ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) FY 2023 MD&A

Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.

The following discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations should be read in conjunction with our consolidated historical financial statements and the notes to those statements that appear elsewhere in this report. Our discussion contains forward-looking statements based upon current expectations that involve risks and uncertainties, such as our plans, objectives, expectations and intentions. Actual results and the timing of events could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of a number of factors, including those set forth under the section titled “Part 1. Item 1A. Risk Factors” elsewhere in this report. The discussion of our financial condition and changes in our results of operations, liquidity and capital resources for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022 (“2022”) compared with the fiscal year ended January 1, 2022 (“2021”) has been omitted from this Form 10-K, but are included in “Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” of our Form 10-K for 2022, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on February 28, 2023. Amounts are presented in thousands, except per share data, unless otherwise stated.

Management Overview

A high-level summary of our financial results and other highlights from 2023 includes:

•Net sales during 2023 were $11.3 billion, an increase of 1.2% compared with 2022, driven by new store openings and favorable product mix, partially offset by a 0.3% decline in comparable store sales.

•Gross profit margin for 2023 was 40.1% of Net sales, a decrease of 414 basis points compared with 2022. This decrease was primarily due to higher product costs, inventory-related charges and elevated supply chain costs.

•Operating income for 2023 was $114.4 million, a decrease of $555.9 million from 2022. As a percentage of Net sales, operating income was 1.0%, a decrease of 500 basis points compared with 2022. The increase in Selling, general and administrative (“SG&A”) costs was primarily driven by increased labor-related costs and occupancy expenses.

•Cash flow from operations was $287.4 million during 2023, a decrease of 61.0% compared with 2022, primarily due to lower Net income.

•Diluted earnings per share (“Diluted EPS”) was $0.50 during 2023 compared with $7.65 in 2022.

Refer to “Results of Operations” and “Liquidity and Capital Resources” for further details on our results.

Business and Risk Update

We have been executing various initiatives to improve the customer experience, expand margins and drive consistent execution for both professional and do-it-yourself (“DIY”) customers, including:

•Continued refinement of a demand-based assortment, leveraging purchase and search history from our common catalog

•Advancement towards optimizing our footprint by market to drive share, repurpose our in-market store and asset base and streamline our distribution network

•Progress in the implementation of a more efficient end-to-end supply chain to deliver our broad assortment of inventory

•Continued negotiations with vendors on strategic sourcing and pricing to help mitigate inflationary pressures

•Rationalization of product assortment

•Investment in our frontline workforce

•Incremental investments in store and distribution center distribution

As announced in the third quarter of 2023, we initiated a comprehensive operational and strategic review of our business to help improve execution and position Advance for long-term success and increased shareholder value. We have identified and are pursuing cost reductions that we expect will generate at least $150 million in savings on an annualized basis, of which, we intend to invest approximately $50 million in employee compensation and training with a clear focus on improving the retention of our frontline team members. In addition, we recently launched an initiative to eliminate costs related to our indirect spend by an additional $50 million on an annualized basis We also announced the potential sales of our Worldpac business and the Canadian portion of our Carquest business. Our operational and strategic review progress is ongoing.

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Industry Update

Operating within the automotive aftermarket industry, we are influenced by a number of general macroeconomic factors, many of which are similar to those affecting the overall retail industry. In addition to the “Business and Risk Update” section included within Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, these factors include, but are not limited to:

•Inflationary pressures, including logistics and labor

•Global supply chain disruptions

•Rising fuel costs

•Miles driven

•Unemployment rates

•Consumer confidence and purchasing power

•Competition

•Changes in new car sales

•Vehicle manufacturer warranties

•Average age of vehicles in operation

•Economic and geopolitical uncertainty

•Deferral of elective automotive maintenance and improvements in new car quality

•Increased foreign currency exchange volatility

While these factors tend to fluctuate, we remain confident in the long-term growth prospects for the automotive parts industry.

Results of Operations

The following table sets forth certain of our operating data expressed as a percentage of net sales for the periods indicated.

Note 1: Table amounts may not foot due to rounding.

Net Sales

Net sales for 2023 were $11.3 billion, an increase of $132.9 million, or 1.2%, compared with 2022, and was primarily driven by new store openings and favorable product mix, partially offset by a decline in units sold. Category growth was led by brakes and batteries. Comparable store sales decreased 0.3% due to a decline in the DIY business.

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We calculate comparable store sales based on the change in store or branch sales starting once a location has been open for 13 complete four-week periods (approximately one year) and by including e-commerce sales. Sales to independently-owned Carquest stores are excluded from our comparable store sales. Acquired stores are included in our comparable store sales once the stores have completed 13 complete accounting periods following the acquisition date. We include sales from relocated stores in comparable store sales from the original date of opening. Comparable sales is intended only as supplemental information and is not a substitute for Net sales presented in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”).

Gross Profit

Gross profit in 2023 was $4.52 billion, or 40.1% of Net sales, compared with $4.93 billion, or 44.2% of Net sales in 2022, a decrease of 414 basis points. Gross profit as a percentage of Net sales was negatively impacted by higher product costs not fully covered by pricing actions of $180.9 million, a change in estimate associated with inventory reserves and other inventory-related charges of $143.5 million as well as elevated supply chain expenses. Gross margin decline was partially offset by favorable product mix.

Selling, General and Administrative Expenses

SG&A for 2023 was $4.41 billion, or 39.1% of Net sales, compared with $4.26 billion, or 38.2% of Net sales for 2022, an increase of 85 basis points. This increase as a percentage of Net sales was primarily driven by increased labor-related costs and occupancy expenses.

Interest Expense

Interest expense for 2023 was $88.1 million, an increase of $37.0 million compared with 2022. This increase was primarily due to interest incurred on higher borrowings against our revolver as well as issuances of senior unsecured notes in 2023. Refer to Note 6. Long-term Debt and Fair Value of Financial Instruments of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements included herein for further details.

Provision for Income Taxes

Our Provision for income taxes for 2023 was $2.1 million compared with $140.0 million for 2022, a favorable change of $137.9 million primarily due to a decrease in taxable income. Our effective tax rate was 6.6% for 2023 and 23.2% for 2022. In 2023, the rate decreased compared with prior year primarily due to a tax benefit resulting from the expiration of statute of limitations for certain tax years in multiple states as well as enhanced utilization of tax credits in the current year and a discrete charge related to share-based compensation.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

Overview

Our primary cash requirements necessary to maintain our current operations include payroll and benefits, inventory purchases, contractual obligations, capital expenditures, payment of income taxes, funding of initiatives under our strategic business plan and other operational priorities, including payment of interest on our long-term debt. Historically, we have also used available funds to repay borrowings under our credit facility, to periodically repurchase shares of our common stock under our share repurchase program, to pay our quarterly cash dividend and for acquisitions; however, depending on the priorities of our business and in consideration of ongoing uncertainties related to general global macroeconomic conditions, our future uses of cash may differ, including with respect to the weight we place on the preservation of cash and liquidity, degree of investment in our business and other capital allocation factors.

Typically, we have funded our cash requirements primarily through cash generated from operations, supplemented by borrowings under our credit facilities and notes offerings as needed. We believe funds generated from our expected results of operations, available cash and cash equivalents and available borrowings under our credit facility will be sufficient to fund our obligations for the next year. We also believe such funds, cash and available borrowings, together with our ability to generate cash through credit facilities and notes offerings as needed, will be sufficient to fund our obligations long-term. Cash requirements for obligations next year and beyond are discussed in the “Contractual and Off Balance Sheet Obligations” section below.

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Share Repurchases

In August 2019, our Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program. Under the program, we may periodically repurchase shares of our common stock at market prices through open market purchases effected through a broker dealer and in privately negotiated transactions. The Board of Directors may increase or otherwise modify, renew, suspend or terminate the share repurchase program without prior notice. On February 8, 2022, our Board of Directors authorized an additional $1.0 billion toward our share repurchase program. Previously, in April 2021 and November 2019, our Board of Directors authorized $1.0 billion and $700.0 million for our share repurchase program.

During 2023, we did not repurchase any shares of our common stock in connection with our share repurchase program. During 2022, we repurchased 3.0 million shares of our common stock at an aggregate cost of $598.2 million, or an average price of $201.88 per share, under our share repurchase program. Given macroeconomic uncertainties and our focus on strengthening our balance sheet, we expect to continue our pause on share repurchases in 2024, but may resume share repurchases in the future.

