AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG)

ITEM 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a safe harbor for forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as “anticipates”, “believes”, “expects”, “projects”, “estimates”, “intends”, “plans”, “seeks”, “could”, “may”, “should”, “will” or the negative version of those words or other comparable terminology. Such forward-looking statements include statements relating to: expectations concerning market and other conditions and their effect on future premiums, revenues, earnings, investment activities and the amount and timing of share repurchases and special dividends; recoverability of asset values; expected losses and the adequacy of reserves for asbestos, environmental pollution and mass tort claims; rate changes; and improved loss experience.

Actual results and/or financial condition could differ materially from those contained in or implied by such forward-looking statements for a variety of reasons including but not limited to the following and the risks and uncertainties AFG describes in the “Risk Factors” section of its most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K, as updated by its other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including:

•whether or not the sale of Charleston Harbor Resort & Marina closes and AFG’s net gain as a result of the sale;

•changes in financial, political and economic conditions, including changes in interest and inflation rates and impacts from tariffs or other trade actions, currency fluctuations and extended economic recessions or expansions in the U.S. and/or abroad;

•performance of securities markets;

•new legislation or declines in credit quality or credit ratings that could have a material impact on the valuation of securities in AFG’s investment portfolio;

•the availability of capital;

•changes in insurance law or regulation, including changes in statutory accounting rules, including modifications to capital requirements;

•changes in the legal environment affecting AFG or its customers;

•tax law and accounting changes;

•levels of natural catastrophes and severe weather, terrorist activities (including any nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological events), incidents of war or losses resulting from pandemics, civil unrest and other major losses;

•disruption caused by cyber-attacks or other technology breaches or failures by AFG or its business partners and service providers, which could negatively impact AFG’s business or reputation and/or expose AFG to litigation;

•development of insurance loss reserves and establishment of other reserves, particularly with respect to amounts associated with asbestos and environmental claims;

•availability of reinsurance and ability of reinsurers to pay their obligations;

•competitive pressures;

•the ability to obtain adequate rates and policy terms;

•changes in AFG’s credit ratings or the financial strength ratings assigned by major ratings agencies to AFG’s operating subsidiaries; and

•the impact of the conditions in the international financial markets and the global economy relating to AFG’s international operations.

29

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued

The forward-looking statements herein are made only as of the date of this report. The Company assumes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of Management’s Discussion and Analysis is to provide a discussion and analysis of the financial statements and other statistical data that management believes will enhance the understanding of AFG’s financial condition, changes in financial condition and results of operations. The tables and narrative that follow are presented in a manner that is consistent with the information that AFG’s management uses to make operational decisions and allocate capital resources. They are provided to demonstrate the nature of the transactions and events that could impact AFG’s financial results. This discussion should be read in conjunction with the financial statements beginning on page 2.

OVERVIEW

Financial Condition

AFG is organized as a holding company with almost all of its operations being conducted by subsidiaries. AFG, however, has continuing cash needs for administrative expenses, the payment of principal and interest on borrowings, shareholder dividends and taxes. Therefore, certain analyses are most meaningfully presented on a parent only basis while others are best done on a total enterprise basis. In addition, because its businesses are financial in nature, AFG does not prepare its consolidated financial statements using a current-noncurrent format. Consequently, certain traditional ratios and financial analysis tests are not meaningful.

Results of Operations

Through the operations of its subsidiaries, AFG is engaged primarily in property and casualty insurance, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses.

AFG reported net earnings of $191 million ($2.29 per share, diluted) for the first three months of 2026 compared to $154 million ($1.84 per share, diluted) for the first three months of 2025, reflecting higher underwriting profit.

Outlook

Management expects overall premium growth and strong underwriting results in the current property and casualty insurance market. In addition, management anticipates improved returns on alternative investments, relative to the returns earned in 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, will have a positive impact on net investment income beginning in the second half of 2026.

AFG’s financial condition, results of operations and cash flows are impacted by the economic, legal and regulatory environment. Economic inflation, social inflation and other economic conditions may impact premium levels, loss cost trends and investment returns.

Management believes that AFG’s strong financial position and current liquidity and capital at its subsidiaries will give AFG the flexibility to continue to effectively address and respond to anticipated and unanticipated challenges. AFG’s insurance subsidiaries continue to have capital at or in excess of the levels required by ratings agencies in order to maintain their current ratings, and the parent company does not have any debt maturities until 2030.

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES

Significant accounting policies are summarized in Note A — “Accounting Policies” to the financial statements. The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires management to make estimates and assumptions that can have a significant effect on amounts reported in the financial statements. As more information becomes known, these estimates and assumptions change and, thus, impact amounts reported in the future. The areas where management believes the degree of judgment required to determine amounts recorded in the financial statements is most significant are as follows:

•the valuation of investments, including the determination of impairment allowances,

•the establishment of insurance reserves, especially asbestos and environmental-related reserves,

•the recoverability of reinsurance, and

•the establishment of asbestos and environmental liabilities of former railroad and manufacturing operations.

30

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued

For a discussion of these policies, see Management’s Discussion and Analysis — “Critical Accounting Policies” in AFG’s 2025 Form 10-K.

LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

Ratios

AFG’s debt to total capital ratio on a consolidated basis is shown below (dollars in millions):

The ratio of debt to total capital is a non-GAAP measure that management believes is useful for investors, analysts and ratings agencies to evaluate AFG’s financial strength and liquidity and to provide insight into how AFG finances its operations. The ratio is calculated by dividing the principal amount of AFG’s long-term debt by its total capital, which includes long-term debt and shareholders’ equity (excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (loss), net of tax). In addition, maintaining a ratio of debt, excluding subordinated debt and debt secured by real estate (if any), to total capital of 35% or lower is a financial covenant in AFG’s bank credit facility.

Condensed Consolidated Cash Flows

AFG’s principal sources of cash include insurance premiums, income from its investment portfolio and proceeds from the maturities, redemptions and sales of investments. Insurance premiums in excess of acquisition expenses and operating costs are invested until they are needed to meet policyholder obligations or made available to the parent company through dividends to cover debt obligations and corporate expenses, and to provide returns to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities as detailed in AFG’s Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows are shown below (in millions):

Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities   AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations typically produce positive net operating cash flows as premiums collected and investment income exceed policy acquisition costs, claims payments and operating expenses. AFG’s net cash provided by operating activities is impacted by the level and timing of premiums, claim and expense payments and recoveries from reinsurers. Cash flows provided by operating activities also include the activity of AFG’s managed investment entities (collateralized loan obligations (“CLO”)) other than those activities included in investing or financing activities. The changes in the assets and liabilities of the managed investment entities included in operating activities increased cash flows from operating activities by $162 million during the first three months of 2026 and $42 million in the first three months of 2025, accounting for a $120 million increase in cash flows from operating activities in the 2026 period compared to the 2025 period. As discussed in Note A — “Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities” to the financial statements, AFG has no right to use the CLO assets and no obligation to pay the CLO liabilities and such assets and li

[Excerpt truncated for page length; source filing is linked above.]

Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

OBJECTIVE

The objective of Management’s Discussion and Analysis is to provide a discussion and analysis of the financial statements and other statistical data that management believes will enhance the understanding of AFG’s financial condition, changes in financial condition and results of operations. The tables and narrative that follow are presented in a manner that is consistent with the information that AFG’s management uses to make operational decisions and allocate capital resources. They are provided to demonstrate the nature of the transactions and events that could impact AFG’s financial results. This discussion should be read in conjunction with the financial statements beginning on page F-1.

OVERVIEW

Financial Condition

AFG is organized as a holding company with almost all of its operations being conducted by subsidiaries. AFG, however, has continuing cash needs for administrative expenses, the payment of principal and interest on borrowings, shareholder dividends and taxes. Therefore, certain analyses are most meaningfully presented on a parent only basis while others are best done on a total enterprise basis. In addition, because its businesses are financial in nature, AFG does not prepare its consolidated financial statements using a current-noncurrent format. Consequently, certain traditional ratios and financial analysis tests are not meaningful.

Results of Operations

Through the operations of its subsidiaries, AFG is engaged primarily in property and casualty insurance, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses.

AFG reported net earnings of $299 million ($3.58 per share, diluted) for the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to $255 million ($3.03 per share, diluted) for the fourth quarter of 2024, reflecting higher underwriting profit, partially offset by lower net investment income from AFG’s alternative investment portfolio.

Full year 2025 net earnings were $842 million ($10.08 per share, diluted) compared to $887 million ($10.57 per share, diluted) in 2024. Higher underwriting profit and the favorable impact of higher yields and average balances on net investment income from fixed income investments were more than offset by lower net investment income from alternative investments.

Outlook

Management expects overall premium growth and strong underwriting results in the current property and casualty insurance market. In addition, management anticipates improved returns on alternative investments relative to the 2.5% earned in 2025 will have a positive impact on net investment income beginning in the second half of 2026.

31

Table of Contents

AFG’s financial condition, results of operations and cash flows are impacted by the economic, legal and regulatory environment. Economic inflation, social inflation and other economic conditions may impact premium levels, loss cost trends and investment returns. For a more comprehensive list of risks, see “Item 1A — Risk Factors.”

Management believes that AFG’s strong financial position and current liquidity and capital at its subsidiaries will give AFG the flexibility to continue to effectively address and respond to anticipated and unanticipated challenges. AFG’s insurance subsidiaries continue to have capital at or in excess of the levels required by ratings agencies in order to maintain their current ratings, and the parent company does not have any debt maturities until 2030.

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES

Significant accounting policies are summarized in Note A — “Accounting Policies” to the financial statements. The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires management to make estimates and assumptions that can have a significant effect on amounts reported in the financial statements. As more information becomes known, these estimates and assumptions change and, thus, impact amounts reported in the future. The areas where management believes the degree of judgment required to determine amounts recorded in the financial statements is most significant are as follows:

•the valuation of investments, including the determination of impairment allowances,

•the establishment of insurance reserves, especially asbestos and environmental-related reserves,

•the recoverability of reinsurance, and

•the establishment of asbestos and environmental liabilities of former railroad and manufacturing operations.

See “Liquidity and Capital Resources — Uncertainties” for a discussion of insurance reserves, recoverables from reinsurers and contingencies related to APU Consolidated’s former operations and “Liquidity and Capital Resources — Investments” for a discussion of the allowance for credit losses (impairments) on investments.

LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

Ratios

AFG’s debt to total capital ratio on a consolidated basis is shown below (dollars in millions). Management intends to maintain the ratio of debt to capital at or below 30% and intends to maintain the capital of its significant insurance subsidiaries at or above levels currently indicated by rating agencies as appropriate for the current ratings.

The ratio of debt to total capital is a non-GAAP measure that management believes is useful for investors, analysts and ratings agencies to evaluate AFG’s financial strength and liquidity and to provide insight into how AFG finances its operations. The ratio is calculated by dividing the principal amount of AFG’s long-term debt by its total capital, which includes long-term debt and shareholders’ equity (excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (loss), net of tax). In addition, maintaining a ratio of debt, excluding subordinated debt and debt secured by real estate (if any), to total capital of 35% or lower is a financial covenant in AFG’s bank credit facility.

The NAIC’s model law for risk-based capital (“RBC”) applies to property and casualty companies. RBC formulas determine the amount of capital that an insurance company needs so that it has an acceptable expectation of not becoming financially impaired. At December 31, 2025, the capital ratios of all AFG insurance companies exceeded the RBC requirements.

Condensed Consolidated Cash Flows

AFG’s principal sources of cash include insurance premiums, income from its investment portfolio and proceeds from the maturities, redemptions and sales of investments. Insurance premiums in excess of acquisition expenses and operating costs are invested until they are needed to meet policyholder obligations or made available to the parent company through

32

Table of Contents

dividends to cover debt obligations and corporate expenses, and to provide returns to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities as detailed in AFG’s Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows are shown below (in millions):

Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities   AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations typically produce positive net operating cash flows as premiums collected and investment income exceed policy acquisition costs, claims payments and operating expenses. AFG’s net cash provided by operating activities is impacted by the level and timing of premiums, claim and expense payments and recoveries from reinsurers. Cash flows provided by operating activities also include the activity of AFG’s managed investment entities (collateralized loan obligations (“CLO”)) other than those activities included in investing or financing activities. The changes in the assets and liabilities of the managed investment entities included in operating activities increased cash flows from operating activities by $70 million in 2025, reduced cash flows from operating activities by $80 million in 2024 and increased cash flows from operating activities by $305 million in 2023, resulting in a $150 million increase in cash flows from operating activities in 2025 compared to 2024 and a $385 million decrease in cash flows from operating activities in 2024 compared to 2023. As discussed in Note A — “Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities” to the financial statements, AFG has no right to use the CLO assets and no obligation to pay the CLO liabilities and such assets and liabilities are shown separately in AFG’s Balance Sheet. Excluding the impact of the managed investment entities, net cash provided by operating activities was $1.46 billion, $1.23 billion and $1.67 billion in 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.

