CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC (CAKE) FY 2023 MD&A
This page reproduces the company's own Item 7 MD&A text from the linked SEC filing. It is filer text, not grepcent analysis, scoring, or investment advice.
ITEM 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
This Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations ("MD&A"), which contains forward-looking statements, should be read in conjunction with our audited consolidated financial statements and related notes in Part IV, Item 15 of this report, the “Risk Factors” included in Part I, Item 1A of this report and the cautionary statements included throughout this report. The inclusion of supplementary analytical and related information herein may require us to make estimates and assumptions to enable us to fairly present, in all material respects, our analysis of trends and expectations with respect to our results of operations and financial position.
We utilize a 52/53-week fiscal year ending on the Tuesday closest to December 31 for financial reporting purposes. Fiscal year 2022 consisted of 53 weeks, while fiscal year 2021 consisted of 52 weeks. Fiscal year 2023 will consist of 52 weeks. The following MD&A includes a discussion comparing our results in fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2021. For a discussion comparing our results from fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2020, refer to “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Part II, Item 7 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 28, 2021, filed with the SEC on February 22, 2022.
COVID-19 Pandemic , Geopolitical and Other Macroeconomic Impacts to our Operating Environment
We have experienced significant disruptions to our business as federal, state and local restrictions have fluctuated over time to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 virus. While most of our restaurants operated with no restrictions on indoor dining during fiscal years 2021 and 2022, our revenues were negatively impacted during periods of accelerating case counts during which we incurred increased restaurant staff absenteeism and temporary shifts in consumer behavior, such as changes in customer traffic or the mix between on-premise and off-premise channels. We have incurred and may continue to incur additional costs to address government regulations and the safety of our staff members and customers.
In addition, we experienced labor shortfalls relative to our sales levels in certain parts of our workforce and/or geographies as we reopened our dining rooms after the lifting of mandatory social-distancing regulations related to the COVID-19 pandemic. During fiscal 2021, we also began to experience certain supply shortages and transportation delays largely attributable to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. These shortages continued in fiscal 2022 and were exacerbated by geopolitical unrest. The aggregate impact of these and other geopolitical and macroeconomic factors contributed to significantly increased commodity and wage inflation and other increased costs. We have also encountered delays in opening new restaurants due to supply chain challenges, as well as to longer lead times in obtaining licenses and permits and in the timeline required to complete the overall leasing process with landlords.
The ongoing effects of COVID-19 and its variants, along with other geopolitical and macroeconomic events could lead to further government mandates, including but not limited to capacity restrictions, shifts in consumer behavior, wage inflation, staffing challenges, product and services cost inflation, disruptions in the supply chain and delay in new restaurant openings. If these factors significantly impact our cash flow in the future, we may again implement mitigation actions such as suspending share repurchases, not declaring future dividends, increasing borrowings under our credit facility or modifying our operating strategies. Any of these measures may have an adverse impact on our business and materially adversely affect our financial performance.
General
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is a leader in experiential dining. We are culinary forward and relentlessly focused on hospitality. We currently own and operate 318 restaurants throughout the United States and Canada under brands including The Cheesecake Factory® (210 locations), North Italia® (33 locations), Flower Child® (30 locations) and a collection of other FRC brands (35 locations). Internationally, 30 The Cheesecake Factory® restaurants operate under licensing agreements. Our bakery division operates two facilities that produce quality cheesecakes and other baked products for our restaurants, international licensees and third-party bakery customers.
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Overview
Our strategy is driven by our commitment to customer satisfaction and is focused primarily on menu innovation, service and operational execution to continue to differentiate ourselves from other restaurant concepts, as well as to drive competitively strong performance that is sustainable. Financially, we are focused on prudently managing expenses at our restaurants, bakery facilities and corporate support center, and leveraging our size to make the best use of our purchasing power.
Investing in new Company-owned restaurant development is our top long-term capital allocation priority, with a focus on opening our concepts in premier locations within both new and existing markets. We plan to continue expanding The Cheesecake Factory and North Italia concepts, and in addition, our FRC subsidiary serves as an incubation engine, creating additional concepts for potential future growth. For The Cheesecake Factory concept, we target an average cash-on-cash return on investment of approximately 20% to 25% at the unit level, calculated by dividing restaurant-level profit (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization and preopening costs) by our cash investment. We target an average cash-on-cash return on investment of approximately 35% for the North Italia concept and 25% to 30% for the FRC concepts. Returns are affected by the cost to build restaurants, the level of revenues that each restaurant can deliver and our ability to maximize the profitability of restaurants. Investing in new restaurant development that meets our return on investment criteria is expected to support achieving mid-teens Company-level return on invested capital.
Our overall revenue growth is primarily driven by revenues from new restaurant openings and increases in comparable restaurant sales.
For The Cheesecake Factory concept, our strategy is to increase comparable restaurant sales by growing average check and maintaining customer traffic through (1) continuing to offer innovative, high quality menu items that offer customers a wide range of options in terms of flavor, price and value, (2) focusing on service and hospitality with the goal of delivering an exceptional customer experience and (3) continuing to provide our customers with convenient options for off-premise dining, as we believe there is opportunity for a longer-term elevation of our off-premise mix compared to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels. We are continuing our efforts on a number of initiatives, including menu innovation, a greater focus on increasing customer throughput in our restaurants, leveraging our gift card program, working with a third party to provide delivery services for our restaurants, increasing customer awareness of our online ordering capabilities, augmenting our marketing programs, enhancing our training programs and leveraging our customer satisfaction measurement platform.
Average check variations are driven by menu price increases and/or changes in menu mix. We generally update The Cheesecake Factory menus twice each year, and our philosophy is to use price increases to help offset key operating cost increases in a manner that balances supporting both our margin objectives and customer traffic levels. In prior years, we have targeted menu price increases of approximately 2% to 3% annually, utilizing a market-based strategy to help mitigate cost pressure in higher-wage geographies. Due to the inflationary cost pressures we are experiencing, we implemented menu price increases above our historical levels in the first and third quarters of fiscal 2022 and also implemented an incremental price increase in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022 to support our longer-term restaurant-level margin objectives. Future near-term pricing actions are likely to be at levels above historical norms to keep pace with any significant cost increases. In addition, on a regular basis, we carefully consider opportunities to adjust our menu offerings or ingredients to help manage product availability and cost.
Margins are subject to fluctuations in commodity costs, labor, restaurant-level occupancy expenses, general and administrative (“G&A”) expenses and preopening expenses. Our objective is to recapture our pre-COVID-19 pandemic margins and longer-term to drive margin expansion, by leveraging incremental sales to increase restaurant-level margins at The Cheesecake Factory concept, leveraging our bakery operations, international and consumer packaged goods royalty revenue streams and G&A expense over time, and optimizing our restaurant portfolio.
We plan to employ a balanced capital allocation strategy, comprised of: investing in new restaurants that are expected to meet our targeted returns, repaying borrowings under our Revolver Facility and returning capital to shareholders through our dividend and share repurchase programs, the latter of which offsets dilution from our equity compensation program and supports our earnings per share growth. Future decisions to pay or to increase or decrease dividends or to repurchase shares are at the discretion of the Board and will be dependent on a number of factors, including limitations pursuant to the terms and conditions of the Loan Agreement and applicable law.
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Longer-term, we believe our domestic revenue growth (comprised of our targeted annual unit growth of 7%, in aggregate across concepts, and comparable sales growth), combined with margin expansion, planned debt repayments and an anticipated capital return program will support our long-term financial objective of 13% to 14% total return to shareholders, on average. We define our total return as earnings per share growth plus our dividend yield. (See Item 1A — Risk Factors — “Our stock price could be adversely affected if our performance falls short of our financial guidance and/or market expectations.”)
Results of Operations
The following table presents, for the periods indicated, information from our consolidated statements of income/(loss) expressed as percentages of revenues.
| | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | 2022 | 2021 | ||
| Revenues | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |
| | | | | | |
| Costs and expenses: | | | |||
| Food and beverage costs | | 24.6 | 22.3 | ||
| Labor expenses | | 36.7 | 36.6 | ||
| Other operating costs and expenses | | 26.7 | 27.0 | ||
| General and administrative expenses | | 6.2 | 6.4 | ||
| Depreciation and amortization expenses | | 2.8 | 3.1 | ||
| Impairment of assets and lease termination expenses | | 1.0 | 0.6 | ||
| Acquisition-related contingent consideration, compensation and amortization expense | | 0.4 | | 0.7 | |
| Preopening costs | | 0.4 | 0.5 | ||
| Total costs and expenses | | 98.8 | 97.2 | ||
| | | | | | |
| Income/(loss) from operations | | 1.2 | 2.8 | ||
| Interest and other expense, net | | (0.2) | (0.4) | ||
| Income/(loss) before income taxes | | 1.0 | 2.4 | ||
| Income tax benefit | | (0.3) | (0.1) | ||
| Net income/(loss) | | 1.3 | 2.5 | ||
| Dividends on Series A preferred stock | | — | | (0.6) | |
| Undistributed earnings allocated to Series A preferred stock | | — | | (0.2) | |
| Net income/(loss) available to common stockholders | | 1.3 | % | 1.7 | % |
Fiscal 2022 Compared to Fiscal 2021
Revenues
Revenues increased 12.8% to $3,303.2 million for fiscal 2022, including approximately $78.4 million contributed by the 53rd week, compared to $2,927.5 million for fiscal 2021, primarily due to an increase in comparable restaurant sales, reflecting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in fiscal 2021, as well as additional revenue related to new restaurant openings.
The Cheesecake Factory comparable sales increased by 7.0%, or $162.5 million, from fiscal 2021 and increased 10.6% from fiscal 2019. The increase from fiscal 2021 was primarily driven by increased customer traffic of 6.8% primarily due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the prior year, and an increase in average check of 0.2% (based on an increase of 5.9% in menu pricing, partially offset by a 5.7% negative change in mix). Sales through the off-premise channel comprised approximately 25% of our restaurant sales during fiscal 2022 as compared to 32% in fiscal 2021. However, off-premise sales mix remains elevated versus the pre-pandemic level of 16% during fiscal 2019, even as customers continue to return to on-premise dining. We account for each off-premise order as one customer for traffic measurement purposes. Therefore, average check is generally higher for off-premise orders as most of these orders are for more than one customer. In turn, the lower mix of sales in the off-premise channel during fiscal 2022 compared to fiscal 2021 comprised approximately 2% of the negative change in mix with a positive correlative impact to traffic. We implemented effective menu price increases of approximately 3.25%, 4.25% and 2.8% in the first, third and fourth quarters of fiscal 2022, respectively. The Cheesecake Factory average sales per restaurant operating week increased 7.3% to $228,741 in fiscal 2022 from $213,165 in fiscal 2021. Total operating weeks at The Cheesecake Factory restaurants increased 2.7% to 11,052 in fiscal 2022 compared to 10,758 in the comparable prior year period. Excluding the impact of the 53rd week in fiscal 2022, total operating weeks increased 0.8% to 10,841.
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North Italia comparable sales increased approximately 15% from fiscal 2021 and increased approximately 22% compared to fiscal 2019. The increase from fiscal 2021 was primarily driven by increased customer traffic of 11% primarily due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the prior year, and an increase in average check of 4.0% (based on an increase of 5.5% in menu pricing, partially offset by a 1.5% negative impact from mix). North Italia average sales per restaurant operating week increased 12.1% to $142,532 in fiscal 2022 from $127,146 in fiscal 2021. Total operating weeks at North Italia increased 18.6% to 1,604 in fiscal 2022 compared to 1,352 in the prior year. Excluding the impact of the 53rd week in fiscal 2022, total operating weeks increased 16.2% to 1,571.
Restaurants become eligible to enter the comparable sales base in their 19th month of operation. At January 3, 2023, there were four The Cheesecake Factory restaurants and eight North Italia restaurants not yet in the comparable sales base. International licensed locations and restaurants that are no longer in operation, including those which we have relocated, are excluded from comparable sales calculations.
Food and Beverage Costs
Food and beverage costs consist of raw materials and ingredients used in the food and beverage products sold in our restaurants and to our third-party bakery customers. As a percentage of revenues, food and beverage costs were 24.6% for fiscal 2022 compared to 22.3% for fiscal 2021, primarily due to inflation across most categories in excess of menu price increases (1.9%). Beginning in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022, we retitled this income statement line item from “Cost of Sales” to “Food and Beverage Costs.” This is a title change only, and there is no difference in the classification of items within this category of costs.
The Cheesecake Factory restaurant menus are among the most diversified in the foodservice industry and, accordingly, are not overly dependent on a few select commodities. Changes in costs for one commodity sometimes can be offset by cost changes in other commodity categories. The principal commodity categories for our restaurants include general grocery items, dairy, produce, seafood, poultry, meat and bread. (See the discussion of our contracting activities in Part II, Item 7A — “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.”)
For new restaurants, food and beverage costs are typically higher for a period of time after opening until our management team becomes more accustomed to predicting, managing and servicing the sales volumes at these restaurants.
Labor Expenses
As a percentage of revenues, labor expenses, which include restaurant-level labor costs and bakery production labor, including associated fringe benefits, were 36.7% and 36.6% in fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2021, respectively. This increase was primarily due to wage rate inflation in excess of menu price increases (0.8%), offset by a decrease in group medical insurance costs due to lower claim activity (0.8%) in fiscal 2022.
For new restaurants, labor expenses are typically higher for a period of time after opening while our management team becomes more accustomed to predicting and managing the sales volumes at the new restaurants.
Other Operating Costs and Expenses
Other operating costs and expenses consist of all other restaurant-level operating costs, the major components of which are occupancy expenses (rent, common area expenses, insurance, licenses, taxes and utilities), dining room and to-go supplies, repairs and maintenance, janitorial expenses, credit card processing fees, marketing including delivery commissions, and incentive compensation, as well as bakery production overhead. As a percentage of revenues, other operating costs and expenses were 26.7% and 27.0% in fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2021, respectively. This variance was primarily driven by sales leverage within occupancy and building costs (0.2%) and increased restaurant-level incentive compensation expense (0.2%).
G&A Expenses
G&A expenses consist of the restaurant management recruiting and training program, restaurant field supervision, corporate support and bakery administrative organizations, as well as gift card commissions to third-party distributors. As a percentage of revenues, G&A expenses were 6.2% and 6.4% for fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2021, respectively. This variance was primarily driven by lower corporate incentive compensation expense (0.2%).
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Depreciation and Amortization Expenses
As a percentage of revenues, depreciation and amortization expenses were 2.8% in fiscal 2022 compared to 3.1% in fiscal 2021 primarily due to sales leverage.
Impairment of Assets and Lease Termination Expenses
During fiscal 2022, we recorded impairment of assets and lease terminations expense of $31.4 million primarily related to the impairment of long-lived assets for three The Cheesecake Factory, one Other FRC and three Other restaurants that are primarily located in areas which have not fully recovered from the pandemic.
During fiscal 2021, we recorded impairment of assets and lease terminations expense of $18.1 million primarily related to the impairment of long-lived assets for three The Cheesecake Factory and two Other restaurants.
See Notes 1 and 6 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Part 1V, Item 15 of this report for further discussion of our long-lived and intangible assets.
Acquisition-Related Contingent Consideration, Compensation and Amortization Expense/(Benefit)
We recorded a $13.4 million and $19.5 million of expense during fiscal 2022 and 2021, respectively, of acquisition-related contingent consideration, compensation and amortization. In fiscal 2022, the fair value of the contingent consideration and compensation liability increased by $4.7 million due to a $8.3 million increase in the fair value primarily stemming from a change in the volatility factors, as well as an increase in fiscal 2022 revenues and estimated future revenues utilized in the calculation and amortization, partially offset by a payment of $7.2 million per the FRC acquisition agreement. In fiscal 2021, we recorded a $15.3 million increase in the contingent consideration and compensation liability due to the impact of an amendment to the FRC acquisition agreement that, among other things, extended the measurement period through fiscal 2026, as well as to an increase in fiscal 2021 revenues and estimated future revenues utilized in the fair value calculation.
Preopening Costs
Preopening costs were $16.8 million for fiscal 2022 compared to $13.7 million for fiscal 2021. We opened 13 restaurants in fiscal 2022 comprised of three The Cheesecake Factory, four North Italia, three Other FRC and three Other locations compared to 14 restaurants in fiscal 2021 comprised of two The Cheesecake Factory, six North Italia, four Other FRC and two Other locations. Restaurant-level preopening costs include all costs to relocate and compensate restaurant management staff members during the preopening period, costs to recruit and train hourly restaurant staff members, and wages, travel and lodging costs for our opening training team and other support staff members. Also included in preopening costs are expenses for maintaining a roster of trained managers for pending openings, the associated temporary housing and other costs necessary to relocate managers in alignment with future restaurant opening and operating needs. Preopening costs can fluctuate significantly from period to period based on the number, mix and timing of restaurant openings and the specific preopening costs incurred for each restaurant. The increase in preopening cost from fiscal 2021 primarily relates to a higher number of managers in reserve for pending openings, partially offset by decreased number of openings.
Interest and Other Expense, Net
Interest and other expense, net was $6.0 million in fiscal 2022 compared to $10.7 million in fiscal 2021. This decrease was primarily due to higher interest expense in the prior year ($3.5 million), mainly related to our interest rate swap, which was terminated in June 2021.
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Income Tax Benefit
In fiscal 2022, we had an income tax benefit of $10.2 million, an effective tax rate of (31.1%), compared to an income tax benefit of $0.8 million, an effective tax rate of (1.1%), in fiscal 2021. The change was due primarily to a higher proportion of employment credits in relation to income before income taxes (48.7%) and our reserve for uncertain tax positions in fiscal 2021 (12.6%). These favorable factors were partially offset by a higher proportion of non-deductible losses as compared to non-taxable gains in fiscal 2021 on our investments in variable life insurance contracts used to support our non-qualified deferred compensation plan (“Non-Qualified Plans”) in relation to income before income taxes (12.6%), the benefit to our net operating loss carryback recorded in fiscal 2021 of our decision to accelerate payment of certain FICA taxes deferred pursuant to the CARES Act (6.3%), a tax shortfall in fiscal 2022 related to equity compensation (5.5%) and a higher proportion of state taxes expense in relation to income before income taxes (4.7%). (See Note 18 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Part IV, Item 15 of this report for further discussion of income taxes.)
Non-GAAP Measures
Adjusted net income and adjusted diluted net income per share are supplemental measures of our performance that are not required by or presented in accordance with GAAP. These non-GAAP measures may not be comparable to similarly-titled measures used by other companies and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. We calculate these non-GAAP measures by eliminating from net income and diluted net income per common share the impact of items we do not consider indicative of our ongoing operations. To reflect the potential impact of the conversion of our Series A preferred stock into common stock for the period that it was outstanding prior to the conversion on June 15, 2021, we exclude the preferred dividend and assume all convertible preferred shares have been converted into common stock. (See Note 15 of Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements in Part IV, Item 15 of this report for further discussion of our preferred stock.) We use these non-GAAP financial measures for financial and operational decision-making and as a means to evaluate period-to-period comparisons. Our inclusion of these adjusted measures should not be construed as an indication that our future results will be unaffected by unusual or infrequent items. In the future, we may incur expenses or generate income similar to the adjusted items.
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Following is a reconciliation from net income and diluted net income per common share to the corresponding adjusted measures (in thousands, except per share data):
| | | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | 2022 | 2021 | ||||
| | | | | | | |
| Net income available to common stockholders | | $ | 43,123 | | $ | 49,131 |
| Dividends on Series A preferred stock | | | — | | | 18,661 |
| Net income attributed to Series A preferred stock | | | — | | | 4,581 |
| COVID-19 related costs (1) | | — | | 4,917 | ||
| Impairment of assets and lease termination expenses | | | 31,387 | | | 18,139 |
| Acquisition-related contingent consideration, compensation and amortization expenses | | | 13,368 | | | 19,510 |
| Termination of interest rate swap | | | — | | | 2,354 |
| Uncertain tax positions | | | — | | | 7,139 |
| Tax effect of adjustments (2) | | (11,637) | | (11,679) | ||
| Adjusted net income | | $ | 76,241 | | $ | 112,753 |
| | | | | | | |
| Diluted net income per common share | | $ | 0.86 | | $ | 1.01 |
| Dividends on Series A preferred stock | | | — | | | 0.35 |
| Net income attributable to Series A preferred stock | | | — | | | 0.09 |
| Assumed impact of potential conversion of Series A preferred stock into common stock (3) | | | — | | | (0.08) |
| COVID-19 related costs (1) | | — | | 0.09 | ||
| Impairment of assets and lease termination expenses | | | 0.62 | | | 0.34 |
| Acquisition-related contingent consideration, compensation and amortization expenses | | | 0.27 | | | 0.37 |
| Termination of interest rate swap | | | — | | | 0.04 |
| Uncertain tax positions | | | — | | | 0.13 |
| Tax effect of adjustments (2) | | (0.23) | | | (0.22) | |
| Adjusted net income per share (4) | | $ | 1.51 | | $ | 2.13 |
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| (1) | Represents incremental costs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic such as additional sanitation, personal protective equipment, sick and vaccination pay, and healthcare benefits. During fiscal 2021, we recorded $4.9 million for these costs with approximately $4.6 million reflected in labor expenses and $0.3 million in other operating expenses. |
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| (2) | Based on the federal statutory rate and an estimated blended state tax rate, the tax effect on all adjustments assumes a 26% tax rate. |
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| (3) | Represents the impact of assuming the conversion of Series A preferred stock into common stock (0 and 4,431,140 shares for fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2021, respectively), resulting in an assumption of 50,414,160 and 51,959,879 weighted-average common shares outstanding for fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2021, respectively. |
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| (4) | Adjusted net income per share may not add due to rounding. |
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Fiscal 2023 Outlook
This discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as codified in Section 27A of the Securities Act, and Section 21E of the Exchange Act and should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements and related notes in Part IV, Item 15 of this report, the “Risk Factors” included in Part I, Item 1A of this report and the cautionary statements included throughout this report.
Based on recent trends and assuming no material operating or consumer disruptions, we anticipate total revenue for fiscal 2023 to be approximately $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion, with The Cheesecake Factory average sales per location reaching approximately $13 million. Including the 3.5% February 2023 price increase, we will have 10.5% pricing in The Cheesecake Factory menu, and we will evaluate the level of pricing for the summer menu based on inflationary trends.
During fiscal 2023, we currently estimate total inflation across our commodities, total labor (factoring in the latest trends in wage rates and channel mix, as well as in other components such as payroll taxes and benefits) and other operating costs and expenses to be in the mid-single digit range. However, there remains measurable risk associated with cost fluctuations driven by the current environment. We estimate preopening costs of approximately $24 million. Based on these factors, we expect fiscal 2023 net income margin of approximately 4% at the mid-point of the estimated revenue range.
We plan to open as many as 20 to 22 new restaurants in fiscal 2023, including five to six The Cheesecake Factory restaurants, five to six North Italia restaurants and 10 restaurants within our FRC business, which includes three to four Flower Child locations. We anticipate approximately $165 to $175 million in cash capital expenditures to support this level of unit development, as well as required maintenance on our restaurants. Restaurant opening dates may be impacted by supply chain challenges and permit approval delays.
Total revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2023 are expected to be approximately $850 million to $880 million. We anticipate commodity inflation of approximately 10% to 12% and expect labor inflation of approximately 6%. Based on these factors, we expect first quarter fiscal 2023 net income margin of approximately 3% to 3.5%.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
Our corporate financial objectives are to maintain a sufficiently strong and conservative balance sheet to support our operating initiatives and unit growth while maintaining financial flexibility to provide the financial resources necessary to protect and enhance the competitiveness of our restaurant and bakery brands and to provide a prudent level of financial capacity to manage the risks and uncertainties of conducting our business operations under various economic and industry cycles. Typically, cash flows generated from operating activities are our principal source of liquidity, which we use to finance our restaurant expansion plans, ongoing maintenance of our restaurants and bakery facilities and investment in our corporate and information technology infrastructures. However, given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our operations, during fiscal 2020 we increased borrowings under our then-existing credit facility and issued convertible preferred stock to increase our liquidity. During fiscal 2021, we used net proceeds from issuing convertible senior notes and additional common stock to fund the repurchase of the majority of our Series A preferred stock and the conversion of the remaining Series A preferred stock into common stock, simplifying our capital structure and eliminating future convertible preferred stock dividends. We also utilized a portion of the net proceeds to reduce borrowings under our then-existing credit facility.
Similar to many restaurant and retail chain store operations, we utilize operating lease arrangements for all of our restaurant locations. Accordingly, our lease arrangements reduce, to some extent, our capacity to utilize funded indebtedness in our capital structure. We are not limited to the use of lease arrangements as our only method of opening new restaurants. However, we believe our operating lease arrangements continue to provide appropriate leverage for our capital structure in a financially efficient manner.
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During fiscal 2022, our cash and cash equivalents decreased by $74.9 million to $114.8 million. The following table presents, for the periods indicated, a summary of our key cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities (in millions):
| | | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | Fiscal Year | ||||
| | 2022 | 2021 | ||||
| | | | | | | |
| Cash provided by operating activities | | $ | 161.9 | | $ | 213.0 |
| Additions to property and equipment | | | (112.5) | | | (66.9) |
| Acquisition-related deferred consideration and compensation | | | (18.3) | | | (17.0) |
| Convertible debt issuance, net of issuance cost | | | — | | | 334.9 |
| Common stock issuance, net of issuance cost | | | — | | | 167.1 |
| Borrowings on credit facility | | | 130.0 | | | — |
| Repayments on credit facility | | | (130.0) | | | (150.0) |
| Series A preferred stock cash-settled conversion | | | — | | | (443.8) |
| Series A preferred stock dividends paid | | | — | | | (18.7) |
| Proceeds from exercises of stock options | | | 0.1 | | | 24.8 |
| Common stock dividends paid | | | (42.3) | | | (0.3) |
| Treasury stock purchases | | | (63.1) | | | (5.8) |
Cash Provided by Operating Activities
Cash flows from operations decreased by $51.1 million from fiscal 2021 primarily due to lower net income, the timing of payroll disbursements in relation to the fiscal 2022 versus 2021 year-end dates, higher gift card redemptions and lower accrued incentive compensation. These factors were partially offset by collection of our fiscal 2020 net operating loss carryback refund in fiscal 2022, the payback in fiscal 2021 of payroll taxes that were deferred in fiscal 2020 under the CARES Act and higher non-cash impairment expense in fiscal 2022. Typically, our requirement for working capital has not been significant since our restaurant customers pay for their food and beverage purchases in cash or cash equivalents at the time of sale, and we are able to sell many of our restaurant inventory items before payment is due to the suppliers of such items.
Property and Equipment
Capital expenditures for new restaurants, including locations under development as of each fiscal year-end, were $55.1 million and $31.7 million for fiscal 2022 and 2021, respectively. Capital expenditures also included $51.8 million and $30.1 million for our existing restaurants and $5.6 million and $5.1 million for bakery and corporate capacity and infrastructure investments in fiscal 2022 and 2021, respectively.
We opened 13 restaurants in fiscal 2022 comprised of three The Cheesecake Factory, four North Italia, three Other FRC and three Other locations compared to 14 restaurants in fiscal 2021 comprised of two The Cheesecake Factory, six North Italia, four Other FRC and two Other locations. We expect to open as many as 20 to 22 new restaurants in fiscal 2023 across our portfolio of concepts. We anticipate approximately $165 to $175 million in capital expenditures to support this level of unit development, as well as required maintenance on our restaurants.
Acquisition-Related Deferred Consideration and Compensation
During fiscal 2022 and 2021, we made payments of $11.1 million and $17.0 million, respectively, for deferred consideration related to the FRC acquisition. During fiscal 2022, we also made a payment of $7.2 million for deferred consideration and contingent consideration related to the FRC acquisition.
Convertible Senior Notes
On June 15, 2021, we issued $345.0 million in aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes (“Notes”), which will mature on June 15, 2026, unless earlier repurchased, redeemed or converted. The net proceeds from the sale of the Notes were approximately $334.9 million after deducting issuance costs related to the Notes. At January 3, 2023, the conversion rate for the Notes was 13.0675 shares of common stock per $1,000 principal amount of the Notes, which represents a conversion price of approximately $76.53 per share of common stock. In connection with the cash dividend that was declared by our Board on February 16, 2023, on March 21, 2023 we will adjust the conversion rate (which is expected to increase) and the conversion price (which is expected to
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decrease) of the Notes in accordance with the terms. (See Note 10 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Part IV, Item 15 of this report for further discussion of the Notes.)
Common Stock Issuance
On June 15, 2021, we issued 3.125 million shares of our common stock for $175.0 million. In connection with the issuance, we incurred direct and incremental costs of $8.0 million.
Credit Facility
On October 6, 2022, we entered into a Fourth Amended and Restated Loan Agreement (the “Loan Agreement” and the revolving credit facility provided thereunder, the “Revolver Facility”). The Loan Agreement amends and restates in its entirety our prior credit agreement. The Revolver Facility, which terminates on October 6, 2027, provides us with revolving loan commitments that total $400 million, of which $50 million may be used for issuances of letters of credit. The Revolver Facility contains a commitment increase feature that, subject to certain conditions precedent, could provide for an additional $200 million in revolving loan commitments. Our obligations under the Revolver Facility are unsecured. Certain of our material subsidiaries have guaranteed our obligations under the Revolver Facility. During fiscal 2021, we utilized a portion of the net proceeds from our Notes and common share offerings to reduce the balance on our then-existing credit facility by $150.0 million. On October 6, 2022, we repaid the outstanding balance under the prior credit facility and borrowed the same amount on the Revolver Facility. As of January 3, 2023, we had net availability for borrowings of $238.5 million, based on a $130.0 million outstanding debt balance and $31.5 million in standby letters of credit under the Revolver Facility.
Under the Revolver Facility, we are subject to financial covenants, as well as to customary events of default that, if triggered, could result in acceleration of the maturity of the Revolver Facility. Subject to certain exceptions, the Revolver Facility also limits distributions with respect to our equity interests, such as cash dividends and share repurchases, based on a defined ratio, and also sets forth negative covenants that restrict indebtedness, liens, investments, sales of assets, fundamental changes and other matters. At January 3, 2023, we were in compliance with all covenants in effect at that date. (See Note 10 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Part IV, Item 15 of this report for further discussion of our long-term debt.)
Series A Preferred Stock
During the second quarter of fiscal 2021, we paid a cash dividend on our Series A preferred stock of $5.1 million. Additionally, during the second quarter of fiscal 2021, we paid $457.3 million in connection with the cash-settled conversion of 150,000 shares of our outstanding Series A preferred stock (effected through a repurchase agreement), and the share-settled conversion of the remaining 50,000 shares of our outstanding Series A preferred stock into 2,400,864 shares of our common stock, of which $13.6 million was deemed to be a dividend. (See Note 15 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Part IV, Item 15 of this report for further discussion of our preferred stock.)
Common Stock Dividends
Common stock dividends of $42.3 million and $0.3 million were paid in fiscal 2022 and 2021, respectively. The increase is primarily due to the resumption of our quarterly dividend in the second quarter of fiscal 2022 after the suspension that began in fiscal 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19 on our business and in conjunction with the terms of our Loan Agreement. As further discussed in Note 15 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Part IV, Item 15 of this report, in February 2023, our Board declared a quarterly dividend to be paid in March 2023. Future decisions to pay or to increase or decrease dividends are at the discretion of the Board and will be dependent on our operating performance, financial condition, capital expenditure requirements, limitations on cash distributions pursuant to the terms and conditions of the Loan Agreement and applicable law, and other such factors that the Board considers relevant.
Share Repurchases
On October 26, 2022, our Board increased the authorization to repurchase our common stock by 5.0 million shares to 61.0 million shares. Under this authorization, we have cumulatively repurchased 55.1 million shares at a total cost of $1,765.6 million through January 3, 2023. We repurchased 2.0 million shares at a cost of $63.1 million during fiscal 2022 compared to 0.1 million shares at a cost of $5.8 million fiscal 2021. This increase is primarily due to the resumption of our share repurchase program in the
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second quarter of fiscal 2022 after the suspension that began in fiscal 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19 on our business and in conjunction with the terms of our Loan Agreement.
Our objectives with regard to share repurchases have been to offset the dilution to our shares outstanding that results from equity compensation grants and to supplement our earnings per share growth. Our share repurchase program does not have an expiration date, does not require us to purchase a specific number of shares and may be modified, suspended or terminated at any time. Future decisions to repurchase shares are at the discretion of the Board and are based on several factors, including current and forecasted operating cash flows, capital needs associated with new restaurant development and maintenance of existing locations, dividend payments, debt levels and cost of borrowing, obligations associated with the FRC acquisition, our share price and current market conditions. The timing and number of shares repurchased are also subject to legal constraints and financial covenants under our credit facility that limit share repurchases based on a defined ratio. (See Note 15 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Part IV, Item 15 of this report for further discussion of our repurchase authorization and methods.)
Contractual Obligations and Commercial Commitments
The following table summarizes our undiscounted contractual obligations and commercial commitments as of January 3, 2023 (amounts in millions):
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Payment Due by Period | ||||||||||||||
| | | | Less than | | | | | More than | |||||||
| | Total | 1 Year | 1‑3 Years | 4‑5 Years | 5 Years | ||||||||||
| Contractual obligations | | | | | | ||||||||||
| Recorded contractual obligations: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Operating leases liabilities (1) | | $ | 2,021.0 | | $ | 142.8 | | $ | 267.2 | | $ | 271.4 | | $ | 1,339.6 |
| Long-term debt | | 468.0 | | — | | — | | 468.0 | | — | |||||
| Acquisition-related deferred consideration | | | 11.3 | | | 11.3 | | | — | | | — | | | — |
| Uncertain tax positions (2) | | 3.8 | | — | | 3.8 | | — | | — | |||||
| Unrecorded contractual obligations: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Purchase obligations (3) | | | 129.9 | | | 112.1 | | | 16.4 | | | 1.0 | | | 0.4 |
| Real estate obligations (4) | | 252.4 | | 75.9 | | 28.8 | | 14.3 | | 133.4 | |||||
| Total | | $ | 2,886.4 | | $ | 342.1 | | $ | 316.2 | | $ | 754.7 | | $ | 1,473.4 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Other commercial commitments | | | | | | | | | | | |||||
| Standby letters of credit | | $ | 31.5 | | $ | 31.5 | | $ | — | | $ | — | | $ | — |
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| (1) | Includes $845.1 million related to options to extend lease terms that are reasonably certain of being exercised. (See Note 11 in Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Part IV, Item 15 of this report for discussion of leases.) |
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| (2) | Represents liability for uncertain tax positions. (See Note 18 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Part IV, Item 15 of this report for further discussion of income taxes.) |
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| (3) | Includes obligations for inventory purchases, equipment purchases, information technology and other miscellaneous commitments. Amounts exclude agreements that are cancelable without significant penalty. |
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 |
|---|---|---|
| (4) | Real estate obligations include construction commitments, net of up-front landlord construction contributions, and legally binding minimum lease payments for leases signed but not yet commenced. Amounts exclude agreements that are cancelable without significant penalty. |
The FRC acquisition agreement also included a contingent consideration provision which is payable annually from 2022 through 2027 and is based on achievement of revenue and profitability targets for the FRC brands other than North Italia and Flower Child with considerations made in the event we undergo a change in control or divest any FRC brand (other than North Italia and Flower Child) during the five years after Closing. The liability for this contingent consideration provision was $28.6 million at January 3, 2023. See Note 2 in Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Part IV, Item 15 of this report for discussion of the fair value measurement for this liability. We are also required to provide financing to FRC in an amount sufficient to support achievement of these targets during the five years after Closing.
Cash Flow Outlook
We believe that our cash and cash equivalents, combined with expected cash flows provided by operations and available borrowings under the Revolver Facility, will provide us with adequate liquidity for the next 12 months and the foreseeable future.
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As of January 3, 2023, we had no financing transactions, arrangements or other relationships with any unconsolidated entities or related parties. Additionally, we had no financing arrangements involving synthetic leases or trading activities involving commodity contracts.
Critical Accounting Estimates
Critical accounting policies are those we believe are most important to portraying our financial condition and results of operations and also require the greatest amount of subjective or complex judgments by management. Judgments and uncertainties regarding the application of these policies may result in materially different amounts being reported under various conditions or using different assumptions. We consider the following policies to be the most critical in understanding the judgment that is involved in preparing our consolidated financial statements.
Contingent Consideration and Compensation Liability
The Acquisition agreement included a contingent consideration provision, a portion of which was considered part of the acquisition consideration and the remainder of which was considered future compensation expense. This contingent consideration and compensation is payable annually from 2022 through 2027 and is based on achievement of revenue and profitability targets for the FRC brands other than North Italia and Flower Child. The fair value of the contingent consideration and compensation liability is determined utilizing a Monte Carlo model based on estimated future revenues, margins, volatility factors and discount rates, among other variables and estimates and has no minimum or maximum payment. The undiscounted range of outcomes per the Monte Carlo model was $0 to $276.0 million at January 3, 2023 and $0 to $204.0 million at December 28, 2021. During fiscal 2022, the fair value of the contingent consideration and compensation liability increased by $4.7 million to $28.6 million due to an $8.3 million increase in the fair value primarily stemming from a change in the volatility factors, as well as an increase in fiscal 2022 revenues and estimated future revenues utilized in the calculation and amortization, partially offset by a payment of $7.2 million per the FRC acquisition agreement. The fair value of the contingent consideration and compensation liability is highly subjective, and results could change materially if different estimates and assumptions were used.
Indefinite-Lived Intangible Assets
Goodwill and other indefinite-lived intangible assets are not amortized and are tested for impairment annually as of the first day of our fiscal fourth quarter or on an interim basis if events or changes in circumstances between annual tests indicate a potential impairment. First, we determine if, based on qualitative factors, it is more likely than not that an impairment exists. Factors considered include, but are not limited to, historical financial performance, assumptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic, wage, product and services inflation, competitive environment, macroeconomic and industry conditions, results of prior impairment tests and share price performance. Any adverse change in these factors could have a significant impact on the recoverability of these assets and could have a material impact on our consolidated financial statements. If the qualitative assessment indicates that it is more likely than not that an impairment exists, then a quantitative assessment is performed.
The quantitative assessments require the use of estimates and assumptions regarding future cash flows and asset fair values. For the goodwill impairment test, the estimated fair value of the reporting units is determined using a blend of the income approach using a discounted cash flow analysis and the market capitalization approach. The fair value of the trade names and trademarks is estimated using the relief from royalty method. Key assumptions include projected revenue growth and operating expenses, discount rates, royalty rates and other factors that could affect fair value or otherwise indicate potential impairment. Estimates of revenue growth and operating expenses are based on internal projections and consider historical performance and forecasted growth, including assumptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the cost environment and macroeconomic and industry conditions. The discount rate is based on the estimated cost of capital that reflects the risk profile of the related business. These estimates, as well as the selection of comparable companies and valuation multiples used in the market approaches, are subjective, and our ability to realize future cash flows and asset fair values is affected by factors such as changes in economic conditions and operating performance. These fair value assessments could change materially if different estimates and assumptions were used.
We did not record any impairment charges related to indefinite-lived intangible assets in fiscal 2022 or 2021. We recorded impairment charges related to indefinite-lived intangible assets of $180.8 million in fiscal 2020. (See Note 1 in Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Part IV, Item 15 of this report for further discussion of these impairments.)
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Long-Lived Assets
We assess the potential impairment of our long-lived assets on an annual basis or whenever events or changes in circumstances indicate that the carrying value of the assets or asset group may not be recoverable. Factors considered include, but are not limited to, negative cash flow, significant underperformance relative to historical or projected future operating results, significant changes in the manner in which an asset is being used, an expectation that an asset will be disposed of significantly before the end of its previously estimated useful life and significant negative industry or economic trends.
Assessing whether impairment testing is warranted and, if so, determining the amount of expense require the use of estimates and assumptions regarding future cash flows and asset fair values. Key assumptions include projected revenue growth and operating expenses, as well as forecasting asset useful lives and selecting an appropriate discount rate. Estimates of revenue growth and operating expenses are based on internal projections and consider the restaurant's historical performance, the local market economics and the business environment. The discount rate is based on the yield curve rate for U.S. Treasury securities with a duration that coincides with the period covered by the cash flows. These estimates are subjective and our ability to realize future cash flows and asset fair values is affected by factors such as changes in economic conditions and operating performance.
In fiscal 2022, we recorded $31.4 million of expense primarily related to the impairment of three The Cheesecake Factory, one Other FRC and three Other restaurants. In fiscal 2021, we recorded $16.3 million of expense primarily related to the impairment of long-lived assets for three The Cheesecake Factory and two Other restaurants. In fiscal 2020, we recorded $36.2 million of expense primarily related to the impairment of one The Cheesecake Factory, one North Italia, two Other FRC and six Other restaurants, as well as lease termination costs and accelerated depreciation for one The Cheesecake Factory and seven Other restaurants. (See Note 1 in Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Part IV, Item 15 of this report for further discussion related to long-lived asset impairment.)
Leases
Lease terms include the build-out period for our leases where no rent payments are typically due under the terms of the lease, as well as options to renew when we deem we have significant economic incentive to exercise the extension. When determining if we have a significant economic incentive, we consider relevant factors, such as contractual, asset, entity and market-based considerations. Option periods are included in the lease term for the majority of our leases. Termination rights have not been factored into the lease terms since based on our probability assessment we are reasonably certain we will not terminate our leases.
We cannot determine the interest rate implicit in our leases because we do not have access to the lessor’s estimated residual value or the amount of the lessor’s deferred initial direct costs. Therefore, we use our incremental borrowing rate as the discount rate for our leases. Our incremental borrowing rate for a lease is the rate of interest we would have to pay on a collateralized basis to borrow an amount equal to the lease payments under similar terms. Because we do not generally borrow on a collateralized basis, we derive an appropriate incremental borrowing rate using the interest rate we pay on our non-collateralized borrowings, adjusted for the amount of the lease payments, the lease term and the effect of designating specific collateral with a value equal to the unpaid lease payments for that lease.
The reasonably certain lease term and the incremental borrowing rate for each restaurant location require judgment by management and can impact the classification and accounting for a lease as operating or finance, the value of the operating lease asset and liability and the term over which leasehold improvements for each restaurant are depreciated. These judgments may produce materially different amounts of operating lease assets and liabilities, rent expense and interest expense than would be reported if different assumptions were used.
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Income Taxes
We compute income taxes based on estimates of our federal, state and foreign tax liabilities. Our estimates include, but are not limited to, effective state and local income tax rates, allowable tax credits, depreciation expense allowable for tax purposes, the tax deductibility of certain other items and applicable valuation allowances on deferred tax assets. Our estimates are made based on the best available information at the time we prepare our consolidated financial statements. In making our estimates, we consider the impact of legislative and judicial developments. As these developments evolve, we update our estimates, which, in turn, may result in adjustments to our effective tax rate.
We anticipate realization of a significant portion of our deferred tax assets through the reversal of existing deferred tax liabilities. Realization of some of our deferred tax assets, in particular those which have statutorily limited time periods within which they must be used, is dependent on generating sufficient taxable income in the relevant jurisdictions prior to expiration of these time periods. Although realization is not assured, management believes it is more likely than not that our deferred tax assets, net of valuation allowances, will be realized. The amount of deferred tax assets considered realizable could be reduced, however, if estimates of future earnings and taxable income in the carryforward periods are reduced.
Uncertain tax positions taken or expected to be taken in a tax return are recognized (or derecognized) in the financial statements when it is more likely than not that the position would be sustained on its technical merits upon examination by tax authorities, taking into account available administrative remedies and litigation. Assessment of uncertain tax positions requires significant judgments relating to the amounts, timing and likelihood of resolution.
Recent Accounting Pronouncements
See Note 1 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in Part IV, Item 15 of this report for a summary of new accounting standards.