We had $947.3 million remaining under our share repurchase program as of December 30, 2023. Refer to “Item 5. Market for Registrant’s Common Equity, Related Stockholder Matters and Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities” for further details on our share repurchase program.

Capital Expenditures

Our primary capital requirements have been the funding of our investments in information technology and supply chain, e-commerce and maintenance of existing stores and branches. We lease approximately 84% of our stores and branches.

Our capital expenditures were $242.4 million in 2023, a decrease of $181.7 million from 2022, related to the decrease of spend in information technology and supply chain as well as fewer store openings from 2022 to 2023.

Our future capital requirements will depend in large part on the timing or number of the investments we make in information technology and supply chain network initiatives and existing stores and new store development (leased and owned locations) within a given year. In 2024, we anticipate that our capital expenditures related to such investments will range from $200 million to $250 million but may vary with business conditions.

Analysis of Cash Flows

The following table summarizes our cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities:

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Operating Activities

In 2023, Net cash provided by operating activities decreased $449.2 million to $287.4 million. The net decrease in cash flows provided by operating activities compared with the prior year was primarily driven by lower Net income and higher accounts receivable. Refer to “Results of Operations” for further details on our results.

Investing Activities

In 2023, Net cash used in investing activities decreased $189.0 million to $235.5 million compared with 2022. This decrease was attributable to reduced purchases of property and equipment due to the completion of back office integration in the prior year, partially offset by investments in new store openings.

Financing Activities

In 2023, Net cash provided by financing activities increased by $810.0 million to $189.3 million compared with 2022. The net increase in cash provided by financing activities was attributable to a reduction in share repurchases of our common stock of $604.0 million and the incremental net proceeds of $251 million from the issuances of senior unsecured notes in 2023 compared with 2022.

Our Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend since 2006. Any payments of dividends in the future will be at the discretion of our Board of Directors and will depend upon our results of operations, cash flows, capital requirements and other factors deemed relevant by our Board of Directors.

Long-Term Debt

On March 9, 2023, we issued our 5.90% senior unsecured notes due 2026 (the “2026 Notes”) at 99.94% of the principal amount of $300.0 million and our 5.95% senior unsecured notes due 2028 (the “2028 Notes”) at 99.92% of the principal amount of $300.0 million. The 2026 Notes and 2028 Notes bear interest at a rate of 5.90% and 5.95%, respectively, and are payable semi-annually in arrears in March and September. Proceeds from our 2026 and 2028 Notes were utilized to make repayments on our revolving facility and supplement operational and capital expenditures.

For additional information on transactions entered into relating to long-term debt during the fifty-two weeks ended December 30, 2023, refer to Note 6. Long-term Debt and Fair Value of Financial Instruments of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements included herein.

As of March 12, 2024, we had a credit rating from S&P of BB+ and from Moody’s Investor Service of Baa3. The current outlooks by S&P and Moody’s were stable and negative, respectively. The current pricing grid used to determine our borrowing rate under our revolving credit facility is based on our credit ratings. If our credit ratings further decline, it would negatively impact our interest rate, and our access to additional financing on favorable terms may be limited. In addition, further decline in our credit ratings would likely reduce the attractiveness of our supplier finance programs, whereby our suppliers are provided financing arrangements based on our credit rating. This could result in significantly lower supplier or bank participation in those programs. Following the downgrade in our credit rating from S&P, certain banks reduced participation in our programs. This capacity has been substantially replaced with new participating banks as well as existing participating banks providing increased capacity. Lower participation in our supplier payment programs would shorten our payable terms, resulting in an increase in our working capital requirements, and may have a material negative impact on our liquidity or capital resources.

With respect to all senior unsecured notes for which Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (“Issuer”) is an issuer or provides a full and unconditional guarantee, Advance Stores, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Issuer, serves as the guarantor (“Guarantor Subsidiary”). The subsidiary guarantees related to our senior unsecured notes are full and unconditional and joint and several, and there are no restrictions on the ability of the Issuer to obtain funds from its Guarantor Subsidiary. Our captive insurance subsidiary, an insignificant wholly-owned subsidiary of the Issuer, does not serve as guarantor of our senior unsecured notes.

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Contractual and Off Balance Sheet Obligations

We enter into operating leases for certain store locations, distribution centers, office spaces, equipment and vehicles. Our property leases generally contain renewal and escalation clauses and other concessions. These provisions are considered in our calculation of our minimum lease payments that are recognized as expense on a straight-line basis over the applicable lease term. Any lease payments that are based upon an existing index or rate are included in our minimum lease payment calculations. As of December 30, 2023, our operating lease obligations were $2.66 billion. As of December 30, 2023, our long-term debt, consisting of senior unsecured notes with varying maturities through 2032, was $1.8 billion. Future interest payable related to long-term debt was $380.0 million as of December 30, 2023. As part of our normal operations, we enter into purchase commitments primarily for the purchase of goods or services that are enforceable, legally binding and specify all significant terms, including fixed or minimum quantities to be purchased; fixed, minimum or variable price provisions; and the approximate timing of the transaction. As of December 30, 2023, our purchase commitments were $133.0 million.

On February 27, 2023, we entered into Amendment No. 1 (“Amendment No. 1”) to the Credit Agreement, dated November 9, 2021, with Advance Auto Parts, Inc., as Borrower, Advance Stores Company, Incorporated, as a Guarantor, the lenders party thereto, and Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent (“2021 Credit Agreement”). Amendment No. 1 extends the maturity date of the 2021 Credit Agreement by one year from November 9, 2026, to November 9, 2027. Amendment No. 1 also replaces an adjusted LIBOR benchmark rate with a Term Secured Overnight Financing Rate benchmark rate, as adjusted by an increase of ten basis points, plus the applicable margin under the 2021 Credit Agreement. Amendment No. 1 made no other material changes to the terms of the 2021 Credit Agreement. On August 21, 2023, we entered into Amendment No. 2 (“Amendment No. 2”) to the 2021 Credit Agreement in order to amend certain financial covenants related to the Consolidated Coverage Ratio (as defined therein), and on November 20, 2023, we entered into Amendment No. 3 (“Amendment No. 3”) to the 2021 Credit Agreement in order to further amend financial covenants related to the Consolidated Coverage Ratio. Pursuant to Amendment No. 2 and Amendment No. 3, we will not permit the Consolidated Coverage Ratio to be less than (a) 1.75 to 1.00 for each period of four fiscal quarters ending on October 7, 2023 through and including the period of four fiscal quarters ending on October 5, 2024, (b) 2.00 to 1.00 for each period of four fiscal quarters ending on December 28, 2024 through and including the period of four fiscal quarters ending on October 4, 2025 and (c) 2.25 to 1.00 for each period of four fiscal quarters ending after October 4, 2025. Amendment No. 2. and Amendment No. 3 made no other material changes to the terms of the 2021 Credit Agreement. On February 26, 2024, we entered into Amendment No. 4 (“Amendment No. 4”) to the Credit Agreement dated November 9, 2021, with Advance Auto Parts, Inc., as Borrower, Advance Stores Company, Incorporated, as a Guarantor, the lenders party thereto, and Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent to enable certain addbacks to the definition of Consolidated EBITDA contained therein for specific write-downs of inventory and vendor receivables. Amendment No. 4 also updated certain limitations on future incurrences of other indebtedness and liens, replacing the cap thereon of 10% of consolidated net tangible assets with $400 million, and eliminated the $250 million basket for accounts receivable securitization transactions. Amendment No. 4 made no other material changes to the terms of the 2021 Credit Agreement.

In addition to our Consolidated Coverage Ratio requirement, we are required to maintain a maximum leverage ratio of 3.75 to 1.00. Our compliance with these covenants will depend upon achieving our financial targets including improvements in operating income. As of December 30, 2023, giving consideration to the amendments to our 2021 Credit Agreement, we were in compliance with the financial covenants required thereby. We currently expect to be in compliance with these financial covenants for the next 12 months. However, risk of noncompliance increases if our financial performance worsens or we are required to increase borrowings to fund operations. If we are not in compliance with the financial covenants required by our 2021 Credit Agreement, and cannot timely secure an amendment or waiver thereof, we would be in default of our 2021 Credit Agreement and our outstanding senior unsecured notes, which would have a material adverse impact on our financial condition.

Critical Accounting Policies

Our financial statements have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. Our discussion and analysis of the financial condition and results of operations are based on these financial statements. The preparation of these financial statements requires the application of accounting policies in addition to certain estimates and judgments by our management. Our estimates and judgments are based on currently available information, historical results and other assumptions we believe are reasonable. Actual results could differ materially from these estimates.

The preparation of our financial statements included the following significant estimates and exercise of judgment.

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Vendor Incentives

We receive incentives in the form of reductions to amounts owed and/or payments from vendors related to volume rebates and other promotional considerations. Many of these incentives are under agreements with terms in excess of one year, while others are negotiated on an annual basis or less. Advertising allowances received as a reimbursement of specific, incremental and identifiable costs incurred to promote a vendor’s products are included as an offset to SG&A when the cost is incurred. Volume rebates and vendor promotional allowances that do not meet the requirements for offsetting in SG&A and that are earned based on inventory purchases are initially recorded as a reduction to inventory. These deferred amounts are recorded as a reduction to Cost of sales as the inventory is sold.

Vendor promotional allowances provided as a reimbursement of specific, incremental and identifiable costs incurred to promote a vendor’s products are included as an offset to SG&A when the cost is incurred if the fair value of that benefit can be reasonably estimated. Certain of our vendor agreements contain purchase volume incentives that provide for increased funding when graduated purchase volumes are met. Amounts accrued throughout the year could be impacted if actual purchase volumes differ from projected annual purchase volumes. Periodic assessments of the accruals are performed to determine the appropriateness of the estimate and are adjusted accordingly.

Amounts received or receivable from vendors that are not yet earned are reflected initially as a reduction to inventory, which subsequently is recorded to Cost of sales. Our estimate of the portion of deferred revenue that will be realized within one year of the balance sheet date is included in Other current liabilities. Earned amounts that are receivable from vendors are included in Receivables, net, except for that portion expected to be received after one year, which is included in Other assets, net. We regularly review the receivables from vendors to ensure they are able to meet their obligations. Historically, the change in our reserve for receivables related to vendor funding has not been significant.

Self-Insurance Reserves

Our self-insurance reserves consist of the estimated exposure for claims filed, claims incurred but not yet reported and projected future claims, and are established using actuarial methods followed in the insurance industry and our historical claims experience. Specific factors include, but are not limited to, assumptions about health care costs, the severity of accidents, the incidence of illness and the average size of claims. Generally, claims for automobile and general liability and workers’ compensation take several years to settle. We classify the portion of our self-insurance reserves that is not expected to be settled within one year in Other long-term liabilities.

While we do not expect the amounts ultimately paid to differ significantly from our estimates, our self-insurance reserves and corresponding Cost of sales and SG&A could be affected if future claim experience differs significantly from historical trends and actuarial assumptions. A 10% change in our self-insurance liabilities at December 30, 2023 would result in a change in expense of approximately $15.0 million for 2023.

Excess and Obsolete Inventory Reserves

In connection with a strategic and operational review of the business, we reviewed the rationalization of product assortment and planned decisive actions related to inventory. As a result, we made a change in our estimate of excess inventory reserves resulting in an increase to Cost of sales of approximately $116 million. Our excess and obsolete inventory reserve assessment includes analyzing our inventory at the SKU level by assessing each SKU quantity based on years on hand, the stage within the product lifecycle the SKU is assigned and sales history. From this data analysis, our excess and obsolete inventory is identified, analyzed and compared against our reserve. Additionally, from time to time, specific SKUs may be identified as excess and/or obsolete for which a reserve will be recognized.

We classify each product into a product lifecycle category: introduction, expansion, saturation, reduction and disposition. This assessment is routinely performed and includes, but is not limited to, the analysis of anticipated, historical and actual demand; and changes in customer preferences. SKU-level classifications are updated as warranted.

New Accounting Pronouncements

For a description of recently adopted and issued accounting standards, including the expected dates of adoption and estimated effects, if any, on our consolidated financial statements, see “Recently Issued Accounting Pronouncements” in Note 2. Significant Accounting Policies, of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements included herein.

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