CREDIT ACCEPTANCE CORP (CACC)

ITEM 7.    MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

The following discussion and analysis should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and related notes contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference.

Overview

We make vehicle ownership possible by providing innovative financing solutions that enable automobile dealers to sell vehicles to consumers, regardless of their credit history. Our financing programs are offered through a nationwide network of automobile dealers who benefit from sales of vehicles to consumers who otherwise could not obtain financing; from repeat and referral sales generated by these same customers; and from sales to customers responding to advertisements for our financing programs, but who actually end up qualifying for traditional financing.

For the year ended December 31, 2024, consolidated net income was $247.9 million, or $19.88 per diluted share, compared to $286.1 million, or $21.99 per diluted share, for the same period in 2023. The decrease in consolidated net income was primarily due to increases in interest expense and provision for credit losses, partially offset by an increase in finance charges. Our results for the year ended December 31, 2024 included:

•A larger decline in forecasted collection rates

The decline in forecasted collection rates decreased forecasted net cash flows from our Loan portfolio by $314.0 million, or 3.1%, compared to a decrease in forecasted collection rates during 2023 that decreased forecasted net cash flows from our Loan portfolio by $206.3 million, or 2.3%. The $314.0 million decrease in forecasted net cash flows during 2024 was composed of an ordinary decrease in forecasted net cash flows of $166.8 million, or 1.7%, and an adjustment applied to our forecasting methodology during the second quarter of 2024, which upon implementation, reduced forecasted net cash flows by $147.2 million, or 1.4%. The $206.3 million decrease in forecasted net cash flows during 2023 was composed of an ordinary decrease in forecasted net cash flows of $161.8 million, or 1.8%, and an adjustment to our forecasting methodology, which upon implementation, reduced forecasted net cash flows by $44.5 million, or 0.5%.

•A decrease in forecasted profitability for Consumer Loans assigned in 2021 through 2024

Forecasted profitability was lower than our estimates at December 31, 2023, due to both a decline in forecasted collection rates and slower forecasted net cash flow timing since 2023. The slower forecasted net cash flow timing was primarily a result of a decrease in Consumer Loan prepayments, which remain below historical averages.

•Growth in Consumer Loan assignment volume and the average balance of our Loan portfolio

Unit and dollar volumes grew 16.1% and 11.3%, respectively, as compared to 2023. The average balance of our Loan portfolio, which is our largest-ever, increased 13.6% as compared to 2023.

•An increase in the initial spread on Consumer Loan assignments

The initial spread increased to 22.1% compared to 21.3% on Consumer Loans assigned in 2023.

•An increase in our average cost of debt

Our average cost of debt increased from 5.5% to 7.2%, primarily as a result of higher interest rates on recently completed or extended secured financings and recently issued senior notes and the repayment of older secured financings and senior notes with lower interest rates.

•A decrease in common shares outstanding due to stock repurchases

We repurchased approximately 590,000 shares, or 4.7% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of the year.

•Loss on sale of building

We recognized a $23.7 million loss during the second quarter of 2024 related to the sale of one of our two office buildings. The building was sold to reduce excess office space and eliminate the associated annual operating costs of approximately $2.1 million.

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For the year ended December 31, 2023, consolidated net income was $286.1 million, or $21.99 per diluted share, compared to $535.8 million, or $39.32 per diluted share, for the same period in 2022. The decrease in consolidated net income was primarily due to increases in provision for credit losses and interest expense. Our results for the year ended December 31, 2023 included:

•A larger decline in forecasted collection rates

The decline in forecasted collection rates decreased forecasted net cash flows from our Loan portfolio by $206.3 million, or 2.3%, compared to a decrease in forecasted collection rates during 2022 that decreased forecasted net cash flows from our Loan portfolio by $59.7 million, or 0.7%.

•A decrease in forecasted profitability for Consumer Loans assigned in 2020 through 2022

Forecasted profitability was lower than our estimates at December 31, 2022, due to a decline in forecasted collection rates during 2023 and slower forecasted net cash flow timing during 2023, primarily as a result of a decrease in Consumer Loan prepayments to below-average levels.

•Growth in Consumer Loan assignment volume and the average balance of our Loan portfolio

Unit and dollar volumes grew 18.6% and 14.4%, respectively, as compared to 2022. The average balance of our Loan portfolio increased 5.0% as compared to 2022.

•An increase in the initial spread on Consumer Loan assignments

The initial spread increased to 21.3% compared to 20.1% on Consumer Loans assigned in 2022.

•An increase in our average cost of debt

Our average cost of debt increased from 3.6% to 5.5%, primarily as a result of higher interest rates on recently completed or extended secured financings and the repayment of older secured financings with lower interest rates.

•A decrease in common shares outstanding due to stock repurchases

We repurchased 0.4 million shares, or 2.8% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of the year.

Critical Success Factors

Critical success factors include our ability to accurately forecast Consumer Loan performance, access capital on acceptable terms, and maintain or grow Consumer Loan volume at the level and on the terms that we anticipate, with the objective to maximize economic profit over the long term. Economic profit is a non-GAAP financial measure we use to evaluate our financial results and determine profit-sharing for team members. We also use economic profit as a framework to evaluate business decisions and strategies. Economic profit measures how efficiently we utilize our total capital, both debt and equity, and is a function of the return on capital in excess of the cost of capital and the amount of capital invested in the business.

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Consumer Loan Metrics

At the time a Consumer Loan is submitted to us for assignment, we forecast future expected cash flows from the Consumer Loan. Based on the amount and timing of these forecasts and expected expense levels, an advance or one-time purchase payment is made to the related Dealer at a price designed to maximize economic profit.

We use a statistical model to estimate the expected collection rate for each Consumer Loan at the time of assignment. We continue to evaluate the expected collection rate for each Consumer Loan subsequent to assignment. Our evaluation becomes more accurate as the Consumer Loans age, as we use actual performance data in our forecast. By comparing our current expected collection rate for each Consumer Loan with the rate we projected at the time of assignment, we are able to assess the accuracy of our initial forecast. The following table compares our aggregated forecast of Consumer Loan collection rates as of December 31, 2024, with the aggregated forecasts as of December 31, 2023, as of December 31, 2022, and at the time of assignment, segmented by year of assignment:

(1)Represents the total forecasted collections we expect to collect on the Consumer Loans as a percentage of the repayments that we were contractually owed on the Consumer Loans at the time of assignment. Contractual repayments include both principal and interest. Forecasted collection rates are negatively impacted by canceled Consumer Loans as the contractual amount owed is not removed from the denominator for purposes of computing forecasted collection rates.

