain/loss from the Company’s investments in TBA securities.
Management also includes net periodic interest from its interest rate swaps, which is included in "gain (loss) on derivatives instruments, net," in EAD and economic net interest income because interest rate swaps are used by the Company to economically hedge the impact of changing interest rates on its borrowing costs from repurchase agreements, and including net periodic interest from interest rate swaps is a helpful indicator of the Company’s total financing cost in addition to GAAP interest expense.
Non-GAAP financial measures are not a substitute for GAAP measures and may be different from non-GAAP measures used by other companies. In addition, other companies, including in our industry, may calculate comparable measures differently, which reduces their usefulness as comparative measures. Investors should not rely on any single financial measure when evaluating our business. These non-GAAP measures should be considered as supplemental in nature and not as a substitute for our operating results in accordance with GAAP.
Reconciliations of each non-GAAP measure to certain GAAP financial measures are provided below.
| Year Ended | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reconciliations of GAAP to Non-GAAP Financial Measures: | December 31, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | |||||||||
| ($s in thousands except per share data) | |||||||||||
| Comprehensive income to common shareholders (GAAP) | $ | 354,303 | $ | 92,217 | |||||||
| Less: | |||||||||||
| Change in fair value of investments (1) | (416,278) | 157,845 | |||||||||
| Change in fair value of derivative instruments, net (2) | 173,963 | (274,966) | |||||||||
| EAD to common shareholders (non-GAAP) | $ | 111,988 | $ | (24,904) | |||||||
| Average common shares outstanding | 124,128,422 | 70,766,410 | |||||||||
| EAD per common share (non-GAAP) | $ | 0.90 | $ | (0.35) | |||||||
| Net interest income (GAAP) | $ | 114,356 | $ | 5,877 | |||||||
| Net periodic interest earned from interest rate swaps | 45,063 | 16,105 | |||||||||
| Economic net interest income (non-GAAP) | 159,419 | 21,982 | |||||||||
| TBA drop income (loss) (3) | 15,807 | (2,694) | |||||||||
| Total operating expenses | (53,047) | (36,498) | |||||||||
| Preferred stock dividends | (10,191) | (7,694) | |||||||||
| EAD to common shareholders (non-GAAP) | $ | 111,988 | $ | (24,904) | |||||||
| Net interest spread (GAAP) | 0.47 | % | (0.81) | % | |||||||
| Net periodic interest from interest rate swaps as a percentage of average repurchase borrowings | 0.48 | % | 0.28 | % | |||||||
| Economic net interest spread (non-GAAP) | 0.95 | % | (0.53) | % |
(1)Amount includes realized and unrealized gains and losses due to changes in the fair value of the Company’s MBS.
(2)The following table reconciles “change in fair value of derivative instruments, net” to the “gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net” shown on the consolidated statements of comprehensive income.
| Year Ended | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($s in thousands) | December 31, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | ||||||||
| (Loss) gain on derivative instruments, net | $ | (113,093) | $ | 288,377 | ||||||
| Less: | ||||||||||
| TBA drop (income) loss | (15,807) | 2,694 | ||||||||
| Net periodic interest earned from interest rate swaps | (45,063) | (16,105) | ||||||||
| Change in fair value of derivative instruments, net | $ | (173,963) | $ | 274,966 |
(3)TBA drop income is calculated by multiplying the notional amount of the TBA dollar roll positions by the difference in price between two TBA securities with the same terms but different settlement dates.
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Our primary sources of liquidity include borrowings under repurchase arrangements and monthly principal and interest payments we receive on our investments. Additional sources may include proceeds from the sale of investments, equity offerings, and net payments received from counterparties for derivative instruments. We use our liquidity to purchase investments, to pay amounts due on our repurchase agreement borrowings, and to pay our operating expenses and dividends on our common and preferred stock. We also use our liquidity to meet margin requirements for our repurchase agreements and derivative transactions, including TBA contracts, under the terms of the related agreements. We may also periodically use liquidity to repurchase shares of the Company’s stock.
During the year ended December 31, 2025, we issued 90,126,672 shares of common stock through our ATM program, resulting in proceeds of $1.2 billion, net of broker commissions and fees. We partially deployed these proceeds into Agency RMBS and to post initial margin requirements related to a larger hedging portfolio.
Our liquidity fluctuates based on our investment activities, leverage, capital raising activities, and changes in the fair value of our investments and derivative instruments. Our measurement of liquidity includes unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and unpledged Agency MBS, which are recognized as assets on our consolidated balance sheet. In our measure of liquidity, we also include the fair value of noncash collateral pledged to us by our counterparties, which we typically receive when the fair value of our pledged collateral exceeds our current margin requirement. Our liquidity as of December 31, 2025, was approximately $1.4 billion, which consisted of unrestricted cash of $531 million, unpledged Agency MBS with a fair value of $901 million, and noncash collateral pledged by our counterparties of $1 million. Our liquidity as of December 31, 2024, was $658 million.
We continuously monitor our liquidity, especially with potential risk events on the horizon, such as tariff changes, potential GSE transition, uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policy decisions, the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, quantitative tightening or easing measures, federal government shutdowns, and the impact on global markets stemming from global central bank policies. We are also monitoring the wars and conflicts around the globe. We continuously assess the adequacy of our liquidity under various scenarios based on changes in the fair value of our investments and derivative instruments due to market factors such as changes in the absolute level of interest rates and the shape of the yield curve, credit spreads, lender haircuts, and prepayment speeds, which in turn have an impact on margin requirements. In performing these analyses, we also consider the current state of the fixed-income markets and the repurchase agreement markets to determine if market forces such as supply-demand imbalances or structural changes to these markets could change the liquidity of MBS or the availability of financing. We have not experienced any material changes in the terms of our repurchase agreements with our counterparties, and they have not indicated to us any concerns regarding access to liquidity.
In addition to the GSE guarantee of principal payments on our Agency investments, we expect the capital and repurchase agreement markets will remain accessible at capacities sufficient to cover our short-term and long-term liquidity needs.
Our perception of the liquidity of our investments and market conditions significantly influences our targeted leverage. In general, our leverage will increase if we view the risk-reward opportunity of higher leverage on our capital outweighs the risk to our liquidity and book value. Our leverage, which we calculate using total liabilities plus the cost basis of TBA long positions, was 7.3 times shareholders’ equity as of December 31, 2025. We include 100% of the cost basis of our TBA securities in evaluating our leverage because it is possible under certain market conditions that it may be uneconomical for us to roll a TBA long position into future months, which may result in us having to take physical delivery of the underlying securities and use cash or other financing sources to fund our total purchase commitment.
Repurchase Agreements
Leverage based solely on repurchase agreement amounts outstanding was 5.6 times shareholders’ equity as of December 31, 2025. Our repurchase agreement borrowings are uncommitted with terms renewable at the discretion of our lenders and generally have original terms to maturity of overnight to six months, though in some instances, we may enter into longer-dated maturities depending on market conditions. We seek to maintain unused capacity under our existing repurchase agreement credit lines with multiple counterparties, which helps protect us in the event of a counterparty's failure to renew existing repurchase agreements. As part of our continuous evaluation of counterparty risk, we maintain our highest counterparty exposures with broker-dealer subsidiaries of regulated financial institutions or primary dealers.
The amount outstanding for our repurchase agreement borrowings will typically fluctuate in any given period as it is dependent upon several factors, but particularly the extent to which we are active in buying and selling securities, including the volume of activity in TBA dollar roll transactions versus buying specified pools. The following table presents information regarding the balances of our repurchase agreement borrowings as of and for the periods indicated:
| Repurchase Agreements | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($s in thousands) | Balance Outstanding As of Quarter End | Average Balance Outstanding For the Quarter Ended | Maximum Balance Outstanding During the Quarter Ended | |||||||
| December 31, 2025 | $ | 13,904,231 | $ | 12,469,902 | $ | 13,904,304 | ||||
| September 30, 2025 | 11,753,522 | 10,468,568 | 11,754,581 | |||||||
| June 30, 2025 | 8,600,143 | 7,871,627 | 8,600,487 | |||||||
| March 31, 2025 | 7,234,723 | 6,842,485 | 7,234,723 | |||||||
| December 31, 2024 | 6,563,120 | 6,431,743 | 6,568,805 | |||||||
| September 30, 2024 | 6,423,890 | 5,943,805 | 6,461,475 | |||||||
| June 30, 2024 | 5,494,428 | 5,410,282 | 5,529,856 | |||||||
| March 31, 2024 | 5,284,708 | 5,365,575 | 5,469,434 | |||||||
| December 31, 2023 | 5,381,104 | 5,168,821 | 5,381,354 | |||||||
| September 30, 2023 | 5,002,230 | 4,773,435 | 5,037,440 | |||||||
| June 30, 2023 | 4,201,901 | 3,447,406 | 4,203,788 | |||||||
| March 31, 2023 | 2,937,124 | 2,713,481 | 2,959,263 |
For our repurchase agreement borrowings, we are required to post and maintain margin to the lender (i.e., collateral in excess of the repurchase agreement borrowing) in order to support the amount of the financing. This excess collateral is often referred to as a “haircut” and is intended to provide the lender protection against fluctuations in the fair value of the collateral and/or the failure by us to repay the borrowing at maturity. Lenders have the right to change haircut requirements at maturity of the repurchase agreement and may change their haircuts based on market conditions and the perceived riskiness of the collateral pledged. If the fair value of the collateral falls below the amount required by the lender, the lender has the right to demand additional margin or collateral. If we fail to meet any margin call, our lenders have the right to terminate the repurchase agreement and sell any collateral pledged. The weighted average haircut for our borrowings as of December 31, 2025, was consistent with
prior periods, typically averaging less than 5% for borrowings collateralized with Agency RMBS and CMBS and between 10-14% for borrowings collateralized with CMBS IO.
The collateral we post in excess of our repurchase agreement borrowing with any counterparty is also typically referred to by us as “equity at risk,” which represents the potential loss to the Company if the counterparty is unable or unwilling to return collateral securing the repurchase agreement borrowing at its maturity. The counterparties with whom we have the greatest amounts of equity at risk may vary significantly during any given period due to the short-term and uncommitted nature of the repurchase agreement borrowings. As of December 31, 2025, we had amounts outstanding under 28 different repurchase agreements and did not have more than 10% of equity at risk with any counterparty or group of related counterparties.
We have various financial and operating covenants in certain of our repurchase agreements, which we monitor and evaluate on an ongoing basis for compliance as well as for impacts these customary covenants may have on our operating and financing flexibility. We do not believe we are subject to any covenants that materially restrict our financing flexibility. We were in full compliance with our debt covenants as of December 31, 2025, and we are not aware of circumstances that could potentially result in our non-compliance in the near future.
Derivative Instruments
Derivative instruments we enter into may require us to post initial margin at inception and daily variation margin based on subsequent changes in their fair value. Daily variation margin requirements also entitle us to receive collateral from our counterparties if the value of amounts owed to us under the derivative agreement exceeds the minimum margin requirement. The collateral posted as margin by us is typically in cash. As of December 31, 2025, we had cash collateral posted to our counterparties of $399 million under these agreements.
Collateral requirements for interest rate derivative instruments are typically governed by the central clearing exchange and the associated futures commission merchant, which may establish margin requirements in excess of the clearing exchange. Collateral requirements for our TBA contracts are governed by the MBSD of the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation and, if applicable, by our third-party brokerage agreements, which may establish margin levels in excess of the MBSD. Our TBA contracts, which are subject to master securities forward transaction agreements published by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association as well as supplemental terms and conditions with each counterparty, generally provide that valuations for our TBA contracts and any pledged collateral are to be obtained from a generally recognized source agreed to by both parties. However, in certain circumstances, our counterparties have the sole discretion to determine the value of the TBA contract and any pledged collateral. In such instances, our counterparties are required to act in good faith in making determinations of value. In the event of a margin call, we must generally provide additional collateral on the same business day.
The following table provides details on the “net (payments) receipts on derivative instruments” shown on our consolidated statements of cash flows for the periods indicated:
| Year Ended | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, | |||||||||||
| Cash received or paid by instrument: | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | |||||||||||
| Interest rate swaps: | |||||||||||
| Net variation margin (paid) received | $ | (204,751) | $ | 146,379 | $ | — | |||||
| Net periodic interest (1) | 49,457 | — | — | ||||||||
| (155,294) | 146,379 | — | |||||||||
| U.S. Treasury futures: | |||||||||||
| Net variation margin (paid) received | 19,457 | 218,399 | (214,622) | ||||||||
| Paid upon maturity/termination | (66,906) | (46,955) | 207,456 | ||||||||
| (47,449) | 171,444 | (7,166) | |||||||||
| Options on U.S. Treasury futures | |||||||||||
| Premium paid at inception | (11,989) | — | — | ||||||||
| Received upon maturity/termination | 1,481 | — | 7,448 | ||||||||
| (10,508) | — | 7,448 | |||||||||
| TBA securities: | |||||||||||
| Received (paid) upon settlement | 59,812 | 45,106 | (96,250) | ||||||||
| Net (payments) receipts on derivative instruments | $ | (153,439) | $ | 362,929 | $ | (95,968) |
(1)Net periodic interest from our effective interest rate swaps is recognized as income or expense during the period earned or incurred, but the cash is not received or paid until the anniversary of each agreement’s effective date or upon maturity.
Dividends
We set our dividend based on many factors, including our view on long-term returns, yield on comparable investments, liquidity and market risk, and taxable income. Among these factors, we focus on economic returns and taxable income within the context of the distribution requirements. As a REIT, we are required to distribute to our shareholders amounts equal to at least 90% of our REIT taxable income for each taxable year after certain deductions, including the separate dividend requirements of the Series C Preferred Stock.
We designate certain derivative instruments as interest rate hedges for tax purposes. Realized gains (losses) resulting from the difference in fair value and the amount of cash received or paid upon termination or maturity of designated derivative instruments are included in GAAP earnings in the same reporting period in which the derivative instrument matures or is terminated by the Company but are generally not recognized in REIT taxable income until future periods. Non-designated derivative instruments are included in GAAP earnings and REIT taxable income in the same period the derivative instrument matures or is terminated by the Company. Our remaining net deferred tax hedge gain was estimated to be $558 million as of December 31, 2025, which will be amortized into REIT taxable income over several years. As of December 31, 2025, we also had $505 million in capital loss carryforwards, all of which will expire by either December 31, 2027 or by December 31, 2028. Due to these amounts and other temporary and permanent differences between GAAP net income and REIT taxable income, coupled with the uncertainty inherent in the forward interest rate curve, we cannot reasonably estimate how much the deferred tax hedge gains to be recognized will impact our dividend declarations during 2026 or in any given period.
We fund dividend distributions through portfolio cash flows, existing cash balances, or through the return of principal from our investments (either through repayment or sale). Please refer to "Operating and Regulatory Structure" within Part I, Item 1, "Business," as well as Part I, Item 1A, “Risk Factors” of this Annual Report on
Form 10-K for additional important information regarding our deferred tax hedge gains and dividends declared on our taxable income.
RECENT ACCOUNTING PRONOUNCEMENTS
Please refer to Note 1 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
The discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations are based in large part upon our consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. The preparation of our consolidated financial statements requires management to make estimates, judgments and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues, and expenses and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities. We base these estimates and judgments on historical experience and assumptions believed to be reasonable under current facts and circumstances. Actual results, however, may differ significantly from the estimated amounts we have recorded.
The following discussion provides information on our critical accounting policies, which require management's most difficult, subjective, or complex judgments, and may result in materially different results under different assumptions and conditions. Please also refer to Note 1 of our Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements included within Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information related to significant accounting policies.
Fair Value Measurements. The fair value of our Agency MBS is based on prices received from an independent third-party pricing service. Most of our MBS are substantially similar to securities actively traded and observable in the market. In valuing a security, the pricing service primarily uses a market approach, which uses observable prices and other relevant information that is generated by market transactions of identical or similar securities, but may also use an income approach, which uses valuation techniques such as discounted cash flow modeling. Examples of the observable inputs and assumptions used in the valuation techniques include market interest rates, credit spreads, and projected prepayment speeds, among other factors. If the fair value of a security is not available from a third-party pricing service, we may estimate the fair value of the security through a variety of methods using observable market data.
Management reviews the prices it receives from the pricing service for reasonableness using additional third-party pricing services. If the price of a security is obtained from quoted prices for similar instruments or model-derived valuations whose inputs are observable, the security is classified as a level 2 security. The security is classified as a level 3 security if the inputs are unobservable, resulting in an estimate of fair value based primarily on management's judgment. Although it is rare, we may exclude a price received from a third party if we determine, based on our knowledge and expertise of the market, that the price received is significantly different from other observable market data. Please refer to Note 6 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information on fair value measurements.
MD&A history
Prior-year 10-K MD&A spans are extracted from SEC filings with the same bounded parser used for the latest filing. The latest 10-K appears above; prior years are below.
FY 2024 10-K MD&A
SEC filing source: 0000826675-25-000021.
ITEM 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with our financial statements and the related notes included in Part II, Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data” in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of various factors including, but not limited to, those disclosed in Part I, Item 1A, “Risk Factors” elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K and in other documents filed with the SEC and otherwise publicly disclosed. Please refer to “Forward-Looking Statements” contained within this Item 7 for additional information. This discussion also contains non-GAAP financial measures, which are discussed in the section “Non-GAAP Financial Measures.”
For a complete description of our business, including our operating policies, investment philosophy and strategy, financing and hedging strategies, and other important information, please refer to Part I, Item 1 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW
In late 2023, the 10-year U.S. Treasury approached 5% based on inflation fears, but into the end of 2023 and early 2024, there was optimism that many rate cuts were on the near term horizon which spurred longer term rates to fall in the early part of 2024. As the year progressed and more economic data was available, it became clear that growth was still moderate and the early outlook for rate cuts was too aggressive. Beginning in September, the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates, reversing the direction of short-term rates for the first time since March of 2022. The Federal Funds rate cut in September was followed by two more rate cuts before year end. This shift in policy and the outlook for 2025 changed the shape of the yield curve, and by the end of 2024, the yield curve was no longer inverted with short-term rates below longer-term rates. This change in the shape of the yield curve allows levered mortgage investors, like Dynex, to earn a positive carry by investing in longer term bonds with a higher yield than its repurchase based financing cost which is generally tied to shorter-term rates. Mortgage spreads to Treasuries remained elevated for most of 2024 which provided for solid opportunities to buy assets that will generate good returns over the long term.
Market Data
The charts below show the range of U.S. Treasury rates for the past year and information regarding market spreads as of and for the periods indicated:
27
| Market Spreads as of: | Change in Spreads YTD | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment Type: (1) | December 31, 2024 | September 30, 2024 | June 30, 2024 | March 31, 2024 | December 31, 2023 | |||||||
| Agency RMBS: | ||||||||||||
| 2.0% coupon | 89 | 83 | 86 | 84 | 76 | 13 | ||||||
| 2.5% coupon | 93 | 83 | 87 | 84 | 78 | 15 | ||||||
| 4.0% coupon | 69 | 71 | 78 | 74 | 74 | (5) | ||||||
| 4.5% coupon | 68 | 70 | 73 | 71 | 73 | (5) | ||||||
| 5.0% coupon | 69 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | — | ||||||
| 5.5% coupon | 72 | 64 | 68 | 65 | 66 | 6 | ||||||
| 6.0% coupon | 74 | 54 | 65 | 62 | 60 | 14 | ||||||
| Agency DUS (Agency CMBS)(2) | 96 | 104 | 95 | 94 | 105 | (9) | ||||||
| Freddie K AAA IO (Agency CMBS IO)(2) | 120 | 135 | 150 | 165 | 180 | (60) | ||||||
| AAA CMBS IO (Non-Agency CMBS IO)(2) | 119 | 122 | 135 | 168 | 225 | (106) |
(1)Option adjusted spreads (“OAS”) are based on Company estimates using third-party models and market data. OAS shown for prior periods may differ from previous disclosures because the Company regularly updates the third-party model used.
(2)Data represents the spread to swap rate on newly issued securities and is sourced from J.P. Morgan.
Summary of Results
As a result of capital raising and a more favorable investing environment, we significantly grew our balance sheet during the year ended December 31, 2024. Our total assets increased over 28%, and our total shareholders’ equity increased over 36%. During the year, we added approximately $2.2 billion in higher coupon Agency RMBS at a lower cost of financing, which improved our net interest income to $5.9 million versus a loss of $(7.9) million in the prior year. As the yield curve un-inverted, we repositioned our hedges, changing the majority of our interest rate derivatives from U.S. Treasury futures to interest rate swaps, which contributed net periodic interest of $16.1 million to our earnings for the year ended December 31, 2024. Our investment portfolio declined in fair value because the increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate as well as widening of credit spreads. However, gains from our hedging portfolio exceeded the losses in fair value of our investments by $130.5 million. Despite the growth in our balance sheet, we managed our operating expenses and lowered our expense ratio by approximately 70 basis points compared to the prior year.
28
The following table summarizes the changes in the Company's financial position during 2024:
| ($s in thousands except per share data) | Net Change in Fair Value | Components of Comprehensive Income | Common Book Value Rollforward | Per Common Share | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance as of December 31, 2023 (1) | $ | 759,235 | $ | 13.31 | ||||||
| Net interest income | $ | 5,877 | ||||||||
| G & A and other operating expenses | (36,498) | |||||||||
| Preferred stock dividends | (7,694) | |||||||||
| Changes in fair value: | ||||||||||
| MBS and loans | $ | (157,845) | ||||||||
| TBAs | (38,512) | |||||||||
| U.S. Treasury futures | 174,108 | |||||||||
| Interest rate swaps | 152,781 | |||||||||
| Total net change in fair value | 130,532 | |||||||||
| Comprehensive income to common shareholders | 92,217 | |||||||||
| Capital transactions: | ||||||||||
| Net proceeds from stock issuance (2) | 338,315 | |||||||||
| Common dividends declared | (116,331) | |||||||||
| Balance as of December 31, 2024 (1) | $ | 1,073,436 | $ | 12.70 |
(1)Amounts represent total shareholders' equity less the aggregate liquidation preference of the Company's preferred stock of $111.5 million, in thousands and on a per common share basis.
(2)Net proceeds from stock issuance include $6.3 million from amortization of share-based compensation, net of grants, and adjustments for payroll tax withholding on share-based compensation vesting during the year ended December 31, 2024.
Current Outlook
Inflation fears that drove U.S. Federal Reserve policy over the last three years are starting to subside, which allowed the Federal Open Market Committee to start cutting the U.S. Federal Funds rate in the second half of 2024. The shape of the yield curve and less restrictive monetary policy in 2025 provide an investment backdrop that is very different than the last two years, which were marked by rising short-term rates and a prolonged period of an inverted yield curve. Historically wide spreads provide us a good environment to invest into, and the swaps market further supports portfolio returns for levered mortgage investors like Dynex. With rapidly evolving geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, we are focused on regulatory changes and the potential range of impacts on monetary policy, yield curve, and generally supply and demand dynamics. We are also prepared for bouts of volatility and spread widening, which may cause temporary declines in the market value of our assets but should provide for compelling returns for our investors longer term. Inflation is still a focus and tax policy may cause changes to the inflation outlook. The financing environment is still liquid and supportive of ownership of high-quality liquid assets such as Agency MBS. We may continue to expand our capital base through the ATM program to deploy into an attractive market, achieve scale, and continue to attract higher price-to-book multiple on our common stock price.
29
FINANCIAL CONDITION
Investment Portfolio
Our investment portfolio (including TBAs) as of December 31, 2024, increased approximately 32% compared to December 31, 2023. The following charts compare the composition of our MBS portfolio (including TBAs) as of the dates indicated:
We purchased approximately $2.2 billion of higher coupon Agency RMBS during the year ended December 31, 2024, of which $335.1 million were pending settlement as of December 31, 2024. We also increased our TBA positions by a notional of $1.0 billion during the year ended December 31, 2024. The following tables compare our fixed-rate Agency RMBS investments, including TBA dollar roll positions, as of the dates indicated:
| December 31, 2024 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Par/Notional | Amortized Cost/Implied Cost Basis (1)(3) | Fair Value (2)(3) | Weighted Average | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Coupon | Loan Age(in months)(4) | 3 MonthCPR (4)(5) | Estimated Duration (6) | Market Yield (7) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 30-year fixed-rate: | ($s in thousands) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.0% | $ | 655,356 | $ | 666,107 | $ | 516,541 | 51 | 5.0 | % | 6.49 | 5.42 | % | |||||||||||
| 2.5% | 561,625 | 582,776 | 463,402 | 52 | 4.3 | % | 6.37 | 5.33 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 4.0% | 324,615 | 325,091 | 299,774 | 45 | 6.4 | % | 5.92 | 5.25 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 4.5% | 1,323,371 | 1,291,410 | 1,252,219 | 27 | 7.4 | % | 5.79 | 5.33 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 5.0% | 2,356,262 | 2,315,518 | 2,284,613 | 18 | 5.7 | % | 5.19 | 5.47 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 5.5% | 2,193,064 | 2,207,296 | 2,178,180 | 13 | 5.3 | % | 4.53 | 5.61 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 6.0% | 303,470 | 307,211 | 307,509 | 13 | 13.2 | % | 3.60 | 5.74 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 4.0% | 462,000 | 424,917 | 421,796 | n/a | n/a | 6.62 | 5.20 | % | |||||||||||||||
| TBA 4.5% | 383,000 | 361,610 | 359,837 | n/a | n/a | 5.95 | 5.35 | % | |||||||||||||||
| TBA 5.0% | 710,000 | 693,938 | 684,706 | n/a | n/a | 5.20 | 5.51 | % | |||||||||||||||
| TBA 5.5% | 864,000 | 860,609 | 852,053 | n/a | n/a | 4.21 | 5.73 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 10,136,763 | $ | 10,036,483 | $ | 9,620,630 | 23 | 6.1 | % | 5.22 | 5.49 | % |
| December 31, 2023 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Par/Notional | Amortized Cost/Implied Cost Basis (1)(3) | Fair Value (2)(3) | Weighted Average | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Coupon | Loan Age(in months)(4) | 3 MonthCPR (4)(5) | Estimated Duration (6) | Market Yield (7) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 30-year fixed-rate: | ($s in thousands) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.0% | $ | 708,528 | $ | 720,611 | $ | 586,361 | 39 | 4.4 | % | 6.81 | 4.60 | % | |||||||||||
| 2.5% | 608,580 | 632,343 | 525,018 | 40 | 4.5 | % | 6.62 | 4.59 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 4.0% | 354,382 | 354,965 | 339,212 | 34 | 5.5 | % | 5.65 | 4.67 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 4.5% | 1,383,019 | 1,350,697 | 1,348,108 | 15 | 5.0 | % | 5.08 | 4.88 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 5.0% | 2,070,473 | 2,035,088 | 2,057,309 | 9 | 4.7 | % | 4.24 | 5.10 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 5.5% | 897,520 | 900,218 | 907,524 | 8 | 5.0 | % | 3.58 | 5.29 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 4.0% | 262,000 | 240,641 | 248,040 | n/a | n/a | 5.89 | 4.72 | % | |||||||||||||||
| TBA 4.5% | 223,000 | 210,940 | 216,415 | n/a | n/a | 4.75 | 4.92 | % | |||||||||||||||
| TBA 5.0% | 518,000 | 490,466 | 512,982 | n/a | n/a | 3.98 | 5.15 | % | |||||||||||||||
| TBA 5.5% | 200,000 | 191,926 | 201,047 | n/a | n/a | 2.81 | 5.36 | % | |||||||||||||||
| TBA 6.0% | 200,000 | 193,369 | 203,219 | n/a | n/a | 2.15 | 5.37 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 7,425,502 | $ | 7,321,264 | $ | 7,145,235 | 17 | 4.8 | % | 4.72 | 4.98 | % |
(1)Implied cost basis of TBAs represents the forward price to be paid for the underlying Agency MBS.
