Kodiak Sciences Inc. (KOD) FY 2022 MD&A
This page reproduces the company's own Item 7 MD&A text from the linked SEC filing. It is filer text, not grepcent analysis, scoring, or investment advice.
ITEM 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
You should read the following discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations together with our consolidated financial statements and the related notes included elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. This discussion and analysis and other parts of this Annual Report on Form 10-K contain forward-looking statements based upon current beliefs, plans and expectations related to future events and our future financial performance that involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions, such as statements regarding our intentions, plans, objectives, expectations, forecasts and projections. Our actual results and the timing of selected events could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of several factors, including those set forth under the section titled “Risk Factors” and elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Overview
Kodiak Sciences (“we” or the “Company”) is a biopharmaceutical company committed to researching, developing and commercializing transformative therapeutics to treat high prevalence retinal diseases. Founded in 2009, we are focused on bringing new science to the design and manufacture of next generation retinal medicines to prevent and treat the leading causes of blindness globally. Our ABC Platform™ uses molecular engineering to merge the fields of antibody-based and chemistry-based therapies and is at the core of Kodiak's discovery engine. Kodiak's lead product candidate, tarcocimab, is a novel anti-VEGF antibody biopolymer conjugate being developed for the treatment of retinal vascular diseases including diabetic eye diseases, the leading cause of blindness in working-age patients in the developed world, and wet age-related macular degeneration, the leading cause of blindness in elderly patients in the developed world. Kodiak has leveraged its ABC Platform to build a pipeline of product candidates in various stages of development. KSI-501 is our dual inhibitor antibody biopolymer conjugate targeting both VEGF (VEGF-trap) and IL-6 (anti-IL-6 antibody) for the treatment of retinal diseases. We are progressing our early research pipeline to include ABC Platform based triplet inhibitors for multifactorial retinal diseases such as dry AMD and glaucoma.
Tarcocimab Clinical Program Update
Looking across the development program for tarcocimab, we have four Phase 3 studies ongoing, namely our paired Phase 3 studies GLEAM and GLIMMER in diabetic macular edema (“DME“), Phase 3 study DAYLIGHT in wet age-related macular degeneration (“wet AMD”) and Phase 3 study GLOW in non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (“NPDR”) without DME. All the studies are fully enrolled and expected to read out topline data in the third quarter of 2023.
GLEAM / GLIMMER – Paired Phase 3 Studies in Patients with Treatment-Naïve Diabetic Macular Edema
The Phase 3 GLEAM and GLIMMER studies are global, multi-center, randomized pivotal studies designed to evaluate the durability, efficacy and safety of tarcocimab in patients with treatment-naïve DME. In each study, patients are randomized 1:1 to receive either tarcocimab or aflibercept. The tarcocimab arm is treated with a proactive, individualized dosing regimen of every 8-, 12-, 16-, 20- or 24 weeks after three monthly loading doses. The aflibercept arm is treated with a fixed dosing regimen of every 8-weeks after five monthly loading doses, per its label. Both studies completed enrollment of approximately 450 patients each worldwide in the first quarter of 2022. The primary endpoint for both studies is at year one. We expect to announce topline data from these studies in the third quarter of 2023 (expected July). If successful, we expect that data from our GLEAM and GLIMMER studies will serve as the primary basis for regulatory approval of tarcocimab.
GLOW – Phase 3 Study in Patients with Non-Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy without DME
The Phase 3 GLOW study is a global, multi-center, randomized pivotal superiority study designed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of tarcocimab in treatment-naïve, moderately severe to severe NPDR without DME. Patients are randomized to receive either tarcocimab every six months after initiating doses given at baseline, 8 weeks and 20 weeks into the study, or to receive sham injections. The primary endpoint is at one year. Outcomes include changes in diabetic retinopathy severity, measured on a standardized photographic grading scale, and the rate of development of sight-threatening complications due to diabetic retinopathy. We believe tarcocimab has the potential to be the longest-interval intravitreal therapeutic option for patients with diabetic retinopathy. GLOW completed enrollment of approximately 240 patients in August 2022, and we expect to announce topline data from this study in the third quarter of 2023.
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DAYLIGHT – Phase 3 Study in Patients with Treatment-Naïve Wet AMD
The Phase 3 DAYLIGHT study is a global, multi-center, randomized pivotal study designed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of high-frequency tarcocimab in patients with treatment-naïve wet AMD. Patients are randomized to receive either tarcocimab on a monthly dosing regimen or to receive standard-of-care aflibercept on a fixed dosing regimen of every 8-weeks after three monthly loading doses per its label. The primary endpoint is at year one. The DAYLIGHT study is intended to demonstrate the efficacy of tarcocimab to treat high need patients with wet AMD. DAYLIGHT has completed enrollment of approximately 550 patients worldwide, and we expect to announce topline data from this study in the third quarter of 2023.
Tarcocimab Manufacturing
In August 2020, we and our wholly-owned subsidiary Kodiak Sciences GmbH entered into a manufacturing agreement with Lonza Ltd (“Lonza”) for the clinical and commercial supply of drug substance for tarcocimab. The manufacturing agreement has an initial term of eight years, and Kodiak has the right to extend the term up to a total of 16 years. Kodiak and Lonza each has the ability to terminate this agreement upon the occurrence of certain conditions. Under the agreement, Kodiak and Lonza planned a custom-built facility (“Ursus”) dedicated to the commercial-scale manufacturing of Kodiak’s drug substance. In March 2022, the Ursus facility achieved mechanical completion. In May 2022, we announced the grand opening of this facility together with Lonza. The facility was commissioned as a cGMP facility in January 2023, and we began the manufacturing of commercial-scale cGMP batches in the first quarter of 2023.
KSI-501 Program Update
In 2022, we broadened our development pipeline of product candidates built on our ABC Platform with the filing of the Investigational New Drug (IND) application for KSI-501. KSI-501 is an investigational, first-in-class bispecific ABC that is designed to inhibit two mechanisms implicated in retinal diseases: vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and interleukin-6 (IL-6). IL-6 is a pro-inflammatory cytokine and growth factor implicated in the pathophysiology of multiple retinal diseases and, in conditions for which anti-VEGF treatment is used, elevated levels of ocular IL-6 have been associated with poor anti-VEGF treatment response. KSI-501 is a trap-antibody fusion biopolymer conjugate designed to provide potent inhibition of (i) VEGF-mediated angiogenesis and vascular permeability through a soluble decoy receptor inhibiting the binding of VEGF-A and PLGF to their cognate receptors and (ii) IL-6 mediated inflammation through an antibody that binds soluble interleukin-6, inhibiting its binding to both soluble and membrane-bound IL-6 receptors. In preclinical studies KSI-501 was found to inhibit angiogenesis and also normalize inner and outer blood retinal barriers in primary-cell assays. Dual inhibition of VEGF and IL-6 by KSI-501 confers superior normalization of cell morphology and junctional biology compared to either anti-VEGF or anti-IL-6 monotherapy in cell-based assays. We believe KSI-501 has the potential to become a new category of retinal medicines with greater therapeutic efficacy than existing therapies while also benefiting from the promising long-interval durability of Kodiak’s ABC Platform. The IND for KSI-501 has been cleared by the FDA, and the Phase 1 study in diabetic macular edema (DME) patients is now screening patients.
Technology Platform Development
We continued progressing our technology development with our “triplet” platform. The triplet science is designed to bring our phosphorylcholine-based biopolymer, the central tenet of our ABC Platform, together with many hundreds of copies of small molecules chemically embedded in that biopolymer, which is conjugated to an antibody therapeutic. We believe this new antibody conjugate drug format offers broad and important utility for multifactorial ophthalmic diseases and also has significant relevance for systemic diseases. We continue to advance our triplet platform towards its initial therapeutic concepts.
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Digital Health Platform Development
We are developing a visual engagement technology and imager (“VETi”) designed by Kodiak engineers initially to be used by eye care professionals for vision and ophthalmic anatomical examination, diagnosis and monitoring. Our longer-term goal with VETi, built with semiconductor technologies, is to deliver a wearable device for long-term health engagement and monitoring.
Importantly, we also believe the Kodiak VETi platform as a medical engagement and imaging platform has the potential to disrupt ophthalmology clinical trials by enabling new trial endpoints, thereby enabling faster and more cost-effective medicines development in ophthalmic disease, an area that historically requires lengthy and expensive trials. VETi may also aid in market build and shaping for undertreated or underdiagnosed diseases, such as diabetic eye diseases where Kodiak’s product candidates tarcocimab and KSI-501 are being studied and where early treatment and prevention may allow patients to achieve better outcomes.
The VETi platform is expected to begin pilot clinical testing mid-2023 to gather initial user input for continued innovation in the design and build of this new hardware and software platform.
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Financial Operations Overview
Since inception in June 2009, we have devoted substantially all of our resources to discovering and developing product candidates and manufacturing processes, building our ABC Platform and assembling our core capabilities in drug development for high prevalence retinal diseases. We plan to continue to use third-party contract research organizations, or CROs, to carry out our preclinical and clinical development. We rely on third-party contract manufacturing organizations, or CMOs, to manufacture and supply our preclinical and clinical materials to be used during the development of our product candidates. We continue to invest in commercial manufacturing capacity. We do not have any products approved for sale and have not generated any product revenue since inception.
We have funded our operations primarily through the sale and issuance of equity securities. In October 2018, we completed our initial public offering, or IPO. In December 2019, we completed a follow-on offering. In November 2020, we completed a second follow-on offering.
We have incurred significant operating losses to date and expect that our operating losses will increase significantly as we advance our product candidates, particularly tarcocimab, through preclinical and clinical development, seek regulatory approval, prepare for and, if approved, proceed to commercialization; broaden and improve our platform; acquire, discover, validate and develop additional product candidates; obtain, maintain, protect and enforce our intellectual property portfolio; and hire additional personnel. We expect to continue to incur additional costs associated with operating as a public company. Our net loss was $333.8 million, $267.0 million and $133.1 million for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively. As of December 31, 2022, we had an accumulated deficit of $892.0 million.
Our ability to generate product revenue will depend on the successful development and eventual commercialization of one or more of our product candidates. Until such time as we can generate significant revenue from sales of our product candidates, if ever, we expect to finance our operations through the sale of equity, debt financings or other capital sources, including potential collaborations with other companies or other strategic transactions. Adequate funding may not be available to us on acceptable terms, or at all. If we fail to raise capital or enter into such agreements as, and when, needed, we may have to significantly delay, scale back, or discontinue the development and commercialization of tarcocimab for wet AMD, RVO, DME or NPDR or delay our efforts to advance and expand our product pipeline.
As of December 31, 2022, we had cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $478.9 million.
Components of Operating Results
Operating Expenses
Research and Development Expenses
Substantially all of our research and development expenses consist of expenses incurred in connection with the development of our ABC Platform and product candidates. These expenses include certain payroll and personnel expenses, including stock-based compensation, for our research and product development employees; laboratory supplies and facility costs; consulting costs; contract manufacturing and fees paid to CROs to conduct certain research and development activities on our behalf; and allocated overhead, including rent, equipment, depreciation and utilities. We expense both internal and external research and development expenses as they are incurred. Costs of certain activities, such as manufacturing and preclinical and clinical studies, are generally recognized based on an evaluation of the progress to completion of specific tasks. Nonrefundable payments made prior to the receipt of goods or services that will be used or rendered for future research and development activities are deferred and capitalized. The capitalized amounts are recognized as expense as the goods are delivered or the related services are performed.
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We are focusing substantially all of our resources and development efforts on the development of our product candidates, in particular tarcocimab. We expect our research and development expenses to increase substantially during the next few years as we conduct our Phase 3 clinical studies, complete our clinical program, pursue regulatory approval of our drug candidates and prepare for a possible commercial launch. Predicting the timing or the final cost to complete our clinical program or validation of our commercial manufacturing and supply processes is difficult and delays may occur because of many factors, including factors outside of our control. For example, if the FDA or other regulatory authorities were to require us to conduct clinical trials beyond those that we currently anticipate, or if we experience significant delays in enrollment in any of our clinical trials, we could be required to expend significant additional financial resources and time on the completion of clinical development. Furthermore, we are unable to predict when or if our drug candidates will receive regulatory approval with any certainty.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses consist principally of payroll and personnel expenses, including stock-based compensation; professional fees for legal, consulting, accounting and tax services; allocated overhead, including rent, equipment, depreciation and utilities; and other general operating expenses not otherwise classified as research and development expenses.
We anticipate that our general and administrative expenses will increase as a result of increased personnel costs, including stock-based compensation, expanded infrastructure and higher consulting, legal and accounting services associated with maintaining compliance with requirements of the stock exchange listing and Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, investor relations costs and director and officer insurance premiums associated with being a public company.
Interest Income
Interest income consists primarily of interest income earned on our cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities.
Other Income (Expense), Net
Other income (expense), net consists primarily of settlement of derivative contracts, net of tax provisions and amortized issuance costs from the liability related to the future sale of royalties to BBA in 2019.
Results of Operations
The following table summarizes our results of operations for the periods indicated (in thousands, except percentages):
| Year Ended December 31, | 2022 vs 2021 Change | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | Dollar | Percent | ||||||||||||||||
| Operating expenses | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Research and development | $ | 267,591 | $ | 217,340 | $ | 107,389 | $ | 50,251 | 23 | % | ||||||||||
| General and administrative | 73,788 | 49,711 | 28,618 | 24,077 | 48 | % | ||||||||||||||
| Loss from operations | (341,379 | ) | (267,051 | ) | (136,007 | ) | (74,328 | ) | 28 | % | ||||||||||
| Interest income | 7,071 | 298 | 2,966 | 6,773 | * | |||||||||||||||
| Interest expense | (18 | ) | (47 | ) | (25 | ) | 29 | * | ||||||||||||
| Other income (expense), net | 503 | (190 | ) | (30 | ) | 693 | * | |||||||||||||
| Net loss | $ | (333,823 | ) | $ | (266,990 | ) | $ | (133,096 | ) | $ | (66,833 | ) | 25 | % |
* Change is not meaningful
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Research and Development Expenses
Research and development expenses increased $50.3 million, or 23%, during the year ended December 31, 2022 as compared to 2021.
The following table summarizes our research and development expenses for the periods indicated (in thousands):
| Year Ended December 31, | 2022 vs 2021 Change | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | Dollar | |||||||||||||
| Tarcocimab program expenses | $ | 132,953 | $ | 137,849 | $ | 58,563 | $ | (4,896 | ) | |||||||
| KSI-501 program expenses | 6,964 | 4,529 | 1,573 | 2,435 | ||||||||||||
| ABC Platform and other program expenses | 27,409 | 11,354 | 7,365 | 16,055 | ||||||||||||
| Payroll and personnel expenses | 79,314 | 51,171 | 30,434 | 28,143 | ||||||||||||
| Facilities and other research and development expenses | 20,951 | 12,437 | 9,454 | 8,514 | ||||||||||||
| Total research and development expenses | $ | 267,591 | $ | 217,340 | $ | 107,389 | $ | 50,251 |
Tarcocimab program expenses decreased $4.9 million during the year ended December 31, 2022 as compared to 2021, primarily driven by the maturation of the tarcocimab clinical program and timing of manufacturing activities. We expect to read out topline data in the third quarter of 2023 for our paired long-interval Phase 3 studies GLEAM and GLIMMER in DME, short-interval Phase 3 study DAYLIGHT in wet AMD and prevention and treatment Phase 3 study GLOW in NPDR without DME, which are fully enrolled and have been designed to broaden tarcocimab’s product labeling.
KSI-501 program expenses increased $2.4 million during the year ended December 31, 2022 as compared to 2021, primarily due to manufacturing activities for KSI-501.
ABC Platform external expenses increased $16.1 million during the year ended December 31, 2022 as compared to 2021, primarily driven by manufacturing runs to support research and development efforts for our pipeline.
Payroll and personnel expenses increased $28.1 million during the year ended December 31, 2022 as compared to 2021, primarily due to stock-based compensation expense. We recorded stock-based compensation expense of $36.7 million during the year ended December 31, 2022 relating to the Kodiak 2021 Long-Term Performance Incentive Plan, or LTPIP, as compared to $9.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2021.
Facilities and other research and development expenses increased $8.5 million during the year ended December 31, 2022 as compared to 2021, primarily due to expansion of our Palo Alto facilities and infrastructure, as well as incremental research efforts on our pipeline.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses increased $24.1 million, or 48%, during the year ended December 31, 2022 as compared to 2021, primarily driven by stock-based compensation expense. We recorded stock-based compensation expense of $28.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2022 relating to the LTPIP, as compared to $6.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2021.
Interest Income
Interest income increased $6.8 million during the year ended December 31, 2022 as compared to 2021, which was mainly attributable to interest income earned on marketable securities invested during 2022.
Other Income (Expense), Net
Other income (expense), net increased $0.7 million during the year ended December 31, 2022 as compared to 2021, which was mainly attributable to gain from settlement of foreign currency forward contracts.
Comparison of the Fiscal Years Ended December 31, 2021 and 2020
For a comparison of our results of operations for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, see “Part II, Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2021, filed with the SEC on March 1, 2022.
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Liquidity and Capital Resources; Plan of Operations
Sources of Liquidity
We have funded our operations primarily through the sale and issuance of common stock, redeemable convertible preferred stock, convertible notes, warrants and the sale of royalties. As of December 31, 2022, we had cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $478.9 million.
On March 10, 2023, Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) was closed by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation, which appointed the FDIC as receiver. Subsequently, the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve and FDIC announced that SVB depositors would have access to all of their money. We have a banking relationship with SVB and hold cash in SVB depository accounts to cover short-term operational payments. While we have not experienced any losses in such accounts, the recent failure of SVB caused us to utilize our accounts at other financial institutions in order to mitigate potential operational risks stemming from the temporary inability to access funds in our SVB operating accounts. As a result of bank failures, such as SVB, our access to funding sources in amounts adequate to finance or capitalize our current and projected future business operations could be significantly impaired and could negatively impact the financial institutions with which we have direct arrangements, or the financial services industry or economy in general.
Future Funding Requirements
We have incurred net losses since our inception. For the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, we had net losses of $333.8 million, $267.0 million, and $133.1 million, respectively, and we expect to continue to incur additional losses in future periods. As of December 31, 2022, we had an accumulated deficit of $892.0 million. We believe that the cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities will be sufficient to meet our anticipated operating and capital expenditure requirements at least 12 months following the date of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
We have based these estimates on assumptions that may prove to be wrong, and we could deplete our available capital resources sooner than we expect. Because of the risks and uncertainties associated with research, development and commercialization of product candidates, we are unable to estimate the exact amount of our working capital requirements. Our future funding requirements will depend on and could increase significantly as a result of many factors.
To date, we have not generated any product revenue. We do not expect to generate any product revenue unless and until we obtain regulatory approval of and commercialize any of our product candidates or enter into collaborative agreements with third parties, and we do not know when, or if, either will occur. We expect to continue to incur significant losses for the foreseeable future, and we expect our losses to increase as we continue the development of, and seek regulatory approvals for, our product candidates, and begin to commercialize any approved products. We are subject to all of the risks typically related to the development of new product candidates, and we may encounter unforeseen expenses, difficulties, complications, delays and other unknown factors that may adversely affect our business. Moreover, we expect to continue incurring additional costs associated with operating as a public company.
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We have based these estimates on assumptions that may prove to be wrong, and we could deplete our capital resources sooner than we expect. The timing and amount of our operating expenditures and capital requirements will depend on many factors, including:
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the scope, timing, rate of progress and costs of our drug discovery, preclinical development activities, laboratory testing and clinical trials for our product candidates;
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the number and scope of clinical programs we decide to pursue;
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the scope and costs of manufacturing development and commercial manufacturing activities;
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the extent to which we acquire or in-license other product candidates and technologies;
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the cost, timing and outcome of regulatory review of our product candidates;
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the costs of preparing, filing and prosecuting patent applications, maintaining and enforcing our intellectual property rights and defending intellectual property-related claims;
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our ability to establish and maintain collaborations on favorable terms, if at all;
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our efforts to enhance operational systems and our ability to attract, hire and retain qualified personnel, including personnel to support the development of our product candidates;
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the costs associated with being a public company; and
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the cost and timing associated with commercializing our product candidates, if they receive marketing approval.
A change in the outcome of any of these or other variables with respect to the development of any of our product candidates could significantly change the costs and timing associated with the development of that product candidate. Furthermore, our operating plans may change in the future, and we will continue to require additional capital to meet operational needs and capital requirements associated with such operating plans. If we raise additional funds by issuing equity securities, our stockholders may experience dilution. Any future debt financing into which we enter may impose upon us additional covenants that restrict our operations, including limitations on our ability to incur liens or additional debt, pay dividends, repurchase our common stock, make certain investments and engage in certain merger, consolidation or asset sale transactions. Any debt financing or additional equity that we raise may contain terms that are not favorable to us or our stockholders. If we are unable to raise additional funds when needed, we may be required to delay, reduce, or terminate some or all of our development programs and clinical trials. We may also be required to sell or license rights to our product candidates in certain territories or indications to others that we would prefer to develop and commercialize ourselves.
The significant uncertainties caused by health epidemics, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, inflation, rising interest rates, bank failures, lower consumer confidence, ongoing supply chain disruptions and volatile equity capital markets may also negatively impact our operations and capital resources. We and our key clinical and manufacturing partners have been able to continue to advance our operations, and we continue to monitor the impact of the aforementioned events on our ability to continue the development of, and seek regulatory approvals for, our product candidates, and begin to commercialize any approved products. One or more of these events may ultimately have a material adverse effect on our liquidity and operating plans.
Adequate additional funding may not be available to us on acceptable terms or at all. Our failure to raise capital as and when needed could have a negative impact on our financial condition and our ability to pursue our business strategies. See the section titled “Risk Factors” for additional risks associated with our substantial capital requirements.
Summary Statement of Cash Flows
The following table sets forth the primary sources and uses of cash for each of the periods presented below:
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2021 | |||||||
| Net cash provided by (used in): | ||||||||
| Operating activities | $ | (206,459 | ) | $ | (182,270 | ) | ||
| Investing activities | (336,513 | ) | (38,798 | ) | ||||
| Financing activities | 1,895 | 8,182 | ||||||
| Net increase (decrease) in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash | $ | (541,077 | ) | $ | (212,886 | ) |
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Cash Flows from Operating Activities
Net cash used in operating activities was $206.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2022. Cash used in operating activities was primarily driven by the increase in net loss during this period due to increased payroll and personnel expenses and manufacturing and clinical trial costs to support overall growth. Cash used in operating activities was also driven by changes in operating assets and liabilities.
Cash Flows from Investing Activities
Net cash used in investing activities was $336.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2022, was primarily related to net purchases of marketable securities during 2022.
Cash Flows from Financing Activities
Net cash provided by financing activities was $1.9 million for the year ended December 31, 2022, was primarily due to proceeds from stock option exercises and proceeds from issuances of common stock pursuant to employee stock purchase plans.
Material Cash Requirements and Material Known Contractual Obligations and Commitments
Operating Leases
Operating lease payments represent our commitment for future minimum rent made under non-cancelable leases for our corporate offices in Palo Alto, California, and office and laboratory space in Visp, Switzerland. Total future undiscounted payments for our operating lease obligations as of December 31, 2022 were $117.3 million, of which $15.6 million is due in the next twelve months.
Embedded Lease
Embedded lease payments represent our commitment for future minimum payment made under the manufacturing agreement with Lonza Ltd. for the clinical and commercial supply of drug substance in a custom-built manufacturing facility. The total future payments relating to our embedded lease, including capital contribution payments, as of December 31, 2022 were approximately 184.5 million Swiss Francs, of which 34.5 million Swiss Francs is expected to be due in the next twelve months.
Manufacturing Agreements
The Company has entered into service and equipment purchase agreements in the normal course of business with various providers, which can contain minimum commitments or other noncancelable obligations. As of December 31, 2022, the total amount of contractual obligations related to these manufacturing agreements that are subject to cancellation fees, including accrued amounts, was $56.8 million, of which $55.5 million is expected to be due in the next twelve months.
For further information on our leases and manufacturing agreements, refer to Note 8 to our consolidated financial statements included in Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Clinical Agreements
The Company may incur potential contingent payments upon our achievement of clinical, regulatory and commercial milestones, as applicable. Due to the uncertainty of the achievement and timing of the events requiring payment under these agreements, the amounts to be paid by us are not fixed or determinable at this time.
Critical Accounting Policies, Significant Judgments and Use of Estimates
Our consolidated financial statements have been prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP. The preparation of these consolidated financial statements requires us to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities, the disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the consolidated financial statements, as well as the reported expenses incurred during the reporting periods. Our estimates are based on our historical experience and on various other factors that we believe are reasonable under the circumstances, the results of which form the basis for making judgments about the carrying value of assets and liabilities that are not readily apparent from other sources. Actual results may differ from these estimates under different assumptions or conditions. We believe that the accounting policies discussed below are critical to understanding our historical and future performance, as these policies relate to the more significant areas involving management’s judgments and estimates.
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Accrued Research and Development
Our accrued research and development costs are estimated based on the level of services performed, including the phase or completion of events, and contracted costs. Accrued clinical trial and related costs are estimated using data such as patient enrollment, clinical site activations or information provided by outside service providers regarding their actual costs incurred. Management determined accrual estimates through reports from and discussions with clinical personnel and outside service providers as to the progress of trials, or the services completed. The estimated costs of research and development provided, but not yet invoiced, are included in accrued liabilities and other current liabilities on the consolidated balance sheet. If the actual timing of the performance of services or the level of effort varies from the original estimates, we will adjust the accrual accordingly. Payments made to third parties under these arrangements in advance of the performance of the related services are recorded as prepaid expenses and other assets until the services are rendered.
Stock-Based Compensation
We measure and recognize compensation expense for all stock‑based awards made to employees, directors and non‑employees, based on estimated fair values of the awards on the grant date and recognized using the straight‑line method over the requisite service period.
The fair value of options is estimated on the grant date using the Black‑Scholes option valuation model or Monte Carlo simulation model. The calculation of stock‑based compensation expense requires that we make certain assumptions and judgments about a number of complex and subjective variables used in the valuation model, including the expected term, expected volatility of the underlying common stock and risk‑free interest rate. Our stock-based awards are subject to either service, performance-based or market-based vesting conditions. We evaluate whether achievement of the performance conditions is probable and record expense over the appropriate service period based on this assessment.
Changes in these assumptions can materially affect the fair value and ultimately how much stock-based compensation expense is recognized. These inputs are subjective and generally require significant analysis and judgment to develop.
See Note 12 to our consolidated financial statements for stock-based compensation expense and related assumptions used in determining the fair value of our awards.
Recent Accounting Pronouncements
A description of recently issued accounting pronouncements that may potentially impact our financial position and results of operations is discussed under Note 2 to our consolidated financial statements included in Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
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