# T Volatility & Regime

Advisory: Descriptive volatility statistics + an experimental regime signal - not investment advice; past/model estimates do not indicate future results. Informational only - not investment advice.

Window: 3y ending 2026-06-30. Pack hash: 530a0851612a890a80a94686cfa0592d1e8d76fe039d7027c64f84872af0fbe1.

## Volatility estimates

For T over the pinned 3y window ending 2026-06-30, lmfin computes current annualized volatility 35.13%, long-run annualized volatility 23.87%, and GARCH persistence 0.62.

The GARCH model's 1-day-ahead volatility estimate is 45.37%, its 5-day-ahead estimate is 28.17%, and its 21-day-ahead estimate is 23.87%.

## Comparator estimates

For the same pinned window, lmfin also reports EWMA volatility 36.51%, trailing 21-day volatility 36.29%, and trailing-window volatility 23.52%.

## Experimental regime signal

lmfin's experimental regime detector reports 8.00 detected change-points in the pinned window. The current experimental volatility state is high, with 18.00 days in that state.

## Volatility table

| Metric | Value | Window | End |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Current annualized volatility | 35.13% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| Long-run annualized volatility | 23.87% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| GARCH model 1-day-ahead volatility estimate | 45.37% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| GARCH model 5-day-ahead volatility estimate | 28.17% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| GARCH model 21-day-ahead volatility estimate | 23.87% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| EWMA annualized volatility | 36.51% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| Trailing 21-day annualized volatility | 36.29% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| Trailing-window annualized volatility | 23.52% | 3y | 2026-06-30 |
| GARCH persistence | 0.62 | 3y | 2026-06-30 |

## Experimental regime change-points

Current experimental state: high; current state start: 2026-01-28; days in state: 18.
| Date | lmfin note |
| --- | --- |
| 2023-08-29 | BOCPD small-run probability exceeded threshold; P(run<=5)=0.32 |
| 2023-10-19 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 64 to 1; P(run<=5)=0.91 |
| 2024-07-24 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 254 to 3; P(run<=5)=0.70 |
| 2025-01-27 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 381 to 1; P(run<=5)=0.91 |
| 2025-03-04 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 406 to 1; P(run<=5)=0.79 |
| 2025-04-04 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 429 to 1; P(run<=5)=0.79 |
| 2025-10-06 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 555 to 4; P(run<=5)=0.42 |
| 2026-01-28 | BOCPD MAP run length reset from 174 to 1; P(run<=5)=0.54 |

## Provenance

lmfin: lmfin 0.1.0. Vol command: lmfin vol T --window 3y --end 2026-06-30 --json. Regime command: lmfin regime T --window 3y --end 2026-06-30 --json. Price source: yahoo; price field: adjusted_close; window start: 2023-07-03; window end: 2026-06-30. Volatility statistics and experimental regime change-points are lmfin computations from Yahoo adjusted-close data over the pinned window. Model estimates are descriptive outputs, not advice. Pack hash: 530a0851612a890a80a94686cfa0592d1e8d76fe039d7027c64f84872af0fbe1.