(2)Fair value of TBAs is the implied market value of the underlying Agency security as of the end of the period.
(3)TBAs are included on the consolidated balance sheet within “derivative assets/liabilities” at their net carrying value which is the difference between their implied market value and implied cost basis. Please refer to Note 5 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.
(4)TBAs are excluded from this calculation as they do not have a defined weighted-average loan balance or age until mortgages have been assigned to the pool.
(5)Constant prepayment rate (“CPR”) represents the 3-month CPR of Agency RMBS held as of date indicated.
(6)Duration measures the sensitivity of a security's price to the change in interest rates and represents the percent change in price of a security for a 100-basis point increase in interest rates. We calculate duration using third-party financial models and empirical data. Different models and methodologies can produce different estimates of duration for the same securities.
(7)Represents the weighted average market yield projected using cash flows generated from the forward curve based on market prices as of the date indicated and assuming zero volatility.
Agency CMBS, Agency CMBS IO, and non-Agency CMBS IO comprise 2.1% of our MBS portfolio as of December 31, 2024 is comprised of Agency CMBS, Agency CMBS IO, and non-Agency CMBS IO. Our Agency CMBS and Agency CMBS IO are backed by loans collateralized by multifamily properties, which have performed well for the last decade versus other sectors of the commercial real estate market. Our Agency CMBS IO are Class X1 from Freddie Mac Series K deals from which interest continues to be advanced even in the event of an underlying default up until liquidation. According to Freddie Mac, 99.8% of the loans in K-deals are current as of September 2024. Our non-Agency CMBS IO were all originated prior to 2018 with a weighted average remaining life of less than 2 years. The underlying loans for the non-Agency CMBS IO securities are collateralized by a number of different property types including: 27% retail, 40% office, 4% multifamily, 10% hotel and 19% all other real estate categories. In the current macroeconomic environment, we are not actively purchasing CMBS or CMBS IO as current risk versus reward remains unattractive relative to Agency RMBS. Our non-Agency CMBS IO investments are nearing maturity and have very little amortized cost remaining; any changes in actual payments may result in large swings in yield as shown below. Non-Agency CMBS IO do not comprise a material percentage of our portfolio and future income is not expected to have a material impact on our financial results.
The following table provides certain information regarding our CMBS and CMBS IO as of the dates indicated:
| December 31, 2024 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($s in thousands) | Amortized Cost | Fair Value | WAVG Life Remaining (1) | WAVG Market Yield (2) | ||||||||
| Agency CMBS | $ | 99,848 | $ | 95,463 | 2.6 | 4.76 | % | |||||
| Agency CMBS IO | 109,335 | 103,606 | 5.7 | 7.21 | % | |||||||
| Non-Agency CMBS IO | 8,256 | 10,780 | 1.3 | 26.42 | % | |||||||
| Total | $ | 217,439 | $ | 209,849 | ||||||||
| December 31, 2023 | ||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Amortized Cost | Fair Value | WAVG Life Remaining (1) | WAVG Market Yield (2) | ||||||||
| Agency CMBS | $ | 121,799 | $ | 115,595 | 4.1 | 4.74 | % | |||||
| Agency CMBS IO | 140,824 | 133,302 | 5.9 | 5.19 | % | |||||||
| Non-Agency CMBS IO | 26,490 | 26,416 | 1.1 | 13.32 | % | |||||||
| Total | $ | 289,113 | $ | 275,313 | ||||||||
| (1) Represents the weighted average life remaining in years based on contractual cash flows as of the dates indicated. | ||||||||||||
| (2) Represents the weighted average market yield projected using cash flows generated off the forward curve based on market prices as of the dates indicated and assuming zero volatility. |
Repurchase Agreements
Our repurchase agreement borrowings increased to $6.6 billion as of December 31, 2024 from $5.4 billion as of December 31, 2023 as we used these funds to partially finance our purchases of Agency RMBS during the year. We have not experienced any difficulty in securing financing with any of our counterparties, and our repurchase agreement counterparties have not indicated any concerns regarding leverage or credit. Please refer to Note 4 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within this Annual Report on Form 10-K as well as “Results of Operations” and “Liquidity and Capital Resources” contained within this Item 7 for additional information relating to our repurchase agreement borrowings.
Derivative Assets and Liabilities
During the year ended December 31, 2024, we shifted the majority of our interest rate hedges from U.S. Treasury futures to interest rate swaps. The table below discloses details on the Company's interest rate hedges held as of December 31, 2024, compared to hedging portfolio held as of December 31, 2023:
| Notional Amount Long (Short) | December 31, 2024 | December 31, 2023 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($s in thousands) | |||||||
| 30-year U.S. Treasury futures | $ | (516,500) | $ | (700,000) | |||
| 10-year U.S. Treasury futures | (735,000) | (4,180,000) | |||||
| 4-5 year interest rate swaps (pay-fixed rate of 3.42%) | (1,275,000) | — | |||||
| 6-7 year interest rate swaps (pay-fixed rate of 3.61%) | (3,085,000) | — | |||||
| 9-10 year interest rate swaps (pay-fixed rate of 3.83%) | (1,025,000) | — |
Please refer to Note 5 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for details on our interest rate hedging instruments as well as “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk” in Item 7A of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
Year Ended December 31, 2024 Compared to the Year Ended December 31, 2023
Net Interest Expense
Net interest expense and net interest spread improved for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to the year ended December 31, 2023. Though our average cost of financing remained higher than our effective yield for 2024, our net interest income turned positive as our purchases of higher-yielding assets increased our interest income relative to 2023, while the rate cuts implemented by the FOMC during the year helped to lower our interest expense. As market expectations of a rate reduction increased, we shortened our borrowing terms with our counterparties so we would be in a better position to rollover our borrowings as quickly as possible to take advantage of lower financing rates.
The following table presents information about our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities and their performance for the periods indicated:
| Year Ended | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Interest Income/Expense | Average Balance (1)(2) | Effective Yield/Financing Cost (3)(4) | Interest Income/Expense | Average Balance (1)(2) | Effective Yield/Financing Cost (3)(4) | |||||||||||||||
| Agency RMBS | $ | 289,781 | $ | 6,477,575 | 4.47 | % | $ | 177,695 | $ | 4,621,304 | 3.85 | % | |||||||||
| Agency CMBS | 3,247 | 106,641 | 3.00 | % | 3,713 | 124,157 | 2.96 | % | |||||||||||||
| CMBS IO (5) | 11,029 | 140,353 | 7.86 | % | 9,666 | 202,261 | 4.78 | % | |||||||||||||
| Non-Agency MBS and other investments | 78 | 1,396 | 5.04 | % | 128 | 2,377 | 5.28 | % | |||||||||||||
| MBS and loans | $ | 304,135 | $ | 6,725,965 | 4.52 | % | $ | 191,202 | $ | 4,950,099 | 3.86 | % | |||||||||
| Cash equivalents | 15,399 | 16,315 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Total interest income | $ | 319,534 | $ | 207,517 | |||||||||||||||||
| Repurchase agreement financing | (313,657) | 5,790,037 | (5.33) | % | (215,448) | 4,034,561 | (5.27) | % | |||||||||||||
| Net interest income (expense)/net interest spread | $ | 5,877 | (0.81) | % | $ | (7,931) | (1.41) | % | |||||||||||||
| Net periodic interest | 16,105 | 0.28 | % | — | — | % | |||||||||||||||
| Economic net interest income (expense)/spread (6) | $ | 21,982 | (0.53) | % | $ | (7,931) | (1.41) | % |
(1)Average balance for assets is calculated as a simple average of the daily amortized cost and excludes securities pending settlement if applicable.
(2)Average balance for liabilities is calculated as a simple average of the daily borrowings outstanding during the period.
(3)Effective yield is calculated by dividing interest income by the average balance of asset type outstanding during the reporting period. Unscheduled adjustments to premium/discount amortization/accretion, such as for prepayment compensation, are not annualized in this calculation.
(4)Financing cost is calculated by dividing annualized interest expense by the total average balance of borrowings outstanding during the period with an assumption of 360 days in a year.
(5)Includes Agency and non-Agency issued securities.
(6)Represents a non-GAAP measure. Please refer to the section below “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for a reconciliation of economic net interest income/spread to GAAP measures.
Gains (Losses) on Investments and Derivative Instruments
The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose as high as 4.71%, ending 2024 at 4.57%, an increase of approximately 69 basis points since the year began. Throughout the year, we frequently adjusted the volume and type of derivative instruments used to hedge the volatile interest rate environment. As a result, net gains from our interest rate hedging portfolio exceeded the net loss in fair value of our investments by $130.5 million, which also declined in fair value due to wider credit spreads as of December 31, 2024 versus December 31, 2023.
During the year ended December 31, 2023, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate ranged from a low of 3.31% in April 2023 to a high of 4.99% in October 2023, yet ended the year where it started at 3.88%. Credit spreads, which were wider for most of 2023, also tightened during the fourth quarter of 2023. We purchased $3.6 billion of Agency RMBS throughout the year when credit spreads were wider relative to December 31, 2023. As a result, the fair value of our investment portfolio, including TBAs, increased a net $68.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2023. These gains were partially offset by net losses on our interest rate hedges of $(10.8) million for the year ended December 31, 2023.
The following tables provide details on realized and unrealized gains and losses within our investment and interest rate hedging portfolios for the periods indicated:
| Year Ended | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2024 | |||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Realized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in OCI | Total Change in Fair Value | |||||||||||
| Investment portfolio: | |||||||||||||||
| Agency RMBS | $ | — | $ | (144,139) | $ | (18,642) | $ | (162,781) | |||||||
| Agency CMBS | (1,506) | 1,073 | 747 | 314 | |||||||||||
| CMBS IO | — | 531 | 3,861 | 4,392 | |||||||||||
| Other non-Agency and loans | — | 183 | 47 | 230 | |||||||||||
| Subtotal | (1,506) | (142,352) | (13,987) | (157,845) | |||||||||||
| TBA securities (1) | 38,530 | (77,042) | — | (38,512) | |||||||||||
| Net gain (loss) on investments | $ | 37,024 | $ | (219,394) | $ | (13,987) | $ | (196,357) | |||||||
| Interest rate hedging portfolio: | |||||||||||||||
| U.S. Treasury futures | $ | (46,955) | $ | 221,063 | $ | — | $ | 174,108 | |||||||
| Interest rate swaps (2) | 16,105 | 136,676 | — | 152,781 | |||||||||||
| Net (loss) gain on interest rate hedges | $ | (30,850) | $ | 357,739 | $ | — | $ | 326,889 | |||||||
| Total net gain (loss) | $ | 6,174 | $ | 138,345 | $ | (13,987) | $ | 130,532 |
| Year Ended | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2023 | |||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Realized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in OCI | Total Change in Fair Value | |||||||||||
| Investment portfolio: | |||||||||||||||
| Agency RMBS | $ | (74,916) | $ | 141,263 | $ | 16,343 | $ | 82,690 | |||||||
| Agency CMBS | — | 96 | 1,342 | 1,438 | |||||||||||
| CMBS IO | — | 1,111 | 5,148 | 6,259 | |||||||||||
| Other non-Agency and loans | — | 31 | 10 | 41 | |||||||||||
| Subtotal | (74,916) | 142,501 | 22,843 | 90,428 | |||||||||||
| TBA securities (1) | (97,777) | 75,713 | — | (22,064) | |||||||||||
| Net (loss) gain on investments | $ | (172,693) | $ | 218,214 | $ | 22,843 | $ | 68,364 | |||||||
| Interest rate hedging portfolio: | |||||||||||||||
| U.S. Treasury futures | $ | 234,015 | $ | (246,445) | $ | — | $ | (12,430) | |||||||
| Put options on U.S. Treasury futures | 3,645 | (2,056) | — | 1,589 | |||||||||||
| Net gain (loss) on interest rate hedges | $ | 237,660 | $ | (248,501) | $ | — | $ | (10,841) | |||||||
| Total net gain (loss) | $ | 64,967 | $ | (30,287) | $ | 22,843 | $ | 57,523 |
1)Realized and unrealized gains (losses) on TBA securities are recorded within “gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net” on the Company’s consolidated statements of comprehensive income.
2)Realized gain (loss) for interest rate swaps consists of net periodic interest benefit of $16.1 million for the year ended December 31, 2024. We did not have any interest rate swap agreements mature or terminate during the year ended December 31, 2024.
Operating Expenses
Operating expenses for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased $3.6 million compared to the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily due to accelerated recognition of share-based compensation expense for certain stock incentive awards granted in March 2024 to a retirement eligible employee. In addition, our salary and bonus expenses increased by $1.0 million due to an increase in average headcount as well as salary increases and other performance-based incentives.
Year Ended December 31, 2023 Compared to the Year Ended December 31, 2022
Please refer to “Results of Operations” within Item 7 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 for a discussion of the results of operations for the year ended December 31, 2023 compared to the year ended December 31, 2022, which is incorporated herein by reference.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
In evaluating the Company’s financial and operating performance, management considers book value per common share, total economic return (loss) to common shareholders, and other operating results presented in accordance with GAAP as well as certain non-GAAP financial measures, which include earnings available for distribution (“EAD”) to common shareholders (including per common share) and economic net interest income and the related metric economic net interest spread. Management believes these non-GAAP financial measures may be useful to investors because they are viewed by management as a measure of the investment portfolio’s return based on the effective yield of its investments, net of financing costs and, with respect to EAD, net of other normal recurring operating income/expenses.
Drop income generated by TBA dollar roll positions, which is included in "gain (loss) on derivatives instruments, net" on the Company's consolidated statements of comprehensive income, is included in EAD because management views drop income as the economic equivalent of net interest income (interest income less implied financing cost) on the underlying Agency security from trade date to settlement date. However, drop income/loss does not represent the total realized gain/loss from the Company’s investments in TBA securities.
Management also includes net periodic interest from its interest rate swaps, which is included in "gain (loss) on derivatives instruments, net," in EAD and economic net interest income because interest rate swaps are used by the Company to economically hedge the impact of changing interest rates on its borrowing costs from repurchase agreements, and including net periodic interest from interest rate swaps is a helpful indicator of the Company’s total financing cost in addition to GAAP interest expense.
Non-GAAP financial measures are not a substitute for GAAP earnings and may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other REITs because they may not be calculated in the same manner. Furthermore, though EAD is one of several factors our management considers in determining the appropriate level of distributions to common shareholders, it should not be utilized in isolation, and it is not an accurate indication of the Company’s REIT taxable income, its distribution requirements in accordance with the Tax Code or total economic return.
Reconciliations of each non-GAAP measure to certain GAAP financial measures are provided below.
| Year Ended | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reconciliations of GAAP to Non-GAAP Financial Measures: | December 31, 2024 | December 31, 2023 | |||||
| ($s in thousands except per share data) | |||||||
| Comprehensive income to common shareholders (GAAP) | $ | 92,217 | $ | 9,020 | |||
| Less: | |||||||
| Change in fair value of investments (1) | 157,845 | (90,429) | |||||
| Change in fair value of derivative instruments, net (2) | (274,966) | 28,808 | |||||
| EAD to common shareholders (non-GAAP) | $ | (24,904) | $ | (52,601) | |||
| Average common shares outstanding | 70,766,410 | 54,809,462 | |||||
| EAD per common share (non-GAAP) | $ | (0.35) | $ | (0.96) | |||
| Net interest income (loss) (GAAP) | $ | 5,877 | $ | (7,931) | |||
| Net periodic interest from interest rate swaps | 16,105 | — | |||||
| Economic net interest income (expense) (non-GAAP) | 21,982 | (7,931) | |||||
| TBA drop loss (3) | (2,694) | (4,097) | |||||
| Total operating expenses | (36,498) | (32,879) | |||||
| Preferred stock dividends | (7,694) | (7,694) | |||||
| EAD to common shareholders (non-GAAP) | $ | (24,904) | $ | (52,601) | |||
| Net interest spread (GAAP) | (0.81) | % | (1.41) | % | |||
| Net periodic interest as a percentage of average repurchase borrowings | 0.28 | % | — | % | |||
| Economic net interest spread (non-GAAP) | (0.53) | % | (1.41) | % |
(1)Amount includes realized and unrealized gains and losses due to changes in the fair value of the Company’s MBS.
(2)The following table reconciles “change in fair value of derivative instruments, net” to the “gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net” shown on the consolidated statements of comprehensive income.
| Year Ended | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($s in thousands) | December 31, 2024 | December 31, 2023 | |||||
| Gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net | $ | 288,377 | $ | (32,905) | |||
| Less: | |||||||
| TBA drop loss | 2,694 | 4,097 | |||||
| Net periodic interest from interest rate swaps | (16,105) | — | |||||
| Change in fair value of derivative instruments, net | $ | 274,966 | $ | (28,808) |
(3)TBA drop income (loss) is calculated by multiplying the notional amount of the TBA dollar roll positions by the difference in price between two TBA securities with the same terms but different settlement dates.
30
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Our primary sources of liquidity include borrowings under repurchase arrangements and monthly principal and interest payments we receive on our investments. Additional sources may include proceeds from the sale of investments, equity offerings, and net payments received from counterparties for derivative instruments. We use our liquidity to purchase investments, to pay amounts due on our repurchase agreement borrowings, and to pay our operating expenses and dividends on our common and preferred stock. We also use our liquidity to meet margin requirements for our repurchase agreements and derivative transactions, including TBA contracts, under the terms of the related agreements. We may also periodically use liquidity to repurchase shares of the Company’s stock.
During the year ended December 31, 2024, we issued 10,500,000 shares of common stock through a public offering, resulting in proceeds of $124.5 million, net of issuance costs. We also issued 16,756,835 shares of common stock through our ATM program, resulting in proceeds of $207.6 million, net of broker commissions and fees. We deployed these proceeds into purchases of higher coupon Agency RMBS and to cover increased initial margin requirements related to our interest rate swaps.
Our liquidity fluctuates based on our investment activities, leverage, capital raising activities, and changes in the fair value of our investments and derivative instruments. Our measurement of liquidity includes unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and unencumbered Agency MBS, which are recognized as assets on our consolidated balance sheet. In our measure of liquidity, we also include the fair value of noncash collateral pledged to us by our counterparties, which we typically receive when the fair value of our pledged collateral exceeds our current margin requirement. Our liquidity as of December 31, 2024, was $658.3 million, which consisted of unrestricted cash of $377.1 million and unencumbered Agency MBS with a fair value of $281.2 million. Our liquidity as of December 31, 2023, was $453.6 million.
We continuously monitor our liquidity, especially with potential risk events on the horizon, such as uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policy decisions, the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, quantitative tightening or easing measures, the frequent potential for a government shutdown, and the impact on global markets stemming from global central bank policies. We are also monitoring the wars and conflicts around the globe. We continuously assess the adequacy of our liquidity under various scenarios based on changes in the fair value of our investments and derivative instruments due to market factors such as changes in the absolute level of interest rates and the shape of the yield curve, credit spreads, lender haircuts, and prepayment speeds, which in turn have an impact on derivative margin requirements. In performing these analyses, we will also consider the current state of the fixed-income markets and the repurchase agreement markets to determine if market forces such as supply-demand imbalances or structural changes to these markets could change the liquidity of MBS or the availability of financing. We have not experienced any material changes in the terms of our repurchase agreements with our counterparties, and they have not indicated to us any concerns regarding access to liquidity.
Our perception of the liquidity of our investments and market conditions significantly influences our targeted leverage. In general, our leverage will increase if we view the risk-reward opportunity of higher leverage on our capital outweighs the risk to our liquidity and book value. Our leverage, which we calculate using total liabilities plus the cost basis of TBA long positions, was 7.9 times shareholders’ equity as of December 31, 2024. We include 100% of the cost basis of our TBA securities in evaluating our leverage because it is possible under certain market conditions that it may be uneconomical for us to roll a TBA long position into future months, which may result in us having to take physical delivery of the underlying securities and use cash or other financing sources to fund our total purchase commitment.
Repurchase Agreements
Leverage based solely on repurchase agreement amounts outstanding was 5.5 times shareholders’ equity as of December 31, 2024. Our repurchase agreement borrowings are uncommitted with terms renewable at the discretion of our lenders and generally have original terms to maturity of overnight to six months, though in some instances, we may enter into longer-dated maturities depending on market conditions. We seek to maintain unused capacity under our existing repurchase agreement credit lines with multiple counterparties, which helps protect us in the event of a counterparty's failure to renew existing repurchase agreements. As part of our continuous evaluation of counterparty risk, we maintain our highest counterparty exposures with broker-dealer subsidiaries of regulated financial institutions or primary dealers.
The amount outstanding for our repurchase agreement borrowings will typically fluctuate in any given period as it is dependent upon several factors, but particularly the extent to which we are active in buying and selling securities, including the volume of activity in TBA dollar roll transactions versus buying specified pools. The following table presents information regarding the balances of our repurchase agreement borrowings as of and for the periods indicated:
| Repurchase Agreements | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($s in thousands) | Balance Outstanding As of Quarter End | Average Balance Outstanding For the Quarter Ended | Maximum Balance Outstanding During the Quarter Ended | |||||||
| December 31, 2024 | $ | 6,563,120 | $ | 6,431,743 | $ | 6,568,805 | ||||
| September 30, 2024 | 6,423,890 | 5,943,805 | 6,461,475 | |||||||
| June 30, 2024 | 5,494,428 | 5,410,282 | 5,529,856 | |||||||
| March 31, 2024 | 5,284,708 | 5,365,575 | 5,469,434 | |||||||
| December 31, 2023 | 5,381,104 | 5,168,821 | 5,381,354 | |||||||
| September 30, 2023 | 5,002,230 | 4,773,435 | 5,037,440 | |||||||
| June 30, 2023 | 4,201,901 | 3,447,406 | 4,203,788 | |||||||
| March 31, 2023 | 2,937,124 | 2,713,481 | 2,959,263 | |||||||
| December 31, 2022 | 2,644,405 | 2,727,274 | 3,072,483 | |||||||
| September 30, 2022 | 2,991,876 | 2,398,268 | 3,082,138 | |||||||
| June 30, 2022 | 2,202,648 | 2,486,217 | 2,949,918 | |||||||
| March 31, 2022 | 2,952,802 | 2,806,212 | 2,973,475 |
For our repurchase agreement borrowings, we are required to post and maintain margin to the lender (i.e., collateral in excess of the repurchase agreement borrowing) in order to support the amount of the financing. This excess collateral is often referred to as a “haircut” and is intended to provide the lender protection against fluctuations in the fair value of the collateral and/or the failure by us to repay the borrowing at maturity. Lenders have the right to change haircut requirements at maturity of the repurchase agreement and may change their haircuts based on market conditions and the perceived riskiness of the collateral pledged. If the fair value of the collateral falls below the amount required by the lender, the lender has the right to demand additional margin or collateral. These demands are referred to as “margin calls,” and if we fail to meet any margin call, our lenders have the right to terminate the repurchase agreement and sell any collateral pledged. The weighted average haircut for our borrowings as of December 31, 2024, was consistent with prior periods, typically averaging less than 5% for borrowings collateralized with Agency RMBS and CMBS and between 10-14% for borrowings collateralized with CMBS IO.
The collateral we post in excess of our repurchase agreement borrowing with any counterparty is also typically referred to by us as “equity at risk,” which represents the potential loss to the Company if the counterparty is unable or unwilling to return collateral securing the repurchase agreement borrowing at its maturity. The counterparties with whom we have the greatest amounts of equity at risk may vary significantly during any given period due to the short-term and uncommitted nature of the repurchase agreement borrowings. As of December 31, 2024, we had amounts outstanding under 27 different repurchase agreements and did not have more than 10% of equity at risk with any counterparty or group of related counterparties.
We have various financial and operating covenants in certain of our repurchase agreements, which we monitor and evaluate on an ongoing basis for compliance as well as for impacts these customary covenants may have on our operating and financing flexibility. We do not believe we are subject to any covenants that materially restrict our financing flexibility. We were in full compliance with our debt covenants as of December 31, 2024, and we are not aware of circumstances that could potentially result in our non-compliance in the near future.
Derivative Instruments
Derivative instruments we enter into may require us to post initial margin at inception and daily variation margin based on subsequent changes in their fair value. Daily variation margin requirements also entitle us to
receive collateral from our counterparties if the value of amounts owed to us under the derivative agreement exceeds the minimum margin requirement. The collateral posted as margin by us is typically in cash. As of December 31, 2024, we had cash collateral posted to our counterparties of $244.4 million under these agreements.
Collateral requirements for interest rate derivative instruments are typically governed by the central clearing exchange and the associated futures commission merchant, which may establish margin requirements in excess of the clearing exchange. Collateral requirements for our TBA contracts are governed by the Mortgage-Backed Securities Division ("MBSD") of the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation and, if applicable, by our third-party brokerage agreements, which may establish margin levels in excess of the MBSD. Our TBA contracts, which are subject to master securities forward transaction agreements published by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association as well as supplemental terms and conditions with each counterparty, generally provide that valuations for our TBA contracts and any pledged collateral are to be obtained from a generally recognized source agreed to by both parties. However, in certain circumstances, our counterparties have the sole discretion to determine the value of the TBA contract and any pledged collateral. In such instances, our counterparties are required to act in good faith in making determinations of value. In the event of a margin call, we must generally provide additional collateral on the same business day.
The following table provides details on the “net receipts (payments) on derivative instruments” shown on our consolidated statements of cash flows for the periods indicated:
| Year Ended | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, | |||||||||||
| Cash received (paid) by instrument: | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | |||||||||||
| Interest rate swaps: | |||||||||||
| Net variation margin received | $ | 146,379 | $ | — | $ | — | |||||
| Net periodic interest (1) | — | — | — | ||||||||
| 146,379 | — | — | |||||||||
| U.S. Treasury futures, including put options:(2) | |||||||||||
| Net variation margin received | 218,399 | (214,622) | 46,460 | ||||||||
| (Paid) received upon maturity/termination | (46,955) | 214,904 | 662,549 | ||||||||
| 171,444 | 282 | 709,009 | |||||||||
| TBA securities: | |||||||||||
| Received (paid) upon settlement | 45,106 | (96,250) | (306,369) | ||||||||
| Interest rate swaptions: | |||||||||||
| Received upon maturity/termination | — | — | 50,940 | ||||||||
| — | — | 50,940 | |||||||||
| Net receipts (payments) on derivative instruments | $ | 362,929 | $ | (95,968) | $ | 453,580 |
(1)Net periodic interest from our effective interest rate swaps are recognized as income or expense during the period earned (incurred), but the cash is not received or paid until the anniversary of each agreement’s effective date or upon maturity.
(2)The Company did not use put options on U.S. Treasury futures during the year ended December 31, 2024.
Dividends
We set our dividend based on many factors, including our view on long-term returns, yield on comparable investments, liquidity and market risk, and levels of taxable income. Among these factors, we focus on economic returns and taxable income within the context of the distribution requirements. As a REIT, we are required to distribute to our shareholders amounts equal to at least 90% of our REIT taxable income for each taxable year after certain deductions, including the separate dividend requirements of the Series C Preferred Stock.
We designate certain derivative instruments as interest rate hedges for tax purposes. Realized gains (losses) resulting from the difference in fair value and the amount of cash received or paid upon termination or maturity of derivative instruments are included in GAAP earnings in the same reporting period in which the derivative instrument matures or is terminated by the Company but are generally not recognized in REIT taxable income until future periods. Our remaining net deferred tax hedge gain was estimated to be $719.0 million as of December 31, 2024, which will be amortized into REIT taxable income over several years. As of December 31, 2024, we also had $557.9 million in capital loss carryforwards, all of which will expire by either December 31, 2027 or by December 31, 2028. Due to these amounts and other temporary and permanent differences between GAAP net income and REIT taxable income, coupled with the degree of uncertainty about the trajectory of interest rates, we cannot reasonably estimate how much the deferred tax hedge gains to be recognized will impact our dividend declarations during 2025 or in any given year.