Net Cash Provided by (Used in) Investing Activities   AFG’s investing activities consist primarily of the investment of funds provided by its property and casualty businesses. Investing activities also include the purchase and disposal of managed investment entity investments, which are presented separately in AFG’s Balance Sheet. Net investment activity in the managed investment entities was a $10 million use of cash in 2025 compared to a $377 million source of cash in 2024, resulting in a $387 million decrease in net cash provided by investing activities in 2025 compared to 2024. See Note A — “Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities” and Note G — “Managed Investment Entities” to the financial statements. Excluding the activity of the managed investment entities, investing activities resulted in uses of cash of $825 million in 2025 and $282 million in 2024, an increase of $543 million reflecting the investment of cash in fixed maturity investments.

Net cash provided by investing activities was $95 million in 2024 compared to $414 million in 2023, a decrease of $319 million. Net investment activity in the managed investment entities was a $377 million source of cash in 2024 compared to $762 million in 2023, resulting in a $385 million decrease in net cash provided by investing activities in 2024 compared to 2023. Investing activities for 2024 include the fourth quarter acquisitions of an insurance agency and a consulting business for $9 million in cash. Investing activities for 2023 include the July 2023 acquisition of Crop Risk Services (“CRS”) for $234 million in cash. Excluding these acquisitions and the activity of the managed investment entities, investing activities resulted in uses of cash of $273 million in 2024 and $114 million in 2023.

Net Cash Used in Financing Activities   AFG’s financing activities consist primarily of issuances and retirements of long-term debt, issuances and repurchases of Common Stock and dividend payments. Net cash used in financing activities was $377 million in 2025 compared to $1.07 billion in 2024, a decrease of $689 million. The net proceeds from AFG’s issuance of $350 million in 5.00% Senior Notes in September 2025 was a $344 million source of cash in 2025. AFG paid cash dividends totaling $606 million in 2025 compared to $788 million in 2024, resulting in a $182 million decrease in net cash used in financing activities in 2025 compared to 2024. In 2025, AFG repurchased $99 million of its Common Stock compared to no repurchases in 2024. Financing activities also include issuances and retirements of managed investment entity liabilities, which are nonrecourse to AFG and presented separately in AFG’s Balance Sheet. Retirements of managed investment entity liabilities exceeded issuances by $28 million in 2025 compared to $295 million in 2024, resulting in a $267 million decrease in net cash used in financing activities in 2025 compared to 2024. See Note A — “Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities” and Note G — “Managed Investment Entities” to the financial statements.

Net cash used in financing activities was $1.07 billion in 2024 compared to $2.03 billion in 2023, a decrease of $965 million. AFG paid cash dividends totaling $788 million in 2024 compared to $684 million in 2023, resulting in a $104 million increase in net cash used in financing activities in 2024 compared to 2023. There were no debt retirements in

33

Table of Contents

2024 compared to $21 million in debt retirements in 2023. In 2024, AFG did not repurchase any of its Common Stock compared to repurchases of $213 million in 2023. Retirements of managed investment entity liabilities exceeded issuances by $295 million in 2024 compared to $1.13 billion in 2023, resulting in an $833 million decrease in net cash used in financing activities in 2024 compared to 2023.

Parent and Subsidiary Liquidity

Parent Holding Company Liquidity   Management believes AFG has sufficient resources to meet its liquidity requirements. If funds generated from operations, including dividends, tax payments and borrowings from subsidiaries, are insufficient to meet fixed charges in any period, AFG would be required to utilize parent company cash and investments or to generate cash through borrowings, sales of other assets, or similar transactions.

AFG’s operations continue to generate significant excess capital for future returns of capital to shareholders in the form of regular and special cash dividends and through opportunistic share repurchases or to be deployed into its property and casualty businesses as management identifies the potential for profitable organic growth, and opportunities to expand through acquisitions of established businesses or start-ups that meet target return thresholds.

In September 2025, AFG issued $350 million in 5.00% Senior Notes due in September 2035. The net proceeds of this offering were used for general corporate purposes.

During 2025, AFG repurchased 799,398 shares of its Common Stock for $99 million and paid special cash dividends totaling $334 million ($2.00 per share in both March and November). On February 3, 2026, AFG declared a special cash dividend of $1.50 per share, payable on February 25, 2026. The aggregate amount of this special dividend will be approximately $125 million.

During 2024, AFG paid special cash dividends totaling $545 million ($2.50 per share in February and $4.00 per share in November).

During 2023, AFG repurchased 1,872,544 shares of its Common Stock for $213 million and paid special cash dividends totaling $466 million ($4.00 per share in February and $1.50 per share in November).

AFG may, at any time and from time to time, seek to retire or purchase its outstanding debt through cash purchases or exchanges for equity or debt, in open-market purchases, privately negotiated transactions or otherwise. Such repurchases or exchanges, if any, will be upon such terms and at such prices as management may determine, and will depend on prevailing market conditions, AFG’s liquidity requirements, contractual restrictions and other factors. During 2023, AFG repurchased $23 million principal amount of its senior notes for $21 million cash.

All debentures and notes issued by AFG are rated investment grade by two nationally recognized rating agencies. AFG maintains a shelf registration statement under which it can offer additional equity or debt securities. The shelf registration provides AFG with flexibility to access the capital markets from time to time as market and other conditions permit.

At December 31, 2025, AFG (parent) held approximately $529 million in cash and investments. Management believes that AFG’s cash balances are held at stable banking institutions, although the amounts of many of these deposits are in excess of federally insured balances. AFG can borrow up to $450 million under its revolving credit facility, which expires in June 2028. Amounts borrowed under this agreement bear interest at rates ranging from 1.00% to 1.75% (based on AFG’s credit rating, currently 1.25%) over a SOFR-based floating rate. There were no borrowings under AFG’s credit facility, or under any other parent company short-term borrowing arrangements, during 2025 or 2024.

Under a tax allocation agreement with AFG, all 80% (or more) owned U.S. subsidiaries generally pay taxes to (or recover taxes from) AFG based on each subsidiary’s contribution to amounts due under AFG’s consolidated tax return.

Subsidiary Liquidity   The liquidity requirements of AFG’s insurance subsidiaries relate primarily to the policyholder claims and underwriting expenses and payments of dividends and taxes to AFG. Historically, cash flows from premiums and investment income have generally provided more than sufficient funds to meet these requirements. Funds received in excess of cash requirements are generally invested in marketable securities. In addition, the insurance subsidiaries generally hold a significant amount of highly liquid, short duration investments.

