AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) FY 2022 MD&A

Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations ("MD&A") is designed to provide a reader of AGNC Investment Corp.'s consolidated financial statements with a narrative from the perspective of management and should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and accompanying notes included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Our MD&A is presented in the following sections:

•Executive Overview

•Financial Condition

•Summary of Critical Accounting Estimates

•Results of Operations

•Liquidity and Capital Resources

•Forward-Looking Statements

EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW

We are a leading provider of private capital to the U.S. housing market, enhancing liquidity in the residential real estate mortgage markets and, in turn, facilitating home ownership in the U.S. We invest primarily in Agency RMBS on a leveraged basis. These investments consist of residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by a U.S. Government-sponsored enterprise, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, or by a U.S. Government agency, such as Ginnie Mae. We may also invest in other assets related to the housing, mortgage or real estate markets that are not guaranteed by a GSE or U.S. Government agency.

We are internally managed with the principal objective of providing our stockholders with favorable long-term returns on a risk-adjusted basis through attractive monthly dividends. We generate income from the interest earned on our investments, net of associated borrowing and hedging costs, and net realized gains and losses on our investment and hedging activities. We fund our investments primarily through collateralized borrowings structured as repurchase agreements. We operate in a manner to qualify to be taxed as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code.

The size and composition of our investment portfolio depends on the investment strategies we implement, availability of attractively priced investments, suitable financing to appropriately leverage our investment portfolio and overall market conditions. Market conditions are influenced by a variety of factors, including interest rates, prepayment expectations, liquidity, housing prices, unemployment rates, general economic conditions, government participation in the mortgage market, regulations and relative returns on other assets.

Trends and Recent Market Impacts

Financial markets experienced broad-based weakness in 2022. Persistently high inflation, coupled with macroeconomic and monetary policy uncertainty, led to a sharp decline in investor sentiment and a significant repricing in the fixed income markets. Interest rates across the yield curve moved materially higher, as the Federal Reserve (the "Fed") raised the Federal Funds rate 425 basis points, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury security increased nearly 250 basis points for the year, resulting in the worst annual total return for these bonds in decades. The sharp increase in U.S. Treasury yields drove mortgage rates to their highest level in twenty years, and, similar to the 10-year U.S. Treasury, the total return for the unlevered Bloomberg U.S. MBS Index, which tracks the performance of fixed-rate Agency RMBS, was -12% for the year, its worst annual performance since the Index's inception in 1976.

Agency RMBS often initially underperform other fixed income products during significant market downturns. Investors typically sell Agency RMBS holdings prior to other less liquid fixed income asset classes to meet cash needs and redemption obligations during market disruptions and liquidity events. This dynamic caused Agency RMBS to significantly underperform interest rate hedges and other fixed income assets during the year. As a result, Agency RMBS spreads to benchmark interest rates across the coupon stack reached historically wide levels.

This spread widening was the primary driver of AGNC’s total comprehensive income (loss) per diluted common share of $(4.22) for fiscal year 2022, compared to $0.44 for fiscal year 2021, and economic return (loss) on tangible net book value per common share of (28.4)% for fiscal year 2022, compared to 2.9% for fiscal year 2021, comprised of dividends declared per common share and the decline in our tangible net book value per common share. Net spread and dollar roll income, excluding "catch-up" amortization, (a non-GAAP measure) per diluted common share was $3.11 for fiscal year 2022, compared to $3.02 for fiscal year 2021, as higher asset yields and our pay-fixed/receive-variable interest rate swap portfolio offset rising repo funding costs and moderating TBA dollar roll income during the year.

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Given the challenging market conditions, we prioritized risk management throughout 2022, characterized by a large interest rate hedge position and lower leverage relative to historical levels. For the year, our interest rate hedge ratio averaged approximately 118% of our Agency repurchase agreements and net TBA position. Our average "at risk" leverage ratio for the year was 7.8x our tangible stockholders' equity and, despite the decline in our stockholders' equity, was only slightly higher than 7.7x for fiscal year 2021, due to the combination of asset sales, portfolio runoff and capital markets transactions. As of December 31, 2022, our interest rate hedge ratio was 124% of our funding liabilities and our "at risk" leverage ratio was 7.4x tangible equity. Our liquidity position remained within normal operating levels during the year as a percentage of our stockholders' equity. As of December 31, 2022, our unencumbered cash and Agency RMBS totaled $4.3 billion, or 59% of our tangible stockholders' equity, and unencumbered credit securities totaled $100 million.