We generally fund dividend distributions through portfolio cash flows. If we make dividend distributions in excess of our portfolio cash flows during the period, whether for purposes of meeting our REIT distribution requirements or other reasons, those distributions are generally funded either through our existing cash balances or through the return of principal from our investments (either through repayment or sale). Please refer to "Operating and Regulatory Structure" within Part I, Item 1, "Business," as well as Part I, Item 1A, “Risk Factors” of this Form 10-K for additional important information regarding dividends declared on our taxable income.
RECENT ACCOUNTING PRONOUNCEMENTS
Please refer to Note 1 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
The discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations are based in large part upon our consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. The preparation of our consolidated financial statements requires management to make estimates, judgments and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues, and expenses and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities. We base these estimates and judgments on historical experience and assumptions believed to be reasonable under current facts and circumstances. Actual results, however, may differ significantly from the estimated amounts we have recorded.
The following discussion provides information on our critical accounting policies, which require management's most difficult, subjective, or complex judgments, and may result in materially different results under different assumptions and conditions. Please also refer to Note 1 of our Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements included within Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information related to significant accounting policies.
Fair Value Measurements. The fair value of our Agency MBS, as well as a majority of our non-Agency MBS, is based on estimated prices provided by third-party pricing services who have access to observable market information through trading desks and various information services. Most of our MBS are substantially similar to securities actively traded and observable in the market. To determine each security's valuation, the pricing service uses either a market approach or income approach, which rely on observable market data. The market approach uses prices and other relevant information that is generated by market transactions of identical or similar securities, while the income approach uses valuation techniques to convert estimated future cash flows to a discounted present value. Examples of these observable inputs and assumptions used in the valuation techniques include market interest rates, credit spreads, cash flows, and projected prepayment speeds, among other factors. Management reviews the prices it receives from the pricing service for reasonableness using broker quotes as well as other third-party pricing services.
In addition, management reviews the prices received for each security by comparing those prices to a second pricing source. If the price of a security is obtained from quoted prices for similar instruments or model-derived valuations whose inputs are observable, the security is classified as a level 2 security. The security is classified as a level 3 security if the inputs are unobservable, resulting in an estimate of fair value based primarily on management's judgment. Although it is rare, we may exclude a price received from a third party if we determine, based on our knowledge and expertise of the market, that the price received is significantly different from other
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observable market data. Please refer to Note 6 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information on fair value measurements.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Certain written statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K that are not historical facts constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). Statements in this report addressing expectations, assumptions, beliefs, projections, future plans and strategies, future events, developments that we expect or anticipate will occur in the future, and future operating results, capital management, and dividend policy are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based upon management’s beliefs, assumptions, and expectations as of the date of this report regarding future events and operating performance, considering all information currently available to us, and are applicable only as of the date of this report. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of words such as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “plan,” “may,” “will,” “intend,” “should,” “could,” or similar expressions. We caution readers not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, which are not historical facts and may be based on projections, assumptions, expectations, and anticipated events that do not materialize. Except as required by law, we are not obligated to, and do not intend to, update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
Forward-looking statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K may include, but are not limited to, statements about:
•Our business and investment strategy, including our ability to generate acceptable risk-adjusted returns, our target investment allocations, and our views on the future performance of MBS and other investments;
•Our views on the macroeconomic environment, monetary and fiscal policy, and conditions in the investment, credit, interest rate, and derivatives markets;
•Our views on inflation, market interest rates, and market spreads;
•Our views on the effect of actual or proposed actions of the Federal Reserve or other central banks with respect to monetary policy (including the targeted Fed Funds rate), and the potential impact of these actions on interest rates, borrowing costs, inflation, or unemployment;
•The effect of regulatory initiatives of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, other financial regulators, and other central banks;
•Our financing strategy, including our target leverage ratios, our use of TBA dollar roll transactions, and anticipated trends in financing costs, including TBA dollar roll transaction costs, and our hedging strategy, including changes to the derivative instruments to which we are a party, and changes to government regulation of hedging instruments and our use of these instruments;
•Our investment portfolio composition and target investments;
•Our investment portfolio performance, including the fair value, yields, and forecasted prepayment speeds of our investments;
•Our liquidity and ability to access financing and the anticipated availability and cost of financing;
•Our capital stock activity, including the impact of stock issuances and repurchases;
•The amount, timing, and funding of future dividends;
•Our use of our tax NOL carryforward and other tax loss carryforwards;
•Future competition for and availability of investments, financing, and capital;
•Estimates of future interest expenses, including related to the Company’s repurchase agreements and derivative instruments;
•The status and effect of legislative reforms and regulatory rule-making or review processes, and the status of reform efforts and other business developments in the repurchase agreement financing market;
•Market, industry, and economic trends, and how these trends and related economic data may impact the behavior of market participants and financial regulators;
•The impact of recent bank failures, potential new regulations, and the potential for other bank failures this year;
•The impact of debt ceiling negotiations on interest rates, spreads, the U.S. Treasury market and the impact more broadly on fixed income and equity markets:
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•Uncertainties regarding the war between Russia and Ukraine or Israel and Hamas and the related impacts on macroeconomic conditions, including, among other things, interest rates;
•The financial position and creditworthiness of the depository institutions in which the Company’s MBS and cash deposits are held;
•The impact of applicable tax and accounting requirements on us, including our tax treatment of derivative instruments such as TBAs, interest rate swaps, options, and futures;
•Our future compliance with covenants in our master repurchase agreements, ISDA agreements, and debt covenants in our other contractual agreements;
•Our reliance on a single service provider for our trading, portfolio management, and risk reporting systems;
•The implementation in a timely and cost-effective manner of our operating platform, which includes trading, portfolio management, risk reporting, and accounting services systems, and the anticipated benefits thereof; and
•Possible future effects of any global health crisis.
Forward-looking statements are inherently subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from historical results or from any results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Not all these risks and other factors are known to us. New risks and uncertainties arise over time, and it is not possible to predict those events or how they may affect us. The projections, assumptions, expectations, or beliefs upon which the forward-looking statements are based can also change as a result of these risks or other factors. If such a risk or other factor materializes in future periods, our business, financial condition, liquidity, and results of operations may vary materially from those expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements.
While it is not possible to identify all factors that may cause actual results to differ from historical results or any results expressed or implied by forward-looking statements or that may cause our projections, assumptions, expectations, or beliefs to change, some of those factors include the following:
•the risks and uncertainties referenced in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, especially those incorporated by reference into Part I, Item 1A, “Risk Factors,”
•our ability to find suitable reinvestment opportunities;
•changes in domestic economic conditions;
•geopolitical events, such as terrorism, war, or other military conflict, including increased uncertainty regarding the wars between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas, and the related impact on macroeconomic conditions as a result of such conflict;
•changes in interest rates and credit spreads, including the repricing of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities;
•our investment portfolio performance, particularly as it relates to cash flow, prepayment rates, and credit performance;
•the impact on markets and asset prices from changes in the Federal Reserve’s policies regarding the purchases of Agency RMBS, Agency CMBS, and U.S. Treasuries;
•actual or anticipated changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy or the monetary policy of other central banks;
•adverse reactions in U.S. financial markets related to actions of foreign central banks or the economic performance of foreign economies, including in particular China, Japan, the European Union, and the United Kingdom;
•uncertainty concerning the long-term fiscal health and stability of the United States;
•the cost and availability of financing, including the future availability of financing due to changes to regulation of, and capital requirements imposed upon, financial institutions;
•the cost and availability of new equity capital;
•changes in our leverage and use of leverage;
•changes to our investment strategy, operating policies, dividend policy, or asset allocations;
•the quality of performance of third-party service providers, including our sole third-party service provider for our critical operations and trade functions;
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•the loss or unavailability of our third-party service provider’s service and technology that supports critical functions of our business related to our trading and borrowing activities due to outages, interruptions, or other failures;
•the level of defaults by borrowers on loans underlying MBS;
•changes in our industry;
•increased competition;
•changes in government regulations affecting our business;
•changes or volatility in the repurchase agreement financing markets and other credit markets;
•changes to the market for derivative instruments, including changes to margin requirements on derivative instruments;
•uncertainty regarding continued government support of the U.S. financial system and U.S. housing and real estate markets, or to reform the U.S. housing finance system, including the resolution of the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac;
•the composition of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve;
•the political environment in the U.S.;
•systems failures or cybersecurity incidents; and
•exposure to current and future claims and litigation.
FY 2023 10-K MD&A
SEC filing source: 0000826675-24-000011.
ITEM 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with our financial statements and the related notes included in Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data” in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of various factors including, but not limited to, those disclosed in Item 1A, “Risk Factors” elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K and in other documents filed with the SEC and otherwise publicly disclosed. Please refer to “Forward-Looking Statements” contained within this Item 7 for additional information. This discussion also contains non-GAAP financial measures, which are discussed in the section “Non-GAAP Financial Measures.”
For a complete description of our business including our operating policies, investment philosophy and strategy, financing and hedging strategies, and other important information, please refer to Item 1 of Part I of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW
The focus in early 2023 was the rate of inflation and whether the increases in the Federal Funds Target Rate (“Fed Funds rate”), which started in 2022, would be sufficient to tamp down inflation or if more increases would be needed in 2023. The Federal Reserve continued its path of rate increases in early 2023, prompting interest rates across the yield curve to rise. In early March, the U.S. market experienced a regional bank crisis driven by the combination of unhedged low coupon securities and downgrades which spurred large scale and rapid movement of customer deposits. Given the severe liquidity issues caused by the loss of deposits, several institutions either failed and were seized or were taken over by larger more solvent institutions. Interest rates temporarily fell post regional bank crisis before refocusing on inflation and rising throughout most of the year as the Federal Reserve signaled the need for higher interest rates and messaged a need for “higher for longer” U.S. Federal Reserve policy. In the fourth quarter of 2023, many economic forecasts for 2024 predicted rate cuts, and as a result, interest rates fell going into year end. Despite a very volatile 2023 that experienced over a 170 basis point change in the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate from peak to trough, the rate closed out 2023 virtually unchanged from the end of 2022.
Global unrest continues in many parts of the world. The Russia and Ukraine war is ongoing and the attack on Israel by Hamas has created unrest in that region. The economic benefit of the reopening of China post Covid-19
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restrictions did not materialize in 2023, and many are looking to the region to determine what steps China may take to stimulate its economy and work with trade partners on a global basis.
Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning created much enthusiasm for investors and entrepreneurs looking to leverage and seize the opportunity. This was tempered by regulators who fear unintended consequences and ethical dilemmas based on incorrect results and data bias. The debates over these issues will continue into the future.
Market Data
The charts below show the range of U.S. Treasury rates for the past twelve months and information regarding market spreads as of and for the periods indicated:
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| Market Spreads as of: | Change in Spreads YTD | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment Type: | December 31, 2023 | September 30, 2023 | June 30, 2023 | March 31, 2023 | December 31, 2022 | |||||||
| Agency RMBS: (1) | ||||||||||||
| 2.0% coupon | 76 | 84 | 67 | 79 | 62 | 14 | ||||||
| 2.5% coupon | 78 | 88 | 72 | 79 | 68 | 10 | ||||||
| 3.0% coupon | 79 | 88 | 74 | 78 | 70 | 9 | ||||||
| 3.5% coupon | 75 | 87 | 73 | 75 | 72 | 3 | ||||||
| 4.0% coupon | 74 | 87 | 73 | 74 | 62 | 12 | ||||||
| 4.5% coupon | 73 | 84 | 71 | 79 | 60 | 13 | ||||||
| 5.0% coupon | 69 | 86 | 75 | 70 | 53 | 16 | ||||||
| 5.5% coupon | 66 | 87 | 76 | 68 | 50 | 16 | ||||||
| 6.0% coupon | 60 | 87 | 74 | 60 | 57 | 3 | ||||||
| Agency DUS (Agency CMBS)(2) | 76 | 80 | 72 | 78 | 74 | 2 | ||||||
| Freddie K AAA IO (Agency CMBS IO)(2) | 180 | 185 | 175 | 210 | 235 | (55) | ||||||
| AAA CMBS IO (Non-Agency CMBS IO)(2) | 225 | 275 | 301 | 350 | 315 | (90) |
(1)Option adjusted spreads (“OAS”) are based on Company estimates using third-party models and market data. OAS shown for prior periods may differ from previous disclosures because.the Company regularly updates the third-party model used.
(2)Data represents the spread to swap rate on newly issued securities and is sourced from J.P. Morgan.
Summary of Results
The following table provides details about the changes in our financial position during the year ended December 31, 2023:
| Net Change in Fair Value | Components of Comprehensive Income | Common Book Value Rollforward | Per Common Share | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance as of December 31, 2022 (1) | $ | 789,828 | $ | 14.73 | ||||||
| Net interest expense | $ | (7,931) | ||||||||
| G & A and other operating expenses | (32,879) | |||||||||
| Preferred stock dividends | (7,694) | |||||||||
| Changes in fair value: | ||||||||||
| MBS and loans | $ | 90,429 | ||||||||
| TBAs | (22,063) | |||||||||
| U.S. Treasury futures | (12,430) | |||||||||
| Put options on U.S. Treasury futures | 1,588 | |||||||||
| Total net change in fair value | 57,524 | |||||||||
| Comprehensive income to common shareholders | 9,020 | 0.16 | ||||||||
| Capital transactions: | ||||||||||
| Net proceeds from stock issuance (2) | 46,951 | (0.02) | ||||||||
| Common dividends declared | (86,564) | (1.56) | ||||||||
| Balance as of December 31, 2023 (1) | $ | 759,235 | $ | 13.31 |
(1)Amounts represent total shareholders' equity less the aggregate liquidation preference of the Company's
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preferred stock, in thousands and on a per common share basis.
(2)Net proceeds from stock issuance include $42.6 million from common stock ATM program and $4.3 million from share-based compensation grants, net of amortization. The amount shown for “per common share” includes the impact of the increase in the number of common shares outstanding.
In all market environments, we seek to pay a consistent dividend and preserve book value for our shareholders. This year, we remained focused on minimizing the impact of volatile interest rates and spreads by actively managing leverage and liquidity. To minimize the loss in fair value of our investments from higher interest rates, we continuously monitored and adjusted our hedge position throughout the year as macroeconomic views and market factors changed. Spread tightening experienced late in the fourth quarter of 2023 favorably impacted the fair value of our investment portfolio because we purchased $3.6 billion in Agency RMBS during 2023 when spreads were wider relative to December 31, 2023. As a result, the net gains on our investment portfolio for the year ended December 31, 2023 exceeded net losses on our interest rate hedges. Comprehensive income to common shareholders for the year ended December 31, 2023 was $9.0 million, or $0.16 per common share. Total economic return to our common shareholders of $0.14 per common share, or 1.0% of beginning book value, consisted of a decline in book value of $(1.42) offset by dividends declared of $1.56.
Realized gains and losses on interest rate hedges are recognized in GAAP net income (loss) in the same reporting period in which the derivative instrument matures or is terminated, but are not included in our earnings available for distribution ("EAD"), a non-GAAP measure, during any reporting period. On a tax basis, realized gains and losses on derivative instruments designated for tax purposes as interest rate hedges are amortized into our REIT taxable income over the original periods hedged by those derivatives. Our estimated REIT taxable income for the year ended December 31, 2023 includes an estimated benefit of approximately $80.5 million, or $1.47 per average common share outstanding, from the amortization of accumulated deferred tax hedge gains, which were estimated to be $861.8 million as of December 31, 2023 compared to $695.2 million as of December 31, 2022. This benefit will be distributable to common shareholders as part of our taxable ordinary income in future periods. Additional information regarding the estimated impact of deferred tax hedge amortization on our estimated REIT taxable income is discussed in “Liquidity and Capital Resources” within this Item 7.
Current Outlook
Global growth expectations are muted as we enter 2024. Chinese officials appear likely to increase fiscal and monetary policy in early 2024, as the consensus forecast for GDP growth is below the pre-pandemic trend. From South Korea to Australia, economies in the region are trending for sub-trend growth. Inflation pressures in Asia remain more muted than in the rest of the world, and we believe European growth will continue to slow. Inflation in most of the Eurozone is trending lower, and most forecasts suggest price pressures will continue to ease throughout 2024.
U.S. growth expectations are subdued, with the median of Federal Reserve officials’ expectations for 2024 real GDP growth at just 1.4%. Except for the economic downturn in 2020 during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, 1.4% would be the slowest pace of real GDP growth since the Global Financial Crisis in 2009. As we started 2024, market expectations for inflation were in the range of 2.0-2.5%. That said, growth and inflation are running higher than those forecasted in late 2023, which suggests that GDP growth could be higher than the Federal Reserve officials’ expectations for 2024.
Financial conditions eased dramatically in late 2023 and that has continued in the first few weeks of 2024. Futures markets are expecting easier monetary policy in 2024 and even into 2025, with as much as 150 basis points of Fed Funds rate cuts. This could be seen largely as an adjustment. The real level of the Fed Funds policy rate is historically high. Even considering a modest upside risk to consensus inflation forecasts, the Federal Reserve’s target appears to have room to adjust rates lower. However, the extent and timing of the cuts remain debatable. Growth and inflation could surprise to the upside in the first half of 2024, allowing the Federal Reserve to act less than markets suggested. Moreover, the presidential election in November could be a factor with the Federal Reserve not wanting to be seen as politically motivated.
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Early in 2024, certain representatives of the Federal Reserve suggested they could consider reducing their quantitative tightening measures, a term used for the plan to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet. If the steady pace of declines in the Federal Reserve’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries and Agency MBS slows or even stops, the availability of U.S. dollar liquidity and financial conditions could improve.
Overall, yields on fixed-income spread products tightened relative to U.S. Treasuries in December 2023 as investors tried to get ahead of the January tightening typically experienced in prior years. Investors may expect lower interest-rate volatility amid less monetary tightening and possibly even easing in 2024. That would likely offer a tailwind for risky assets, especially Agency MBS, which repriced significantly in the previous two years on the expectation of declining Federal Reserve holdings. Corporate bond yields remain tighter relative to MBS, suggesting MBS could retain a bid even if corporate bonds were finally repriced for the risk of higher credit losses in a recession scenario.
Historically, yield curves have steepened as the Federal Reserve starts to ease policy. Trend models started to suggest a new steepening trend in late 2023 and early 2024. A steeper yield curve has usually proven positive for mortgages. Moreover, investors owning leveraged MBS positions could benefit from hedging in longer maturity U.S. Treasuries as the curve steepens.
Risks to the outlook remain high as we enter 2024. The ongoing war in Ukraine and the war between Hamas and the state of Israel highlight the risk of human conflict. The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence technologies has introduced multi-layered risks for 2024. Capital investment could boost developed world economies, while security risks could overwhelm emerging economies and even developed ones. Fiscal imbalances, especially in those critical to the global financial system like the U.S., will likely continue to grow in 2024. These risks remain top of mind for 2024.
Despite these risks, our outlook for 2024 is a positive one. We expect monetary policy to be less restrictive this year with lower interest rate volatility. Yield spreads relative to U.S. Treasuries should remain wider than when the Federal Reserve was more active in its purchases of MBS. Still, the spreads of MBS offer attractive leveraged returns for long-term holders. Moreover, we expect tactical opportunities to increase amid moderate spread volatility in 2024. We will likely have opportunities to actively manage our coupon exposure as markets re-price for the new liquidity environment. Finally, we see the potential for opportunities to re-introduce compelling yield opportunities in CMBS and other segments of the RMBS market.
FINANCIAL CONDITION
Investment Portfolio
Our investment portfolio (including TBAs) as of December 31, 2023 increased 27% compared to December 31, 2022. The increase during the year ended December 31, 2023 was due to our strategy of deploying capital during periods of wider spreads into higher coupon Agency RMBS with higher forward returns relative to the investments held as of December 31, 2022. We purchased Agency RMBS with a cost basis of $3.6 billion during the year ended December 31, 2023.
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The following charts compare the composition of our MBS portfolio including TBA securities as of the dates indicated:
We frequently change the coupon distribution in our Agency RMBS and TBA portfolios in order to minimize losses due to spread volatility. We expect spreads will remain volatile and range-bound in the intermediate term while the Federal Reserve continues reducing MBS from its balance sheet. Longer term, as investors return to the MBS market and demand improves, we expect the fair value of our investment portfolio to increase and our book value to trend higher.
The following tables compare our fixed-rate Agency RMBS investments, including TBA dollar roll positions, as of the dates indicated:
| December 31, 2023 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Par/Notional | Amortized Cost/Implied Cost Basis (1)(3) | Fair Value (2)(3) | Weighted Average | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Coupon | Loan Age(in months)(4) | 3 MonthCPR (4)(5) | Estimated Duration (6) | Market Yield (7) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 30-year fixed-rate: | ($s in thousands) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.0% | $ | 708,528 | $ | 720,611 | $ | 586,361 | 39 | 4.4 | % | 6.81 | 4.60 | % | |||||||||||
| 2.5% | 608,580 | 632,343 | 525,018 | 40 | 4.5 | % | 6.62 | 4.59 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 4.0% | 354,382 | 354,965 | 339,212 | 34 | 5.5 | % | 5.65 | 4.67 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 4.5% | 1,383,019 | 1,350,697 | 1,348,108 | 15 | 5.0 | % | 5.08 | 4.88 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 5.0% | 2,070,473 | 2,035,088 | 2,057,309 | 9 | 4.7 | % | 4.24 | 5.10 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 5.5% | 897,520 | 900,218 | 907,524 | 8 | 5.0 | % | 3.58 | 5.29 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 4.0% | 262,000 | 240,641 | 248,040 | n/a | n/a | 5.89 | 4.72 | % | |||||||||||||||
| TBA 4.5% | 223,000 | 210,940 | 216,415 | n/a | n/a | 4.75 | 4.92 | % | |||||||||||||||
| TBA 5.0% | 518,000 | 490,466 | 512,982 | n/a | n/a | 3.98 | 5.15 | % | |||||||||||||||
| TBA 5.5% | 200,000 | 191,926 | 201,047 | n/a | n/a | 2.81 | 5.36 | % | |||||||||||||||
| TBA 6.0% | 200,000 | 193,369 | 203,219 | n/a | n/a | 2.15 | 5.37 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 7,425,502 | $ | 7,321,264 | $ | 7,145,235 | 17 | 4.8 | % | 4.72 | 4.98 | % |
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| December 31, 2022 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Par/Notional | Amortized Cost/Implied Cost Basis (1)(3) | Fair Value (2)(3) | Weighted Average | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Coupon | Loan Age(in months)(4) | 3 MonthCPR (4)(5) | Estimated Duration (6) | Market Yield (7) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 30-year fixed-rate: | ($s in thousands) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.0% | $ | 1,193,344 | $ | 1,210,065 | $ | 982,387 | 23 | 5.2 | % | 7.14 | 4.53 | % | |||||||||||
| 2.5% | 659,181 | 685,838 | 566,525 | 28 | 5.9 | % | 6.67 | 4.59 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 4.0% | 325,726 | 329,725 | 309,940 | 25 | 7.2 | % | 5.56 | 4.75 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 4.5% | 803,043 | 799,786 | 782,319 | 4 | 4.4 | % | 5.02 | 4.89 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 5.0% | 123,204 | 125,460 | 121,707 | 4 | 7.2 | % | 3.99 | 5.19 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 4.0% | 1,539,000 | 1,454,263 | 1,447,286 | n/a | n/a | 5.47 | 4.80 | % | |||||||||||||||
| TBA 4.5% | 380,000 | 371,173 | 366,759 | n/a | n/a | 4.79 | 4.99 | % | |||||||||||||||
| TBA 5.0% | 950,000 | 947,484 | 937,523 | n/a | n/a | 4.24 | 5.20 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 5,973,498 | $ | 5,923,794 | $ | 5,514,446 | 18 | 5.4 | % | 5.54 | 4.83 | % |
(1)Implied cost basis of TBAs represents the forward price to be paid for the underlying Agency MBS.
(2)Fair value of TBAs is the implied market value of the underlying Agency security as of the end of the period.
(3)TBAs are included on the consolidated balance sheet within “derivative assets/liabilities” at their net carrying value which is the difference between their implied market value and implied cost basis. Please refer to Note 5 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.
(4)TBAs are excluded from this calculation as they do not have a defined weighted-average loan balance or age until mortgages have been assigned to the pool.
(5)Constant prepayment rate (“CPR”) represents the 3-month CPR of Agency RMBS held as of date indicated.
(6)Duration measures the sensitivity of a security's price to the change in interest rates and represents the percent change in price of a security for a 100-basis point increase in interest rates. We calculate duration using third-party financial models and empirical data. Different models and methodologies can produce different estimates of duration for the same securities.
(7)Represents the weighted average market yield projected using cash flows generated off the forward curve based on market prices as of the date indicated and assuming zero volatility.
Less than 4% of our MBS portfolio as of December 31, 2023 is comprised of Agency CMBS, Agency CMBS IO, and non-Agency CMBS IO. Our Agency CMBS and Agency CMBS IO are backed by loans collateralized by multifamily properties, which have performed well for the last decade versus other sectors of the commercial real estate market. Our Agency CMBS IO are Class X1 from Freddie Mac Series K deals from which interest continues to be advanced even in the event of an underlying default up until liquidation. According to Freddie Mac, 99.8% of the loans in K-deals are current as of November 2023. Our non-Agency CMBS IO were all originated prior to 2018 with a weighted average remaining life of less than 2 years. The underlying loans for the non-Agency CMBS IO securities are collateralized by a number of different property types including: 28% retail, 25% office, 15% multifamily, 12% hotel and 20% all other real estate categories. In the current macroeconomic environment, we are not actively purchasing CMBS or CMBS IO as current risk versus reward remains unattractive relative to Agency RMBS.
The following table provides certain information regarding our CMBS and CMBS IO as of the dates indicated:
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| December 31, 2023 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($s in thousands) | Amortized Cost | Fair Value | WAVG Life Remaining (1) | WAVG Market Yield (2) | ||||||||
| Agency CMBS | $ | 121,799 | $ | 115,595 | 4.1 | 4.74 | % | |||||
| Agency CMBS IO | 140,824 | 133,302 | 5.9 | 5.19 | % | |||||||
| Non-Agency CMBS IO | 26,490 | 26,416 | 1.1 | 13.32 | % | |||||||
| Total | $ | 289,113 | $ | 275,313 | ||||||||
| December 31, 2022 | ||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Amortized Cost | Fair Value | WAVG Life Remaining (1) | WAVG Market Yield (2) | ||||||||
| Agency CMBS | $ | 132,333 | $ | 124,690 | 4.8 | 4.50 | % | |||||
| Agency CMBS IO | 179,734 | 168,147 | 6.3 | 5.32 | % | |||||||
| Non-Agency CMBS IO | 59,107 | 56,839 | 2.1 | 8.54 | % | |||||||
| Total | $ | 371,174 | $ | 349,676 | ||||||||
| (1) Represents the weighted average life remaining in years based on contractual cash flows as of the dates indicated. | ||||||||||||
| (2) Represents the weighted average market yield projected using cash flows generated off the forward curve based on market prices as of the dates indicated and assuming zero volatility. |
Repurchase Agreements
We have not experienced any difficulty in securing financing with any of our counterparties, and our repurchase agreement counterparties have not indicated any concerns regarding leverage or credit. Please refer to Note 4 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within this Annual Report on Form 10-K as well as “Results of Operations” and “Liquidity and Capital Resources” contained within this Item 7 for additional information relating to our repurchase agreement borrowings.