Consumer Loans assigned in 2018 through 2020 have yielded forecasted collection results significantly better than our initial estimates, while Consumer Loans assigned in 2015, 2016, and 2021 through 2023 have yielded forecasted collection results significantly worse than our initial estimates. For all other assignment years presented, actual results have been close to our initial estimates.

For the year ended December 31, 2024, forecasted collection rates improved for Consumer Loans assigned in 2019, declined for Consumer Loans assigned in 2021 through 2024, and were generally consistent with expectations at the start of the period for all other assignment years presented.

For the year ended December 31, 2023, forecasted collection rates improved for Consumer Loans assigned in 2018 and 2019, declined for Consumer Loans assigned in 2020 through 2022, and were generally consistent with expectations at the start of the period for all other assignment years presented.

The changes in forecasted collection rates impacted forecasted net cash flows (forecasted collections less forecasted Dealer Holdback payments) as follows:

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During the second quarter of 2024, we applied an adjustment to our methodology for forecasting the amount of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio, which reduced the forecasted collection rates for Consumer Loans assigned in 2022 through 2024. Consumer Loans assigned in 2022 had continued to underperform our expectations for several quarters. Consumer Loans assigned in 2023 had also begun exhibiting similar trends of underperformance, although not as severe as Consumer Loans assigned in 2022. During the second quarter of 2024, we determined that we had sufficient Consumer Loan performance experience to estimate the magnitude by which we expected Consumer Loans assigned in 2022 through 2024 would likely underperform our historical collection rates on Consumer Loans with similar characteristics. Accordingly, we applied an adjustment to Consumer Loans assigned in 2022 through 2024 to reduce forecasted collection rates to what we believed the ultimate collection rates would be based on these trends. Changes in the amount and timing of forecasted net cash flows are recognized in the period of change as a provision for credit losses. The implementation of this forecast adjustment during the second quarter of 2024 reduced forecasted net cash flows by $147.2 million, or 1.4%, and increased provision for credit losses by $127.5 million.

During the second quarter of 2023, we adjusted our methodology for forecasting the amount and timing of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio through the utilization of more recent Consumer Loan performance and Consumer Loan prepayment data. We had experienced a decrease in Consumer Loan prepayments to below-average levels and, as a result, slowed our forecasted net cash flow timing. Historically, Consumer Loan prepayments have been lower in periods with less availability of consumer credit. Changes in the amount and timing of forecasted net cash flows are recognized in the period of change as a provision for credit losses. The implementation of the adjustment to our forecasting methodology during the second quarter of 2023 reduced forecasted net cash flows by $44.5 million, or 0.5%, and increased provision for credit losses by $71.3 million.

We have experienced increased levels of uncertainty associated with our estimate of the amount and timing of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio since the beginning of 2020, with realized collections underperforming our expectations during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, outperforming our expectations following the distribution of federal stimulus payments and enhanced unemployment benefits, and underperforming our expectations during the current economic environment. The quarterly changes to our forecast of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio for the period from January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2024 are shown in the following table:

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The following table presents information on Consumer Loan assignments for each of the last 10 years:

(1)Represents the repayments that we were contractually owed on Consumer Loans at the time of assignment, which include both principal and interest.

(2)Represents advances paid to Dealers on Consumer Loans assigned under the Portfolio Program and one-time payments made to Dealers to purchase Consumer Loans assigned under the Purchase Program.  Payments of Dealer Holdback and accelerated Dealer Holdback are not included.

The profitability of our loans is primarily driven by the amount and timing of the net cash flows we receive from the spread between the forecasted collection rate and the advance rate, less operating expenses and the cost of capital. Forecasting collection rates accurately at Loan inception is difficult. With this in mind, we establish advance rates that are intended to allow us to achieve acceptable levels of profitability across our portfolio, even if collection rates are less than we initially forecast.

The following table presents aggregate forecasted Consumer Loan collection rates, advance rates, and spreads (the forecasted collection rate less the advance rate), and the percentage of the forecasted collections that had been realized as of December 31, 2024, as well as forecasted collection rates and spreads at the time of assignment. All amounts, unless otherwise noted, are presented as a percentage of the initial balance of the Consumer Loan (principal + interest). The table includes both Dealer Loans and Purchased Loans.

(1)Represents advances paid to Dealers on Consumer Loans assigned under the Portfolio Program and one-time payments made to Dealers to purchase Consumer Loans assigned under the Purchase Program as a percentage of the initial balance of the Consumer Loans. Payments of Dealer Holdback and accelerated Dealer Holdback are not included.

(2)Presented as a percentage of total forecasted collections.

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The risk of a material change in our forecasted collection rate declines as the Consumer Loans age. For 2020 and prior Consumer Loan assignments, the risk of a material forecast variance is modest, as we have currently realized in excess of 90% of the expected collections. Conversely, the forecasted collection rates for more recent Consumer Loan assignments are less certain as a significant portion of our forecast has not been realized.

The spread between the forecasted collection rate as of December 31, 2024 and the advance rate ranges from 12.8% to 23.8% for Consumer Loans assigned over the last 10 years. The spreads with respect to 2019 and 2020 Consumer Loans have been positively impacted by Consumer Loan performance, which has exceeded our initial estimates by a greater margin than the other years presented. The spread with respect to 2022 Consumer Loans has been negatively impacted by Consumer Loan performance, which has been lower than our initial estimates by a greater margin than the other years presented. The higher spread for 2024 Consumer Loans relative to 2023 Consumer Loans as of December 31, 2024 was primarily a result of Consumer Loan performance, as the performance of 2023 Consumer Loans has been lower than our initial estimates by a greater margin than 2024 Consumer Loans. Additionally, 2024 Consumer Loans had a higher initial spread, which was primarily due to a decrease in the advance rate.

The following table compares our forecast of aggregate Consumer Loan collection rates as of December 31, 2024 with the forecasts at the time of assignment, for Dealer Loans and Purchased Loans separately:

(1)    The forecasted collection rates presented for Dealer Loans and Purchased Loans reflect the Consumer Loan classification at the time of assignment. The forecasted collection rates represent the total forecasted collections we expect to collect on the Consumer Loans as a percentage of the repayments that we were contractually owed on the Consumer Loans at the time of assignment. Contractual repayments include both principal and interest. Forecasted collection rates are negatively impacted by canceled Consumer Loans as the contractual amount owed is not removed from the denominator for purposes of computing forecasted collection rates.