While 2022 was a difficult year for investors in all asset classes, the challenging conditions in the fixed income markets peaked in September and October 2022 when monetary policy and macro-economic uncertainty was at its highest point. A positive shift in market sentiment began to take hold in November 2022, which we believe marked the beginning of the recovery of the Agency RMBS market. Although market shifts typically evolve over time and are not linear, we believe that the longer-term outlook for Agency RMBS has improved substantially. Our favorable outlook is based on several positive dynamics. First, we expect Agency RMBS spreads to benchmark interest rates to remain wider than historical standards as the Fed’s outsized ownership of Agency RMBS gradually diminishes. Second, we expect the demand for Agency RMBS to outpace supply, even without Fed asset purchases. Higher interest rates and a slower housing market will likely limit the supply of new mortgages, while lower refinance activity should limit runoff of the Fed’s portfolio. Third, we expect that interest rate volatility will decline as the Fed slows the pace of interest rate hikes and the tightening of monetary conditions reaches an inflection point. Collectively, these factors create a favorable macroeconomic backdrop for Agency RMBS investors and could prove durable over the intermediate to long-term. We believe AGNC is well-positioned with our tangible net book value "at risk" leverage at the lower end of our historical operating range and a conservative hedge profile to take advantage of favorable investment opportunities as they arise.

For information regarding non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measure please refer to Results of Operations included in this MD&A below. For information regarding the sensitivity of our tangible net book value per common share to changes in interest rates and mortgage spreads, please refer to Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk in this form 10-K.

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Market Information

The following table summarizes benchmark interest rates and prices of generic fixed rate Agency RMBS as of each date presented below:

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1.Price information is for generic instruments only and is not reflective of our specific portfolio holdings. Price information is as of 3:00 p.m. (EST) on such date and can vary by source. Prices in the table above were obtained from Barclays. Interest rates were obtained from Bloomberg.

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The following table summarizes mortgage and credit spreads as of each date presented below:

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1.30-Year Current Coupon Yield represents yield on new production Agency RMBS. 30-Year Current Coupon Yield and 30-Year Mortgage Rate are sourced from Bloomberg.

2.CRT and CDX spreads sourced from JP Morgan. CMBS spreads are the average of spreads sourced from JP Morgan and Wells Fargo.

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FINANCIAL CONDITION

As of December 31, 2022 and 2021, our investment portfolio totaled $59.5 billion and $82.0 billion, respectively, consisting of: $40.9 billion and $54.4 billion investment securities, at fair value, respectively; $18.6 billion and $27.1 billion net TBA securities, at fair value, respectively; and, as of December 31, 2021, $0.4 billion forward settling non-Agency securities, at fair value. The following table is a summary of our investment securities as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 (dollars in millions):

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1.TBA securities are presented net of long and short positions. For further details of our TBA securities refer to Note 5 of our Consolidated Financial Statements in this Form 10-K.

2.Table excludes other mortgage credit investments of $25 million as of December 31, 2022 accounted for under the equity method of accounting.

3.December 31, 2021 balance includes $0.4 billion of forward settling non-Agency securities reported in derivative assets/(liabilities) on the accompanying consolidated balance sheets.

TBA and forward settling securities are recorded as derivative instruments in our accompanying consolidated financial statements, and our TBA dollar roll transactions represent a form of off-balance sheet financing. As of December 31, 2022 and 2021, our TBA position and forward settling securities had a net carrying value of $0.2 billion and $(44) million, respectively, reported in derivative assets/(liabilities) on our accompanying consolidated balance sheets. The net carrying value represents the difference between the fair value of the underlying security in the TBA contract or forward purchase agreement and the price to be paid or received for the underlying security.

As of December 31, 2022 and 2021, the weighted average yield on our investment securities (excluding TBA and forward settling securities) was 3.37% and 2.43%, respectively.

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The following tables summarize certain characteristics of our fixed rate Agency RMBS portfolio, inclusive of TBA securities, as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 (dollars in millions):

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1.Specified pools include pools backed by lower balance loans with original loan balances of up to $200K, HARP pools (defined as pools that were issued between May 2009 and December 2018 and backed by 100% refinance loans with original LTVs ≥ 80%), and pools backed by loans 100% originated in New York and Puerto Rico. As of December 31, 2022, lower balance specified pools had a weighted average original loan balance of $123,000 and $140,000 for 15-year and 30-year securities, respectively, and HARP pools had a weighted average original LTV of 128% and 138% for 15-year and 30-year securities, respectively.

2.Portfolio yield incorporates a projected life CPR based on forward rate assumptions as of December 31, 2022.

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1.See Note 1 of preceding table for specified pool composition. As of December 31, 2021, lower balance specified pools had a weighted average original loan balance of $119,000 and $117,000 for 15-year and 30-year securities, respectively, and HARP pools had a weighted average original LTV of 127% and 138% for 15-year and 30-year securities, respectively.

2.Portfolio yield incorporates a projected life CPR based on forward rate assumptions as of December 31, 2021.

For additional details regarding our CRT and non-Agency securities, including credit ratings, as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, please refer to Note 3 of our Consolidated Financial Statements included under Item 8 of this Form 10-K.

SUMMARY OF CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES

Our critical accounting estimates involve estimates that require management to make judgments that are subjective in nature. We rely on our experience and analysis of historical and current market data to arrive at what we believe to be reasonable estimates. Under different conditions, we could report materially different amounts based on such estimates. For additional information regarding our significant accounting policies please refer to Note 2 of our Consolidated Financial Statements included under Item 8 of this Form 10-K.

Interest Income

The effective yield on our Agency RMBS and non-Agency securities of high credit quality is highly impacted by our estimate of future prepayments. We accrue interest income based on the outstanding principal amount and contractual terms of these securities, and we amortize or accrete premiums and discounts associated with our purchase of these securities into interest income over their projected lives, incorporating scheduled contractual payments and estimated prepayments, using the effective interest method. The weighted average cost basis of our securities as of December 31, 2022 was 103.4% of par value; therefore, changes in our actual or projected prepayments can significantly alter the effective yield on our assets.

Future prepayment rates are difficult to predict, and we rely on a third-party service provider and our experience and analysis of historical and current market data to arrive at what we believe to be reasonable estimates. Our third-party service provider estimates prepayment rates over the remaining life of our securities using models that incorporate the forward yield curve, current mortgage rates, mortgage rates on the outstanding loans, age and size of the outstanding loans, loan-to-value ratios, interest rate volatility and other factors. We review the estimated prepayment rates for reasonableness, giving consideration to historical prepayment rates, current market conditions and other factors we believe are likely to impact the rate of prepayments on our portfolio, and based on our judgment we may adjust the third-party estimates.

We review our actual and anticipated prepayment experience on at least a quarterly basis, and effective yields are recalculated when differences arise between (i) our previous prepayment estimates and (ii) actual prepayments to date and current estimates of future prepayments. If the actual and estimated future prepayment experience differs from our prior estimate of prepayments, we are required to record an adjustment in the current period to the amortization or accretion of premiums and discounts for the cumulative difference in the effective yield from inception through the reporting date. We commonly refer to this adjustment as "catch-up" premium amortization cost/benefit.

The most significant factor impacting prepayment rates on our securities is changes to long-term interest rates. Prepayment rates generally increase when interest rates fall and decrease when interest rates rise. Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk in this Form 10-K includes the estimated change in the weighted average projected CPR of our investments and in the corresponding weighted average yield on our investments should interest rates instantaneously go up or down by 25, 50, and 75 basis points. However, there are a variety of other factors that may impact the rate of prepayments on our securities. Consequently, our actual experience and future estimates of prepayments could differ materially from our estimates.

At the time we purchase CRT and non-Agency securities that are not of high credit quality, we determine an effective interest rate based on our estimate of the timing and amount of cash flows and our cost basis. On at least a quarterly basis, we review the estimated cash flows and make appropriate adjustments based on input and analysis received from external sources, internal models, our judgment about interest rates, prepayment rates, including collateral call provisions, timing and amount of estimated credit losses, and other factors. Any resulting changes in effective yield are recognized prospectively based on the current amortized cost of the investment as adjusted for credit impairment, if any.

RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

In addition to the results presented in accordance with GAAP, our results of operations discussed below include certain non-GAAP financial information, including "economic interest income," "economic interest expense," "net spread and dollar roll income" and "net spread and dollar roll income, excluding 'catch-up' premium amortization, available to common

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stockholders," "estimated taxable income (loss)" and the related per common share measures and certain financial metrics derived from such non-GAAP information.

"Economic interest income" is measured as interest income (GAAP measure), adjusted to (i) exclude retrospective "catch-up" adjustments to premium amortization cost associated with changes in projected CPR estimates and (ii) include TBA dollar roll implied interest income. "Economic interest expense" is measured as interest expense (GAAP measure) adjusted to include TBA dollar roll implied interest expense/benefit and interest rate swap periodic cost/income. "Net spread and dollar roll income, excluding 'catch-up' premium amortization, available to common stockholders" is measured as comprehensive income (loss) available (attributable) to common stockholders (GAAP measure) adjusted to: (i) exclude gains/losses on investment securities recognized through net income and other comprehensive income and gains/losses on derivative instruments and other securities (GAAP measures) and (ii) include interest rate swap periodic income/cost, TBA dollar roll income and other miscellaneous interest income/expense. As defined "Net spread and dollar roll income, excluding 'catch-up' premium amortization, available to common stockholders" includes (i) the components of "economic interest income" and "economic interest expense", plus (ii) other miscellaneous interest income/expense, and less (iii) total operating expenses and dividends on preferred stock (GAAP measures).

By providing such measures, in addition to the related GAAP measures, we believe we give greater transparency into the information used by our management in its financial and operational decision-making. We also believe it is important for users of our financial information to consider information related to our current financial performance without the effects of certain measures and one-time events that are not necessarily indicative of our current investment portfolio performance and operations.

Specifically, in the case "net spread and dollar roll income, excluding 'catch-up' premium amortization, available to common stockholders" and components of such measure, "economic interest income" and "economic interest expense," we believe the inclusion of TBA dollar roll income is meaningful as TBAs, which are accounted for under GAAP as derivative instruments with gains and losses recognized in other gain (loss) in our consolidated statement of comprehensive income, are economically equivalent to holding and financing generic Agency RMBS using short-term repurchase agreements. Similarly, we believe that the inclusion of periodic interest rate swap settlements is meaningful as interest rate swaps are the primary instrument we use to economically hedge against fluctuations in our borrowing costs and it is more indicative of our total cost of funds than interest expense alone. Additionally, we believe the exclusion of "catch-up" premium amortization adjustments is meaningful as it excludes the cumulative effect from prior reporting periods due to current changes in future prepayment expectations and, therefore, exclusion of such adjustments is more indicative of the current earnings potential of our investment portfolio. In the case of "estimated taxable income (loss)", we believe it is meaningful information because it directly relates to the amount of dividends that we are required to distribute to maintain our REIT qualification status.