For statutory accounting purposes, equity securities of non-affiliates are generally carried at fair value. At December 31, 2025, AFG’s insurance companies owned equity securities with a fair value of $785 million. Decreases in market prices could adversely affect the insurance group’s capital, potentially impacting the amount of dividends available or

34

Table of Contents

necessitating a capital contribution. Conversely, increases in market prices could have a favorable impact on the group’s dividend-paying capability.

Property and casualty reserves for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses were $15.09 billion at December 31, 2025 and include case reserves and claims incurred but not reported (“IBNR”). The ultimate amount to be paid to settle reserves is an estimate, subject to significant uncertainty. Actual payments to settle claims cannot be determined until a settlement is reached with the claimant. Final claim settlements may vary significantly from estimated amounts. See “Uncertainties — Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves” below. The timing of future payments for the next twelve months and beyond could vary materially from historical payment patterns due to, among other things, changes in claim reporting and payment patterns and large unanticipated settlements.

AFG believes its insurance subsidiaries maintain sufficient liquidity to pay claims and underwriting expenses. In addition, these subsidiaries have sufficient capital to meet commitments in the event of unforeseen reserve deficiencies, inadequate premium rates or reinsurer insolvencies. Management believes that the capital levels in AFG’s insurance subsidiaries are adequate to maintain its business and rating agency ratings. Nonetheless, changes in statutory accounting rules, changes in rating agency measures, significant declines in the fair value of the insurance subsidiaries’ investment portfolios or significant ratings downgrades on these investments, could create a need for additional capital.

Condensed Parent Only Cash Flows

AFG’s parent holding company only condensed cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities are shown below (in millions):

Parent Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities   Parent holding company cash flows from operating activities consist primarily of dividends and tax payments received from AFG’s insurance subsidiaries, reduced by tax payments to the IRS and holding company interest and other expenses. Parent holding company net cash provided by operating activities was $582 million in 2025 compared to $712 million in 2024 and $719 million in 2023. The decrease in net cash provided by operating activities in 2025 compared to 2024 and 2023 was due primarily to lower cash dividends received from subsidiaries.

Parent Net Cash Provided by (Used in) Investing Activities   Parent holding company investing activities consist of capital contributions to and returns of capital from subsidiaries and parent company investment activity. Parent holding company net cash used in investing activities was $182 million in 2025 compared to net cash provided by investing activities of $72 million in 2024 and $225 million in 2023. The $254 million increase in net cash used in investing activities reflects the investment of cash in fixed maturity securities and lower maturities and redemptions of investments in 2025 compared to 2024. The $153 million decrease in net cash provided by investing activities in 2024 compared to 2023 was due primarily to lower balances of invested assets.

Parent Net Cash Used in Financing Activities   Parent company financing activities consist primarily of the issuance and retirement of long-term debt, repurchases of AFG Common Stock and dividends to shareholders. Significant long-term debt and Common Stock transactions are discussed above under “Parent Holding Company Liquidity.” Parent holding company net cash used in financing activities was $348 million in 2025 compared to $769 million in 2024 and $901 million in 2023. The $421 million decrease in net cash used in financing activities in 2025 compared to 2024 reflects $344 million in net proceeds from AFG’s issuance of $350 million in 5.00% Senior Notes in September 2025 and lower dividends paid to shareholders (due primarily to special dividends of $4.00 per share in 2025 compared to special dividends of $6.50 per share in 2024), partially offset by $99 million in repurchases of Common Stock in 2025 compared to no repurchases in 2024. The $132 million decrease in net cash used in financing activities in 2024 compared to 2023 reflects no repurchases of Common Stock in 2024 compared to repurchases of Common Stock of $213 million in 2023, partially offset by higher dividends paid to shareholders (due primarily to special dividends of $6.50 per share in 2024 compared to special dividends of $5.50 per share in 2023).

Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements

See Note O — “Additional Information — Financial Instruments — Unfunded Commitments” to the financial statements.

35

Table of Contents

Investments

AFG attempts to optimize investment income while building the value of its portfolio, placing emphasis upon total long-term performance.

AFG’s investment portfolio at December 31, 2025, contained $11.05 billion in fixed maturity securities classified as available for sale and carried at fair value with unrealized gains and losses included in accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) and $91 million in fixed maturities classified as trading with holding gains and losses included in net investment income. In addition, AFG’s investment portfolio includes $567 million in equity securities carried at fair value with holding gains and losses included in realized gains (losses) on securities and $218 million in equity securities carried at fair value with holding gains and losses included in net investment income. AFG’s investment portfolio also includes $2.42 billion in investments accounted for using the equity method (limited partnerships and similar investments). Under the equity method, AFG records its share of the earnings or losses of the investee based on when it is reported by the investee in its financial statements rather than in the period in which the investee declares a dividend. AFG’s share of the earnings or losses from equity method investments is included in net investment income and is generally recorded on a quarter lag due to the timing of the receipt of the investee’s financial statements.

Unrealized gains and losses on AFG’s fixed maturity securities are included in shareholders’ equity after adjustments for deferred income taxes.

Fixed income investment funds are generally invested in securities with intermediate-term maturities with an objective of optimizing total return while allowing flexibility to react to changes in market conditions. At December 31, 2025, the average life of AFG’s fixed maturities was about 4.4 years.

Fair values for AFG’s portfolio are determined by AFG’s internal investment professionals using data from nationally recognized pricing services, non-binding broker quotes and other market information. Fair values of equity securities are determined by published closing prices when available. For AFG’s fixed maturity portfolio, approximately 90% was priced using pricing services at December 31, 2025 and 3% was priced using non-binding broker quotes. The remaining 7% was priced internally using a variety of inputs including credit spreads, trade information, prices of comparable securities, estimates of cash flow and other security specific features. When prices obtained for the same security vary, AFG’s internal investment professionals select the price they believe is most indicative of an exit price. For additional information on determination of fair value, see Note D — “Fair Value Measurements” to the financial statements.

The pricing services use a variety of observable inputs to estimate fair value of fixed maturities that do not trade on a daily basis. Based upon information provided by the pricing services, these inputs include, but are not limited to, recent reported trades, benchmark yields, issuer spreads, bids or offers, reference data, and measures of volatility. Included in the pricing of structured securities are estimates of the rate of future prepayments and defaults of principal over the remaining life of the underlying collateral. Due to the lack of transparency in the process that brokers use to develop prices, valuations that are based on brokers’ prices are classified as Level 3 in the GAAP hierarchy unless the price can be corroborated, for example, by comparison to similar securities priced using observable inputs.