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The following table presents aggregate forecasted Consumer Loan collection rates, advance rates, and spreads (the forecasted collection rate less the advance rate) as of December 31, 2024 for Dealer Loans and Purchased Loans separately. All amounts are presented as a percentage of the initial balance of the Consumer Loan (principal + interest).

(1)The forecasted collection rates and advance rates presented for Dealer Loans and Purchased Loans reflect the Consumer Loan classification at the time of assignment.

(2)Represents advances paid to Dealers on Consumer Loans assigned under the Portfolio Program and one-time payments made to Dealers to purchase Consumer Loans assigned under the Purchase Program as a percentage of the initial balance of the Consumer Loans. Payments of Dealer Holdback and accelerated Dealer Holdback are not included.

Although the advance rate on Purchased Loans is higher as compared to the advance rate on Dealer Loans, Purchased Loans do not require us to pay Dealer Holdback.

The spread as of December 31, 2024 on 2024 Dealer Loans was 21.3%, as compared to a spread of 18.3% on 2023 Dealer Loans. The increase was primarily due to Consumer Loan performance, as the performance of 2023 Dealer Loans has been lower than our initial estimates by a greater margin than 2024 Dealer Loans.

The spread as of December 31, 2024 on 2024 Purchased Loans was 21.8%, as compared to a spread of 17.9% on 2023 Purchased Loans. The increase was primarily a result of a higher initial spread on 2024 Purchased Loans, due to a higher initial forecast and lower advance rate. Additionally, the performance of 2023 Purchased Loans has been lower than our initial estimates.

Access to Capital

Our strategy for accessing capital on acceptable terms needed to maintain and grow the business is to: (1) maintain consistent financial performance; (2) maintain modest financial leverage; and (3) maintain multiple funding sources. Our funded debt to equity ratio was 3.6 to 1 as of December 31, 2024. We currently utilize the following primary forms of debt financing: (1) our revolving secured line of credit facility; (2) Warehouse facilities; (3) Term ABS financings; and (4) senior notes.

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Consumer Loan Volume

The following table summarizes changes in Consumer Loan assignment volume in each of the last three years as compared to the same period in the previous year:

(1)Represents advances paid to Dealers on Consumer Loans assigned under the Portfolio Program and one-time payments made to Dealers to purchase Consumer Loans assigned under the Purchase Program.  Payments of Dealer Holdback and accelerated Dealer Holdback are not included.

Consumer Loan assignment volumes depend on a number of factors including (1) the overall demand for our financing programs, (2) the amount of capital available to fund new Loans, and (3) our assessment of the volume that our infrastructure can support. Our pricing strategy is intended to maximize the amount of economic profit we generate, within the confines of capital and infrastructure constraints.

During 2024, unit and dollar volumes increased 16.1% and 11.3%, respectively, as the number of active Dealers increased 9.1% while average volume per active Dealer increased 6.4%. Dollar volume increased less than unit volume in 2024 due to a decrease in the average advance paid, due to decreases in the average advance rate and the average size of Consumer Loans assigned. Unit volume for 2024 was the highest unit volume in our history.

During 2023, unit and dollar volumes increased 18.6% and 14.4%, respectively, as the number of active Dealers increased 19.1% while average volume per active Dealer decreased 0.4%. Dollar volume increased less than unit volume in 2023 due to a decrease in the average advance paid, due to decreases in the average advance rate and the average size of Consumer Loans assigned.

The following table summarizes the changes in Consumer Loan unit volume and active Dealers:

(1)Active Dealers are Dealers who have received funding for at least one Consumer Loan during the period.

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The following table provides additional information on the changes in Consumer Loan unit volume and active Dealers:

(1)New active Dealers are Dealers who enrolled in our program and have received funding for their first Loan from us during the period.

(2)Attrition is measured according to the following formula: decrease in Consumer Loan unit volume from Dealers who have received funding for at least one Loan during the comparable period of the prior year but did not receive funding for any Loans during the current period divided by prior year comparable period Consumer Loan unit volume.

Consumer Loans are assigned to us as either Dealer Loans through the Portfolio Program or Purchased Loans through the Purchase Program. The following table shows the percentage of Consumer Loans assigned to us under each of the programs for each of the last three years:

(1)Represents advances paid to Dealers on Consumer Loans assigned under the Portfolio Program and one-time payments made to Dealers to purchase Consumer Loans assigned under the Purchase Program. Payments of Dealer Holdback and accelerated Dealer Holdback are not included.

As of December 31, 2024 and 2023, the net Dealer Loans receivable balance was 72.3% and 67.7%, respectively, of the total net Loans receivable balance.

Results of Operations

The following is a discussion of our 2024 and 2023 results of operations and income statement data on a consolidated basis, including year-to-year comparisons between 2024 and 2023. Discussions of 2022 items and year-to-year comparisons between 2023 and 2022 that are not included in this Form 10-K can be found in “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Item 7 of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023.

The net Loan income (finance charge revenue less provision for credit losses expense) that we recognize over the life of a Loan equals the cash we collect from the underlying Consumer Loan less the cash we pay to the Dealer. We believe the economics of our business are best exhibited by recognizing net Loan income on a level-yield basis over the life of the Loan based on expected future net cash flows. Under the GAAP methodology we employ, which is known as the current expected credit loss model, or CECL, we are required to recognize:

•a significant provision for credit losses expense at the time of the Loan’s assignment to us for contractual net cash flows we do not expect to realize; and

•finance charge revenue in subsequent periods that is significantly in excess of our expected yields.

Due to the GAAP treatment of contractual net cash flows we do not expect to realize at the time of loan assignment (i.e. significant expense at the time of loan assignment, which is offset by higher revenue in subsequent periods), we do not believe the GAAP methodology we employ provides sufficient transparency into the economics of our business, including our results of operations, financial condition, and financial leverage. For additional information, see Note 2 and Note 5 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference.

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Year Ended December 31, 2024 Compared to Year Ended December 31, 2023

Finance Charges. The increase of $237.3 million, or 13.5%, was primarily due to an increase in the average net Loans receivable balance, as follows:

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The following table summarizes the impact each component had on the overall increase in finance charges for the year ended December 31, 2024:

The increase in the average net Loans receivable balance was primarily due to the dollar volume of new Consumer Loan assignments exceeding the principal collected on Loans receivable.

Premiums Earned. The increase of $16.5 million, or 20.7%, was primarily due to growth in the size of our reinsurance portfolio, which resulted from growth in new Consumer Loan assignments and an increase in the average premium written per reinsured vehicle service contract in recent periods.