Derivative Assets and Liabilities
The table below discloses details on the Company's interest rate hedges held as of December 31, 2023 compared to hedging portfolio held as of December 31, 2022:
| Notional Amount Long (Short) | December 31, 2023 | December 31, 2022 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($s in thousands) | |||||||
| 30-year U.S. Treasury futures | $ | (700,000) | $ | — | |||
| 10-year U.S. Treasury futures | (4,180,000) | (4,180,000) | |||||
| 5-year U.S. Treasury futures | — | (740,000) | |||||
| Put options on 10-year U.S. Treasury futures | — | 250,000 |
Please refer to Note 5 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for details on our interest rate hedging instruments as well as “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk” in Item 7A of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
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RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
Year Ended December 31, 2023 Compared to the Year Ended December 31, 2022
Net Interest Income (Expense)
Net interest income and net interest spread declined for the year ended December 31, 2023 compared to year ended December 31, 2022 due to higher borrowing costs resulting from the Federal Reserve’s increases in the Fed Funds rate during 2023. The increase in our borrowing costs has been partially offset by an increase in our average balance of investments with higher yields and our increased investment in cash equivalents. The following table presents information about our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities and their performance for the periods indicated:
| Year Ended | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Interest Income/Expense | Average Balance (1)(2) | Effective Yield/Cost ofFunds (3)(4) | Interest Income/Expense | Average Balance (1)(2) | Effective Yield/Cost ofFunds (3)(4) | |||||||||||||||
| Agency RMBS | $ | 177,695 | $ | 4,621,304 | 3.85 | % | $ | 62,942 | $ | 2,871,291 | 2.19 | % | |||||||||
| Agency CMBS | 3,713 | 124,157 | 2.96 | % | 3,592 | 162,538 | 2.17 | % | |||||||||||||
| CMBS IO (5) | 9,666 | 202,261 | 4.78 | % | 15,555 | 267,984 | 5.80 | % | |||||||||||||
| Non-Agency MBS and other investments | 128 | 2,377 | 5.28 | % | 350 | 4,072 | 8.55 | % | |||||||||||||
| MBS and loans | $ | 191,202 | $ | 4,950,099 | 3.86 | % | $ | 82,439 | $ | 3,305,885 | 2.49 | % | |||||||||
| Cash equivalents | 16,315 | 4,256 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Total interest income | $ | 207,517 | $ | 86,695 | |||||||||||||||||
| Repurchase agreement financing | (215,448) | 4,034,561 | (5.27) | % | (43,612) | 2,603,712 | (1.65) | % | |||||||||||||
| Net interest (expense) income/net interest spread | $ | (7,931) | (1.41) | % | $ | 43,083 | 0.84 | % |
(1)Average balance for assets is calculated as a simple average of the daily amortized cost and excludes securities pending settlement if applicable.
(2)Average balance for liabilities is calculated as a simple average of the daily borrowings outstanding during the period.
(3)Effective yield is calculated by dividing interest income by the average balance of asset type outstanding during the reporting period. Unscheduled adjustments to premium/discount amortization/accretion, such as for prepayment compensation, are not annualized in this calculation.
(4)Cost of funds is calculated by dividing annualized interest expense by the total average balance of borrowings outstanding during the period with an assumption of 360 days in a year.
(5)Includes Agency and non-Agency issued securities.
Gains (Losses) on Investments and Derivative Instruments
As shown in the graph in Executive Overview, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate ranged from a low of 3.31% in April 2023 to a high of 4.99% in October 2023, yet ended the year where it started at 3.88%. Credit spreads, which were wider for the majority of 2023, also tightened during the fourth quarter of 2023. We purchased $3.6 billion of Agency RMBS throughout the year when credit spreads were wider relative to December 31, 2023. As a
34
result, the fair value of our investment portfolio including TBA securities increased a net $68.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2023. These gains were partially offset by net losses on our interest rate hedges of $(10.8) million for the year ended December 31, 2023.
During the year ended December 31, 2022, our interest rate hedges mitigated the impact of higher interest rates on the fair value of our investment portfolio; however, we experienced spread widening across all of our asset classes throughout 2022. As a result, the decline in the fair value of our investments including TBA securities exceeded the gains from our interest rate hedges by $54.2 million.
The following tables provide details on realized and unrealized gains and losses within our investment and interest rate hedging portfolios for the periods indicated:
| Year Ended | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2023 | |||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Realized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in OCI | Total Change in Fair Value | |||||||||||
| Investment portfolio: | |||||||||||||||
| Agency RMBS | $ | (74,916) | $ | 141,263 | $ | 16,343 | $ | 82,690 | |||||||
| Agency CMBS | — | 96 | 1,342 | 1,438 | |||||||||||
| CMBS IO | — | 1,111 | 5,148 | 6,259 | |||||||||||
| Other non-Agency and loans | — | 31 | 10 | 41 | |||||||||||
| Subtotal | (74,916) | 142,501 | 22,843 | 90,428 | |||||||||||
| TBA securities (1) | (97,777) | 75,713 | — | (22,064) | |||||||||||
| Net (loss) gain on investments | $ | (172,693) | $ | 218,214 | $ | 22,843 | $ | 68,364 | |||||||
| Interest rate hedging portfolio: | |||||||||||||||
| U.S. Treasury futures | $ | 234,015 | $ | (246,445) | $ | — | $ | (12,430) | |||||||
| Put options on U.S. Treasury futures | 3,645 | (2,056) | — | 1,589 | |||||||||||
| Net gain (loss) on interest rate hedges | $ | 237,660 | $ | (248,501) | $ | — | $ | (10,841) | |||||||
| Total net gain (loss) | $ | 64,967 | $ | (30,287) | $ | 22,843 | $ | 57,523 |
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| Year Ended | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2022 | |||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Realized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in OCI | Total Change in Fair Value | |||||||||||
| Investment portfolio: | |||||||||||||||
| Agency RMBS | $ | (89,067) | $ | (208,129) | $ | (152,734) | $ | (449,930) | |||||||
| Agency CMBS | — | $ | (1,169) | $ | (14,110) | (15,279) | |||||||||
| CMBS IO | — | (3,924) | (21,153) | (25,077) | |||||||||||
| Other non-Agency and loans | — | 200 | (78) | 122 | |||||||||||
| Subtotal | (89,067) | (213,022) | (188,075) | (490,164) | |||||||||||
| TBA securities (1) | (309,527) | (26,120) | — | (335,647) | |||||||||||
| Net loss on investments | $ | (398,594) | $ | (239,142) | $ | (188,075) | $ | (825,811) | |||||||
| Interest rate hedging portfolio: | |||||||||||||||
| U.S. Treasury futures | $ | 642,281 | $ | 82,066 | $ | — | $ | 724,347 | |||||||
| Interest rate swaptions | 50,940 | (3,202) | — | 47,738 | |||||||||||
| Put options on U.S. Treasury futures | (2,487) | 2,056 | — | (431) | |||||||||||
| Net gain on interest rate hedges | $ | 690,734 | $ | 80,920 | $ | — | $ | 771,654 | |||||||
| Total net gain (loss) | $ | 292,140 | $ | (158,222) | $ | (188,075) | $ | (54,157) |
1)Realized and unrealized gains (losses) on TBA securities are recorded within “gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net” on the Company’s consolidated statements of comprehensive income.
Operating Expenses
Operating expenses for the year ended December 31, 2023 decreased $1.0 million compared to the year ended December 31, 2022 primarily due to lower consulting and legal expenses.
Year Ended December 31, 2022 Compared to the Year Ended December 31, 2021
Please refer to “Results of Operations” within Item 7 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022 for a discussion of the results of operations for the year ended December 31, 2022 compared to the year ended December 31, 2021, which is incorporated herein by reference.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
In evaluating the Company’s financial and operating performance, management considers book value per common share, total economic return (loss) to common shareholders, and other operating results presented in accordance with GAAP as well as certain non-GAAP financial measures, which include the following: EAD to common shareholders (including per common share), adjusted net interest income and the related metric adjusted net interest spread. Management believes these non-GAAP financial measures may be useful to investors because they are viewed by management as a measure of the investment portfolio’s return based on the effective yield of its investments, net of financing costs and, with respect to EAD, net of other normal recurring operating income/expenses. Drop income generated by TBA dollar roll positions, which is included in "gain (loss) on derivatives instruments, net" on the Company's consolidated statements of comprehensive income, is included in these non-GAAP financial measures because management views drop income as the economic equivalent of net interest
income (interest income less implied financing cost) on the underlying Agency security from trade date to settlement date. However, these non-GAAP financial measures are not a substitute for GAAP earnings and may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other REITs because they may not be calculated in the same manner. Furthermore, though EAD is one of several factors our management considers in determining the appropriate level of distributions to common shareholders, it should not be utilized in isolation, and it is not an accurate indication of the Company’s REIT taxable income or its distribution requirements in accordance with the Tax Code.
Reconciliations of EAD to common shareholders and adjusted net interest income to the related GAAP financial measures are provided below.
| Year Ended | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reconciliations of GAAP to Non-GAAP Financial Measures: | December 31, 2023 | December 31, 2022 | |||||
| ($s in thousands except per share data) | |||||||
| Comprehensive income (loss) to common shareholders | $ | 9,020 | $ | (52,608) | |||
| Less: | |||||||
| Change in fair value of investments (1) | (90,429) | 490,164 | |||||
| Change in fair value of derivative instruments, net (2) | 28,808 | (393,401) | |||||
| EAD to common shareholders | $ | (52,601) | $ | 44,155 | |||
| Average common shares outstanding | 54,809,462 | 42,491,433 | |||||
| EAD per common share | $ | (0.96) | $ | 1.04 | |||
| Net interest expense | $ | (7,931) | $ | 43,083 | |||
| TBA drop (loss) income (3) | (4,097) | 42,606 | |||||
| Adjusted net interest (expense) income | $ | (12,028) | $ | 85,689 | |||
| Total operating expenses | (32,879) | (33,840) | |||||
| Preferred stock dividends | (7,694) | (7,694) | |||||
| EAD to common shareholders | $ | (52,601) | $ | 44,155 |
(1)Amount includes realized and unrealized gains and losses due to changes in the fair value of the Company’s MBS.
(2)Amount includes unrealized gains and losses from changes in fair value of derivatives (including TBAs accounted for as derivative instruments) and realized gains and losses on terminated derivatives and excludes TBA drop loss.
(3)TBA drop income is calculated by multiplying the notional amount of the TBA dollar roll positions by the difference in price between two TBA securities with the same terms but different settlement dates.
We primarily use U.S. Treasury futures to hedge the impact of increasing interest rates on our borrowing costs and the fair value of our investments. In the past, we used interest rate swaps to hedge interest rate risk and included the net periodic interest benefit/cost of those instruments in each of the non-GAAP measures mentioned above. Management is using U.S. Treasury futures instead of interest rate swaps because U.S. Treasury futures generally have lower margin requirements and offer more liquidity and flexibility in the current volatile interest rate environment. The Company’s realized gains on its U.S. Treasury futures as well as other interest rate hedges are included in GAAP earnings in the same reporting period in which the derivative instrument matures or is terminated, but are not included in EAD or adjusted net interest income during any reporting period. Furthermore, because the majority of the U.S. Treasury futures and other derivative instruments are designated as hedges for tax purposes, the realized gains are not distributable to our shareholders until amortized into REIT taxable income over the period originally hedged. Additional information regarding the expected impact of deferred tax hedge amortization on our estimated REIT taxable income is discussed in “Executive Overview” and “Liquidity and Capital Resources.”
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Our primary sources of liquidity include borrowings under repurchase arrangements and monthly principal and interest payments we receive on our investments. Additional sources may also include proceeds from the sale of
investments, equity offerings, and net payments received from counterparties for derivative instruments. We use our liquidity to purchase investments, to pay amounts due on our repurchase agreement borrowings, and to pay our operating expenses and dividends on our common and preferred stock. We also use our liquidity to meet margin requirements for our repurchase agreements and derivative transactions, including TBA contracts, under the terms of the related agreements. We may also periodically use liquidity to repurchase shares of the Company’s stock.
Our liquidity fluctuates based on our investment activities, our leverage, capital raising activities, and changes in the fair value of our investments and derivative instruments. Our measurement of liquidity includes unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and unencumbered Agency MBS, which are recognized as assets on our consolidated balance sheet. We also include in our measure of liquidity the fair value of noncash collateral pledged to us by our counterparties, which we typically receive when the fair value of our pledged collateral exceeds our current margin requirement. Though the fair value of this noncash collateral is not recorded on our consolidated balance sheet, we include this amount in our liquidity measure because we have the right repledge the noncash collateral pledged to us by our counterparties. Our liquidity as of December 31, 2023 was $453.6 million, which consisted of unrestricted cash of $119.6 million, unencumbered Agency MBS with a fair value of $157.6 million, and noncash collateral received from our counterparties, which consisted of U.S. Treasuries and Agency RMBS, with a fair value of $176.3 million. The decline in our liquidity, which was $632.3 million as of December 31, 2022, is primarily due to our use of cash to partially finance investment purchases during the year ended December 31, 2023 and to cover dividends declared in excess of cash provided by operating activities.
We continuously monitor our liquidity, especially with potential risk events on the horizon, such as uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policy decisions, frequent potential for a government shutdown, the impact on global markets stemming from global central bank policies, and the wars between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas. We continuously assess the adequacy of our liquidity under various scenarios based on changes in the fair value of our investments and derivative instruments due to market factors such as changes in the absolute level of interest rates and the shape of the yield curve, credit spreads, lender haircuts, and prepayment speeds, which in turn have an impact on derivative margin requirements. In performing these analyses, we will also consider the current state of the fixed income markets and the repurchase agreement markets in order to determine if market forces such as supply-demand imbalances or structural changes to these markets could change the liquidity of MBS or the availability of financing. We also communicate frequently with our counterparties. We have not experienced any material changes in the terms of our repurchase agreements with our counterparties, and they have not indicated to us any concerns regarding access to liquidity.
Our perception of the liquidity of our investments and market conditions significantly influences our targeted leverage. In general, our leverage will increase if we view the risk-reward opportunity of higher leverage on our capital outweighs the risk to our liquidity and book value. Our leverage, which we calculate using total liabilities plus the cost basis of TBA long positions, was 7.8 times shareholders’ equity as of December 31, 2023. We include the cost basis of our TBA securities in evaluating our leverage because it is possible under certain market conditions that it may be uneconomical for us to roll a TBA long position into future months, which may result in us having to take physical delivery of the underlying securities and use cash or other financing sources to fund our total purchase commitment. Leverage based on repurchase agreement amounts outstanding was 6.2 times shareholders’ equity as of December 31, 2023.
Our repurchase agreement borrowings are principally uncommitted with terms renewable at the discretion of our lenders and generally have original terms to maturity of overnight to six months, though in some instances we may enter into longer-dated maturities depending on market conditions. We seek to maintain unused capacity under our existing repurchase agreement credit lines with multiple counterparties, which helps protect us in the event of a counterparty's failure to renew existing repurchase agreements. As part of our continuous evaluation of counterparty risk, we maintain our highest counterparty exposures with broker dealer subsidiaries of regulated financial institutions or primary dealers.
The amount outstanding for our repurchase agreement borrowings will typically fluctuate in any given period as it is dependent upon a number of factors, but particularly the extent to which we are active in buying and selling securities, including the volume of activity in TBA dollar roll transactions versus buying specified pools. The following table presents information regarding the balances of our repurchase agreement borrowings as of and for the periods indicated:
| Repurchase Agreements | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($s in thousands) | Balance Outstanding As of Quarter End | Average Balance Outstanding For the Quarter Ended | Maximum Balance Outstanding During the Quarter Ended | |||||||
| December 31, 2023 | $ | 5,381,104 | $ | 5,168,821 | $ | 5,381,354 | ||||
| September 30, 2023 | 5,002,230 | 4,773,435 | 5,037,440 | |||||||
| June 30, 2023 | 4,201,901 | 3,447,406 | 4,203,788 | |||||||
| March 31, 2023 | 2,937,124 | 2,713,481 | 2,959,263 | |||||||
| December 31, 2022 | 2,644,405 | 2,727,274 | 3,072,483 | |||||||
| September 30, 2022 | 2,991,876 | 2,398,268 | 3,082,138 | |||||||
| June 30, 2022 | 2,202,648 | 2,486,217 | 2,949,918 | |||||||
| March 31, 2022 | 2,952,802 | 2,806,212 | 2,973,475 | |||||||
| December 31, 2021 | 2,849,916 | 2,701,191 | 2,873,523 | |||||||
| September 30, 2021 | 2,527,065 | 2,529,023 | 2,590,185 | |||||||
| June 30, 2021 | 2,321,043 | 2,155,200 | 2,415,037 | |||||||
| March 31, 2021 | 2,032,089 | 2,158,121 | 2,437,163 | |||||||
| December 31, 2020 | 2,437,163 | 2,500,639 | 2,594,683 |
For our repurchase agreement borrowings, we are required to post and maintain margin to the lender (i.e., collateral in excess of the repurchase agreement borrowing) in order to support the amount of the financing. This excess collateral is often referred to as a “haircut” and is intended to provide the lender protection against fluctuations in fair value of the collateral and/or the failure by us to repay the borrowing at maturity. Lenders have the right to change haircut requirements at maturity of the repurchase agreement and may change their haircuts based on market conditions and the perceived riskiness of the collateral pledged. If the fair value of the collateral falls below the amount required by the lender, the lender has the right to demand additional margin, or collateral.. These demands are referred to as “margin calls,” and if we fail to meet any margin call, our lenders have the right to terminate the repurchase agreement and sell any collateral pledged. The weighted average haircut for our borrowings as of December 31, 2023 was consistent with prior periods, which has typically averaged less than 5% for borrowings collateralized with Agency RMBS and CMBS and between 12-16% for borrowings collateralized with CMBS IO.
The collateral we post in excess of our repurchase agreement borrowing with any counterparty is also typically referred to by us as “equity at risk,” which represents the potential loss to the Company if the counterparty is unable or unwilling to return collateral securing the repurchase agreement borrowing at its maturity. The counterparties with whom we have the greatest amounts of equity at risk may vary significantly during any given period due to the short-term and generally uncommitted nature of the repurchase agreement borrowings. As of December 31, 2023, the Company had amounts outstanding under 28 different repurchase agreements and did not have more than 10% of equity at risk with any counterparty or group of related counterparties.
We have various financial and operating covenants in certain of our repurchase agreements, which we monitor and evaluate on an ongoing basis for compliance as well as for impacts these customary covenants may have on our operating and financing flexibility. Currently, we do not believe we are subject to any covenants that materially restrict our financing flexibility. We were in full compliance with our debt covenants as of December 31, 2023, and we are not aware of circumstances which could potentially result in our non-compliance in the foreseeable future.
Derivative Instruments
Derivative instruments we enter into may require us to post initial margin at inception and daily variation margin based on subsequent changes in their fair value. Daily variation margin requirements also entitle us to
receive collateral from our counterparties if the value of amounts owed to us under the derivative agreement exceeds the minimum margin requirement. The collateral posted as margin by us is typically in the form of cash. As of December 31, 2023, we had cash collateral posted to our counterparties of $118.2 million under these agreements.
Collateral requirements for interest rate derivative instruments are typically governed by the central clearing exchange and the associated futures commission merchant, which may establish margin requirements in excess of the clearing exchange. Collateral requirements for our TBA contracts are governed by the Mortgage-Backed Securities Division ("MBSD") of the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation and, if applicable, by our third-party brokerage agreements, which may establish margin levels in excess of the MBSD. Our TBA contracts, which are subject to master securities forward transaction agreements published by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association as well as supplemental terms and conditions with each counterparty, generally provide that valuations for our TBA contracts and any pledged collateral are to be obtained from a generally recognized source agreed to by both parties. However, in certain circumstances, our counterparties have the sole discretion to determine the value of the TBA contract and any pledged collateral. In such instances, our counterparties are required to act in good faith in making determinations of value. In the event of a margin call, we must generally provide additional collateral on the same business day.
Dividends
As a REIT, we are required to distribute to our shareholders amounts equal to at least 90% of our REIT taxable income for each taxable year after certain deductions. When declaring dividends, our Board of Directors considers the Company’s taxable income, the REIT distribution requirements of the Tax Code, financial performance measures, and maintaining compliance with dividend requirements of the Series C Preferred Stock, along with other factors that the Board of Directors may deem relevant from time to time.
Currently, we are primarily using U.S. Treasury futures to hedge the impact of increasing interest rates on our financing costs and fair value of our investments. Realized and unrealized gains (losses) on these derivative instruments are included in GAAP earnings in the same reporting period in which the derivative instrument matures or is terminated by the Company, but are not included in EAD to common shareholders during any reporting period. Furthermore, because we designate the majority of our derivative instruments as interest rate hedges for tax purposes, realized gains and losses recognized in GAAP net income are generally not recognized in REIT taxable income until future periods. Due to the significant increase in interest rates over the past two years, our net deferred tax hedge gain has increased substantially to $861.8 million as of December 31, 2023. The amortization of our net deferred tax hedge gain will be amortized into REIT taxable income over several years. We expect our taxable income for 2023 will include $80.5 million related to amortization of net deferred tax hedge gains, and our taxable income for 2024 is currently projected to include approximately $102.9 million from amortization of deferred tax hedge gains. As of December 31, 2023, we also had $590.8 million in capital loss carryforwards, the majority of which expire by 2028, and NOL carryforwards of $8.1 million, which will expire over the next 2 years. Due to these amounts and other temporary and permanent differences between GAAP net income and REIT taxable income coupled with the degree of uncertainty about the trajectory of interest rates, we cannot reasonably estimate how much the deferred tax hedge gains to be recognized will impact our dividend declarations during 2024 or in any given year.
We generally fund our dividend distributions through our cash flows from operations. If we make dividend distributions in excess of our operating cash flows during the period, whether for purposes of meeting our REIT distribution requirements or other reasons, those distributions are generally funded either through our existing cash balances or through the return of principal from our investments (either through repayment or sale). Please refer to "Operating and Regulatory Structure" within Part I, Item 1, "Business" as well as Part I, Item 1A, “Risk Factors” of our 2022 Form 10-K for additional important information regarding dividends declared on our taxable income.
RECENT ACCOUNTING PRONOUNCEMENTS
There were no accounting pronouncements issued during the year ended December 31, 2023 that are expected to have a material impact on the Company’s financial condition or results of operations. Please refer to Note 1 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within Part I, Item 1 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information.
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CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
The discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations are based in large part upon our consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. The preparation of our consolidated financial statements requires management to make estimates, judgments and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities. We base these estimates and judgments on historical experience and assumptions believed to be reasonable under current facts and circumstances. Actual results, however, may differ from the estimated amounts we have recorded.
The following discussion provides information on our critical accounting policies that require management's most difficult, subjective or complex judgments, and which may result in materially different results under different assumptions and conditions. Please also refer to Note 1 of our Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements included within Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information related to significant accounting policies.
Fair Value Measurements. Our Agency MBS, as well as a majority of our non-Agency MBS, are substantially similar to securities that either are actively traded or have been recently traded in their respective market. Pricing services and brokers have access to observable market information through trading desks and various information services. MBS prices are based on prices we receive from third-party pricing services and broker quotes. To determine each security's valuation, the pricing service uses either a market approach or income approach, both of which rely on observable market data. The market approach uses prices and other relevant information that is generated by market transactions of identical or similar securities, while the income approach uses valuation techniques to convert estimated future cash flows to a discounted present value. Management reviews the assumptions and inputs utilized in the valuation techniques. Examples of these observable inputs and assumptions include market interest rates, credit spreads, cash flows and projected prepayment speeds, among other things.
In addition, management reviews the prices received for each security by comparing those prices to actual purchase and sale transactions, our internally modeled prices that are calculated based on observable market rates and credit spreads, and the prices that our borrowing counterparties use in financing our securities. If the price of a security is obtained from quoted prices for similar instruments or model-derived valuations whose inputs are observable, the security is classified as a level 2 security. The security is classified as a level 3 security if the inputs are unobservable, resulting in an estimate of fair value based primarily on management's judgment. Please refer to Note 6 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information on fair value measurements.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Certain written statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K that are not historical facts constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act, as amended, and Section 21E of the Exchange Act. Statements in this report addressing expectations, assumptions, beliefs, projections, future plans and strategies, future events, developments that we expect or anticipate will occur in the future, and future operating results, capital management, and dividend policy are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based upon management’s beliefs, assumptions, and expectations as of the date of this report regarding future events and operating performance, taking into account all information currently available to us, and are applicable only as of the date of this report. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by use of words such as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “plan,” “may,” “will,” “intend,” “should,” “could” or similar expressions. We caution readers not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, which are not historical facts and may be based on projections, assumptions, expectations, and anticipated events that do not materialize. Except as required by law, we are not obligated to, and do not intend to, update or revise any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
Forward-looking statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K may include, but are not limited to statements about:
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•Our business and investment strategy including our ability to generate acceptable risk-adjusted returns and our target investment allocations, and our views on the future performance of MBS and other investments;
•Our views on the macroeconomic environment, monetary and fiscal policy, and conditions in the investment, credit, interest rate and derivatives markets;
•Our views on inflation, market interest rates and market spreads;
•Our views on the effect of actual or proposed actions of the Federal Reserve or other central banks with respect to monetary policy (including the targeted Fed Funds rate), and the potential impact of these actions on interest rates, borrowing costs, inflation or unemployment;
•The effect of regulatory initiatives of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, other financial regulators, and other central banks;
•Our financing strategy including our target leverage ratios, our use of TBA dollar roll transactions, and anticipated trends in financing costs including TBA dollar roll transaction costs, and our hedging strategy including changes to the derivative instruments to which we are a party, and changes to government regulation of hedging instruments and our use of these instruments;
•Our investment portfolio composition and target investments;
•Our investment portfolio performance, including the fair value, yields, and forecasted prepayment speeds of our investments;
•Our liquidity and ability to access financing, and the anticipated availability and cost of financing;
•Our capital stock activity including the impact of stock issuances and repurchases;
•The amount, timing, and funding of future dividends;
•Our use of our tax NOL carryforward and other tax loss carryforwards;
•Future competition for, and availability of, investments, financing and capital;
•Estimates of future interest expenses, including related to the Company’s repurchase agreements and derivative instruments;
•The status and effect of legislative reforms and regulatory rule-making or review processes, and the status of reform efforts and other business developments in the repurchase agreement financing market;
•Market, industry and economic trends, and how these trends and related economic data may impact the behavior of market participants and financial regulators;
•The impact of recent bank failures, potential new regulations and the potential for other bank failures this year:
•The impact of debt ceiling negotiations on interest rates, spreads, the U.S. Treasury market as well as the impact more broadly on fixed income and equity markets:
•Uncertainties regarding the war between Russia and the Ukraine or Israel and Hamas and the related impacts on macroeconomic conditions, including, among other things, interest rates;
•The financial position and credit worthiness of the depository institutions in which the Company’s MBS and cash deposits are held;
•The impact of applicable tax and accounting requirements on us including our tax treatment of derivative instruments such as TBAs, interest rate swaps, options and futures;
•Our future compliance with covenants in our master repurchase agreements, ISDA agreements, and debt covenants in our other contractual agreements;
•Our reliance on a single service provider of our trading, portfolio management, risk reporting and accounting services systems;
•The implementation in a timely and cost-effective manner of our operating platform, which includes trading, portfolio management, risk reporting, and accounting services systems, and the anticipated benefits thereof; and
•Possible future effects of the COVID-19 pandemic or any global health crisis.
Forward-looking statements are inherently subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from historical results or from any results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Not all of these risks and other factors are known to us. New risks and uncertainties arise over time, and it is not possible to predict those events or how they may affect us. The projections, assumptions, expectations or beliefs upon which the forward-looking statements are based can also change as a result of these risks or other factors. If such a risk or other factor materializes in future periods, our business,
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financial condition, liquidity and results of operations may vary materially from those expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements.