Valuation techniques utilized by pricing services and prices obtained from external sources are reviewed by AFG’s internal investment professionals who are familiar with the securities being priced and the markets in which they trade to ensure the fair value determination is representative of an exit price. To validate the appropriateness of the prices obtained, these investment managers consider widely published indices (as benchmarks), recent trades, changes in interest rates, general economic conditions and the credit quality of the specific issuers. In addition, AFG communicates directly with pricing services regarding the methods and assumptions used in pricing, including verifying, on a test basis, the inputs used by the services to value specific securities.

In general, the fair value of AFG’s fixed maturity investments is inversely correlated to changes in interest rates. The following table demonstrates the sensitivity of such fair values to reasonably likely changes in interest rates by illustrating the estimated effect on AFG’s fixed maturity portfolio that an immediate increase of 100 basis points in the interest rate yield curve would have had at December 31, 2025 (dollars in millions). Effects of increases or decreases from the 100 basis points illustrated would be approximately proportional.

Approximately 96% of the fixed maturities held by AFG at December 31, 2025, were rated “investment grade” (credit rating of AAA to BBB) by nationally recognized rating agencies, 2% were rated “non-investment grade” and 2% were not

36

Table of Contents

rated. Investment grade securities generally bear lower yields and lower degrees of risk than those that are unrated and non-investment grade. Management believes that the high-quality investment portfolio should generate a stable and predictable investment return.

AFG has approximately $80 million of direct exposure to office commercial real estate through property ownership, mortgages or equity method investments. AFG’s fixed maturity portfolio includes securities (the majority of which are AAA-rated) with a carrying value of approximately $280 million that have minimal exposure to office commercial real estate.

Summarized information for the unrealized gains and losses recorded in AFG’s Balance Sheet at December 31, 2025, is shown in the following table (dollars in millions). There were $484 million of available for sale fixed maturity securities with no unrealized gains or losses at December 31, 2025.

The table below sets forth the scheduled maturities of AFG’s available for sale fixed maturity securities at December 31, 2025, based on their fair values. Securities with sinking funds are reported at average maturity. Actual maturities may differ from contractual maturities because certain securities may be called or prepaid by the issuers.

37

Table of Contents

The table below (dollars in millions) summarizes the unrealized gains and losses on fixed maturity securities by dollar amount:

The following table (dollars in millions) summarizes the unrealized losses for all securities with unrealized losses by issuer quality and the length of time those securities have been in an unrealized loss position:

To evaluate fixed maturities for expected credit losses (impairment), management considers the following:

(a)whether the unrealized loss is credit-driven or a result of changes in market interest rates,

(b)the extent to which fair value is less than cost basis,

(c)cash flow projections received from independent sources,

(d)historical operating, balance sheet and cash flow data contained in issuer SEC filings and news releases,

(e)near-term prospects for improvement in the issuer and/or its industry,

(f)third-party research and communications with industry specialists,

(g)financial models and forecasts,

(h)the continuity of interest payments, maintenance of investment grade ratings and hybrid nature of certain investments,

(i)discussions with issuer management, and

(j)ability and intent to hold the investment for a period of time sufficient to allow for anticipated recovery in fair value.

Based on its analysis of the factors listed above, management believes AFG will recover its cost basis (net of any allowance) in the fixed maturity securities with unrealized losses and that AFG has the ability to hold the securities until they recover in value and had no intent to sell them at December 31, 2025. Although AFG has the ability to continue holding its fixed maturity investments with unrealized losses, its intent to hold them may change due to deterioration in the issuers’ creditworthiness, decisions to lessen exposure to a particular issuer or industry, asset/liability management decisions, market movements, changes in views about appropriate asset allocation or the desire to offset taxable realized gains. Should AFG’s ability or intent change regarding a particular security, a charge for impairment would likely be required. While it is not possible to accurately predict if or when a specific security will become impaired, increases in the allowance for credit losses could be material to results of operations in future periods. Significant declines in the fair value of AFG’s investment portfolio could have a significant adverse effect on AFG’s liquidity. For information on AFG’s realized gains (losses) on securities, see “Results of Operations — Realized Gains (Losses) on Securities.”

38

Table of Contents

Uncertainties

As more fully explained in the following paragraphs, management believes that the areas posing the greatest risk of material loss are the adequacy of its insurance reserves and contingencies arising out of its former railroad and manufacturing operations.

Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves   Estimating the liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (“LAE”) is inherently judgmental and is influenced by factors that are subject to significant variation. Determining the liability is a complex process incorporating input from many areas of the Company including actuarial, underwriting, pricing, claims and operations management.

The estimates of liabilities for unpaid claims and for expenses of investigation and adjustment of unpaid claims are based upon: (i) the accumulation of case estimates for losses reported prior to the close of the accounting periods on direct business written (“case reserves”); (ii) estimates received from ceding reinsurers and insurance pools and associations; (iii) estimates of claims incurred but not reported (including possible development on known claims); (iv) estimates (based on experience) of expense for investigating and adjusting claims; and (v) the current state of law and coverage litigation.

The process used to determine the total reserve for liabilities involves estimating the ultimate incurred losses and LAE, adjusted for amounts already paid on the claims. The IBNR reserve is derived by estimating the ultimate unpaid reserve liability and subtracting case reserves for loss and LAE. See Note N — “Insurance — Insurance Reserves” to the financial statements for a discussion of the factors considered and actuarial methods used in determining management’s best estimate of the ultimate liability for unpaid losses and LAE.

The following table shows (in millions) the breakdown of AFG’s property and casualty insurance reserves between case reserves, IBNR reserves and LAE reserves (estimated amounts required to adjust, record and settle claims, other than the claim payments themselves) at December 31, 2025 and gross written premiums for the year ended December 31, 2025.

While current factors and reasonably likely changes in variable factors are considered in estimating the liability for unpaid losses and LAE, there is no method or system that can eliminate the risk of actual ultimate results differing from such estimates.

Following is a discussion of certain critical variables affecting the estimation of loss reserves of the more significant long-tail lines of business (asbestos and environmental liabilities are separately discussed below). Many other variables may also impact ultimate claim costs.

An important assumption underlying reserve estimates is that the cost trends implicitly built into development patterns will continue into the future. However, future results could vary due to an unexpected change in the underlying cost trends. This unexpected change could arise from a variety of sources including a general increase in economic inflation, social inflation, new medical technologies, or other factors such as those listed below in connection with AFG’s largest lines of

39

Table of Contents

business. It is not possible to isolate and measure the potential impact of just one of these variables, and future cost trends could be partially impacted by several such variables. However, it is reasonable to address the sensitivity of the reserves to potential impact from changes in these variables by measuring the effect of a possible overall 1% change in future cost trends that may be caused by one or more variables. Utilizing the effect of a 1% change in overall cost trends enables changes greater than 1% to be estimated by extrapolation. Each additional 1% change in the cost trend would increase the effect on net earnings by an amount slightly (about 5%) greater than the effect of the previous 1%. For example, if a 1% change in cost trends in a line of business would change net earnings by $20 million, a 2% change would change net earnings by approximately $41 million.