Operating Expenses. The increase of $42.4 million, or 9.2%, was primarily due to:

•An increase in salaries and wages expense of $29.0 million, or 10.3%, primarily due to increases in (i) the number of team members as we are investing in our business with the goal of increasing the speed at which we enhance our product for Dealers and consumers, (ii) fringe benefits, primarily due to higher medical claims, and (iii) stock-based compensation expense, primarily due to equity awards granted to our executive officers and senior leaders.

▪An increase in general and administrative expense of $10.7 million, or 12.3%, primarily due to increases in legal and technology systems expenses.

Provision for Credit Losses. The increase of $78.5 million, or 10.7%, was primarily due to an increase in provision for credit losses on forecast changes.

We recognize provision for credit losses on new Consumer Loan assignments for contractual net cash flows that are not expected to be realized at the time of assignment. We also recognize provision for credit losses on forecast changes in the amount and timing of expected future net cash flows subsequent to assignment. The following table summarizes the provision for credit losses for each of these components:

The increase in provision for credit losses related to forecast changes was due to a greater decline in Consumer Loan performance during 2024 compared to 2023 and slower net cash flow timing during 2024 compared to 2023.

During 2024, we decreased our estimate of future net cash flows by $314.0 million, or 3.1%, to reflect a decline in forecasted collection rates during the period and slowed our forecasted net cash flow timing to reflect a decrease in Consumer Loan prepayments, which remain below historical averages. Historically, Consumer Loan prepayments have been lower in periods with less availability of consumer credit. The $314.0 million decrease in forecasted net cash flows for the year ended December 31, 2024 was composed of an ordinary decrease in forecasted net cash flows of $166.8 million, or 1.7%, and an adjustment applied to our forecasting methodology during the second quarter of 2024, which upon implementation, reduced forecasted net cash flows by $147.2 million, or 1.4%, and increased our provision for credit losses by $127.5 million. Consumer Loans assigned in 2022 had continued to underperform our expectations for several quarters. Consumer Loans assigned in 2023 had also begun exhibiting similar trends of underperformance, although not as severe as Consumer Loans assigned in 2022. During the second quarter of 2024, we determined that we had sufficient Consumer Loan performance experience to estimate the magnitude by which we expected Consumer Loans assigned in 2022 through 2024 would likely underperform our historical collection rates on Consumer Loans with similar characteristics. Accordingly, we applied an adjustment to Consumer Loans assigned in 2022 through 2024 to reduce forecasted collection rates to what we believed the ultimate collection rates would be based on these trends.

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During 2023, we decreased our estimate of future net cash flows by $206.3 million, or 2.3%, to reflect a decline in Consumer Loan prepayments to below-average levels. The $206.3 million decrease in forecasted net cash flows during 2023 was composed of an ordinary decrease in forecasted net cash flows of $161.8 million, or 1.8%, and an adjustment to our forecasting methodology during the second quarter of 2023, which, upon implementation, decreased our estimate of future net cash flows by $44.5 million, or 0.5%, and increased our provision for credit losses by $71.3 million. We adjusted our methodology for forecasting the amount and timing of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio through the utilization of more recent Consumer Loan performance and Consumer Loan prepayment data.

For additional information, see Note 5 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference.

The decrease in provision for credit losses related to new Consumer Loan assignments was due to a 14.3% decrease in the average provision per new Consumer Loan assignment, partially offset by a 16.1% increase in Consumer Loan assignment unit volume. The decrease in average provision per new Consumer Loan assignment was primarily due to a decrease in the average advance rate for 2024 Consumer Loans and a lower percentage of Purchased Loans in the mix of Consumer Loan assignments received during 2024.

Interest. The increase in interest expense of $153.0 million, or 57.4%, was due to:

•An increase in our average cost of debt, which increased interest expense by $93.7 million, primarily as a result of higher interest rates on recently completed or extended secured financings and recently issued senior notes and the repayment of older secured financings and senior notes with lower interest rates.

•An increase in our average outstanding debt balance, which increased interest expense by $59.3 million, primarily due to borrowings used to fund the growth of our Loan portfolio and stock repurchases.

The following table presents the change in interest expense, average outstanding debt balance, and average cost of debt for the year ended December 31, 2024 as compared to the year ended December 31, 2023:

Loss on Sale of Building. For the year ended December 31, 2024, we recognized a loss on the sale of a building of $23.7 million. For additional information, see Note 6 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference.

Provision for Income Taxes. For the year ended December 31, 2024, the effective income tax rate increased to 24.8% from 22.2% for the year ended December 31, 2023. The increase was primarily due to:

•A decrease in the impact of excess tax benefits on our effective income tax rate, primarily due to the timing of long-term stock award grants.

•An increase in non-deductible executive compensation expense.

•An increase in the impact of state and local income taxes on our effective income tax rate, primarily due to an adjustment to an uncertain tax position estimate during the second quarter of 2024 and changes in state tax laws that were enacted during the second quarter of 2024.

For additional information, see Note 10 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference.

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Critical Accounting Estimates

Our consolidated financial statements are prepared in accordance with GAAP. The preparation of these financial statements requires management to make estimates and judgments that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting period. On an ongoing basis, we review our accounting policies, assumptions, estimates, and judgments to ensure that our financial statements are presented fairly and in accordance with GAAP.

Our significant accounting policies are discussed in Note 2 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference. We believe that the following accounting estimates are the most critical to aid in fully understanding and evaluating our reported financial results, and involve a high degree of subjective or complex judgment, and the use of different estimates or assumptions could produce materially different financial results.

Finance Charge Revenue & Allowance for Credit Losses

Nature of Estimates Required. We estimate the amount and timing of future collections and Dealer Holdback payments. These estimates impact Loans receivable and allowance for credit losses on our balance sheet and finance charges and provision for credit losses on our income statement.

Assumptions and Approaches Used. On January 1, 2020, we adopted Accounting Standards Update 2016-13, Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments, which is known as the current expected credit loss model, or CECL. For additional information regarding the adoption impact of CECL, see Note 2 and Note 5 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference.

We recognize finance charges under the interest method such that revenue is recognized on a level-yield basis over the life of the Loan. We calculate finance charges on a monthly basis by applying the effective interest rate of the Loan to the net carrying amount of the Loan (Loan receivable less the related allowance for credit losses). For Consumer Loans assigned on or subsequent to January 1, 2020, the effective interest rate is based on contractual future net cash flows. Consumer Loans assigned prior to January 1, 2020 are no longer material to our consolidated financial statements.