However, because such measures are incomplete measures of our financial performance and involve differences from results computed in accordance with GAAP, they should be considered as supplementary to, and not as a substitute for, results computed in accordance with GAAP. In addition, because not all companies use identical calculations, our presentation of such non-GAAP measures may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures of other companies. Furthermore, estimated taxable income can include certain information that is subject to potential adjustments up to the time of filing our income tax returns, which occurs after the end of our fiscal year.

Selected Financial Data

The following selected financial data is derived from our annual financial statements for the three years ended December 31, 2022. The selected financial data should be read in conjunction with the more detailed information contained in Item 8. Financial Statements and in this Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (in millions, except per share amounts):

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* Except as noted below, average numbers for each period are weighted based on days on our books and records.

1.Net book value per common share is calculated as total stockholders' equity, less preferred stock liquidation preference, divided by number of common shares outstanding as of period end.

2.Tangible net book value per common share excludes goodwill.

3.The carrying value of our net TBA position represents the difference between the market value and the cost basis of the TBA contract as of period-end and is reported in derivative assets/(liabilities), at fair value on our accompanying consolidated balances sheets.

4.Amount excludes U.S. Treasury repurchase agreements and TBA contracts. Other debt includes debt of consolidated VIEs.

5.Average stockholders' equity calculated as average month-ended stockholders' equity during the period.

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6.Average tangible net book value "at risk" leverage is calculated by dividing the sum of daily weighted average repurchase agreements used to fund our investment securities, other debt, and TBA and forward settling securities (at cost) (collectively "mortgage borrowings") outstanding for the period by the sum of average stockholders' equity adjusted to exclude goodwill for the period. Leverage excludes U.S. Treasury repurchase agreements.

7.Tangible net book value "at risk" leverage as of period end is calculated by dividing the sum of mortgage borrowings outstanding and receivable/payable for unsettled investment securities as of period end by the sum of total stockholders' equity adjusted to exclude goodwill as of period end. Leverage excludes U.S. Treasury repurchase agreements.

8.Economic return on tangible common equity represents the sum of the change in tangible net book value per common share and dividends declared per share of common stock during the period over beginning tangible net book value per common share.

9.Includes net TBA dollar roll position and, if applicable, forward settling securities.

Economic Interest Income and Asset Yields

The following table summarizes our economic interest income (a non-GAAP measure) for fiscal years 2022, 2021 and 2020, which includes the combination of interest income (a GAAP measure) on our holdings reported as investment securities on our consolidated balance sheets, adjusted to exclude estimated "catch-up" premium amortization adjustments for the cumulative effect from prior reporting periods due to changes in our CPR forecast, and implied interest income on our TBA securities (dollars in millions):

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1.Reported in gain (loss) on derivatives instruments and other securities, net in the accompanying consolidated statements of operations.

2.Implied interest income from TBA dollar roll transactions is computed as the sum of (i) TBA dollar roll income and (ii) estimated TBA implied funding cost (see Economic Interest Expense and Aggregate Cost of Funds below). TBA dollar roll income represents the price differential, or "price drop," between the TBA price for current month settlement versus the TBA price for forward month settlement and is the economic equivalent to interest income on the underlying Agency securities, less an implied funding cost, over the forward settlement period. Amount is net of TBAs used for hedging purposes. Amount excludes TBA mark-to-market adjustments.

3.The combined asset yield is calculated on a weighted average basis based on our average investment and TBA balances outstanding during the period and their respective yields.

4.Source: Bloomberg

The principal elements impacting our economic interest income are the average size of our investment portfolio and the average yield on our securities. The following table includes a summary of the estimated impact of each of these elements on our economic interest income for fiscal years 2022 and 2021 compared to the prior year period (in millions):

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Our average investment portfolio, inclusive of TBAs (at cost), decreased 18% and 10% for fiscal years 2022 and 2021, respectively, primarily due to declines in stockholders' equity. The average yield on our investment portfolio, including TBA implied asset yields and excluding "catch-up" premium amortization, increased 88 basis points for fiscal year 2022. The increase was due to the combination of a higher average coupon on our portfolio as a result of portfolio repositioning up in coupon during the year and slower CPR projections due to higher interest rates. For fiscal year 2021, our average yield decreased 38 basis points due to a lower average coupon and faster CPR projections.

Leverage

Our primary measure of leverage is our tangible net book value "at risk" leverage ratio, which is measured as the sum of our repurchase agreements and other debt used to fund our investment securities and net TBA and forward settling securities position (at cost) (together referred to as "mortgage borrowings") and our net receivable/payable for unsettled investment securities, divided by our total stockholders' equity adjusted to exclude goodwill.