While it is not possible to identify all factors that may cause actual results to differ from historical results or from any results expressed or implied by forward-looking statements, or that may cause our projections, assumptions, expectations or beliefs to change, some of those factors include the following:
•the risks and uncertainties referenced in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, especially those incorporated by reference into Part II, Item 1A, “Risk Factors,”;
•our ability to find suitable reinvestment opportunities;
•changes in domestic economic conditions;
•geopolitical events, such as terrorism, war or other military conflict, including increased uncertainty regarding the war between Russia and the Ukraine and the related impact on macroeconomic conditions as a result of such conflict;
•changes in interest rates and credit spreads, including the repricing of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities;
•our investment portfolio performance particularly as it relates to cash flow, prepayment rates and credit performance;
•the impact on markets and asset prices from changes in the Federal Reserve’s policies regarding the purchases of Agency RMBS, Agency CMBS, and U.S. Treasuries;
•actual or anticipated changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy or the monetary policy of other central banks;
•adverse reactions in U.S. financial markets related to actions of foreign central banks or the economic performance of foreign economies including in particular China, Japan, the European Union, and the United Kingdom;
•uncertainty concerning the long-term fiscal health and stability of the United States;
•the cost and availability of financing, including the future availability of financing due to changes to regulation of, and capital requirements imposed upon, financial institutions;
•the cost and availability of new equity capital;
•changes in our leverage and use of leverage;
•changes to our investment strategy, operating policies, dividend policy or asset allocations;
•the quality of performance of third-party service providers, including our sole third-party service provider for our critical operations and trade functions;
•the loss or unavailability of our third-party service provider’s service and technology that supports critical functions of our business related to our trading and borrowing activities due to outages, interruptions, or other failures;
•the level of defaults by borrowers on loans underlying MBS;
•changes in our industry;
•increased competition;
•changes in government regulations affecting our business;
•changes or volatility in the repurchase agreement financing markets and other credit markets;
•changes to the market for derivative instruments, including changes to margin requirements on derivative instruments;
•uncertainty regarding continued government support of the U.S. financial system and U.S. housing and real estate markets, or to reform the U.S. housing finance system including the resolution of the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac;
•the composition of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve;
•the political environment in the U.S.;
•systems failures or cybersecurity incidents; and
•exposure to current and future claims and litigation.
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FY 2022 10-K MD&A
SEC filing source: 0000826675-23-000023.
ITEM 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with our financial statements and the related notes included in Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data” in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of various factors including, but not limited to, those disclosed in Item 1A, “Risk Factors” elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K and in other documents filed with the SEC and otherwise publicly disclosed. Please refer to “Forward-Looking Statements” contained within this Item 7 for additional information. This discussion also contains non-GAAP financial measures, which are discussed in the section “Non-GAAP Financial Measures.”
For a complete description of our business including our operating policies, investment philosophy and strategy, financing and hedging strategies, and other important information, please refer to Item 1 of Part I of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW
Early in 2022, the markets continued to transition away from the COVID-19 pandemic, marked by broad shutdowns and supply chain issues, and began to focus on surging inflation, partially caused by unprecedented fiscal stimulus during the pandemic. The war in Ukraine brought new issues to consider, including major sanctions on Russia and the near-term impact on both food and energy exported by both countries as well as the longer-term impact on global trade. Primarily in response to rising global inflation, yields during the first quarter and into the second quarter experienced the fastest and the largest percentage change since 1980, and in an attempt to control inflation, the Federal Reserve clearly signaled that the quantitative easing cycle was over and tightening would begin.
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As the market started to adjust to the shift in monetary policy and sharply rising energy prices, market volatility also increased. Yields across the U.S. Treasury curve rose but were also volatile, marked by both dramatic increases and decreases in short periods of time, and the market demonstrated no signs of stability. Realized volatility, which is a measure of how much prices actually move in a given day, was the highest it has been since the early 1980s, and this level of volatility existed across many asset classes including MBS, Treasuries, equities, credit assets, currencies and cryptocurrencies. Agency RMBS lead the way on spread widening as they are directly linked to the reduction of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase program and its balance sheet, but many other fixed income sectors also experienced significant spread widening in 2022.
Extreme interest rate volatility and spread widening continued, particularly in September and October, as rates rose rapidly and market direction was uncertain. Central banks across the globe struggled to fight inflation while attempting to balance growth and financial stability. As we closed out 2022, the Federal Reserve started to signal a slowing down or stopping of U.S. Federal Funds rate increases in 2023, which provided the market some stability. The market began projecting the end of rate increases and started projecting rate cuts in the near future, leading to an inversion of the yield curve. The perception of some certainty also spurred buying activity and as a result, spreads tightened from the widest levels experienced in the third and fourth quarter of 2022.
The charts below show the range of U.S. Treasury rates and information regarding market spreads as of and for the periods indicated:
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| Market Spreads as of: | Change in Spreads Year to Date | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment Type: | December 31, 2021 | March 31, 2022 | June 30, 2022 | September 30, 2022 | December 31, 2022 | ||||||||||||||
| Agency RMBS: (1) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2.0% coupon | 3 | 10 | 28 | 31 | 27 | 24 | |||||||||||||
| 2.5% coupon | 11 | 21 | 38 | 41 | 35 | 24 | |||||||||||||
| 3.0% coupon | 10 | 34 | 38 | 43 | 36 | 26 | |||||||||||||
| 3.5% coupon | 15 | 22 | 42 | 49 | 39 | 24 | |||||||||||||
| 4.0% coupon | 7 | 26 | 25 | 46 | 33 | 26 | |||||||||||||
| 4.5% coupon | 10 | 34 | 25 | 52 | 34 | 24 | |||||||||||||
| Agency DUS (Agency CMBS)(2) | 31 | 58 | 67 | 91 | 74 | 43 | |||||||||||||
| Freddie K AAA IO (Agency CMBS IO)(2) | 105 | 150 | 170 | 205 | 235 | 130 | |||||||||||||
| AAA CMBS IO (Non-Agency CMBS IO)(2) | 113 | 145 | 225 | 300 | 315 | 202 |
(1)Option adjusted spreads (“OAS”) are based on Company estimates using third-party models and market data. OAS shown for prior periods may differ from previous disclosures because.the Company regularly updates the third-party model used.
(2)Data represents the spread to swap rate on newly issued securities and is sourced from JP Morgan.
Summary of Our 2022 Performance
Regardless of the macroeconomic environment in which we operate, we seek to preserve book value for our shareholders. The degree of uncertainty and amount of volatility in the macroeconomic environment precluded us from accepting more risk, and so we remained focused on minimizing the impact of higher interest rates and spread widening by maintaining leverage within a lower range and increasing our available liquidity. To minimize the loss in fair value of our investments from higher interest rates, we continuously monitored and adjusted our hedge position throughout the year as macroeconomic views and market factors changed. We mitigated additional losses in book value from spread widening by strategically repositioning the coupon distribution in our investment portfolio throughout the year. Despite these measures, the loss of fair value from our investment portfolio exceeded the gains from our interest rate hedges (excluding TBA drop income) by $96.8 million, and as a result, we reported a comprehensive loss to common shareholders of $(52.6) million, or $(1.24) per common share for the year ended December 31, 2022 and a decline of $(3.26) in book value per common share to $14.73 as of December 31, 2022. Book value declined primarily from significant spread widening, particularly in September and October, and which ended the year much wider than at December 31, 2021. Total economic loss to our common shareholders, which consists of the decline in book value of $(3.26) offset by dividends declared of $1.56, was $(1.70) per common share, or (9.5)% of beginning book value.
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The following table provides details about the changes in our financial position during the year ended December 31, 2022:
| Net Change in Fair Value | Components of Comprehensive Loss | Common Book Value Rollforward | Per Common Share | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common shareholders’ book value, December 31, 2021 (1) | $ | 659,779 | $ | 17.99 | ||||||
| Net interest income | $ | 43,083 | ||||||||
| TBA drop income | 42,606 | |||||||||
| G & A and other operating expenses | (33,840) | |||||||||
| Preferred stock dividends | (7,694) | |||||||||
| Changes in fair value: | ||||||||||
| MBS and loans | $ | (490,164) | ||||||||
| TBAs | (378,253) | |||||||||
| U.S. Treasury futures | 724,347 | |||||||||
| Options on U.S. Treasury futures | (431) | |||||||||
| Interest rate swaptions | 47,738 | |||||||||
| Total net change in fair value | (96,763) | |||||||||
| Comprehensive loss to common shareholders | (52,608) | (1.24) | ||||||||
| Capital transactions: | ||||||||||
| Net proceeds from stock issuance (2) | 249,891 | (0.46) | ||||||||
| Common dividends declared | (67,234) | (1.56) | ||||||||
| Common shareholders' book value, December 31, 2022 (1) | $ | 789,828 | $ | 14.73 |
(1)Common shareholders’ book value is equal to total shareholders' equity less the aggregate liquidation preference of the Company's preferred stock of $111,500.
(2)Net proceeds from stock issuance include $246.9 million from common stock ATM program and $3.0 million from share-based compensation grants, net of amortization. The amount shown for “per common share” includes the impact of the increase in the number of common shares outstanding.
During 2022, we raised equity of $246.9 million through our common stock ATM program at an average net issue price of $14.63 per common share compared to an average market price of approximately $15.01 per common share. These issuances contributed to the decline in book value per common share for 2022, but increased our capital base and liquidity. We expect to use this additional liquidity to add assets to our balance sheet with returns in the mid- teens, which exceeds our dividend yield to year end book value per common share of approximately 10.6%. We used a portion of these proceeds during 2022 to purchase $1.5 billion of primarily Agency RMBS at wider spreads and with lower premiums or, in some cases, below par. Our average portfolio including TBAs increased 20% during the year ended December 31, 2022 primarily as a result of these purchases, which led to an increase in our interest income and effective yield relative to the prior year. However, the rate hikes by the Federal Reserve during 2022 significantly increased our borrowing costs, and as a result, our net interest income for the year ended December 31, 2022 declined $(11.3) million compared to the year ended December 31, 2021.
Current Outlook
As the macroeconomic environment continues to evolve, we are approaching the markets with discipline and are preparing for many possible outcomes, given the degree of volatility and uncertainty that exists today. We remain in an unprecedented era of quantitative tightening which, if maintained, will continue to change the dynamics around the price of risk. Over time, we expect excess liquidity will continue to be drained from the system, which means less
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cash will remain to take on evolving risks as central banks continue to tighten monetary policy. In our opinion, this could create an environment of persistently higher returns as investors adjust expectations for an era of higher interest rates, scarcer capital, and less central bank involvement in the pricing of risk. This is a core tenet of our long-term view for portfolio construction and risk posture. Absent an abrupt turnaround in quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve, there is a higher probability of more repricing of risk in 2023.
Unlike 2020, when the direction of interest rates and Federal Reserve policy was clearer, the current market is marked with uncertainty. The global economy is increasing in complexity given many factors including energy, human conflict, geopolitics, inflation, climate change, war, sanctions, and significant changes in global trading partners. Central banks are facing conflicting mandates between supporting employment and generating growth versus combating the worst global inflation since the 1970s. The markets continue to seek direction on the level of risk, rates, and curve. We believe the markets are pricing in a high degree of certainty that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the medium-term in reaction to a slowdown in the economy. The markets also seem to have a high degree of confidence that inflation will approach the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% as soon as early 2024.
We also remain prepared for the possibility of continuing inflation pressures and coordinated hawkish behavior across global central banks. We expect that these factors will define the range in interest rates and keep market volatility elevated.
Given this backdrop, we believe there is potential for good investment opportunities ahead. For the first time since the 1970s, there will be no secondary market presence from the GSE’s or the Federal Reserve. The demand previously provided by the Federal Reserve must be replaced by private capital, particularly as current conditions do not favor banks absorbing the net supply. We believe we will be presented with additional opportunities to invest in assets with highly accretive returns. We have capacity to increase leverage and have liquidity to deploy into assets in the near and medium term that will benefit our earnings and book value well into the future. We continue to focus on minimizing large downside risk to book value while maintaining an opportunistic stance, highly liquid and flexible balance sheet position, and our eyes on the horizon for attractive investments across the mortgage-backed security landscape.
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FINANCIAL CONDITION
Investment Portfolio
Our investment portfolio as of December 31, 2022 increased approximately 33% (based on amortized cost) since December 31, 2021. Because we have been maintaining a highly liquid and lower leverage profile, we have deployed capital during intermittent periods of spread widening into assets with higher forward returns that are forecasted to meet or exceed our cost of capital raising during 2022. The following chart compares the composition of our MBS portfolio including TBA securities as of the dates indicated:
To minimize losses due to spread volatility, we frequently changed the coupon distribution in our Agency RMBS and TBA portfolios throughout 2022. During the first quarter, we shifted from lower coupon TBA securities into 3.0% and 3.5% while keeping our specified pools of Agency RMBS in predominantly 2.0% and 2.5% coupons. In the second quarter of 2022, we diversified our coupon exposure into 4.0% and 4.5% TBA securities and sold a portion of our lower coupon Agency RMBS, which initially bore the brunt of spread widening. Though we realized losses for some of the premium we paid on lower coupon securities sold during this shift, purchases of higher coupon Agency RMBS made when spreads widened during the third quarter were at a discount to par, which will be accreted into income over time as principal payments are received. As the year progressed, the coupon distribution of our Agency RMBS and TBA portfolios expanded into higher coupons to mitigate the impact of higher financing rates on our net interest income as well as to minimize book value loss due to higher interest rates.
Spreads tightened modestly toward the end of 2022 relative to their widest during September and October 2022 and have remained tighter in the early weeks of 2023; however, we expect spreads will remain volatile and range-bound in the intermediate term while the Federal Reserve continues reducing MBS from its balance sheet. Longer term, as investors return to the MBS market and demand improves, we expect the fair value of our investment portfolio to increase and our book value to recover.
The following tables compare our fixed-rate Agency RMBS investments, including TBA dollar roll positions, as of the dates indicated:
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| December 31, 2022 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Par/Notional | Amortized Cost/Implied Cost Basis (1)(3) | Fair Value (2)(3) | Weighted Average | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Coupon | Loan Age(in months)(4) | 3 MonthCPR (4)(5) | Estimated Duration (6) | Market Yield (4)(7) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 30-year fixed-rate: | ($s in thousands) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.0% | $ | 1,193,344 | $ | 1,210,065 | $ | 982,387 | 23 | 5.2 | % | 7.14 | 4.53 | % | |||||||||||
| 2.5% | 659,181 | 685,838 | 566,525 | 28 | 5.9 | % | 6.67 | 4.59 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 4.0% | 325,726 | 329,725 | 309,940 | 25 | 7.2 | % | 5.56 | 4.75 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 4.5% | 803,043 | 799,786 | 782,319 | 4 | 4.4 | % | 5.02 | 4.89 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 5.0% | 123,204 | 125,460 | 121,707 | 4 | 7.2 | % | 3.99 | 5.19 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 4.0% | 1,539,000 | 1,454,263 | 1,447,286 | n/a | n/a | 5.47 | n/a | ||||||||||||||||
| TBA 4.5% | 380,000 | 371,173 | 366,759 | n/a | n/a | 4.79 | n/a | ||||||||||||||||
| TBA 5.0% | 950,000 | 947,484 | 937,523 | n/a | n/a | 4.24 | n/a | ||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 5,973,498 | $ | 5,923,794 | $ | 5,514,446 | 18 | 5.4 | % | 5.54 | 4.70 | % |
| December 31, 2021 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Par/Notional | Amortized Cost/Implied Cost Basis (1)(3) | Fair Value (2)(3) | Weighted Average | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Coupon | Loan Age(in months)(4) | 3 MonthCPR (4)(5) | Estimated Duration (6) | Market Yield (4)(7) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 30-year fixed-rate: | ($s in thousands) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2.0% | $ | 1,311,069 | $ | 1,330,353 | $ | 1,312,190 | 11 | 8.0 | % | 6.69 | 1.98 | % | |||||||||||
| 2.5% | 1,165,810 | 1,215,841 | 1,199,092 | 15 | 11.3 | % | 5.83 | 2.11 | % | ||||||||||||||
| 4.0% | 162,868 | 167,713 | 175,493 | 45 | 34.1 | % | 3.09 | 2.30 | % | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 2.0% | 965,000 | 957,600 | 961,080 | n/a | n/a | 6.54 | n/a | ||||||||||||||||
| TBA 2.5% | 190,000 | 193,563 | 193,585 | n/a | n/a | 5.23 | n/a | ||||||||||||||||
| 15-year fixed-rate: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| TBA 1.5% | 375,000 | 375,259 | 376,523 | n/a | n/a | 4.58 | n/a | ||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 4,169,747 | $ | 4,240,329 | $ | 4,217,963 | 15 | 11.2 | % | 6.01 | 2.06 | % |
(1)Implied cost basis of TBAs represents the forward price to be paid for the underlying Agency MBS.
(2)Fair value of TBAs is the implied market value of the underlying Agency security as of the end of the period.
(3)TBAs are included on the consolidated balance sheet within “derivative assets/liabilities” at their net carrying value which is the difference between their implied market value and implied cost basis. Please refer to Note 5 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.
(4)TBAs are excluded from this calculation as they do not have a defined weighted-average loan balance or age until mortgages have been assigned to the pool.
(5)Constant prepayment rate (“CPR”) represents the 3-month CPR of Agency RMBS held as of date indicated.
(6)Duration measures the sensitivity of a security's price to the change in interest rates and represents the percent change in price of a security for a 100-basis point increase in interest rates. We calculate duration using third-party financial models and empirical data. Different models and methodologies can produce different estimates of duration for the same securities.
(7)Represents the weighted average market yield projected using cash flows generated off the forward curve based on market prices as of the date indicated and assuming zero volatility.
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The remainder of our MBS portfolio is mostly comprised of Agency CMBS, Agency CMBS IO, and non-Agency CMBS IO. Our Agency CMBS and Agency CMBS IO are backed by loans collateralized by multifamily properties and our non-Agency CMBS IO, which were all originated prior to 2018, are backed by loans collateralized by a number of different property types, including retail, office, multifamily, hotel, and other properties. In the current macroeconomic environment, we are not actively purchasing CMBS or CMBS IO as these securities are experiencing wider spreads and supply of new originations is significantly limited.
The following table provides certain information regarding our CMBS and CMBS IO as of the dates indicated:
| December 31, 2022 | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amortized Cost | Fair Value | WAVG Life Remaining (1) | WAVG Coupon (2) | WAVG Market Yield (3) | |||||||||||
| Agency CMBS | $ | 132,333 | $ | 124,690 | 4.8 | 3.22 | % | 4.50 | % | ||||||
| Agency CMBS IO | 179,734 | 168,147 | 6.3 | n/a | 5.32 | % | |||||||||
| Non-Agency CMBS IO | 59,107 | 56,839 | 2.1 | n/a | 8.54 | % | |||||||||
| Total | $ | 371,174 | $ | 349,676 | |||||||||||
| December 31, 2021 | |||||||||||||||
| Amortized Cost | Fair Value | WAVG Life Remaining (1) | WAVG Coupon (2) | WAVG Market Yield (3) | |||||||||||
| Agency CMBS | $ | 177,211 | 184,847 | 5.3 | 3.25 | % | 2.02 | % | |||||||
| Agency CMBS IO | 199,523 | 208,858 | 6.1 | n/a | 2.01 | % | |||||||||
| Non-Agency CMBS IO | 98,674 | 100,561 | 2.8 | n/a | 2.81 | % | |||||||||
| Total | $ | 475,408 | $ | 494,266 | |||||||||||
| (1) Represents the weighted average life remaining in years based on contractual cash flows as of the dates indicated. | |||||||||||||||
| (2) Represents the weighted average coupon based on par as of the dates indicated. | |||||||||||||||
| (3) Represents the weighted average market yield projected using cash flows generated off the forward curve based on market prices as of the dates indicated and assuming zero volatility. |
Repurchase Agreements
We have not experienced any difficulty in securing financing with any of our counterparties, and our repurchase agreement counterparties have not indicated any concerns regarding leverage or credit. We expect our financing costs will continue to increase in 2023 as the Federal Reserve is expected to continue increasing the Federal Funds Rate. Please refer to Note 4 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within this Annual Report on Form 10-K as well as “Results of Operations” and “Liquidity and Capital Resources” contained within this Item 7 for additional information relating to our repurchase agreement borrowings.
Derivative Assets and Liabilities
Our interest rate hedging portfolio increased since December 31, 2021 by a net notional of $1.0 billion in short positions of U.S. Treasury futures and $250.0 million in options on U.S. Treasury futures. As interest rate volatility increased and the direction of interest rates became less certain during the first half of 2022, we moved to a shorter duration position relative to the beginning of 2022. As rates sold off late in the third quarter of 2022, we removed a portion of our hedges in order to better protect book value in flattening or inverted yield curve environments. Please refer to Note 5 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for details on our interest rate derivative instruments as well as “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk” in Item 7A of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
32
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The discussion below includes both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that management utilizes in its analysis of financial and operating performance. Please read the section “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this section for additional important information about these financial measures.
Year Ended December 31, 2022 Compared to the Year Ended December 31, 2021
Net Interest Income
The following table presents information about our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities and their performance for the periods indicated:
| Year Ended | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Interest Income/Expense | Average Balance (1)(2) | Effective Yield/Cost ofFunds (3)(4) | Interest Income/Expense | Average Balance (1)(2) | Effective Yield/Cost ofFunds (3)(4) | |||||||||||||||
| Agency RMBS | $ | 62,942 | $ | 2,871,291 | 2.19 | % | $ | 36,017 | $ | 2,145,989 | 1.68 | % | |||||||||
| Agency CMBS | 3,592 | 162,538 | 2.17 | % | 7,683 | 210,335 | 3.62 | % | |||||||||||||
| CMBS IO (5) | 15,555 | 267,984 | 5.80 | % | 15,792 | 330,420 | 4.78 | % | |||||||||||||
| Non-Agency MBS and other investments | 350 | 4,072 | 8.55 | % | 525 | 6,329 | 8.30 | % | |||||||||||||
| MBS and loans | $ | 82,439 | $ | 3,305,885 | 2.49 | % | $ | 60,017 | $ | 2,693,073 | 2.23 | % | |||||||||
| Cash equivalents | 4,256 | 34 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Total interest income | $ | 86,695 | $ | 60,051 | |||||||||||||||||
| Repurchase agreement financing | (43,612) | 2,603,712 | (1.65) | % | (5,671) | 2,387,764 | (0.23) | % | |||||||||||||
| Net interest income/net interest spread | $ | 43,083 | 0.84 | % | $ | 54,380 | 2.00 | % |
(1)Average balance for assets is calculated as a simple average of the daily amortized cost and excludes securities pending settlement if applicable.
(2)Average balance for liabilities is calculated as a simple average of the daily borrowings outstanding during the period.
(3)Effective yield is calculated by dividing interest income by the average balance of asset type outstanding during the reporting period. Unscheduled adjustments to premium/discount amortization/accretion, such as for prepayment compensation, are not annualized in this calculation.
(4)Cost of funds is calculated by dividing annualized interest expense by the total average balance of borrowings outstanding during the period with an assumption of 360 days in a year.
(5)Includes Agency and non-Agency issued securities.
33
Net interest income and net interest spread declined for the year ended December 31, 2022 compared to the year ended December 31, 2021 due to the higher Federal Funds Rate impacting the cost of repurchase agreement financing of our investment portfolio. The increase in interest expense/cost of funds was partially offset by higher interest income due to a larger average balance of higher yielding investments outstanding during the year ended December 31, 2022 compared to the year ended December 31, 2021. Our effective yield increased because the higher interest rate environment during the year ended December 31, 2022 resulted in slower prepayments speeds on our existing portfolio of mostly lower coupon Agency RMBS, thereby lowering our premium amortization expense. In addition, our purchases during the year ended December 31, 2022 have been higher coupon assets with lower premiums than what previously existed in our investment portfolio, and some purchases were at a discount to par.
Adjusted Net Interest Income. Please refer to the section “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for additional information about non-GAAP financial measures used by management to evaluate results of operations.
| Year Ended | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, | |||||||||||||
| 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Amount | Rate | Amount | Rate | |||||||||
| Net interest income/spread | $ | 43,083 | 0.84 | % | $ | 54,380 | 2.00 | % | |||||
| Add: TBA drop income (1) (2) | 42,606 | 0.41 | % | 43,512 | 0.10 | % | |||||||
| Adjusted net interest income/spread | $ | 85,689 | 1.25 | % | $ | 97,892 | 2.10 | % |
(1) TBA drop income is calculated by multiplying the notional amount of the TBA dollar roll positions by the difference in price between two TBA securities with the same terms but different settlement dates.
(2) The impact of TBA drop income on adjusted net interest spread includes the implied average funding cost of TBA dollar roll transactions during the periods indicated.
We estimate the implied net interest spread on our TBA dollar roll transactions for the year ended December 31, 2022 to be 1.86% compared to 2.19% for the year ended December 31, 2021. The decline in implied net interest spread was due to significantly higher implied financing rates, which have increased more than our repurchase agreement financing costs on our Agency RMBS. We continue to invest in TBAs because they are more liquid relative to specified pools of Agency RMBS, which offers us greater flexibility in a volatile interest rate environment should we decide to change our exposure to leverage and duration.
Gains (Losses) on Investments and Derivative Instruments
The following tables provide details on realized and unrealized gains and losses within our investment and interest rate hedging portfolios for the periods indicated:
| Year Ended | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2022 | |||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Realized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in OCI | Total Change in Fair Value | |||||||||||
| Investment portfolio: | |||||||||||||||
| Agency RMBS | $ | (89,067) | $ | (208,129) | $ | (152,734) | $ | (449,930) | |||||||
| Agency CMBS | — | $ | (1,169) | $ | (14,110) | (15,279) | |||||||||
| CMBS IO | — | (3,924) | (21,153) | (25,077) | |||||||||||
| Other non-Agency and loans | — | 200 | (78) | 122 | |||||||||||
| Subtotal | (89,067) | (213,022) | (188,075) | (490,164) | |||||||||||
| TBA securities (1) | (309,527) | (26,120) | — | (335,647) | |||||||||||
| Net loss on investments | $ | (398,594) | $ | (239,142) | $ | (188,075) | $ | (825,811) |
34
| Interest rate hedging portfolio: | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Treasury futures | $ | 642,281 | $ | 82,066 | $ | — | $ | 724,347 | |||||||
| Interest rate swaptions | 50,940 | (3,202) | — | 47,738 | |||||||||||
| Options on U.S. Treasury futures | (2,487) | 2,056 | — | (431) | |||||||||||
| Net gain on interest rate hedges | $ | 690,734 | $ | 80,920 | $ | — | $ | 771,654 | |||||||
| Total net gain (loss) | $ | 292,140 | $ | (158,222) | $ | (188,075) | $ | (54,157) |
| Year Ended | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2021 | |||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Realized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in OCI | Total Change in Fair Value | |||||||||||
| Investment portfolio: | |||||||||||||||
| Agency RMBS | $ | 3,938 | $ | (14,917) | $ | (61,563) | $ | (72,542) | |||||||
| Agency CMBS | 2,767 | — | (11,961) | (9,194) | |||||||||||
| CMBS IO | — | (65) | 187 | 122 | |||||||||||
| Other non-Agency and loans | — | 168 | (195) | (27) | |||||||||||
| Subtotal | 6,705 | (14,814) | (73,532) | (81,641) | |||||||||||
| TBA securities (1) | (13,866) | (4,121) | — | (17,987) | |||||||||||
| Net loss on investments | $ | (7,161) | $ | (18,935) | $ | (73,532) | $ | (99,628) | |||||||
| Interest rate hedging portfolio: | |||||||||||||||
| U.S. Treasury futures | $ | 115,195 | $ | (53,980) | $ | — | $ | 61,215 | |||||||
| Interest rate swaptions (2) | 38,381 | 1,949 | — | 40,330 | |||||||||||
| Options on U.S. Treasury futures | (7,339) | 5,198 | — | (2,141) | |||||||||||
| Net gain on interest rate hedges | $ | 146,237 | $ | (46,833) | $ | — | $ | 99,404 | |||||||
| Total net gain (loss) | $ | 139,076 | $ | (65,768) | $ | (73,532) | $ | (224) |
(1)Realized and unrealized gains (losses) on TBA securities are recorded within “gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net” on the Company’s consolidated statements of comprehensive income.
(2)The Company did not hold any interest rate swaptions as of December 31, 2022. The unrealized loss of $(3.2) million shown for the year ended December 31, 2022 represents the reversal of the unrealized gain recorded prior to the maturity date of the contract.
Our interest rate hedges mitigated the impact of higher interest rates on the fair value of our investment portfolio during the year ended December 31, 2022; however, we experienced spread widening across all of our asset classes throughout 2022. As a result, the decline in the fair value of our investments including TBA securities exceeded the gains from our interest rate hedges by $54.2 million. For the year ended December 31, 2021, the benefit from our interest rate hedges was lower compared to the year ended December 31, 2022 because we hedged a lower percentage of our assets and the yield curve was steeper relative to the year ended December 31, 2022.
For the year ended December 31, 2022, we had capital losses of $(398.6) million, which may not be used to reduce taxable income in 2022. Likewise, the majority of realized gains on our interest rate hedges of $690.7 million during the year ended December 31, 2022 will not be recognized in taxable income for 2022. For additional information, please refer to “Liquidity and Capital Resources-Dividends” within this Item 7 as well as "Operating and Regulatory Structure" within Part I, Item 1, "Business" of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
35
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses for the year ended December 31, 2022 increased $8.3 million compared to the year ended December 31, 2021 due to higher compensation expenses, the majority of which related to severance costs for the Company's CFO transition in August 2022, and to the ongoing implementation of a new investment accounting system.
Year Ended December 31, 2021 Compared to the Year Ended December 31, 2020
Please refer to “Results of Operations” within Item 7 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021 for a discussion of the results of operations for the year ended December 31, 2021 compared to the year ended December 31, 2020, which is incorporated herein by reference.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
In evaluating the Company’s financial and operating performance, management considers book value per common share, total economic return (loss) to common shareholders, and other operating results presented in accordance with GAAP as well as certain non-GAAP financial measures, which include the following: earnings available for distribution (“EAD”) to common shareholders (including per common share), adjusted net interest income and the related metric adjusted net interest spread. Management believes these non-GAAP financial measures may be useful to investors because they are viewed by management as a measure of the investment portfolio’s return based on the effective yield of its investments, net of financing costs and, with respect to EAD, net of other normal recurring operating income/expenses. Drop income generated by TBA dollar roll positions, which is included in "gain (loss) on derivatives instruments, net" on the Company's consolidated statements of comprehensive income, is included in these non-GAAP financial measures because management views drop income as the economic equivalent of net interest income (interest income less implied financing cost) on the underlying Agency security from trade date to settlement date.
However, these non-GAAP financial measures are not a substitute for GAAP earnings and may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other REITs because they may not be calculated in the same manner. Furthermore, though EAD is one of several factors our management considers in determining the appropriate level of distributions to common shareholders, it should not be utilized in isolation, and it is not an accurate indication of the Company’s REIT taxable income or its distribution requirements in accordance with the Tax Code.
Reconciliations of EAD to common shareholders and adjusted net interest income to the related GAAP financial measures are provided below.
| Year Ended | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reconciliations of GAAP to Non-GAAP Financial Measures: | December 31, 2022 | December 31, 2021 | |||||
| ($s in thousands except per share data) | |||||||
| Comprehensive (loss) income to common shareholders | $ | (52,608) | $ | 17,413 | |||
| Less: | |||||||
| Change in fair value of investments (1) | 490,164 | 81,641 | |||||
| Change in fair value of derivative instruments, net (2) | (393,401) | (37,905) | |||||
| Preferred stock redemption charge | — | 2,987 | |||||
| EAD to common shareholders | $ | 44,155 | $ | 64,136 | |||
| Average common shares outstanding | 42,491,433 | 32,596,272 | |||||
| EAD per common share | $ | 1.04 | $ | 1.97 | |||
| Net interest income | $ | 43,083 | $ | 54,380 | |||
| TBA drop income (3) | 42,606 | 43,512 | |||||
| Adjusted net interest income | $ | 85,689 | $ | 97,892 | |||
| General and administrative expenses | (32,353) | (24,085) | |||||
| Other operating expense, net | (1,487) | (1,342) | |||||
| Preferred stock dividends | (7,694) | (8,329) | |||||
| EAD to common shareholders | $ | 44,155 | $ | 64,136 | |||
| Adjusted net interest spread (4) | 1.25 | % | 2.10 | % |
(1)Amount includes realized and unrealized gains and losses recorded in net income and other comprehensive income due to changes in the fair value of the Company’s MBS and other investments.
(2)Amount includes unrealized gains and losses from changes in fair value of derivatives and realized gains and losses on terminated derivatives and excludes TBA drop income.
(3)TBA drop income is calculated by multiplying the notional amount of the TBA dollar roll positions by the difference in price between two TBA securities with the same terms but different settlement dates.
(4)The reconciliation for adjusted net interest spread to net interest spread is shown in “Results of Operations - Adjusted Net Interest Income”.
During the years ended December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, we primarily used U.S. Treasury futures to hedge the impact of increasing interest rates on our borrowing costs and the fair value of our investments. In the past, we used interest rate swaps to hedge interest rate risk and included the net periodic interest benefit/cost of those instruments in each of the non-GAAP measures mentioned above. Management is using U.S. Treasury futures instead of interest rate swaps because U.S. Treasury futures generally have lower margin requirements and offer more liquidity and flexibility in the current rapidly changing interest rate environment. During the year ended December 31, 2022, the Company realized substantial gains on its U.S. Treasury futures as well as other interest rate hedges which are included in GAAP earnings, but are not included in EAD or adjusted net interest income. Furthermore, because these U.S. Treasury futures and other derivative instruments were designated as hedges for tax purposes, the realized gains will be amortized into REIT taxable income over the next several years. For the year ended December 31, 2022, the tax benefit of our hedge gains is approximately $22.5 million, or $0.53 per common share, which is not included in the Company’s calculation of EAD, but is distributable to common shareholders as part of the Company’s ordinary income calculated for tax purposes. Our deferred tax hedge gains we expect to amortize into future taxable income is estimated to be $695.2 million as of December 31, 2022, which is a significant increase from $27.0 million as of December 31, 2021. Additional information regarding the expected impact of deferred tax hedge amortization on our estimated REIT taxable income is discussed in “Liquidity and Capital Resources.”
36
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Our primary sources of liquidity include borrowings under repurchase arrangements and monthly principal and interest payments we receive on our investments. Additional sources may also include proceeds from the sale of investments, equity offerings, and net payments received from counterparties for derivative instruments. We use our liquidity to purchase investments, to pay amounts due on our repurchase agreement borrowings, and to pay our operating expenses and dividends on our common and preferred stock. We also use our liquidity to meet margin requirements for our repurchase agreements and derivative transactions, including TBA contracts, under the terms of the related agreements. We may also periodically use liquidity to repurchase shares of the Company’s stock.
Our liquidity fluctuates based on our investment activities, our leverage, capital raising activities, and changes in the fair value of our investments and derivative instruments. Our most liquid assets include unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and unencumbered Agency RMBS, CMBS, and CMBS IO. As of December 31, 2022, our most liquid assets were $632.3 million compared to $533.1 million as of December 31, 2021. We are continuing to maintain higher levels of available liquidity and lower absolute levels of leverage to protect our book value and to provide us greater financial flexibility against market volatility, which we believe is likely to continue for the near-term, especially given potential risk events on the horizon, such as the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening measures, the impact on global markets stemming from global central bank policies, and the war between Russia and Ukraine.
We continuously assess the adequacy of our liquidity under various scenarios based on changes in the fair value of our investments and derivative instruments due to market factors such as changes in the absolute level of interest rates and the shape of the yield curve, credit spreads, lender haircuts, and prepayment speeds. In performing these analyses, we will also consider the current state of the fixed income markets and the repurchase agreement markets in order to determine if market forces such as supply-demand imbalances or structural changes to these markets could change the liquidity of MBS or the availability of financing. We also communicate frequently with our counterparties. We have not experienced any material changes in the terms of our repurchase agreements with our counterparties, and they have not indicated to us any concerns regarding access to liquidity.
Our perception of the liquidity of our investments and market conditions significantly influences our targeted leverage. In general, our leverage will increase if we view the risk-reward opportunity of higher leverage on our capital outweighs the risk to our liquidity and book value. Our leverage, which we calculate using total liabilities plus the cost basis of TBA long positions, was 6.1 times shareholders’ equity as of December 31, 2022. We include the cost basis of our TBA securities in evaluating our leverage because it is possible under certain market conditions that it may be uneconomical for us to roll a TBA long position into future months, which may result in us having to take physical delivery of the underlying securities and use cash or other financing sources to fund our total purchase commitment.
Our repurchase agreement borrowings are principally uncommitted with terms renewable at the discretion of our lenders and generally have original terms to maturity of overnight to six months, though in some instances we may enter into longer-dated maturities depending on market conditions. We seek to maintain unused capacity under our existing repurchase agreement credit lines with multiple counterparties, which helps protect us in the event of a counterparty's failure to renew existing repurchase agreements. As part of our continuous evaluation of counterparty risk, we maintain our highest counterparty exposures with broker dealer subsidiaries of regulated financial institutions or primary dealers.
The amount outstanding for our repurchase agreement borrowings will typically fluctuate in any given period as it is dependent upon a number of factors, but particularly the extent to which we are active in buying and selling securities, including the volume of activity in dollar roll transactions versus buying specified pools. The following table presents information regarding the balances of our repurchase agreement borrowings as of and for the periods indicated:
| Repurchase Agreements | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($s in thousands) | Balance Outstanding As of Quarter End | Average Balance Outstanding For the Quarter Ended | Maximum Balance Outstanding During the Quarter Ended | |||||||
| December 31, 2022 | $ | 2,644,405 | $ | 2,727,274 | $ | 3,072,483 | ||||
| September 30, 2022 | 2,991,876 | 2,398,268 | 3,082,138 | |||||||
| June 30, 2022 | 2,202,648 | 2,486,217 | 2,949,918 | |||||||
| March 31, 2022 | 2,952,802 | 2,806,212 | 2,973,475 | |||||||
| December 31, 2021 | 2,849,916 | 2,701,191 | 2,873,523 | |||||||
| September 30, 2021 | 2,527,065 | 2,529,023 | 2,590,185 | |||||||
| June 30, 2021 | 2,321,043 | 2,155,200 | 2,415,037 | |||||||
| March 31, 2021 | 2,032,089 | 2,158,121 | 2,437,163 | |||||||
| December 31, 2020 | 2,437,163 | 2,500,639 | 2,594,683 | |||||||
| September 30, 2020 | 2,594,683 | 2,984,946 | 3,314,991 | |||||||
| June 30, 2020 | 3,314,991 | 2,580,296 | 4,408,106 | |||||||
| March 31, 2020 | 4,408,106 | 4,701,010 | 4,917,731 |
For our repurchase agreement borrowings, we are required to post and maintain margin to the lender (i.e., collateral in excess of the repurchase agreement financing) in order to support the amount of the financing. This excess collateral is often referred to as a “haircut” and is intended to provide the lender protection against fluctuations in fair value of the collateral and/or the failure by us to repay the borrowing at maturity. Lenders have the right to change haircut requirements at maturity of the repurchase agreement and may change their haircuts based on market conditions and the perceived riskiness of the collateral pledged. If the fair value of the collateral falls below the amount required by the lender, the lender has the right to demand additional margin, or collateral, to increase the haircut back to the initial amount. These demands are referred to as “margin calls,” and if we fail to meet any margin call, our lenders have the right to terminate the repurchase agreement and sell any collateral pledged. The weighted average haircut for our borrowings as of December 31, 2022 was consistent with prior periods, which has typically averaged less than 5% for borrowings collateralized with Agency RMBS and CMBS and between 13-16% for borrowings collateralized with CMBS IO.
The collateral we post in excess of our repurchase agreement borrowing with any counterparty is also typically referred to by us as “equity at risk,” which represents the potential loss to the Company if the counterparty is unable or unwilling to return collateral securing the repurchase agreement borrowing at its maturity. The counterparties with whom we have the greatest amounts of equity at risk may vary significantly during any given period due to the short-term and generally uncommitted nature of the repurchase agreement borrowings. As of December 31, 2022, the Company had amounts outstanding under 24 different repurchase agreements and did not have more than 5% of equity at risk with any counterparty or group of related counterparties.
We have various financial and operating covenants in certain of our repurchase agreements, which we monitor and evaluate on an ongoing basis for compliance as well as for impacts these customary covenants may have on our operating and financing flexibility. Currently, we do not believe we are subject to any covenants that materially restrict our financing flexibility. We were in full compliance with our debt covenants as of December 31, 2022, and we are not aware of circumstances which could potentially result in our non-compliance in the foreseeable future.
Derivative Instruments
Derivative instruments we enter into may require us to post initial margin at inception and daily variation margin based on subsequent changes in their fair value. Daily variation margin requirements also entitle us to receive collateral from our counterparties if the value of amounts owed to us under the derivative agreement exceeds the
minimum margin requirement. The collateral posted as margin by us is typically in the form of cash. As of December 31, 2022, we had cash collateral posted to our counterparties of $117.8 million under these agreements.
Collateral requirements for interest rate derivative instruments are typically governed by the central clearing exchange and the associated futures commission merchant, which may establish margin requirements in excess of the clearing exchange. Collateral requirements for our TBA contracts are governed by the Mortgage-Backed Securities Division ("MBSD") of the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation and, if applicable, by our third-party brokerage agreements, which may establish margin levels in excess of the MBSD. Our TBA contracts, which are subject to master securities forward transaction agreements published by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association as well as supplemental terms and conditions with each counterparty, generally provide that valuations for our TBA contracts and any pledged collateral are to be obtained from a generally recognized source agreed to by both parties. However, in certain circumstances, our counterparties have the sole discretion to determine the value of the TBA contract and any pledged collateral. In such instances, our counterparties are required to act in good faith in making determinations of value. In the event of a margin call, we must generally provide additional collateral on the same business day.
Dividends
As a REIT, we are required to distribute to our shareholders amounts equal to at least 90% of our REIT taxable income for each taxable year after certain deductions. When declaring dividends, our Board of Directors considers the Company’s taxable income, the REIT distribution requirements of the Tax Code, financial performance measures, and maintaining compliance with dividend requirements of the Series C Preferred Stock, along with other factors that the Board of Directors may deem relevant from time to time.
Currently, we are primarily using U.S. Treasury futures to hedge the impact of increasing interest rates on our financing costs and fair value of our investments. Realized and unrealized gains (losses) on these derivative instruments are included in GAAP earnings, but are not included in EAD to common shareholders and are not factored into our repurchase agreement borrowing cost or net interest spread. Our net income for the year ended December 31, 2022 includes $690.7 million of realized gains from derivative instruments which were designated as interest rate hedges for tax purposes. Though these realized gains are included in our GAAP earnings, the majority will not be included in our REIT taxable income for 2022. As a result, our net deferred tax hedge gain has increased substantially to $695.2 million as of December 31, 2022 compared to $27.0 million as of December 31, 2021. The amortization of our net deferred tax hedge gain will be amortized into REIT taxable income over several years, which we expect to mitigate the impact of higher financing costs. We currently estimate our taxable income for 2023 will include approximately $71.3 million from amortization of deferred tax hedge gains. As of December 31, 2022, we also had $408.6 million in capital loss carryforwards, the majority of which expire in 2027, and NOL carryforwards of $9.3 million, which will expire over the next 3 years. Due to these amounts and other temporary and permanent differences between GAAP net income and REIT taxable income coupled with the degree of uncertainty about the trajectory of interest rates, we cannot reasonably estimate how much the deferred tax hedge gains to be recognized will impact our dividend declarations for next year, or in any year.
We generally fund our dividend distributions through our cash flows from operations. If we make dividend distributions in excess of our operating cash flows during the period, whether for purposes of meeting our REIT distribution requirements or other reasons, those distributions are generally funded either through our existing cash balances or through the return of principal from our investments (either through repayment or sale). Please refer to "Operating and Regulatory Structure" within Part I, Item 1, "Business" as well as Part I, Item 1A, “Risk Factors” of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional important information regarding dividends declared on our taxable income.
RECENT ACCOUNTING PRONOUNCEMENTS
There were no accounting pronouncements issued during the year ended December 31, 2022 that are expected to have a material impact on the Company’s financial condition or results of operations. Please refer to Note 1 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within Part I, Item 1 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information.
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CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
The discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations are based in large part upon our consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. The preparation of our consolidated financial statements requires management to make estimates, judgments and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities. We base these estimates and judgments on historical experience and assumptions believed to be reasonable under current facts and circumstances. Actual results, however, may differ from the estimated amounts we have recorded.
The following discussion provides information on our critical accounting policies that require management's most difficult, subjective or complex judgments, and which may result in materially different results under different assumptions and conditions. Please also refer to Note 1 of our Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements included within Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information related to significant accounting policies.
Fair Value Measurements. Our Agency MBS, as well as a majority of our non-Agency MBS, are substantially similar to securities that either are actively traded or have been recently traded in their respective market. Pricing services and brokers have access to observable market information through trading desks and various information services. MBS prices are based on prices we receive from third-party pricing services and broker quotes. To determine each security's valuation, the pricing service uses either a market approach or income approach, both of which rely on observable market data. The market approach uses prices and other relevant information that is generated by market transactions of identical or similar securities, while the income approach uses valuation techniques to convert estimated future cash flows to a discounted present value. Management reviews the assumptions and inputs utilized in the valuation techniques. Examples of these observable inputs and assumptions include market interest rates, credit spreads, cash flows and projected prepayment speeds, among other things.
In addition, management reviews the prices received for each security by comparing those prices to actual purchase and sale transactions, our internally modeled prices that are calculated based on observable market rates and credit spreads, and the prices that our borrowing counterparties use in financing our securities. If the price of a security is obtained from quoted prices for similar instruments or model-derived valuations whose inputs are observable, the security is classified as a level 2 security. The security is classified as a level 3 security if the inputs are unobservable, resulting in an estimate of fair value based primarily on management's judgment. Please refer to Note 6 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information on fair value measurements.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Certain written statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K that are not historical facts constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act, as amended, and Section 21E of the Exchange Act. Statements in this report addressing expectations, assumptions, beliefs, projections, future plans and strategies, future events, developments that we expect or anticipate will occur in the future, and future operating results, capital management, and dividend policy are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based upon management’s beliefs, assumptions, and expectations as of the date of this report regarding future events and operating performance, taking into account all information currently available to us, and are applicable only as of the date of this report. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by use of words such as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “plan,” “may,” “will,” “intend,” “should,” “could” or similar expressions. We caution readers not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, which are not historical facts and may be based on projections, assumptions, expectations, and anticipated events that do not materialize. Except as required by law, we are not obligated to, and do not intend to, update or revise any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
Forward-looking statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K may include, but are not limited to statements about:
•Our business and investment strategy including our ability to generate acceptable risk-adjusted returns and our target investment allocations, and our views on the future performance of MBS and other investments;
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•Our views on the macroeconomic environment, monetary and fiscal policy, and conditions in the investment, credit, interest rate and derivatives markets;
•Our views on inflation, market interest rates and market spreads;
•Our views on the effect of actual or proposed actions of the Federal Reserve or other central banks with respect to monetary policy (including the targeted Federal Funds Rate), and the potential impact of these actions on interest rates, borrowing costs, inflation or unemployment;
•The effect of regulatory initiatives of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, other financial regulators, and other central banks;
•Our financing strategy including our target leverage ratios, our use of TBA dollar roll transactions, and anticipated trends in financing costs including TBA dollar roll transaction costs, and our hedging strategy including changes to the derivative instruments to which we are a party, and changes to government regulation of hedging instruments and our use of these instruments;
•Our investment portfolio composition and target investments;
•Our investment portfolio performance, including the fair value, yields, and forecasted prepayment speeds of our investments;
•Our liquidity and ability to access financing, and the anticipated availability and cost of financing;
•Our capital stock activity including the impact of stock issuances and repurchases;
•The amount, timing, and funding of future dividends;
•Our use of our tax NOL carryforward and other tax loss carryforwards;
•Future competition for, and availability of, investments, financing and capital;
•Estimates of future interest expenses, including related to the Company’s repurchase agreements and derivative instruments;
•The status and effect of legislative reforms and regulatory rule-making or review processes, and the status of reform efforts and other business developments in the repurchase agreement financing market;
•Market, industry and economic trends, and how these trends and related economic data may impact the behavior of market participants and financial regulators;
•Uncertainties regarding the war between Russia and the Ukraine and the related impacts on macroeconomic conditions, including, among other things, interest rates;
•The financial position and credit worthiness of the depository institutions in which the Company’s MBS and cash deposits are held;
•The impact of applicable tax and accounting requirements on us including our tax treatment of derivative instruments such as TBAs, interest rate swaps, options and futures;
•Our future compliance with covenants in our master repurchase agreements, ISDA agreements, and debt covenants in our other contractual agreements;
•Our reliance on a single service provider of our trading, portfolio management, risk reporting and accounting services systems;
•The implementation in a timely and cost-effective manner of our operating platform, which includes trading, portfolio management, risk reporting, and accounting services systems, and the anticipated benefits thereof; and
•Possible future effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Forward-looking statements are inherently subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from historical results or from any results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Not all of these risks and other factors are known to us. New risks and uncertainties arise over time, and it is not possible to predict those events or how they may affect us. The projections, assumptions, expectations or beliefs upon which the forward-looking statements are based can also change as a result of these risks or other factors. If such a risk or other factor materializes in future periods, our business, financial condition, liquidity and results of operations may vary materially from those expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements.
While it is not possible to identify all factors that may cause actual results to differ from historical results or from any results expressed or implied by forward-looking statements, or that may cause our projections, assumptions, expectations or beliefs to change, some of those factors include the following:
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•the risks and uncertainties referenced in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, especially those incorporated by reference into Part II, Item 1A, “Risk Factors,” and in particular, adverse effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and any governmental or societal responses thereto;
•our ability to find suitable reinvestment opportunities;
•changes in domestic economic conditions;
•geopolitical events, such as terrorism, war or other military conflict, including increased uncertainty regarding the war between Russia and the Ukraine and the related impact on macroeconomic conditions as a result of such conflict;
•changes in interest rates and credit spreads, including the repricing of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities;
•our investment portfolio performance particularly as it relates to cash flow, prepayment rates and credit performance;
•the impact on markets and asset prices from changes in the Federal Reserve’s policies regarding the purchases of Agency RMBS, Agency CMBS, and U.S. Treasuries;
•actual or anticipated changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy or the monetary policy of other central banks;
•adverse reactions in U.S. financial markets related to actions of foreign central banks or the economic performance of foreign economies including in particular China, Japan, the European Union, and the United Kingdom;
•uncertainty concerning the long-term fiscal health and stability of the United States;
•the cost and availability of financing, including the future availability of financing due to changes to regulation of, and capital requirements imposed upon, financial institutions;
•the cost and availability of new equity capital;
•changes in our leverage and use of leverage;
•changes to our investment strategy, operating policies, dividend policy or asset allocations;
•the quality of performance of third-party service providers, including our sole third-party service provider for our critical operations and trade functions;
•the loss or unavailability of our third-party service provider’s service and technology that supports critical functions of our business related to our trading and borrowing activities due to outages, interruptions, or other failures;
•the level of defaults by borrowers on loans underlying MBS;
•changes in our industry;
•increased competition;
•changes in government regulations affecting our business;
•changes or volatility in the repurchase agreement financing markets and other credit markets;
•changes to the market for interest rate swaps and other derivative instruments, including changes to margin requirements on derivative instruments;
•uncertainty regarding continued government support of the U.S. financial system and U.S. housing and real estate markets, or to reform the U.S. housing finance system including the resolution of the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac;
•the composition of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve;
•the political environment in the U.S.;
•systems failures or cybersecurity incidents; and
•exposure to current and future claims and litigation.
FY 2021 10-K MD&A
SEC filing source: 0000826675-22-000006.
ITEM 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with our financial statements and the related notes included in Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data” in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of various factors including, but not limited to, those disclosed in Item 1A, “Risk Factors” elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K and in other documents filed with the SEC and otherwise publicly disclosed. Please refer to “Forward-Looking Statements” contained within this Item 7 for additional information. This discussion also contains non-GAAP financial measures, which are discussed in the section “Non-GAAP Financial Measures”.
For a complete description of our business including our operating policies, investment philosophy and strategy, financing and hedging strategies, and other important information, please refer to Item 1 of Part I of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW
Economic conditions continued to improve in 2021 from the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic as evidenced by an increase in real GDP in the U.S. to 5.7% versus a decline of 3.4% in 2020. Throughout 2021, Federal Reserve policy was highly accommodative, keeping short-term interest rates low and providing strong demand for risk assets, particularly Agency MBS, in order to aid economic recovery. The combination of the impact on supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy contributed to inflation levels well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0% throughout 2021. The Federal Reserve initially characterized these elevated levels as transitory and continued to provide substantial monetary stimulus. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the Federal Reserve signaled a reduction in in asset purchases, citing an improving economy, elevated inflation, and further improvement in the labor market. The improving economy combined with monetary policy and fiscal stimulus translated to a somewhat unpredictable interest rate environment during 2021, which saw a sharp steepening in the first quarter led by the mid-range and longer-term portion of the curve, followed by modest flattening through the second and third quarters as longer-term interest rates declined slightly, and further flattening led by the mid-range of the curve in the fourth quarter as markets began adjusting to shifts in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announced toward the end of 2021.
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The charts below show the highest and lowest U.S. Treasury and swap rates during the year ended December 31, 2021 as well as the rates as of December 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020:
Spreads on risk assets owned by the Company were volatile as well during 2021. While Agency RMBS, CMBS, and CMBS IO all experienced significant tightening in the first quarter, higher coupon Agency RMBS spreads widened in the second quarter while CMBS and CMBS IO spreads experienced further tightening during the same period. In the third quarter, Agency RMBS tightened again while the majority of CMBS and CMBS IO modestly widened. By the end of the fourth quarter after the Federal Reserve announced plans to begin tapering their purchases, spreads on most Agency assets widened again, almost to where they began the year. The table below shows the market spreads in basis points as of the end of each quarter in 2021 for certain investment types in our MBS portfolio:
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| Market Spreads (1) as of: | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment Type: | December 31, 2021 | September 30, 2021 | June 30, 2021 | March 31, 2021 | December 31, 2020 | |||||||||||
| Agency RMBS: (2) | ||||||||||||||||
| 2.0% coupon | (6) | (10) | (6) | (20) | (1) | |||||||||||
| 2.5% coupon | 5 | (4) | 1 | (16) | (2) | |||||||||||
| 4.0% coupon | 44 | 39 | 54 | 11 | 51 | |||||||||||
| Agency DUS (Agency CMBS) (3) | 31 | 26 | 18 | 22 | 36 | |||||||||||
| Freddie K AAA IO (Agency CMBS IO) (3) | 105 | 65 | 65 | 95 | 140 | |||||||||||
| AAA CMBS IO (Non-Agency CMBS IO) (3) | 112 | 108 | 105 | 130 | 165 |
(1)Negative amounts represent spreads below the benchmark risk free rate and positive amounts represent spreads above the benchmark risk free rate.
(2)Option adjusted spreads are based on Company estimates using third-party models and market data.
(3)Data represents the spread to swap rate on newly issued securities and is sourced from JP Morgan.
Our 2021 Performance
To manage through the interest rate environment experienced throughout 2021, we focused on actively managing our investment portfolio and hedge position, reducing leverage, and raising capital in preparation for opportunities to expand our balance sheet in anticipation of the Federal Reserve ending its purchases of Agency RMBS and U.S. Treasuries. Active portfolio management allowed us to take advantage of volatility in credit spreads during 2021 as we realized gains by selling MBS when spreads tightened and reinvested the sale proceeds into lower coupon MBS at lower premiums when spreads widened. We shifted our portfolio allocation further into lower coupon Agency RMBS and TBA securities because lower coupons are typically impacted less by duration extension and credit spread widening relative to higher coupon assets in an increasing interest rate environment. We increased our investment in TBA securities during most of 2021 because they allowed us more flexibility in managing leverage due to their higher liquidity relative to specified pools and also offer better risk-adjusted returns due to lower financing costs (implied through the use of dollar roll transactions) versus the repurchase agreement borrowings we typically use to finance purchases of specified pools.
Hedge selection and positioning also played an important role in managing our interest rate risk throughout 2021. The loss in fair value of our investment portfolio (including TBA securities), net of gains from our interest rate hedges was $(0.2) million. We protected our portfolio from duration risk in the increasing interest rate environment by significantly increasing our hedge position over the course of the year, ending 2021 with a notional of $4.4 billion in primarily short positions in ten-year U.S. Treasury futures. For the year ended December 31, 2021, total economic return to our common shareholders(1) was $0.47 per common share, or 2.5% of beginning book value. While book value per common share declined $(1.09) during the year, we believe the volatility in interest rates noted above could have led to larger losses without our active portfolio management and hedge positioning.
During 2021, we continuously worked to raise capital through at-the-market and other public offerings, ending the year with additional common equity capital of almost $237.0 million, net of issuance costs. Our capital raising contributed significantly to our ability to maintain a high level of liquidity and lower leverage. As of December 31, 2021, we held approximately $533.1 million in cash and unencumbered Agency MBS, and our leverage, including TBA securities at cost, was 5.7 times shareholders’ equity.
Current Outlook
We believe markets are transitioning to a more favorable environment to add higher yielding assets to our investment portfolio. As the Federal Reserve reduces its purchases of Agency RMBS and tightens monetary policy by
(1) Total economic return to common shareholders is comprised of dividends declared of $1.56 per common share less the decline in book value of $(1.09) per common share during the year ended December 31, 2021.
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raising the Federal Funds Rate, we expect higher risk-adjusted returns on our target investments as private capital replaces the Federal Reserve as the predominant buyers in the market, which we believe will more than offset our borrowing costs which are likely to increase in 2022. While we also expect credit spreads will widen further, we believe we are well positioned to navigate the book value risk to wider spreads due to our low leverage, our hedge positioning, and our lower coupon Agency RMBS. As mortgage rates continue to increase, and especially as the Federal Reserve exits its buying program, we expect the supply of higher coupons will increase and bear the brunt of future spread widening while lower coupon MBS will experience limited spread widening due to its seasoning and lack of new supply. As the supply of higher coupons increase and prices fall, we believe we will be able to take advantage of opportunities to acquire these assets at better risk-adjusted returns because we have excess capital to deploy and room to increase leverage.
We remain cautious, however, as the pace and scope of monetary policy tightening in 2022 in the U.S. and abroad is highly uncertain, and we expect significant moves in the shape of the yield curve and the level of yields across the curve. Furthermore, the global economy continues to evolve to a post-pandemic environment with rising complexities across economic, social and political factors, including, but not limited to:
•high and unsustainable debt levels which pose a risk to economic growth;
•elevated global inflation levels, reflecting pandemic supply and demand dynamics;
•uncertainties regarding ongoing hostilities between Russia and the Ukraine and the related impacts on macroeconomic conditions, including, among other things, interest rates;
•global labor market imbalances, exposing widening gaps in skills, education, healthcare, and digital access;
•shifting demographics, human conflict, and climate change; and
•fast-paced changes in technology and increased cyber-risk.
In summary, our decisions regarding leverage targets and the pace at which we expand our investment portfolio in the near term will depend on many factors including, but not limited to, the pace of tapering of purchases by the Federal Reserve, the pace at which the Federal Reserve reduces its balance sheet and the resulting impact on credit spread widening for Agency RMBS, the shape of the yield curve, and the level of interest rates, including the rate at which the Federal Reserve decides to increase the Federal Funds target rate. We remain flexible, patient, consistent, and disciplined in our approach to investment, financing, and hedging decisions as we continue to seek to generate above average returns for our shareholders.
FINANCIAL CONDITION
Investment Portfolio
As of December 31, 2021, our investment portfolio is predominantly comprised of lower coupon Agency RMBS and TBA securities. The following chart compares the composition of our MBS portfolio including TBA securities as of the dates indicated:
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(1) Includes TBA securities at their implied market value, as if settled, of $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion as of the periods indicated, respectively. TBA securities are recorded within “derivative assets (liabilities)” on our consolidated balance sheet at their net carrying value, which represents the difference between the implied market value and the implied cost basis of the TBA security as of the date indicated.
RMBS. During the year ended December 31, 2021, we have remained invested in primarily lower coupon securities which limited our exposure to duration extension and credit spread widening as interest rates rose throughout the year. Furthermore, most lower coupon Agency RMBS issued during the year were purchased by the Federal Reserve as part of their open market purchase operations, further limiting the risk of wider spreads. We believe lower coupon Agency RMBS will continue to provide higher risk-adjusted returns due to their seasoning, the lack of new supply in the higher rate environment, and the large ownership position of the Federal Reserve. In addition, our lower coupon investments also mitigate the risk of loss of premiums due to their lower cost basis and slower prepayment speeds relative to higher coupon assets.
We continued investing in TBA securities during the year ended December 31, 2021 because implied financing rates for dollar roll transactions continued to be lower than the financing rates for repurchase agreement borrowings we typically use to finance specified pools. Because TBA securities have higher relative liquidity than specified pools, these investments also allowed more flexibility to manage our capital allocation and leverage.
The following tables compare our fixed-rate Agency RMBS investments including TBA dollar roll positions as of the dates indicated:
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| December 31, 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Par/Notional | Amortized Cost/Implied Cost Basis (1)(3) | Fair Value (2)(3) | Weighted Average | |||||||||||||||||
| Coupon | Loan Age(in months)(4) | 3 MonthCPR (4)(5) | Estimated Duration (6) | |||||||||||||||||
| 30-year fixed-rate: | ($s in thousands) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2.0% | $ | 1,311,069 | $ | 1,330,353 | $ | 1,312,190 | 11 | 8.0 | % | 6.69 | ||||||||||
| 2.5% | 1,165,810 | 1,215,841 | 1,199,092 | 15 | 11.3 | % | 5.83 | |||||||||||||
| 4.0% | 162,868 | 167,713 | 175,493 | 45 | 34.1 | % | 3.09 | |||||||||||||
| TBA 2.0% | 965,000 | 957,600 | 961,080 | n/a | n/a | 6.54 | ||||||||||||||
| TBA 2.5% | 190,000 | 193,563 | 193,585 | n/a | n/a | 5.23 | ||||||||||||||
| 15-year fixed-rate: | ||||||||||||||||||||
| TBA 1.5% | 375,000 | 375,259 | 376,523 | n/a | n/a | 4.58 | ||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 4,169,747 | $ | 4,240,329 | $ | 4,217,963 | 15 | 11.2 | % | 6.01 |
| December 31, 2020 | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Par/Notional | Amortized Cost/Implied Cost Basis (1)(3) | Fair Value (2)(3) | Weighted Average | ||||||||||||||||
| Coupon | Loan Age(in months)(4) | 3 MonthCPR (4)(5) | Estimated Duration (6) | ||||||||||||||||
| 30-year fixed-rate: | ($s in thousands) | ||||||||||||||||||
| TBA 2.0% | $ | 765,000 | $ | 789,945 | $ | 792,957 | n/a | n/a | 4.89 | ||||||||||
| 2.0% | 620,238 | 635,096 | 646,744 | 8 | 7.7 | % | 5.31 | ||||||||||||
| 2.5% | 938,334 | 973,116 | 995,889 | 10 | 13.5 | % | 3.53 | ||||||||||||
| 4.0% | 280,474 | 288,831 | 303,758 | 33 | 46.8 | % | 2.48 | ||||||||||||
| 15-year fixed-rate: | |||||||||||||||||||
| TBA 1.5% | 250,000 | 255,068 | 257,305 | n/a | n/a | 4.73 | |||||||||||||
| TBA 2.0% | 500,000 | 519,047 | 522,687 | n/a | n/a | 3.09 | |||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 3,354,046 | $ | 3,461,103 | $ | 3,519,340 | 13 | 17.1 | % | 4.10 |
(1) Implied cost basis of TBAs represents the forward price to be paid for the underlying Agency MBS.
(2) Fair value of TBAs is the implied market value of the underlying Agency security as of the end of the period.
(3) TBAs are included on the consolidated balance sheet within “derivative assets/liabilities” at their net carrying value which is the difference between their implied market value and implied cost basis. Please refer to Note 6 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.
(4) TBAs are excluded from this calculation as they do not have a defined weighted-average loan balance or age until mortgages have been assigned to the pool.
(5) Constant prepayment rate (“CPR”) represents the 3-month CPR of Agency RMBS held as of date indicated. Securities with no prepayment history are excluded from this calculation.
(6) Duration measures the sensitivity of a security's price to the change in interest rates and represents the percent change in price of a security for a 100-basis point increase in interest rates. We calculate duration using third-party financial models and empirical data. Different models and methodologies can produce different estimates of duration for the same securities.
CMBS.
We sold the majority of our Agency CMBS in 2020 as risk spreads declined sharply, leading to higher prices and diminishing returns on this type of investment. In 2021, we did not reinvest in newer issue CMBS because we believed the risk-adjusted return profile to be less favorable relative to Agency RMBS. The CMBS remaining in our investment portfolio consist mainly of seasoned investments with a higher probability of appreciation in the underlying collateral versus newer issue bonds. The following table presents information about our CMBS investments by year of origination as of the dates indicated:
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| December 31, 2021 | December 31, 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($s in thousands) | Par Value | Amortized Cost | Months to Estimated Maturity(1) | WAC(2) | Par Value | Amortized Cost | Months to Estimated Maturity(1) | WAC(2) | |||||||||||||||||
| Year of Origination: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Prior to 2009 (3) | $ | 5,581 | $ | 5,464 | 12 | 5.95 | % | $ | 9,132 | $ | 8,964 | 36 | 5.69 | % | |||||||||||
| 2009 to 2012 | 9,895 | 10,310 | 34 | 5.63 | % | 11,424 | 12,085 | 65 | 5.56 | % | |||||||||||||||
| 2013 to 2014 | 8,988 | 9,105 | 37 | 3.58 | % | 9,865 | 10,033 | 44 | 3.61 | % | |||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 100,598 | 101,717 | 56 | 2.94 | % | 155,760 | 157,137 | 69 | 2.85 | % | |||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 30,808 | 31,135 | 80 | 3.18 | % | 30,907 | 31,294 | 91 | 3.18 | % | |||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 19,702 | 19,964 | 140 | 3.17 | % | 19,702 | 19,988 | 151 | 3.12 | % | |||||||||||||||
| $ | 175,572 | $ | 177,695 | 66 | 3.29 | % | $ | 236,790 | $ | 239,501 | 77 | 3.19 | % |
(1) Months to estimated maturity is an average weighted by the amortized cost of the investment.
(2) The weighted average coupon (“WAC”) is the gross interest rate of the security weighted by the outstanding principal balance.
(3) The Company has one non-Agency CMBS originally issued in 1998 with an amortized cost and fair value of less than $1.0 million as of December 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020.
CMBS IO.
The following tables present our CMBS IO investments by year of origination as of the dates indicated:
| December 31, 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agency | Non-Agency | |||||||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Amortized Cost | Fair Value | Remaining WAL (1) | Amortized Cost | Fair Value | Remaining WAL (1) | ||||||||||||||
| Year of Origination: | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010-2012 | $ | 2,120 | $ | 2,311 | 3 | $ | 454 | $ | 480 | 3 | ||||||||||
| 2013 | 9,627 | 11,554 | 7 | 5,562 | 5,668 | 224 | ||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 16,768 | 17,231 | 15 | 33,630 | 34,123 | 72 | ||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 22,558 | 23,571 | 20 | 39,407 | 40,408 | 20 | ||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 18,186 | 18,901 | 24 | 13,405 | 13,430 | 16 | ||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22,308 | 23,296 | 36 | 6,216 | 6,452 | 28 | ||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 3,408 | 3,687 | 55 | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 79,858 | 83,656 | 53 | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| 2020 | 2,847 | 2,873 | 45 | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21,843 | 21,778 | 61 | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| $ | 199,523 | $ | 208,858 | 40 | $ | 98,674 | $ | 100,561 | 50 |
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| December 31, 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agency | Non-Agency | |||||||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Amortized Cost | Fair Value | Remaining WAL (1) | Amortized Cost | Fair Value | Remaining WAL (1) | ||||||||||||||
| Year of Origination: | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010-2012 | $ | 12,037 | $ | 11,932 | 9 | $ | 3,237 | $ | 3,263 | 8 | ||||||||||
| 2013 | 22,367 | 24,165 | 13 | 10,875 | 10,912 | 15 | ||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 24,841 | 25,749 | 22 | 50,777 | 51,175 | 20 | ||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 31,875 | 33,404 | 26 | 53,176 | 54,020 | 27 | ||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 23,072 | 24,203 | 31 | 16,705 | 16,906 | 16 | ||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 26,493 | 27,952 | 42 | 7,733 | 7,808 | 34 | ||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 3,792 | 3,983 | 62 | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 88,757 | 91,303 | 60 | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| 2020 | 3,203 | 3,264 | 53 | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||
| $ | 236,437 | $ | 245,955 | 39 | $ | 142,503 | $ | 144,084 | 24 |
(1) Remaining weighted average life (“WAL”) represents an estimate of the number of months of contractual cash flows remaining for the investments by year of origination.
Non-Agency-issued securities are generally expected to have a higher risk of default than Agency CMBS IO. We mitigate this risk by investing in senior tranches of mostly AAA-rated securities where we have evaluated the credit profile of the underlying loan pool and can monitor credit performance. All of our non-Agency CMBS IO were originated prior to 2018, the majority of which we believe have had underlying property value appreciation. Non-Agency issued CMBS IO are backed by loans secured by a number of different property types, which are shown in the table below as of December 31, 2021:
| December 31, 2021 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($s in thousands) | Fair Value | Percentage of Portfolio | |||||
| Property Type: | |||||||
| Retail | $ | 28,293 | 28.1 | % | |||
| Office | 22,514 | 22.4 | % | ||||
| Multifamily | 15,957 | 15.9 | % | ||||
| Hotel | 13,466 | 13.4 | % | ||||
| Mixed use | 7,156 | 7.1 | % | ||||
| Other (1) | 13,175 | 13.1 | % | ||||
| Total non-Agency CMBS IO | $ | 100,561 | 100.0 | % |
(1) Other property types collateralizing non-Agency CMBS IO do not comprise more than 5% individually.
Because effective yields on CMBS IO securities are dependent upon the performance of the underlying loans, our return on these investments may be negatively impacted if the loans default, resulting in foreclosures or liquidations of the loan collateral. When the economic impacts of COVID-19 began in 2020, servicers reported an increase in delinquencies on loans underlying our non-Agency CMBS IO and responded by taking loss mitigation actions, such as loan forbearance or allowing the borrower to make loan payments using replacement reserve or similar property related funds. Most of the increases in delinquencies were in the retail and hotel sectors with a nominal impact on cash flows and yields on the securities. Considering the characteristics of our non-Agency CMBS IO, such as seasoning, loan-to-value ratio, and geographic location of the collateral, as well as the actions taken by servicers to
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work with borrowers through various relief measures, we have not seen evidence of and do not currently expect a material adverse effect on our future cash flows for non-Agency CMBS IO. In addition, more recently, our servicers have begun reporting lower delinquencies, and they are now more in line with the level we experienced prior to the onset of the economic impacts of the pandemic. However, the ultimate impact of COVID-19 on the global economy and on the loans underlying any of our securities remains uncertain and cannot be predicted at this time.
Repurchase Agreements
We maintained lower leverage throughout 2021 in order to reduce risk given volatility in the market and the lower marginal returns available due to credit spread tightening. As such, we partially financed investments we purchased during 2021 with repurchase agreement borrowings, which increased $0.4 million, or approximately 17%, to $2.8 billion as of December 31, 2021 in conjunction with a portion of the proceeds received from common equity capital we raised during the year. During the fourth quarter of 2021, we worked with our repurchase agreement counterparties to extend the maturities of our borrowings further into 2022 in order to lock in low financing rates over a longer term in light of possible near term increases in the Federal Funds Rate by the Federal Reserve. Please refer to Note 5 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within this Annual Report on Form 10-K as well as “Results of Operations” and “Liquidity and Capital Resources” contained within this Item 7 for additional information relating to our repurchase agreement borrowings.
Derivative Assets and Liabilities
We use derivative instruments to economically hedge our exposure to adverse changes in interest rates resulting from our ownership of primarily fixed-rate investments financed with short-term repurchase agreements. We regularly monitor and frequently adjust our hedging portfolio in response to many factors including, but not limited to, changes in our investment portfolio as well as our expectation of future interest rates, including the absolute level of rates and the slope of the yield curve versus market expectations.
During 2021, we increased our short positions in U.S. Treasury futures in the 10-year portion of the curve in order to protect our portfolio from duration risk in the increasing interest rate environment. We significantly reduced our notional balance of interest rate swaptions and removed options on U.S. Treasury futures from our hedging portfolio because our lower coupon assets have less convexity risk to hedge in a rising interest rate environment. Please refer to Note 6 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for details on our interest rate derivative instruments as well as “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk” in Part II, Item 7A of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The discussion below includes both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that management utilizes in its analysis of financial and operating performance. Please read the section “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this section for additional important information about these financial measures.
Year Ended December 31, 2021 Compared to the Year Ended December 31, 2020
Net Interest Income
Net interest income declined $(9.5) million for the year ended December 31, 2021 compared to the year ended December 31, 2020 because we held a smaller average balance of lower yielding investments during 2021 compared to 2020. During the first half of 2020, we sold significant portions of Agency RMBS and CMBS in order to realize aggregate gains of $277.9 million, which increased our liquidity, and in order to reduce our leverage as markets experienced extreme volatility during this period primarily as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since that time, we have only partially replaced these assets as we have focused on keeping our leverage at the low end of our target range due to the lower risk-adjusted returns available in the market.
During 2021, we increased our investment in TBA securities given the more favorable return profile versus Agency RMBS and because they offer greater flexibility in managing leverage due to their higher liquidity relative to
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specified pools of MBS. Investing in TBA securities has also reduced our average balance of repurchase agreement borrowings, and thereby our interest expense, for the year ended December 31, 2021 compared to the year ended December 31, 2020 as TBA securities are financed implicitly through dollar roll transactions. In addition, the decline in our interest expense for the year ended December 31, 2021 compared to the year ended December 31, 2020 was also due to our lower repurchase agreement financing cost, which has been lower primarily as a result of the Federal Reserve maintaining the Federal Funds Rate in a range of 0-0.25%, resulting in a substantial reduction in our cost of funds during this period. We expect our borrowing costs to increase in 2022 because of the Federal Reserve’s recent announcement that it expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the Federal Funds Rate and because the markets have begun pricing in four to five rate hikes. As discussed above in “Executive Overview”, we also expect that we will be able to add higher-yielding assets to our balance sheet in the near-term, which will serve to offset a rise in borrowing costs.
The following table presents information about our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities and their performance for the periods indicated:
| Year Ended | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Interest Income/Expense | Average Balance (1)(2) | Effective Yield/Cost ofFunds (3)(4) | Interest Income/Expense | Average Balance (1)(2) | Effective Yield/Cost ofFunds (3)(4) | |||||||||||||||
| Interest-earning assets: | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Agency RMBS | $ | 36,017 | $ | 2,145,989 | 1.68 | % | $ | 50,546 | $ | 2,142,690 | 2.36 | % | |||||||||
| Agency CMBS | 7,683 | 210,335 | 3.62 | % | 25,292 | 856,869 | 2.91 | % | |||||||||||||
| CMBS IO (5) | 15,792 | 330,420 | 4.78 | % | 19,361 | 433,863 | 4.46 | % | |||||||||||||
| Non-Agency MBS and other investments (6) | 559 | 6,329 | 8.30 | % | 1,269 | 9,125 | 8.64 | % | |||||||||||||
| Total: | $ | 60,051 | $ | 2,693,073 | 2.23 | % | $ | 96,468 | $ | 3,442,547 | 2.78 | % | |||||||||
| Interest-bearing liabilities: (7) | (5,671) | 2,387,764 | (0.23) | % | (32,615) | $ | 3,190,726 | (1.01) | % | ||||||||||||
| Net interest income/net interest spread | $ | 54,380 | 2.00 | % | $ | 63,853 | 1.77 | % |
(1) Average balance for assets is calculated as a simple average of the daily amortized cost and excludes unrealized gains and losses as well as securities pending settlement if applicable.
(2) Average balance for liabilities is calculated as a simple average of the daily borrowings outstanding during the period.
(3) Effective yield is calculated by dividing the sum of gross interest income and scheduled premium amortization/discount accretion (both of which are annualized for any reporting period less than 12 months) and prepayment compensation and premium amortization/discount accretion adjustments (collectively, "prepayment adjustments"), which are not annualized, by the average balance of asset type outstanding during the reporting period.
(4) Cost of funds is calculated by dividing annualized interest expense by the total average balance of borrowings outstanding during the period with an assumption of 360 days in a year.
(5) Includes Agency and non-Agency issued securities.
(6) Interest income for non-Agency and other investments for the year ended December 31, 2020 includes $0.5 million of interest income from cash and cash equivalents. Average balance and effective yield for non-Agency MBS and other investments excludes cash and cash equivalents.
(7) Interest-bearing liabilities consist primarily of repurchase agreement borrowings.
Net interest spread increased 23 basis points for the year ended December 31, 2021 compared to the year ended December 31, 2020 due to the significant decline in our repurchase agreement borrowing costs, which more than offset the decline in the effective yield we earned on our investment portfolio. Effective yield on our investment portfolio for the year ended December 31, 2021 declined 55 basis points because we reallocated a portion of our
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portfolio from 4.0% coupons to 2.0% and 2.5% coupons in order to mitigate prepayment risk and to minimize losses in book value due to change in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the increasing interest rate environment.
The following table presents the estimated impact on our net interest income due to changes in effective yield/cost of funds (“rate”) and changes in average balance (“volume”) of our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities for the periods indicated:
| Year Ended | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2021 Compared to December 31, 2020 | ||||||||||||||
| Increase (Decrease) Due to Change In | Total Change in Interest Income/Expense | |||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Rate | Volume | Prepayment Adjustments (1) | |||||||||||
| Interest-earning assets: | ||||||||||||||
| Agency RMBS | $ | (14,612) | $ | 83 | $ | — | $ | (14,529) | ||||||
| Agency CMBS | (37) | (18,871) | 1,299 | (17,609) | ||||||||||
| CMBS IO (2) | 1,235 | (4,060) | (744) | (3,569) | ||||||||||
| Non-Agency MBS and other investments | (98) | (572) | (40) | (710) | ||||||||||
| Change in interest income | $ | (13,512) | $ | (23,420) | $ | 515 | $ | (36,417) | ||||||
| Change in interest expense | (18,832) | (8,112) | — | (26,944) | ||||||||||
| Total net change in net interest income | $ | 5,320 | $ | (15,308) | $ | 515 | $ | (9,473) |
(1) Prepayment adjustments represent effective interest amortization adjustments related to changes in actual prepayment speeds and prepayment compensation, net of amortization adjustments for CMBS and CMBS IO.
(2) Includes Agency and non-Agency issued securities.
Adjusted Net Interest Income
Please refer to the section “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for additional information about this non-GAAP financial measure used by management to evaluate results of operations.
| Year Ended | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, | |||||||||||||
| 2021 | 2020 | ||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Amount | Rate | Amount | Rate | |||||||||
| Net interest income | $ | 54,380 | 2.00 | % | $ | 63,853 | 1.77 | % | |||||
| Add: TBA drop income (1) (2) | 43,512 | 0.10 | % | 15,067 | 0.05 | % | |||||||
| Add: net periodic interest benefit (3) | — | — | % | 1,579 | 0.05 | % | |||||||
| Adjusted net interest income | $ | 97,892 | 2.10 | % | $ | 80,499 | 1.87 | % |
(1) TBA drop income is calculated by multiplying the notional amount of the TBA dollar roll positions by the difference in price between two TBA securities with the same terms but different settlement dates.
(2) The impact of TBA drop income on adjusted net interest spread includes the implied average funding cost of TBA dollar roll transactions during the periods indicated.
(3) Amount represents net periodic interest cost/benefit of effective interest rate swaps outstanding during the period and excludes realized and unrealized gains and losses from changes in fair value of derivatives.
The increase of $17.4 million in adjusted net interest income for the year ended December 31, 2021 compared to the year ended December 31, 2020 is due to our increased investment in TBA securities at lower implied funding costs relative to the year ended December 31, 2020, which resulted in an increase in TBA drop income of $28.4 million. This increase in TBA drop income offset the decline of $(9.5) million in net interest income and $(1.6) million in net periodic interest benefit from interest rate swaps.
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When the financing cost imputed in TBA dollar roll transactions is lower than the average repurchase agreement financing rate, this is commonly referred to in the industry as TBA dollar rolls “trading special” or “dollar roll specialness.” Dollar roll specialness happens primarily as a result of supply/demand imbalances or volatility in market prepayment expectations, and in management’s view, the pace of bank and Federal Reserve purchases resulted in implied financing costs dropping below 0% during 2021. Due to the recent shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, we expect TBA dollar roll specialness will likely decline in 2022, negatively impacting TBA drop income.
Changes in Fair Value of Investments
Changes in the fair value of our investments result in realized and unrealized gains and losses. The fair value of our investments is impacted by a number of factors including, among others, market volatility, changes in credit spreads, spot and forward interest rates, actual and anticipated prepayments, and supply/demand dynamics which are in turn impacted by, among other things, interest rates, capital flows, economic conditions, and government policies and actions, such as purchases and sales by the Federal Reserve.
Effective January 1, 2021, the Company elected the fair value option for all MBS purchased on or after that date with changes in fair value reported in net income as “unrealized gain (loss) on investments, net” until the security is sold or matures. Changes in fair value for MBS purchased prior to that date are recorded within “other comprehensive income (loss).” The following table provides details on unrealized gains and losses on our investments held in our portfolio for the periods indicated:
| Year Ended | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2021 | ||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Unrealized Gain (Loss) on Investments, Net | Other Comprehensive Income (Loss) | Total Change in Fair Value | |||||||
| Agency RMBS | $ | (14,917) | $ | (61,563) | $ | (76,480) | ||||
| Agency CMBS | — | (11,961) | (11,961) | |||||||
| CMBS IO | (65) | (308) | (373) | |||||||
| Non-Agency other | — | 300 | 300 | |||||||
| Mortgage loans held for investment | 130 | — | 130 | |||||||
| Other | 38 | — | 38 | |||||||
| $ | (14,814) | $ | (73,532) | $ | (88,346) | |||||
| Year Ended | ||||||||||
| December 31, 2020 | ||||||||||
| Unrealized Gain (Loss) on Investments, Net | Other Comprehensive Income (Loss) | Total Change in Fair Value | ||||||||
| Agency RMBS | $ | — | $ | (19,270) | $ | (19,270) | ||||
| Agency CMBS | — | (74,161) | (74,161) | |||||||
| CMBS IO | — | 203 | 203 | |||||||
| Non-Agency other | — | (317) | (317) | |||||||
| Mortgage loans held for investment | 75 | — | 75 | |||||||
| Other | (55) | $ | — | (55) | ||||||
| $ | 20 | $ | (93,545) | $ | (93,525) |
As longer-term interest rates increased during the year ended December 31, 2021, the fair value of the majority of our investments declined. Because we use derivatives to hedge the impact of changing interest rates on our investment portfolio (including TBA securities), we evaluate our results by comparing how much the gain (loss) on our MBS and TBAs is offset by the gain (loss) on our interest rate hedges, which are discussed below under “Gain
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(Loss) on Derivative Instruments, Net”.
Other comprehensive loss of $(93.5) million for the year ended December 31, 2020 was due to the reclassification of $308.1 million in realized gains on the sale of investments during the year which were reclassified to net income in accordance with GAAP. The gross change in fair value of the Company’s MBS for the year ended December 31, 2020 was $214.5 million and resulted primarily from credit spread tightening for Agency RMBS and CMBS.
Our sales during the year ended December 31, 2020 were significantly higher than in 2021. When interest rates rallied early to mid-March of 2020 as the markets initially responded to the COVID-19 pandemic, we chose to realize gains on our Agency RMBS as asset prices began to fall and we chose to reduce our balance sheet leverage. We used a portion of those proceeds to re-invest in Agency CMBS, the majority of which we sold in subsequent quarters in order to realize gains as asset premiums increased due to spread tightening and to shift our portfolio allocation back to predominantly Agency RMBS as the market stabilized. None of our investment sales during the years ended December 31, 2021 or December 31, 2020 were made under duress.
The following table provides information related to our realized gains on sales of investments, net for the periods indicated:
| Year Ended | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2021 | December 31, 2020 | |||||||||||||
| ($s in thousands) | Amortized cost sold | Realized Gain | Amortized cost sold | Realized Gain | ||||||||||
| Agency RMBS-designated as AFS | $ | 283,471 | $ | 3,938 | $ | 2,312,343 | $ | 82,689 | ||||||
| Agency CMBS-designated as AFS | 35,106 | 2,767 | 2,021,878 | 225,395 | ||||||||||
| Total | $ | 318,577 | $ | 6,705 | $ | 4,334,221 | $ | 308,084 |
Gain (Loss) on Derivative Instruments, Net
Gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net is comprised of unrealized gains and losses due to changes in the fair value of derivative instruments we hold during the period as well as realized gains and losses on derivatives that we terminate or that expire or mature during the period. Results in any given reporting period are generally not comparable to results of another because we frequently adjust our hedging position in any given period and because the fair value of derivative instruments are impacted by market interest rates which continuously change from one period to the next. Because we use derivatives to hedge the impact of changing interest rates on our investment portfolio (including TBA securities), we evaluate our results by comparing how much the gain (loss) on our interest rate hedges offset the gain (loss) on our MBS and TBAs for any given period.
The following table provides information on our financial instruments accounted for as derivative instruments for the periods indicated:
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| Year Ended | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($s in thousands) | December 31, 2021 | December 31, 2020 | ||||
| Change in fair value of interest rate hedges: | ||||||
| Interest rate swaps (1) | $ | — | $ | (182,942) | ||
| Interest rate swaptions | 40,330 | 680 | ||||
| U.S. Treasury futures | 61,215 | (15,046) | ||||
| Options on U.S. Treasury futures | (2,141) | (26,186) | ||||
| Total gain (loss) on interest rate hedges | 99,404 | (223,494) | ||||
| TBA dollar roll positions: | ||||||
| Change in fair value (2) | (61,499) | 36,137 | ||||
| TBA drop income (3) | 43,512 | 15,067 | ||||
| Total TBA dollar roll (loss) gain, net | (17,987) | 51,204 | ||||
| Total gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net | $ | 81,417 | $ | (172,290) |
(1)Amount for interest rate swaps for the year ended December 31, 2020 is net of periodic interest benefit of $1.6 million.
(2)Changes in fair value for TBA dollar roll positions include unrealized gains (losses) from open TBA contracts and realized gains (losses) on paired off or terminated positions.
(3)TBA drop income represents a portion of the change in fair value and is calculated by multiplying the notional amount of the net TBA dollar roll positions by the difference in price between two TBA securities with the same terms but different settlement dates.
As interest rates increased during 2021, we increased our hedge position by adding U.S. Treasury futures to hedge duration risk on our lower coupon assets. We reduced our notional balance of interest rate swaptions and did not replace our options on U.S. Treasury futures upon expiration because we believe our lower coupon assets have less convexity to hedge relative to higher coupon assets in the current environment.
For the year ended December 31, 2020, the majority of our net loss on derivative instruments was comprised of realized losses on interest rate swaps, which we either terminated or chose not to replace upon expiration. The decision to terminate or not replace these hedging instruments was because margin requirements increased substantially as a result of the market disruption that occurred at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, and as interest rates rallied, we sold a significant portion of our assets in order to monetize gains and to avoid margin calls when asset prices began to fall.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses increased $3.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2021 compared to the year ended December 31, 2020 due primarily to higher bonus accruals and expenses related to the ongoing implementation of a new investment accounting system as well as new trading and portfolio management systems as part of a large-scale project to streamline and enhance the Company’s operating platform.
Please refer to Dynex's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020 for the discussion of results of operations for the year ended December 31, 2020 compared to the year ended December 31, 2019, which is incorporated by reference herein.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
In addition to the Company's operating results presented in accordance with GAAP, management uses certain non-GAAP financial measures to evaluate results of the Company, which include the following: earnings available for distribution (“EAD”) to common shareholders (formerly core net operating income to common shareholders) (including per common share), adjusted net interest income and the related metric adjusted net interest spread. Because these measures are used in the Company's internal analysis of financial and operating performance, management believes that they provide greater transparency to our investors of management's view of our economic performance.
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Management also believes the presentation of these measures, when analyzed in conjunction with the Company's GAAP operating results, allows investors to more effectively evaluate and compare the performance of the Company to that of its peers, although the Company's presentation of its non-GAAP measures may not be comparable to other similarly-titled measures of other companies. Reconciliations of EAD to common shareholders and adjusted net interest income to the related GAAP financial measures are provided below and within “Results of Operations”.
In September 2021, the Company renamed its non-GAAP measure "core net operating income to common shareholders" to "EAD to common shareholders" in order to clarify what the measure represents. The adjustments made to reconcile "comprehensive income (loss) to common shareholders" to "EAD to common shareholders" are identical to the adjustments previously used to calculate "core net operating income to common shareholders." EAD to common shareholders is a non-GAAP metric used by the Company as a measure of the investment portfolio’s return based on the effective yield of its investments, net of financing costs and other normal recurring operating income/expenses, net. It is one of several factors our Board of Directors considers in determining the appropriate level of distributions to common shareholders. In addition to the non-GAAP reconciliation set forth below, which derives EAD to common shareholders from GAAP comprehensive income (loss) to common shareholders, EAD to common shareholders can also be determined by adjusting net interest income to include interest rate swap periodic interest benefit/cost, drop income on TBA securities, general and administrative expenses, preferred dividends, and other normal recurring operating income or expense. Drop income generated by TBA dollar roll positions, which is included in "gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net" on the Company's consolidated statements of comprehensive income, is included in EAD to common shareholders and in adjusted net interest income because management views drop income as the economic equivalent of net interest income (interest income less implied financing cost) on the underlying Agency security from trade date to settlement date. Management also includes interest rate swap periodic interest benefit/cost, which is also included in "gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net", in adjusted net interest income because interest rate swaps are used by the Company to economically hedge the impact of changing interest rates on its borrowing costs from repurchase agreements, and therefore represent a cost of financing in addition to GAAP interest expense. However, these non-GAAP measures do not provide a full perspective on our results of operations, and therefore, their usefulness is limited. For example, these non-GAAP measures do not include the changes in fair value of investments or changes in fair value of and costs of terminating derivative instruments used by management to economically hedge the impact of changing interest rates on the fair value of the Company’s portfolio and book value per common share. As a result, these non-GAAP measures should be considered as a supplement to, and not as a substitute for, the Company's GAAP results as reported on its consolidated statements of comprehensive income. Additionally, similarly titled non-GAAP financial measures used by other companies may not be computed in the same or similar fashion. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures used in this Annual Report on Form 10-K to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is presented below.
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| Year Ended | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reconciliations of GAAP to Non-GAAP Financial Measures: | December 31, 2021 | December 31, 2020 | |||||
| ($s in thousands except per share data) | |||||||
| Comprehensive income to common shareholders | $ | 17,413 | $ | 66,472 | |||
| Less: | |||||||
| Change in fair value of investments (1) | 81,641 | (214,559) | |||||
| Change in fair value of derivative instruments, net (2) | (37,905) | 188,936 | |||||
| Preferred stock redemption charge | 2,987 | 3,914 | |||||
| EAD to common shareholders | $ | 64,136 | $ | 44,763 | |||
| Average common shares outstanding | 32,596,272 | 23,106,200 | |||||
| Comprehensive income per common share | $ | 0.53 | $ | 2.88 | |||
| EAD per common share | $ | 1.97 | $ | 1.94 | |||
| Net interest income | $ | 54,380 | $ | 63,853 | |||
| TBA drop income (3) | 43,512 | 15,067 | |||||
| Net periodic interest benefit of interest rate swaps | — | 1,579 | |||||
| Adjusted net interest income | $ | 97,892 | $ | 80,499 | |||
| General and administrative expenses | (24,085) | (21,080) | |||||
| Other operating expense, net | (1,342) | (1,057) | |||||
| Preferred stock dividends | (8,329) | (13,599) | |||||
| EAD to common shareholders | $ | 64,136 | $ | 44,763 | |||
| Adjusted net interest spread (4) | 2.10 | % | 1.87 | % |
(1)Amount includes realized and unrealized gains and losses recorded in net income and other comprehensive income due to changes in the fair value of the Company’s MBS and other investments.
(2)Amount includes unrealized gains and losses from changes in fair value of derivatives and realized gains and losses on terminated derivatives and excludes TBA drop income and net periodic interest benefit from interest rate swaps.
(3)TBA drop income is calculated by multiplying the notional amount of the TBA dollar roll positions by the difference in price between two TBA securities with the same terms but different settlement dates.
(4)The reconciliation for adjusted net interest spread to net interest spread is shown in “Results of Operations - Adjusted Net Interest Income”.
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LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Our primary sources of liquidity include borrowings under repurchase arrangements and monthly principal and interest payments we receive on our investments less related amounts due on our borrowings. Additional sources may also include proceeds from the sale of investments, equity offerings, and net payments received from counterparties for derivative instruments. We use our liquidity to purchase investments and to pay our operating expenses and dividends on our common and preferred stock. We also use our liquidity to meet margin requirements for our repurchase agreements and derivative transactions, including TBA contracts, under the terms of the related agreements. We may also periodically use liquidity to repurchase shares of the Company’s stock.
Our liquidity fluctuates based on our investment activities, our leverage, capital raising activities, and changes in the fair value of our investments and derivative instruments. Our most liquid assets include unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and unencumbered Agency RMBS, CMBS, and CMBS IO. As of December 31, 2021, our most liquid assets were $533.1 million compared to $415.3 million as of December 31, 2020. We increased our available liquidity during 2021 to protect our book value and to provide us greater financial flexibility while protecting against market volatility, which we believe has a higher potential of occurring given market conditions. Furthermore, there are a number of potential risk events on the horizon including, a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy, higher interest rates, and widening credit spreads on MBS, all of which have occurred in early 2022.
We analyze our liquidity under various scenarios based on changes in the fair value of our investments and derivative instruments due to market factors such as changes in the absolute level of interest rates and the shape of the yield curve, credit spreads, lender haircuts, and prepayment speeds. In performing these analyses, we will also consider the current state of the fixed income markets and the repurchase agreement markets in order to determine if market forces such as supply-demand imbalances or structural changes to these markets could change the liquidity of MBS or the availability of financing. The objective of our analyses is to assess the adequacy of our liquidity to withstand potential adverse events, such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Our perception of the liquidity of our investments and market conditions significantly influence our targeted leverage. In general, our leverage will increase if we view the risk-reward opportunity of higher leverage on our capital outweighs the risk to our liquidity and book value. Our leverage, which we calculate using total liabilities plus the cost basis of TBA long positions, declined to 5.7x shareholders’ equity as of December 31, 2021 from 6.3x as of December 31, 2020 primarily as a result of equity capital we raised in 2021 which increased shareholders’ equity 22% versus an increase in total liabilities plus the cost basis of TBAs of 10%. We include the cost basis of our TBA securities in evaluating our leverage because it is possible under certain market conditions that it may be uneconomical for us to roll a TBA long position into future months, which may result in us having to take physical delivery of the underlying securities and use cash or other financing sources to fund our total purchase commitment. We maintained a lower targeted range of under 7.0x shareholders’ equity throughout 2021 in order to minimize losses in book value, given potential volatility in the market, and the lower marginal returns available due to credit spread tightening.
Our repurchase agreement borrowings are principally uncommitted with terms renewable at the discretion of our lenders and generally have original terms to maturity of overnight to six months, though in some instances we may enter into longer-dated maturities depending on market conditions. We seek to maintain unused capacity under our existing repurchase agreement credit lines with multiple counterparties, which helps protect us in the event of a counterparty's failure to renew existing repurchase agreements. As part of our continuous evaluation of counterparty risk, we maintain our highest counterparty exposures with broker dealer subsidiaries of regulated financial institutions or primary dealers.
The following table presents information regarding the balances of our repurchase agreement borrowings as of and for the periods indicated:
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| Repurchase Agreements | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($s in thousands) | Balance Outstanding As of Quarter End | Average Balance Outstanding For the Quarter Ended | Maximum Balance Outstanding During the Quarter Ended | |||||||
| December 31, 2021 | $ | 2,849,916 | $ | 2,701,191 | $ | 2,873,523 | ||||
| September 30, 2021 | 2,527,065 | 2,529,023 | 2,590,185 | |||||||
| June 30, 2021 | 2,321,043 | 2,155,200 | 2,415,037 | |||||||
| March 31, 2021 | 2,032,089 | 2,158,121 | 2,437,163 | |||||||
| December 31, 2020 | 2,437,163 | 2,500,639 | 2,594,683 | |||||||
| September 30, 2020 | 2,594,683 | 2,984,946 | 3,314,991 | |||||||
| June 30, 2020 | 3,314,991 | 2,580,296 | 4,408,106 | |||||||
| March 31, 2020 | 4,408,106 | 4,701,010 | 4,917,731 | |||||||
| December 31, 2019 | 4,752,348 | 4,806,826 | 4,891,341 |
For our repurchase agreement borrowings, we are required to post and maintain margin to the lender (i.e., collateral in excess of the repurchase agreement financing) in order to support the amount of the financing. This excess collateral is often referred to as a “haircut” and is intended to provide the lender protection against fluctuations in fair value of the collateral and/or the failure by us to repay the borrowing at maturity. Lenders have the right to change haircut requirements at maturity of the repurchase agreement and may change their haircuts based on market conditions and the perceived riskiness of the collateral pledged. If the fair value of the collateral falls below the amount required by the lender, the lender has the right to demand additional margin, or collateral, to increase the haircut back to the initial amount. These demands are referred to as “margin calls”, and if we fail to meet any margin call, our lenders have the right to terminate the repurchase agreement and sell any collateral pledged. Declines in the fair value of investments occur for any number of reasons including but not limited to changes in interest rates, changes in ratings on an investment, changes in actual or perceived liquidity of the investment, or changes in overall market risk perceptions. Additionally, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announce principal payments on Agency MBS in advance of their actual remittance of principal payments, and repurchase agreement lenders generally make margin calls for an amount equal to the product of their advance rate on the repurchase agreement and the announced principal payments on the Agency RMBS. A margin call made by a lender reduces our liquidity until we receive the principal payments from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The weighted average haircut for our borrowings as of December 31, 2021 was consistent with prior periods, which has typically averaged less than 5% for borrowings collateralized with Agency RMBS and CMBS and between 13-16% for borrowings collateralized with CMBS IO.
The collateral we post in excess of our repurchase agreement borrowing with any counterparty is also typically referred to by us as “equity at risk”, which represents the potential loss to the Company if the counterparty is unable or unwilling to return collateral securing the repurchase agreement borrowing at its maturity. The counterparties with whom we have the greatest amounts of equity at risk may vary significantly during any given period due to the short-term and generally uncommitted nature of the repurchase agreement borrowings. As of December 31, 2021, the Company had repurchase agreement amounts outstanding with 22 of its 37 available repurchase agreement counterparties and did not have more than 5% of equity at risk with any counterparty or group of related counterparties.
We have various financial and operating covenants in certain of our repurchase agreements including, among other things, requirements that we maintain minimum shareholders' equity (usually a set minimum, or a percentage of the highest amount of shareholders' equity since the date of the agreement), limits on maximum decline in shareholders' equity (expressed as a percentage decline in any given period), limits on maximum leverage (as a multiple of shareholders' equity), and requirements to maintain our status as a REIT under the Tax Code and the corresponding provisions of state law and to maintain our listing on the New York Stock Exchange. Violations of one or more of these covenants could result in the lender declaring an event of default which would result in the termination of the repurchase agreement and immediate acceleration of amounts due thereunder. In addition, some of the agreements contain cross default features, whereby default with one lender simultaneously causes default under agreements with other lenders. Violations could also restrict us from paying dividends or engaging in other transactions that are necessary for us to maintain our REIT status.
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We monitor and evaluate on an ongoing basis the impact these customary financial covenants may have on our operating and financing flexibility. Currently, we do not believe we are subject to any covenants that materially restrict our financing flexibility. We were in full compliance with our debt covenants as of December 31, 2021, and we are not aware of any circumstances which could potentially result in our non-compliance in the foreseeable future.
Derivative Instruments
Derivative instruments we enter into may require us to post initial margin at inception and daily variation margin based on subsequent changes in their fair value. Daily variation margin requirements also entitle us to receive collateral from our counterparties if the value of amounts owed to us under the derivative agreement exceeds the minimum margin requirement. The collateral posted as margin by us is typically in the form of cash. As of December 31, 2021, we had cash collateral posted to our counterparties of $55.3 million and cash collateral posted by our counterparties of $1.8 million under these agreements.
Collateral requirements for interest rate derivative instruments are typically governed by the central clearing exchange and the associated futures commission merchant, which may establish margin requirements in excess of the clearing exchange. Collateral requirements for our TBA contracts are governed by the Mortgage-Backed Securities Division ("MBSD") of the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation and, if applicable, by our third-party brokerage agreements, which may establish margin levels in excess of the MBSD. Our TBA contracts, which are subject to master securities forward transaction agreements published by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association as well as supplemental terms and conditions with each counterparty, generally provide that valuations for our TBA contracts and any pledged collateral are to be obtained from a generally recognized source agreed to by both parties. However, in certain circumstances, our counterparties have the sole discretion to determine the value of the TBA contract and any pledged collateral. In such instances, our counterparties are required to act in good faith in making determinations of value. In the event of a margin call, we must generally provide additional collateral on the same business day.
Dividends
As a REIT, we are required to distribute to our shareholders amounts equal to at least 90% of our REIT taxable income for each taxable year after certain deductions. When declaring dividends, our Board of Directors considers the requirements for maintaining our REIT status and maintaining compliance with dividend requirements of the Series C Preferred Stock. In addition, our Board of Directors considers, among other things, our total economic return, EAD to common shareholders, taxable income, gains and losses including carryforwards for tax purposes, the Company's long-term outlook for future performance, and trends in the investment and financing markets. We generally fund our dividend distributions through our cash flows from operations. If we make dividend distributions in excess of our operating cash flows during the period, whether for purposes of meeting our REIT distribution requirements or other strategic reasons, those distributions are generally funded either through our existing cash balances or through the return of principal from our investments (either through repayment or sale). Please refer to the following sections of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional important information regarding dividends declared on our taxable income:
•"Operating and Regulatory Structure" within Part 1, Item 1, "Business";
•Part 1, Item 1A, "Risk Factors"; and
•Part II, Item 5, "Market For Registrant's Common Equity, Related Stockholder Matters, and Issuer
Purchases of Equity Securities."
RECENT ACCOUNTING PRONOUNCEMENTS
There were no accounting pronouncements issued during the year ended December 31, 2021 that are expected to have a material impact on the Company’s financial condition or results of operations. Please refer to Note 1 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within Part I, Item 1 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information.
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CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
The discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations are based in large part upon our consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. The preparation of our consolidated financial statements requires management to make estimates, judgments and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities. We base these estimates and judgments on historical experience and assumptions believed to be reasonable under current facts and circumstances. Actual results, however, may differ from the estimated amounts we have recorded.
The following discussion provides information on our critical accounting policies that require management's most difficult, subjective or complex judgments, and which may result in materially different results under different assumptions and conditions. Please also refer to Note 1 of our Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements included within Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information related to significant accounting policies.
Fair Value Measurements. Our Agency MBS, as well as a majority of our non-Agency MBS, are substantially similar to securities that either are actively traded or have been recently traded in their respective market. Pricing services and brokers have access to observable market information through trading desks and various information services. MBS prices are based on prices we receive from third-party pricing services and broker quotes. To determine each security's valuation, the pricing service uses either a market approach or income approach, both of which rely on observable market data. The market approach uses prices and other relevant information that is generated by market transactions of identical or similar securities, while the income approach uses valuation techniques to convert estimated future cash flows to a discounted present value. Management reviews the assumptions and inputs utilized in the valuation techniques. Examples of these observable inputs and assumptions include market interest rates, credit spreads, and projected prepayment speeds, among other things.
In addition, management reviews the prices received for each security by comparing those prices to actual purchase and sale transactions, our internally modeled prices that are calculated based on observable market rates and credit spreads, and the prices that our borrowing counterparties use in financing our securities. If the price of a security is obtained from quoted prices for similar instruments or model-derived valuations whose inputs are observable, the security is classified as a level 2 security. The security is classified as a level 3 security if the inputs are unobservable, resulting in an estimate of fair value based primarily on management's judgment. Please refer to Note 7 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information on fair value measurements.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Certain written statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K that are not historical facts constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the 1933 Act and Section 21E of the Exchange Act. Statements in this report addressing expectations, assumptions, beliefs, projections, future plans and strategies, future events, developments that we expect or anticipate will occur in the future, and future operating results, capital management, and dividend policy are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based upon management’s beliefs, assumptions, and expectations as of the date of this report regarding future events and operating performance, taking into account all information currently available to us, and are applicable only as of the date of this report. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by use of words such as “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “estimate”, “plan”, “may”, “will”, “intend”, “should”, “could” or similar expressions. We caution readers not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, which are not historical facts and may be based on projections, assumptions, expectations, and anticipated events that do not materialize. Except as required by law, we are not obligated to, and do not intend to, update or revise any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
Forward-looking statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K may include, but are not limited to statements about:
•Our business and investment strategy including our ability to generate acceptable risk-adjusted returns and our target investment allocations, and our views on the future performance of MBS and other investments;
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•Our views on the macroeconomic environment, monetary and fiscal policy, and conditions in the investment, credit, interest rate and derivatives markets;
•Our views on inflation, market interest rates and market spreads;
•Our views on the effect of actual or proposed actions of the Federal Reserve or other central banks with respect to monetary policy (including the targeted Federal Funds Rate), and the potential impact of these actions on interest rates, borrowing costs, inflation or unemployment;
•The effect of regulatory initiatives of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, other financial regulators, and other central banks;
•Our financing strategy including our target leverage ratios, our use of TBA dollar roll transactions, and anticipated trends in financing costs including TBA dollar roll transaction costs, and our hedging strategy including changes to the derivative instruments to which we are a party, and changes to government regulation of hedging instruments and our use of these instruments;
•Our investment portfolio composition and target investments;
•Our investment portfolio performance, including the fair value, yields, and forecasted prepayment speeds of our investments;
•The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy, as well as certain actions taken by federal, state and local governments in response to the pandemic, and on the performance of loans underlying our investments;
•Our liquidity and ability to access financing, and the anticipated availability and cost of financing;
•Our capital stock activity including the impact of stock issuances and repurchases;
•The amount, timing, and funding of future dividends;
•Our use of our tax NOL carryforward and other tax loss carryforwards;
•Future competition for, and availability of, investments, financing and capital;
•Estimates of future interest expenses, including related to the Company’s repurchase agreements and derivative instruments;
•The status and effect of legislative reforms and regulatory rule-making or review processes, and the status of reform efforts and other business developments in the repurchase agreement financing market;
•Market, industry and economic trends, and how these trends and related economic data may impact the behavior of market participants and financial regulators;
•Uncertainties regarding ongoing hostilities between Russia and the Ukraine and the related impacts on macroeconomic conditions, including, among other things, interest rates;
•The financial position and credit worthiness of the depository institutions in which the Company’s MBS and cash deposits are held;
•The impact of applicable tax and accounting requirements on us including our tax treatment of derivative instruments such as TBAs, interest rate swaps, options and futures;
•Our future compliance with covenants in our master repurchase agreements, ISDA agreements, and debt covenants in our other contractual agreements;
•Our reliance on a single service provider of our trading, portfolio management, risk reporting and accounting services systems;
•The implementation in a timely and cost-effective manner of our operating platform, which includes trading, portfolio management, risk reporting, and accounting services systems, and the anticipated benefits thereof; and
•Possible future effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Forward-looking statements are inherently subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from historical results or from any results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Not all of these risks and other factors are known to us. New risks and uncertainties arise over time, and it is not possible to predict those events or how they may affect us. The projections, assumptions, expectations or beliefs upon which the forward-looking statements are based can also change as a result of these risks or other factors. If such a risk or other factor materializes in future periods, our business, financial condition, liquidity and results of operations may vary materially from those expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements.
While it is not possible to identify all factors that may cause actual results to differ from historical results or from any results expressed or implied by forward-looking statements, or that may cause our projections, assumptions, expectations or beliefs to change, some of those factors include the following:
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•the risks and uncertainties referenced in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, especially those incorporated by reference into Part II, Item 1A, “Risk Factors,” and in particular, adverse effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and any governmental or societal responses thereto, including the efficacy, distribution, availability and adoption rates of vaccines for COVID-19 and variants thereof;
•our ability to find suitable reinvestment opportunities;
•changes in domestic economic conditions;
•geopolitical events, such as terrorism, war or other military conflict, including increased uncertainty regarding the ongoing hostility between Russia and the Ukraine and the related impact on macroeconomic conditions as a result of such conflict;
•changes in interest rates and credit spreads, including the repricing of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities;
•our investment portfolio performance particularly as it relates to cash flow, prepayment rates and credit performance;
•the impact on markets and asset prices from changes in the Federal Reserve’s policies regarding the purchases of Agency RMBS, Agency CMBS, and U.S. Treasuries;
•actual or anticipated changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy or the monetary policy of other central banks;
•adverse reactions in U.S. financial markets related to actions of foreign central banks or the economic performance of foreign economies including in particular China, Japan, the European Union, and the United Kingdom;
•uncertainty concerning the long-term fiscal health and stability of the United States;
•the cost and availability of financing, including the future availability of financing due to changes to regulation of, and capital requirements imposed upon, financial institutions;
•the cost and availability of new equity capital;
•changes in our leverage and use of leverage;
•changes to our investment strategy, operating policies, dividend policy or asset allocations;
•the quality of performance of third-party service providers, including our sole third-party service provider for our critical operations and trade functions;
•the loss or unavailability of our third-party service provider’s service and technology that supports critical functions of our business related to our trading and borrowing activities due to outages, interruptions, or other failures;
•the level of defaults by borrowers on loans underlying MBS;
•changes in our industry;
•increased competition;
•changes in government regulations affecting our business;
•changes or volatility in the repurchase agreement financing markets and other credit markets;
•changes to the market for interest rate swaps and other derivative instruments, including changes to margin requirements on derivative instruments;
•uncertainty regarding continued government support of the U.S. financial system and U.S. housing and real estate markets, or to reform the U.S. housing finance system including the resolution of the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac;
•the composition of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve;
•the political environment in the U.S.;
•systems failures or cybersecurity incidents; and
•exposure to current and future claims and litigation.