The outstanding balance of the allowance for credit losses of each Loan represents the amount required to reduce the net carrying amount of Loans (Loans receivable less allowance for credit losses) to the present value of expected future net cash flows discounted at the effective interest rate. Expected future net cash flows for Dealer Loans are comprised of expected future collections on the assigned Consumer Loans, less any expected future Dealer Holdback payments. Expected future net cash flows for Purchased Loans are comprised of expected future collections on the assigned Consumer Loans.

Expected future collections are forecasted for each individual Consumer Loan based on the historical performance of Consumer Loans with similar characteristics, adjusted for recent trends in payment patterns. Our forecast of expected future collections includes estimates for prepayments and post-contractual-term cash flows. Unless the consumer is no longer contractually obligated to pay us, we forecast future collections on each Consumer Loan for a 120 month period after the origination date. Expected future Dealer Holdback payments are forecasted for each individual Dealer based on the expected future collections and current advance balance of each Dealer Loan.

We monitor and evaluate Consumer Loan performance on a monthly basis by comparing our current forecasted collection rates to our initial expectations. We use a statistical model that considers a number of credit quality indicators to estimate the expected collection rate for each Consumer Loan at the time of assignment. The credit quality indicators considered in our model include attributes contained in the consumer’s credit bureau report, data contained in the consumer’s credit application, the structure of the proposed transaction, vehicle information, and other factors. We continue to evaluate the expected collection rate for each Consumer Loan subsequent to assignment primarily through the monitoring of consumer payment behavior. Our evaluation becomes more accurate as the Consumer Loans age, as we use actual performance data in our forecast. Since all known, significant credit quality indicators have already been factored into our forecasts and pricing, we are not able to use any specific credit quality indicators to predict or explain variances in actual performance from our initial expectations. Any variances in performance from our initial expectations are the result of Consumer Loans performing differently from historical Consumer Loans with similar characteristics. We periodically adjust our statistical pricing model for new trends that we identify through our evaluation of these forecasted collection rate variances.

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During the second quarter of 2024, we applied an adjustment to our methodology for forecasting the amount of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio, which reduced the forecasted collection rates for Consumer Loans assigned in 2022 through 2024. Consumer Loans assigned in 2022 had continued to underperform our expectations for several quarters. Consumer Loans assigned in 2023 had also begun exhibiting similar trends of underperformance, although not as severe as Consumer Loans assigned in 2022. During the second quarter of 2024, we determined that we had sufficient Consumer Loan performance experience to estimate the magnitude by which we expected Consumer Loans assigned in 2022 through 2024 would likely underperform our historical collection rates on Consumer Loans with similar characteristics. Accordingly, we applied an adjustment to Consumer Loans assigned in 2022 through 2024 to reduce forecasted collection rates to what we believed the ultimate collection rates would be based on these trends. Changes in the amount and timing of forecasted net cash flows are recognized in the period of change as a provision for credit losses. The implementation of this forecast adjustment during the second quarter of 2024 reduced forecasted net cash flows by $147.2 million, or 1.4%, and increased provision for credit losses by $127.5 million.

During the second quarter of 2023, we adjusted our methodology for forecasting the amount and timing of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio through the utilization of more recent Consumer Loan performance and Consumer Loan prepayment data. We had experienced a decrease in Consumer Loan prepayments to below-average levels and, as a result, slowed our forecasted net cash flow timing. The below-average levels of Consumer Loan prepayments continued through the fourth quarter of 2023. Historically, Consumer Loan prepayments have been lower in periods with less availability of consumer credit. Changes in the amount and timing of forecasted net cash flows are recognized in the period of change as a provision for credit losses. The implementation of the adjustment to our forecasting methodology during the second quarter of 2023 reduced forecasted net cash flows by $44.5 million, or 0.5%, and increased provision for credit losses by $71.3 million.

The COVID-19 pandemic created conditions that increased the level of uncertainty associated with our estimate of the amount and timing of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio. During the first quarter of 2020, we applied a subjective adjustment to our forecasting model to reflect our best estimate of the future impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on future net cash flows (“COVID forecast adjustment”), which reduced our estimate of future net cash flows by $162.2 million. We continued to apply the COVID forecast adjustment through the end of 2021, as it continued to represent our best estimate. During the first quarter of 2022, we determined that we had sufficient Consumer Loan performance experience since the lapse of federal stimulus payments and enhanced unemployment benefits to refine our estimate of future net cash flows. Accordingly, during the first quarter of 2022, we removed the COVID forecast adjustment and enhanced our methodology for forecasting the amount and timing of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio through the utilization of more recent data and new forecast variables. Under CECL, changes in the amount and timing of forecasted net cash flows are recorded as a provision for credit losses in the period of change.

The removal of the COVID forecast adjustment and the implementation of the enhanced forecasting methodology during the first quarter of 2022 impacted forecasted net cash flows and provision for credit losses as follows:

Our provision for credit losses for the year ended December 31, 2024, included:

•$320.9 million provision for credit losses on new Consumer Loan assignments, which reduced consolidated net income by $247.1 million, or $19.82 per diluted share; and

•$493.8 million provision for credit losses on forecast changes related to changes in the amount and timing of expected future net cash flows, which reduced consolidated net income by $380.2 million, or $30.49 per diluted share.

Our provision for credit losses for the year ended December 31, 2023, included:

•$322.5 million provision for credit losses on new Consumer Loan assignments, which reduced consolidated net income by $248.3 million, or $19.08 per diluted share; and

•$413.7 million provision for credit losses on forecast changes related to changes in the amount and timing of expected future net cash flows, which reduced consolidated net income by $318.5 million, or $24.48 per diluted share.

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Key Factors. Variances in the amount and timing of future net cash flows from current estimates could materially impact earnings in future periods. A 1% decline in the forecasted future net cash flows on Loans as of December 31, 2024 would have reduced 2024 consolidated net income by approximately $59.7 million.