The estimated cumulative adverse impact that a 1% change in cost trends in AFG’s more significant long-tail lines of property and casualty business (exceeding 5% of total reserves) would have on net earnings is shown below (in millions).

The judgments and uncertainties surrounding management’s reserve estimation process and the potential for reasonably possible variability in management’s most recent reserve estimates may also be viewed by looking at how recent historical estimates of reserves have developed. The following table shows (dollars in millions) what the impact on AFG’s net earnings would be on the more significant lines of business if the December 31, 2025, reserves (net of reinsurance) were to develop at the same rate as the average development of the most recent five years.

(a)Adverse (favorable), net of tax effect.

(b)Excludes asbestos and environmental liabilities.

The following discussion describes key assumptions and important variables that affect the estimate of the reserve for loss and LAE of the more significant lines of business and explains what caused them to change from assumptions used in the preceding period.

Other Liability — Occurrence

This long-tail line of business consists of coverages protecting the insured against legal liability resulting from negligence, carelessness, or a failure to act causing property damage or personal injury to others. Some of the important variables affecting estimation of loss reserves for other liability — occurrence include:

•Litigious climate

•Unpredictability of judicial decisions regarding coverage issues

•Magnitude of jury awards

•Outside counsel costs

•Timing of claims reporting

AFG recorded adverse prior year reserve development of $175 million in 2025, $210 million in 2024 and $96 million in 2023 related to its other liability — occurrence coverage due primarily to continued claim severity increases in excess and umbrella liability coverages.

While management applies the actuarial methods discussed in Note N — “Insurance — Insurance Reserves” to the financial statements, more judgment is involved in arriving at the final reserve to be held. For recent accident years, more weight is given to the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method.

40

Table of Contents

Workers’ Compensation

This long-tail line of business provides coverage to employees who may be injured in the course of employment. Some of the important variables affecting estimation of loss reserves for workers’ compensation include:

•Legislative actions and regulatory and legal interpretations

•Future medical cost inflation

•Economic conditions

•Frequency of reopening claims previously closed

•Advances in medical equipment and processes

•Pace and intensity of employee rehabilitation

•Changes in the use of pharmaceutical drugs

•Changes in mortality trends for permanently injured workers

Approximately 21% and 25% of AFG’s workers’ compensation reserves at December 31, 2025 relate to policies written in Florida and California, respectively.

AFG recorded favorable prior year reserve development of $108 million in 2025, $128 million in 2024 and $116 million in 2023, related to its workers’ compensation coverage due to lower than anticipated medical severity.

Other Liability — Claims Made

This long-tail line of business includes coverage for directors’ and officers’ liability, errors and omissions, cyber, and mergers and acquisitions liability. Some of the important variables affecting estimation of loss reserves for other liability — claims made include:

•Economic conditions

•Variability of stock prices or company valuations

•New or expanded theories of liability

•Trends in jury awards

•Changes in the propensity to settle a claim

•Changes in the legal climate requiring higher levels of spending for the insured’s defense

AFG recorded favorable prior year reserve development of $18 million in 2025, adverse prior year reserve development of $9 million in 2024 and $47 million of favorable prior year reserve development in 2023, related to its other liability — claims made coverage. AFG has generally experienced lower than anticipated claim frequency and severity in its executive and professional liability businesses. However, during 2024, an increase in claim severity for one specific book of business more than offset the favorable experience in other products.

Commercial Auto/Truck Liability/Medical

This line of business is a mix of coverage protecting the insured against legal liability for property damage or personal injury to others arising from the operation of commercial motor vehicles. The property damage liability exposure is usually short-tail with relatively prompt reporting and settlement of claims. The bodily injury and medical payments exposures are longer-tailed; although the claim reporting is relatively prompt, the final settlement can take longer to achieve. Some of the important variables affecting estimation of loss reserves for commercial auto/truck liability/medical are similar to other liability — occurrence and include:

•Magnitude of jury awards

•Unpredictability of judicial decisions regarding coverage issues

•Litigious climate and trends

•Change in frequency of severe accidents

•Health care costs and utilization of medical services by injured parties

AFG recorded favorable prior year reserve development of $1 million in 2025 for this line of business. In 2024 and 2023, AFG recorded adverse prior year reserve development of $36 million and $29 million, respectively, for this line of business due to higher than anticipated claim severity.

Recoverables from Reinsurers and Availability of Reinsurance   AFG is subject to credit risk with respect to its reinsurers, as reinsurance contracts do not relieve AFG of its liability to policyholders. To mitigate this risk, substantially all reinsurance is ceded to companies rated “A” or better by S&P or is secured by “funds withheld” or other collateral.

The availability and cost of reinsurance are subject to prevailing market conditions, which are beyond AFG’s control and may affect AFG’s level of business and profitability. Although the cost of certain reinsurance programs may increase,

41

Table of Contents

management believes that AFG will be able to maintain adequate reinsurance coverage at acceptable rates without a material adverse effect on AFG’s results of operations. AFG’s gross and net combined ratios are shown in the table below.

See Item 1 — Business — “Property and Casualty Insurance Segment — Reinsurance” for more information on AFG’s reinsurance programs. For additional information on the effect of reinsurance on AFG’s historical results of operations see Note N — “Insurance — Reinsurance” to the financial statements.

The following table illustrates the effect that purchasing property and casualty reinsurance has had on AFG’s combined ratio over the last three years.

Asbestos and Environmental-related (“A&E”) Insurance Reserves   Asbestos and environmental reserves of the property and casualty group consisted of the following (in millions):

Asbestos reserves include claims asserting alleged injuries and damages from exposure to asbestos. Environmental reserves include claims relating to polluted sites.

Asbestos claims against manufacturers, distributors or installers of asbestos products were presented under the products liability section of their policies, which typically had aggregate limits that capped an insurer’s liability. In addition, asbestos claims are being presented as “non-products” claims, such as those by installers of asbestos products and by property owners or operators who allegedly had asbestos on their property, under the premises or operations section of their policies. Unlike products exposures, these non-products exposures typically had no aggregate limits, creating greater exposure for insurers. Further, in an effort to seek additional insurance coverage, some insureds with installation activities who have substantially eroded their products coverage are presenting new asbestos claims as non-products operations claims or attempting to reclassify previously settled products claims as non-products claims to restore a portion of previously exhausted products aggregate limits.

Approximately one-half of AFG’s net asbestos reserves relate to policies written directly by AFG subsidiaries. Claims from these policies generally are product-oriented claims with only a limited amount of non-products exposures and are dominated by small to mid-sized commercial entities that are mostly regional policyholders with few national target defendants. The remainder is assumed reinsurance business that includes exposures from 1954 to 1983. The asbestos and environmental assumed claims are ceded by various insurance companies under reinsurance treaties. A majority of the individual assumed claims have exposures of less than $100,000 to AFG. Asbestos losses assumed include some of the industry known manufacturers, distributors and installers. Pollution losses include industry known insured names and sites.

Establishing reserves for A&E claims relating to policies and participations in reinsurance treaties and former operations is subject to uncertainties that are significantly greater than those presented by other types of claims. For this group of claims, traditional actuarial techniques that rely on historical loss development trends cannot be used and a range of reasonably possible losses cannot be estimated. Case reserves and expense reserves are established by the claims department as specific policies are identified. In addition to the case reserves established for known claims, management establishes additional reserves for claims not yet known or reported and for possible development on known claims. These additional reserves are management’s best estimate based on periodic comprehensive studies and internal reviews adjusted for payments and identifiable changes, supplemented by management’s review of industry information about such claims, with due consideration to individual claim situations.

Management believes that estimating the ultimate liability for asbestos claims presents a unique and difficult challenge to the insurance industry due to, among other things, difficulty in predicting the number of future claims, inconsistent court

42

Table of Contents

decisions, an increase in bankruptcy filings as a result of asbestos-related liabilities, unresolved issues such as whether coverage exists, novel theories of coverage, how claims are to be allocated among triggered policies and implicated years, whether claimants who exhibit no signs of illness will be successful in pursuing their claims and judicial interpretations that often expand theories of recovery and broaden the scope of coverage. Environmental claims likewise present challenges in prediction, due to uncertainty regarding the interpretation of insurance policies, complexities regarding multi-party involvements at sites, evolving cleanup standards and protracted time periods required to assess the level of cleanup required at contaminated sites.

While management believes that AFG’s reserves for A&E claims are a reasonable estimate of ultimate liability for such claims, actual results may vary materially from the amounts currently recorded due to the factors listed above. A 1% variation in loss cost trends, caused by any of the factors previously described, would change net earnings by approximately $26 million.

The following factors could impact AFG’s A&E reserves and payments:

•There is interest at the state level to attempt to legislatively address asbestos liabilities and the manner in which asbestos claims are resolved. These developments are fluid and could result in piecemeal state-by-state solutions.

•The manner by which bankruptcy courts are addressing asbestos liabilities is in flux.

•AFG’s insureds may make claims alleging significant non-products exposures.

AFG tracks its A&E claims by policyholder. The following table shows, by type of claim, the number of policyholders that did not receive any payments in the calendar year separate from policyholders that did receive a payment. Policyholder counts represent policies written by AFG subsidiaries and do not include assumed reinsurance.

Amounts paid (net of reinsurance recoveries) for asbestos and environmental claims, including LAE, were as follows (in millions):

The survival ratio is a measure often used by industry analysts to compare A&E reserves’ strength among companies. This ratio is typically calculated by dividing reserves for A&E exposures by the three-year average of paid losses, and therefore measures the number of years that it would take to pay off current reserves based on recent average payments. Because this ratio can be significantly impacted by a number of factors such as loss payout variability, caution should be exercised in attempting to determine reserve adequacy based simply on the survival ratio. At December 31, 2025, the property and casualty insurance segment’s three-year survival ratios compare favorably with industry survival ratios published by A.M. Best (as of December 31, 2024, and adjusted for several large portfolio transfers) as detailed in the following table:

During the third quarter of 2025, AFG completed an in-depth internal review of its asbestos and environmental exposures relating to the run-off operations of its property and casualty insurance segment. AFG annually conducts a comprehensive

43

Table of Contents

review of its asbestos and environmental reserves. In connection with its annual reviews, AFG engages with outside counsel and, as appropriate, engineering and consulting firms and specialty actuarial firms.

During the 2025 internal review, no new trends were identified and recent claims activity was generally consistent with AFG’s expectations resulting from its in-depth internal reviews in the prior four years, and the most recent external study in 2020. As a result, and consistent with the internal review in the third quarter of 2024, the 2025 review resulted in no net change to AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment’s asbestos and environmental reserves.

Contingencies related to Subsidiaries’ Former Operations   The A&E reviews and external study discussed above also encompassed reserves for various environmental and occupational injury and disease claims and other contingencies arising out of the railroad operations disposed of by APU Consolidated’s predecessor and certain manufacturing operations disposed of by APU Consolidated and its subsidiaries and by Great American Financial Resources, Inc. AFG recorded pretax special non-core A&E charges of $25 million in 2025, $14 million in 2024 and $15 million in 2023 to increase liabilities for those operations as a result of the internal reviews. Liabilities for claims and contingencies arising from these former railroad and manufacturing operations totaled $109 million at December 31, 2025. For a discussion of the uncertainties in determining the ultimate liability, see Note M — “Contingencies” to the financial statements.

44

Table of Contents

MANAGED INVESTMENT ENTITIES

Accounting standards require AFG to consolidate its investments in collateralized loan obligation (“CLO”) entities that it manages and owns an interest in (in the form of debt). See Note A — “Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities” and Note G — “Managed Investment Entities” to the financial statements. The effect of consolidating these entities is shown in the tables below (in millions). The “Before CLO Consolidation” columns include AFG’s investment and earnings in the CLOs on an unconsolidated basis.

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING BALANCE SHEET

(*)Elimination of the fair value of AFG’s investment in CLOs and related accrued interest.

45

Table of Contents

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING STATEMENT OF EARNINGS

(a)Includes a loss of $5 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 and income of $8 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, representing the change in fair value of AFG’s CLO investments and $3 million and $4 million of income in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2024, respectively, in CLO management fees earned.

(b)Elimination of the change in fair value of AFG’s investments in the CLOs, including $14 million and $12 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2024, respectively, in distributions recorded as interest expense by the CLOs.

(c)Elimination of management fees earned by AFG.

46

Table of Contents

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING STATEMENT OF EARNINGS - CONTINUED

(a)Includes income of $5 million in 2025 and $33 million in 2024, representing the change in fair value of AFG’s CLO investments and $11 million and $13 million of income in 2025 and 2024, respectively, in CLO management fees earned.

(b)Elimination of the change in fair value of AFG’s investments in the CLOs, including $36 million and $37 million in 2025 and 2024, respectively, in distributions recorded as interest expense by the CLOs.

(c)Elimination of management fees earned by AFG.

47

Table of Contents

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING STATEMENT OF EARNINGS - CONTINUED

(a)Includes income of $27 million representing the change in fair value of AFG’s CLO investments and $16 million in CLO management fees earned.

(b)Elimination of the change in fair value of AFG’s investments in the CLOs, including $29 million in distributions recorded as interest expense by the CLOs.

(c)Elimination of management fees earned by AFG.

RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

General

AFG’s net earnings, determined in accordance with GAAP, include certain items that may not be indicative of its ongoing core operations. Core net operating earnings excludes realized gains (losses) on securities because such gains and losses are influenced significantly by financial markets, interest rates and the timing of sales. In addition, special charges related to coverage that AFG no longer writes, such as asbestos and environmental exposures, are excluded from core earnings.

48

Table of Contents

The following table (in millions, except per share amounts) identifies non-core items and reconciles net earnings to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure. AFG believes core net operating earnings is a useful tool for investors and analysts in analyzing ongoing operating trends and for management to evaluate financial performance against historical results because it believes this provides a more comparable measure of its continuing business.

(*)Adjustments to income tax expense related to sales of subsidiaries in prior years.

Net earnings were $299 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to $255 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 reflecting higher core net operating earnings. Core net operating earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 increased $43 million compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 reflecting higher underwriting profit, partially offset by lower net investment income from AFG’s alternative investment portfolio (partnerships and similar investments and AFG-managed CLOs). Net realized losses on securities in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2024 include $2 million and $1 million of after-tax losses, respectively, resulting from the change in fair value of equity securities that were still held at the balance sheet date.

Net earnings were $842 million for the full-year of 2025 compared to $887 million in 2024 reflecting lower core net operating earnings. Core net operating earnings for 2025 decreased $42 million compared to 2024 reflecting lower net investment income from AFG’s alternative investment portfolio, partially offset by higher underwriting profit and higher investment income outside of alternative investments. Net realized gains on securities in 2025 of $8 million and 2024 of

49

Table of Contents

less than $1 million include after-tax gains of $15 million and $19 million, respectively, resulting from the change in fair value of equity securities that were still held at the balance sheet date.

Net earnings were $887 million for the full-year of 2024 compared to $852 million in 2023 reflecting the impact of net realized losses on securities in 2023 and higher core net operating earnings. Core net operating earnings for 2024 increased $7 million compared to 2023. Higher investment income outside of alternative investments was partially offset by lower returns on AFG’s alternative investment portfolio and lower underwriting profit. Net realized gains on securities of less than $1 million in 2024 and net realized losses on securities of $28 million in 2023 include $19 million of after-tax gains and $2 million of after-tax losses, respectively, resulting from the change in fair value of equity securities that were still held at the balance sheet date.

RESULTS OF OPERATIONS — THREE MONTHS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2025 AND 2024

Segmented Statement of Earnings

AFG reports its operations as two segments: (i) Property and casualty insurance (“P&C”) and (ii) Other, which includes holding company costs and income and expenses related to the managed investment entities (“MIEs”).

AFG’s net earnings, determined in accordance with GAAP, include certain items that may not be indicative of its ongoing core operations. The following tables for the three months ended December 31, 2025 and 2024 identify such items by segment and reconcile net earnings to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure that AFG believes is a useful tool for investors and analysts in analyzing ongoing operating trends (in millions):

50

Table of Contents

(*)See the reconciliation of core earnings to GAAP net earnings under “Results of Operations — General” for details on the tax impacts of these reconciling items.

Property and Casualty Insurance Segment — Results of Operations

Performance measures such as underwriting profit or loss and related combined ratios are often used by property and casualty insurers to help users of their financial statements better understand the company’s performance. Underwriting profitability is measured by the combined ratio, which is a sum of the ratios of losses and loss adjustment expenses, and commissions and other underwriting expenses to premiums. A combined ratio under 100% indicates an underwriting profit. The combined ratio does not reflect net investment income, other income, other expenses or federal income taxes.

AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations contributed $440 million in pretax earnings in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to $378 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, an increase of $62 million (16%). The increase in pretax earnings reflects higher underwriting profit, partially offset by lower investment income from AFG’s alternative investment portfolio (partnerships and similar investments and AFG-managed CLOs).

51

Table of Contents

The following table details AFG’s earnings before income taxes from its property and casualty insurance operations for the three months ended December 31, 2025 and 2024 (dollars in millions):

AFG’s statutory combined ratio has been better than the U.S. industry average for 38 of the most recent 40 years. Management believes that AFG’s insurance operations have performed better than the industry as a result of its specialty niche focus, product line diversification, stringent underwriting discipline and alignment of compensation incentives.

AFG reports the underwriting performance of its Specialty property and casualty insurance business in the following sub-segments: (i) Property and transportation, (ii) Specialty casualty and (iii) Specialty financial.

Historically, AFG reported the results of its internal reinsurance facility (that assumes business from several of AFG’s Specialty property and casualty businesses) in an Other Specialty sub-segment. Beginning in 2025, the internal reinsurance results are included within the same sub-segments as the ceding businesses to align with senior management’s evolving view of the program. The overall results for AFG’s Specialty property and casualty insurance operations are not impacted by this change. Information from prior periods has been recast for consistent presentation.

To understand the overall profitability of particular lines, the timing of claims payments and the related impact of investment income must be considered. Certain “short-tail” lines of business (primarily property coverages) generally have quick loss payouts, which reduce the time funds are held, thereby limiting investment income earned thereon. In contrast, “long-tail” lines of business (primarily liability coverages and workers’ compensation) generally have payouts that are either structured over many years or take many years to settle, thereby significantly increasing investment income earned on related premiums received.

52

Table of Contents

Gross Written Premiums

Gross written premiums (“GWP”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were $2.09 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to $2.04 billion for the fourth quarter of 2024, an increase of $42 million (2%). Detail of AFG’s property and casualty gross written premiums is shown below (dollars in millions):

Reinsurance Premiums Ceded

Reinsurance premiums ceded (“Ceded”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were 31% of gross written premiums for the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to 29% of gross written premiums for the fourth quarter of 2024, an increase of 2 percentage points. Detail of AFG’s property and casualty reinsurance premiums ceded is shown below (dollars in millions):