We include our net TBA position in our measure of leverage because a forward contract to acquire Agency RMBS in the TBA market carries similar risks to Agency RMBS purchased in the cash market and funded with on-balance sheet liabilities. Similarly, a TBA contract for the forward sale of Agency securities has substantially the same effect as selling the underlying Agency RMBS and reducing our on-balance sheet funding commitments. (Refer to Liquidity and Capital Resources for further discussion of TBA securities and dollar roll transactions). Repurchase agreements used to fund short-term investments in U.S. Treasury securities ("U.S. Treasury repo") are excluded from our measure of leverage due to the temporary and highly liquid nature of these investments. The following table presents a summary of our leverage ratios for the periods listed (dollars in millions):

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1.Other debt includes debt of consolidated VIEs. Amounts exclude U.S. Treasury repo agreements.

2.Daily average and ending net TBA position outstanding measured at cost. Includes forward settling non-Agency securities.

3.Average tangible net book value "at risk" leverage during the period represents the sum of our daily weighted average repurchase agreements and other debt used to fund acquisitions of investment securities and net TBA and forward settling securities position outstanding, divided by the sum of our average month-ended stockholders' equity, adjusted to exclude goodwill.

4.Tangible net book value "at risk" leverage as of period end represents the sum of our repurchase agreements and other debt used to fund acquisitions of investments securities, net TBA and forward settling securities position (at cost), and net receivable/payable for unsettled investment securities outstanding as of period end, divided by total stockholders' equity, adjusted to exclude goodwill as of period end.

Economic Interest Expense and Aggregate Cost of Funds

The following table summarizes our economic interest expense and aggregate cost of funds (non-GAAP measures) for fiscal years 2022, 2021 and 2020 (dollars in millions), which includes the combination of interest expense on Agency repurchase agreements and other debt (GAAP measure), implied financing cost (benefit) of our TBA securities and interest rate swap periodic cost (benefit):

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1.Amounts exclude interest rate swap termination fees and variation margin settlements paid or received, forward starting swaps and the impact of other supplemental hedges, such as swaptions and U.S. Treasury positions.

2.Reported in gain (loss) on derivative instruments and other securities, net in our consolidated statements of comprehensive income.

3.The implied funding cost (benefit) of TBA dollar roll transactions is determined using the price differential, or "price drop," between the TBA price for current month settlement versus the TBA price for forward month settlement and market based assumptions regarding the "cheapest-to-deliver" collateral that can be delivered to satisfy the TBA contract, such as the anticipated collateral’s weighted average coupon, weighted average maturity and projected 1-month CPR. The average implied funding cost (benefit) for all TBA transactions is weighted based on our daily average TBA balance outstanding for the period.

4.The combined cost of funds for total mortgage borrowings outstanding, before interest rate swap costs, is calculated on a weighted average basis based on average repo, other debt and TBA balances outstanding during the period and their respective cost of funds.

5.Interest rate swap periodic income/cost is measured as a percent of average mortgage borrowings outstanding for the period.

The principal elements impacting our economic interest expense are (i) the size of our average mortgage borrowings and interest rate swap portfolio outstanding during the period, (ii) the average interest rate on our mortgage borrowings and (iii) the average net interest rate paid/received on our interest rate swaps. The following table includes a summary of the estimated impact of these elements on our economic interest expense for fiscal years 2022 and 2021 compared to the prior year period (in millions):

Our average mortgage borrowings, inclusive of TBAs, decreased 22% and 12% for fiscal years 2022 and 2021, respectively, due to a decline in our asset base. The average interest rate on our mortgage borrowings increased 141 basis points

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and decreased 73 basis points during fiscal years 2022 and 2021, respectively, primarily as a function of changes in short-term interest rates.

The decrease in our interest rate swap periodic cost for fiscal year 2022 was primarily due to higher receive rates on our pay-fixed swaps. The modest increase in our interest rate swap periodic cost for fiscal year 2021 was due to lower receive rates, which was partly offset by a decline in our average pay rate. The following is a summary of our average interest rate swaps outstanding and the related average swap pay and receive rates for fiscal years 2022, 2021 and 2020 (dollars in millions). Amounts exclude forward starting swaps not yet in effect.

For fiscal years 2022, 2021 and 2020, we had an average forward starting swap balance of $48 million, $149 million and $784 million, respectively. Forward starting interest rate swaps do not impact our economic interest expense and aggregate cost of funds until they commence accruing net interest settlements on their forward start dates.

Net Interest Spread

The following table presents a summary of our net interest spread (including the impact of TBA dollar roll income, interest rate swaps and excluding "catch-up" premium amortization) for fiscal years 2022, 2021 and 2020:

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Net Spread and Dollar Roll Income

The following table presents a reconciliation of net spread and dollar roll income, excluding "catch-up" premium amortization, available to common stockholders (non-GAAP measure) from comprehensive income (loss) available (attributable) to common stockholders (the most comparable GAAP financial measure) for fiscal years 2022, 2021 and 2020 (dollars in millions):

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1.Reported in gain (loss) on derivative instruments and other securities, net in our consolidated statements of comprehensive income.

2.Reported in interest income in our consolidated statements of comprehensive income.

Gain (Loss) on Investment Securities, Net

The following table is a summary of our net gain (loss) on investment securities for fiscal years 2022, 2021 and 2020 (in millions):

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1.Amounts exclude gain (loss) on TBA securities, which are reported in gain (loss) on derivative instruments and other securities, net in our Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income.

2.Investment securities acquired after fiscal year 2016 are measured at fair value through net income (see Note 2 of our Consolidated Financial Statements in this Form 10-K).

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Gain (Loss) on Derivative Instruments and Other Securities, Net

The following table is a summary of our gain (loss) on derivative instruments and other securities, net for fiscal years 2022, 2021 and 2020 (in millions):

For further details regarding our use of derivative instruments and related activity refer to Notes 2 and 5 of our Consolidated Financial Statements in this Form 10-K.

Estimated Taxable Income (Loss)

For fiscal years 2022, 2021 and 2020, we had estimated taxable income (loss) attributed to common stockholders of $353 million, $(488) million and $745 million, respectively, or $0.66, $(0.92) and $1.35 per diluted common share, respectively. Taxable income for fiscal year 2022 excludes $4.3 billion of capital losses. Capital losses can be carried forward for up to five years and applied against future capital gains. We did not incur an income tax liability for fiscal years 2021 and 2020. As of December 31, 2022, we had distributed all of our estimated taxable income for fiscal year 2022. Accordingly, we do not expect to incur an income tax liability on our 2022 taxable income.

Income determined under GAAP differs from income determined under U.S. federal income tax rules because of both temporary and permanent differences in income and expense recognition. The primary differences are (i) unrealized gains and losses on investment securities and derivative instruments marked-to-market in current income for GAAP purposes, but excluded from taxable income until realized, settled or amortized over the instrument's remaining term, (ii) timing differences, both temporary and potentially permanent, in the recognition of certain realized gains and losses and (iii) temporary differences related to the amortization of premiums and discounts on investments. Furthermore, our estimated taxable income is subject to potential adjustments up to the time of filing our appropriate tax returns, which occurs after the end of our fiscal year. The

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following is a reconciliation of our GAAP net income to our estimated taxable income (loss) for fiscal years 2022, 2021 and 2020 (dollars in millions, except per share amounts):

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LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

Our business is dependent on our ability to maintain adequate levels of liquidity and capital resources to fund day-to-day operations, fulfill collateral requirements under our funding and derivative agreements, and to satisfy our dividend distribution requirement of at least 90% of our taxable income to maintain our qualification as a REIT. Our primary sources of liquidity are unencumbered cash and securities, borrowings available under repurchase agreements, TBA dollar roll financing and monthly receipts of principal and interest payments. We may also conduct asset sales, change our asset or funding mix, issue equity or undertake other capital enhancing actions to maintain adequate levels of liquidity and capital resources. There are various risks and uncertainties that can impact our liquidity, such as those described in Item 1A. Risk Factors and Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures of Market Risks in this Form 10-K. In assessing our liquidity, we consider a number of factors, including our current leverage, collateral levels, access to capital markets, overall market conditions, and the sensitivity of our tangible net book value over a range of scenarios. We believe that we have sufficient liquidity and capital resources available to meet our obligations and execute our business strategy.

Leverage and Financing Sources

Our leverage will vary depending on market conditions and our assessment of relative risks and returns, but we generally expect our leverage to be between six and twelve times the amount of our tangible stockholders' equity, measured as the sum of our total mortgage borrowings and net payable / (receivable) for unsettled investment securities, divided by the sum of our total stockholders' equity adjusted to exclude goodwill. Our tangible net book value "at risk" leverage ratio was 7.4x and 7.7x as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. The following table includes a summary of our mortgage borrowings outstanding as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 (dollars in millions). For additional details of our mortgage borrowings refer to Notes 2, 4 and 5 to our Consolidated Financial Statements in this Form 10-K.

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1.As of December 31, 2022 and 2021, 48% and 42%, respectively, of our repurchase agreements were funded through the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation's GCF Repo service.

2.Amounts exclude U.S. Treasury repurchase agreements.

Our primary financing sources are collateralized borrowings structured as repurchase agreements. We enter into repurchase agreements, or "repo," through bi-lateral arrangements with financial institutions and independent dealers. We also enter into third-party repurchase agreements through our wholly-owned registered broker-dealer subsidiary, Bethesda Securities, LLC, such as tri-party repo offered through the FICC's GCF Repo service. We manage our repurchase agreement funding position through a variety of methods, including diversification of counterparties, maintaining a staggered maturity profile and utilization of interest rate hedging strategies. We also use TBA dollar roll transactions as a means of synthetically financing Agency RMBS.

The terms and conditions of our repurchase agreements are determined on a transaction-by-transaction basis when each such borrowing is initiated or renewed and, in the case of GCF Repo, by the variable margin requirements calculated by the FICC, which acts as the central counterparty. The amount borrowed is generally equal to the fair value of the securities pledged, as determined by the lending counterparty, less an agreed-upon discount, referred to as a "haircut," which reflects the underlying risk of the specific collateral and protects the counterparty against a change in its value. Interest rates are generally fixed based on prevailing rates corresponding to the term of the borrowing. None of our repo counterparties are obligated to renew or otherwise enter into new borrowings at the conclusion of our existing borrowings.

The use of TBA dollar roll transactions increases our funding diversification, expands our available pool of assets, and increases our overall liquidity position, as TBA contracts typically have lower implied haircuts relative to Agency RMBS pools funded with repo financing. TBA dollar roll transactions may also have a lower implied cost of funds than comparable repo funded transactions (referred to as "dollar roll specialness") offering incremental return potential. However, if it were to become uneconomical to roll our TBA contracts into future months it may be necessary to take physical delivery of the underlying securities and fund those assets with cash or other financing sources, which could reduce our liquidity position.

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Collateral Requirements and Unencumbered Assets

Amounts available to be borrowed under our repurchase agreements are dependent upon prevailing interest rates, the lender’s "haircut" requirements and collateral value. Each of these elements may fluctuate with changes in interest rates, credit quality and liquidity conditions within the financial markets. To help manage the adverse impact of interest rate changes on our borrowings, we utilize an interest rate risk management strategy involving the use of derivative financial instruments. In particular, we attempt to mitigate the risk of the cost of our short-term funding liabilities increasing at a faster rate than the earnings of our long-term fixed rate assets during a period of rising interest rates.

The collateral requirements, or haircut levels, under our repo agreements are typically determined on an individual transaction basis or by the prevailing requirements established by the FICC for GCF tri-party repo. Consequently, haircut levels and minimum margin requirements can change over time and may increase during periods of elevated market volatility. If the fair value of our collateral declines, our counterparties will typically require that we post additional collateral to re-establish the agreed-upon collateral levels, referred to as "margin calls." Similarly, if the estimated fair value of our investment securities increases, we may request that counterparties release collateral back to us. Our counterparties typically have the sole discretion to determine the value of pledged collateral but are required to act in good faith in making determinations of value. Our agreements generally provide that in the event of a margin call, collateral must be posted on the same business day, subject to notice requirements. As of December 31, 2022, we had met all our margin requirements.

The value of Agency RMBS collateral is impacted by market factors and is reduced by monthly principal pay-downs on the underlying mortgage pools. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac publish monthly security pay-down factors for their mortgage pools on the fifth day after month-end, but do not remit payment to security holders until generally the 25th day after month-end. Bi-lateral repo counterparties assess margin to account for the reduction in value of Agency collateral when factors are released. The FICC assesses margin on the last day of each month, prior to the factor release date, based on its internally projected pay-down rates (referred to as the "blackout period exposure adjustment" or "blackout margin"). On the factor release date, the blackout margin is released and collateralization requirements are adjusted to actual factor data. Due to the timing difference between associated margin calls and our receipt of principal pay-downs, our liquidity is temporarily reduced each month for principal repayments. We attempt to manage the liquidity risk associated with principal pay-downs by monitoring conditions impacting prepayment rates and through asset selection. As of December 31, 2022, approximately 31% our investment portfolio consisted of TBA securities, which are not subject to monthly principal pay-downs. The remainder of our portfolio, primarily consisted of Agency RMBS, which had an average one-year CPR forecast of 5%.

Collateral requirements under our derivative agreements are subject to our counterparties' assessment of their maximum risk of loss associated with the derivative instrument, referred to as the initial or minimum margin requirement, and may be adjusted based on changes in market volatility and other factors. We are also subject to daily variation margin requirements based on changes in the value of the derivative instrument and/or collateral pledged. Daily variation margin requirements also entitle us to receive collateral if the value of amounts owed to us under the derivative agreement exceeds the minimum margin requirement. The collateral requirements under our TBA contracts are governed by the Mortgage-Backed Securities Division ("MBSD") of the FICC. Collateral levels for interest rate derivative agreements are typically governed by the central clearing exchange and the associated futures commission merchants ("FCMs"), which may establish margin levels in excess of the clearing exchange. Collateral levels for interest rate derivative agreements not subject to central clearing are established by the counterparty financial institution.

Haircut levels and minimum margin requirements imposed by our counterparties reduce the amount of our unencumbered assets and limit the amount we can borrow against our investment securities. During the fiscal year 2022, haircuts on our repo funding arrangements remained stable. As of December 31, 2022, the weighted average haircut on our repurchase agreements was approximately 3.7% of the value of our collateral, compared to 3.8% as of December 31, 2021.

To mitigate the risk of margins calls, we seek to maintain excess liquidity by holding unencumbered liquid assets that can be used to satisfy collateral requirements, collateralize additional borrowings or sold for cash. As of December 31, 2022, our unencumbered assets totaled approximately $4.4 billion, or 60% of tangible equity, consisting of $4.3 billion of unencumbered cash and Agency RMBS and $0.1 billion of unencumbered credit assets. This compares to $6.5 billion of unencumbered assets, or 67% of tangible equity, as of December 31, 2021, consisting of $5.8 billion of unencumbered cash and Agency RMBS and $0.7 billion of unencumbered credit assets.

Counterparty Risk

Collateral requirements imposed by counterparties subject us to the risk that the counterparty does not return pledged assets to us as and when required. We attempt to manage this risk by monitoring our collateral positions and limiting our counterparties to registered clearinghouses and major financial institutions with acceptable credit ratings. We also diversify our funding across multiple counterparties and by region.

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As of December 31, 2022, our maximum amount at risk (or the excess/shortfall of the value of collateral pledged/received over our repurchase agreement liabilities/reverse repurchase agreement receivables) with any of our repurchase agreement counterparties, excluding the FICC, was approximately 4% of our tangible stockholders' equity, with our top five repo counterparties, excluding the FICC, representing approximately 7% of our tangible stockholders' equity. As of December 31, 2022, approximately 6% of our tangible stockholder's equity was at risk with the FICC. Excluding central clearing exchanges, as of December 31, 2022, our amount at risk with any counterparty to our derivative agreements was less than 1% of our stockholders' equity.

Asset Sales

Agency RMBS securities are among the most liquid fixed income securities, and the TBA market is the second most liquid market (after the U.S. Treasury market). Although market conditions fluctuate, the vitality of these markets enables us to sell assets under most conditions to generate liquidity through direct sales or delivery into TBA contracts, subject to "good delivery" provisions promulgated by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association ("SIFMA"). Under certain market conditions, however, we may be unable to realize the full carrying value of our securities. We attempt to manage this risk by maintaining at least a minimum level of securities that trade at or near TBA values that in our estimation enhances our portfolio liquidity across a wide range of market conditions. Please refer to Trends and Recent Market Impacts of this Management Discussion and Analysis for further information regarding Agency RMBS and TBA market conditions.

Capital Markets

The equity capital markets serve as a source of capital to grow our business and to meet potential liquidity needs of our business. The availability of equity capital is dependent on market conditions and investor demand for our common and preferred stock. We will typically not issue common stock at times when we believe the capital raised will not be accretive to our tangible net book value or earnings, and we will typically not issue preferred equity when its cost exceeds acceptable hurdle rates of return on our equity. There can be no assurance that we will be able to raise additional equity capital at any particular time or on any particular terms. Furthermore, when the trading price of our common stock is less than our estimate of our current tangible net book value per common share, among other conditions, we may repurchase shares of our common stock. Please refer to Note 9 of our Consolidated Financial Statements in this Form 10-K for further details regarding our recent equity capital transactions, if any.

OFF-BALANCE SHEET ARRANGEMENTS

As of December 31, 2022, we did not maintain relationships with unconsolidated entities or financial partnerships, such as entities often referred to as structured finance, or special purpose or variable interest entities, established to facilitate off-balance sheet arrangements or other contractually narrow or limited purposes. Additionally, as of December 31, 2022, we had not guaranteed obligations of unconsolidated entities or entered into a commitment or intent to provide funding to such entities.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

The statements contained in this Annual Report that are not historical facts, including estimates, projections, beliefs, expectations concerning conditions, events, or the outlook for our business, strategy, performance, operations or the markets or industries in which we operate, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as “believe,” “plan,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “see,” “intend,” “outlook,” “potential,” “forecast,” “estimate,” “will,” “could,” “should,” “likely” and other similar, correlative or comparable words and expressions.

Forward looking statements are based on management’s assumptions, projections and beliefs as of the date of this Annual Report, but they involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements, as well as from historical performance. Factors that could cause actual results to vary from our forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the following:

•changes in U.S. monetary policy or interest rates, including actions taken by the Federal Reserve to normalize monetary policy and to reduce the size of its U.S. Treasury and Agency RMBS bond portfolio;

•fluctuations in the yield curve;

•fluctuations in mortgage prepayment rates on the loans underlying our Agency RMBS;

•the availability and terms of financing;

•changes in the market value of our assets, including from changes in net interest spreads, and changes in market liquidity or depth;

•the effectiveness of our risk mitigation strategies;

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•conditions in the market for Agency RMBS and other mortgage securities;

•actions by the federal, state, or local governments to stabilize the economy, the housing sector or financial markets;

•changes to laws, regulations, rules or policies that affect U.S. housing finance activity, the GSE's or the markets for Agency RMBS;

•legislative or regulatory changes that affect our status as a REIT, our exemption from the Investment Company Act of 1940 or the mortgage markets in which we participate; and

•other risks discussed under Item 1A. Risk Factors.

Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date made, and we do not assume any duty and do not undertake to update forward-looking statements. A further discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from any of our forward-looking statements is included in this document under Item 1A. Risk Factors. We caution readers not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements.