CENTENE CORP (CNC) FY 2023 MD&A
This page reproduces the company's own Item 7 MD&A text from the linked SEC filing. It is filer text, not grepcent analysis, scoring, or investment advice.
ITEM 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
The following discussion of our financial condition and results of operations should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements and the related notes included elsewhere in this filing. The discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, including those set forth under Part I, Item 1A."Risk Factors" of this Form 10-K. The following discussion and analysis does not include certain items related to the year ended December 31, 2021, including year-to-year comparisons between the year ended December 31, 2022 and the year ended December 31, 2021. For a comparison of our results of operations for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, see Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, filed with the SEC on February 21, 2023.
EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW
We are a leading provider of government-sponsored healthcare. We provide access to quality healthcare for nearly 1 in 15 individuals nationwide through government-sponsored programs, including Medicaid, Medicare and the Health Insurance Marketplace. Our focus is on improving health and health care for low-income, complex populations.
We provide access to high-quality healthcare, innovative programs and a wide range of health solutions that help families and individuals get well, stay well and be well. Our uniquely local approach – with local brands and local teams who live in, care about and directly influence the communities they serve – is a key differentiator in our ability to provide access to quality care to our members. Centene treats the whole person, an approach that is delivered locally but backed by the scale of Centene's expertise, data and resources. Through this approach and our commitment to sustainable partnerships, we work with local community organizations to realize our mission of transforming the health of the communities we serve, one person at a time.
Our record of organic growth and strategic acquisitions has given us the size, scale and privilege of providing local high-quality and affordable health care to more than 27 million Americans. As of December 31, 2023, we were the largest Medicaid health insurer in the country, serving more than 14 million Medicaid recipients in 30 states. We were the largest Marketplace carrier, serving 3.9 million members across 28 states, served 1.3 million Medicare Advantage members across 36 states and 4.6 million Medicare Prescription Drug Plan (PDP) members in 50 states and the District of Columbia.
General
Our results of operations depend on our ability to manage expenses associated with health benefits (including estimated costs incurred) and selling, general and administrative (SG&A) costs. We measure operating performance based upon two key ratios. The health benefits ratio (HBR) represents medical costs as a percentage of premium revenues, excluding premium tax revenues that are separately billed, and reflects the direct relationship between the premiums received and the medical services provided. The SG&A expense ratio represents SG&A costs as a percentage of premium and service revenues, excluding premium taxes separately billed.
Segments Update
In the first quarter of 2023, and in conjunction with our updated strategic plan, executive leadership realignment, and corresponding 2023 divestitures, we revised the way we manage the business, evaluate performance and allocate resources, resulting in an updated segment structure comprised of (1) a Medicaid segment, (2) a Medicare segment, (3) a Commercial segment and (4) an Other segment. We began reporting under this new segment structure in 2023. Prior year information has been adjusted to reflect the change in segment reporting.
Acquisitions and Divestitures
In December 2023, we completed the divestiture of Operose Health Group (Operose Health) and recognized an impairment of $140 million, or $128 million after-tax.
In August 2023, we signed a definitive agreement to sell Circle Health Group (Circle Health), which resulted in an impairment of $292 million, or $258 million after-tax, in 2023. The divestiture was completed in January 2024.
In June 2023, we completed the divestiture of our majority stake in Apixio and recognized a gain of $93 million, or $67 million after-tax.
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In January 2023, we sold Magellan Specialty Health for $646 million in cash and stock, including an estimated working capital adjustment, and recognized a gain of $79 million, or $63 million after-tax.
In January 2023, we also completed the divestitures of Centurion and HealthSmart and recorded impairments of $259 million ($181 million after-tax) and $36 million ($27 million after-tax), respectively, in 2022. During 2023, we recognized a gain of $15 million, or $10 million after-tax, on the divestiture of the Centurion business reflecting additional proceeds for contingent consideration, partially offset by net working capital adjustments.
In December 2022, we completed the divestiture of Magellan Rx for $1.3 billion and recognized a gain of $269 million, or $99 million after-tax. During 2023, we recorded a reduction to the previously reported gain on the divestiture of $22 million, or $10 million after-tax, due to the finalization of working capital adjustments.
In November 2022, we divested our ownership stakes in our Spanish and Central European businesses and as a result recorded an impairment charge of $163 million, or $140 million after-tax. During 2023, we recognized an additional loss on sale of $13 million, or $10 million after-tax, related to the divestiture of our Spanish and Central European businesses.
In July 2022, we divested PANTHERx Rare (PANTHERx) for $1.4 billion and recognized a gain of $490 million, or $382 million after-tax.
In January 2022, we acquired all of the issued and outstanding shares of Magellan Health, Inc. (Magellan). Total consideration for the acquisition was $2.5 billion, consisting of $2.4 billion in cash and $60 million related to the fair value of replacement equity awards associated with pre-combination service.
The above-noted divestitures are drivers of the year-over-year variances discussed throughout this section.
Value Creation Plan
We established our Value Creation Plan to drive margin expansion by leveraging our scale and generating sustainable, profitable growth. In addition to creating shareholder value, this plan is an ongoing effort to modernize and improve how we work in order to propel our organization to new levels of success and elevate the member and provider experiences. During the twelve months ended December 31, 2023, we completed the following key milestones in our Value Creation Plan:
•Completed the divestitures of Magellan Specialty Health, Centurion, HealthSmart, our majority stake in Apixio and Operose Health. Additionally, during the third quarter of 2023, we signed a definitive agreement to sell Circle Health. The divestiture was completed in January 2024.
•Completed $1.6 billion of common stock repurchases through our stock repurchase program, which were funded through divestiture proceeds and free cash flow generated from operations.
•Completed operating model changes initiated in 2022, including streamlining call center management and utilization management.
•Initiated standardization of our pharmacy operating model and completed an RFP for pharmacy benefits management (PBM) services. Our new third-party PBM contract commenced in January 2024.
•Launched our next-gen clinical population health platform.
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Regulatory Trends and Uncertainties
The United States government, policymakers and healthcare experts continue to discuss and debate various elements of the United States healthcare model. We remain focused on the promise of delivering access to high-quality, affordable healthcare to all of our members and believe we are well positioned to meet the needs of the changing healthcare landscape.
In contrast to previous executive and legislative efforts to restrict or limit certain provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), legislation and regulations at the federal level over the last few years have contained provisions aimed at leveraging Medicaid and the Health Insurance Marketplace to expand health insurance coverage and affordability to consumers. The American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), enacted in March 2021, initially enhanced eligibility for the premium tax credit for enrollees in the Health Insurance Marketplace, which was extended through the 2025 tax year by the Inflation Reduction Act, enacted in August 2022.
In addition, proposed Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) regulations may require beneficiaries dually enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid to receive integrated care through Medicare Advantage Dual Eligible Special Needs Plans (D-SNPs), which may restrict our product offerings in some geographic service areas. We believe we are positioned well given our overlapping Medicaid and Medicare Advantage footprints and are committed to navigating evolving regulations.
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted and continues to affect our business as it relates to Medicaid eligibility changes and vaccines and treatments. The Families First Coronavirus Response Act, enacted in March 2020, increased federal matching rates for state Medicaid programs with a requirement that states suspend Medicaid redeterminations throughout the public health emergency (PHE). As a result, since the onset of the PHE through March 2023, our Medicaid membership increased by 3.6 million members (excluding new states North Carolina and Delaware and various state product expansions or managed care organization changes). The Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023, signed into law on December 29, 2022, delinked the Medicaid continuous coverage requirements from the PHE and, as a result, some states began Medicaid disenrollments on April 1, 2023. Per the Act and clarifying CMS guidance, redeterminations related to the PHE should conclude during the second quarter of 2024. Redeterminations in certain states may move at a slower pace due to CMS compliance action to pause and/or complete corrective action prior to disenrolling beneficiaries. Some states could see redeterminations extend past the second quarter of 2024 given CMS compliance actions.
We are actively engaged to help ensure individuals take the state agency requested action to confirm eligibility in their Medicaid coverage or find other appropriate coverage that is best for themselves and their families. Our Ambetter Health product covers the majority of our Medicaid states, and we believe we are among the best positioned in the healthcare market to enroll those transitioning coverage through redeterminations. Although Medicaid continuous coverage requirements were decoupled from the PHE, we are working to address provisions that were tied to the end of the PHE which expired on May 11, 2023, including COVID costs related to vaccines and treatments, coverage requirements and various other payment structures.
We also closely monitor state legislation across our markets and are advocating for and seeing adoption of coverage expansions for Medicaid adult populations (e.g., North Carolina), postpartum, foster care, children, among others, as well as mitigating adverse legislation addressing pharmacy, prior authorization and other issues.
We have more than three decades of experience, spanning seven presidents from both sides of the aisle, in delivering high-quality healthcare services on behalf of states and the federal government to under-insured and uninsured families, commercial organizations and military families. This expertise has allowed us to deliver cost-effective services to our government partners and our members. With trends in the personalization of healthcare technology, we continue the use of data and analytics to optimize our business. We continue to believe we have both the capacity and capability to successfully navigate industry changes to the benefit of our members, customers, providers and shareholders.
For additional information regarding regulatory trends and uncertainties, see Part I, Item 1 "Business - Regulation" and Item 1A, "Risk Factors."
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2023 Highlights
Our financial performance for 2023 is summarized as follows:
•Year-end membership of 27.5 million, an increase of 413 thousand members, or 2% over 2022.
•Total revenues of $154.0 billion, representing 7% growth year-over-year.
•Premium and service revenues of $140.1 billion, representing 3% growth year-over-year.
•HBR of 87.7% for 2023, compared to 87.7% for 2022.
•SG&A expense ratio of 9.0% for 2023, compared to 8.6% for 2022.
•Adjusted SG&A expense ratio of 8.9% for 2023, compared to 8.4% for 2022.
•Diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.95 for 2023, compared to $2.07 for 2022.
•Adjusted diluted EPS of $6.68 for 2023, compared to $5.78 for 2022, representing over 15% growth year-over-year.
•Operating cash flows of $8.1 billion, or 3.0 times net earnings and 2.2 times adjusted net earnings, for 2023.
A reconciliation from GAAP diluted EPS to Adjusted Diluted EPS is highlighted below, and additional detail is provided under the heading "Non-GAAP Financial Presentation":
We reference adjusted SG&A expense ratio defined as adjusted SG&A expenses, which excludes acquisition and divestiture related expenses and other items, divided by premium and service revenues. We also reference effective tax rate on adjusted earnings, defined as GAAP income tax expense (benefit) excluding the income tax effects of adjustments to net earnings divided by adjusted earnings (loss) before income tax expense.
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2022 | |||||
| GAAP diluted EPS attributable to Centene | $ | 4.95 | $ | 2.07 | ||
| Amortization of acquired intangible assets | 1.32 | 1.40 | ||||
| Acquisition and divestiture related expenses | 0.13 | 0.36 | ||||
| Other adjustments (1) | 0.85 | 2.65 | ||||
| Income tax effects of adjustments (2) | (0.57) | (0.70) | ||||
| Adjusted Diluted EPS | $ | 6.68 | $ | 5.78 |
(1) Other adjustments include the following pre-tax items:
2023:
(a) Circle Health impairment of $292 million, or $0.53 per share ($0.47 after-tax), Operose Health impairment of $140 million, or $0.26 per share ($0.24 after-tax), real estate impairments of $105 million, or $0.19 per share ($0.16 after-tax), gain on the sale of Apixio of $93 million, or $0.17 per share ($0.12 after-tax), severance costs due to a restructuring of $79 million, or $0.15 per share ($0.11 after-tax), gain on the sale of Magellan Specialty Health of $79 million, or $0.14 per share ($0.11 after-tax), a reduction to the previously reported gain on the sale of Magellan Rx of $22 million, or $0.04 per share ($0.02 after-tax), gain on the previously reported divestiture of Centurion of $15 million, or $0.03 per share ($0.02 after-tax) and an additional loss on the divestiture of our Spanish and Central European businesses of $13 million, or $0.02 per share ($0.01 after-tax).
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2022:
(b) real estate impairments of $1,642 million, or $2.82 per share ($2.08 after-tax), PANTHERx divestiture gain of $490 million, or $0.84 per share ($0.65 after-tax), impairments of assets associated with the divestitures of our Spanish and Central European, Centurion and HealthSmart businesses of $458 million, or $0.78 per share ($0.60 after-tax), Magellan Rx divestiture gain of $269 million, or $0.46 per share ($0.17 after-tax), Health Net Federal Services asset impairment of $233 million, or $0.40 per share ($0.39 after-tax), gain on debt extinguishment of $27 million, or $0.04 per share ($0.03 after-tax), increase to the previously reported gain on the divestiture of U.S. Medical Management (USMM) due to the finalization of working capital adjustments of $13 million, or $0.02 per share ($0.02 after-tax) and costs related to the pharmacy benefits management (PBM) legal settlement of $6 million, or $0.01 per share ($0.00 after-tax).
(2) The income tax effects of adjustments are based on the effective income tax rates applicable to each adjustment. In addition, the year ended December 31, 2023, includes a one-time income tax benefit of $69 million, or $0.13 per share, resulting from the distribution of long-term stock awards to the estate of the Company's former CEO and tax expense of $3 million, or $0.01 per share, related to tax adjustments on previously reported divestitures. The year ended December 31, 2022, includes tax expense of $107 million, or $0.18 per share, related to the Magellan Specialty Health divestiture and a $15 million, or $0.03 per share, tax benefit related to the RxAdvance impairment.
Current and Future Operating Drivers
The following items contributed to our results of operations as compared to the previous year:
Medicaid
•In December 2023, our subsidiaries, Carolina Complete Health and WellCare of North Carolina, began providing coverage under North Carolina's new Medicaid Expansion program.
•In September 2023, our subsidiary, Superior HealthPlan (Superior), commenced a new, six-year contract awarded by the Texas Health and Human Services Commission to continue providing youth in foster care with healthcare coverage through the STAR Health Medicaid program. Superior has been the sole provider of STAR Health coverage since the program launched in 2008.
•In April 2023, eligibility redeterminations related to the PHE began. We expect that these redeterminations will extend over a 14-month period, with the majority of states concluding in the second quarter of 2024. Eligibility suspensions from the onset of the PHE drove increased membership through March 2023 followed by decreases beginning in April through the end of 2023.
•In April 2023, the state of New York removed pharmacy services for certain of our managed care contracts in connection with the state's transition of pharmacy services to Medicaid fee-for-service.
•In February 2023, our subsidiary, Buckeye Health Plan, commenced the Medicaid contract awarded by the Ohio Department of Medicaid to continue providing members with quality healthcare, coordinated services and benefits.
•In January 2023, our subsidiary, Delaware First Health, commenced its new contract for the statewide Medicaid managed care programs.
•In January 2023, our subsidiary, Louisiana Healthcare Connections, commenced the Medicaid contract awarded by the Louisiana Department of Health to continue administering quality, integrated healthcare services to members across the state.
•In January 2023, our subsidiary, Managed Health Services, commenced the contract awarded by the Indiana Department of Administration to continue serving Hoosier Healthwise and Health Indiana Plan members with Medicaid and Medicaid alternative managed care and care coordination services.
•In October 2022, the state of Ohio removed pharmacy services in connection with the state's transition from managed care to a single PBM.
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•In July 2022, our subsidiary, Home State Health, commenced the MO HealthNet Managed Care General Plan and Specialty Plan contracts.
Medicare
•Medicare membership declined year-over-year due to lower enrollment during both the annual and open enrollment periods.
Commercial
•In 2023, our Health Insurance Marketplace product, Ambetter Health, expanded into Alabama and extended its footprint by more than 60 counties across 12 existing states. In total, the Marketplace plan is available in more than 1,500 counties across 28 states. Additionally, Marketplace membership increased year-over-year due to the expanded footprint, strong product positioning and open enrollment results, as well as overall market growth.
Other
•In June 2023, we completed the divestiture of Apixio. We maintain a close relationship with, and a minority interest in, the business.
•In January 2023, we completed the divestitures of Magellan Specialty Health, Centurion and HealthSmart.
•In December 2022, we completed the divestiture of Magellan Rx, which was part of the Magellan business acquired in January 2022.
•In November 2022, we completed the divestiture of our ownership stakes in our Spanish and Central European businesses, including Ribera Salud, Torrejón Salud and Pro Diagnostics Group.
•In July 2022, we completed the divestiture of PANTHERx.
We expect the following items to impact our future results of operations:
Medicaid
•In January 2024, our subsidiary, NH Healthy Families, was selected by the New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services to continue providing physical health, behavioral health and pharmacy services for New Hampshire's Medicaid managed care program, known as Medicaid Care Management (MCM). The contract is expected to begin in September 2024 for a five-year term.
•In January 2024, our subsidiary, Nebraska Total Care, commenced the statewide Medicaid managed care contract to continue serving the state's Medicaid Managed Care Program, known as Heritage Health. The initial contract term is five years and includes the option for two subsequent, one-year renewals, for a potential total of seven years.
•In January 2024, our subsidiary, Health Net of California, commenced direct Medicaid contracts in 10 counties, including Los Angeles (in which a portion is subcontracted).
•In January 2024, key coverage expansion provisions outlined in the 2022 year-end spending bill went into effect requiring states to provide 12 months of continuous coverage for children under Medicaid and Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP). The spending bill also made the state option to extend coverage for postpartum women for up to 12 months permanent.
•In December 2023, our subsidiary, Arizona Complete Health, the largest Medicaid health plan in Arizona, was selected by the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System – Arizona's single state Medicaid agency – to provide managed care for the Arizona Long Term Care System (ALTCS). The program supports nearly 26,000 Arizonans who are elderly and/or have a physical disability (E/PD) with physical and behavioral healthcare, as well as provides pharmacy benefits. The new ALTCS-E/PD contract is anticipated to begin in October 2024, subject to the resolution of third-party protests, and is a three-year term with four optional one-year extensions, for a total of seven possible contract years.
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•In July 2023, our subsidiary, Superior, announced it entered into a contract to continue to provide healthcare coverage to the aged, blind or disabled (ABD) population in the state's STAR+PLUS program. The contract is anticipated to begin in September 2024 for a six-year term with a maximum of three additional two-year extensions.
•In June 2023, our subsidiary, Oklahoma Complete Health, was selected by the Oklahoma Health Care Authority for statewide contracts to provide managed care for the SoonerSelect and SoonerSelect Children's Specialty Plan programs. The new contracts are anticipated to begin in April 2024 for a one-year term with five, one-year renewal options.
•In August 2022, our subsidiary, Magnolia Health Plan (Magnolia), was awarded the Mississippi Division of Medicaid contract. Under the new contract, Magnolia will continue serving the state's Coordinated Care Organization Program, which will consist of the Mississippi Coordinated Access Network and the Mississippi CHIP. The contract is anticipated to begin in January 2025, subject to the resolution of third-party protests.
•In August 2021, our subsidiaries, Carolina Complete Health and WellCare of North Carolina, were selected to coordinate physical and/or other health services with Local Management Entities/Managed Care Organizations under the state's new Tailored Plans. The Tailored Plans are integrated health plans designed for individuals with significant behavioral health needs and intellectual/developmental disabilities. The Tailored Plans are expected to commence no later than July 2024.
Medicare
•In October 2023, CMS issued 2024 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings on the Medicare Plan Finder. Based on the data, approximately 73% of membership is associated with contracts showing year-over-year unrounded score improvement, and approximately 87% of membership is associated with contracts rated 3.0 stars or better - compared to 53% in the prior year. While we have work to do to improve star scores, this demonstrated the first step towards our multi-year goals.
•The decrease in Star quality ratings in the 2023 rating year, which CMS published in October 2022, will adversely impact our 2024 Medicare revenue. The decrease in Star quality ratings is driven by the expiration of certain disaster relief provisions as well as deterioration in select metrics. Over the past year, our leadership team launched a multi-year plan to build and improve quality across the enterprise with a strong focus on enhanced patient experience and access to care. As a result of this expectation, we recorded a premium deficiency reserve of $250 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 in connection with the 2024 Medicare Advantage business.
Other
•In December 2023 and January 2024, we completed the divestitures of Operose Health and Circle Health, respectively.
•In June 2023, our subsidiary, Magellan Health was awarded the Idaho Behavioral Health Plan contract. The contract is anticipated to begin in July 2024 for a four-year term.
The benefits of successful execution of our Value Creation Plan have impacted our current results of operations and will continue to impact future results of operations, including the implementation of our new third-party PBM contract, which commenced in January 2024.
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MEMBERSHIP
From December 31, 2022 to December 31, 2023, our managed care membership increased by 413 thousand, or 2%. The following table sets forth our membership by line of business:
| December 31, | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2022 | |||
| Traditional Medicaid (1) | 12,754,000 | 14,264,800 | ||
| High Acuity Medicaid (2) | 1,718,000 | 1,710,000 | ||
| Total Medicaid (4) | 14,472,000 | 15,974,800 | ||
| Commercial Marketplace | 3,900,100 | 2,076,100 | ||
| Commercial Group | 427,500 | 441,100 | ||
| Total Commercial | 4,327,600 | 2,517,200 | ||
| Medicare (3) (4) | 1,284,200 | 1,511,100 | ||
| Medicare PDP | 4,617,800 | 4,226,000 | ||
| Total at-risk membership | 24,701,600 | 24,229,100 | ||
| TRICARE eligibles | 2,773,200 | 2,832,300 | ||
| Total | 27,474,800 | 27,061,400 | ||
| (1) | Membership includes Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), Medicaid Expansion, Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), Foster Care and Behavioral Health. | |||
| (2) | Membership includes Aged, Blind or Disabled (ABD), Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities (IDD), Long-Term Services and Supports (LTSS) and Medicare-Medicaid Plans (MMP) Duals. | |||
| (3) | Membership includes Medicare Advantage and Medicare Supplement. | |||
| (4) | Medicaid and Medicare membership includes 1,276,700 and 1,291,300 dual-eligible beneficiaries for the periods ending December 31, 2023, and December 31, 2022, respectively. |
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RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following discussion and analysis is based on our Consolidated Statements of Operations, which reflect our results of operations for years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively, prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (GAAP) ($ in millions, except per share data in dollars):
| 2023 | 2022 | % Change 2022-2023 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premium | $ | 135,636 | $ | 127,131 | 7 | % | ||||
| Service | 4,459 | 8,348 | (47) | % | ||||||
| Premium and service revenues | 140,095 | 135,479 | 3 | % | ||||||
| Premium tax | 13,904 | 9,068 | 53 | % | ||||||
| Total revenues | 153,999 | 144,547 | 7 | % | ||||||
| Medical costs | 118,894 | 111,529 | 7 | % | ||||||
| Cost of services | 3,564 | 7,032 | (49) | % | ||||||
| Selling, general and administrative expenses | 12,563 | 11,589 | 8 | % | ||||||
| Depreciation expense | 575 | 614 | (6) | % | ||||||
| Amortization of acquired intangible assets | 718 | 817 | (12) | % | ||||||
| Premium tax expense | 14,226 | 9,330 | 52 | % | ||||||
| Impairment | 529 | 2,318 | (77) | % | ||||||
| Earnings from operations | 2,930 | 1,318 | 122 | % | ||||||
| Investment and other income | 1,393 | 1,279 | 9 | % | ||||||
| Debt extinguishment | — | 30 | n.m. | |||||||
| Interest expense | (725) | (665) | 9 | % | ||||||
| Earnings before income tax expense | 3,598 | 1,962 | 83 | % | ||||||
| Income tax expense | 899 | 760 | 18 | % | ||||||
| Net earnings | 2,699 | 1,202 | 125 | % | ||||||
| Loss attributable to noncontrolling interests | 3 | — | n.m. | |||||||
| Net earnings attributable to Centene Corporation | $ | 2,702 | $ | 1,202 | 125 | % | ||||
| Diluted earnings per common share attributable to Centene Corporation | $ | 4.95 | $ | 2.07 | 139 | % | ||||
| n.m.: not meaningful |
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Year Ended December 31, 2023 Compared to Year Ended December 31, 2022
Total Revenues
Total revenues increased 7% in the year ended December 31, 2023, over the corresponding period in 2022 driven by 88% membership growth in the Marketplace business due to strong product positioning as well as overall market growth and increased Medicaid premium tax revenue. The revenue growth was partially offset by recent divestitures in the Other segment.
Operating Expenses
Medical Costs/HBR
The HBR for the year ended December 31, 2023 was 87.7%, compared to 87.7% in 2022. The 2023 HBR was positively impacted by growth in the Marketplace business, which runs at a lower HBR, and strong performance from pricing discipline and execution, offset by the $250 million premium deficiency reserve recorded in connection with the 2024 Medicare Advantage business.
Cost of Services
Cost of services decreased by $3.5 billion in the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to the corresponding period in 2022. The cost of service ratio for the year ended December 31, 2023 was 79.9%, compared to 84.2% in 2022. The decreases were driven by recent divestitures.
Selling, General & Administrative Expenses
The SG&A expense ratio was 9.0% for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to 8.6% for the year ended December 31, 2022. The adjusted SG&A expense ratio was 8.9% for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to 8.4% for the year ended December 31, 2022. The increases were driven by growth in the Marketplace business, which operates at a meaningfully higher SG&A ratio as compared to Medicaid, along with Medicare distribution costs. The increases were partially offset by ongoing SG&A reduction initiatives and continued leveraging of expenses over higher revenues.
Impairment
During the year ended December 31, 2023, we recorded total impairment charges of $529 million, including a $292 million charge related to assets associated with the divestiture of Circle Health, a $140 million charge related to the Operose Health divestiture and additional impairments of $97 million related to our ongoing real estate optimization initiative.
During the year ended December 31, 2022, we recorded total impairment charges of $2.3 billion primarily driven by $1.6 billion related to the reduction of our real estate footprint consisting of leased and owned real estate assets and related fixed assets. Additionally, we recorded impairment charges associated with the divestitures of our Spanish and Central European, Centurion and HealthSmart businesses of $458 million. We also recorded a $233 million impairment charge related to Health Net Federal Services business as a result of the Department of Defense's (DoD) December 2022 announcement to not award Health Net Federal Services a TRICARE Managed Care Support Contract.
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Other Income (Expense)
The following table summarizes the components of other income (expense) for the year ended December 31, ($ in millions):
| 2023 | 2022 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment and other income | $ | 1,393 | $ | 1,279 | ||
| Debt extinguishment | — | 30 | ||||
| Interest expense | (725) | (665) | ||||
| Other income (expense), net | $ | 668 | $ | 644 |
Investment and other income. Investment and other income increased by $114 million for the year ended December 31, 2023 compared to 2022, driven by higher interest rates on larger investment balances, a $93 million gain on the sale of Apixio, a $79 million gain on the sale of Magellan Specialty Health and a $15 million gain on the sale of Centurion, partially offset by a $75 million realized loss on the sale of investments from rebalancing a portion of our portfolio with a focus on higher interest rate investments, a $22 million reduction to the previously reported gain on the sale of Magellan Rx and an additional loss on the sale of our Spanish and Central European businesses of $13 million. The year ended December 31, 2022 included a $490 million gain on the sale of PANTHERx and a $269 million gain on the sale of Magellan Rx.
Debt extinguishment. In 2022, we repurchased $95 million of our 4.25% Senior Notes due 2027 and $223 million of our 4.625% Senior Notes due 2029 through our senior note debt repurchase program, resulting in a gain on extinguishment of $14 million. Additionally, we recognized a $13 million gain on the extinguishment of debt related to the refinancing of debt for our Circle Health subsidiary. The 2022 debt extinguishment also includes an immaterial gain related to the redemption of Magellan's outstanding Senior Notes in January 2022.
Interest expense. Interest expense for the year ended December 31, 2023 was $725 million compared to $665 million for the corresponding period in 2022. The increase was driven by higher interest rates on variable rate debt.
Income Tax Expense
For the year ended December 31, 2023, we recorded an income tax expense of $899 million on pre-tax earnings of $3.6 billion, or an effective tax rate of 25.0%. The effective tax rate for the year ended December 31, 2023 reflects the tax effects of the distribution of long-term stock awards to the estate of the Company's former CEO, divestiture gains and losses, lower state taxes and the pending divestiture of Circle Health. For the year ended December 31, 2023, our effective tax rate on adjusted earnings was 24.9%.
For the year ended December 31, 2022, we recorded income tax expense of $760 million on pre-tax earnings of $2.0 billion, or an effective tax rate of 38.7%, which reflected the tax effects of divestitures and impairments including the Magellan Rx divestiture gain, the non-deductible impairment of our Health Net Federal Services business, and tax impacts related to the reclassification of the Magellan Specialty Health Business to held for sale. For the year ended December 31, 2022, our effective tax rate on adjusted earnings was 25.8%.
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Segment Results
The following table summarizes our consolidated operating results by segment for the year ended December 31, ($ in millions):
| 2023 | 2022 | % Change 2022-2023 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenues | ||||||||||
| Medicaid | $ | 100,759 | $ | 93,151 | 8 | % | ||||
| Medicare | 22,261 | 22,484 | (1) | % | ||||||
| Commercial | 24,845 | 17,380 | 43 | % | ||||||
| Other | 6,134 | 11,532 | (47) | % | ||||||
| Consolidated Total | $ | 153,999 | $ | 144,547 | 7 | % | ||||
| Gross Margin (1) | ||||||||||
| Medicaid | $ | 8,641 | $ | 8,785 | (2) | % | ||||
| Medicare | 2,867 | 3,112 | (8) | % | ||||||
| Commercial | 5,029 | 3,288 | 53 | % | ||||||
| Other | 1,100 | 1,733 | (37) | % | ||||||
| Consolidated Total | $ | 17,637 | $ | 16,918 | 4 | % | ||||
| (1) | Gross margin represents premium and service revenues less medical costs and cost of services. |
Medicaid
Total revenues increased 8% in the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to the corresponding period in 2022 due to increased premium tax revenue, net rate increases, and expansions and new programs in various states in 2023, including California and North Carolina, and the commencement of our contract in Delaware, partially offset by Medicaid membership redeterminations and pharmacy carve outs in early 2023. Gross margin decreased $144 million in the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to the corresponding period in 2022 primarily driven by acuity shifts due to redeterminations, net of rate actions.
Medicare
Total revenues decreased 1% in the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to the corresponding period in 2022. Gross margin decreased $245 million in the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to the corresponding period in 2022 driven primarily by the premium deficiency reserve recorded in connection with the 2024 Medicare Advantage business.
Commercial
Total revenues increased 43% in the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to the corresponding period in 2022. Gross margin increased $1.7 billion in the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to the corresponding period in 2022. Increases were primarily driven by 88% membership growth in the Marketplace business, resulting from strong product positioning and overall market growth.
Other
Total revenues decreased 47% in the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to the corresponding period in 2022. Gross margin decreased $633 million in the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to the corresponding period in 2022. Decreases were primarily due to recent divestitures.
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LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
The following table is a condensed schedule of cash flows used in the discussion of liquidity and capital resources ($ in millions):
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2022 | |||||
| Net cash provided by operating activities | $ | 8,053 | $ | 6,261 | ||
| Net cash (used in) investing activities | (1,191) | (2,921) | ||||
| Net cash (used in) financing activities | (1,658) | (4,197) | ||||
| Effect of exchange rate changes on cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash | (32) | (11) | ||||
| Net increase (decrease) in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash and cash equivalents | $ | 5,172 | $ | (868) |
Cash Flows Provided by Operating Activities
Normal operations are funded primarily through operating cash flows and borrowings under our Revolving Credit Facility. In 2023, operating activities provided cash of $8.1 billion, or 3.0 times net earnings and 2.2 times adjusted net earnings, compared to $6.3 billion in 2022. Cash flows provided by operations in 2023 were primarily driven by net earnings, an increase in risk adjustment payable for Marketplace and the timing of pass-through payments.
Cash flows provided by operations in 2022 were driven by net earnings before the non-cash real estate and divestiture related impairment charges and an increase in medical claims liabilities driven by the timing of claims payments.
Cash Flows (Used in) Investing Activities
Investing activities used cash of $1.2 billion for the year ended December 31, 2023 and $2.9 billion in 2022. Cash flows used in investing activities in 2023 primarily consisted of net additions to the investment portfolio of our regulated subsidiaries (including transfers from cash and cash equivalents to long-term investments) and capital expenditures, partially offset by divestiture proceeds.
Cash flows used in investing activities in 2022 primarily consisted of the net additions to the investment portfolio of our regulated subsidiaries and our acquisition of Magellan, partially offset by PANTHERx and Magellan Rx divestiture proceeds.
We spent $799 million and $1.0 billion in the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively, on capital expenditures primarily for system enhancements and computer hardware.
As of December 31, 2023, our investment portfolio consisted primarily of fixed-income securities with a weighted average duration of 3.4 years. We had unregulated cash and investments of $1.0 billion at December 31, 2023, the majority of which was utilized in January 2024 to complete planned pass-through payments. At December 31, 2022, we had unregulated cash and investments of $1.4 billion, the majority of which was utilized in January 2023 to complete planned pass-through payments. Unregulated cash and investments include private equity investments and company owned life insurance contracts.
Cash Flows (Used in) Financing Activities
Financing activities used cash of $1.7 billion in the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to using cash of $4.2 billion in the comparable period in 2022. Financing activities in 2023 were driven by stock repurchases of $1.6 billion.
In 2022, financing activities were driven by stock repurchases of $3.0 billion, the redemption of Magellan's outstanding debt of $535 million assumed in the transaction using Magellan's cash on hand, senior note debt repurchases of $318 million and the repayment of our construction loan.
Liquidity Metrics
We have a stock repurchase program authorizing us to repurchase common stock from time to time on the open market or through privately negotiated transactions. In 2023, the Company's Board of Directors authorized up to a cumulative total of $10.0 billion of repurchases under the program.
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In 2023, we repurchased a total of 22.9 million shares of common stock for $1.6 billion under the stock repurchase program, primarily funded through divestiture proceeds and free cash flow generated from operations. We have approximately $5.2 billion remaining under the program as of December 31, 2023. No duration has been placed on the repurchase program. We reserve the right to discontinue the repurchase program at any time. Refer to Note 12. Stockholders' Equity for further information on stock repurchases.
As of December 31, 2023, we had an aggregate principal amount of $15.7 billion of senior notes issued and outstanding. The indentures governing our various maturities of senior notes contain limited restrictive covenants. As of December 31, 2023, we were in compliance with all covenants.
As part of our capital allocation strategy, we may decide to repurchase debt or raise capital through the issuance of debt in the form of senior notes. In 2022, the Company's Board of Directors authorized a $1.0 billion senior note debt repurchase program. No repurchases were made during the year ended December 31, 2023. As of December 31, 2023, there was $700 million available under the senior note debt repurchase program. Refer to Note 10. Debt for further information regarding the issuance and redemption of senior notes.
The credit agreement underlying our Revolving Credit Facility and Term Loan Facility contains customary covenants, as well as financial covenants, including, a minimum fixed charge coverage ratio and a maximum debt to EBITDA ratio. Our maximum debt to EBITDA ratio under the credit agreement may not exceed 4.0 to 1.0. As of December 31, 2023, we had $150 million of borrowings outstanding under our Revolving Credit Facility, $2.1 billion of borrowings outstanding under our Term Loan Facility and we were in compliance with all covenants. As of December 31, 2023, there were no limitations on the availability of our Revolving Credit Facility as a result of the debt to EBITDA ratio.
We had outstanding letters of credit of $152 million as of December 31, 2023, which were not part of our Revolving Credit Facility. The letters of credit bore weighted interest of 0.7% as of December 31, 2023. In addition, we had outstanding surety bonds of $856 million as of December 31, 2023.
At December 31, 2023, our debt to capital ratio, defined as total debt divided by the sum of total debt and total equity, was 40.7%, compared to 42.7% at December 31, 2022. The debt to capital ratio decrease was driven by net earnings and other comprehensive earnings, partially offset by stock repurchases in 2023. We utilize the debt to capital ratio as a measure, among others, of our leverage and financial flexibility.
At December 31, 2023, we had working capital, defined as current assets less current liabilities, of $4.0 billion, compared to $1.7 billion at December 31, 2022. We manage our short-term and long-term investments with the goal of ensuring that a sufficient portion is held in investments that are highly liquid and can be sold to fund short-term requirements as needed.
During the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, we received dividends of $2.3 billion and $1.6 billion, respectively, from our regulated subsidiaries.
2024 Expectations
During 2024, we expect to receive net dividends of approximately $3.0 billion from our regulated subsidiaries and expect to spend approximately $640 million in capital expenditures primarily associated with system enhancements.
We have material debt, short-term medical claims, lease and contingencies obligations. Refer to Note 10. Debt, Note 8. Medical Claims Liability, Note 11. Leases and Note 17. Contingencies, respectively, for further information.
Based on our operating plan, we expect that our available cash, cash equivalents and investments, cash from our operations and cash available under our Revolving Credit Facility will be sufficient to finance our general operations and capital expenditures for at least 12 months from the date of this filing. While we are currently in a strong liquidity position and believe we have adequate access to capital, we may elect to increase borrowings on our Revolving Credit Facility. Our long-term liquidity position is stable, with our senior notes maturing between December 2027 and August 2031, and our Revolving Credit Facility maturing in August 2026. From time to time, we may elect to raise additional funds for working capital and other purposes, either through issuance of debt or equity, the sale of investment securities or otherwise, as appropriate. In addition, we may strategically pursue refinancing or redemption opportunities to extend maturities and/or improve terms of our indebtedness if we believe such opportunities are favorable to us.
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Our strategic approach is to continue to target initiatives to improve productivity, efficiencies and reduced organizational costs, as well as execute on capital deployment activities, including stock repurchases and the evaluation of portfolio and refinancing opportunities. In addition to creating shareholder value, this approach encompasses a larger organizational mission to enhance our member and provider experience, improve outcomes for our members and to initiate new ways of doing business that make Centene a great partner in all aspects of our operations.
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REGULATORY CAPITAL AND DIVIDEND RESTRICTIONS
Our operations are conducted through our subsidiaries. As managed care organizations (MCOs), most of our subsidiaries are subject to state regulations and other requirements that, among other things, require the maintenance of minimum levels of statutory capital, as defined by each state, and restrict the timing, payment and amount of dividends and other distributions that may be paid to us. Generally, the amount of dividend distributions that may be paid by a regulated subsidiary without prior approval by state regulatory authorities is limited based on the entity's level of statutory net income and statutory capital and surplus.
As of December 31, 2023, our subsidiaries had aggregate statutory capital and surplus of $18.1 billion, compared with the required minimum aggregate statutory capital and surplus requirements of $8.3 billion. During the year ended December 31, 2023, we received dividends of $2.3 billion from and made $440 million of capital contributions to our regulated subsidiaries. For our subsidiaries that file with the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC), we estimate our Risk Based Capital (RBC) percentage to be in excess of 350% of the Authorized Control Level.
Under the California Knox-Keene Health Care Service Plan Act of 1975, as amended (Knox-Keene), certain of our California subsidiaries must comply with tangible net equity (TNE) requirements. Under these Knox-Keene TNE requirements, actual net worth less unsecured receivables and intangible assets must be more than the greater of (i) a fixed minimum amount, (ii) a minimum amount based on premiums or (iii) a minimum amount based on healthcare expenditures, excluding capitated amounts.
Under the New York State Department of Health Codes, Rules and Regulations Title 10, Part 98, our New York subsidiary must comply with contingent reserve requirements. Under these requirements, net worth based upon admitted assets must equal or exceed a minimum amount based on annual net premium income.
The NAIC has adopted rules which set minimum risk-based capital requirements for insurance companies, MCOs and other entities bearing risk for healthcare coverage. As of December 31, 2023, each of our health plans was in compliance with the risk-based capital requirements enacted in those states.
As a result of the above requirements and other regulatory requirements, certain of our subsidiaries are subject to restrictions on their ability to make dividend payments, loans or other transfers of cash to their parent companies. Such restrictions, unless amended or waived or unless regulatory approval is granted, limit the use of any cash generated by these subsidiaries to pay our obligations. The maximum amount of dividends that can be paid by our insurance company subsidiaries without prior approval of the applicable state insurance departments is subject to restrictions relating to statutory surplus, statutory income and unassigned surplus. As of December 31, 2023, the amount of capital and surplus or net worth that was unavailable for the payment of dividends or return of capital to us was $8.3 billion in the aggregate.
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RECENT ACCOUNTING PRONOUNCEMENTS
For this information, refer to Note 2. Summary of Significant Accounting Policies, in the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included herein.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
Our discussion and analysis of our results of operations and liquidity and capital resources are based on our consolidated financial statements which have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. Our significant accounting policies are more fully described in Note 2. Summary of Significant Accounting Policies, to our consolidated financial statements included elsewhere herein. Our accounting policies regarding intangible assets, medical claims liability and revenue recognition are particularly important to the portrayal of our financial condition and results of operations and require the application of significant judgment by our management. As a result, they are subject to an inherent degree of uncertainty. We have reviewed these critical accounting policies and related disclosures with the Audit and Compliance Committee of our Board of Directors.
Goodwill and Intangible Assets
We have made several acquisitions that have resulted in our recording of intangible assets. These intangible assets primarily consist of purchased contract rights and customer relationships, provider contracts, trade names, developed technologies and goodwill. Key assumptions used in the valuation of these intangible assets include, but are not limited to, member attrition rates, contract renewal probabilities, revenue growth rates, expectations of profitability and discount and royalty rates. We allocate the fair value of purchase consideration to the assets acquired and liabilities assumed based on their fair values at the acquisition date. The excess of the fair value of consideration transferred over the fair value of the net assets acquired is recorded as goodwill. Goodwill is generally attributable to the value of the synergies between the combined companies and the value of the acquired assembled workforce, neither of which qualifies for recognition as an intangible asset. At December 31, 2023, we had $17.6 billion of goodwill and $6.1 billion of other intangible assets.
Intangible assets are amortized using the straight-line method over the following periods:
| Intangible Asset | Amortization Period | |
|---|---|---|
| Purchased contract rights and customer relationships | 3 - 21 years | |
| Provider contracts | 4 - 15 years | |
| Trade names | 7 - 20 years | |
| Developed technologies | 2 - 7 years |
Our management evaluates whether events or circumstances have occurred that may affect the estimated useful life or the recoverability of the remaining balance of goodwill and other identifiable intangible assets. If the events or circumstances indicate that the remaining balance of the intangible asset or goodwill may be impaired, the potential impairment will be measured based upon the difference between the carrying amount of the intangible asset or goodwill and the fair value of such asset. Our management must make assumptions and estimates, such as the discount factor, future utility and other internal and external factors, in determining the estimated fair values. While we believe these assumptions and estimates are appropriate, other assumptions and estimates could be applied and might produce significantly different results.
In the first quarter of 2023, and in conjunction with our updated strategic plan, executive leadership realignment and corresponding 2023 divestitures, we revised the way we manage the business, evaluate performance and allocates resources, resulting in an updated segment structure comprised of (1) a Medicaid segment, (2) a Medicare segment, (3) a Commercial segment and (4) an Other segment. As a result of these changes, we reassigned goodwill to the impacted reporting units using a relative fair value allocation approach.
Goodwill is reviewed annually during the fourth quarter for impairment. In addition, an impairment analysis of intangible assets would be performed based on other factors. These factors include significant changes in membership, financial performance, state funding, medical contracts and provider networks and contracts.
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If a reporting unit's carrying amount exceeds its fair value, an entity will record an impairment charge based on that difference. The impairment charge will be limited to the amount of goodwill allocated to that reporting unit. We first assess qualitative factors to determine if a quantitative impairment test is necessary. We generally do not calculate the fair value of a reporting unit unless we determine, based on a qualitative assessment, that it is more likely than not that its fair value is less than its carrying amount. However, in certain circumstances, such as recent acquisitions, we may elect to perform a quantitative assessment without first assessing qualitative factors.
We do not believe any of our reporting units are currently at risk for impairment.
Medical Claims Liability
Our medical claims liability includes claims reported but not yet paid, or claims inventory, estimates for claims incurred but not reported (IBNR) and estimates for the costs necessary to process unpaid claims at the end of each period. We estimate our medical claims liability using actuarial methods that are commonly used by health insurance actuaries and meet Actuarial Standards of Practice. These actuarial methods consider factors such as historical data for payment patterns, cost trends, product mix, seasonality, utilization of healthcare services and other relevant factors.
Actuarial Standards of Practice generally require that the medical claims liability estimates be adequate to cover obligations under moderately adverse conditions. Moderately adverse conditions are situations in which the actual claims are expected to be higher than the otherwise estimated value of such claims at the time of estimate. The claims amounts ultimately settled will most likely be different than the estimate that satisfies the Actuarial Standards of Practice. We include in our IBNR an estimate for medical claims liability under moderately adverse conditions which represents the risk of adverse deviation of the estimates in our actuarial method of reserving.
We use our judgment to determine the assumptions to be used in the calculation of the required estimates. The assumptions we consider when estimating IBNR include, without limitation, claims receipt and payment experience (and variations in that experience), changes in membership, provider billing practices, healthcare service utilization trends, cost trends, product mix, seasonality, prior authorization of medical services, benefit changes, known outbreaks of disease or increased incidence of illness such as influenza, provider contract changes, changes to fee schedules and the incidence of high dollar or catastrophic claims.
We apply various estimation methods depending on the claim type and the period for which claims are being estimated. For more recent periods, incurred non-inpatient claims are estimated based on historical per member per month claims experience adjusted for known factors. Incurred hospital inpatient claims are estimated based on known inpatient utilization data and prior claims experience adjusted for known factors. For older periods, we utilize an estimated completion factor based on our historical experience to develop IBNR estimates. The completion factor is an actuarial estimate of the percentage of claims that have been received or adjudicated as of the end of a reporting period relative to the estimate of the total ultimate incurred costs for that same period. When we commence operations in a new state or region, we have limited information with which to estimate our medical claims liability. See "Risk Factors - Failure to accurately estimate and price our medical expenses or effectively manage our medical costs or related administrative costs could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows." These approaches are consistently applied to each period presented.
Our development of the medical claims liability estimate is a continuous process which we monitor and refine on a monthly basis as additional claims receipts and payment information becomes available. As more complete claims information becomes available, we adjust the amount of the estimates and include the changes in estimates in medical costs in the period in which the changes are identified. In every reporting period, our operating results include the effects of more completely developed medical claims liability estimates associated with previously reported periods. We consistently apply our reserving methodology from period to period. As additional information becomes known to us, we adjust our actuarial models accordingly to establish medical claims liability estimates.
We review actual and anticipated experience compared to the assumptions used to establish medical costs. We establish premium deficiency reserves if actual and anticipated experience indicates that existing policy liabilities together with the present value of future gross premiums will not be sufficient to cover the present value of future benefits, settlement and maintenance costs. For purposes of determining premium deficiencies, contracts are grouped in a manner consistent with the method of acquiring, servicing and measuring the profitability of such contracts and expected investment income is excluded. In December 2023, we recorded a premium deficiency reserve of $250 million related to the 2024 Medicare Advantage contract year.
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The paid and received completion factors, claims per member per month and per diem cost trend factors are the most significant factors affecting the IBNR estimate. The following table illustrates the sensitivity of these factors and the estimated potential impact on our operating results caused by changes in these factors based on December 31, 2023 data:
| Completion Factors: (1) | Cost Trend Factors: (2) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Decrease) Increase in Factors | Increase (Decrease) in Medical Claims Liabilities | (Decrease) Increase in Factors | Increase (Decrease) in Medical Claims Liabilities | ||||||||
| (In millions) | (In millions) | ||||||||||
| (1.00) | % | $ | 1,161 | (1.00) | % | $ | (224) | ||||
| (0.75) | 867 | (0.75) | (168) | ||||||||
| (0.50) | 575 | (0.50) | (112) | ||||||||
| (0.25) | 286 | (0.25) | (56) | ||||||||
| 0.25 | (284) | 0.25 | 56 | ||||||||
| 0.50 | (565) | 0.50 | 112 | ||||||||
| 0.75 | (844) | 0.75 | 168 | ||||||||
| 1.00 | (1,120) | 1.00 | 224 | ||||||||
| (1) | Reflects estimated potential changes in medical claims liability caused by changes in completion factors. | ||||||||||
| (2) | Reflects estimated potential changes in medical claims liability caused by changes in cost trend factors for the most recent periods. |
While we believe our estimates are appropriate, it is possible future events could require us to make significant adjustments for revisions to these estimates. For example, a 1% increase or decrease in our estimated medical claims liability would have affected net earnings by $135 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, excluding the effect of any return of premium, risk corridor or minimum medical loss ratio (MLR) programs. The estimates are based on our historical experience, terms of existing contracts, our observance of trends in the industry, information provided by our providers and information available from other outside sources.
The change in medical claims liability is summarized as follows (in millions):
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||
| Balance, January 1, | $ | 16,745 | $ | 14,243 | $ | 12,438 | ||||
| Less: Reinsurance recoverables | 26 | 23 | 23 | |||||||
| Balance, January 1, net | 16,719 | 14,220 | 12,415 | |||||||
| Acquisitions and divestitures | — | 105 | — | |||||||
| Incurred related to: | ||||||||||
| Current year | 120,680 | 112,896 | 100,385 | |||||||
| Prior years | (2,036) | (1,367) | (1,783) | |||||||
| Total incurred | 118,644 | 111,529 | 98,602 | |||||||
| Paid related to: | ||||||||||
| Current year | 104,725 | 97,799 | 87,427 | |||||||
| Prior years | 12,937 | 11,336 | 9,370 | |||||||
| Total paid | 117,662 | 109,135 | 96,797 | |||||||
| Plus: Premium deficiency reserve | 250 | — | — | |||||||
| Balance, December 31, net | 17,951 | 16,719 | 14,220 | |||||||
| Plus: Reinsurance recoverables | 49 | 26 | 23 | |||||||
| Balance, December 31, | $ | 18,000 | $ | 16,745 | $ | 14,243 | ||||
| Days in claims payable (1) | 54 | 54 | 52 | |||||||
| (1) | Days in claims payable is a calculation of medical claims liability at the end of the period divided by average expense per calendar day for the fourth quarter of each year. |
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Medical claims are usually paid within a few months of the member receiving service from the physician or other healthcare provider. As a result, the liability generally is described as having a "short-tail," which causes less than 10% of our medical claims liability as of the end of any given year to be outstanding the following year. We believe that substantially all the development of the estimate of medical claims liability as of December 31, 2023 will be known by the end of 2024.
Changes in estimates of incurred claims for prior years are primarily attributable to reserving under moderately adverse conditions. Additionally, as a result of minimum HBR and other return of premium programs, approximately $382 million, $198 million and $492 million of the "Incurred related to: Prior years" was recorded as a reduction to premium revenues in 2023, 2022 and 2021, respectively. Further, claims processing and coordination of benefits initiatives yielded claim payment recoveries related to dates of service from prior years. Changes in medical utilization and cost trends and the effect of population health management initiatives may also contribute to changes in medical claim liability estimates. While we have evidence that population health management initiatives are effective on a case by case basis, these initiatives primarily focus on events and behaviors prior to the incurrence of the medical event and generation of a claim. Accordingly, any change in behavior, leveling of care or coordination of treatment occurs prior to claim generation and as a result, the costs prior to the population health management initiative are not known by us. Additionally, certain population health management initiatives are focused on member and provider education with the intent of influencing behavior to appropriately align the medical services provided with the member's acuity. In these cases, determining whether the population health management initiative changed the behavior cannot be determined. Because of the complexity of our business, the number of states in which we operate and the volume of claims that we process, we are unable to practically quantify the impact of these initiatives on our changes in estimates of IBNR.
The following are examples of population health management initiatives that may have contributed to the favorable development through lower medical utilization and cost trends:
•Appropriate leveling of care for neonatal intensive care unit hospital admissions, other inpatient hospital admissions and observation admissions, in accordance with InterQual or other evidence-based criteria or clinical policy.
•Management of our pre-authorization list, monitoring for over-utilized services and stringent review of durable medical equipment and injectables.
•Emergency department programs designed to collaboratively work with hospitals and members to steer non-emergent care to a more appropriate and cost effective setting (through patient education, on-site alternative urgent care settings, etc.).
•Increased emphasis on care management and clinical rounding where nurse or social worker care managers assist selected high-risk members with the coordination of healthcare services in order to meet a patient's specific healthcare needs.
•Incorporation of disease management, which is a comprehensive, multidisciplinary, collaborative approach to chronic illnesses such as asthma.
•Prenatal and infant health programs.
Revenue Recognition
Our health plans generate revenues primarily from premiums received from the states in which we operate health plans, premiums received from our members and CMS for our Medicare product and premiums from members of our commercial health plans. In addition to member premium payments, our Marketplace contracts also generate revenues from subsidies received from CMS. We generally receive a fixed premium per member per month pursuant to our contracts and recognize premium revenues during the period in which we are obligated to provide services to our members at the amount reasonably estimable. In some instances, our base premiums are subject to an adjustment, in the form of a risk score or risk adjustment, based on the acuity of our membership. Generally, the risk score or risk adjustment is determined by the state or CMS analyzing submissions of processed claims and medical record data to determine the acuity of our membership, often relative to the respective program's membership. We estimate the amount of risk score and risk adjustment based upon the processed claims and medical record data submitted and expected to be submitted to the state or CMS and record revenues on a risk adjusted basis. Some contracts allow for additional premiums related to certain supplemental services provided such as maternity deliveries.
Our contracts with states may require us to maintain a minimum HBR or may require us to share cost-savings in excess of certain levels. In certain circumstances, including commercial plans, our plans may be required to return premium to the state or policyholders in the event costs are below established levels. We estimate the effect of these programs and recognize reductions in revenue in the current period. Other states may require us to meet certain performance and quality metrics in order to receive additional or full contractual revenue. For performance-based contracts, we do not recognize revenue subject to refund until data is sufficient to measure performance.
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Revenues are recorded based on membership and eligibility data provided by the states or CMS, which is adjusted on a monthly basis by the states or CMS for retroactive additions or deletions to membership data. These eligibility adjustments are estimated monthly and subsequent adjustments are made in the period known. We continuously review and update those estimates as new information becomes available. It is possible that new information could require us to make additional adjustments, which could be significant, to these estimates.
Our Medicare Advantage contracts are with CMS. CMS deploys a risk adjustment model which apportions premiums paid to all health plans according to health severity and certain demographic factors. The CMS risk adjustment model pays more for members whose medical history would indicate that they are expected to have higher medical costs. Under this risk adjustment methodology, CMS calculates the risk adjusted premium payment using diagnosis data from hospital inpatient, hospital outpatient, physician treatment settings as well as prescription drug events. We and the healthcare providers collect, compile and submit the necessary and available diagnosis data to CMS within prescribed deadlines. We estimate risk adjustment revenues based upon the diagnosis data submitted and expected to be submitted to CMS and record revenues on a risk adjusted basis.
For qualifying low-income prescription drug benefit members, CMS pays for some, or all, of the member's monthly premium. We receive certain Part D prospective subsidy payments from CMS for these members as a fixed monthly per member amount, based on the estimated costs of providing prescription drug benefits over the plan year, as reflected in our bids. Approximately nine to ten months subsequent to the end of the plan year, or later in the case of the coverage gap discount subsidy, a settlement payment is made between CMS and our plans based on the difference between the prospective payments and actual claims experience.
Our specialty companies generate revenues under contracts with state and federal programs, healthcare organizations and other commercial organizations and from our own subsidiaries. Revenues are recognized when the related services are provided or as ratably earned over the covered period of services. For performance-based measures in our contracts, revenue is recognized as data sufficient to measure performance is available. We recognize revenue related to administrative services under the TRICARE government-sponsored Managed Care Support Contract for the DoD's TRICARE program on a straight-line basis over the option period, when the fees become fixed and determinable. The TRICARE contract includes various performance-based measures. For each of the measures, an estimate of the amount that has been earned is made at each interim date, and revenue is recognized accordingly.
Some states enact premium taxes, similar assessments and provider pass-through payments, collectively premium taxes, and these taxes are recorded as a separate component of both revenues and operating expenses. For certain products, premium taxes and state assessments are not pass-through payments and are recorded as premium revenue and premium tax expense in the Consolidated Statements of Operations.
Some states require state directed payments that have minimal risk, but are administered as a premium adjustment. These payments are recorded as premium revenue and medical costs at close to a 100% HBR. In many instances, we have little visibility to the timing of these payments until they are paid by the state.
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