CUMMINS INC (CMI) FY 2023 MD&A

ITEM 7.    Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

ORGANIZATION OF INFORMATION

The following Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (MD&A) was prepared to provide the reader with a view and perspective of our business through the eyes of management and should be read in conjunction with our Consolidated Financial Statements and the accompanying notes to those financial statements. Our MD&A is presented in the following sections:

•EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

•RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

•OPERATING SEGMENT RESULTS

•2024 OUTLOOK

•LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

•APPLICATION OF CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES

•RECENTLY ADOPTED AND RECENTLY ISSUED ACCOUNTING PRONOUNCEMENTS

The following is the discussion and analysis of changes in the financial condition and results of operations for fiscal year 2023 compared to fiscal year 2022. The discussion and analysis of fiscal year 2021 and changes in the financial condition and results of operations for fiscal year 2022 compared to fiscal year 2021, that are not included in this Form 10-K, may be found in Part II, ITEM 7 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on February 14, 2023.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

Overview

We are a global power leader that designs, manufactures, distributes and services diesel, natural gas, electric and hybrid powertrains and powertrain-related components including filtration, aftertreatment, turbochargers, fuel systems, valvetrain technologies, controls systems, air handling systems, automated transmissions, axles, drivelines, brakes, suspension systems, electric power generation systems, batteries, electrified power systems, hydrogen production technologies and fuel cell products. We sell our products to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), distributors, dealers and other customers worldwide. We have long-standing relationships with many of the leading manufacturers in the markets we serve, including PACCAR Inc, Traton Group, Daimler Trucks North America and Stellantis N.V. We serve our customers through a service network of approximately 450 wholly-owned, joint venture and independent distributor locations and more than 19,000 Cummins certified dealer locations in approximately 190 countries and territories.

As previously announced, beginning in the first quarter of 2023, we realigned certain businesses and regions within our reportable segments to be consistent with how our segment managers monitor the performance of our segments. We reorganized the businesses within our Components segment to carve out the electronics business into the newly formed software and electronics business and combined the turbo technologies and fuel systems businesses into the newly formed engine components business. On May 26, 2023, with the Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. (Atmus) initial public offering (IPO), we changed the name of our Components' filtration business to Atmus. Our Components segment now consists of the following businesses: axles and brakes, emission solutions, engine components, Atmus, automated transmissions and software and electronics. In the first quarter of 2023, as a result of the indefinite suspension of operations in Russia, we reorganized the regional management structure of our Distribution segment and moved all Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) sales into the Europe and Africa and Middle East regions. The Russian portion of prior period CIS sales moved to the Europe region. In March 2023, we rebranded our New Power segment as "Accelera" to better represent our commitment to zero-emission technologies. In addition, we moved our NPROXX joint venture from the Accelera segment to the Engine segment, which adjusted both the equity, royalty and interest income (loss) from investees and segment EBITDA (defined as earnings or losses before interest expense, income taxes, depreciation, amortization and noncontrolling interests) line items for the prior years. We started to report results for the changes within our operating segments effective January 1, 2023, and reflected these changes in the historical periods presented. See NOTE 23, "FORMATION OF ATMUS AND IPO," to our Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information about the Atmus IPO.

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Our reportable operating segments consist of Components, Engine, Distribution, Power Systems and Accelera. This reporting structure is organized according to the products and markets each segment serves. The Components segment sells axles, drivelines, brakes and suspension systems for commercial diesel and natural gas applications, aftertreatment systems, turbochargers, fuel systems, valvetrain technologies, filtration products, automated transmissions and electronics. The Engine segment produces engines (15 liters and smaller) and associated parts for sale to customers in on-highway and various off-highway markets. Our engines are used in trucks of all sizes, buses and recreational vehicles, as well as in various industrial applications, including construction, agriculture, power generation systems and other off-highway applications. The Distribution segment includes wholly-owned and partially-owned distributorships engaged in wholesaling engines, generator sets and service parts, as well as performing service and repair activities on our products and maintaining relationships with various OEMs throughout the world. The Power Systems segment is an integrated power provider, which designs, manufactures and sells engines (16 liters and larger) for industrial applications (including mining, oil and gas, marine and rail), standby and prime power generator sets, alternators and other power components. The Accelera segment designs, manufactures, sells and supports hydrogen production technologies as well as electrified power systems with innovative components and subsystems, including battery, fuel cell and electric powertrain technologies. The Accelera segment is currently in the early stages of commercializing these technologies with efforts primarily focused on the development of our electrolyzers for hydrogen production and electrified power systems and related components and subsystems. We continue to serve all our markets as they adopt electrification and alternative power technologies, meeting the needs of our OEM partners and end customers.

Our financial performance depends, in large part, on varying conditions in the markets we serve, particularly the on-highway, construction and general industrial markets. Demand in these markets tends to fluctuate in response to overall economic conditions. Our sales may also be impacted by OEM inventory levels, production schedules, stoppages and supply chain challenges. Economic downturns in markets we serve generally result in reduced sales of our products and can result in price reductions in certain products and/or markets. As a worldwide business, our operations are also affected by geopolitical risks, currency fluctuations, political and economic uncertainty, public health crises (epidemics or pandemics) and regulatory matters, including adoption and enforcement of environmental and emission standards, in the countries we serve. As part of our growth strategy, we invest in businesses in certain countries that carry higher levels of these risks such as China, Brazil, India, Mexico and countries in the Middle East and Africa. At the same time, our geographic diversity and broad product and service offerings have helped limit the impact from a drop in demand in any one industry, region, the economy of any single country or customer on our consolidated results.

Agreement in Principle

In December 2023, we announced that we reached an agreement in principle with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the California Air Resources Board (CARB), the Environmental and Natural Resources Division of the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the California Attorney General’s Office (CA AG) to resolve certain regulatory civil claims regarding our emissions certification and compliance process for certain engines primarily used in pick-up truck applications in the U.S. (collectively, the Agreement in Principle). As part of the Agreement in Principle, among other things, we agreed to pay civil penalties, complete recall requirements, undertake mitigation projects, provide extended warranties, undertake certain testing, take certain corporate compliance measures and make certain payments. Failure to comply with the terms and conditions of the Agreement in Principle will subject us to further stipulated penalties. We recorded a charge of $2.036 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023 to resolve the matters addressed by the Agreement in Principle involving approximately one million of our pick-up truck applications in the U.S. This charge was in addition to the previously announced charges of $59 million for the recalls of model years 2013 through 2018 RAM 2500 and 3500 trucks and model years 2016 through 2019 Titan trucks. Of this amount, $1.938 billion relates to payments that are expected to be made in 2024. See NOTE 2, "AGREEMENT IN PRINCIPLE," to our Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.

2023 Results

A summary of our results is as follows:

Worldwide revenues improved 21 percent in 2023 compared to 2022, due to increased axles and brakes sales in the Components segment of $2.9 billion from the Meritor acquisition on August 3, 2022, and higher demand in all operating segments and most geographic regions, partially offset by the decrease in Russian sales due to the indefinite suspension of our Russian operations in March 2022. Net sales in the U.S. and Canada improved by 22 percent primarily due to incremental sales of axles and brakes,

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increased demand in all Distribution product lines and stronger demand in heavy-duty and medium-duty truck markets, which positively impacted most Components businesses. International demand (excludes the U.S. and Canada) improved by 20 percent, with higher sales in most geographic regions, partially offset by a decrease in Russian sales due to the indefinite suspension of our operations in March 2022. The increase in international sales was principally due to incremental sales of axles and brakes in Western Europe, Latin America, Asia Pacific and India and higher demand for power generation equipment. Unfavorable foreign currency fluctuations impacted international sales by 1 percent (mainly the Chinese renminbi and Indian rupee, partially offset by the Euro).

The following table contains sales and EBITDA by operating segment for the years ended December 31, 2023, and 2022. See NOTE 25, "OPERATING SEGMENTS," to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information and a reconciliation of our segment information to the corresponding amounts in our Consolidated Statements of Net Income.

Net income attributable to Cummins Inc. for 2023 was $735 million, or $5.15 per diluted share, on sales of $34.1 billion, compared to 2022 net income attributable to Cummins Inc. of $2.2 billion, or $15.12 per diluted share, on sales of $28.1 billion. The decreases in net income attributable to Cummins Inc. and earnings per diluted share were driven by the $2.0 billion charge related to the Agreement in Principle and increased compensation expenses, partially offset by higher net sales and improved gross margins. The increase in gross margin was mainly due to favorable pricing and higher volumes (including sales of axles and brakes from the Meritor acquisition), partially offset by higher compensation expenses.

We generated $4.0 billion of operating cash flows in 2023, compared to $2.0 billion in 2022. See the section titled "Cash Flows" in the "LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES" section for a discussion of items impacting cash flows.

Our debt to capital ratio (total capital defined as debt plus equity) at December 31, 2023, was 40.3 percent, compared to 44.1 percent at December 31, 2022. The decrease was primarily due to lower debt. At December 31, 2023, we had $2.7 billion in cash and marketable securities on hand and access to our $4.0 billion credit facilities (net of commercial paper outstanding), if necessary, to meet acquisition, working capital, investment and funding needs.

On October 2, 2023, we repaid our $500 million senior notes, due 2023, using a combination of cash on hand and additional commercial paper borrowings.

On October 2, 2023, we purchased all of the equity ownership of Faurecia's U.S. and Europe commercial vehicle exhaust business from the Forvia Group for $210 million, subject to final working capital and other adjustments. See NOTE 24, "ACQUISITIONS," to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.

In July 2023, the Board authorized an increase to our quarterly dividend of approximately 7 percent from $1.57 per share to $1.68 per share.

On June 29, 2023, a share purchase agreement was executed with the minority shareholders of Hydrogenics Corporation (Hydrogenics) whereby we agreed to pay the minority shareholders $335 million for their 19 percent ownership, including the settlement of shareholder loans of $48 million. As part of the share purchase agreement, Hydrogenics entered into three non-interest-bearing promissory notes with $175 million paid on July 31, 2023, and the remaining $160 million due in three installments through 2025. See NOTE 24, "ACQUISITIONS," to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.

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On June 5, 2023, we entered into an amended and restated 364-day credit agreement that allows us to borrow up to $2.0 billion of unsecured funds at any time prior to June 3, 2024. This credit agreement amended and restated the prior $1.5 billion 364-day credit facility that was scheduled to mature on August 16, 2023. In connection with the 364-day credit agreement, effective June 5, 2023, we terminated our $500 million incremental 364-day credit agreement dated August 17, 2022.

On May 23, 2023, in connection with the Atmus IPO, Cummins issued approximately $350 million of commercial paper with certain lenders. On May 26, 2023, Atmus shares began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "ATMU." The IPO was completed on May 30, 2023, whereby Cummins exchanged 19.5 percent (approximately 16 million shares) of its ownership in Atmus, at $19.50 per share, to retire $299 million of the commercial paper as proceeds from the offering through a non-cash transaction. As we still own 80.5 percent of Atmus shares, it remains included in our Consolidated Financial Statements. See NOTE 23, "FORMATION OF ATMUS AND IPO," to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.

On April 3, 2023, we purchased all of the equity ownership interest of Teksid Hierro de Mexico, S.A. de C.V. (Teksid MX) and Teksid, Inc. from Stellantis N.V. for approximately $143 million, subject to certain adjustments set forth in the agreement. See NOTE 24, "ACQUISITIONS," to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.

In 2023, the investment gain on our U.S. pension trusts was 6.81 percent, while our U.K. pension trusts' loss was 4.37 percent. Our global pension plans, including our unfunded and non-qualified plans, were 113 percent funded at December 31, 2023. Our U.S. defined benefit plans (qualified and non-qualified), which represented approximately 69 percent of the worldwide pension obligation, were 113 percent funded, and our U.K. defined benefit plans were 113 percent funded at December 31, 2023. We expect to contribute approximately $67 million in cash to our global pension plans in 2024. In addition, we expect our 2024 net periodic pension cost to approximate $33 million. See application of critical accounting estimates within MD&A and NOTE 11, "PENSIONS AND OTHER POSTRETIREMENT BENEFITS," to the Consolidated Financial Statements, for additional information concerning our pension and other postretirement benefit plans.

As of the date of this filing, our credit ratings from Moody's Investor Services, Inc. remain unchanged and the outlook remains stable, while Standard and Poor's Rating Services downgraded our long-term rating to A while our short-term rate remained at A1 and our outlook remained stable.

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RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

2023 vs. 2022

Net Sales

Net sales increased $6.0 billion, primarily driven by the following:

•Components segment sales increased 38 percent largely due to axles and brakes sales from the Meritor acquisition.

•Distribution segment sales increased 15 percent due to higher demand across all product lines, especially in North America.

•Engine segment sales increased 7 percent principally due to stronger heavy-duty and medium-duty truck demand in North America.

•Power Systems segment sales increased 13 percent primarily due to higher demand in power generation markets.

These increases were partially offset by unfavorable foreign currency fluctuations of 1 percent of total sales, primarily in the Chinese renminbi and Indian rupee, partially offset by the Euro.

Sales to international markets (excluding the U.S. and Canada), based on location of customers, were 39 percent of total net sales in 2023, compared with 40 percent of total net sales in 2022. A more detailed discussion of sales by segment is presented in the "OPERATING SEGMENT RESULTS" section.

Cost of Sales

The types of expenses included in cost of sales are the following: parts and material consumption, including direct and indirect materials; compensation and related expenses including variable compensation, salaries and fringe benefits; depreciation on

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production equipment and facilities and amortization of technology intangibles; estimated costs of warranty programs and campaigns; production utilities; production-related purchasing; warehousing, including receiving and inspection; freight costs; engineering support costs; repairs and maintenance; production and warehousing facility property insurance; rent for production facilities; charges for the write-downs of inventories in Russia and other production overhead.

Gross Margin

Gross margin increased $1.5 billion and increased 0.3 points as a percentage of sales. The increase in gross margin and gross margin as a percentage of sales was mainly due to favorable pricing and higher volumes (including sales of axles and brakes from the Meritor acquisition), partially offset by higher compensation expenses. The provision for base warranties issued as a percentage of sales was 1.8 percent in 2023 and 1.8 percent in 2022.

Selling, General and Administrative Expenses

Selling, general and administrative expenses increased $646 million, primarily due to higher compensation expenses and higher consulting expenses. Compensation and related expenses include variable compensation, salaries and fringe benefits. Overall, selling, general and administrative expenses, as a percentage of sales, increased to 9.8 percent in 2023 from 9.6 percent in 2022, as selling, general and administrative expenses increased at a faster rate than net sales.

Research, Development and Engineering Expenses

Research, development and engineering expenses increased $222 million, principally due to higher compensation costs. Compensation and related expenses include variable compensation, salaries and fringe benefits. Overall, research, development and engineering expenses, as a percentage of sales, decreased to 4.4 percent in 2023 from 4.6 percent in 2022, as research, development and engineering expenses increased at a slower rate than net sales.

Research activities continue to focus on development of new products and improvements of current technologies to meet future emission standards around the world, improvements in fuel economy performance of diesel and natural gas-powered engines and related components, as well as development activities around hydrogen engine solutions, battery electric, fuel cell electric and hydrogen production technologies.

Equity, Royalty and Interest Income From Investees

Equity, royalty and interest income from investees increased $134 million, mainly due to the absence of the $28 million impairment of our Russian joint venture with KAMAZ, higher earnings at Dongfeng Cummins Engine Co., Ltd., Komatsu Cummins Chile, Ltda. and Beijing Foton Cummins Engine Co., Ltd., higher royalty and interest income from investees and increased joint venture earnings from the Meritor acquisition. See NOTE 4, "INVESTMENTS IN EQUITY INVESTEES," and NOTE 22, "RUSSIAN OPERATIONS," to our Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.

Other Operating Expense, Net

Other operating (expense) income, net was as follows:

Interest Expense

Interest expense increased $176 million, primarily due to higher weighted-average term loan borrowings and increased interest rates.

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Other Income, Net

Other income (expense), net was as follows:

Income Tax Expense

Our effective tax rate for 2023 was 48.3 percent compared to 22.6 percent for 2022.

The year ended December 31, 2023, contained unfavorable net discrete items of $397 million, primarily due to $398 million in the fourth quarter related to the $2.0 billion charge from the Agreement in Principle, $22 million of unfavorable adjustments for uncertain tax positions and $3 million of net unfavorable other discrete tax items, partially offset by $21 million of favorable return to provision adjustments and $5 million of favorable share-based compensation tax benefit.

The year ended December 31, 2022, contained discrete tax items that netted to zero, primarily due to $31 million of favorable changes in accrued withholding taxes, $29 million of favorable changes in tax reserves, $15 million of favorable valuation allowance adjustments and $9 million of favorable other net discrete items, offset by $69 million of unfavorable tax costs associated with internal restructuring ahead of the planned separation of Atmus and $15 million of unfavorable return to provision adjustments related to the 2021 filed tax returns.

The change in effective tax rate for the year ended December 31, 2023, versus year ended December 31, 2022, was primarily due to the Agreement in Principle, of which $1.732 billion (primarily related to penalties) was non-deductible for tax purposes, jurisdictional mix of pre-tax income and actual and planned repatriations of earnings back to the U.S. See NOTE 2, "AGREEMENT IN PRINCIPLE," to our Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.

Our effective tax rate for 2024 is expected to approximate 24.0 percent, excluding any discrete tax items that may arise.

Net Income Attributable to Noncontrolling Interests

Noncontrolling interests eliminate the income or loss attributable to non-Cummins ownership interests in our consolidated entities. Noncontrolling interests in income of consolidated subsidiaries increased $73 million principally due to higher earnings at Cummins India Limited and Eaton Cummins Joint Venture, as well as earnings attributable to the divested, noncontrolling interest in Atmus.

2022 vs. 2021

For prior year results of operations comparisons to 2021 see the Results of Operations section of our 2022 Form 10-K.

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Comprehensive Income - Foreign Currency Translation Adjustment

The foreign currency translation adjustment was a net gain of $92 million and net loss of $384 million for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. The details were as follows:

2022 vs. 2021

For prior year foreign currency translation adjustment comparisons to 2021 see the Results of Operations section of our 2022 Form 10-K.

OPERATING SEGMENT RESULTS

As previously announced, beginning in the first quarter of 2023, we realigned certain businesses and regions within our reportable segments to be consistent with how our segment managers monitor the performance of our segments. We reorganized the businesses within our Components segment to carve out the electronics business into the newly formed software and electronics business and combined the turbo technologies and fuel systems businesses into the newly formed engine components business. On May 26, 2023, with the IPO, we changed the name of our Components' filtration business to Atmus. Our Components segment now consists of the following businesses: axles and brakes, emission solutions, engine components, Atmus, automated transmissions and software and electronics. In the first quarter of 2023, as a result of the indefinite suspension of operations in Russia, we reorganized the regional management structure of our Distribution segment and moved all Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) sales into the Europe and Africa and Middle East regions. The Russian portion of prior period CIS sales moved to the Europe region. In March 2023, we rebranded our New Power segment as "Accelera" to better represent our commitment to zero-emission technologies. In addition, we moved our NPROXX joint venture from the Accelera segment to the Engine segment, which adjusted both the equity, royalty and interest income from investees and segment EBITDA line items for the current and prior year. We started to report results for the changes within our operating segments effective January 1, 2023, and reflected these changes in the historical periods presented. See NOTE 23, "FORMATION OF ATMUS AND IPO," to our Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information about the Atmus IPO.

Our reportable operating segments consist of the Components, Engine, Distribution, Power Systems and Accelera segments. This reporting structure is organized according to the products and markets each segment serves. We use segment EBITDA as the basis for the Chief Operating Decision Maker to evaluate the performance of each of our reportable operating segments. We believe EBITDA is a useful measure of our operating performance as it assists investors and debt holders in comparing our performance on a consistent basis without regard to financing methods, capital structure, income taxes or depreciation and amortization methods, which can vary significantly depending upon many factors. Segment amounts exclude certain expenses not specifically identifiable to segments. See NOTE 25, "OPERATING SEGMENTS," to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information and a reconciliation of our segment information to the corresponding amounts in our Consolidated Statements of Net Income.

Following is a discussion of results for each of our operating segments.

For all prior year segment results comparisons to 2021 see the Results of Operations section of our 2022 Form 10-K.

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Components Segment Results

Financial data for the Components segment was as follows:

As noted above, the descriptions of the two new businesses are as follows:

•Engine components - We design, manufacture and market turbocharger, fuel system and valvetrain technologies for light-duty, mid-range, heavy-duty and high-horsepower markets across North America, China, Europe and India.

•Software and electronics - We develop, supply and remanufacture control units, specialty sensors, power electronics, actuators and software for on-highway, off-highway and power generation applications. We primarily serve markets in the Americas, China, India and Europe.

Sales for our Components segment by business, including adjusted prior year balances for the changes noted above, were as follows:

2023 vs. 2022

Sales

Components segment sales increased $3.7 billion across all businesses. The following were the primary drivers by business:

•Axles and brakes sales increased $2.9 billion mainly due to the Meritor acquisition on August 3, 2022.

•Emission solutions sales increased $341 million principally due to stronger demand in North America and China.

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•Engine components sales increased $182 million primarily due to higher demand in China.

Segment EBITDA

Components segment EBITDA increased $494 million, mainly due to higher volumes (including sales of axles and brakes from the Meritor acquisition), favorable pricing, the absence of the Meritor acquisition and integration costs and lower freight costs, partially offset by higher compensation expenses.

Engine Segment Results

Financial data for the Engine segment was as follows:

Sales for our Engine segment by market were as follows:

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Unit shipments by engine classification (including unit shipments to Power Systems and off-highway engine units included in their respective classification) were as follows:

2023 vs. 2022

Sales

Engine segment sales increased $739 million across most markets. The following were the primary drivers by market:

•Heavy-duty truck sales increased $552 million principally due to higher demand, especially in North America (with shipments up 12 percent) and China.

•Medium-duty truck and bus sales increased $210 million mainly due to higher demand, especially in North America with medium-duty truck engine shipments up 11 percent.

The increases were partially offset by decreased off-highway sales of $47 million primarily due to lower demand in global agriculture markets.

Segment EBITDA

Engine segment EBITDA increased $95 million, primarily due to favorable pricing, partially offset by higher compensation expenses and unfavorable mix.

Distribution Segment Results

Financial data for the Distribution segment was as follows:

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Sales for our Distribution segment by region, including adjusted prior year balances for the changes noted above, were as follows:

Sales for our Distribution segment by product line were as follows:

2023 vs. 2022

Sales

Distribution segment sales increased $1.3 billion. The primary driver was an increase in North American sales of $1.1 billion due to higher demand in all product lines, especially in power generation markets due to commercial and data center demand. The increase was partially offset by unfavorable foreign currency fluctuations, primarily the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Chinese renminbi and South African rand.

Segment EBITDA

Distribution segment EBITDA increased $321 million, primarily due to increased volumes and favorable mix, partially offset by higher compensation expenses.

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Power Systems Segment Results

Financial data for the Power Systems segment was as follows:

Sales for our Power Systems segment by product line were as follows:

2023 vs. 2022

Sales

Power Systems segment sales increased $640 million across all product lines. The following were the primary drivers by product line:

•Power generation sales increased $550 million mainly due to higher demand in North America, India, Asia Pacific and the Middle East.

•Industrial sales increased $82 million principally due to higher sales of whole goods, partially offset by lower parts sales, especially in global mining markets.

Segment EBITDA

Power Systems segment EBITDA increased $240 million, primarily due to favorable pricing and higher volumes, partially offset by higher compensation expenses.

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Accelera Segment Results

Financial data for the Accelera segment was as follows:

Accelera segment sales increased 79 percent mainly due to incremental sales of central drive systems, e-axles and accessory systems since the acquisitions of Siemens' Commercial Vehicle Propulsion business and Meritor's electric powertrain business, as well as improved electrified components sales.

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2024 OUTLOOK

Our outlook reflects the following positive trends and challenges to our business that could impact our revenue and earnings potential in 2024.

Positive Trends

•We expect demand for medium-duty trucks in North America to remain strong.

•We believe market demand for trucks in India will continue to be strong.

•We expect demand within our Power Systems business to remain strong, including the power generation, mining and marine markets.

•We anticipate demand in our aftermarket business will continue to be robust, driven primarily by strong demand in our Engine business and Power Systems business. We expect to be largely through the inventory management efforts and destocking that happened throughout the industry in the second half of 2023.

•We expect demand for trucks in China to remain stable or improve in 2024.

Challenges

•We expect demand for heavy-duty trucks in North America to weaken modestly, particularly in the second half of 2024.

•Continued increases in material and labor costs, as well as other inflationary pressures, could negatively impact earnings.

•The financial implications resulting from our Agreement in Principle will negatively impact our liquidity in 2024 and will result in incremental interest expense for debt utilized in funding the civil penalty.

•We expect the ongoing separation of Atmus, our filtration business, into a stand-alone company will continue to result in incremental expenses.

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LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

Key Working Capital and Balance Sheet Data

We fund our working capital with cash from operations and short-term borrowings, including commercial paper, when necessary. Various assets and liabilities, including short-term debt, can fluctuate significantly from month to month depending on short-term liquidity needs. As a result, working capital is a prime focus of management's attention. Working capital and balance sheet measures are provided in the following table:

Cash Flows

Cash and cash equivalents were impacted as follows:

2023 vs. 2022

Net cash provided by operating activities increased $2.0 billion, primarily due to lower working capital requirements of $3.4 billion, partially offset by lower net income of $1.3 billion. The lower working capital requirements resulted in a cash inflow of $2.4 billion compared to a cash outflow of $1.0 billion in the comparable period in 2022, mainly due to increased accrued expenses (resulting from the Agreement in Principle and higher variable compensation accruals) and favorable changes in inventories and accounts receivable, partially offset by unfavorable changes in accounts payable.

Net cash used in investing activities decreased $2.5 billion, principally due to lower acquisition activity of $2.9 billion, partially offset by higher capital expenditures of $297 million.

Net cash used in financing activities increased $3.8 billion, primarily due to higher net payments of commercial paper of $3.0 billion and lower proceeds from borrowings of $1.2 billion, partially offset by lower payments on borrowings and finance lease obligations of $414 million and the absence of repurchases of common stock of $374 million.

The effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents decreased $118 million, primarily due to unfavorable fluctuations in the British pound, partially offset by the Chinese renminbi.

2022 vs. 2021

For prior year liquidity comparisons see the Liquidity and Capital Resources section of our 2022 Form 10-K.

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Sources of Liquidity

We generate significant ongoing operating cash flow. Cash provided by operations is our principal source of liquidity with $4.0 billion provided in 2023. At December 31, 2023, our sources of liquidity included:

Cash, Cash Equivalents and Marketable Securities

A significant portion of our cash flows are generated outside the U.S. We manage our worldwide cash requirements considering available funds among the many subsidiaries through which we conduct our business and the cost effectiveness with which those funds can be accessed. As a result, we do not anticipate any local liquidity restrictions to preclude us from funding our operating needs with local resources.

If we distribute our foreign cash balances to the U.S. or to other foreign subsidiaries, we could be required to accrue and pay withholding taxes, for example, if we repatriated cash from certain foreign subsidiaries whose earnings we asserted are completely or partially permanently reinvested. Foreign earnings for which we assert permanent reinvestment outside the U.S. consist primarily of earnings of our China, India, Canada (including underlying subsidiaries) and Netherlands domiciled subsidiaries. At present, we do not foresee a need to repatriate any earnings for which we assert permanent reinvestment. However, to help fund cash needs of the U.S. or other international subsidiaries as they arise, we repatriate available cash from certain foreign subsidiaries whose earnings are not permanently reinvested when it is cost effective to do so.

IPO of Atmus

On May 23, 2023, in connection with the Atmus IPO, Cummins issued approximately $350 million of commercial paper with certain lenders. On May 26, 2023, Atmus shares began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "ATMU." The IPO was completed on May 30, 2023, whereby Cummins exchanged 19.5 percent (approximately 16 million shares) of its ownership in Atmus, at $19.50 per share, to retire $299 million of the commercial paper as proceeds from the offering through a non-cash transaction. In exchange for the filtration business, Atmus also transferred to Cummins consideration of approximately $650 million. The commercial paper issued and retired through the IPO proceeds, coupled with the $650 million received, was used for the retirement of our historical debt and payment of dividends. See NOTE 23, "FORMATION OF ATMUS AND IPO," to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.

Debt Facilities and Other Sources of Liquidity

On June 5, 2023, we entered into an amended and restated 364-day credit agreement that allows us to borrow up to $2.0 billion of unsecured funds at any time prior to June 3, 2024. This credit agreement amended and restated the prior $1.5 billion 364-day credit facility that was scheduled to mature on August 16, 2023. In connection with the 364-day credit agreement, effective June 5, 2023, we terminated our $500 million incremental 364-day credit agreement dated August 17, 2022.

Our committed credit facilities provide access up to $4.0 billion, including our $2.0 billion 364-day facility that expires June 3, 2024, and our $2.0 billion five-year facility that expires on August 18, 2026. These revolving credit facilities are maintained primarily to provide backup liquidity for our commercial paper borrowings and general corporate purposes. We intend to maintain credit facilities

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at the current or higher aggregate amounts by renewing or replacing these facilities at or before expiration. The credit agreements include various financial covenants, including, among others, maintaining a net debt to capital ratio of no more than 0.65 to 1.0. At December 31, 2023, our net leverage ratio was 0.26 to 1.0. There were no outstanding borrowings under these facilities at December 31, 2023.

Our committed credit facilities provide access up to $4.0 billion of unsecured, short-term promissory notes (commercial paper) pursuant to the Board authorized commercial paper programs. These programs facilitate the private placement of unsecured short-term debt through third-party brokers. We intend to use the net proceeds from the commercial paper borrowings for acquisitions and general corporate purposes. The total combined borrowing capacity under the revolving credit facilities and commercial paper programs should not exceed $4.0 billion. At December 31, 2023, we had $1.5 billion of commercial paper outstanding, which effectively reduced our available capacity under our revolving credit facilities to $2.5 billion. See NOTE 13, "DEBT," to our Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.

In September 2023, we entered into a series of interest rate swaps with a total notional value of $500 million in order to trade a portion of the floating rate into a fixed rate on our term loan, due in 2025. The maturity date of the interest rate swaps is August 1, 2025. We designated the swaps as cash flow hedges. The gains and losses on these derivative instruments are initially recorded in other comprehensive income and reclassified into earnings as interest expense in the Consolidated Financial Statements as each interest payment is accrued.

In 2021, we entered into a series of interest rate swaps to effectively convert our $500 million senior notes, due in 2025, from a fixed rate of 0.75 percent to a floating rate equal to the three-month LIBOR plus a spread. We also entered into a series of interest rate swaps to effectively convert $765 million of our $850 million senior notes, due in 2030, from a fixed rate of 1.50 percent to a floating rate equal to the three-month LIBOR plus a spread. The fallback protocol in our derivative agreements allowed for a transition from LIBOR to Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in 2023. The swaps were designated, and are accounted for, as fair value hedges. In March 2023, we settled a portion of our 2021 interest rate swaps with a notional amount of $100 million. The $7 million loss on settlement will be amortized over the remaining term of the related debt.

In 2019, we entered into $350 million of interest rate lock agreements, and in 2020 we entered into an additional $150 million of lock agreements to reduce the variability of the cash flows of the interest payments on a total of $500 million of fixed rate debt originally forecast to be issued in 2023 to replace our senior notes at maturity. In 2022, we settled certain rate lock agreements with notional amounts totaling $150 million for $49 million in cash. In 2023, we settled all remaining rate lock agreements with notional amounts totaling $350 million for $101 million. The majority of the $150 million of gains on settlements will remain in other comprehensive income and will be amortized over the term of the debt anticipated to be issued in early 2024.

On February 15, 2023, certain of our subsidiaries entered into an amendment to the $1.0 billion credit agreement (Credit Agreement), consisting of a $400 million revolving credit facility and a $600 million term loan facility, in anticipation of the separation of our filtration business, extending the Credit Agreement termination date from March 30, 2023, to June 30, 2023. On May 26, 2023, Atmus drew down the entire $600 million term loan facility and borrowed $50 million under the revolving credit facility for use as partial consideration for the filtration business. Borrowings under the Credit Agreement mature in September 2027 (with quarterly payments on the term loan beginning in September 2024) and bear interest at varying rates, depending on the type of loan and, in some cases, the rates of designated benchmarks and the applicable borrower’s election. Generally, U.S. dollar-denominated loans bear interest at adjusted-term SOFR (which includes a 0.10 percent credit spread adjustment to term SOFR) for the applicable interest period plus a rate ranging from 1.125 percent to 1.75 percent. The Credit Agreement contains customary events of default and financial and other covenants, including maintaining a net leverage ratio of 4.0 to 1.0 and a minimum interest coverage ratio of 3.0 to 1.0. At December 31, 2023, there were no outstanding borrowings under the revolving credit facility and $600 million outstanding under the term loan facility.

As a well-known seasoned issuer, we filed an automatic shelf registration for an undetermined amount of debt and equity securities with the SEC on February 8, 2022. Under this shelf registration we may offer, from time to time, debt securities, common stock, preferred and preference stock, depositary shares, warrants, stock purchase contracts and stock purchase units.

Supply Chain Financing

We currently have supply chain financing programs with financial intermediaries, which provide certain vendors the option to be paid by financial intermediaries earlier than the due date on the applicable invoice. When a vendor utilizes the program and receives an early payment from a financial intermediary, they take a discount on the invoice. We then pay the financial intermediary the face amount of the invoice on the original due date, which generally have 60 to 90 day payment terms. The maximum amount that we could have outstanding under the program was $512 million at December 31, 2023. We do not reimburse vendors for any costs they incur for participation in the program, their participation is completely voluntary and there are no assets pledged as security or other forms of guarantees provided for the committed payment to the finance provider or intermediary. As a result, all amounts owed to the financial intermediaries are presented as accounts payable in our Consolidated Balance Sheets. Amounts due to the financial

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intermediaries reflected in accounts payable at December 31, 2023, were $199 million. See NOTE 1, "SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT ACCOUNTING POLICIES" to our Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.

Uses of Cash

Agreement in Principle

In December 2023, we announced that we reached the Agreement in Principle with the EPA, CARB, DOJ and CA AG to resolve certain regulatory civil claims regarding our emissions certification and compliance process for certain engines primarily used in pick-up truck applications in the U.S. As part of the Agreement in Principle, among other things, we agreed to pay civil penalties, complete recall requirements, undertake mitigation projects, provide extended warranties, undertake certain testing, take certain corporate compliance measures and make certain payments. Failure to comply with the terms and conditions of the Agreement in Principle will subject us to further stipulated penalties. We recorded a charge of $2.036 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023 to resolve the matters addressed by the Agreement in Principle involving approximately one million of our pick-up truck applications in the U.S. This charge was in addition to the previously announced charges of $59 million for the recalls of model years 2013 through 2018 RAM 2500 and 3500 trucks and model years 2016 through 2019 Titan trucks. Of this amount, $1.938 billion relates to payments that are expected to be made in 2024. See NOTE 2, "AGREEMENT IN PRINCIPLE," to our Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.

Dividends

Total dividends paid to common shareholders in 2023, 2022 and 2021 were $921 million, $855 million and $809 million, respectively. Declaration and payment of dividends in the future depends upon our income and liquidity position, among other factors, and is subject to declaration by the Board, who meets quarterly to consider our dividend payment. We expect to fund dividend payments with cash from operations.

In July 2023, the Board authorized an increase to our quarterly dividend of approximately 7 percent from $1.57 per share to $1.68 per share. Cash dividends per share paid to common shareholders and the Board authorized increases for the last three years were as follows:

Capital Expenditures

Capital expenditures were $1.2 billion, $916 million and $734 million in 2023, 2022 and 2021, respectively. We continue to invest in new product lines and targeted capacity expansions. We plan to spend an estimated $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion in 2024 on capital expenditures with over 65 percent of these expenditures expected to be invested in North America.

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Acquisitions

Acquisitions for the year ended December 31, 2023, were as follows:

See NOTE 24, "ACQUISITIONS," to our Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.

Current Maturities of Short and Long-Term Debt

We had $1.5 billion of commercial paper outstanding at December 31, 2023, that matures in less than one year. The maturity schedule of our existing long-term debt requires significant cash outflows in 2025 when our term loan and 0.75 percent senior notes are due. Required annual long-term debt principal payments range from $67 million to $1.8 billion over the next five years. We intend to retain our strong investment credit ratings. See NOTE 13, "DEBT," to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.

Pensions

Our global pension plans, including our unfunded and non-qualified plans, were 113 percent funded at December 31, 2023. Our U.S. defined benefit plans (qualified and non-qualified), which represented approximately 69 percent of the worldwide pension obligation, were 113 percent funded, and our U.K. defined benefit plans were 113 percent funded at December 31, 2023. The funded status of our pension plans is dependent upon a variety of variables and assumptions including return on invested assets, market interest rates and levels of voluntary contributions to the plans. In 2023, the investment gain on our U.S. pension trusts was 6.81 percent, while our U.K. pension trusts' loss was 4.37 percent. To better hedge its liabilities, our U.K. pension plan sold a substantial portion of its private markets assets at a discount, which detracted from the investment performance.

We sponsor funded and unfunded domestic and foreign defined benefit pension plans. Contributions to the U.S. and U.K. plans were as follows:

We anticipate making total contributions of approximately $67 million to our global defined benefit pension plans in 2024. Expected contributions to our defined benefit pension plans in 2024 will meet or exceed the current funding requirements.

Stock Repurchases

In December 2021, the Board authorized the acquisition of up to $2.0 billion of additional common stock upon completion of the $2.0 billion repurchase plan authorized in 2019. For the year ended December 31, 2023, we did not make any repurchases of common stock. The dollar value remaining available for future purchases under the 2019 program at December 31, 2023, was $218 million.

We intend to repurchase outstanding shares from time to time to enhance shareholder value.

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Future Uses of Cash

A summary of our contractual obligations and other commercial commitments at December 31, 2023, are as follows:

The contractual obligations reported above exclude our unrecognized tax benefits of $330 million as of December 31, 2023, which includes $170 million of current tax liabilities and $160 million of long-term deferred tax liabilities. We are not able to reasonably estimate the period in which cash outflows relating to uncertain tax contingencies could occur. See NOTE 5, "INCOME TAXES," to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.

Credit Ratings

Our rating and outlook from each of the credit rating agencies as of the date of filing are shown in the table below:

Management's Assessment of Liquidity

Our financial condition and liquidity remain strong. Our solid balance sheet and credit ratings enable us to have ready access to credit and the capital markets. We assess our liquidity in terms of our ability to generate adequate cash to fund our operating, investing and financing activities. We believe our access to capital markets, our existing cash and marketable securities, operating cash flow and revolving credit facilities provide us with the financial flexibility needed to make payments required by the Agreement in Principle, targeted capital expenditures, dividend payments, debt service obligations, projected pension obligations, common stock repurchases and fund acquisitions through 2024 and beyond. We continue to generate significant cash from operations and maintain access to our revolving credit facilities and commercial paper programs as noted above.

We anticipate making $1.938 billion of the payments required by the Agreement in Principle during 2024 through the use of our existing liquidity and access to debt markets.

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APPLICATION OF CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES

A summary of our significant accounting policies is included in NOTE 1, "SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT ACCOUNTING POLICIES," of our Consolidated Financial Statements which discusses accounting policies that we selected from acceptable alternatives.

Our Consolidated Financial Statements are prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the U.S. which often requires management to make judgments, estimates and assumptions regarding uncertainties that affect the reported amounts presented and disclosed in the financial statements. Management reviews these estimates and assumptions based on historical experience, changes in business conditions and other relevant factors they believe to be reasonable under the circumstances. In any given reporting period, our actual results may differ from the estimates and assumptions used in preparing our Consolidated Financial Statements.

Critical accounting estimates are defined as follows: the estimate requires management to make assumptions about matters that were highly uncertain at the time the estimate was made; different estimates reasonably could have been used; or if changes in the estimate are reasonably likely to occur from period to period and the change would have a material impact on our financial condition or results of operations. Our senior management has discussed the development and selection of our accounting policies, related accounting estimates and the disclosures set forth below with the Audit Committee of the Board. We believe our critical accounting estimates include estimating liabilities for warranty programs, fair value of intangible assets, assessing goodwill impairments, accounting for income taxes and pension benefits.

Warranty Programs

We estimate and record a liability for base warranty programs at the time our products are sold. Our estimates are based on historical experience and reflect management's best estimates of costs to be incurred over the warranty period. Adjustments may be required to the liability when actual or projected costs differ. Variations in component failure rates, repair costs and the point of failure within the product life cycle are key drivers that impact our periodic re-assessment of the warranty liability. Future events and circumstances related to these factors could materially change our estimates and require adjustments to our liability. New product launches require a greater use of judgment in developing estimates until historical experience becomes available. We generally estimate warranty accruals for new products using a methodology that includes the preceding product's warranty history and a multiplicative factor derived from prior product launch experience and new product assessments until sufficient new product data is available for warranty estimation. We then use a blend of actual new product experience and preceding product historical experience for several subsequent quarters and new product specific experience thereafter. Product specific experience is typically available five or six quarters after product launch, with a clear experience trend evident eight quarters after launch. As a result of the uncertainty surrounding the nature and frequency of product recall programs, the liability for such programs is recorded when management commits to a recall action or when a recall becomes probable and estimable. NOTE 14, "PRODUCT WARRANTY LIABILITY," to our Consolidated Financial Statements contains a summary of the activity in our warranty liability account for 2023, 2022 and 2021 including adjustments to pre-existing warranties.

Fair Value of Intangible Assets

We make strategic acquisitions that may have a material impact on our consolidated results of operations or financial position. We allocate the purchase price of acquired businesses to the assets acquired and liabilities assumed in the transaction at their estimated fair values. The determination of the fair value of intangible assets, which represent a significant portion of the purchase price in many of our acquisitions can be complex and requires the use of significant judgment with regard to (i) the fair value and (ii) the period and the method by which the intangible asset will be amortized. We use information available to us to make fair value determinations and engage independent valuation specialists, when necessary, to assist in the fair value determination of significant acquired intangibles. We estimate the fair value of acquisition-related intangible assets principally based on projections of cash flows that will arise from identifiable intangible assets of acquired businesses, which includes estimates of discount rates, revenue growth rates, EBITDA, royalty rates, customer attrition rates, customer renewal rates and technology obsolesce rates. The projected cash flows are discounted to determine the present value of the assets at the dates of acquisition. Although we believe the projections, assumptions and estimates made were reasonable and appropriate, these estimates require significant judgment by management, are inherently uncertain and subject to refinement. During the measurement period, which may be up to one year from the acquisition date, we may record adjustments to the assets acquired and liabilities assumed, with the corresponding offset to goodwill. Any adjustments subsequent to the measurement period are recorded to our consolidated statements of income. See NOTE 24, "ACQUISITIONS," to our Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information about our recent business combinations.

Goodwill Impairment

We are required to make certain subjective and complex judgments in assessing whether a goodwill impairment event has occurred, including assumptions and estimates used to determine the fair value of our reporting units. We test for goodwill impairment at the reporting unit level and our reporting units are the operating segments or the components of operating segments that constitute businesses for which discrete financial information is available and is regularly reviewed by management.

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We have the option to first assess qualitative factors to determine whether it is more likely than not that the fair value of a reporting unit is less than its carrying value as a basis for determining whether it is necessary to perform an annual quantitative goodwill impairment test. We have elected this option on certain reporting units. The following events and circumstances are considered when evaluating whether it is more likely than not that the fair value of a reporting unit is less than its carrying amount:

•Macroeconomic conditions, such as a deterioration in general economic conditions, fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and/or other developments in equity and credit markets;

•Industry and market considerations, such as a deterioration in the environment in which an entity operates, material loss in market share and significant declines in product pricing;

•Cost factors, such as an increase in raw materials, labor or other costs;

•Overall financial performance, such as negative or declining cash flows or a decline in actual or forecasted revenue;

•Other relevant entity-specific events, such as material changes in management or key personnel and

•Events affecting a reporting unit, such as a change in the composition or carrying amount of its net assets including acquisitions and dispositions.

The examples noted above are not all-inclusive, and we consider other relevant events and circumstances that affect the fair value of a reporting unit in determining whether to perform the quantitative goodwill impairment test.

Our goodwill recoverability assessment is based on our annual strategic planning process. This process includes an extensive review of expectations for the long-term growth of our businesses and forecasted future cash flows. In order to determine the valuation of our reporting units, we use either the market approach or the income approach using a discounted cash flow model. Our income approach method uses a discounted cash flow model in which cash flows anticipated over several periods, plus a terminal value at the end of that time horizon, are discounted to their present value using an appropriate rate of return. Our estimates are based upon our historical experience, our current knowledge from our commercial relationships and available external information about future trends.

The discounted cash flow model requires us to make projections of revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, working capital investment and fixed asset additions for the reporting units over a multi-year period. Additionally, management must estimate a weighted-average cost of capital, which reflects a market rate, for each reporting unit for use as a discount rate. The discounted cash flows are compared to the carrying value of the reporting unit and, if less than the carrying value, the difference is recorded as a goodwill impairment loss. In addition, we also perform sensitivity analyses to determine how much our forecasts can fluctuate before the fair value of a reporting unit would be lower than its carrying amount. Future changes in the judgments, assumptions and estimates that are used in our goodwill impairment testing, including discount rates or future operating results and related cash flow projections, could result in significantly different estimates of the fair values in the future. An increase in discount rates, a reduction in projected cash flows or a combination of the two could lead to a reduction in the estimated fair values, which may result in impairment charges that could materially affect our financial statements in any given year. We perform the goodwill impairment assessment as of the end of our fiscal third quarter.

While none of our reporting units recorded a goodwill impairment in 2023, we have two reporting units with material goodwill balances where the estimated fair value does not significantly exceed the carrying value, both of which are in our Components segment. Our automated transmissions reporting unit (consisting solely of our joint venture with Eaton) has an estimated fair value that exceeds its carrying amount of $1.1 billion by approximately 7 percent. Total goodwill in this reporting unit is $544 million at December 31, 2023. We valued this reporting unit using an income approach based on its expected future cash flows. The critical assumptions that factored into the valuation are the projections of revenue and gross margin of the business as well as the discount rate used to present value these future cash flows. A 50 basis point increase in the discount rate would result in a 5 percent decline in the fair value of the reporting unit. Our axles and brakes reporting unit, which consists of the legacy business acquired from Meritor in August 2022, has an estimated fair value that exceeds its carrying amount of $4.2 billion by approximately 12 percent. Total goodwill in this reporting unit is $764 million at December 31, 2023. We valued this reporting unit using an income approach based on future cash flows. The critical assumptions that factored into the valuation are the projections of revenue and gross margin of the business as well as the discount rate used to present value these future cash flows. A 50 basis point increase in the discount rate would result in a 5 percent decline in the fair value of the reporting unit.

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Accounting for Income Taxes

We determine our income tax expense using the asset and liability method. Under this method, deferred tax assets and liabilities are recognized for the future tax effects of temporary differences between the financial statement carrying amounts of existing assets and liabilities and their respective tax basis. Future tax benefits of net operating loss and credit carryforwards are also recognized as deferred tax assets. We evaluate the recoverability of our deferred tax assets each quarter by assessing the likelihood of future profitability and available tax planning strategies that could be implemented to realize our net deferred tax assets. At December 31, 2023, we recorded a net deferred tax asset of $552 million. The net deferred tax assets included $881 million for the value of net operating loss and credit carryforwards. A valuation allowance of $789 million was recorded to reduce the tax assets to the net value management believed was more likely than not to be realized. In the event our operating performance deteriorates, future assessments could conclude that a larger valuation allowance will be needed to further reduce the deferred tax assets.

In addition, we operate within multiple taxing jurisdictions and are subject to tax audits in these jurisdictions. These audits can involve complex issues, which may require an extended period of time to resolve. We accrue for the estimated additional tax and interest that may result from tax authorities disputing uncertain tax positions. We believe we made adequate provisions for income taxes for all years that are subject to audit based upon the latest information available. A more complete description of our income taxes and the future benefits of our net operating loss and credit carryforwards is disclosed in NOTE 5, "INCOME TAXES," to our Consolidated Financial Statements.

Pension Benefits

We sponsor a number of pension plans globally, with the majority of assets in the U.S. and the U.K. In the U.S. and the U.K., we have major defined benefit plans that are separately funded. We account for our pension programs in accordance with employers' accounting for defined benefit pension plans, which requires that amounts recognized in financial statements be determined using an actuarial basis. As a result, our pension benefit programs are based on a number of statistical and judgmental assumptions that attempt to anticipate future events and are used in calculating the expense and liability related to our plans each year at December 31. These assumptions include discount rates used to value liabilities, assumed rates of return on plan assets, future compensation increases, inflation, employee turnover rates, actuarial assumptions relating to retirement age, mortality rates and participant withdrawals. The actuarial assumptions we use may differ significantly from actual results due to changing economic conditions, participant life span and withdrawal rates. These differences may result in a material impact to the amount of net periodic pension cost to be recorded in our Consolidated Financial Statements in the future.

The expected long-term return on plan assets is used in calculating the net periodic pension cost. We considered several factors in developing our expected rate of return on plan assets. The long-term rate of return considers historical returns and expected returns on current and projected asset allocations. Projected returns are based primarily on broad, publicly traded passive fixed income and equity indices and forward-looking estimates of the value added by active investment management. At December 31, 2023, based upon our target asset allocations, it is anticipated that our U.S. investment policy will generate an average annual return over the 30-year projection period equal to or in excess of 7 percent, including the additional positive returns expected from active investment management.

The one-year return for our U.S. plans was a 6.81 percent gain for 2023. Our U.S. plan assets averaged annualized returns of 6.50 percent over the prior ten years and resulted in approximately $223 million of actuarial losses in accumulated other comprehensive loss (AOCL) in the same period. Based on the historical returns and forward-looking return expectations for capital markets, as plan assets continue to be de-risked, consistent with our investment policy, we believe our investment return assumption of 7.25 percent in 2024 for U.S. pension assets is reasonable and attainable.

The methodology used to determine the rate of return on pension plan assets in the U.K. was based on establishing an equity-risk premium over current long-term bond yields adjusted based on target asset allocations. At December 31, 2023, based upon our target asset allocations, it is anticipated that our U.K. investment policy will generate an average annual return over the 20-year projection period equal to or in excess of 5 percent. The one-year return for our U.K. plans was a 4.37 percent loss for 2023. We generated average annualized returns of 1.25 percent over ten years, resulting in approximately $532 million of actuarial losses in AOCL. Our strategy with respect to our investments in pension plan assets is to be invested with a long-term outlook. Based on the historical returns and forward-looking return expectations, we believe that an investment return assumption of 5.00 percent in 2024 for U.K. pension assets is reasonable and attainable.

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Our target allocation for 2024 and pension plan asset allocations, at December 31, 2023 and 2022 are as follows:

The differences between the actual return on plan assets and expected long-term return on plan assets are recognized in the asset value

used to calculate net periodic cost over five years. The table below sets forth our expected rate of return for 2024 and the expected

return assumptions used to develop our pension cost for the period 2021-2023.

Pension accounting offers various acceptable alternatives to account for the differences that eventually arise between the estimates used in the actuarial valuations and the actual results. It is acceptable to delay or immediately recognize these differences. Under the delayed recognition alternative, changes in pension obligations (including those resulting from plan amendments) and changes in the value of assets set aside to meet those obligations are not recognized in net periodic pension cost as they occur but are recognized initially in AOCL and subsequently amortized as components of net periodic pension cost systematically and gradually over future periods. In addition to this approach, we may also adopt immediate recognition of actuarial gains or losses. Immediate recognition introduces volatility in financial results. We have chosen to delay recognition and amortize actuarial differences over future periods. If we adopted the immediate recognition approach, we would record a loss of $1.1 billion ($0.8 billion after-tax) from cumulative actuarial net losses for our U.S. and U.K. pension plans.

The difference between the expected return and the actual return on plan assets is deferred from recognition in our results of operations and under certain circumstances, such as when the difference exceeds 10 percent of the greater of the market value of plan assets or the projected benefit obligation, the difference is amortized over future years of service. This is also true of changes to actuarial assumptions. Under the delayed recognition alternative, the actuarial gains and losses are recognized and recorded in AOCL. As our losses related to the U.S. and U.K. pension plans exceed 10 percent of their respective plan assets, the excess is amortized over the average remaining service lives of participating employees. Net actuarial losses decreased our shareholders' equity by $329 million after-tax in 2023. The loss is primarily due to unfavorable asset returns, partially offset by higher discount rates.

The table below sets forth the net periodic pension cost for the years ended December 31 and our expected cost for 2024.

We expect 2024 net periodic pension cost to increase compared to 2023, primarily due to unfavorable asset returns in the U.K., lower discount rates in the U.S. and U.K. and increased headcount from recent acquisitions, partially offset by a higher expected rate of return on assets in the U.S. The decrease in net periodic pension cost in 2023 compared to 2022 was primarily due to the full year benefit of the Meritor pension plans added during the acquisition and a higher estimated return on assets in the U.S. and U.K. The decrease in net periodic pension cost in 2022 compared to 2021 was due to higher discount rates in the U.S. and U.K. and favorable actuarial experience in the U.S., partially offset by a lower expected rate of return in the U.K.

The weighted-average discount rates used to develop our net periodic pension cost are set forth in the table below.

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The discount rate enables us to state expected future cash payments for benefits as a present value on the measurement date. The guidelines for setting this rate suggest the use of a high-quality corporate bond rate. We used bond information provided by Moody's Investor Services, Inc. and Standard & Poor's Rating Services. All bonds used to develop our hypothetical portfolio in the U.S. and U.K. were deemed high-quality, non-callable bonds (Aa or better) at December 31, 2023, by at least one of the bond rating agencies.

Our model called for projected payments until near extinction for the U.S. and the U.K. For both countries, our model matches the present value of the plan's projected benefit payments to the market value of the theoretical settlement bond portfolio. A single equivalent discount rate is determined to align the present value of the required cash flow with the value of the bond portfolio. The resulting discount rate is reflective of both the current interest rate environment and the plan's distinct liability characteristics.

The table below sets forth the estimated impact on our 2024 net periodic pension cost relative to a change in the discount rate and a change in the expected rate of return on plan assets.

The above sensitivities reflect the impact of changing one assumption at a time. A higher discount rate decreases the plan obligations and decreases our net periodic pension cost. A lower discount rate increases the plan obligations and increases our net periodic pension cost. It should be noted that economic factors and conditions often affect multiple assumptions simultaneously and the effects of changes in key assumptions are not necessarily linear. NOTE 11, "PENSIONS AND OTHER POSTRETIREMENT BENEFITS," to our Consolidated Financial Statements provides a summary of our pension benefit plan activity, the funded status of our plans and the amounts recognized in our Consolidated Financial Statements.

RECENTLY ADOPTED AND RECENTLY ISSUED ACCOUNTING PRONOUNCEMENTS

See NOTE 1, "SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT ACCOUNTING POLICIES" to our Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.