During periods of economic slowdown or recession, delinquencies, defaults, repossessions, and losses may increase on our Consumer Loans, and Consumer Loan prepayments may decline. These periods are also typically accompanied by decreased consumer demand for automobiles and declining values of automobiles securing outstanding Consumer Loans, which weakens collateral coverage and increases the amount of a loss in the event of default. Significant increases in the inventory of used automobiles during periods of economic recession may also depress the prices at which repossessed automobiles may be sold or delay the timing of these sales. Additionally, inflation, higher gasoline prices, the deferral or resumption of student loan payments, increased focus on climate-related initiatives and regulation, declining stock market values, unstable real estate values, resets of adjustable rate mortgages to higher interest rates, increasing unemployment levels, general availability of consumer credit, or other factors that impact consumer confidence or disposable income could increase loss frequency and decrease consumer demand for automobiles as well as weaken collateral values of automobiles. Because our business is focused on consumers who do not qualify for conventional automobile financing, the actual rates of delinquencies, defaults, repossessions, and losses on our Consumer Loans could be higher than those experienced in the general automobile finance industry and could be more dramatically affected by a general economic downturn.

Premiums Earned

Nature of Estimates Required. We estimate the pattern of future claims on vehicle service contracts. These estimates impact accounts payable and accrued liabilities on our balance sheet and premiums earned on our income statement.

Assumptions and Approaches Used. Premiums from the reinsurance of vehicle service contracts are recognized over the life of the policy in proportion to the expected costs of servicing those contracts. Expected costs are determined based on our historical claims experience. In developing our cost expectations, we stratify our historical claims experience into groupings based on contractual term, as this characteristic has led to different patterns of cost incurrence in the past. We will continue to update our analysis of historical costs under the vehicle service contract program as appropriate, including the consideration of other characteristics that may have led to different patterns of cost incurrence, and revise our revenue recognition timing for any changes in the pattern of our expected costs as they are identified.

Key Factors. Variances in the pattern of future claims from our current estimates would impact the timing of premiums recognized in future periods. A 10% change in premiums earned for the year ended December 31, 2024 would have affected 2024 consolidated net income by approximately $7.4 million.

Contingencies

Nature of Estimates Required. We estimate the likelihood of adverse judgments against us and any resulting damages, fines, or statutory penalties owed. These estimates impact accounts payable and accrued liabilities on our balance sheet and are general and administrative expenses on our income statement.

Assumptions and Approaches Used. With assistance from our legal counsel, we determine if the likelihood of an adverse judgment for various claims, litigation, and regulatory investigations is remote, reasonably possible, or probable. To the extent we believe an adverse judgment is probable and the amount of the judgment is estimable, we recognize a liability. For information regarding current actions to which we are a party, see Note 15 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference.

Key Factors. Negative variances in the ultimate disposition of claims and litigation outstanding from current estimates could result in additional expense in future periods.

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Uncertain Tax Positions

Nature of Estimates Required. We estimate the impact of an uncertain income tax position on the income tax return. These estimates impact income taxes receivable and accounts payable and accrued liabilities on our balance sheet and provision for income taxes on our income statement.

Assumptions and Approaches Used. We follow a two-step approach for recognizing uncertain tax positions. First, we evaluate the tax position for recognition by determining if the weight of available evidence indicates it is more-likely-than-not that the position will be sustained upon examination, including resolution of related appeals or litigation processes, if any. Second, for positions that we determine are more-likely-than-not to be sustained, we recognize the tax benefit as the largest benefit that has a greater than 50% likelihood of being sustained. We establish a reserve for uncertain tax positions liability that is comprised of unrecognized tax benefits and related interest. We adjust this liability in the period in which an uncertain tax position is effectively settled, the statute of limitations expires for the relevant taxing authority to examine the tax position, or more information becomes available.

Key Factors. To the extent we prevail in matters for which a liability has been established or are required to pay amounts in excess of our established liability, our effective income tax rate in future periods could be materially affected.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

We need capital to maintain and grow our business. Our primary sources of capital are cash flows from operating activities, collections of Consumer Loans, and borrowings under: (1) our revolving secured line of credit facility; (2) Warehouse facilities; (3) Term ABS financings; and (4) senior notes. There are various restrictive covenants to which we are subject under each financing arrangement, and we were in compliance with those covenants as of December 31, 2024. For information regarding these financings and the covenants included in the related documents, see Note 9 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference.

On February 16, 2024, we extended the $100.0 million Term ABS 2021-1 financing and extended the date on which the financing will cease to revolve from December 16, 2024 to February 17, 2026.

On February 27, 2024, we completed a $200.0 million Term ABS financing, which was used to repay outstanding indebtedness and for general corporate purposes. The financing has an expected average annualized cost of 7.8% (including upfront fees and other costs), and it will revolve for 36 months, after which it will amortize based upon the cash flows on the underlying Loans.

On March 28, 2024, we completed a $500.0 million Term ABS financing, which was used to repay outstanding indebtedness and for general corporate purposes. The financing has an expected average annualized cost of 6.4% (including upfront fees and other costs), and it will revolve for 24 months, after which it will amortize based upon the cash flows on the underlying Loans.

On June 17, 2024, we extended the maturity of our revolving secured line of credit facility from June 22, 2026 to June 22, 2027. The interest rate on borrowings under the facility has changed from the Bloomberg Short-Term Bank Yield Index rate plus 187.5 basis points to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (“SOFR”) plus 197.5 basis points.

On June 20, 2024, we completed a $550.0 million Term ABS financing, which was used to repay outstanding indebtedness and for general corporate purposes. The financing has an expected average annualized cost of 6.5% (including upfront fees and other costs), and it will revolve for 24 months, after which it will amortize based upon the cash flows on the underlying Loans.

On June 21, 2024, we increased the financing amount on the Term ABS 2022-2 financing from $200.0 million to $300.0 million and extended the date on which the financing will cease to revolve from December 15, 2025 to June 15, 2027.

On September 19, 2024, we increased the financing amount on Warehouse Facility II from $400.0 million to $500.0 million and extended the date on which the facility will cease to revolve from April 30, 2026 to September 20, 2027. The interest rate on borrowings under the facility has been decreased from SOFR plus 230 basis points to SOFR plus 185 basis points.

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On September 19, 2024, we extended the date on which the $500.0 million Term ABS 2019-2 financing will cease to revolve from August 15, 2025 to September 15, 2026 and increased the interest rate under the financing from 5.15% to 5.43%.

On September 26, 2024, we completed a $600.0 million Term ABS financing, which was used to repay outstanding indebtedness and for general corporate purposes. The financing has an expected average annualized cost of 5.2% (including upfront fees and other costs), and it will revolve for 24 months, after which it will amortize based upon the cash flows on the underlying Loans.

On December 5, 2024, we increased the financing amount on Warehouse Facility V from $200.0 million to $250.0 million and extended the date on which the facility will cease to revolve from December 29, 2025 to December 29, 2027. The maturity of the facility was also extended from December 27, 2027 to December 27, 2029. The interest rate on borrowings under the facility has been decreased from SOFR plus 245 basis points to SOFR plus 185 basis points.

On December 20, 2024, we completed a $300.0 million Term ABS financing, which was used to repay outstanding indebtedness and for general corporate purposes. The financing has an expected average annualized cost of 6.3% (including upfront fees and other costs), and it will revolve for 36 months, after which it will amortize based upon the cash flows on the underlying Loans.

Cash and cash equivalents increased to $343.7 million as of December 31, 2024 from $13.2 million as of December 31, 2023. As of December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, we had $1,734.9 million and $1,505.8 million, respectively, in unused and available lines of credit. Our total balance sheet indebtedness increased to $6,352.9 million as of December 31, 2024 from $5,067.5 million as of December 31, 2023, primarily due to the growth in new Consumer Loan assignments and stock repurchases.

A summary as of December 31, 2024 of our material financial obligations requiring future repayments is as follows:

(1)The amounts presented consist solely of principal and do not reflect deferred debt issuance costs of $37.7 million and unamortized debt discount of $1.3 million. We are also obligated to make interest payments at the applicable interest rates, as discussed in Note 9 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference. Based on the actual principal amounts outstanding under our revolving secured line of credit facility, our Warehouse facilities, our Term ABS financings, and our senior notes as of December 31, 2024, the forecasted principal amounts outstanding on all other debt, and the actual interest rates in effect as of December 31, 2024, interest is expected to be approximately $397.8 million during 2025; $271.8 million during 2026; and $180.9 million during 2027 and thereafter.

(2)We have contractual obligations to pay Dealer Holdback to Dealers. Payments of Dealer Holdback are contingent upon the receipt of consumer payments and the repayment of advances. The amounts presented represent our forecast as of December 31, 2024.

(3)A lease liability of $1.6 million is recognized within accounts payable and accrued liabilities in our consolidated balance sheet as of December 31, 2024.

(4)Purchase obligations consist primarily of contractual obligations related to our information system needs.

Based upon anticipated cash flows, management believes that cash flows from operations and our various financing alternatives will provide sufficient financing for debt maturities and for future operations. Our ability to borrow funds may be impacted by economic and financial market conditions. If the various financing alternatives were to become limited or unavailable to us, our operations and liquidity could be materially and adversely affected.

Market Risk

We are exposed primarily to market risks associated with movements in interest rates. Our policies and procedures prohibit the use of financial instruments for speculative purposes.

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Interest Rate Risk. We rely on various sources of financing, some of which contain floating rates of interest and expose us to risks associated with increases in interest rates. Assuming that we maintain a level amount of floating rate debt, an increase in interest rates may result in higher interest expense for our floating rate debt facilities. From time to time, we may manage that risk through the use of derivatives such as interest rate caps.

As of December 31, 2024, we had $0.1 million of floating rate debt outstanding under our revolving secured lines of credit, without interest rate protection. For every 100-basis-point increase in interest rates on our revolving secured lines of credit, annual after-tax earnings would decrease by a negligible amount, assuming we maintain a level amount of floating rate debt.

As of December 31, 2024, we had interest rate cap agreements outstanding to manage the interest rate risk on Warehouse Facility V and Warehouse Facility VIII. However, as of December 31, 2024, there was no floating rate debt outstanding under these facilities.

As of December 31, 2024, we did not have a balance outstanding under Warehouse Facility II, Warehouse IV, and Warehouse Facility VI, which do not have interest rate protection.

As of December 31, 2024, we had $100.0 million in floating rate debt outstanding under Term ABS 2021-1, without interest rate protection. For every 100-basis-point increase in interest rates on Term ABS 2021-1, annual after-tax earnings would decrease by approximately $0.8 million, assuming we maintain a level amount of floating rate debt.

As of December 31, 2024, we had $300.0 million in floating rate debt outstanding under Term ABS 2022-2, without interest rate protection. For every 100-basis-point increase in interest rates on Term ABS 2022-2, annual after-tax earnings would decrease by approximately $2.3 million, assuming we maintain a level amount of floating rate debt.

New Accounting Updates Not Yet Adopted

See Note 2 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference, for information concerning the following new accounting updates and the impact of the implementation of these updates on our financial statements:

•Disclosure Improvements: Codification Amendments in Response to the SEC’s Disclosure Update and Simplification Initiative

•Improvements to Income Tax Disclosures

•Disaggregation of Income Statement Expenses

Forward-Looking Statements

We make forward-looking statements in this report and may make such statements in future filings with the SEC. We may also make forward-looking statements in our press releases or other public or shareholder communications. Our forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and include information about our expectations and possible or assumed future results of operations. When we use any of the words “may,” “will,” “should,” “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “assume,” “forecast,” “estimate,” “intend,” “plan,” “target,” or similar expressions, we are making forward-looking statements.

We claim the protection of the safe harbor for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 for all of our forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements represent our outlook only as of the date of this report. While we believe that our forward-looking statements are reasonable, actual results could differ materially since the statements are based on our current expectations, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that might cause such a difference include, but are not limited to, the factors set forth in Item 1A of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference, and the risks and uncertainties discussed elsewhere in this Form 10-K and in our other reports filed or furnished from time to time with the SEC.

ITEM 7.    MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

The following discussion and analysis should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and related notes contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference.

Overview

We offer financing programs that enable automobile dealers to sell vehicles to consumers, regardless of their credit history. Our financing programs are offered through a nationwide network of automobile dealers who benefit from sales of vehicles to consumers who otherwise could not obtain financing; from repeat and referral sales generated by these same customers; and from sales to customers responding to advertisements for our financing programs, but who actually end up qualifying for traditional financing.

For the year ended December 31, 2023, consolidated net income was $286.1 million, or $21.99 per diluted share, compared to $535.8 million, or $39.32 per diluted share, for the same period in 2022. The decrease in consolidated net income was primarily due to increases in provision for credit losses and interest expense. Our results for the year ended December 31, 2023 included:

•A larger decrease in forecasted collection rates

The decrease in forecasted collection rates decreased forecasted net cash flows from our Loan portfolio by $206.3 million, or 2.3%, compared to a decrease in forecasted collection rates during 2022 that decreased forecasted net cash flows from our Loan portfolio by $59.7 million, or 0.7%.

•A decrease in forecasted profitability for Consumer Loans assigned in 2020 through 2022

Forecasted profitability was lower than our estimates at December 31, 2022, due to a decline in forecasted collection rates during 2023 and slower forecasted net cash flow timing during 2023, primarily as a result of a decrease in Consumer Loan prepayments to below-average levels.

•Growth in Consumer Loan assignment volume and the average balance of our Loan portfolio

Unit and dollar volumes grew 18.6% and 14.4%, respectively, as compared to 2022. The average balance of our Loan portfolio increased 5.0% as compared to 2022.

•An increase in the initial spread on Consumer Loan assignments

The initial spread increased to 21.3% compared to 20.1% on Consumer Loans assigned in 2022.

•An increase in our average cost of debt

The increase in our average cost of debt was primarily a result of higher interest rates on recently-completed or extended secured financings and the repayment of older secured financings with lower interest rates.

•A decrease in common shares outstanding due to stock repurchases

We repurchased 0.4 million shares, or 2.8% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of the year.

For the year ended December 31, 2022, consolidated net income was $535.8 million, or $39.32 per diluted share, compared to $958.3 million, or $59.52 per diluted share, for the same period in 2021. The decrease in consolidated net income was primarily due to an increase in provision for credit losses, a decrease in finance charges, and an increase in operating expenses. Our results for the year ended December 31, 2022 included:

•A decrease in forecasted collection rates

The decrease in forecasted collection rates decreased forecasted net cash flows from our Loan portfolio by $59.7 million, or 0.7%, compared to an increase in forecasted collection rates during 2021 that increased forecasted net cash flows from our Loan portfolio by $326.1 million, or 3.4%.

•A decrease in forecasted profitability for Consumer Loans assigned in 2021 and 2022

Forecasted profitability for Consumer Loans assigned in 2022 was lower than our initial estimates and forecasted profitability for Consumer Loans assigned in 2021 was lower than our estimates at December 31, 2021, due to a decline in forecasted collection rates during 2022.

•Growth in Consumer Loan assignment volume and a decline in the average balance of our Loan portfolio

Unit and dollar volumes grew 4.4% and 14.5%, respectively, as compared to 2021. The average balance of our Loan portfolio decreased 5.7% as compared to 2021.

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•A decrease in the initial spread on Consumer Loan assignments

The initial spread decreased to 20.1% compared to 20.3% on Consumer Loans assigned in 2021.

•An increase in operating expenses

The increase in operating expenses was primarily due to investments in our business to enhance our product and transform our technology systems to be more Dealer- and customer-focused.

•A decrease in common shares outstanding due to stock repurchases

We repurchased 1.5 million shares, or 10.4% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of the year.

Critical Success Factors

Critical success factors include our ability to accurately forecast Consumer Loan performance, access capital on acceptable terms, and maintain or grow Consumer Loan volume at the level and on the terms that we anticipate, with the objective to maximize economic profit over the long term. Economic profit is a non-GAAP financial measure we use to evaluate our financial results and determine profit-sharing for team members. We also use economic profit as a framework to evaluate business decisions and strategies. Economic profit measures how efficiently we utilize our total capital, both debt and equity, and is a function of the return on capital in excess of the cost of capital and the amount of capital invested in the business.

Consumer Loan Metrics

At the time a Consumer Loan is submitted to us for assignment, we forecast future expected cash flows from the Consumer Loan. Based on the amount and timing of these forecasts and expected expense levels, an advance or one-time purchase payment is made to the related Dealer at a price designed to maximize economic profit.

We use a statistical model to estimate the expected collection rate for each Consumer Loan at the time of assignment. We continue to evaluate the expected collection rate for each Consumer Loan subsequent to assignment. Our evaluation becomes more accurate as the Consumer Loans age, as we use actual performance data in our forecast. By comparing our current expected collection rate for each Consumer Loan with the rate we projected at the time of assignment, we are able to assess the accuracy of our initial forecast. The following table compares our aggregated forecast of Consumer Loan collection rates as of December 31, 2023, with the aggregated forecasts as of December 31, 2022, as of December 31, 2021, and at the time of assignment, segmented by year of assignment:

(1)Represents the total forecasted collections we expect to collect on the Consumer Loans as a percentage of the repayments that we were contractually owed on the Consumer Loans at the time of assignment. Contractual repayments include both principal and interest. Forecasted collection rates are negatively impacted by canceled Consumer Loans as the contractual amount owed is not removed from the denominator for purposes of computing forecasted collection rates.

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Consumer Loans assigned in 2018 through 2020 have yielded forecasted collection results significantly better than our initial estimates, while Consumer Loans assigned in 2015, 2016, 2021, and 2022 have yielded forecasted collection results significantly worse than our initial estimates. For all other assignment years presented, actual results have been close to our initial estimates.

For the year ended December 31, 2023, forecasted collection rates improved for Consumer Loans assigned in 2018 and 2019, declined for Consumer Loans assigned in 2020 through 2022, and were generally consistent with expectations at the start of the period for all other assignment years presented.

For the year ended December 31, 2022, forecasted collection rates improved for Consumer Loans assigned in 2014, 2016, and 2017, declined for Consumer Loans assigned in 2021 and 2022, and were generally consistent with expectations at the start of the period for all other assignment years presented.

The changes in forecasted collection rates impacted forecasted net cash flows (forecasted collections less forecasted Dealer Holdback payments) as follows:

During the second quarter of 2023, we adjusted our methodology for forecasting the amount and timing of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio through the utilization of more recent Consumer Loan performance and Consumer Loan prepayment data. During the first half of 2023, we experienced a decrease in Consumer Loan prepayments to below-average levels and, as a result, slowed our forecasted net cash flow timing. The below-average levels of Consumer Loan prepayments continued through the fourth quarter of 2023. Historically, Consumer Loan prepayments have been lower in periods with less availability of consumer credit. Changes in the amount and timing of forecasted net cash flows are recognized in the period of change through provision for credit losses. The implementation of the adjustment to our forecasting methodology during the second quarter of 2023 reduced forecasted net cash flows by $44.5 million, or 0.5%, and increased provision for credit losses by $71.3 million.

We have experienced increased levels of uncertainty associated with our estimate of the amount and timing of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio since the beginning of 2020, with realized collections underperforming our expectations during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, outperforming our expectations following the distribution of federal stimulus payments and enhanced unemployment benefits, and underperforming our expectations during the current economic environment. For the period from January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2023, the cumulative change to our forecast of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio has been an increase of $13.8 million, or 0.2%. Forecasting collection rates accurately is challenging, so we have designed our business model to produce acceptable levels of profitability across our portfolio, even if Loan performance is less than forecasted in the aggregate.

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The following table presents information on Consumer Loan assignments for each of the last 10 years: