CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) FY 2024 MD&A

ITEM 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

You should read the following discussion together with our consolidated financial statements and related notes included in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” This section of the Form 10-K generally discusses 2024 items and year-to-year comparisons of 2024 to 2023. Discussions of 2022 items and year-to-year comparisons of 2023 and 2022 that are not included in this Form 10-K can be found in “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Part II, Item 7 on our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023. The discussion contains forward-looking statements involving risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our results to differ materially from expectations. See “Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements.” Factors that might cause such differences include those described in Item 1A. “Risk Factors”, 7A. "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure About Market Risk", and elsewhere in this report.

Overview

As of December 31, 2024, we owned 3,644 Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States, and 82 international Chipotle restaurants. Additionally, we had three international licensed restaurants. We manage our U.S. operations based on ten regions and aggregate our operations to one reportable segment.

Throughout “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” we commonly discuss the following key operating metrics which we believe will drive our financial results and long-term growth model. We believe these metrics are useful to investors because management uses these metrics to assess the growth of our business and the effectiveness of our marketing and operational strategies:

•Comparable restaurant sales

•Food, beverage, and packaging as a percentage of total revenue

•Labor as a percentage of total revenue

•Occupancy as a percentage of total revenue

•Other operating costs as a percentage of total revenue

•New restaurant openings

2024 Financial Highlights, year-over-year:

•Total revenue increased 14.6% to $11.3 billion

•Comparable restaurant sales increased 7.4%

•Diluted earnings per share was $1.11, a 24.7% increase from $0.89

Sales Trends. Comparable restaurant sales increased 7.4% for the year ended December 31, 2024. The increase is attributable to higher transactions of 5.3% and a 2.1% increase in average check. Comparable restaurant sales represent the change in period-over-period total revenue for restaurants in operation for at least 13 full calendar months. Digital sales represented 35.1% of total food and beverage revenue. For 2025, management is anticipating comparable restaurant sales growth in the low to mid-single digit range.

Restaurant Development. During the year ended December 31, 2024, we opened 304 restaurants, which included 257 restaurants with a Chipotlane. We expect to open approximately 315 to 345 company-owned restaurants in 2025. We expect that at least 80% of our new company-owned restaurants will include a Chipotlane.

Licensing. During the year ended December 31, 2024, three licensed restaurants were opened in the Middle East.

Cultivate Next Fund. Our Cultivate Next Fund is a venture formed to make early-stage investments into strategically aligned companies that further our purpose to Cultivate a Better World. The Fund is authorized to invest up to $100.0 million, which is financed almost entirely by Chipotle. As of December 31, 2024, we have made $63.0 million in investments through this Fund.

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Restaurant Activity

The following table details company-owned restaurant unit data for the years indicated.

The following table details licensed restaurant unit data for the years indicated.

Results of Operations

Our results of operations as a percentage of total revenue and period-over-period change are discussed in the following section.

Revenue

(1)Average restaurant sales refers to the average trailing 12-month food and beverage revenue for restaurants in operation for at least 12 full calendar months.

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The following is a summary of the change in restaurant sales for the period indicated:

Food, Beverage and Packaging Costs

Food, beverage and packaging costs increased 0.3% as a percentage of total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024 compared to the year ended December 31, 2023. The increase was due to higher usage of ingredients as we focused on ensuring consistent and generous portions, inflation across several ingredient costs, primarily avocados, and a protein mix shift from the Smoked Brisket limited time offering and a Braised Beef Barbacoa marketing initiative. This increase was partially offset by a 1.0% benefit from menu price increases.

Labor Costs

Labor costs remained flat as a percentage of total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024 compared to the year ended December 31, 2023. The 1.1% benefit from sales leverage was mostly offset by 0.9% due to restaurant wage inflation, of which 0.4% was due to minimum wage increases for our restaurants in California.

Occupancy Costs

Occupancy costs decreased 0.1% as a percentage of total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024 compared to the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily due to 0.3% of sales leverage partially offset by 0.2% of increased occupancy expense, of which 0.1% was associated with existing restaurants and 0.1% was associated with new restaurants.

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Other Operating Costs

Other operating costs decreased 0.6% as a percentage of total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024 compared to the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily due to 0.5% of sales leverage and 0.2% of lower delivery expenses.

General and Administrative Expenses

The following is a summary of the change in general and administrative expenses for the period indicated:

Impairment, Closure Costs, and Asset Disposals

Impairment, closure costs, and asset disposals decreased in dollar terms for the year ended December 31, 2024 compared to the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily due to a gain on the sale of corporate equipment and higher charges related to the replacement of certain leasehold improvements in the comparable period.

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Interest and Other Income, Net

Interest and other income, net increased in dollar terms for the year ended December 31, 2024 compared to the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily due to increased interest income from higher investment balances in U.S. Treasury securities, money market funds and time deposits.

Provision for Income Taxes

The effective income tax rate decreased 0.5% for the year ended December 31, 2024 compared to the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily due to lower nondeductible expenses of 0.6% and income tax reserves of 0.4%. These decreases were partially offset by a 0.6% reduction in tax benefits related to option exercise and equity vesting.

Quarterly Financial Data/Seasonality

Seasonal factors cause our profitability to fluctuate from quarter to quarter. Historically, our average daily restaurant sales and net income are lower in the first and fourth quarters due, in part, to the holiday season and because fewer people eat out during periods of inclement weather (the winter months) than during periods of mild or warm weather (the spring, summer and fall months). Other factors also have a seasonal effect on our results. For example, restaurants located near colleges and universities generally do more business during the academic year. Seasonal factors, however, might be moderated or outweighed by other factors that may influence our quarterly results, such as unexpected publicity impacting our business in a positive or negative way, disease outbreak, epidemic or endemic, the impact of inflation on consumer spending, fluctuations in food or packaging costs, or the timing of menu price increases or promotional activities and other marketing initiatives. The number of trading days in a quarter can also affect our results, although, on an overall annual basis, changes in trading days do not have a significant impact.

Our quarterly results are also affected by other factors such as the amount and timing of non-cash stock-based compensation expense and related tax rate impacts, litigation, settlement costs and related legal expenses, impairment charges and non-operating costs, timing of marketing or promotional expenses, the number and timing of new restaurants opened in a quarter, and closure of restaurants. New restaurants typically have higher operating costs following opening because of the expenses associated with their opening and operating inefficiencies in the months immediately following opening. Accordingly, results for a particular quarter are not necessarily indicative of results to be expected for any other quarter or for any year.

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Liquidity and Capital Resources

Cash and Investments

As of December 31, 2024, we had a cash and marketable investments balance of $2.2 billion, non-marketable investments of $85.2 million, and $29.8 million of restricted cash. After funding the current operations in our restaurants and support centers, the first planned use of our cash flow from operations is to provide capital for the continued investment in new restaurant construction. In addition to continuing to invest in our restaurant expansion, we expect to utilize cash flow from operations to: repurchase additional shares of our common stock subject to market conditions; invest in, maintain, and refurbish our existing restaurants; and for general corporate purposes. As of December 31, 2024, $1.0 billion remained available for repurchases of shares of our common stock, which includes the $300.0 million additional authorization approved by our Board of Directors on December 17, 2024. Under the remaining repurchase authorizations, shares may be purchased from time to time in open market transactions, subject to market conditions.

Borrowing Capacity

As of December 31, 2024, we had $500.0 million of undrawn borrowing capacity under a line of credit facility.

Use of Cash

We believe that cash from operations, together with our cash and investment balances, will be sufficient to meet ongoing capital expenditures, working capital requirements and other cash needs for the foreseeable future. Assuming no significant declines in comparable restaurant sales, we expect we will generate positive cash flow for the foreseeable future.

We have not required significant working capital because guests generally pay using cash or credit and debit cards and because our operations do not require significant receivables, nor do they require significant inventories due, in part, to our use of various fresh ingredients. In addition, we generally have the right to pay for the purchase of food, beverages and supplies sometime after the receipt of those items, generally within ten days, thereby reducing the need for incremental working capital to support our growth.

Our total capital expenditures for 2024 were $593.6 million. In 2024, we spent on average about $1.5 million in development and construction costs per new restaurant, or about $1.3 million net of landlord reimbursements of $0.2 million. In 2025, we expect to incur about $683.7 million in total capital expenditures. We expect approximately $502.7 million in capital expenditures related to our construction of new restaurants, before any reductions for landlord reimbursements. We expect the average investment cost for new restaurants opening in 2025 will be slightly higher than the average investment costs for those opened in 2024. We expect approximately $149.0 million in capital expenditures related to investments in existing restaurants including remodeling and similar improvements, new equipment and hardware, and technology to optimize efficiencies. Finally, we expect a portion of our incurred capital expenditures to be for additional corporate initiatives including investments in technology to boost innovation, enhance the guest experience, and improve operations.

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The following table summarizes current and long-term material cash requirements as of December 31, 2024, which we expect to fund primarily with operating cash flows:

(1)See Note 9. “Leases” of our consolidated financial statements included in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” This includes commitments related to reasonably certain renewal periods for leases that have commenced and includes legally binding lease payments for leases signed but not yet commenced.

(2)Purchase obligations include agreements to purchase goods or services that are enforceable and legally binding on us and that specify all significant terms. We have excluded agreements that are cancellable without penalty. The majority of our purchase obligations relate to food, beverage and packaging, capital projects, information technology, marketing initiatives and corporate sponsorships, and other miscellaneous items.

The above table does not include income tax liabilities for uncertain tax positions for which we are not able to make a reasonably reliable estimate of the amount and period of related future payments. Additionally, we have excluded our estimated loss contingencies, due to uncertainty regarding the timing and amount of payment. See Note 11. “Commitments and Contingencies” of our consolidated financial statements included in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.”

Cash Flows

Cash provided by operating activities was $2.1 billion for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $1.8 billion for the year ended December 31, 2023. The increase was primarily due to higher net earnings and, to a lesser extent, net cash changes in operating assets and liabilities.

Cash used in investing activities was $837.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $946.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2023. The change was primarily associated with a $121.2 million decrease in investment purchases net of investment maturities. This was partially offset by increased capital expenditures of $32.9 million primarily related to costs associated with new restaurant development.

Cash used in financing activities was $1.1 billion for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $660.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2023. The change was primarily due to increased repurchases of common stock of $409.2 million.

Critical Accounting Estimates

We describe our significant accounting policies in Note 1. “Description of Business and Summary of Significant Accounting Policies” of our consolidated financial statements included in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” Critical accounting estimates are those that we believe are both significant and that require us to make difficult, subjective or complex judgments, often because we need to estimate the effect of inherently uncertain matters. We base our estimates and judgments on historical experiences and various other factors that we believe to be appropriate under the circumstances. Actual results may differ from these estimates, and we might obtain different estimates if we used different assumptions or factors.

Leases

The majority of our operating leases consist of restaurant locations and office space. We determine if a contract contains a lease at inception. Our leases generally have remaining terms of 1-20 years and most include options to extend the leases for additional 5-year periods. Generally, the lease term is the minimum of the noncancelable period of the lease or the lease term inclusive of reasonably certain renewal periods up to a term of 20 years. If the estimate of our reasonably certain lease term was changed, our depreciation and rent expense could differ materially.

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Operating lease assets and liabilities are recognized at the lease commencement date, which is the date we control the use of the property. Operating lease liabilities represent the present value of lease payments not yet paid. We made the policy election to combine lease and non-lease components. We consider fixed common area maintenance (“CAM”) part of our fixed future lease payments; therefore, fixed CAM is also included in our operating lease liability. Operating lease assets represent our right to use an underlying asset and are based upon the operating lease liabilities adjusted for prepayments, initial direct costs, lease incentives, and impairment of operating lease assets. To determine the present value of lease payments not yet paid, we estimate incremental borrowing rates corresponding to the reasonably certain lease term. As we have no outstanding debt nor committed credit facilities, secured or otherwise, we estimate this rate based on prevailing financial market conditions, comparable company and credit analysis, and management judgment. If the estimate of our incremental borrowing rate was changed, our operating lease assets and liabilities could differ materially.

Impairment of Long-Lived Assets

Long-lived assets are reviewed for impairment whenever events or changes in circumstances indicate that the carrying amount of an asset may not be recoverable. Long-lived assets are grouped at the lowest level for which identifiable cash flows are largely independent of the cash flows of other assets and liabilities. For restaurant assets, we test impairment at the individual restaurant asset group level, which includes leasehold improvements, property and equipment and operating lease assets.

The fair value measurement for asset impairment is generally based on Level 3 inputs. We first compare the carrying value of the asset (or asset group, referred interchangeably throughout as asset) to the asset’s estimated future undiscounted cash flows. If the estimated undiscounted future cash flows are less than the carrying value of the asset, we determine if we have an impairment loss by comparing the carrying value of the asset to the asset's estimated fair value. The estimated fair value of the asset is generally determined using the income approach to measure the fair value, which is based on the present value of estimated future cash flows. Key inputs to the income approach for restaurant assets include the discount rate, projected revenue and expenses, and sublease income if we are closing the restaurant. In certain cases, management uses other market information, when available, to estimate the fair value of an asset. The impairment charges represent the excess of each asset’s carrying amount over its estimated fair value and are allocated among the long-lived asset or assets of the group.

Our estimates of future revenues and expenses are highly subjective judgments based on internal projections and knowledge of our operations, historical performance, and trends in sales and restaurant operating costs, and can be significantly impacted by changes in our business or economic conditions. The determination of asset fair value is also subject to significant judgment and utilizes valuation techniques including discounting estimated future cash flows and market-based analyses to determine fair value. If our estimates or underlying assumptions, including discount rate and sublease income change in the future, our operating results may be materially impacted.

Stock-based Compensation

We recognize compensation expense for equity awards over the requisite service period based on the award’s fair value. Under our stock incentive plans, we issue stock-only stock appreciation rights ("SOSARs"), restricted stock units ("RSUs"), and performance stock units ("PSUs"). We use the Black-Scholes valuation model to determine the fair value of our SOSARs, and we use the Monte Carlo simulation model to determine the fair value of PSUs that contain market conditions. Both of these models require assumptions to be made regarding our stock price volatility, the expected life of the award and expected dividend rates. The volatility and the expected life assumptions are based on our historical data. Similarly, the compensation expense of performance share awards is based in part on the estimated probability of achieving levels of performance associated with particular levels of payout for performance shares. We determine the probability of achievement of future levels of performance by comparing the relevant performance level with our internal estimates of future performance. Those estimates are based on a number of assumptions, including but not limited to growth in restaurant cash flow dollars, average restaurant level operating margin, and growth in new restaurant openings, and different assumptions may have resulted in different conclusions regarding the probability of achieving future levels of performance relevant to the payout levels for the awards. If we change our estimates of stock price volatility or expected lives of our SOSARs, or if we change our assumptions regarding the probability of achieving future levels of performance with respect to performance share awards, our stock-based compensation expense and results of operations may be materially impacted.

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Income Taxes

Our provision for income taxes, deferred tax assets and liabilities and any related valuation allowance requires the use of estimates based on our management’s interpretation and application of complex tax laws and accounting guidance. The majority of our income tax liability is incurred in the U.S. We establish reserves for uncertain tax positions for material, known tax exposures relating to deductions, transactions and other matters involving some uncertainty as to the measurement and recognition of the item. We may adjust these reserves when our judgment changes as a result of the evaluation of new information not previously available and will be reflected in the period in which the new information is available, or due to the expiration of any applicable statute of limitations. While we believe that our reserves are adequate, issues raised by a tax authority may be resolved at an amount different than the related reserve and could materially increase or decrease our income tax provision in future periods.