TMUS Volatility & Regime
Descriptive volatility statistics + an experimental regime signal — not investment advice; past/model estimates do not indicate future results. Price-based statistics are lmfin computations over a pinned Yahoo adjusted-close window. See Disclaimer.
Volatility estimates
For TMUS over the pinned 3y window ending 2026-06-30, lmfin computes current annualized volatility 30.68%, long-run annualized volatility 40.87%, and GARCH persistence 1.00.
The GARCH model's 1-day-ahead volatility estimate is 32.10%, its 5-day-ahead estimate is 32.14%, and its 21-day-ahead estimate is 32.30%.
Comparator estimates
For the same pinned window, lmfin also reports EWMA volatility 33.52%, trailing 21-day volatility 33.39%, and trailing-window volatility 22.91%.
Experimental regime signal
lmfin's experimental regime detector reports 9.00 detected change-points in the pinned window. The current experimental volatility state is high, with 14.00 days in that state.
Volatility figure
Volatility table
| Metric | Value | Window | End |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current annualized volatility | 30.68% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| Long-run annualized volatility | 40.87% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| GARCH model 1-day-ahead volatility estimate | 32.10% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| GARCH model 5-day-ahead volatility estimate | 32.14% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| GARCH model 21-day-ahead volatility estimate | 32.30% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| EWMA annualized volatility | 33.52% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| Trailing 21-day annualized volatility | 33.39% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| Trailing-window annualized volatility | 22.91% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| GARCH persistence | 1.00 | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
Experimental regime change-points
| Date | lmfin note |
|---|---|
| 2024-05-31 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 145 to 1; P(run<=5)=0.88 |
| 2024-08-01 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 44 to 2; P(run<=5)=0.31 |
| 2024-10-24 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 103 to 1; P(run<=5)=0.91 |
| 2024-12-09 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 134 to 1; P(run<=5)=0.96 |
| 2025-01-29 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 167 to 1; P(run<=5)=0.61 |
| 2025-04-04 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 112 to 1; P(run<=5)=0.68 |
| 2025-05-13 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 26 to 5; P(run<=5)=0.28 |
| 2025-07-24 | BOCPD small-run probability exceeded threshold; P(run<=5)=0.39 |
| 2026-04-29 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 252 to 6; P(run<=5)=0.29 |
Provenance
lmfin: lmfin 0.1.0. Vol command: lmfin vol TMUS --window 3y --end 2026-06-30 --json. Regime command: lmfin regime TMUS --window 3y --end 2026-06-30 --json. Price source: yahoo; price field: adjusted_close; window start: 2023-07-03; window end: 2026-06-30. Volatility statistics and experimental regime change-points are lmfin computations from Yahoo adjusted-close data over the pinned window. Model estimates are descriptive outputs, not advice.